Re-assessing current extinction rates

There is a widespread belief that we are experiencing a mass extinction event similar in severity to previous mass extinction events in the last 600 million years where up to 95% of species disappeared. This paper reviews evidence for current extinctions and different methods of assessing extinction rates including species–area relationships and loss of tropical forests, changing threat status of species, co-extinction rates and modelling the impact of climate change. For 30 years some have suggested that extinctions through tropical forest loss are occurring at a rate of up to 100 species a day and yet less than 1,200 extinctions have been recorded in the last 400 years. Reasons for low number of identified global extinctions are suggested here and include success in protecting many endangered species, poor monitoring of most of the rest of species and their level of threat, extinction debt where forests have been lost but species still survive, that regrowth forests may be important in retaining ‘old growth’ species, fewer co-extinctions of species than expected, and large differences in the vulnerability of different taxa to extinction threats. More recently, others have suggested similar rates of extinction to earlier estimates but with the key cause of extinction being climate change, and in particular rising temperatures, rather than deforestation alone. Here I suggest that climate change, rather than deforestation is likely to bring about such high levels of extinction since the impacts of climate change are local to global and that climate change is acting synergistically with a range of other threats to biodiversity including deforestation.     

Characterizing a tropical deforestation wave: a dynamic spatial analysis of a deforestation hotspot in the Colombian Amazon

Tropical deforestation is the major contemporary threat to global biodiversity, because a diminishing extent of tropical forests supports the majority of the Earth's biodiversity. Forest clearing is often spatially concentrated in regions where human land use pressures, either planned or unplanned, increase the likelihood of deforestation. However, it is not a random process, but often moves in waves originating from settled areas. We investigate the spatial dynamics of land cover change in a tropical deforestation hotspot in the Colombian Amazon. We apply a forest cover zoning approach which permitted: calculation of colonization speed; comparative spatial analysis of patterns of deforestation and regeneration; analysis of spatial patterns of mature and recently regenerated forests; and the identification of local‐level hotspots experiencing the fastest deforestation or regeneration. The colonization frontline moved at an average of 0.84 km yr^?1 from 1989 to 2002, resulting in the clearing of 3400 ha yr^?1 of forests beyond the 90% forest cover line. The dynamics of forest clearing varied across the colonization front according to the amount of forest in the landscape, but was spatially concentrated in well‐defined ‘local hotspots’ of deforestation and forest regeneration. Behind the deforestation front, the transformed landscape mosaic is composed of cropping and grazing lands interspersed with mature forest fragments and patches of recently regenerated forests. We discuss the implications of the patterns of forest loss and fragmentation for biodiversity conservation within a framework of dynamic conservation planning.     

Conserving Southeast Asia’s imperiled biodiversity: scientific,management, and policy challenges

Southeast Asia was almost entirely covered by rainforest 8,000 years ago. Today, this region is experiencing the highest relative rates of deforestation and forest degradation in the humid tropics. Every year, millions of hectares of tropical forests are destroyed and degraded. Given the rapid rate of deforestation and the high concentration of endemic species in the region, Southeast Asia could lose 13–42% of local populations by the turn of the next century, at least 50% of which could represent global species extinction. In this Special Issue, we discuss the uniqueness of Southeast Asian biodiversity, drivers of forest destruction, threats to the region’s unique ecosystems and taxa, and key conservation challenges to provide a broad-based review of the science, management and policy issues concerning biodiversity conservation. Overall, we highlight the need for an interdisciplinary and multi-pronged strategy requiring all major stakeholders to work together to achieve the ultimate goal of reconciling biodiversity conservation and human well-being in the region.     

Anthropogenic impacts on tropical forest biodiversity: a network structure and ecosystem functioning perspective

Huge areas of diverse tropical forest are lost or degraded every year with dramatic consequences for biodiversity. Deforestation and fragmentation, over-exploitation, invasive species and climate change are the main drivers of tropical forest biodiversity loss. Most studies investigating these threats have focused on changes in species richness or species diversity. However, if we are to understand the absolute and long-term effects of anthropogenic impacts on tropical forests, we should also consider the interactions between species, how those species are organized in networks, and the function that those species perform. I discuss our current knowledge of network structure and ecosystem functioning, highlighting empirical examples of their response to anthropogenic impacts. I consider the future prospects for tropical forest biodiversity, focusing on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in secondary forest. Finally, I propose directions for future research to help us better understand the effects of anthropogenic impacts on tropical forest biodiversity.     

Deforestation and Forest Fragmentation in South Ecuador since the 1970s – Losing a Hotspot of Biodiversity

Deforestation and fragmentation are major components of global change; both are contributing to the rapid loss of tropical forest area with important implications for ecosystem functioning and biodiversity conservation. The forests of South Ecuador are a biological ‘hotspot’ due to their high diversity and endemism levels. We examined the deforestation and fragmentation patterns in this area of high conservation value using aerial photographs and Aster satellite scenes. The registered annual deforestation rates of 0.75% (1976–1989) and 2.86% (1989–2008) for two consecutive survey periods, the decreasing mean patch size and the increasing isolation of the forest fragments show that the area is under severe threat. Approximately 46% of South Ecuador’s original forest cover had been converted by 2008 into pastures and other anthropogenic land cover types. We found that deforestation is more intense at lower elevations (premontane evergreen forest and shrubland) and that the deforestation front currently moves in upslope direction. Improved awareness of the spatial extent, dynamics and patterns of deforestation and forest fragmentation is urgently needed in biologically diverse areas like South Ecuador.     

Spatial and temporal deforestation dynamics in protected and unprotected dry forests: a case study from Myanmar (Burma)

Tropical dry forests are more threatened, less protected and especially susceptible to deforestation. However, most deforestation research focuses on tropical rain forests. We analyzed spatial and temporal changes in land cover from 1972 through 2005 at Chatthin Wildlife Sanctuary (CWS), a tropical dry forest in Myanmar (Burma). CWS is one of the largest protected patches of tropical dry forest in Southeast Asia and supports over half the remaining wild population of the endangered Eld’s deer. Between 1973 and 2005, 62% of forest was lost at an annual rate of 1.86% in the area, while forest loss inside CWS was only 16% (0.45% annually). Based on trends found during our study period, dry forests outside CWS would not persist beyond 2019, while forests inside CWS would persist for at least another 100 years. Analysis of temporal deforestation patterns indicates the highest rate of loss occurred between 1992 and 2001. Conversion to agriculture, shifting agriculture, and flooding from a hydro-electric development were the main deforestation drivers. Fragmentation was also severe, halving the area of suitable Eld’s deer habitat between 1973 and 2001, and increasing its isolation. CWS protection efforts were effective in reducing deforestation rates, although deforestation effects extended up to 2 km into the sanctuary. Establishing new protected areas for dry forests and finding ways to mitigate human impacts on existing forests are both needed to protect remaining dry forests and the species they support.     

Tropical forests and the changing earth system

Tropical forests are global epicentres of biodiversity and important modulators of the rate of climate change. Recent research on deforestation rates and ecological changes within intact forests, both areas of recent research and debate, are reviewed, and the implications for biodiversity (species loss) and climate change (via the global carbon cycle) addressed. Recent impacts have most likely been: (i) a large source of carbon to the atmosphere, and major loss of species, from deforestation and (ii) a large carbon sink within remaining intact forest, accompanied by accelerating forest dynamism and widespread biodiversity changes. Finally, I look to the future, suggesting that the current carbon sink in intact forests is unlikely to continue, and that the tropical forest biome may even become a large net source of carbon, via one or more of four plausible routes: changing photosynthesis and respiration rates, biodiversity changes in intact forest, widespread forest collapse via drought, and widespread forest collapse via fire. Each of these scenarios risks potentially dangerous positive feedbacks with the climate system that could dramatically accelerate and intensify climate change. Given that continued land-use change alone is already thought to be causing the sixth mass extinction event in Earth's history, should such feedbacks occur, the resulting biodiversity and societal consequences would be even more severe.     

Forest Conversion and Degradation in Papua New Guinea 1972–2002

Quantifying forest change in the tropics is important because of the role these forests play in the conservation of biodiversity and the global carbon cycle. One of the world's largest remaining areas of tropical forest is located in Papua New Guinea. Here we show that change in its extent and condition has occurred to a greater extent than previously recorded. We assessed deforestation and forest degradation in Papua New Guinea by comparing a land-cover map from 1972 with a land-cover map created from nationwide high-resolution satellite imagery recorded since 2002. In 2002 there were 28,251,967 ha of tropical rain forest. Between 1972 and 2002, a net 15 percent of Papua New Guinea's tropical forests were cleared and 8.8 percent were degraded through logging. The drivers of forest change have been concentrated within the accessible forest estate where a net 36 percent were degraded or deforested through both forestry and nonforestry processes. Since 1972, 13 percent of upper montane forests have also been lost. We estimate that over the period 1990–2002, overall rates of change generally increased and varied between 0.8 and 1.8 percent/yr, while rates in commercially accessible forest have been far higher—having varied between 1.1 and 3.4 percent/yr. These rates are far higher than those reported by the FAO over the same period. We conclude that rapid and substantial forest change has occurred in Papua New Guinea, with the major drivers being logging in the lowland forests and subsistence agriculture throughout the country with comparatively minor contributions from forest fires, plantation establishment, and mining.     

Thinner bark increases sensitivity of wetter Amazonian tropical forests to fire

Understory fires represent an accelerating threat to Amazonian tropical forests and can, during drought, affect larger areas than deforestation itself. These fires kill trees at rates varying from < 10 to c. 90% depending on fire intensity, forest disturbance history and tree functional traits. Here, we examine variation in bark thickness across the Amazon. Bark can protect trees from fires, but it is often assumed to be consistently thin across tropical forests. Here, we show that investment in bark varies, with thicker bark in dry forests and thinner in wetter forests. We also show that thinner bark translated into higher fire‐driven tree mortality in wetter forests, with between 0.67 and 5.86 gigatonnes CO₂ lost in Amazon understory fires between 2001 and 2010. Trait‐enabled global vegetation models that explicitly include variation in bark thickness are likely to improve the predictions of fire effects on carbon cycling in tropical forests.     

Unreported yet massive deforestation driving loss of endemic biodiversity in Indian Himalaya

Deforestation is a primary driver of biotic extinctions in the tropics. The impacts of deforestation in tropical biodiversity hotspots are of particular concern because these regions contain high concentrations of globally endemic species. However, the effects of large-scale deforestation on native biotas within the biodiversity hotspot of Himalaya remain poorly documented. Here we report on an alarming trend of deforestation in the Indian Himalaya and project the likely consequential extinctions of endemic taxa (species and subspecies) by 2100 across a broad range of taxonomic groups, including gymnosperms, angiosperms, fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals. With the current level of deforestation, by 2100 only about 10% of the land area of the Indian Himalaya will be covered by dense forest (>40% canopy cover)—a scenario in which almost a quarter of the endemic species could be wiped out, including 366 endemic vascular plant taxa and 35 endemic vertebrate taxa. We also show that inaccurate reporting of forest cover data by governmental institutions can result in underestimations of the biological impacts of deforestation, as well as potential miscalculations in land-use decisions (e.g., the construction of hydroelectric dams). Large-scale conservation efforts, including forest protection and reforestation, are urgently needed to avoid the impending deforestation-driven biodiversity losses in the Himalaya.     

Forest fragmentation and selective logging have inconsistent effects on multiple animal-mediated ecosystem processes in a tropical forest

Forest fragmentation and selective logging are two main drivers of global environmental change and modify biodiversity and environmental conditions in many tropical forests. The consequences of these changes for the functioning of tropical forest ecosystems have rarely been explored in a comprehensive approach. In a Kenyan rainforest, we studied six animal-mediated ecosystem processes and recorded species richness and community composition of all animal taxa involved in these processes. We used linear models and a formal meta-analysis to test whether forest fragmentation and selective logging affected ecosystem processes and biodiversity and used structural equation models to disentangle direct from biodiversity-related indirect effects of human disturbance on multiple ecosystem processes. Fragmentation increased decomposition and reduced antbird predation, while selective logging consistently increased pollination, seed dispersal and army-ant raiding. Fragmentation modified species richness or community composition of five taxa, whereas selective logging did not affect any component of biodiversity. Changes in the abundance of functionally important species were related to lower predation by antbirds and higher decomposition rates in small forest fragments. The positive effects of selective logging on bee pollination, bird seed dispersal and army-ant raiding were direct, i.e. not related to changes in biodiversity, and were probably due to behavioural changes of these highly mobile animal taxa. We conclude that animal-mediated ecosystem processes respond in distinct ways to different types of human disturbance in Kakamega Forest. Our findings suggest that forest fragmentation affects ecosystem processes indirectly by changes in biodiversity, whereas selective logging influences processes directly by modifying local environmental conditions and resource distributions. The positive to neutral effects of selective logging on ecosystem processes show that the functionality of tropical forests can be maintained in moderately disturbed forest fragments. Conservation concepts for tropical forests should thus include not only remaining pristine forests but also functionally viable forest remnants.     

A recent history of forest fragmentation in southwestern Ivory Coast

This study provides monitoring and spatial analysis of forest fragmentation based on high-resolution remote sensing, in order to give a framework for assessing residual biodiversity in the Guiglo-Taï region. Massive deforestation has taken place, mainly in the last 20 years, 79% of unprotected forests have been eliminated on the 100 × 100 km study area. Deforestation is also beginning to encroach on protected areas. Forest fragments are mainly found close to the deforestation front. In areas which were first deforested, forest fragments are very scarce and are restricted to less productive soils; they are often severely degraded. Young secondary forests develop on abandoned fields, but primary forest regeneration seems unlikely in light of the distance from seed sources and the increase in population pressure. Conservation initiatives in this zone of high biodiversity should focus on protected areas, taking into account short and long term benefits for the local population.     

Land-Use History and Forest Regeneration in the Cayey Mountains, Puerto Rico

Although deforestation continues to be a major threat to tropical biodiversity, abandonment of agricultural land in Puerto Rico provides an opportunity to study long-term patterns of secondary forest regeneration. Using aerial photographs from 1937, 1967, and 1995, we determined land-use history for 2443 ha in the Cayey Mountains. Pastures were the dominant land cover in 1937 and <20% of the area was classified as forest. Between 1937 and 1995, forest cover increased to 62% due to widespread abandonment of agriculture. To examine the effect of historic land use on current forest structure and species composition, we sampled secondary forests in 24 abandoned pastures, 9 abandoned coffee plantations and 4 old-growth forest sites. Sites were located on two soil types along an elevational gradient (125–710 m) and included a chronosequence from 4 to over 80 years old. After 25–30 years, basal area and species richness in secondary forest sites derived from abandoned pastures and coffee plantations were similar to old-growth forest sites. The species composition of secondary forests derived from abandoned pastures and coffee plantations remained distinct from old-growth forest. In addition to historic land use, age and elevation were important environmental variables explaining variation in secondary forest species composition. Non-indigenous species were common in recently abandoned pastures and coffee plantations, but their importance declined in the older sites. This study demonstrates that secondary forests on private land can be an important component of the conservation of tropical tree biodiversity. Received 16 June 1999; Accepted 8 October 1999.     

Forest light and its influence on habitat selection

Light filtered through the forest canopy is the most variable physical factor in tropical forests, both in space and time. Vegetation geometry, sun angle, and weather generate five light environments, which greatly differ in intensity and spectrum. Forest light spectra can directly affect photosynthesis, plant morphogenesis, visual communication, and the effectiveness of plant-animal interactions. For animals, the apparent simplicity of five light environments is complicated by different types of contrast with the optical background which greatly modify the conspicuousness of visual signals. The purpose of this paper is to describe peculiarities of light in tropical forest, and to review the effects of light intensity and especially quality on plants and animals. Ecophysiological adaptations of plants to cope with contrasting light environments operate at daily, seasonal and life time-scales. Ambient light quality acts as a signal for both animals and plants, and consequences on plant growth, colour display, and signal design are examined. An analysis of the range of spectral parameters along a deforestation gradient is presented, testing if sites with more variation in light could support more species which are light-environment specialists. It is suggested that light quality measurement may be used to estimate the structural impact of forest exploitation, and that gives us the information necessary for a functional explanation of anthropogenic effects on tropical forest diversity.     

Movement Behavior of Native and Invasive Small Mammals Shows Logging May Facilitate Invasion in a Tropical Rain Forest

Invasive species pose one of the greatest threats to biodiversity. This study investigates the extent to which human disturbance to natural ecosystems facilitates the spread of non‐native species, focusing on a small mammal community in selectively logged rain forest, Sabah, Borneo. The microhabitat preferences of the invasive Rattus rattus and three native species of small mammal were examined in three‐dimensional space by combining the spool‐and‐line technique with a novel method for quantifying fine‐scale habitat selection. These methods allowed the detection of significant differences for each species between the microhabitats used compared with alternative, available microhabitats that were avoided. Rattus rattus showed the greatest preference for heavily disturbed habitats, and in contrast to two native small mammals of the genus Maxomys, R. rattus showed high levels of arboreal behavior, frequently leaving the forest floor and traveling through the understory and midstory forest strata. This behavior may enable R. rattus to effectively utilize the complex three‐dimensional space of the lower strata in degraded forests, which is characterized by dense vegetation. The behavioral flexibility of R. rattus to operate in both terrestrial and arboreal space may facilitate its invasion into degraded forests. Human activities that generate heavily disturbed habitats preferred by R. rattus may promote the establishment of this invasive species in tropical forests in Borneo, and possibly elsewhere. We present this as an example of a synergistic effect, whereby forest disturbance directly threatens biodiversity and indirectly increases the threat posed by invasive species, creating habitat conditions that facilitate the establishment of non‐native fauna.     

A global overview of the conservation status of tropical dry forests

Aim To analyse the conservation status of tropical dry forests at the global scale, by combining a newly developed global distribution map with spatial data describing different threats, and to identify the relative exposure of different forest areas to such threats. Location Global assessment. Methods We present a new global distribution map of tropical dry forest derived from the recently developed MODIS Vegetation Continuous Fields (VCF) product, which depicts percentage tree cover at a resolution of 500 m, combined with previously defined maps of biomes. This distribution map was overlaid with spatial data to estimate the exposure of tropical dry forests to a number of different threats: climate change, habitat fragmentation, fire, human population density and conversion to cropland. The extent of tropical dry forest currently protected was estimated by overlaying the forest map with a global data set of the distribution of protected areas. Results It is estimated that 1,048,700 km² of tropical dry forest remains, distributed throughout the three tropical regions. More than half of the forest area (54.2%) is located within South America, the remaining area being almost equally divided between North and Central America, Africa and Eurasia, with a relatively small proportion (3.8%) occurring within Australasia and Southeast Asia. Overall, c. 97% of the remaining area of tropical dry forest is at risk from one or more of the threats considered, with highest percentages recorded for Eurasia. The relative exposure to different threats differed between regions: while climate change is relatively significant in the Americas, habitat fragmentation and fire affect a higher proportion of African forests, whereas agricultural conversion and human population density are most influential in Eurasia. Evidence suggests that c. 300,000 km² of tropical dry forest now coincide with some form of protected area, with 71.8% of this total being located within South America. Main conclusions Virtually all of the tropical dry forests that remain are currently exposed to a variety of different threats, largely resulting from human activity. Taking their high biodiversity value into consideration, this indicates that tropical dry forests should be accorded high conservation priority. The results presented here could be used to identify which forest areas should be accorded highest priority for conservation action. In particular, the expansion of the global protected area network, particularly in Mesoamerica, should be given urgent consideration.     

Multiple stages of tree seedling recruitment are altered in tropical forests degraded by selective logging

Tropical forest degradation is a global environmental issue. In degraded forests, seedling recruitment of canopy trees is vital for forest regeneration and recovery. We investigated how selective logging, a pervasive driver of tropical forest degradation, impacts canopy tree seedling recruitment, focusing on an endemic dipterocarp Dryobalanops lanceolata in Sabah, Borneo. During a mast‐fruiting event in intensively logged and nearby unlogged forest, we examined four stages of the seedling recruitment process: seed production, seed predation, and negative density‐dependent germination and seedling survival. Our results suggest that each stage of the seedling recruitment process is altered in logged forest. The seed crop of D. lanceolata trees in logged forest was one‐third smaller than that produced by trees in unlogged forest. The functional role of vertebrates in seed predation increased in logged forest while that of non‐vertebrates declined. Seeds in logged forest were less likely to germinate than those in unlogged forest. Germination increased with local‐scale conspecific seed density in unlogged forest, but seedling survival tended to decline. However, both germination and seedling survival increased with local‐scale conspecific seed density in logged forest. Notably, seed crop size, germination, and seedling survival tended to increase for larger trees in both unlogged and logged forests, suggesting that sustainable timber extraction and silvicultural practices designed to minimize damage to the residual stand are important to prevent seedling recruitment failure. Overall, these impacts sustained by several aspects of seedling recruitment in a mast‐fruiting year suggest that intensive selective logging may affect long‐term population dynamics of D. lanceolata. It is necessary to establish if other dipterocarp species, many of which are threatened by the timber trade, are similarly affected in tropical forests degraded by intensive selective logging.     

Recovery of indigenous butterfly community following control of invasive alien plants in a tropical island’s wet forests

Invasive alien species pose one of the highest threats to biodiversity, especially in isolated oceanic islands where high rates of both endemism and extinction risk also usually prevail. Few studies have investigated the impact of invasive alien plants on butterflies in insular ecosystems, despite butterflies representing a key indicator group for terrestrial arthropod diversity. Using the Pollard Technique, we quantified butterfly species richness and abundance in eight wet lowland forest areas invaded by alien plants, principally the strawberry guava (Psidium cattleianum Sabine) on the tropical volcanic island of Mauritius, and compared the results with paired adjacent forest plots that had been weeded of alien plants between 2 and 12 years previously. Butterfly assemblages in weed-infested and weeded forests were distinctly different with higher species richness and much higher butterfly abundance in the latter. At least some of these differences seemed attributable to weed removal effects on forest structure, but understanding the precise mechanisms involved will require further study. The results suggest that alien plant invasion may have contributed to the extinction of certain endemic taxa and can increase the likelihood of butterfly species extinction by reducing population sizes through reduced habitat quality. Such a shift in a forest’s butterfly assemblage is likely to have negative effects on both their indigenous predators and the plants they pollinate. It is argued that in order to maintain butterfly and other arthropod diversity and function in these forests, alien plant control must be maintained and extended beyond the current 1% of surviving forest remnants.     

Tropical forest recovery: legacies of human impact and natural disturbances

Land-use history interacts with natural forces to influence the severity of disturbance events and the rate and nature of recovery processes in tropical forests. Although we are far from an integrated view of forest recovery processes, some generalizations can be made. Recovery of forest structure and composition is relatively rapid following disturbances that primarily impact forest canopies, such as hurricanes. Recovery is considerably slower following disturbances that heavily impact soils as well as aboveground vegetation, such as bulldozing, heavy or long-term grazing, and severe fires, often with long-lasting effects on species composition. The landscape matrix plays a critical role in local recovery processes. Proximity of disturbed areas to remnant forest patches promotes more rapid recovery, which depends heavily on seed dispersal. Recovery of aboveground biomass is constrained by soil fertility and texture across regions as well as across soil types within a region. Restoration of soil fertility may be a prerequisite for forest recovery on sites with severely degraded soils. Despite evidence of rapid forest recovery following large-scale deforestation, many degraded areas of today's tropics will require human assistance to recover forest structure, species composition, and species interactions typical of mature tropical forests.     

A large‐scale field assessment of carbon stocks in human‐modified tropical forests

Tropical rainforests store enormous amounts of carbon, the protection of which represents a vital component of efforts to mitigate global climate change. Currently, tropical forest conservation, science, policies, and climate mitigation actions focus predominantly on reducing carbon emissions from deforestation alone. However, every year vast areas of the humid tropics are disturbed by selective logging, understory fires, and habitat fragmentation. There is an urgent need to understand the effect of such disturbances on carbon stocks, and how stocks in disturbed forests compare to those found in undisturbed primary forests as well as in regenerating secondary forests. Here, we present the results of the largest field study to date on the impacts of human disturbances on above and belowground carbon stocks in tropical forests. Live vegetation, the largest carbon pool, was extremely sensitive to disturbance: forests that experienced both selective logging and understory fires stored, on average, 40% less aboveground carbon than undisturbed forests and were structurally similar to secondary forests. Edge effects also played an important role in explaining variability in aboveground carbon stocks of disturbed forests. Results indicate a potential rapid recovery of the dead wood and litter carbon pools, while soil stocks (0–30 cm) appeared to be resistant to the effects of logging and fire. Carbon loss and subsequent emissions due to human disturbances remain largely unaccounted for in greenhouse gas inventories, but by comparing our estimates of depleted carbon stocks in disturbed forests with Brazilian government assessments of the total forest area annually disturbed in the Amazon, we show that these emissions could represent up to 40% of the carbon loss from deforestation in the region. We conclude that conservation programs aiming to ensure the long‐term permanence of forest carbon stocks, such as REDD+, will remain limited in their success unless they effectively avoid degradation as well as deforestation.