Impact assessment revisited: improving the theoretical basis for management of invasive alien species

The theoretical underpinnings of the assessment of invasive alien species impacts need to be improved. At present most approaches are unreliable to quantify impact at regional scales and do not allow for comparison of different invasive species. There are four basic problems that need to be addressed: (1) Some impacted ecosystem traits are spatially not additive; (2) invader effects may increase non-linearly with abundance or there may be effect thresholds impairing estimates of linear impact models; (3) the abundance and impact of alien species will often co-vary with environmental variation; and (4) the total invaded range is an inappropriate measure for quantifying regional impact because the habitat area available for invasion can vary markedly among invasive species. Mathematical models and empirical data using an invasive alien plant species (Heracleum mantegazzianum) indicate that ignoring these issues leads to impact estimates almost an order of magnitude from the real values. Thus, we propose a habitat-sensitive formula for regional impact assessment that is unaffected by non-linearity. Furthermore, we make some statistical suggestions on how to assess invader effects properly and we discuss the quantification of the invaded range. These improvements are crucial for impact assessment with the overall aim of prioritizing management of invasive species.     

Secondary invasion: When invasion success is contingent on other invaders altering the properties of recipient ecosystems

Positive interactions between exotic species may increase ecosystem‐level impacts and potentially facilitate the entry and spread of other exotic species. Invader‐facilitated invasion success—”secondary invasion”—is a key conceptual aspect of the well‐known invasional meltdown hypothesis, but remains poorly defined and empirically underexplored. Drawing from heuristic models and published empirical studies, we explore this form of “secondary invasion” and discuss the phenomenon within the recognized conceptual framework of the determinants of invasion success. The term “secondary invasion” has been used haphazardly in the literature to refer to multiple invasion phenomena, most of which have other more accepted titles. Our usage of the term secondary invasion is akin to “invader‐facilitated invasion,” which we define as the phenomenon in which the invasion success of one exotic species is contingent on the presence, influence, and impacts of one or more other exotic species. We present case studies of secondary invasion whereby primary invaders facilitate the entry or establishment of exotic species into communities where they were previously excluded from becoming invasive. Our synthesis, discussion, and conceptual framework of this type of secondary invasion provides a useful reference to better explain how invasive species can alter key properties of recipient ecosystems that can ultimately determine the invasion success of other species. This study increases our appreciation for complex interactions following invasion and highlights the impacts of invasive species themselves as possible determinants of invasion success. We anticipate that highlighting “secondary invasion” in this way will enable studies reporting similar phenomena to be identified and linked through consistent terminology.     

Predicting the impacts of an introduced species from its invasion history: an empirical approach applied to zebra mussel invasions

1. Quantitative models of impact are lacking for the vast majority of known invasive species, particularly in aquatic ecosystems. Consequently, managers lack predictive tools to help them prioritise invasion threats and decide where they can most effectively allocate limited resources. Predictive tools would also enhance the accuracy of water quality assessments, so that impacts caused by an invader are not erroneously attributed to other anthropogenic stressors. 2. The invasion history of a species is a valuable guide for predicting the consequences of its introduction into a new environment. Regression analysis of data from multiple invaded sites can generate empirical models of impact, as is shown here for the zebra mussel Dreissena polymorpha. Dreissena's impacts on benthic invertebrate abundance and diversity follow predictable patterns that are robust across a range of habitat types and geographic regions. Similar empirical models could be developed for other invaders with a documented invasion history. 3. Because an invader's impact is correlated with its abundance, a surrogate model may be generated (when impact data are unavailable) by relating the invader's abundance to environmental variables. Such a model could help anticipate which habitats will be most affected by invasion. Lack of precision should not be a deterrent to developing predictive models where none exist. Crude predictions can be refined as additional data become available. Empirical modelling is a highly informative and inexpensive, but underused, approach in the management of aquatic invasive species.     

To include or not to include (the invader in community analyses)? That is the question

An increasing number of studies report impacts from invasive species on community metrics or ecosystem functions. We draw attention to an issue arising whenever impact is measured on a community where the invader is an integrated part: should or shouldn’t the attributes of the invader itself be included in the data-analysis? We identify many examples from the published literature showing inconsistency in whether or not data for the invader is included or excluded, and discuss potential implications for ecological interpretations. We also provide a case study to show that the invasive seaweed Undaria pinnatifida can be interpreted to have strong or no impact on seaweed communities, depending on its inclusion or exclusion in the data analysis. We conclude that it is critical for studies to (1) clearly state in the methods section, if the invaders are included or excluded from the data-analysis, (2) acknowledge potential differences in outcomes when comparing results based on different methods, and (3) analyze, if possible, impacts both with and without the invader. Finally, we note that this ‘inclusion versus exclusion’ conundrum is not only relevant to invasion biology, but to any field where the test-object of interest can be an integrated part of the response, such as when impact of seaweed blooms are analysed on community productivity or community effects are quantified over time from ecological pulse-perturbation experiments.     

Advancing impact prediction and hypothesis testing in invasion ecology using a comparative functional response approach

Invasion ecology urgently requires predictive methodologies that can forecast the ecological impacts of existing, emerging and potential invasive species. We argue that many ecologically damaging invaders are characterised by their more efficient use of resources. Consequently, comparison of the classical ‘functional response’ (relationship between resource use and availability) between invasive and trophically analogous native species may allow prediction of invader ecological impact. We review the utility of species trait comparisons and the history and context of the use of functional responses in invasion ecology, then present our framework for the use of comparative functional responses. We show that functional response analyses, by describing the resource use of species over a range of resource availabilities, avoids many pitfalls of ‘snapshot’ assessments of resource use. Our framework demonstrates how comparisons of invader and native functional responses, within and between Type II and III functional responses, allow testing of the likely population-level outcomes of invasions for affected species. Furthermore, we describe how recent studies support the predictive capacity of this method; for example, the invasive ‘bloody red shrimp’ Hemimysis anomala shows higher Type II functional responses than native mysids and this corroborates, and could have predicted, actual invader impacts in the field. The comparative functional response method can also be used to examine differences in the impact of two or more invaders, two or more populations of the same invader, and the abiotic (e.g. temperature) and biotic (e.g. parasitism) context-dependencies of invader impacts. Our framework may also address the previous lack of rigour in testing major hypotheses in invasion ecology, such as the ‘enemy release’ and ‘biotic resistance’ hypotheses, as our approach explicitly considers demographic consequences for impacted resources, such as native and invasive prey species. We also identify potential challenges in the application of comparative functional responses in invasion ecology. These include incorporation of numerical responses, multiple predator effects and trait-mediated indirect interactions, replacement versus non-replacement study designs and the inclusion of functional responses in risk assessment frameworks. In future, the generation of sufficient case studies for a meta-analysis could test the overall hypothesis that comparative functional responses can indeed predict invasive species impacts.     

Understanding the long-term effects of species invasions

We describe here the ecological and evolutionary processes that modulate the effects of invasive species over time, and argue that such processes are so widespread and important that ecologists should adopt a long-term perspective on the effects of invasive species. These processes (including evolution, shifts in species composition, accumulation of materials and interactions with abiotic variables) can increase, decrease, or qualitatively change the impacts of an invader through time. However, most studies of the effects of invasive species have been brief and lack a temporal context; 40% of recent studies did not even state the amount of time that had passed since the invasion. Ecologists need theory and empirical data to enable prediction, understanding and management of the acute and chronic effects of species invasions.     

Biodiversity and invasibility in grassland microcosms

In the years since Charles Elton proposed that more diverse communities should be less susceptible to invasion by exotic species, empirical studies have both supported and refuted Elton's hypothesis. Here, I use grassland community microcosms to test the effect of functional diversity on the success of an invasive annual weed (Centaurea solstitialis L.). I found that high functional diversity reduced the success of Centaurea by reducing resource availability. An equally important, but unstudied, question is whether diversity can buffer a community against the impacts of invasive species. In this experiment, although species diversity (independent of functional diversity) did not affect the success of the invader, the invader suppressed growth of species-poor communities more strongly. Invasion of Centaurea also increased summer evapotranspiration in species-poor communities. These results suggest that loss of species diversity alone does not affect community invasibility, but that communities with fewer species may be more likely to decline as a consequence of invasion.     

Competitive displacement or biotic resistance? Disentangling relationships between community diversity and invasion success of tall herbs and shrubs

Questions: Are negative invasion–diversity relationships due to biotic resistance of the invaded plant community or to post‐invasion displacement of less competitive species? Do invasion–diversity relationships change with habitat type or resident traits? Location/species: Lowlands and uplands of western and southern Germany, Heracleum mantegazzianum; mountain range in central Germany, Lupinus polyphyllus; and coastal dunes of northwest Germany, Rosa rugosa. Methods: We tested the significance and estimated regression slopes of invasion–diversity relationships using generalized linear (mixed effects) models relating invader cover and habitat type to species richness in different plant groups, stratified based on size, life cycle and community association. Results: We found negative, positive and neutral relationships between invader cover and species richness. There were negative linear correlations of invader cover with small plant species throughout, but no negative linear correlation with tall species. Invasion–diversity relationships tended to be more negative in early‐successional habitats, such as dunes or abandoned grasslands, than in late‐successional habitats. Conclusions: Invasion diversity–relationships are complex; they vary among habitat types and among different groups of resident species. Negative invasion–diversity relationships are due to asymmetric competitive displacement of inferior species and not due to biotic resistance. Small species are displaced in early‐successional habitats, while there is little effect on persistence of tall species.     

Habitat properties and plant traits interact as drivers of non‐native plant species’ seed production at the local scale

To answer the long‐standing question if we can predict plant invader success based on characteristics of the environment (invasibility) or the invasive species (invasiveness), or the combination of both, there is a need for detailed observational studies in which habitat properties, non‐native plant traits, and the resulting invader success are locally measured. In this study, we assess the interaction of gradients in the environmental and trait space on non‐native species fitness, expressed as seed production, for a set of 10 invasive and noninvasive non‐native species along a wide range of invaded sites in Flanders. In our multidimensional approach, most of the single environmental gradients (temperature, light availability, native plant species diversity, and soil fertility) and sets of non‐native plant traits (plant size, photosynthesis, and foliar chemical attributes) related positively with invader seed production. Yet correlation with seed production was much stronger when several environmental gradients were assessed in interaction, and even more so when we combined plant traits and habitat properties. The latter increased explanatory power of the models on average by 25% for invasive and by 7% for noninvasive species. Additionally, we report a 70‐fold higher seed production in invasive than in noninvasive species and fundamentally different correlations of seed production with plant traits and habitat properties in noninvasive versus invasive species. We conclude that locally measured traits and properties deserve much more attention than they currently get in invasion literature and thus encourage further studies combining this level of detail with the generality of a multiregion and multispecies approach across different stages of invasion.     

Hierarchical spatiotemporal matrix models for characterizing invasions

The growth and dispersal of biotic organisms is an important subject in ecology. Ecologists are able to accurately describe survival and fecundity in plant and animal populations and have developed quantitative approaches to study the dynamics of dispersal and population size. Of particular interest are the dynamics of invasive species. Such nonindigenous animals and plants can levy significant impacts on native biotic communities. Effective models for relative abundance have been developed; however, a better understanding of the dynamics of actual population size (as opposed to relative abundance) in an invasion would be beneficial to all branches of ecology. In this article, we adopt a hierarchical Bayesian framework for modeling the invasion of such species while addressing the discrete nature of the data and uncertainty associated with the probability of detection. The nonlinear dynamics between discrete time points are intuitively modeled through an embedded deterministic population model with density-dependent growth and dispersal components. Additionally, we illustrate the importance of accommodating spatially varying dispersal rates. The method is applied to the specific case of the Eurasian Collared-Dove, an invasive species at mid-invasion in the United States at the time of this writing.     

Biological invasion hotspots: a trait‐based perspective reveals new sub‐continental patterns

Invader traits (including plant growth form) may play an important, and perhaps overlooked, role in determining macroscale patterns of biological invasions and therefore warrant greater consideration in future investigations aimed at understanding these patterns. To assess this need, we used empirical data from a national‐level survey of forest in the contiguous 48 states of the USA to identify geographic hotspots of forest plant invasion for three distinct invasion characteristics: invasive species richness, trait richness (defined as the number of the five following plant growth forms represented by the invasive plants present at a given location: forbs, grasses, shrubs, trees, and vines), and species richness within each growth form. Three key findings emerged. 1) The hotspots identified encompassed from 9 to 23% of the total area of our study region, thereby revealing many forests to be not only invaded, but highly invaded. 2) Substantial spatial disagreement among hotspots of invasive species richness, invasive trait richness, and species richness of invasive plants within each growth form revealed many locations to be hotspots for invader traits, or for particular growth forms of invasive plants, rather than for invasive plants in general. 3) Despite eastern forests exhibiting higher levels of plant invasion than western forests, species richness for invasive forbs and grasses in the west were respectively greater than and equivalent to levels found in the east. Contrasting patterns between eastern and western forests in the number of invasive species detected for each growth form combined with the spatial disagreement found among hotspot types suggests trait‐based variability in invasion drivers. Our findings reveal invader traits to be an important contributor to macroscale invasion patterns.     

Impacts of invasive biota in forest ecosystems in an aboveground–belowground context

Forest ecosystems world-wide are being subjected to invasion by organisms representing all domains of life. Here we use a combined aboveground-belowground approach to provide a conceptual framework for assessing how forests respond to biological invasions. We first address mechanisms by which invasive plants and aboveground and belowground consumers impact on forests, and highlight that although we have a growing understanding of the determinants of the effects of invasive plants, for invasive consumers we have yet to move from a series of iconic case studies to the development of general principles. We also address the effects of invasive biota in the context of the drivers of invasion, co-invasion and invasional meltdown, the issue of simultaneous species gains and losses, and forest restoration and recovery post-invasion. We then highlight areas that would benefit from further work, particularly regarding underlying mechanisms, determinants of context-dependency of invader effects, and linkages between causes and consequences of invasion. In concluding, we emphasize that biological invaders have the potential for large-scale and long-term impacts on forest processes, and consideration of these impacts in an aboveground-belowground context will enable better prediction of future responses of forests to invaders and their management as well as of restoration efforts.     

Severity of impacts of an introduced species corresponds with regional eco‐evolutionary experience

Invasive plant impacts vary widely across introduced ranges. We tested the hypothesis that differences in the eco‐evolutionary experience of native communities with the invader correspond with the impacts of invasive species on native vegetation, with impacts increasing with ecological novelty. We compared plant species richness and composition beneath Pinus contorta to that in adjacent vegetation and other P. contorta stands across a network of sites in its native (Canada and USA) and non‐native (Argentina, Chile, Finland, New Zealand, Scotland, Sweden) ranges. At sites in North America and Europe, within the natural distribution of the genus Pinus, P. contorta was not associated with decreases in diversity. In the Southern Hemisphere, where there are no native Pinaceae, plant communities beneath P. contorta were less diverse than in other regions and compared to uninvaded native vegetation. Effects on native vegetation were particularly pronounced where P. contorta was a more novel life form and exhibited higher growth rates. Our results support the hypothesis that the eco‐evolutionary experience of the native vegetation, and thus the novelty of the invader, determines the magnitude of invader impacts on native communities. Understanding the eco‐evolutionary context of invasions will help to better understand and predict where invasion impacts will be greatest and to prioritize invasive species management.     

Breathing space: deoxygenation of aquatic environments can drive differential ecological impacts across biological invasion stages

The influence of climate change on the ecological impacts of invasive alien species (IAS) remains understudied, with deoxygenation of aquatic environments often-overlooked as a consequence of climate change. Here, we therefore assessed how oxygen saturation affects the ecological impact of a predatory invasive fish, the Ponto-Caspian round goby (Neogobius melanostomus), relative to a co-occurring endangered European native analogue, the bullhead (Cottus gobio) experiencing decline in the presence of the IAS. In individual trials and mesocosms, we assessed the effect of high, medium and low (90%, 60% and 30%) oxygen saturation on: (1) functional responses (FRs) of the IAS and native, i.e. per capita feeding rates; (2) the impact on prey populations exerted; and (3) how combined impacts of both fishes change over invasion stages (Pre-invasion, Arrival, Replacement, Proliferation). Both species showed Type II potentially destabilising FRs, but at low oxygen saturation, the invader had a significantly higher feeding rate than the native. Relative Impact Potential, combining fish per capita effects and population abundances, revealed that low oxygen saturation exacerbates the high relative impact of the invader. The Relative Total Impact Potential (RTIP), modelling both consumer species’ impacts on prey populations in a system, was consistently higher at low oxygen saturation and especially high during invader Proliferation. In the mesocosm experiment, low oxygen lowered RTIP where both species were present, but again the IAS retained high relative impact during Replacement and Proliferation stages at low oxygen. We also found evidence of multiple predator effects, principally antagonism. We highlight the threat posed to native communities by IAS alongside climate-related stressors, but note that solutions may be available to remedy hypoxia and potentially mitigate impacts across invasion stages.

     

Grass Invasions Across a Regional Gradient are Associated with Declines in Belowground Carbon Pools

The composition of plant communities everywhere now likely comprises alien as well as native species, and those aliens that become invasive have wide-ranging impacts on the structure and function of recipient ecosystems. These impacts include perturbations to soil carbon (C) cycling, but the direction and magnitude of impacts are species and climate dependent, making it difficult to generalize whether a specific invader will promote losses or gains in soil C stocks. Generalizations of a specific invader??s impacts are necessary; however, because the range of an invader can encompass thousands of square kilometers, meaning their effects can have broad, regional consequences. To quantify broad-scale and context-dependent impacts of a specific invader, multi-site investigations that capture and measure local and regional environmental heterogeneity are necessary. Using this approach, we show that a widespread grass invader of forest understories is associated with declines in soil C during infilling (spreading within the invaded range). Across the 36 study sites, total soil C stocks declined (P?=?0.113) by approximately 12% (estimated mean?±?SD, uninvaded: 2,429?±?512.9 vs. invaded: 2,140?±?520.7?g?C?m^?2). The decline in total soil C is driven by a significant (P?=?0.047) reduction in the native-derived, mineral-associated soil C fraction. This fraction, whose mass and slow turnover makes it an important C store, is approximately 15% lower in invaded (estimated mean?±?SD: 1,560?±?400.4?g?C?m^?2) than uninvaded plots (1,826?±?398.1?g?C?m^?2). Notably, declines in this C fraction are only apparent at 21 of the sites, reflecting how environmental heterogeneity in other variables (specifically pH, soil moisture, and clay content) are important to quantify to determine invader impacts across a region. The 26% decline in microbial biomass with invasion (P?=?0.011; estimated mean?±?SD, uninvaded: 10.05?±?1.79 vs. invaded: 7.40?±?1.80?g?C?m^?2) is also dependent on site characteristics (pH), and reductions are greater where the invader occurs at higher densities. Reductions in microbial biomass and soil C with invasion suggest that grass invasion will alter soil C cycling and decrease forest-C stores across the study region, although invader effects at a specific-site will be dependent on environmental context.     

Invasive N-fixer Impacts on Litter Decomposition Driven by Changes to Soil Properties Not Litter Quality

Invasive nitrogen (N)-fixing plants often fundamentally change key ecosystem functions, particularly N-cycling. However, the consequences of this for litter decomposition, and the mechanisms that underpin ecosystem responses, remain poorly understood. Moreover, few studies have determined how nutrient pools and fluxes shift as invader density increases and whether these effects persist following invader removal, despite the importance of this for understanding the timing and magnitude of invader impacts in ecosystems. We tested how the decomposition rates of four co-occurring grass species were influenced by changes in the density of the globally invasive N-fixing shrub Cytisus scoparius L. (Scotch broom) and whether these effects persisted following invader removal. We used a series of laboratory decomposition assays to disentangle the roles of changes in both litter quality and soil properties associated with increases in broom density. Broom invasion created a soil environment, such as higher rates of net N-mineralisation, which retarded litter decomposition. Litter C/N ratios of co-occurring species decreased as broom density increased, yet this had no effect on decomposition rates. Most relationships between broom density and impacts were nonlinear; this could explain some of the reported variation in invasive species impacts across previous studies that do not account for invader density. Ecosystem properties only partially recovered following invader removal, as broom left a legacy of increased N-availability in both soils and litter. Our findings suggest that invasive N-fixer impacts on soil properties, such as N-availability, were more important than changes in litter quality in altering decomposition rates of co-occurring species.     

Evolutionarily labile species interactions and spatial spread of invasive species

Both exotic and native species have been shown to evolve in response to invasions, yet the impacts of rapidly evolving interactions between novel species pairs have been largely ignored in studies of invasive species spread. Here, I use a mathematical model of an interacting invasive predator and its native prey to determine when and how evolutionary lability in one or both species might impact the dynamics of the invader's spatial advance. The model shows that evolutionarily labile invaders continually evolve better adapted phenotypes along the moving invasion front, offering an explanation for accelerating spread and spatial phenotype clines following invasion. I then analytically derive a formula to estimate the relative change in spread rate due to evolution. Using parameter estimates from the literature, this formula shows that moderate heritabilities and selection strengths are sufficient to account for changes in spread rates observed in historical and ongoing invasions. Evolutionarily labile native species can slow invader spread when genes flow from native populations with exposure to the invader into native populations ahead of the invasion front. This outcome is more likely in systems with highly diffuse native dispersal, net directional movement of natives toward the invasion front, or human inoculation of uninvaded native populations.     

Invasion genetics of the introduced black rat (Rattus rattus) in Senegal,West Africa

An understanding of the evolutionary history and dynamics of invasive species is required for the construction of predictive models of future spread and the design of biological management measures. The black rat (Rattus rattus) is a major vertebrate invader with a worldwide distribution. Despite the severe ecological, economic and health impacts of this species, its evolutionary history has been little studied. We carried out extensive specimen sampling in Senegal, West Africa, and used microsatellite markers to describe the pattern and processes of invasion in this large continental area. The genetic data obtained were combined with historical knowledge concerning the presence of this species in Senegal. Data were analysed by a combination of Bayesian clustering and approximate Bayesian computation methods. The invasion pathways closely paralleled the history of human trade routes in Senegal. In several places, we detected the occurrence of multiple introductions from genetically different sources. Long‐distance migration between towns and villages was also observed. Our findings suggest that genetic bottlenecks and admixture have played a major role in shaping the genetics of invasive black rats. These two processes may generate genetic novelty and favour rapid evolution along the invasion pathways.     

Ecological Invasion,Roughened Fronts,and a Competitor’s Extreme Advance: Integrating Stochastic Spatial-Growth Models

Both community ecology and conservation biology seek further understanding of factors governing the advance of an invasive species. We model biological invasion as an individual-based, stochastic process on a two-dimensional landscape. An ecologically superior invader and a resident species compete for space preemptively. Our general model includes the basic contact process and a variant of the Eden model as special cases. We employ the concept of a “roughened” front to quantify effects of discreteness and stochasticity on invasion; we emphasize the probability distribution of the front-runner’s relative position. That is, we analyze the location of the most advanced invader as the extreme deviation about the front’s mean position. We find that a class of models with different assumptions about neighborhood interactions exhibits universal characteristics. That is, key features of the invasion dynamics span a class of models, independently of locally detailed demographic rules. Our results integrate theories of invasive spatial growth and generate novel hypotheses linking habitat or landscape size (length of the invading front) to invasion velocity, and to the relative position of the most advanced invader.     

Species diversity reduces invasion success in pathogen‐regulated communities

The loss of natural enemies is thought to explain why certain invasive species are so spectacularly successful in their introduced range. However, if losing natural enemies leads to unregulated population growth, this implies that native species are themselves normally subject to natural enemy regulation. One possible widespread mechanism of natural enemy regulation is negative soil feedbacks, in which resident species growing on home soils are disadvantaged because of a build‐up of species‐specific soil pathogens. Here we construct simple models in which pathogens cause resident species to suffer reduced competitive ability on home soils and consider the consequences of such pathogen regulation for potential invading species. We show that the probability of successful invasion and its timescale depend strongly on the competitive ability of the invader on resident soils, but are unaffected by whether or not the invader also suffers reduced competitive ability on home soils (i.e. pathogen regulation). This is because, at the start of an invasion, the invader is rare and hence mostly encounters resident soils. However, the lack of pathogen regulation does allow the invader to achieve an unusually high population density. We also show that increasing resident species diversity in a pathogen‐regulated community increases invasion resistance by reducing the frequency of home‐site encounters. Diverse communities are more resistant to invasion than monocultures of the component species: they preclude a greater range of potential invaders, slow the timescale of invasion and reduce invader population size. Thus, widespread pathogen regulation of resident species is a potential explanation for the empirical observation that diverse communities are more invasion resistant.