Static species distribution models in dynamically changing systems: how good can predictions really be?

It is widely acknowledged that species respond to climate change by range shifts. Robust predictions of such changes in species’ distributions are pivotal for conservation planning and policy making, and are thus major challenges in ecological research. Statistical species distribution models (SDMs) have been widely applied in this context, though they remain subject to criticism as they implicitly assume equilibrium, and incorporate neither dispersal, demographic processes nor biotic interactions explicitly. In this study, the effects of transient dynamics and ecological properties and processes on the prediction accuracy of SDMs for climate change projections were tested. A spatially explicit multi‐species dynamic population model was built, incorporating species‐specific and interspecific ecological processes, environmental stochasticity and climate change. Species distributions were sampled in different scenarios, and SDMs were estimated by applying generalised linear models (GLMs) and boosted regression trees (BRTs). Resulting model performances were related to prevailing ecological processes and temporal dynamics. SDM performance varied for different range dynamics. Prediction accuracies decreased when abrupt range shifts occurred as species were outpaced by the rate of climate change, and increased again when a new equilibrium situation was realised. When ranges contracted, prediction accuracies increased as the absences were predicted well. Far‐dispersing species were faster in tracking climate change, and were predicted more accurately by SDMs than short‐dispersing species. BRTs mostly outperformed GLMs. The presence of a predator, and the inclusion of its incidence as an environmental predictor, made BRTs and GLMs perform similarly. Results are discussed in light of other studies dealing with effects of ecological traits and processes on SDM performance. Perspectives are given on further advancements of SDMs and for possible interfaces with more mechanistic approaches in order to improve predictions under environmental change.     

区域气候变化统计降尺度研究进展

统计降尺度方法(the Statistical Downscaling Methods, SDM)是为合理预测区域尺度的气候变化情景而提出的新型研究方法。统计降尺度法利用多年大气环流的观测资料建立大尺度气候要素和区域气候要素之间的统计关系,并用独立的观测资料检验这种关系的合理性。把这种关系应用于大气环流模式(Global atmospheric general circulation models, GCMs)中输出大尺度气候信息,来预估区域未来的气候变化情景(如气温和降水)。同时,10a来降尺度方法在生态过程模拟以及气候变化与生态预报关系拟合研究方面也取得一定进展。对统计降尺度方法概念的内涵和外延、基本原理和操作步骤的创新研究方面进行了综述,归纳了该方法在模拟区域气候变化中的应用进展、研究热点及发展趋势,介绍了降尺度在生态预报中的相关应用,为相关研究提供参考。     

Incorporating intraspecific variation into species distribution models improves distribution predictions,but cannot predict species traits for a wide-spread plant species

The most common approach to predicting how species ranges and ecological functions will shift with climate change is to construct correlative species distribution models (SDMs). These models use a species’ climatic distribution to determine currently suitable areas for the species and project its potential distribution under future climate scenarios. A core, rarely tested, assumption of SDMs is that all populations will respond equivalently to climate. Few studies have examined this assumption, and those that have rarely dissect the reasons for intraspecific differences. Focusing on the arctic-alpine cushion plant Silene acaulis, we compared predictive accuracy from SDMs constructed using the species’ full global distribution with composite predictions from separate SDMs constructed using subpopulations defined either by genetic or habitat differences. This is one of the first studies to compare multiple ways of constructing intraspecific-level SDMs with a species-level SDM. We also examine the contested relationship between relative probability of occurrence and species performance or ecological function, testing if SDM output can predict individual performance (plant size) and biotic interactions (facilitation). We found that both genetic- and habitat-informed SDMs are considerably more accurate than a species-level SDM, and that the genetic model substantially differs from and outperforms the habitat model. While SDMs have been used to infer population performance and possibly even biotic interactions, in our system these relationships were extremely weak. Our results indicate that individual subpopulations may respond differently to climate, although we discuss and explore several alternative explanations for the superior performance of intraspecific-level SDMs. We emphasize the need to carefully examine how to best define intraspecific-level SDMs as well as how potential genetic, environmental, or sampling variation within species ranges can critically affect SDM predictions. We urge caution in inferring population performance or biotic interactions from SDM predictions, as these often-assumed relationships are not supported in our study.     

Policy Language in Restoration Ecology

Relating restoration ecology to policy is one of the aims of the Society for Ecological Restoration and its journal Restoration Ecology. As an interdisciplinary team of researchers in both ecological science and political science, we have struggled with how policy‐relevant language is and could be deployed in restoration ecology. Using language in scientific publications that resonates with overarching policy questions may facilitate linkages between researcher investigations and decision‐makers' concerns on all levels. Climate change is the most important environmental problem of our time and to provide policymakers with new relevant knowledge on this problem is of outmost importance. To determine whether or not policy‐specific language was being included in restoration ecology science, we surveyed the field of restoration ecology from 2008 to 2010, identifying 1,029 articles, which we further examined for the inclusion of climate change as a key element of the research. We found that of the 58 articles with “climate change” or “global warming” in the abstract, only 3 identified specific policies relevant to the research results. We believe that restoration ecologists are failing to include themselves in policy formation and implementation of issues such as climate change within journals focused on restoration ecology. We suggest that more explicit reference to policies and terminology recognizable to policymakers might enhance the impact of restoration ecology on decision‐making processes.     

Impact factor in AIDS and other infectious diseases.

The impact factor (IF) is the most accurate system currently available for objectively evaluating the scientific productivity of individual researchers and institutions. It represents the quality level of a periodical and, at the same time, is a convenient reference parameter for the researcher to use in choosing an appropriate journal before submitting his own work for consideration. From this standpoint, we conducted an analysis of periodicals with the highest IF, including those strictly related to infectious diseases and HIV/AIDS, specialty journals, and general medicine reviews. This was done in order to determine just how much of these journals' total 1998 production consisted of articles concerning HIV infection and AIDS. This examination, conducted through a search of the MEDLINE database, predictably revealed greater interest in the HIV/AIDS topic among journals with the highest IF that focus on infectious diseases, though the same interest revealed when examining specialty journals and general medicine periodicals was not negligible.     

气候变化背景下生物入侵研究态势的文献计量分析

生物入侵严重威胁生物多样性与生态系统健康,对全球环境、经济造成极大损失,而快速的气候变化显著影响外来生物的扩散和入侵进程。探讨气候变化背景下生物入侵研究态势能够从宏观上把握该领域的国际研究现状与热点,为深入理解外来种入侵机制和制定合理的防治策略提供参考。该文基于最近27 a间(1990—2016年)科学文献数据库Web of Science中科学引文索引扩展版(SCI-E)数据,利用TDA等统计工具对气候变化下生物入侵方面的研究进行了文献计量分析。结果表明:27 a间共发表论文1 736篇,论文数量整体保持增长态势,2009年开始进入快速发展阶段;该领域的研究涉及环境科学与生态学、生物多样性保护、植物学等多个学科;澳大利亚莫纳什大学Chown SL教授发文量最高(35篇);美国的总发文量(708篇)和高被引、高影响因子论文数量均居世界首位;发文量最多的研究机构是加利福尼亚大学(93篇),中国科学院发文量居世界第10位(27篇);Biological Invasions是刊文量最大的学术杂志;物种分布模型、生物多样性、全球变暖、风险评估等是近年来该领域的研究热点;中国共发表论文52篇,中国科学院是国内最大的发文机构,其中,动物研究所、武汉植物园、植物研究所的发文量居中科院科研系统前三名;中国在气候变化下生物入侵领域的高被引、高影响因子论文数量及国际合作强度亟待提升。未来需重点关注气候变化下生物入侵的预测与风险评估、生物入侵与生物多样性关系、入侵物种的系统进化、入侵生态系统的多营养级关系、海洋生物入侵、生物入侵与人类健康等问题。     

Pushing the limits in marine species distribution modelling: lessons from the land present challenges and opportunities

Aim Species distribution models (SDMs) have been used to address a wide range of theoretical and applied questions in the terrestrial realm, but marine‐based applications remain relatively scarce. In this review, we consider how conceptual and practical issues associated with terrestrial SDMs apply to a range of marine organisms and highlight the challenges relevant to improving marine SDMs. Location We include studies from both marine and terrestrial systems that encompass many geographic locations around the globe. Methods We first performed a literature search and analysis of marine and terrestrial SDMs in ISI Web of Science to assess trends and applications. Using knowledge from terrestrial applications, we critically evaluate the application of SDMs in marine systems in the context of ecological factors (dispersal, species interactions, aggregation and ontogenetic shifts) and practical considerations (data quality, alternative modelling approaches and model validation) that facilitate or create difficulties for model application. Results The relative importance of ecological factors to be considered when applying SDMs varies among terrestrial and marine organisms. Correctly incorporating dispersal is frequently considered an important issue for terrestrial models, but because there is greater potential for dispersal in the ocean, it is often less of a concern in marine SDMs. By contrast, ontogenetic shifts and feeding have received little attention in terrestrial SDM applications, but these factors are important to many marine SDMs. Opportunities also exist for applying more advanced SDM approaches in the marine realm, including mechanistic ecophysiological models, where water balance and heat transfer equations are simpler for some marine organisms relative to their terrestrial counterparts. Main conclusions SDMs have generally been under‐utilized in the marine realm relative to terrestrial applications. Correlative SDM methods should be tested on a range of marine organisms, and we suggest further development of methods that address ontogenetic shifts and feeding interactions. We anticipate developments in, and cross‐fertilization between, coupled correlative and process‐based SDMs, mechanistic eco‐physiological SDMs, and spatial population dynamic models for climate change and species invasion applications in particular. Comparisons of the outputs of different model types will provide insight that is useful for improved spatial management of marine species.     

2014年中国植物科学若干领域重要研究进展

2014年中国植物科学高速稳步发展,表现在具有原创意义的高质量论文迅速增长。中国科学家在植物学诸多领域,如水稻(Oryza sativa)独脚金内酯信号转导途径、水稻代谢遗传调控、水稻育性的遗传调控机理及农业与环境生物学等取得了大量重要成果,基因组研究从功能到进化、从模式作物扩散到各类经济作物,表现出全方位多维度的整合研究态势。全球气候变化下碳汇响应机制取得重要进展。Nature等国际学术刊物高度关注中国植物科学特别是水稻生物学研究进展。该文概括性综述了2014年中国本土植物科学若干领域取得的重要研究进展,旨在全面追踪当前中国植物科学领域发展的最新前沿和热点事件,并与国内读者分享我国科学家所取得的杰出成就。     

Scale effects in species distribution models: implications for conservation planning under climate change

Predictions of future species' ranges under climate change are needed for conservation planning, for which species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used. However, global climate model-based (GCM) output grids can bias the area identified as suitable when these are used as SDM predictor variables, because GCM outputs, typically at least 50x50 km, are biologically coarse. We tested the assumption that species ranges can be equally well portrayed in SDMs operating on base data of different grid sizes by comparing SDM performance statistics and area selected by four SDMs run at seven grid sizes, for nine species of contrasting range size. Area selected was disproportionately larger for SDMs run on larger grid sizes, indicating a cut-off point above which model results were less reliable. Up to 2.89 times more species range area was selected by SDMs operating on grids above 50x50 km, compared to SDMs operating at 1 km2. Spatial congruence between areas selected as range also diverged as grid size increased, particularly for species with ranges between 20000 and 90000 km2. These results indicate the need for caution when using such data to plan future protected areas, because an overly large predicted range could lead to inappropriate reserve location selection.     

Terrestrial ecologists ignore aquatic literature: Asymmetry in citation breadth in ecological publications and implications for generality and progress in ecology

The search for generality in ecology should include assessing the influence of studies done in one system on those done in other systems. Assuming generality is reflected in citation patterns, we analyzed frequencies of terrestrial, marine, and freshwater citations in papers categorized as terrestrial, marine and freshwater in high-impact “general” ecological journals. Citation frequencies were strikingly asymmetric. Aquatic researchers cited terrestrial papers ~ 10 times more often than the reverse, implying uneven cross-fertilization of information between aquatic and terrestrial ecologists. Comparisons between citation frequencies in the early 1980s and the early 2000s for two of the seven journals yielded similar results. Summing across all journals, 60% of all research papers (n = 5824) published in these journals in 2002–2006 were terrestrial vs. 9% freshwater and 8% marine. Since total numbers of terrestrial and aquatic ecologists are more similar than these proportions suggest, the representation of publications by habitat in “general” ecological journals appears disproportional and unrepresentative of the ecological science community at large. Such asymmetries are a concern because (1) aquatic and terrestrial systems can be tightly integrated, (2) pressure for across-system understanding to meet the challenge of climate change is increasing, (3) citation asymmetry implies barriers to among-system flow of understanding, thus (4) impeding scientific and societal progress. Changing this imbalance likely depends on a bottom-up approach originating from the ecological community, through pressure on societies, journals, editors and reviewers.     

The Combined Use of Correlative and Mechanistic Species Distribution Models Benefits Low Conservation Status Species

Species can respond to climate change by tracking appropriate environmental conditions in space, resulting in a range shift. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) can help forecast such range shift responses. For few species, both correlative and mechanistic SDMs were built, but allis shad (Alosa alosa), an endangered anadromous fish species, is one of them. The main purpose of this study was to provide a framework for joint analyses of correlative and mechanistic SDMs projections in order to strengthen conservation measures for species of conservation concern. Guidelines for joint representation and subsequent interpretation of models outputs were defined and applied. The present joint analysis was based on the novel mechanistic model GR3D (Global Repositioning Dynamics of Diadromous fish Distribution) which was parameterized on allis shad and then used to predict its future distribution along the European Atlantic coast under different climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). We then used a correlative SDM for this species to forecast its distribution across the same geographic area and under the same climate change scenarios. First, projections from correlative and mechanistic models provided congruent trends in probability of habitat suitability and population dynamics. This agreement was preferentially interpreted as referring to the species vulnerability to climate change. Climate change could not be accordingly listed as a major threat for allis shad. The congruence in predicted range limits between SDMs projections was the next point of interest. The difference, when noticed, required to deepen our understanding of the niche modelled by each approach. In this respect, the relative position of the northern range limit between the two methods strongly suggested here that a key biological process related to intraspecific variability was potentially lacking in the mechanistic SDM. Based on our knowledge, we hypothesized that local adaptations to cold temperatures deserved more attention in terms of modelling, but further in conservation planning as well.     

The scientific publications of AIFM members in 2015–2019: A survey of the FutuRuS working group

PurposeWithin the Italian Association of Medical Physics and Health Physics (AIFM) working group “FutuRuS” we carried out a survey regarding the number of the peer-reviewed articles by AIFM members.MethodsWe surveyed papers published in the years 2015–2019. Data extracted from Scopus included information regarding authors, title, journal, impact factor (IF), leading or standard authorship by AIFM members, keywords, type of collaboration (monocentric/multicentric/international), area of interest [radiation oncology (RO), radiology (RAD), nuclear medicine (NM), radioprotection (RP) and professional issue (PI)] and topics.ResultsWe found 1210 papers published in peer-reviewed journals: 48%, 22%, 16%, 6%, 2 and 6% in RO, RAD, NM, RP, PI and other topics, respectively. Forty-seven percent of the papers involved monocentric teams, 31% multicentric and 22% international collaborations. Leading authorship of AIFM members was in 56% of papers, with a corresponding IF equal to 52% of the total IF (3342, IF_mean = 2.8, IF_max = 35.4). The most represented journal was Physica Medica, with 15% of papers, while a relevant fraction of IF (54%) appeared in clinically oriented journals. The number of papers increased significantly between 2015 and 2016 and remained almost constant in 2017–2019.ConclusionsThis survey led to the first quantitative assessment of the number and theme distribution of peer-reviewed scientific articles contributed by AIFM members. It constitutes a ground basis to support future AIFM strategies and promote working groups on scientific activity of medical physicists, and to build the basis for rational comparison with other countries, first of all within Europe.     

I Publish in I Edit? - Do Editorial Board Members of Urologic Journals Preferentially Publish Their Own Scientific Work?

Scientists who are members of an editorial board have been accused of preferentially publishing their scientific work in the journal where they serve as editor. Reputation and academic standing do depend on an uninterrupted flow of published scientific work and the question does arise as to whether publication mainly occurs in the self-edited journal. This investigation was designed to determine whether editorial board members of five urological journals were more likely to publish their research reports in their own rather than in other journals. A retrospective analysis was conducted for all original reports published from 2001–2010 by 65 editorial board members nominated to the boards of five impact leading urologic journals in 2006. Publications before editorial board membership, 2001–2005, and publications within the period of time as an editorial board member, 2006–2010, were identified. The impact factors of the journals were also recorded over the time period 2001–2010 to see whether a change in impact factor correlated with publication locality. In the five journals as a whole, scientific work was not preferentially published in the journal in which the scientists served as editor. However, significant heterogeneity among the journals was evident. One journal showed a significant increase in the amount of published papers in the ‘own’ journal after assumption of editorship, three journals showed no change and one journal showed a highly significant decrease in publishing in the ‘own’ journal after assumption of editorship.     

Host plant distributions and climate interact to affect the predicted geographic distribution of a Neotropical termite

Species distribution models (SDMs) have been widely used in the scientific literature. The majority of SDMs use climate data or other abiotic variables to forecast the potential distribution of a species in geographic space. Biotic interactions can affect the predicted spatial distribution of a species in many ways across multiple spatial scales, and incorporating these predictors in an SDM is a current topic in the scientific literature. Constrictotermes cyphergaster is a widely distributed termite in the Neotropics. This termite species nests in plants and more frequently nests in some arboreal species. Thus, this species is an excellent model to evaluate the influence of biotic interactions in SDMs. We evaluate the influences of climate and the geographic distribution of host plants on the potential distribution of C. cyphergaster. Three correlative models (MaxEnt) were built to predict the geographic distribution of the termite: (1) climate data, (2) biotic data (i.e., the geographic distribution of host plants), and (3) climate and biotic data. The models that were generated indicate that the potential geographic distribution of C. cyphergaster is concentrated in the Cerrado and Caatinga regions. In addition, path analysis and multiple regression revealed the importance of the direct effects of biological interactions in the geographic distribution of the termite, while climate affected the distribution of the termite mainly through indirect effects by influencing the geographic distributions of host plants. The current study endorses the importance of including biological interactions in SDMs. We recommend using biotic predictors in SDM studies of insect species, mainly because insects have important environmental services and biotic interaction data can improve the macroecological studies of this group.     

Negative changes in the scientific publication process in ecology: potential causes and consequences

1. Increasingly viewed to have societal impact and value, science is affected by complex changes such as globalisation and the increasing dominance of commercial interest. As a result, technical advancements, financial concerns, institutional prestige and journal proliferation have created challenges for ecological and other scientific journals and affected the perception of both researchers and the public about the science that they publish. 2. Journals are now used for more than dissemination of scientific research. Institutions use journal rankings for a variety of purposes and often require a pre‐established number of articles in hiring and budgetary decisions. Consequently, journal impact factors have achieved greater importance, and the splitting of articles into smaller parcels of information (‘salami‐slicing’) to increase numbers of publications has become more frequent. 3. Journals may prescribe upper limits to article length, even though the average length of articles for several ecological journals examined has increased over time. There are clear signs, however, that journals without length limits for articles will become rarer. In contrast to ecological journals, taxonomic journals are not following this trend. 4. Two case histories demonstrate how splitting longer ecological articles into a series of shorter ones results in both redundancy of information and actually increases the journal space used overall. Furthermore, with current rejection rates of ecological journals (often ～80%), many thin salami‐sliced articles jam the peer‐review system much longer (through resubmission after rejection) than unsliced articles previously did (e.g. when rejection rates were ～50%). In our experience, the increased pressure to publish many articles in ‘high‐impact’ journals also may decrease the attractiveness of a future scientific career in ecology to young people. 5. ‘Gatekeeping’ of journal quality has shifted from editors to reviewers, and several recent trends are apparent including: bias about appropriate statistical methods; reviewers being more rigid overall; non‐native English writers being criticised for poor communications skills; and favourable reviews being signed more often than unfavourable ones. In terms of production, outsourcing of copy editing has increased the final error rate of published material. 6. We supplemented our perceptions with those of older colleagues (～100 experienced ecologists) that responded to an informal survey on this topic (response rate: 81%). In the opinion of almost 90% of our respondents, the overall review process has changed and for 20% among them the professional quality of reviews has declined. 7. We, and many older colleagues, are convinced there have been some negative changes in the scientific publication process. If younger colleagues share this concern, we can collectively counter this deteriorating situation, because we are the key to the publishing and evaluation process.     

Fifty-Year Fate and Impact of General Medical Journals

Background

Influential medical journals shape medical science and practice and their prestige is usually appraised by citation impact metrics, such as the journal impact factor. However, how permanent are medical journals and how stable is their impact over time?

Methods and Results

We evaluated what happened to general medical journals that were publishing papers half a century ago, in 1959. Data were retrieved from ISI Web of Science for citations and PubMed (Journals function) for journal history. Of 27 eligible journals publishing in 1959, 4 have stopped circulation (including two of the most prestigious journals in 1959) and another 7 changed name between 1959 and 2009. Only 6 of these 27 journals have been published continuously with their initial name since they started circulation. The citation impact of papers published in 1959 gives a very different picture from the current journal impact factor; the correlation between the two is non-significant and very close to zero. Only 13 of the 5,223 papers published in 1959 received at least 5 citations in 2009.

Conclusions

Journals are more permanent entities than single papers, but they are also subject to major change and their relative prominence can change markedly over time.     

Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling

Motivated by the need to solve ecological problems (climate change, habitat fragmentation and biological invasions), there has been increasing interest in species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions from these models inform conservation policy, invasive species management and disease-control measures. However, predictions are subject to uncertainty, the degree and source of which is often unrecognized. Here, we review the SDM literature in the context of uncertainty, focusing on three main classes of SDM: niche-based models, demographic models and process-based models. We identify sources of uncertainty for each class and discuss how uncertainty can be minimized or included in the modelling process to give realistic measures of confidence around predictions. Because this has typically not been performed, we conclude that uncertainty in SDMs has often been underestimated and a false precision assigned to predictions of geographical distribution. We identify areas where development of new statistical tools will improve predictions from distribution models, notably the development of hierarchical models that link different types of distribution model and their attendant uncertainties across spatial scales. Finally, we discuss the need to develop more defensible methods for assessing predictive performance, quantifying model goodness-of-fit and for assessing the significance of model covariates.     

Benchmarking novel approaches for modelling species range dynamics

Increasing biodiversity loss due to climate change is one of the most vital challenges of the 21st century. To anticipate and mitigate biodiversity loss, models are needed that reliably project species’ range dynamics and extinction risks. Recently, several new approaches to model range dynamics have been developed to supplement correlative species distribution models (SDMs), but applications clearly lag behind model development. Indeed, no comparative analysis has been performed to evaluate their performance. Here, we build on process‐based, simulated data for benchmarking five range (dynamic) models of varying complexity including classical SDMs, SDMs coupled with simple dispersal or more complex population dynamic models (SDM hybrids), and a hierarchical Bayesian process‐based dynamic range model (DRM). We specifically test the effects of demographic and community processes on model predictive performance. Under current climate, DRMs performed best, although only marginally. Under climate change, predictive performance varied considerably, with no clear winners. Yet, all range dynamic models improved predictions under climate change substantially compared to purely correlative SDMs, and the population dynamic models also predicted reasonable extinction risks for most scenarios. When benchmarking data were simulated with more complex demographic and community processes, simple SDM hybrids including only dispersal often proved most reliable. Finally, we found that structural decisions during model building can have great impact on model accuracy, but prior system knowledge on important processes can reduce these uncertainties considerably. Our results reassure the clear merit in using dynamic approaches for modelling species’ response to climate change but also emphasize several needs for further model and data improvement. We propose and discuss perspectives for improving range projections through combination of multiple models and for making these approaches operational for large numbers of species.