Excess mortality associated with alcohol consumption.

To estimate the excess mortality due to alcohol in England and Wales death rates specific to alcohol consumption that had been derived from five longitudinal studies were applied to the current population divided into categories of alcohol consumption. Because of the J shaped relation between alcohol consumption and death the excess mortality used as a baseline was an alcohol consumption of 1-10 units/week and an adjustment was made for the slight excess mortality of abstainers. The number of excess deaths was obtained by subtracting the number of deaths expected if all the population had the consumption of the lowest risk group; correction for the total observed mortality in the population was made. This resulted in an estimate of 28,000 deaths each year in England and Wales as the excess mortality among people aged 15-74 associated with alcohol consumption.     

Mortality among patients with ankylosing spondylitis after a single treatment course with x rays.

Mortality was studied in 14 111 patients with ankylosing spondylitis given a single course of x-ray treatment during 1935-54. Mortality from all causes combined was 66% greater than that of members of the general population of England and Wales. There were substantial excesses of deaths from non-neoplastic conditions, but these appeared to be associated with the disease itself rather than its treatment. A nearly fivefold excess of deaths from leukaemia and a 62% excess of deaths from cancers of sites that would have been in the radiation fields ("heavily irradiated sites") were likely to have been a direct consequence of the radiation treatment itself. The excess death rate from leukaemia was greatest three to five years after treatment and was close to zero after 18 years. In contrast, the excess of cancers of heavily irradiated sites did not become apparent until nine or more years after irradiation and continued for a further 11 years. More than 20 years after irradiation the excess risk declined, but the fall was not statistically significant. The number of cancers of sites not considered to be in the radiation beams was 20% greater than expected. This excess, although not statistically significant, may also have been due to radiation scattered from beams directed at other parts of the body. The risk of a radiation-induced leukaemia or other cancer was related to the age of the patient at the time of treatment. Those irradiated when aged 55 years or more had an excess death rate from leukaemia more than 15 times that of those treated under 25 years of age, and a similar difference was apparent for cancers of heavily irradiated sites. The radiation dose to the bone marrow was estimated for the patients who died with leukaemia and for a 1 in 15 sample of the total study population. The excess risk of leukaemia varied erratically with radiation dose owing, perhaps, in part to the increase in the proportion of the cells in the bone marrow that are sterilised with increasing doses. A mathematical model using a linear leukaemia induction rate and exponential cell sterilisation fitted the data reasonably well, and the results suggested that for low radiation doses about two deaths from leukaemia would be induced per million people per rad of x rays per year for up to 20 years after exposure. Because of the failure to find a clear dose-response relationship this estimate must be regarded with caution, but it is in reasonable agreement with that derived from studies of the atomic bomb survivors.     

Excess years of life lost to COVID-19 and other causes of death by sex,neighbourhood deprivation,and region in England and Wales during 2020: A registry-based study

BackgroundDeaths in the first year of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in England and Wales were unevenly distributed socioeconomically and geographically. However, the full scale of inequalities may have been underestimated to date, as most measures of excess mortality do not adequately account for varying age profiles of deaths between social groups. We measured years of life lost (YLL) attributable to the pandemic, directly or indirectly, comparing mortality across geographic and socioeconomic groups.Methods and findingsWe used national mortality registers in England and Wales, from 27 December 2014 until 25 December 2020, covering 3,265,937 deaths. YLLs (main outcome) were calculated using 2019 single year sex-specific life tables for England and Wales. Interrupted time-series analyses, with panel time-series models, were used to estimate expected YLL by sex, geographical region, and deprivation quintile between 7 March 2020 and 25 December 2020 by cause: direct deaths (COVID-19 and other respiratory diseases), cardiovascular disease and diabetes, cancer, and other indirect deaths (all other causes). Excess YLL during the pandemic period were calculated by subtracting observed from expected values. Additional analyses focused on excess deaths for region and deprivation strata, by age-group. Between 7 March 2020 and 25 December 2020, there were an estimated 763,550 (95% CI: 696,826 to 830,273) excess YLL in England and Wales, equivalent to a 15% (95% CI: 14 to 16) increase in YLL compared to the equivalent time period in 2019. There was a strong deprivation gradient in all-cause excess YLL, with rates per 100,000 population ranging from 916 (95% CI: 820 to 1,012) for the least deprived quintile to 1,645 (95% CI: 1,472 to 1,819) for the most deprived. The differences in excess YLL between deprivation quintiles were greatest in younger age groups; for all-cause deaths, a mean of 9.1 years per death (95% CI: 8.2 to 10.0) were lost in the least deprived quintile, compared to 10.8 (95% CI: 10.0 to 11.6) in the most deprived; for COVID-19 and other respiratory deaths, a mean of 8.9 years per death (95% CI: 8.7 to 9.1) were lost in the least deprived quintile, compared to 11.2 (95% CI: 11.0 to 11.5) in the most deprived. For all-cause mortality, estimated deaths in the most deprived compared to the most affluent areas were much higher in younger age groups, but similar for those aged 85 or over. There was marked variability in both all-cause and direct excess YLL by region, with the highest rates in the North West. Limitations include the quasi-experimental nature of the research design and the requirement for accurate and timely recording.ConclusionsIn this study, we observed strong socioeconomic and geographical health inequalities in YLL, during the first calendar year of the COVID-19 pandemic. These were in line with long-standing existing inequalities in England and Wales, with the most deprived areas reporting the largest numbers in potential YLL.

In a registry-based study, Evangelos Kontopantelis and colleagues examine the excess years of life lost to COVID-19 and other causes of death by sex, neighbourhood deprivation and region in England & Wales during 2020.     

Cancer mortality following radium treatment for uterine bleeding

Cancer mortality in relation to radiation dose was evaluated among 4153 women treated with intrauterine radium (226Ra) capsules for benign gynecologic bleeding disorders between 1925 and 1965. Average follow up was 26.5 years (maximum = 59.9 years). Overall, 2763 deaths were observed versus 2687 expected based on U.S. mortality rates [standardized mortality ratio (SMR) = 1.03]. Deaths due to cancer, however, were increased (SMR = 1.30), especially cancers of organs close to the radiation source. For organs receiving greater than 5 Gy, excess mortality of 100 to 110% was noted for cancers of the uterus and bladder 10 or more years following irradiation, while a deficit was seen for cancer of the cervix, one of the few malignancies not previously shown to be caused by ionizing radiation. Part of the excess of uterine cancer, however, may have been due to the underlying gynecologic disorders being treated. Among cancers of organs receiving average or local doses of 1 to 4 Gy, excesses of 30 to 100% were found for leukemia and cancers of the colon and genital organs other than uterus; no excess was seen for rectal or bone cancer. Among organs typically receiving 0.1 to 0.3 Gy, a deficit was recorded for cancers of the liver, gall bladder, and bile ducts combined, death due to stomach cancer occurred at close to the expected rate, a 30% excess was noted for kidney cancer (based on eight deaths), and there was a 60% excess of pancreatic cancer among 10-year survivors, but little evidence of dose-response. Estimates of the excess relative risk per Gray were 0.006 for uterus, 0.4 for other genital organs, 0.5 for colon, 0.2 for bladder, and 1.9 for leukemia. Contrary to findings for other populations treated by pelvic irradiation, a deficit of breast cancer was not observed (SMR = 1.0). Dose to the ovaries (median, 2.3 Gy) may have been insufficient to protect against breast cancer. For organs receiving greater than 1 Gy, cancer mortality remained elevated for more than 30 years, supporting the notion that radiation damage persists for many years after exposure.     

Mortality of employees of the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority, 1946-1979.

An analysis was conducted of 3373 deaths among 39 546 people employed by the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority between 1946 and 1979, the population having been followed up for an average of 16 years. Overall the death rates were below those prevailing in England and Wales but consistent with those expected in a normal workforce. At ages 15-74 years the standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) were 74 for deaths from all causes and 79 for deaths from all cancers. Mortality from only four causes was above the national average--namely, testicular cancer (SMR 153; 10 deaths), leukaemia (SMR 123; 35 deaths), thyroid cancer (SMR 122; three deaths), non-Hodgkin''s lymphoma (SMR 107; 20 deaths)--but in none was the increase significant at the 5% level. Half of the authority''s employees were recorded as having been monitored for exposure to radiation, their collective recorded exposure being 660 Sv (65 954 rem). Among these prostatic cancer was the only condition with a clearly increased mortality in relation to exposure. Of the 19 men who had a radiation record and died from prostatic cancer at ages 15-74 years, nine had been monitored for several different sources of exposure to radiation. The standardised mortality ratios were 889 (six deaths) in employees monitored for contamination by tritium, 254 (nine deaths) in those monitored for contamination by other radionuclides, and 385 (nine deaths) in those with dosimeter readings totalling more than 50 mSv (5 rem); but the same nine subjects tended to account for each of these significantly raised ratios. Because multiple exposures were common and other relevant information was not available the reason for the increased mortality from prostatic cancer in this population could not be determined and requires further investigation. Excess mortality rates of 2.2 and 12.5 deaths per million person years per 10 mSv (1 rem) were estimated for leukaemia and all cancers, respectively. The confidence limits around these estimates were wide, included zero, and made it unlikely that the International Commission on Radiological Protection''s cancer risk coefficients were underestimated by more than 15-fold. Thus despite this being the largest British workforce whose mortality has been reported in relation to low level ionising radiation exposure, even larger populations will need to be followed up over longer periods before narrower ranges of risk estimates can be derived.     

Solid cancer mortality associated with chronic external radiation exposure at the French atomic energy commission and nuclear fuel company

Studies of nuclear workers make it possible to directly quantify the risks associated with ionizing radiation exposure at low doses and low dose rates. Studies of the CEA (Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique) and AREVA Nuclear Cycle (AREVA NC) cohort, currently the most informative such group in France, describe the long-term risk to nuclear workers associated with external exposure. Our aim is to assess the risk of mortality from solid cancers among CEA and AREVA NC nuclear workers and its association with external radiation exposure. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated and internal Poisson regressions were conducted, controlling for the main confounding factors [sex, attained age, calendar period, company and socioeconomic status (SES)]. During the period 1968-2004, there were 2,035 solid cancers among the 36,769 CEA-AREVA NC workers. Cumulative external radiation exposure was assessed for the period 1950-2004, and the mean cumulative dose was 12.1 mSv. Mortality rates for all causes and all solid cancers were both significantly lower in this cohort than in the general population. A significant excess of deaths from pleural cancer, not associated with cumulative external dose, was observed, probably due to past asbestos exposure. We observed a significant excess of melanoma, also unassociated with dose. Although cumulative external dose was not associated with mortality from all solid cancers, the central estimated excess relative risk (ERR) per Sv of 0.46 for solid cancer mortality was higher than the 0.26 calculated for male Hiroshima and Nagasaki A-bomb survivors 50 years or older and exposed at the age of 30 years or older. The modification of our results after stratification for SES demonstrates the importance of this characteristic in occupational studies, because it makes it possible to take class-based lifestyle differences into account, at least partly. These results show the great potential of a further joint international study of nuclear workers, which should improve knowledge about the risks associated with chronic low doses and provide useful risk estimates for radiation protection.     

Mortality of employees of the Atomic Weapons Establishment, 1951-82.

A total of 22,552 workers employed by the Atomic Weapons Establishment between 1951 and 1982 were followed up for an average of 18.6 years. Of the 3115 who died, 865 (28%) died of cancer. Mortality was 23% lower than the national average for all causes of death and 18% lower for cancer. These low rates were consistent with the findings in other workforces in the nuclear industry and reflect, at least in part, the selection of healthy people to work in the industry and the disproportionate recruitment of people from the higher social classes. At some time during their employment 9389 (42%) of the workers were monitored for exposure to radiation, the average cumulative whole body exposure to external radiation being 7.8 mSv. Their mortality was generally similar to that of other employees, even when exposures were lagged by 10 years. The rate ratio after a 10 year lag in workers with a radiation record compared with other workers was 1.01 (95% confidence interval 0.92 to 1.10) for all causes of death and 1.06 (0.89 to 1.27) for all malignant neoplasms. The only significant differences were for prostatic cancer (rate ratio 2.23; 95% confidence interval 1.13 to 4.40) and for cancers of ill defined and secondary sites (rate ratio 2.37; 1.23 to 4.56). Cancers of lymphatic and haemopoietic tissues were notable for their low occurrence in the study population, with only four deaths from leukaemia and two from multiple myeloma in workers with a radiation record, 9.16 and 3.55 deaths respectively being expected on the basis of national rates. Among workers who had a radiation record 3742 (40%) were also monitored for possible internal exposure to plutonium, 3044 (32%) to uranium, 1562 (17%) to tritium, 638 (7%) to polonium, and 281 (3%) to actinium. In these workers mortality from malignant neoplasms as a whole was not increased, but after a 10 year lag death rates from prostatic and renal cancers were generally more than twice the national average, these excesses arising in a small group of workers monitored for exposure to multiple radionuclides. Though mortality from lung cancer in workers monitored for exposure to plutonium was below the national average, it was some two thirds higher than in other radiation workers, the excess being of borderline statistical significance. Mortality from malignant neoplasms as a whole showed a weak and non-significant increasing trend with increasing level of cumulative whole body exposure to external radiation. When the exposures were lagged by 10 years the trend became stronger and significant, the estimated increase in relative risk per 10 mSv being 7.6% (95% confidence interval 0.4% to 15.3%). This trend was confined almost entirely to workers who were also monitored for exposure to radionuclides (p<0.001), the main contributions coming from lung cancer and prostatic cancer. Exposures of the lung and prostate from internal sources of radiation were not quantified, except for the contribution from tritium. It was therefore not possible to assess the extent to which the associations were due to internally deposited radionuclides rather than external exposure. The finding for prostatic cancer taken in conjunction with the results of other studies suggest a specific occupational hazard in a small group of workers in the nuclear industry who had comparatively high exposures to external radiation and who were also monitored for internal exposure to multiple radionuclides. Research is needed to discover whether any of the radionuclides and other substances concerned are concentrated in the prostate. The occurrence of lung cancer in this workforce requires further investigation taking into account smoking habits and tissue doses from inhaled radionuclides.     

Patterns of mortality in second generation Irish living in England and Wales: longitudinal study.

OBJECTIVE--To examine the mortality of second generation Irish living in England and Wales. DESIGN--Longitudinal study of 1% of the population of England and Wales (longitudinal study by the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys (now the Office for National Statistics)) followed up from 1971 to 1989. SUBJECTS--3075 men and 3233 women aged 15 and over in 1971. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Age and sex specific standardised mortality ratios for all causes, cancers, coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular diseases, respiratory diseases, and injuries and poisonings. Deaths were also analysed by socioeconomic indicators. RESULTS--786 deaths were traced to men and 762 to women. At working ages (men, aged 15-64; women, 15-59) the mortality of men (standardised mortality ratio 126) and women (129) was significantly higher than that of all men and all women. At ages 15-44, relative disadvantages were even greater both for men (145) and for women (164). Mortality was raised for most major causes of death. Significant excess mortality from cancers was seen for men of working age (132) and for women aged 60 and over (122). At working ages mortality of the second generation Irish in every social class and in the categories of car access and housing tenure was higher than that of all men and all women in the corresponding categories. Adjusting for these socioeconomic indicators did not explain the excess mortality. CONCLUSION--Mortality of second generation Irish men and women was higher than that of all men and all women and for most major causes of death. While socioeconomic factors remain important, cultural and lifestyle factors are likely to contribute to this adverse mortality.     

Second analysis of mortality of nuclear industry workers in Japan, 1986-1997

IA cohort study of nuclear industry workers was initiated in 1990 to determine the possible health effects of low-level radiation. A total of 5,527 deaths were ascertained among 176,000 male workers who had been retrospectively and/or prospectively followed for an average of 7.9 years during the observation period 1986-1997. Statistical analyses were made mainly on the prospective follow-up outcome of 120,000 workers followed for an average of 4.5 years. The standardized mortality ratio (and its 95% confidence interval) was 0.94 (0.90, 0.97) for 2,934 cases of all causes combined and 0.86 (0.82, 0.91) for 1,305 cases of non-malignant diseases combined, which suggested a healthy worker effect. For 1,191 cases of all cancers combined, it was 0.98 (0.93, 1.04), indicating no difference in mortality from that of the general population. In tests for trend of death rate with increasing radiation dose, no significant correlation was found for all cancers combined. For site-specific cancers, most cancers including leukemia showed no positive correlation with dose, except for cancers of the esophagus, stomach and rectum and multiple myeloma. External causes showed a significant correlation with dose. A separate questionnaire study indicated that these positive findings could be ascribed in part to lifestyle characteristics of the workers. For leukemia only, we attempted to estimate the excess relative risk per unit dose of radiation, which, with reservations because of its wide confidence interval, was within the range of variation of the risks reported in other radiation epidemiological studies. This population must be studied for a longer time and with a consideration of the possible effects of confounding factors.     

Updated mortality analysis of radiation workers at Rocketdyne (Atomics International), 1948-2008

Updated analyses of mortality data are presented on 46,970 workers employed 1948-1999 at Rocketdyne (Atomics International). Overall, 5,801 workers were involved in radiation activities, including 2,232 who were monitored for intakes of radionuclides, and 41,169 workers were engaged in rocket testing or other non-radiation activities. The worker population is unique in that lifetime occupational doses from all places of employment were sought, updated and incorporated into the analyses. Further, radiation doses from intakes of 14 different radionuclides were calculated for 16 organs or tissues using biokinetic models of the International Commission on Radiation Protection (ICRP). Because only negligible exposures were received by the 247 workers monitored for radiation activities after 1999, the mean dose from external radiation remained essentially the same at 13.5 mSv (maximum 1 Sv) as reported previously, as did the mean lung dose from external and internal radiation combined at 19.0 mSv (maximum 3.6 Sv). An additional 9 years of follow-up, from December 31,1999 through 2008, increased the person-years of observation for the radiation workers by 21.7% to 196,674 (mean 33.9 years) and the number of cancer deaths by 50% to 684. Analyses included external comparisons with the general population and the computation of standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and internal comparisons using proportional hazards models and the computation of relative risks (RRs). A low SMR for all causes of death (SMR 0.82; 95% CI 0.78-0.85) continued to indicate that the Rocketdyne radiation workers were healthier than the general population and were less likely to die. The SMRs for all cancers taken together (SMR 0.88; 95% CI 0.81-0.95), lung cancer (SMR 0.87; 95% CI 0.76-1.00) and leukemia other than chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) (SMR 1.04; 95% 0.67-1.53) were not significantly elevated. Cox regression analyses revealed no significant dose-response trends for any cancer. For all cancers excluding leukemia, the RR at 100 mSv was estimated as 0.98 (95% CI 0.82-1.17), and for all leukemia other than CLL it was 1.06 (95% CI 0.50-2.23). Uranium was the primary radionuclide contributing to internal exposures, but no significant increases in lung and kidney disease were seen. The extended follow-up reinforces the findings in the previous study in failing to observe a detectable increase in cancer deaths associated with radiation, but strong conclusions still cannot be drawn because of small numbers and relatively low career doses. Larger combined studies of early workers in the United States using similar methodologies are warranted to refine and clarify radiation risks after protracted exposures.     

Late mortality after vagotomy and drainage for duodenal ulcer.

Seven hundred and thirty five patients who underwent elective vagotomy and drainage procedures in one hospital during 1957-67 were followed up until 1 September 1982. At this time 281 were dead compared with an expected 184. This gives a ratio of observed to expected deaths of 1.53 (p less than 0.0001). The most important cause of increased mortality was lung cancer, which accounted for 33 of the excess deaths (observed to expected ratio 3.53). Gastric cancer yielded an observed to expected ratio of 3.3. Other causes of death that were significantly more common than expected were cerebrovascular accident, bronchopneumonia, and colorectal cancer. It is concluded that although gastric cancer occurs more commonly after vagotomy and drainage than in the general population, it is not as important a cause of death as diseases related to smoking.     

Cancer mortality risk among workers at the Mayak nuclear complex

At present, direct data on risk from protracted or fractionated radiation exposure at low dose rates have been limited largely to studies of populations exposed to low cumulative doses with resulting low statistical power. We evaluated the cancer risks associated with protracted exposure to external whole-body gamma radiation at high cumulative doses (the average dose is 0.8 Gy and the highest doses exceed 10 Gy) in Russian nuclear workers. Cancer deaths in a cohort of about 21,500 nuclear workers who began working at the Mayak complex between 1948 and 1972 were ascertained from death certificates and autopsy reports with follow-up through December 1997. Excess relative risk models were used to estimate solid cancer and leukemia risks associated with external gamma-radiation dose with adjustment for effects of plutonium exposures. Both solid cancer and leukemia death rates increased significantly with increasing gamma-ray dose (P < 0.001). Under a linear dose-response model, the excess relative risk for lung, liver and skeletal cancers as a group (668 deaths) adjusted for plutonium exposure is 0.30 per gray (P < 0.001) and 0.08 per gray (P < 0.001) for all other solid cancers (1062 deaths). The solid cancer dose-response functions appear to be nonlinear, with the excess risk estimates at doses of less than 3 Gy being about twice those predicted by the linear model. Plutonium exposure was associated with increased risks both for lung, liver and skeletal cancers (the sites of primary plutonium deposition) and for other solid cancers as a group. A significant dose response, with no indication of plutonium exposure effects, was found for leukemia. Excess risks for leukemia exhibited a significant dependence on the time since the dose was received. For doses received within 3 to 5 years of death the excess relative risk per gray was estimated to be about 7 (P < 0.001), but this risk was only 0.45 (P = 0.02) for doses received 5 to 45 years prior to death. External gamma-ray exposures significantly increased risks of both solid cancers and leukemia in this large cohort of men and women with occupational radiation exposures. Risks at doses of less than 1 Gy may be slightly lower than those seen for doses arising from acute exposures in the atomic bomb survivors. As dose estimates for the Mayak workers are improved, it should be possible to obtain more precise estimates of solid cancer and leukemia risks from protracted external radiation exposure in this cohort.     

Risk of lung cancer and leukemia from exposure to ionizing radiation and potential confounders among workers at the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard

Significantly elevated lung cancer deaths and statistically significantly positive linear trends between leukemia mortality and radiation exposure were reported in a previous analysis of Portsmouth Naval Shipyard workers. The purpose of this study was to conduct a modeling-based analysis that incorporates previously unanalyzed confounders in exploring the exposure-response relationship between cumulative external ionizing radiation exposure and mortality from these cancers among radiation-monitored workers in this cohort. The main analyses were carried out with Poisson regression fitted with maximum likelihood in linear excess relative risk models. Sensitivity analyses varying model components and using other regression models were conducted. The positive association between lung cancer risk and ionizing radiation observed previously was no longer present after adjusting for socioeconomic status (smoking surrogate) and welding fume and asbestos exposures. Excesses of leukemia were found to be positively, though not significantly, associated with external ionizing radiation, with or without including potential confounders. The estimated excess relative risk was 10.88% (95% CI -0.90%, 38.77%) per 10 mSv of radiation exposure, which was within the ranges of risk estimates in previous epidemiological studies (-4.1 to 19.0%). These results are limited by many factors and are subject to uncertainties of the exposure and confounder estimates.     

Cancer incidence among nuclear workers in Russia based on data from the Institute of Physics and Power Engineering: a preliminary analysis

One group that has the potential to be exposed to radiation is workers in the nuclear industry. Results of a systematic medical follow-up and dosimetric monitoring of these workers can form the basis for a study of the relationship between cancer incidence and radiation dose. As part of such efforts in Russia, a major institution of the nuclear industry with an established medical care unit, archiving capabilities, and dosimetry department was selected: the Institute of Physics and Power Engineering (IPPE) in Obninsk. In the study, a comparative analysis of cancer incidence rates for the IPPE workers and for the general population of Russia in 1991-1997 was carried out. The subjects were the IPPE workers hired before 1981. This restriction was imposed to reduce the uncertainty associated with the possible latent period in the development of solid cancers. Thus the possibility of including persons who already had the disease at the time when they were hired was minimized. The analysis is based on information about 158 cancer cases, including 24 cancers in persons under individual dosimetric monitoring. A statistically significant excess in cancer incidence was found among the IPPE workers compared with a comparison population (the general population of Russia) for some types of cancers. The SIR values for all cancers (ICD-9: 140-208) is 0.93 (95% CI 0.76, 1.12) for males and 1.42 (95% CI 1.06, 1.87) for females. A statistically significant excess for all cancers was also observed for residents of Obninsk compared to the control comparison population. The corresponding SIR value was 1.20 (95% CI 1.12, 1.28) for males and 1.58 (95% CI 1.49, 1.69) for females. An important reason for the observed excess in cancer incidence compared to the control population may be the higher level of health care in the so-called nuclear cities of Russia which may have resulted in increased diagnosis and registration of cancers. A statistically significant dependence of the cancer incidence on the dose of ionizing radiation was not established. The excess relative risk per gray for all types of cancer was 0.91 (95% CI -2.75, 4.61) for males and 0.40 (95% CI -6.94, 7.83) for females. These estimates should be considered to be preliminary, as the number of cases considered in the analysis of the dose response is small (17 males and 7 females).     

Radiation Effects on Mortality from Solid Cancers Other than Lung,Liver, and Bone Cancer in the Mayak Worker Cohort: 1948–2008

Radiation effects on mortality from solid cancers other than lung, liver, and bone cancer in the Mayak worker cohort: 1948–2008. The cohort of Mayak Production Association (PA) workers in Russia offers a unique opportunity to study the effects of prolonged low dose rate external gamma exposures and exposure to plutonium in a working age population. We examined radiation effects on the risk of mortality from solid cancers excluding sites of primary plutonium deposition (lung, liver, and bone surface) among 25,757 workers who were first employed in 1948–1982. During the period 1948–2008, there were 1,825 deaths from cancers other than lung, liver and bone. Using colon dose as a representative external dose, a linear dose response model described the data well. The excess relative risk per Gray for external gamma exposure was 0.16 (95% CI: 0.07 – 0.26) when unadjusted for plutonium exposure and 0.12 (95% CI 0.03 – 0.21) when adjusted for plutonium dose and monitoring status. There was no significant effect modification by sex or attained age. Plutonium exposure was not significantly associated with the group of cancers analyzed after adjusting for monitoring status. Site-specific risks were uncertainly estimated but positive for 13 of the 15 sites evaluated with a statistically significant estimate only for esophageal cancer. Comparison with estimates based on the acute exposures in atomic bomb survivors suggests that the excess relative risk per Gray for prolonged external exposure in Mayak workers may be lower than that for acute exposure but, given the uncertainties, the possibility of equal effects cannot be dismissed.     

Distribution of childhood leukaemias and non-Hodgkin's lymphomas near nuclear installations in England and Wales.

OBJECTIVE--To examine the relation between the risk of childhood leukaemia and non-Hodgkin''s lymphoma and proximity of residence to nuclear installations in England and Wales. DESIGN--Observed and expected numbers of cases were calculated and analysed by standard methods based on ratios of observed to expected counts and by a new statistical test, the linear risk score test, based on ranks and designed to be sensitive to excess incidence in close proximity to a putative source of risk. SETTING--Electoral wards within 25 km of 23 nuclear installations and six control sites that had been investigated for suitability for generating stations but never used. SUBJECTS--Children below age 15 in England and Wales, 1966-87. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Registration of any leukaemia or non-Hodgkin''s lymphoma. RESULTS--In none of the 25 km circles around the installations was the incidence ratio significantly greater than 1.0. The only significant results for the linear risk score test were for Sellafield (P = 0.00002) and Burghfield (P = 0.031). The circles for Aldermaston and Burghfield overlap; the incidence ratio was 1.10 in each. One of the control sites gave a significant linear risk score test result (P = 0.020). All the tests carried out were one sided with P values estimated by simulation. CONCLUSION--There is no evidence of a general increase of childhood leukaemia or non-Hodgkin''s lymphoma around nuclear installations. Apart from Sellafield, the evidence for distance related risk is very weak.     

The 15-Country Collaborative Study of Cancer Risk among Radiation Workers in the Nuclear Industry: estimates of radiation-related cancer risks

A 15-Country collaborative cohort study was conducted to provide direct estimates of cancer risk following protracted low doses of ionizing radiation. Analyses included 407,391 nuclear industry workers monitored individually for external radiation and 5.2 million person-years of follow-up. A significant association was seen between radiation dose and all-cause mortality [excess relative risk (ERR) 0.42 per Sv, 90% CI 0.07, 0.79; 18,993 deaths]. This was mainly attributable to a dose-related increase in all cancer mortality (ERR/Sv 0.97, 90% CI 0.28, 1.77; 5233 deaths). Among 31 specific types of malignancies studied, a significant association was found for lung cancer (ERR/Sv 1.86, 90% CI 0.49, 3.63; 1457 deaths) and a borderline significant (P = 0.06) association for multiple myeloma (ERR/Sv 6.15, 90% CI <0, 20.6; 83 deaths) and ill-defined and secondary cancers (ERR/Sv 1.96, 90% CI -0.26, 5.90; 328 deaths). Stratification on duration of employment had a large effect on the ERR/Sv, reflecting a strong healthy worker survivor effect in these cohorts. This is the largest analytical epidemiological study of the effects of low-dose protracted exposures to ionizing radiation to date. Further studies will be important to better assess the role of tobacco and other occupational exposures in our risk estimates.     

Mortality risk in a historical cohort of nuclear power plant workers in Germany: results from a second follow-up

Possible health effects of low and protracted doses of ionizing radiation are relevant for persons who are exposed to an occupational context like nuclear industry workers. A historical cohort study was therefore conducted to examine mortality risks following occupational radiation exposure among 4,844 German nuclear power plant workers. This cohort included workers from ten nuclear power plants with an observational period from 1991 until 1997. The results of an enlarged cohort with 8,972 workers from all 17 nuclear power plants in West Germany are now available. During the extended follow-up period from 1991 to 2008, a total of 310 deaths among men were observed. The standardized mortality ratio (SMR) from all causes of deaths was estimated at 0.50 [95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.45–0.56]. A total of 126 deaths due to cancer occurred (SMR = 0.65; 95 % CI 0.51–0.82) and seven deaths due to leukemia (SMR = 1.23; 95 % CI 0.42–2.84). Overall, a reduced mortality compared to the general population of West Germany was observed indicating a healthy worker effect. In the dose–response analysis, no statistically significant risk due to ionizing radiation was seen. The hazard ratio (HR/mSv) for leukemia excluding chronic lymphocytic leukemia was estimated at 1.004 (95 % CI 0.997–1.011). In conclusion, the cohort is small and made up of young workers, most of whom were still employed at the end of the observational period in 2008. Results of the external analysis are difficult to interpret as influenced by a healthy worker effect. In the internal analysis, no excess of risk due to radiation was detected.     

Radiation exposure and cancer incidence in a cohort of nuclear power industry workers in the Republic of Korea, 1992–2005

This study examines for the first time cancer incidence between radiation and non-radiation workers in nuclear power facilities in the Republic of Korea. Radiation workers were defined as persons who were issued with a dosimeter at nuclear power facilities, until 2005. All analyses were conducted on male workers only (in total 16,236 individuals) because of the sparseness of females. Statistical analyses were carried out using the standardized incidence ratio (SIR), to compare the cancer risks of radiation and non-radiation workers with those of the general population, and the χ² trend test was used to investigate any increase in cancer rates with dose. Poisson regression was also used to estimate the rate ratio (RR) and the excess relative risk (ERR) after considering the confounding effect due to smoking. During 1992–2005, 99 cancer cases in 63,503 person-years were observed among 8,429 radiation workers, while 104 cancer cases were observed in 48,301 person-years among 7,807 non-radiation workers. When compared with the site- and age-specific cancer rates for the male population of Korea, the SIR for all cancers combined was 1.07 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.87–1.30] for radiation workers, and 0.88 (95% CI 0.72–1.06) for non-radiation workers, respectively. The RR for radiation workers compared with non-radiation workers was 1.18 (95% CI 0.89–1.58) for all cancers combined. The SIRs for thyroid cancer were noticeably high for both radiation and non-radiation workers, possibly due to the screening effect, but analysis of the RR showed that there was no statistically significant difference in thyroid cancer incidence rates between the two groups. For lung cancer, radiation workers showed a higher incidence rate as compared to non-radiation workers, with the RR being 3.48 (95% CI 1.19–11.48). A χ² trend test showed that there was no evidence for an increase in cancer rate with increasing cumulative dose for all cancers combined (p = 0.5108). The ERR per Sievert was estimated to be 1.69 (95% CI −2.07 to 8.21) for all cancers combined assuming a 10 years lag time. Consequently, a significant excess of cancer incidence among radiation workers in the nuclear power industry in Korea was not observed. Further follow-up and an expansion of the cohort are needed to overcome the lack of statistical power in the study.     

Cancer mortality following in utero exposure among offspring of female mayak worker cohort members

Little is known about long-term cancer risks following in utero radiation exposure. We evaluated the association between in utero radiation exposure and risk of solid cancer and leukemia mortality among 8,000 offspring, born from 1948-1988, of female workers at the Mayak Nuclear Facility in Ozyorsk, Russia. Mother's cumulative gamma radiation uterine dose during pregnancy served as a surrogate for fetal dose. We used Poisson regression methods to estimate relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of solid cancer and leukemia mortality associated with in utero radiation exposure and to quantify excess relative risks (ERRs) as a function of dose. Using currently available dosimetry information, 3,226 (40%) offspring were exposed in utero (mean dose = 54.5 mGy). Based on 75 deaths from solid cancers (28 exposed) and 12 (6 exposed) deaths from leukemia, in utero exposure status was not significantly associated with solid cancer: RR = 0.94, 95% CI 0.58 to 1.49; ERR/Gy = -0.1 (95% CI < -0.1 to 4.1), or leukemia mortality; RR = 1.65, 95% CI 0.52 to 5.27; ERR/Gy = -0.8 (95% CI < -0.8 to 46.9). These initial results provide no evidence that low-dose gamma in utero radiation exposure increases solid cancer or leukemia mortality risk, but the data are not inconsistent with such an increase. As the offspring cohort is relatively young, subsequent analyses based on larger case numbers are expected to provide more precise estimates of adult cancer mortality risk following in utero exposure to ionizing radiation.