Increased heat requirement for leaf flushing in temperate woody species over 1980–2012: effects of chilling,precipitation and insolation

Recent studies have revealed large unexplained variation in heat requirement‐based phenology models, resulting in large uncertainty when predicting ecosystem carbon and water balance responses to climate variability. Improving our understanding of the heat requirement for spring phenology is thus urgently needed. In this study, we estimated the species‐specific heat requirement for leaf flushing of 13 temperate woody species using long‐term phenological observations from Europe and North America. The species were defined as early and late flushing species according to the mean date of leaf flushing across all sites. Partial correlation analyses were applied to determine the temporal correlations between heat requirement and chilling accumulation, precipitation and insolation sum during dormancy. We found that the heat requirement for leaf flushing increased by almost 50% over the study period 1980–2012, with an average of 30 heat units per decade. This temporal increase in heat requirement was observed in all species, but was much larger for late than for early flushing species. Consistent with previous studies, we found that the heat requirement negatively correlates with chilling accumulation. Interestingly, after removing the variation induced by chilling accumulation, a predominantly positive partial correlation exists between heat requirement and precipitation sum, and a predominantly negative correlation between heat requirement and insolation sum. This suggests that besides the well‐known effect of chilling, the heat requirement for leaf flushing is also influenced by precipitation and insolation sum during dormancy. However, we hypothesize that the observed precipitation and insolation effects might be artefacts attributable to the inappropriate use of air temperature in the heat requirement quantification. Rather than air temperature, meristem temperature is probably the prominent driver of the leaf flushing process, but these data are not available. Further experimental research is thus needed to verify whether insolation and precipitation sums directly affect the heat requirement for leaf flushing.     

Remote sensing of larch phenological cycle and analysis of relationships with climate in the Alpine region

This research aims at developing a remote sensing technique for monitoring the interannual variability of the European larch phenological cycle in the Alpine region of Aosta Valley (Northern Italy) and to evaluate its relationships with climatic factors. Phenological field observations were conducted in eight test sites from 2005 to 2007 to determine the dates of completion of different phenological phases. MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) 250 m 16‐days normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series were fitted with double logistic curves and the dates corresponding to different features of the curves were determined. Comparison with field data showed that the features of the fitted NDVI curve that allowed the best estimate of the start and end of the growing season were the zeroes of its third derivative (MAE of 6 and 4 days, respectively). The start and end of season were also estimated with the spring warming (SW) and growing season index (GSI) phenological models. MODIS start and end of season dates generally agreed with those obtained by the SW and GSI climate‐driven phenological models. However, phenological models provided erroneous results when applied in years with anomalous meteorological conditions. The relationships between interannual variability of the larch phenological cycle and climate were investigated by comparing the mean start and end of season yearly anomalies with air temperature anomalies. A strong linear relationship (R²=0.91) was found between mean spring temperatures and mean start of season dates, with an increase of 1 °C in mean spring temperature leading to a 7‐day anticipation of mean larch bud‐burst date. Leaf coloring dates were found to be best related with mean September temperature (R²=0.77), but with higher spring temperatures appearing to lead to earlier leaf coloring.     

Phenological responses of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ulmus pumila</Emphasis> (Siberian Elm) to climate change in the temperate zone of China

Using Ulmus pumila (Siberian Elm) leaf unfolding and leaf fall phenological data from 46 stations in the temperate zone of China for the period 1986–2005, we detected linear trends in both start and end dates and length of the growing season. Moreover, we defined the optimum length period during which daily mean temperature affects the growing season start and end dates most markedly at each station in order to more precisely and rationally identify responses of the growing season to temperature. On average, the growing season start date advanced significantly at a rate of −4.0 days per decade, whereas the growing season end date was delayed significantly at a rate of 2.2 days per decade and the growing season length was prolonged significantly at a rate of 6.5 days per decade across the temperate zone of China. Thus, the growing season extension was induced mainly by the advancement of the start date. At individual stations, linear trends of the start date correlate negatively with linear trends of spring temperature during the optimum length period, namely, the quicker the spring temperature increased at a station, the quicker the start date advanced. With respect to growing season response to interannual temperature variation, a 1°C increase in spring temperature during the optimum length period may induce an advancement of 2.8 days in the start date of the growing season, whereas a 1°C increase in autumn temperature during the optimum length period may cause a delay of 2.1 days in the end date of the growing season, and a 1°C increase in annual mean temperature may result in a lengthening of the growing season of 9 days across the temperate zone of China. Therefore, the response of the start date to temperature is more sensitive than the response of the end date. At individual stations, the sensitivity of growing season response to temperature depends obviously on local thermal conditions, namely, either the negative response of the start date or the positive response of the end date and growing season length to temperature was stronger at warmer locations than at colder locations. Thus, future regional climate warming may enhance the sensitivity of plant phenological response to temperature, especially in colder regions.     

Phenology model from surface meteorology does not capture satellite-based greenup estimations

Seasonal temperature change in temperate forests is known to trigger the start of spring growth, and both interannual and spatial variations in spring onset have been tied to climatic variability. Satellite dates are increasingly being used in phenology studies, but to date that has been little effort to link remotely sensed phenology to surface climate records. In this research, we use a two‐parameter spring warming phenology model to explore the relationship between climate and satellite‐based phenology. We employ daily air temperature records between 2000 and 2005 for 171 National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration weather stations located throughout New England to construct spring warming models predicting the onset of spring, as defined by the date of half‐maximum greenness (D₅₀) in deciduous forests as detected from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer. The best spring warming model starts accumulating temperatures after March 20th and when average daily temperatures exceed 5°C. The accumulated heat sums [heating degree day (HDD)] required to reach D₅₀ range from 150 to 300 degree days over New England, with the highest requirements to the south and in coastal regions. We test the ability of the spring warming model to predict phenology against a null photoperiod model (average date of onset). The spring warming model offers little improvement on the null model when predicting D₅₀. Differences between the efficacies of the two models are expressed as the ‘climate sensitivity ratio’ (CSR), which displays coherent spatial patterns. Our results suggest that northern (beech‐maple‐birch) and central (oak‐hickory) hardwood forests respond to climate differently, particularly with disparate requirements for the minimum temperature necessary to begin spring growth (3 and 6°C, respectively). We conclude that spatial location and species composition are critical factors for predicting the phenological response to climate change: satellite observations cannot be linked directly to temperature variability if species or community compositions are unknown.     

北京地区木本春季物候特征与生物学特性的关系

植物物候是植物生活史中的重要性状,也是指示气候与自然环境变化的重要指标,现已成为全球变化领域的研究热点之一。传统物候研究多假设物候由气候因素决定,如气温、降水、光照等,并主要从植物物候的年际变化角度探讨了气候因素对物候特征的影响。然而,不同物种的物候存在较大差异表明植物物候还与自身生物学特性（如系统发育和功能性状）有关,但植物生物学特性如何影响植物物候仍缺乏深入研究。基于北京地区44种木本植物1965-2018年的展叶始期和开花始期观测资料,以展叶始期和开花始期的3类物候特征（平均物候期、物候对温度的响应敏感度和物候期的积温需求）为例,探究植物物候特征与系统发育和功能性状的关系。首先,利用系统发育信号Blomberg’s K和进化模型检验植物物候特征是否具有系统发育保守性,并通过系统发育信号表征曲线直观表达植物物候特征的进化模式;之后,利用广义估计方程分析植物生活型、传粉型与物候特征的关系,以揭示不同植物的资源利用方式及生存策略的差异。研究发现：（1）除展叶始期的温度敏感度外,其余物候特征的进化均受随机遗传漂变和自然选择力的共同作用,可推断物候特征具有系统发育保守性,即亲缘关系越近的物种物候特征越相似。（2）开花始期的系统发育信号强度比展叶始期更大,表明繁殖物候的系统发育可能比生长物候更保守。（3）植物展叶始期及其积温需求与生活型密切相关。灌木比乔木的展叶时间早、积温需求少。植物开花始期与传粉型相关,风媒植物开花显著早于虫媒植物。研究成果有助于深入理解物候变化的生物学机制,对于丰富物候学的理论研究有重要意义,同时对植物保护也具有重要的指导价值。     

Changes in temperature sensitivity of spring phenology with recent climate warming in Switzerland are related to shifts of the preseason

The spring phenology of plants in temperate regions strongly responds to spring temperatures. Climate warming has caused substantial phenological advances in the past, but trends to be expected in the future are uncertain. A simple indicator is temperature sensitivity, the phenological advance statistically associated with a 1°C warmer mean temperature during the “preseason”, defined as the most temperature‐sensitive period preceding the phenological event. Recent analyses of phenological records have shown a decline in temperature sensitivity of leaf unfolding, but underlying mechanisms were not clear. Here, we propose that climate warming can reduce temperature sensitivity simply by reducing the length of the preseason due to faster bud development during this time period, unless the entire preseason shifts forward so that its temperature does not change. We derive these predictions theoretically from the widely used “thermal time model” for bud development and test them using data for 19 phenological events recorded in 1970–2012 at 108 stations spanning a 1600 m altitudinal range in Switzerland. We consider how temperature sensitivity, preseason start, preseason length and preseason temperature change (i) with altitude, (ii) between the periods 1970–1987 and 1995–2012, which differed mainly in spring temperatures, and (iii) between two non‐consecutive sets of 18 years that differed mainly in winter temperatures. On average, temperature sensitivity increased with altitude (colder climate) and was reduced in years with warmer springs, but not in years with warmer winters. These trends also varied among species. Decreasing temperature sensitivity in warmer springs was associated with a limited forward shift of preseason start, higher temperatures during the preseason and reduced preseason length, but not with reduced winter chilling. Our results imply that declining temperature sensitivity can result directly from spring warming and does not necessarily indicate altered physiological responses or stronger constraints such as reduced winter chilling.     

Climate change and extension of the Ginkgo biloba L. growing season in Japan

To understand the effects of climate change on the growing season of plants in Japan, we conducted trend analysis of phenological phases and examined the relationship between phenology and air temperatures. We used phenological data for Ginkgo biloba L., collected from 1953 to 2000. We defined the beginning and the end of the growing season (BGS and EGS) as the dates of budding and leaf fall, respectively. Changes in the air temperature in the 45 days before the date of BGS affected annual variation in BGS. The annual variation in air temperature over the 85 days before EGS affected the date of EGS. The average annual air temperature in Japan has increased by 1.3°C over the last four decades (1961–2000), and this increase has caused changes in ginkgo phenology. In the last five decades (1953–2000), BGS has occurred approximately 4 days earlier than previously, and EGS has occurred about 8 days later. Consequently, since 1953 the length of the growing season (LGS) has been extended by 12 days. Since around 1970, LGS and air temperatures have shown increasing trends. Although many researchers have stated that phenological events are not affected by the air temperature in the fall, we found high correlations not only between budding dates and air temperatures in spring but also between leaf‐fall dates and air temperatures in autumn. If the mean annual air temperature increases by 1°C, LGS could be extended by 10 days. We also examined the spatial distribution of the rate of LGS extension, but we did not find an obvious relationship between LGS extension and latitude.     

Chilling and forcing temperatures interact to predict the onset of wood formation in Northern Hemisphere conifers

The phenology of wood formation is a critical process to consider for predicting how trees from the temperate and boreal zones may react to climate change. Compared to leaf phenology, however, the determinism of wood phenology is still poorly known. Here, we compared for the first time three alternative ecophysiological model classes (threshold models, heat‐sum models and chilling‐influenced heat‐sum models) and an empirical model in their ability to predict the starting date of xylem cell enlargement in spring, for four major Northern Hemisphere conifers (Larix decidua, Pinus sylvestris, Picea abies and Picea mariana). We fitted models with Bayesian inference to wood phenological data collected for 220 site‐years over Europe and Canada. The chilling‐influenced heat‐sum model received most support for all the four studied species, predicting validation data with a 7.7‐day error, which is within one day of the observed data resolution. We conclude that both chilling and forcing temperatures determine the onset of wood formation in Northern Hemisphere conifers. Importantly, the chilling‐influenced heat‐sum model showed virtually no spatial bias whichever the species, despite the large environmental gradients considered. This suggests that the spring onset of wood formation is far less affected by local adaptation than by environmentally driven plasticity. In a context of climate change, we therefore expect rising winter–spring temperature to exert ambivalent effects on the spring onset of wood formation, tending to hasten it through the accumulation of forcing temperature, but imposing a higher forcing temperature requirement through the lower accumulation of chilling.     

Physiological time model for predicting adult emergence of western corn rootworm (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) in the Texas High Plains

Field observations at three locations in the Texas High Plains were used to develop and validate a degree-day phenology model to predict the onset and proportional emergence of adult Diabrotica virgifera virgifera LeConte (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) adults. Climatic data from the Texas High Plains Potential Evapotranspiration network were used with records of cumulative proportional adult emergence to determine the functional lower developmental temperature, optimum starting date, and the sum of degree-days for phenological events from onset to 99% adult emergence. The model base temperature, 10 degrees C (50 degrees F), corresponds closely to known physiological lower limits for development. The model uses a modified Gompertz equation, y = 96.5 x exp (-(exp(6.0 - 0.00404 x (x - 4.0), where x is cumulative heat (degree-days), to predict y, cumulative proportional emergence expressed as a percentage. The model starts degree-day accumulation on the date of corn, Zea mays L., emergence, and predictions correspond closely to corn phenological stages from tasseling to black layer development. Validation shows the model predicts cumulative proportional adult emergence within a satisfactory interval of 4.5 d. The model is flexible enough to accommodate early planting, late emergence, and the effects of drought and heat stress. The model provides corn producers ample lead time to anticipate and implement adult control practices.     

Detecting nonlinear response of spring phenology to climate change by Bayesian analysis

The impact of climate change on the advancement of plant phenological events has been heavily studied in the last decade. Although the majority of spring plant phenological events have been trending earlier, this is not universally true. Recent work has suggested that species that are not advancing in their spring phenological behavior are responding more to lack of winter chill than increased spring heat. One way to test this hypothesis is by evaluating the behavior of a species known to have a moderate to high chilling requirement and examining how it is responding to increased warming. This study used a 60‐year data set for timing of leaf‐out and male flowering of walnut (Juglans regia) cultivar ‘Payne’ to examine this issue. The spring phenological behavior of ‘Payne’ walnut differed depending on bud type. The vegetative buds, which have a higher chilling requirement, trended toward earlier leaf‐out until about 1994, when they shifted to later leaf‐out. The date of male bud pollen shedding advanced over the course of the whole record. Our findings suggest that many species which have exhibited earlier bud break are responding to warmer spring temperatures, but may shift into responding more to winter temperatures (lack of adequate chilling) as warming continues.     

莎车巴旦姆物候期对气象条件的响应及花期预测模型

利用莎车县农业气象试验站2008—2013年巴旦姆物候期和同期气象观测资料,分析了巴旦姆物候期的变化特征以及气温、日照时数对物候期的影响.结果表明：巴旦姆花期之前的物候期始日之间均呈正相关,与花期之后的物候期始日的相关性大多较小,花芽膨大早迟与休眠期、生长期天数分别呈极显著的正相关和负相关.以果实成熟期为界,气温对之前、之后物候期间隔日数的影响分别为负相关和正相关,日照时数与物候期间隔日数大多为正相关.果实成熟 叶变色始期间隔日数对平均最高气温以及花序出现 开花末期、叶变色始期 落叶末期间隔日数对日照时数存在明显的响应.当巴旦姆休眠期符合日平均气温-3.0～-7.5 ℃的天数满30 d后,经过17～28 d将进入花芽萌动期.花芽萌动期、开花始期、叶变色始期和落叶末期的始日分别与首个候平均气温≥4 ℃且候平均最高气温≥12 ℃、春季侯平均气温≥14 ℃且侯平均最高气温≥22 ℃、秋季首个侯平均气温≤10 ℃且侯平均最高气温≤18 ℃和冬季首个侯平均气温≤1.9 ℃的候序一一对应.利用偏最小二乘法回归分析,建立巴旦姆盛花期始日预测模型,经过检验模型效果较好.     

Latitudinal patterns in the phenological responses of leaf colouring and leaf fall to climate change in Japan

Aim  To estimate the potential effect of global climate change on the phenological responses of plants it is necessary to estimate spatial variations at larger scales. However, previous studies have not estimated latitudinal patterns in the phenological response directly. We hypothesized that the phenological response of plants varies with latitude, and estimated the phenological response to long-term climate change using autumn phenological events that have been delayed by recent climate change.
Location  Japan.
Methods  We used a 53-year data set to document the latitudinal patterns in the climate responses of the timing of autumn leaf colouring and fall for two tree species over a wide range of latitudes in Japan (31 to 44° N). We calculated single regression slopes for leaf phenological timing and air temperature across Japan and tested their latitudinal patterns using regression models. The effects of latitude, time and their interaction on the responses of the phenological timings were also estimated using generalized linear mixed models.
Results  Our results showed that single regression slopes of leaf phenological timing and air temperature in autumn were positive at most stations. Higher temperatures can delay the timing of leaf phenology. Negative relationships were found between the phenological response of leaves to temperature and latitude. Single regression slopes of the phenological responses at lower latitudes were larger than those at higher latitudes.
Main conclusions  We found negative relationships between leaf phenological responsiveness and latitude. These findings will be important for predicting phenological timing with global climate change.     

Spatial and temporal variation of phenological growing season and climate change impacts in temperate eastern China

Using phenological and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data from 1982 to 1993 at seven sample stations in temperate eastern China, we calculated the cumulative frequency of leaf unfolding and leaf coloration dates for deciduous species every 5 days throughout the study period. Then, we determined the growing season beginning and end dates by computing times when 50% of the species had undergone leaf unfolding and leaf coloration for each station year. Next, we used these beginning and end dates of the growing season as time markers to determine corresponding threshold NDVI values on NDVI curves for the pixels overlaying phenological stations. Based on a cluster analysis, we determined extrapolation areas for each phenological station in every year, and then implemented the spatial extrapolation of growing season parameters from the seven sample stations to all possible meteorological stations in the study area. Results show that spatial patterns of growing season beginning and end dates correlate significantly with spatial patterns of mean air temperatures in spring and autumn, respectively. Contrasting with results from similar studies in Europe and North America, our study suggests that there is a significant delay in leaf coloration dates, along with a less pronounced advance of leaf unfolding dates in different latitudinal zones and the whole area from 1982 to 1993. The growing season has been extended by 1.4–3.6 days per year in the northern zones and by 1.4 days per year across the entire study area on average. The apparent delay in growing season end dates is associated with regional cooling from late spring to summer, while the insignificant advancement in beginning dates corresponds to inconsistent temperature trend changes from late winter to spring. On an interannual basis, growing season beginning and end dates correlate negatively with mean air temperatures from February to April and from May to June, respectively.     

气候变暖背景下青藏高原草本植物物候变化空间换时间预测

气候变暖背景下的植物物候变化广受关注, 然而常用的植物物候变化预测模型未充分考虑植物对环境的适应性, 给预测结果带来了较大的不确定性。该文基于2002-2011年青藏高原10个站点的地面物候观测资料以及年平均气温数据, 对空间换时间模型预测车前(Plantago asiatica)和蒲公英(Taraxacum mongolicum)各主要物候事件(展叶始期、开花始期和黄枯普遍期)变化的可行性及其在升温背景下的变化规律进行了分析。首先利用不同海拔高度的气温和物候事件分别与地理因子(经度、纬度和海拔)建立多元线性回归模型, 然后在此基础上剔除经度和纬度的影响, 单独考察海拔变化所引起的气温与植物物候变化, 最后以海拔高度作为桥梁来考察物候变化与温度变化的关系。结果表明, 采用各站点对应的海拔高度来模拟年平均气温空间差异的R²均大于0.89, 表明海拔梯度可以用来反映时间尺度下的年际温度变化; 车前和蒲公英各物候事件发生日期拟合值均与海拔高度变化关系显著, R²均大于0.70, 表明海拔变化是影响它们各物候事件变化的主要地理因子; 在物候事件发生日期拟合值和年平均气温拟合值的回归方程中, R²均大于0.93, 说明基于不同海拔高度模拟得到的年平均气温变化可以对时间尺度上车前和蒲公英的物候事件变化进行预测。空间换时间预测表明, 温度每升高1 ℃, 车前展叶始期和开花始期分别提前5.1和5.4 d, 而黄枯普遍期推迟4.8 d; 蒲公英展叶始期和开花始期分别提前6.5和7.8 d, 而黄枯普遍期推迟6.7 d。     

Predicting phenology shifts of herbaceous plants on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau under climate warming with the space-for-time method

气候变暖背景下的植物物候变化广受关注, 然而常用的植物物候变化预测模型未充分考虑植物对环境的适应性, 给预测结果带来了较大的不确定性。该文基于2002-2011年青藏高原10个站点的地面物候观测资料以及年平均气温数据, 对空间换时间模型预测车前(Plantago asiatica)和蒲公英(Taraxacum mongolicum)各主要物候事件(展叶始期、开花始期和黄枯普遍期)变化的可行性及其在升温背景下的变化规律进行了分析。首先利用不同海拔高度的气温和物候事件分别与地理因子(经度、纬度和海拔)建立多元线性回归模型, 然后在此基础上剔除经度和纬度的影响, 单独考察海拔变化所引起的气温与植物物候变化, 最后以海拔高度作为桥梁来考察物候变化与温度变化的关系。结果表明, 采用各站点对应的海拔高度来模拟年平均气温空间差异的R²均大于0.89, 表明海拔梯度可以用来反映时间尺度下的年际温度变化; 车前和蒲公英各物候事件发生日期拟合值均与海拔高度变化关系显著, R²均大于0.70, 表明海拔变化是影响它们各物候事件变化的主要地理因子; 在物候事件发生日期拟合值和年平均气温拟合值的回归方程中, R²均大于0.93, 说明基于不同海拔高度模拟得到的年平均气温变化可以对时间尺度上车前和蒲公英的物候事件变化进行预测。空间换时间预测表明, 温度每升高1 ℃, 车前展叶始期和开花始期分别提前5.1和5.4 d, 而黄枯普遍期推迟4.8 d; 蒲公英展叶始期和开花始期分别提前6.5和7.8 d, 而黄枯普遍期推迟6.7 d。     

Trends in phenological phases in Europe between 1951 and 1996

Increases in air temperature due to the anthropogenic greenhouse effect can be detected easily in the phenological data of Europe within the last four decades because spring phenological events are particularly sensitive to temperature. Our new analysis of observational data from the International Phenological Gardens in Europe for the 1959–1996 period revealed that spring events, such as leaf unfolding, have advanced on average by 6.3 days (–0.21 day/year), whereas autumn events, such as leaf colouring, have been delayed on average by 4.5 days (+0.15 day/year). Thus, the average annual growing season has lengthened on average by 10.8 days since the early 1960s. For autumn events, differences between mean trends of species could not be detected, but for spring events there were differences between species, with the higher trends for leaf unfolding and flowering of shrubs indicating that changes in events occurring in the early spring are more distinct. These observed trends in plant phenological events in the International Phenological Gardens and results of other phenological studies in Europe, summarised in this study, are consistent with AVHRR satellite measurements of the normalized difference vegetation index from 1981 to 1991 and with an analysis of long-term measurements of the annual cycle of CO₂ concentration in Hawaii and Alaska, also indicating a global lengthening of the growing season. Received: 21 October 1999 / Accepted: 2 March 2000     

Predicting the seedling emergence time of sugar beet (Beta vulgaris) using beta models

Soil temperature, texture, water content and sowing depth are effective factors on the estimation of emergence time. This research aimed to test the Beta model for its adequacy in predicting the time of emergence for sugar beet. The Beta growth model as a phenological model have been used for evaluating the time of seedling emergences under both controlled environments in laboratory and field conditions. An experiment was conducted both in the laboratory with five soil textures, three sowing depths, five soil water contents and ten constant soil temperatures, under field conditions on five sowing dates (20 February, 28 March, 19 April, 10 May, and 31 May) and three sowing depths. The results demonstrated that the Beta model can predict the time of emergence. Based on the root mean square error (RMSE), the time of emergence estimated by the Beta model was in high agreement with the time of emergence measured in the laboratory. Estimation accuracy was reduced slightly by the Beta model under field conditions. The accuracy of the Beta model was influenced by the sowing date under field conditions. So, on the first and second sowing dates (with low air temperature), the estimation of time of emergence by the model was lower and on the fourth and the fifth sowing date (with warmer air temperature), was more than the duration measured. Estimation accuracy was increased by the Beta model under field conditions using soil temperature. In conclusion, the Beta model can predict the time to emergence of sugar beet seedlings in different levels of soil texture and soil water content under field conditions, and with that, the proper planting date for sugar beet seeds to overcome weeds in different soil water content can be predicted.     

Larger temperature response of autumn leaf senescence than spring leaf‐out phenology

Climate warming is substantially shifting the leaf phenological events of plants, and thereby impacting on their individual fitness and also on the structure and functioning of ecosystems. Previous studies have largely focused on the climate impact on spring phenology, and to date the processes underlying leaf senescence and their associated environmental drivers remain poorly understood. In this study, experiments with temperature gradients imposed during the summer and autumn were conducted on saplings of European beech to explore the temperature responses of leaf senescence. An additional warming experiment during winter enabled us to assess the differences in temperature responses of spring leaf‐out and autumn leaf senescence. We found that warming significantly delayed the dates of leaf senescence both during summer and autumn warming, with similar temperature sensitivities (6–8 days delay per °C warming), suggesting that, in the absence of water and nutrient limitation, temperature may be a dominant factor controlling the leaf senescence in European beech. Interestingly, we found a significantly larger temperature response of autumn leaf senescence than of spring leaf‐out. This suggests a possible larger contribution of delays in autumn senescence, than of the advancement in spring leaf‐out, to extending the growing season under future warmer conditions.     

Effect of open-field experimental warming on the leaf phenology of oriental oak (Quercus variabilis) seedlings

Aims An open-field warming experiment enables us to test the effects of projected temperature increase on change in plant phenology with fewer confounding factors and to study phenological response to temperature ranges beyond natural variability. This study aims to (i) examine the effect of temperature increase on leaf unfolding and senescence of oriental oak (Quercus variabilis Blume) under experimental warming and (ii) measure temperature-related parameters used in estimating phenological response to temperature elevation.Methods Using an open-field warming system with infrared heaters, we increased the air temperature by ~3°C in the warmed plots compared with that of the control plots consistently for 2 years. Leaf unfolding and senescence dates of Q. variabilis seedlings were recorded and temperature-related phenological parameters were analysed.Important findings The timing of leaf unfolding was advanced by 3–8 days (1.1–3.0 days/°C) and the date of leaf senescence was delayed by 14–19 days (5.0–7.3 days/°C) under elevated air temperatures. However, the cumulative degree days (CDD) of leaf unfolding were not significantly changed by experimental warming, which suggest the applicability of a constant CDD value to estimate the change in spring leaf phenology under 3°C warming. Consistent ranges of advancement and temperature sensitivity in spring phenology and delayed autumn phenology and proposed temperature parameters from this study might be applied to predict future phenological change.     

Seasonal coincidence between rosy apple aphid fundatrices and their parasitoids: implications for an early biological control of Dysaphis plantaginea

The potential contribution of the aphid parasitoid Ephedrus persicae Froggatt (Hymenoptera: Braconidae, Aphidiinae) in regulating stem mothers of the rosy apple aphid Dysaphis plantaginea (Passerini) (Homoptera: Aphididae) was investigated in culture conditions using both species' phenological emergence data in spring and host stage suitability trials. In 2003, emergence of E. persicae started on April 1st, i.e., 108.2 degree-days (base: 4.5 degrees C; start date: January 1st) later than its host on March 10th. When less than 3% of parasitoids had emerged on April 12th, more than 97% of D. plantaginea stem mothers had moulted beyond their 1st instar. The latest parasitoids left their diapause mummies in late April as the majority of fundatrices had reached the adult stage. Parasitisation trials demonstrated the suitability for E. persicae of all developmental stages of rosy apple aphid fundatrices, including mature individuals. No offspring were deposited by fundatrices parasitised as Ist-instar nymphs but later instars did produce a progeny whose size was substantially reduced compared with unparasitised individuals, and scaled against their age at the time of parasitisation. Although the temperature accumulation required for emergence in spring is reached later for E. persicae than for its host aphids, thus allowing part of the stem mother population to temporarily escape parasitisation and reach maturity, the marked reduction in fecundity of individuals parasitised even as late-instar nymphs does confer to E. persicae a non-negligible role in potentially regulating D. plantaginea.