Oceanic sinks for atmospheric CO2

There is approximately 50 times more inorganic carbon in the global ocean than in the atmosphere. On time scales of decades to millions of years, the interaction between these two geophysical fluids determines atmospheric CO₂ levels. During glacial periods, for example, the ocean serves as the major sink for atmospheric CO₂, while during glacial–interglacial transitions, it is a source of CO₂ to the atmosphere. The mechanisms responsible for determining the sign of the net exchange of CO₂ between the ocean and the atmosphere remain unresolved. There is evidence that during glacial periods, phytoplankton primary productivity increased, leading to an enhanced sedimentation of particulate organic carbon into the ocean interior. The stimulation of primary production in glacial episodes can be correlated with increased inputs of nutrients limiting productivity, especially aeolian iron. Iron directly enhances primary production in high nutrient (nitrate and phosphate) regions of the ocean, of which the Southern Ocean is the most important. This trace element can also enhance nitrogen fixation, and thereby indirectly stimulate primary production throughout the low nutrient regions of the central ocean basins. While the export flux of organic carbon to the ocean interior was enhanced during glacial periods, this process does not fully account for the sequestration of atmospheric CO₂. Heterotrophic oxidation of the newly formed organic carbon, forming weak acids, would have hydrolyzed CaCO₃ in the sediments, increasing thereby oceanic alkalinity which, in turn, would have promoted the drawdown of atmospheric CO₂. This latter mechanism is consistent with the stable carbon isotope pattern derived from air trapped in ice cores. The oceans have also played a major role as a sink for up to 30% of the anthropogenic CO₂ produced during the industrial revolution. In large part this is due to CO₂ solution in the surface ocean; however, some, poorly quantified fraction is a result of increased new production due to anthropogenic inputs of combined N, P and Fe. Based on ‘circulation as usual’, models predict that future anthropogenic CO₂ inputs to the atmosphere will, in part, continue to be sequestered in the ocean. Human intervention (large-scale Fe fertilization; direct CO₂ burial in the deep ocean) could increase carbon sequestration in the oceans, but could also result in unpredicted environmental perturbations. Changes in the oceanic thermohaline circulation as a result of global climate change would greatly alter the predictions of C sequestration that are possible on a ‘circulation as usual’ basis.     

Observing climate change trends in ocean biogeochemistry: when and where

Understanding the influence of anthropogenic forcing on the marine biosphere is a high priority. Climate change‐driven trends need to be accurately assessed and detected in a timely manner. As part of the effort towards detection of long‐term trends, a network of ocean observatories and time series stations provide high quality data for a number of key parameters, such as pH, oxygen concentration or primary production (PP). Here, we use an ensemble of global coupled climate models to assess the temporal and spatial scales over which observations of eight biogeochemically relevant variables must be made to robustly detect a long‐term trend. We find that, as a global average, continuous time series are required for between 14 (pH) and 32 (PP) years to distinguish a climate change trend from natural variability. Regional differences are extensive, with low latitudes and the Arctic generally needing shorter time series (<~30 years) to detect trends than other areas. In addition, we quantify the ‘footprint’ of existing and planned time series stations, that is the area over which a station is representative of a broader region. Footprints are generally largest for pH and sea surface temperature, but nevertheless the existing network of observatories only represents 9–15% of the global ocean surface. Our results present a quantitative framework for assessing the adequacy of current and future ocean observing networks for detection and monitoring of climate change‐driven responses in the marine ecosystem.     

Dramatic Variability of the Carbonate System at a Temperate Coastal Ocean Site (Beaufort,North Carolina,USA) Is Regulated by Physical and Biogeochemical Processes on Multiple Timescales

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) from anthropogenic sources is acidifying marine environments resulting in potentially dramatic consequences for the physical, chemical and biological functioning of these ecosystems. If current trends continue, mean ocean pH is expected to decrease by ~0.2 units over the next ~50 years. Yet, there is also substantial temporal variability in pH and other carbon system parameters in the ocean resulting in regions that already experience change that exceeds long-term projected trends in pH. This points to short-term dynamics as an important layer of complexity on top of long-term trends. Thus, in order to predict future climate change impacts, there is a critical need to characterize the natural range and dynamics of the marine carbonate system and the mechanisms responsible for observed variability. Here, we present pH and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) at time intervals spanning 1 hour to >1 year from a dynamic, coastal, temperate marine system (Beaufort Inlet, Beaufort NC USA) to characterize the carbonate system at multiple time scales. Daily and seasonal variation of the carbonate system is largely driven by temperature, alkalinity and the balance between primary production and respiration, but high frequency change (hours to days) is further influenced by water mass movement (e.g. tides) and stochastic events (e.g. storms). Both annual (~0.3 units) and diurnal (~0.1 units) variability in coastal ocean acidity are similar in magnitude to 50 year projections of ocean acidity associated with increasing atmospheric CO₂. The environmental variables driving these changes highlight the importance of characterizing the complete carbonate system rather than just pH. Short-term dynamics of ocean carbon parameters may already exert significant pressure on some coastal marine ecosystems with implications for ecology, biogeochemistry and evolution and this shorter term variability layers additive effects and complexity, including extreme values, on top of long-term trends in ocean acidification.     

Defining CO2 and O2 syndromes of marine biomes in the Anthropocene

Research efforts have intensified to foresee the prospects for marine biomes under climate change and anthropogenic drivers over varying temporal and spatial scales. Parallel with these efforts is the utilization of terminology, such as ‘ocean acidification’ (OA) and ‘ocean deoxygenation’ (OD), that can foster rapid comprehension of complex processes driving carbon dioxide (CO₂) and oxygen (O₂) concentrations in the global ocean and thus, are now widely used in discussions within and beyond academia. However, common usage of the terms ‘acidification’ and ‘deoxygenation’ alone are subjective and, without adequate contextualization, have the potential to mislead inferences over drivers that may ultimately shape the future state of marine ecosystems. Here we clarify the usage of the terms OA and OD as global, climate change‐driven processes and discuss the various attributes of elevated CO₂ and reduced O₂ syndromes common to coastal ecosystems. We support the use of the existing terms ‘coastal acidification’ and ‘coastal deoxygenation’ because they help differentiate the sometimes rapid and extreme nature of CO₂ and O₂ syndromes in coastal ecosystems from the global, climate change‐driven processes of OA and OD. Given the complexity and breadth of the processes involved in altering CO₂ and O₂ concentrations across marine ecosystems, we provide a workflow to enable contextualization and clarification of the usage of existing terms and highlight the close link between these two gases across spatial and temporal scales in the ocean. These distinctions are crucial to guide effective communication of research within the scientific community and guide policymakers responsible for intervening on the drivers to secure desirable future ocean states.     

中国东部温带植被生长季节的空间外推估计

利用地面植物物候和遥感归一化差值植被指数（NDVI）数据,以及一种物候-遥感外推方法,实现植被生长季节从少数站点到较多站点的空间外推。结果表明：（1）在1982～1993年期间,中国东部温带地区植被生长季节多年平均起讫日期的空间格局与春季和秋季平均气温的空间格局相关显著;（2）在不同纬度带和整个研究区域,植被生长季节结束日期呈显著推迟的趋势,而开始日期则呈不显著提前的趋势,这与欧洲和北美地区植被生长季节开始日期显著提前而结束日期不显著推迟的变化趋势完全不同;（3）北部纬度带的植被生长季节平均每年延长1．4～3．6d,全区的植被生长季节平均每年延长1．4d,与同期北半球和欧亚大陆植被生长季节延长的趋势数值相近;（4）植被生长季节结束日期的显著推迟与晚春至夏季的区域性降温有关,而植被生长季节开始日期的不显著提前则与晚冬至春季气温趋势的不稳定变化有关;（5）在年际变化方面,植被生长季节开始和结束日期分别与2～4月份平均气温和5～6月份平均气温呈负相关关系。     

Ocean acidification refugia in variable environments

Climate change refugia in the terrestrial biosphere are areas where species are protected from global environmental change and arise from natural heterogeneity in landscapes and climate. Within the marine realm, ocean acidification, or the global decline in seawater pH, remains a pervasive threat to organisms and ecosystems. Natural variability in seawater carbon dioxide (CO₂) chemistry, however, presents an opportunity to identify ocean acidification refugia (OAR) for marine species. Here, we review the literature to examine the impacts of variable CO₂ chemistry on biological responses to ocean acidification and develop a framework of definitions and criteria that connects current OAR research to management goals. Under the concept of managing vulnerability, the most likely mechanisms by which OAR can mitigate ocean acidification impacts are by reducing exposure to harmful conditions or enhancing adaptive capacity. While local management options, such as OAR, show some promise, they present unique challenges, and reducing global anthropogenic CO₂ emissions must remain a priority.     

Marine biological controls on climate via the carbon and sulphur geochemical cycles

We review aspects of the influence of the marine biota on climate, focusing particularly on their role in mediating surface temperatures via their influence on atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) and dimethyl sulphide (DMS) concentrations. Variation in natural CO₂ concentrations occurring over 10³ to 10⁵ years are set by oceanic processes, and in particular by conditions in the Southern Ocean, so it is to this region that we must look to understand the glacial-interglacial changes in CO₂ concentrations. It seems likely that marine productivity in the Southern Ocean is limited by a combination of restricted iron supply to the region and insufficient light. Plankton-produced DMS is thought to influence climate by changing the numbers of cloud condensation nuclei available in remote regions; the efficiency of this mechanism is still unknown, but calculations suggest it may be a powerful influence on climate. It has a much shorter time-scale than the CO₂ effect, and as a consequence may well be a player on the ''global change'' timescale. The direction of both the CO₂ and the DMS mechanisms is such that more marine productivity would lead to lower global temperatures, and we speculate that the overall effect of the marine biota today is to cool the planet by ca. 6°C as a result of these two mechanisms, with one-third of this figure being due to CO₂ effects and two-thirds due to DMS. While the marine biota influence climate, climate also influences the marine biota, chiefly via changing atmospheric circulation. This in turn alters ocean circulation patterns, responsible for mixing up sub-surface nutrients, and also influences the transport of nutrients, such as iron, in atmospheric dust. A more vigorous atmospheric circulation would be expected to increase the productivity of the marine biota on both counts. Thus during glacial time, the colder and drier climate might be expected to stimulate greater marine productivity than occurs today. Since more production leads to greater cooling by reduction in CO₂ and increase in DMS, the marine biota-climate system appears to have been in positive feedback in the glacial-interglacial transition, with the changes in the climate system being reinforced by changes in the marine biota. In the context of anthropogenic change, we cannot at present say what sign the feedback on climate will have, because we have no clear idea whether circulation will become more or less vigorous in the future.     

Functional genomic analysis of corals from natural CO2‐seeps reveals core molecular responses involved in acclimatization to ocean acidification

Little is known about the potential for acclimatization or adaptation of corals to ocean acidification and even less about the molecular mechanisms underpinning these processes. Here, we examine global gene expression patterns in corals and their intracellular algal symbionts from two replicate population pairs in Papua New Guinea that have undergone long‐term acclimatization to natural variation in pCO₂. In the coral host, only 61 genes were differentially expressed in response to pCO₂ environment, but the pattern of change was highly consistent between replicate populations, likely reflecting the core expression homeostasis response to ocean acidification. Functional annotations highlight lipid metabolism and a change in the stress response capacity of corals as key parts of this process. Specifically, constitutive downregulation of molecular chaperones was observed, which may impact response to combined climate change‐related stressors. Elevated CO₂ has been hypothesized to benefit photosynthetic organisms but expression changes of in hospite Symbiodinium in response to acidification were greater and less consistent among reef populations. This population‐specific response suggests hosts may need to adapt not only to an acidified environment, but also to changes in their Symbiodinium populations that may not be consistent among environments, adding another challenging dimension to the physiological process of coping with climate change.     

The lightning–biota climatic feedback

We investigate a negative climatic feedback which involves an increase in deposition of lightning‐produced nitrogen compounds into ecosystems as a response to a global temperature rise. This increases primary production on both land and ocean, which reduces atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂), and consequently global temperature in return. Large uncertainties in numerous processes and parameters in this feedback exist and therefore its importance is unclear. This feedback is investigated using a conceptual dynamical model, including assessing its role in counteracting anthropogenic‐induced warming by reducing the rate of accumulation and concentration of atmospheric CO₂. Overall, this study suggests that this feedback is of mild strength in the climate system, but raises the intriguing possibility that it should be considered in long‐term climate simulations. Further work in investigating this climatic feedback is required.     

Emergence patterns of novelty in European vegetation assemblages over the past 15 000 years

Plant communities are not stable over time and biological novelty is predicted to emerge due to climate change, the introduction of exotic species and land‐use change. However, the rate at which this novelty may arise over longer time periods has so far received little attention. We reconstruct the emergence of novelty in Europe for a set of baseline conditions over the past 15 000 years to assess past rates of emergence and investigate underlying causes. The emergence of novelty is baseline specific and, during the early‐Holocene, was mitigated by the rapid spread of plant taxa. Although novelty generally increases as a function of time, climate and human‐induced landscape changes contributed to a non‐linear post‐glacial trajectory of novelty with jumps corresponding to periods of rapid changes. Emergence of novelty accelerated during the past 1000 years. Historical cultural landscapes experienced a faster novelty development due to the contribution from anthropogenic land‐cover changes.     

Similarities in butterfly emergence dates among populations suggest local adaptation to climate

Phenology shifts are the most widely cited examples of the biological impact of climate change, yet there are few assessments of potential effects on the fitness of individual organisms or the persistence of populations. Despite extensive evidence of climate‐driven advances in phenological events over recent decades, comparable patterns across species' geographic ranges have seldom been described. Even fewer studies have quantified concurrent spatial gradients and temporal trends between phenology and climate. Here we analyse a large data set (~129 000 phenology measures) over 37 years across the UK to provide the first phylogenetic comparative analysis of the relative roles of plasticity and local adaptation in generating spatial and temporal patterns in butterfly mean flight dates. Although populations of all species exhibit a plastic response to temperature, with adult emergence dates earlier in warmer years by an average of 6.4 days per °C, among‐population differences are significantly lower on average, at 4.3 days per °C. Emergence dates of most species are more synchronised over their geographic range than is predicted by their relationship between mean flight date and temperature over time, suggesting local adaptation. Biological traits of species only weakly explained the variation in differences between space‐temperature and time‐temperature phenological responses, suggesting that multiple mechanisms may operate to maintain local adaptation. As niche models assume constant relationships between occurrence and environmental conditions across a species' entire range, an important implication of the temperature‐mediated local adaptation detected here is that populations of insects are much more sensitive to future climate changes than current projections suggest.     

Modeling the effects of snowpack on heterotrophic respiration across northern temperate and high latitude regions: Comparison with measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide in high latitudes

Simulations by global terrestrial biogeochemical models (TBMs) consistently underestimate the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂ at high latitude monitoring stations during the non-growing season. We hypothesized that heterotrophic respiration is underestimated during the nongrowing season primarily because TBMs do not generally consider the insulative effects of snowpack on soil temperature. To evaluate this hypothesis, we compared the performance of baseline and modified versions of three TBMs in simulating the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO₂ at high latitude CO₂ monitoring stations; the modified version maintained soil temperature at 0 °C when modeled snowpack was present. The three TBMs include the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA), Century, and the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM). In comparison with the baseline simulation of each model, the snowpack simulations caused higher releases of CO₂ between November and March and greater uptake of CO₂ between June and August for latitudes north of 30° N. We coupled the monthly estimates of CO₂ exchange, the seasonal carbon dioxide flux fields generated by the HAMOCC3 seasonal ocean carbon cycle model, and fossil fuel source fields derived from standard sources to the three-dimensional atmospheric transport model TM2 forced by observed winds to simulate the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO₂ at each of seven high latitude monitoring stations. In comparison to the CO₂ concentrations simulated with the baseline fluxes of each TBM, concentrations simulated using the snowpack fluxes are generally in better agreement with observed concentrations between August and March at each of the monitoring stations. Thus, representation of the insulative effects of snowpack in TBMs generally improves simulation of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations in high latitudes during both the late growing season and nongrowing season. These simulations highlight the global importance of biogeochemical processes during the nongrowing season in estimating carbon balance of ecosystems in northern high and temperate latitudes.     

鱼类对海洋升温与酸化的响应

自工业革命以来,空气中人为排放CO₂量增加,引起温室效应,导致地球表面温度升高和海水升温;同时,由于海-气界面气体交换,大气中CO₂部分溶解于海洋,引起海洋酸化。海洋升温加快鱼体内生化反应和代谢速率,并通过影响生长、觅食和繁殖等生命过程中能量供给,间接影响到鱼类种群分布、群落结构及生态系统的功能。而海水酸化会干扰海洋鱼类仔稚鱼的感觉和行为,增加其被捕食率,并削弱其野外生存能力,可能威胁自然种群补给量。综述了海洋升温、海洋酸化及其两者共同作用对海洋鱼类的影响,为预测鱼类响应全球海洋环境变化的响应趋势提供相关依据。     

The effect of elevated CO2 on the production and respiration of a Sargassum thunbergii community: A mesocosm study

Approximately one‐third of anthropogenic carbon dioxide is absorbed into the ocean and causes it to become more acidic. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggested that the surface ocean pH, by the year 2100, would drop by a further 0.3 and 0.4 pH units under RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 6.0 and 8.5 climate scenarios. The macroalgae communities that consisted of Sargassum thunbergii and naturally attached epibionts were exposed to fluctuations of ambient and manipulated pH (0.3–0.4 units below ambient pH). The production and respiration in S. thunbergii communities were calculated from dissolved oxygen time‐series recorded with optical dissolved oxygen sensors. The pH, irradiance, and dissolved oxygen occurred in parallel with diurnal (day/night) patterns. According to net mesocosm production – photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) model, the saturation and compensation PAR, the mean maximum gross mesocosm production (GMP), and daily mesocosm respiration were higher in the CO₂ enrichment, than in the ambient condition, while the mean of photosynthetic coefficient was similar. In conclusion, elevated CO₂ stimulated oxygen production and consumption of S. thunbergii communities in the mesocosm. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the GMP of the S. thunbergii community to irradiance was reduced, and achieved maximum production rate at higher PAR. These positive responses to CO₂ enrichment suggest that S. thunbergii communities may thrive in under high CO₂ conditions.     

Trends in tuna carbon isotopes suggest global changes in pelagic phytoplankton communities

Considerable uncertainty remains over how increasing atmospheric CO₂ and anthropogenic climate changes are affecting open‐ocean marine ecosystems from phytoplankton to top predators. Biological time series data are thus urgently needed for the world's oceans. Here, we use the carbon stable isotope composition of tuna to provide a first insight into the existence of global trends in complex ecosystem dynamics and changes in the oceanic carbon cycle. From 2000 to 2015, considerable declines in δ¹³C values of 0.8‰–2.5‰ were observed across three tuna species sampled globally, with more substantial changes in the Pacific Ocean compared to the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. Tuna recorded not only the Suess effect, that is, fossil fuel‐derived and isotopically light carbon being incorporated into marine ecosystems, but also recorded profound changes at the base of marine food webs. We suggest a global shift in phytoplankton community structure, for example, a reduction in ¹³C‐rich phytoplankton such as diatoms, and/or a change in phytoplankton physiology during this period, although this does not rule out other concomitant changes at higher levels in the food webs. Our study establishes tuna δ¹³C values as a candidate essential ocean variable to assess complex ecosystem responses to climate change at regional to global scales and over decadal timescales. Finally, this time series will be invaluable in calibrating and validating global earth system models to project changes in marine biota.     

Long‐term increases in tropical flowering activity across growth forms in response to rising CO2 and climate change

Mounting evidence suggests that anthropogenic global change is altering plant species composition in tropical forests. Fewer studies, however, have focused on long‐term trends in reproductive activity, in part because of the lack of data from tropical sites. Here, we analyze a 28‐year record of tropical flower phenology in response to anthropogenic climate and atmospheric change. We show that a multidecadal increase in flower activity is most strongly associated with rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations using yearly aggregated data. Compared to significant climatic factors, CO₂ had on average an approximately three‐, four‐, or fivefold stronger effect than rainfall, solar radiation, and the Multivariate ENSO Index, respectively. Peaks in flower activity were associated with greater solar radiation and lower rainfall during El Niño years. The effect of atmospheric CO₂ on flowering has diminished over the most recent decade for lianas and canopy trees, whereas flowering of midstory trees and shrub species continued to increase with rising CO₂. Increases in flowering were accompanied by a lengthening of flowering duration for canopy and midstory trees. Understory treelets did not show increases in flowering but did show increases in duration. Given that atmospheric CO₂ will likely continue to climb over the next century, a long‐term increase in flowering activity may persist in some growth forms until checked by nutrient limitation or by climate change through rising temperatures, increasing drought frequency and/or increasing cloudiness and reduced insolation.     

The effects of land use and climate change on the carbon cycle of Europe over the past 500 years

The long residence time of carbon in forests and soils means that both the current state and future behavior of the terrestrial biosphere are influenced by past variability in climate and anthropogenic land use. Over the last half‐millennium, European terrestrial ecosystems were affected by the cool temperatures of the Little Ice Age, rising CO₂ concentrations, and human induced deforestation and land abandonment. To quantify the importance of these processes, we performed a series of simulations with the LPJ dynamic vegetation model driven by reconstructed climate, land use, and CO₂ concentrations. Although land use change was the major control on the carbon inventory of Europe over the last 500 years, the current state of the terrestrial biosphere is largely controlled by land use change during the past century. Between 1500 and 2000, climate variability led to temporary sequestration events of up to 3 Pg, whereas increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations during the 20th century led to an increase in carbon storage of up to 15 Pg. Anthropogenic land use caused between 25 Pg of carbon emissions and 5 Pg of uptake over the same time period, depending on the historical and spatial pattern of past land use and the timing of the reversal from deforestation to afforestation during the last two centuries. None of the currently existing anthropogenic land use change datasets adequately capture the timing of the forest transition in most European countries as recorded in historical observations. Despite considerable uncertainty, our scenarios indicate that with limited management, extant European forests have the potential to absorb between 5 and 12 Pg of carbon at the present day.     

Evaluation of the terrestrial carbon cycle, future plant geography and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks using five Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs)

This study tests the ability of five Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), forced with observed climatology and atmospheric CO₂, to model the contemporary global carbon cycle. The DGVMs are also coupled to a fast ‘climate analogue model’, based on the Hadley Centre General Circulation Model (GCM), and run into the future for four Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES): A1FI, A2, B1, B2. Results show that all DGVMs are consistent with the contemporary global land carbon budget. Under the more extreme projections of future environmental change, the responses of the DGVMs diverge markedly. In particular, large uncertainties are associated with the response of tropical vegetation to drought and boreal ecosystems to elevated temperatures and changing soil moisture status. The DGVMs show more divergence in their response to regional changes in climate than to increases in atmospheric CO₂ content. All models simulate a release of land carbon in response to climate, when physiological effects of elevated atmospheric CO₂ on plant production are not considered, implying a positive terrestrial climate‐carbon cycle feedback. All DGVMs simulate a reduction in global net primary production (NPP) and a decrease in soil residence time in the tropics and extra‐tropics in response to future climate. When both counteracting effects of climate and atmospheric CO₂ on ecosystem function are considered, all the DGVMs simulate cumulative net land carbon uptake over the 21st century for the four SRES emission scenarios. However, for the most extreme A1FI emissions scenario, three out of five DGVMs simulate an annual net source of CO₂ from the land to the atmosphere in the final decades of the 21st century. For this scenario, cumulative land uptake differs by 494 Pg C among DGVMs over the 21st century. This uncertainty is equivalent to over 50 years of anthropogenic emissions at current levels.     

Temperature and pCO2 jointly affect the emergence and survival of cercariae from a snail host: implications for future parasitic infections in the Humboldt Current system

Ocean warming and acidification are general consequences of rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. In addition to future predictions, highly productive systems such as the Humboldt Current System are characterized by important variations in both temperature and pCO₂ level, but how these physical–chemical ocean changes might influence the transmission and survival of parasites has not been assessed. This study experimentally evaluated the effects of temperature (14, 18 and 25 °C) and the combined effects of temperature (∼15 and 20 °C) and pCO₂ level (∼500 and 1400 microatmospheres (µatm) on the emergence and survival of two species of marine trematodes—Echinostomatidae gen. sp. and Philophthalmidae gen. sp.—both of which infect the intertidal snail Echinolittorina peruviana. Snails were collected from intertidal rocky pools in a year-round upwelling area of the northern Humboldt Current System (23°S). Two experiments assessed parasite emergence and survival by simulating emersion-immersion tidal cycles. To assess parasite survival, 2 h old cercariae (on average) were taken from a pool of infected snails incubated at 20–25 °C, and their mortality was recorded every 6 h until all the cercariae were dead. For both species, a trade-off between high emergence and low survival of cercariae was observed in the high temperature treatment. Species-specific responses to the combination of temperature and pCO₂ levels were also observed: the emergence of Echinostomatidae cercariae was highest at 20 °C regardless of the pCO₂ levels. By contrast, the emergence of Philophthalmidae cercariae was highest at elevated pCO₂ (15 and 20 °C), suggesting that CO₂ may react synergistically with temperature, increasing transmission success of this parasite in coastal ecosystems of the Humboldt Current System where water temperature and pH are expected to decrease. In conclusion, our results suggest that integrating temperature-pCO₂ interactions in parasite studies is essential for understanding the consequence of climate change in future marine ecosystem health.     

Climate change impact on development rates of the codling moth (Cydia pomonella L.) in the Wielkopolska region, Poland

The main goal of this paper is to estimate how the observed and predicted climate changes may affect the development rates and emergence of the codling moth in the southern part of the Wielkopolska region in Poland. In order to simulate the future climate conditions one of the most frequently used A1B SRES scenarios and two different IPCC climate models (HadCM3 and GISS modelE) are considered. A daily weather generator (WGENK) was used to generate temperature values for present and future climate conditions (time horizons 2020–2040 and 2040–2060). Based on the generated data set, the degree-days values were then calculated and the emergence dates of the codling moth at key stages were estimated basing on the defined thresholds. Our analyses showed that the average air surface temperature in the Wielkopolska region may increase from 2.8°C (according to GISS modelE) even up to 3.3°C (HadCM3) in the period of 2040–2060. With the warming climate conditions the cumulated degree-days values may increase at a rate of about 142 DD per decade when the low temperature threshold (T _low ) of 0°C is considered and 91 DD per decade when T _low ?=?10°C. The key developmental stages of the codling moth may occur much earlier in the future climate conditions than currently, at a rate of about 3.8–6.8 days per decade, depending on the considered GCM model and the pest developmental stage. The fastest changes may be observed in the emergence dates of 95% of larvae of the second codling moth generation. This could increase the emergence probability of the pest third generation that has not currently occurred in Poland.