A comparison of approaches for modelling the occurrence of marine animals

Approaches for modelling the distribution of animals in relation to their environment can be divided into two basic types, those which use records of absence as well as records of presence and those which use only presence records. For terrestrial species, presence–absence approaches have been found to produce models with greater predictive ability than presence-only approaches. This study compared the predictive ability of both approaches for a marine animal, the harbour porpoise (Phoceoena phocoena). Using data on the occurrence of harbour porpoises in the Sea of Hebrides, Scotland, the predictive abilities of one presence–absence approach (generalised linear modelling—GLM) and three presence-only approaches (Principal component analysis—PCA, ecological niche factor analysis—ENFA and genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction—GARP) were compared. When the predictive ability of the models was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plots, the presence–absence approach (GLM) was found to have the greatest predictive ability. However, all approaches were found to produce models that predicted occurrence significantly better than a random model and the GLM model did not perform significantly better than ENFA and GARP. The PCA had a significantly lower predictive ability than GLM but not the other approaches. In addition, all models predicted a similar spatial distribution. Therefore, while models constructed using presence–absence approaches are likely to provide the best understanding of species distribution within a surveyed area, presence-only models can perform almost as well. However, careful consideration of the potential limitations and biases in the data, especially with regards to representativeness, is needed if the results of presence-only models are to be used for conservation and/or management purposes. Guest editor: V. D. Valavanis Essential Habitat Mapping in the Mediterranean     

Multilevel landscape utilization of the Siberian flying squirrel: Scale effects on species habitat use

Animals use and select habitat at multiple hierarchical levels and at different spatial scales within each level. Still, there is little knowledge on the scale effects at different spatial levels of species occupancy patterns. The objective of this study was to examine nonlinear effects and optimal‐scale landscape characteristics that affect occupancy of the Siberian flying squirrel, Pteromys volans, in South‐ and Mid‐Finland. We used presence–absence data (n = 10,032 plots of 9 ha) and novel approach to separate the effects on site‐, landscape‐, and regional‐level occupancy patterns. Our main results were: landscape variables predicted the placement of population patches at least twice as well as they predicted the occupancy of particular sites; the clear optimal value of preferred habitat cover for species landscape‐level abundance is a surprisingly low value (10% within a 4 km buffer); landscape metrics exert different effects on species occupancy and abundance in high versus low population density regions of our study area. We conclude that knowledge of regional variation in landscape utilization will be essential for successful conservation of the species. The results also support the view that large‐scale landscape variables have high predictive power in explaining species abundance. Our study demonstrates the complex response of species occurrence at different levels of population configuration on landscape structure. The study also highlights the need for data in large spatial scale to increase the precision of biodiversity mapping and prediction of future trends.     

Predicting spatial occurrence of beetles and pseudoscorpions in hollow oaks in southeastern Sweden

We modelled presence/absence per tree of beetles and pseudoscorpions living in tree hollows in relation to trunk circumference, habitat openness, and connectivity (= density of hollow oaks in the surrounding area), using data from 281 oaks. The presence/absence models were then used to predict species’ occurrences in a county (11,600 km²) in southeastern Sweden. For eight of the nine species, the most parsimonious occupancy model included a positive relationship with connectivity and at least one tree characteristic. Occupancy underestimates from occurrence records—the ratio of the area of occupancy based on our predictive model to the area of occupancy based on occurrence records—varied between 3 and 83 among species when using occurrence records up to 1993, with significantly larger underestimates for smaller beetle species. Today (after extensive surveys), underestimation has decreased to 1.3–25, confirming that calculations solely based on species occurrence records greatly underestimate the area of occupancy. We suggest this should be taken into account to a greater extent and in a clearer way than today when constructing red lists. The radius of the connectivity measure that generated the best fit varied between 135 and 2,857 m among species, with longer distances for more threatened species. Consequently, preservation of the most threatened species (Elater ferrugineus and Tenebrio opacus) requires conservation efforts at larger spatial scales than required to protect Osmoderma eremita, which frequently has been used as an indicator and umbrella species.     

Predicting distributions of seven bitterling fishes in northern Kyushu,Japan

The distributions of seven bitterling species and subspecies—Tanakia lanceolata, T. limbata, Acheilognathus tabira nakamurae, A. rhombeus, Rhodeus ocellatus kurumeus, R. ocellatus ocellatus, and R. atremius atremius—in northern Kyushu were predicted using generalized linear models (GLMs) in order to provide information helpful for conserving native bitterlings and preventing the expansion of alien bitterling species. Predictions were made according to the following procedure: (1) a set of GLMs for each species was formulated using environmental data from 710 sites that were derived using digital maps and GIS software, from which the best fit model for each species was selected using the Akaike information criterion for predicting the fish occurrence, (2) model performance was evaluated based on the receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) analysis using occurrence and environmental data from 362 sites, and (3) potential distributions of the bitterling were analyzed using the best fit models and environmental data for 1,272 sites, of which 200 data points without occurrence data were prepared. The best fit models revealed that 4–6 environmental factors were important in predicting seven bitterling distributions, which was supported by the area under the ROC curve (AUC) values of these fishes ranging from 0.753 to 0.927. The AUC values in model evaluation were significantly greater than 0.5 for six fishes, suggesting the moderate accuracies of these best fit models for predicting the fish distributions. These predictive models can be used for evaluating potential native bitterling richness and the potential distribution expansion of an alien subspecies.     

Evolutionary relationships among pollinators and repeated pollinator sharing in sexually deceptive orchids

The mechanism of pollinator attraction is predicted to strongly influence both plant diversification and the extent of pollinator sharing between species. Sexually deceptive orchids rely on mimicry of species‐specific sex pheromones to attract their insect pollinators. Given that sex pheromones tend to be conserved among related species, we predicted that in sexually deceptive orchids, (i) pollinator sharing is rare, (ii) closely related orchids use closely related pollinators and (iii) there is strong bias in the wasp lineages exploited by orchids. We focused on species that are pollinated by sexual deception of thynnine wasps in the distantly related genera Caladenia and Drakaea, including new field observations for 45 species of Caladenia. Specialization was extreme with most orchids using a single pollinator species. Unexpectedly, seven cases of pollinator sharing were found, including two between Caladenia and Drakaea, which exhibit strikingly different floral morphology. Phylogenetic analysis of pollinators using four nuclear sequence loci demonstrated that although orchids within major clades primarily use closely related pollinator species, up to 17% of orchids within these clades are pollinated by a member of a phylogenetically distant wasp genus. Further, compared to the total diversity of thynnine wasps within the study region, orchids show a strong bias towards exploiting certain genera. Although these patterns may arise through conservatism in the chemical classes used in sex pheromones, apparent switches between wasp clades suggest unexpected flexibility in floral semiochemical production. Alternatively, wasp sex pheromones within lineages may exhibit greater chemical diversity than currently appreciated.     

Testing the utility of species distribution modelling using Random Forests for a species in decline

Habitat suitability estimates derived from species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to guide management of threatened species. Poorly estimating species’ ranges can lead to underestimation of threatened status, undervaluing of remaining habitat and misdirection of conservation funding. We aimed to evaluate the utility of a SDM, similar to the models used to inform government regulation of habitat in our study region, in estimating the contemporary distribution of a threatened and declining species. We developed a presence‐only SDM for the endangered New Holland Mouse (Pseudomys novaehollandiae) across Victoria, Australia. We conducted extensive camera trap surveys across model‐predicted and expert‐selected areas to generate an independent data set for use in evaluating the model, determining confidence in absence data from non‐detection sites with occupancy and detectability modelling. We assessed the predictive capacity of the model at thresholds based on (1) sum of sensitivity and specificity (SSS), and (2) the lowest presence threshold (LPT; i.e. the lowest non‐zero model‐predicted habitat suitability value at which we detected the species). We detected P. novaehollandiae at 40 of 472 surveyed sites, with strong support for the species’ probable absence from non‐detection sites. Based on our post hoc optimised SSS threshold of the SDM, 25% of our detection sites were falsely predicted as non‐suitable habitat and 75% of sites predicted as suitable habitat did not contain the species at the time of our survey. One occupied site had a model‐predicted suitability value of zero, and at the LPT, 88% of sites predicted as suitable habitat did not contain the species at the time of our survey. Our findings demonstrate that application of generic SDMs in both regulatory and investment contexts should be tempered by considering their limitations and currency. Further, we recommend engaging species experts in the extrapolation and application of SDM outputs.     

Use of environmental predictors for vegetation mapping in semi‐arid mountain rangelands and the determination of conservation hotspots

Question: Can we predict the spatial distribution of plant communities in semi‐arid rangelands based on a limited set of environmental variables? Where are priority areas for conservation located? Location: Al Jabal al Akhdar, Sultanate of Oman. Methods: A Classification Tree Analysis (CTA) was used to model the presence/absence of seven rangeland communities and agricultural areas based on seven selected environmental predictor variables. The latter were either obtained from existing digital datasets or derived from a digital elevation model and satellite images, whereas the grazing intensity was spatially modelled with the kernel density estimation technique. The resulting decision rules of a CTA were applied for predictive mapping within the study area (400 km², resolution of 5 m) by means of ENVI's decision tree classifier. Plant communities of natural rangelands were subsequently evaluated to determine priority areas for nature conservation. Results: Altitude, grazing intensity and landform revealed the highest predictive power. Most of the rangelands were predicted as Sideroxylon–Oleetum. The overall classification accuracy was 89%, whereby agricultural areas and the Ziziphus spina‐christi‐Nerium oleander community at wadi sites had no misclassification. Inaccuracies occurred mainly because of low sample numbers and errors in available maps of predictor variables. The highest rank for nature conservation was observed for the Teucrio‐Juniperetum occupying 20% of the study area. Conclusions: Vegetation mapping using CTA is a valuable tool for rangeland monitoring and identification of key representative areas for nature conservation. An extrapolation of the model used might be feasible to regions adjacent to the central Hajar Mountains.     

Distribution of behaviours and species interactions within home range contours in five Caribbean reef fish species (Family Labridae)

Synopsis This study investigated the distribution of behaviours and species interactions within home range contours in five Caribbean labrid species: Halichoeres bivittatus, H. garnoti, H. maculipinna, H. poeyi, and Thalassoma bifasciatum. For this study, contours were defined as: (a) 30%—the core use area, (b) 30–75%—the intermediate activity area, and (c) 75–95%—the peripheral activity area. Behaviours analyzed for this study included: (i) feeding (=biting the substrate or chewing), (ii) chased by pomacentrids, (iii) swimming alone, (iv) swimming with other fishes, and (v) all activities with other fishes. Fifty-nine percent of Halichoeres bivittatus observed showed a higher frequency than expected being chased by pomacentrids in the peripheral region of their home ranges. Halichoeres garnoti showed a lower frequency than expected swimming with other individuals in their core use area, and 64% of the individuals observed showed a higher frequency than expected being chased by pomacentrids in the peripheral region. In general, H. maculipinna exhibited a random distribution of behaviours throughout their home range areas, with a non-significant trend for more agonistic interactions with pomacentrids in peripheral regions. Halichoeres poeyi and T. bifasciatum showed higher frequencies than expected being chased by pomacentrids in the peripheral regions. Overall, the non-random distribution of agonistic interactions with pomacentrids throughout home range areas suggests that the presence or prior residence of territorial pomacentrids on coral reefs may modify the post-settlement selection of home range areas by these labrid species.     

Tree leaf litter composition and nonnative earthworms influence plant invasion in experimental forest floor mesocosms

Dominant tree species influence community and ecosystem components through the quantity and quality of their litter. Effects of litter may be modified by activity of ecosystem engineers such as earthworms. We examined the interacting effects of forest litter type and earthworm presence on invasibility of plants into forest floor environments using a greenhouse mesocosm experiment. We crossed five litter treatments mimicking historic and predicted changes in dominant tree composition with a treatment of either the absence or presence of nonnative earthworms. We measured mass loss of each litter type and growth of a model nonnative plant species (Festuca arundinacea, fescue) sown into each mesocosm. Mass loss was greater for litter of tree species characterized by lower C:N ratios. Earthworms enhanced litter mass loss, but only for species with lower C:N, leading to a significant litter × earthworm interaction. Fescue biomass was significantly greater in treatments with litter of low C:N and greater mass loss, suggesting that rapid decomposition of forest litter may be more favorable to understory plant invasions. Earthworms were expected to enhance invasion by increasing mass loss and removing the physical barrier of litter. However, earthworms typically reduced invasion success but not under invasive tree litter where the presence of earthworms facilitated invasion success compared to other litter treatments where earthworms were present. We conclude that past and predicted future shifts in dominant tree species may influence forest understory invasibility. The presence of nonnative earthworms may either suppress of facilitate invasibility depending on the species of dominant overstory tree species and the litter layers they produce.     

Predicting the distribution of four species of raptors (Aves: Accipitridae) in southern Spain: statistical models work better than existing maps

Aim To test the effectiveness of statistical models based on explanatory environmental variables vs. existing distribution information (maps and breeding atlas), for predicting the distribution of four species of raptors (family Accipitridae): common buzzard Buteo buteo (Linnaeus, 1758), short‐toed eagle Circaetus gallicus (Gmelin, 1788), booted eagle Hieraaetus pennatus (Gmelin, 1788) and black kite Milvus migrans (Boddaert, 1783). Location Andalusia, southern Spain. Methods Generalized linear models of 10 × 10 km squares surveyed for the presence/absence of the species by road census. Statistical models use as predictors variables derived from topography, vegetation and land‐use, and the geographical coordinates (to take account of possible spatial trends). Predictions from the models are compared with current distribution maps from the national breeding atlas and leading reference works. Results The maps derived from statistical models for all four species were more predictive than the previously published range maps and the recent national breeding atlas. The best models incorporated both topographic and vegetation and land‐use variables. Further, in three of the four species the inclusion of spatial coordinates to account for neighbourhood effects improved these models. Models for the common buzzard and black kite were highly predictive and easy to interpret from an ecological point of view, while models for short‐toed eagle and, particularly, booted eagle were not so easy to interpret, but still predicted better than previous distribution information. Main conclusions It is possible to build accurate predictive models for raptor distribution with a limited field survey using as predictors environmental variables derived from digital maps. These models integrated in a geographical information system produced distribution maps that were more accurate than previously published ones for the study species in the study area. Our study is an example of a methodology that could be used for many taxa and areas to improve unreliable distribution information.     

Probabilistic modeling and mapping of plant indicator species in a Northeast Oregon industrial forest,USA

Managing forest ecosystems for sustainable, multiple use requires forest resource managers to understand and predict how plant species composition and distribution varies across environmental gradients and responds to landscape scale disturbances. This study demonstrates predictive vegetation modeling and mapping for a Northeast Oregon forest using non-parametric Multiplicative Regression (NPMR) with presence/absence data for the species Clintonia uniflora (CLUN) and a set of stand structural and raster-based predictor variables. NPMR is a flexible probability modeling system that can find the best subset of habitat factors influencing species occurrence. NPMR was compared with logistic regression (LR) by building reduced models from variables selected as best by NPMR and full models from variables identified as significant with a forward stepwise process and further manual testing. log β was used to select models with the highest predictive capability. NPMR models were less complex and had higher predictive capability than LR for all modeling approaches. Spatial coordinates were among the most powerful predictors and the modeling approach with physiographic and stand structural variables together was the most improved relative to the average frequency of occurrence. GIS probability maps produced with the application of the physiographic models showed good spatial congruence between high probability values and plots that contained CLUN. NPMR proved to be a reliable probability modeling and mapping tool that could be used as the analytical link between monitoring and quantifying the status and trends of vegetation resources.     

Habitat suitability models to make conservation decisions based on areas of high species richness and endemism

Biodiversity positively relates with the provisioning of ecosystem services and preserving areas with elevated diversity of highly-functional species could help to ensure human well-being. Most studies addressed to make these decisions use maps relying on species occurrences, where sites containing several species are proposed as priority conservation areas. These maps, however, may underestimate species richness because of the incompleteness of occurrence data. To improve this methodology, we propose using habitat suitability models to estimate the potential distribution of species from occurrence data, and later shaping richness maps by overlapping these predicted distribution ranges. We tested this proposal with Mexican oaks because they provide several ecosystem services and habitat suitability models of species were calibrated with MaxEnt. We used linear regressions to compare the outputs of these predictive maps with those of maps based on species occurrences only and, for both mapping methods, we assessed how much surface of sites with elevated richness and endemism of oaks is currently included within nature reserves. Both mapping methods indicated that oak species are concentrated in mountain regions of Mexico, but predictive maps based on habitat suitability models indicated higher oak richness and endemism that maps based on species occurrences only. Our results also indicated that nature reserves cover a small fraction of areas harboring elevated richness and endemism of oaks. These results suggest that estimating richness across extensive geographic regions using habitat suitability models quickly provides accurate information to make conservation decisions for highly-functional species groups.     

Surprisingly high orchid diversity in travertine and forest areas in the Huanglong valley, China, and implications for conservation

The presence of such a large number of terrestrial orchid species in a small area (ca. 1 km²) of the Huanglong valley in southwestern China is uncommon for this country. Studying the relationship between the distribution patterns of these orchid species and their microenvironments may help us understand this uncommon phenomenon. We established 662 1 m × 1 m plots, measured the cover of each species and found that there were 33 orchid species distributed mainly in two different habitats, i.e. travertine areas and forest. In the travertine areas, 30 orchid species were found; the six most common ones being Cypripedium bardolphianum, Cypripedium flavum, Cypripedium tibeticum, Galearis diantha, Ponerorchis chusua and Phaius delavayi. However in the forested habitat, we found 21 orchid species; the most common ones being Tipularia szechuanica and Goodyera repens. Travertine areas had a higher number of orchid species as well as higher numbers of orchid species per plot as compared to forest. Light availability seems critical to the performance and distribution of orchid species. Stream flow through the travertine area during the orchids growing season appears to be an important factor in shaping and maintaining stable microenvironments favorable to the growth and reproduction of orchids. The results presented in this study suggest that some orchid species in the travertine area might be threatened if the travertine stream flows were to change or be disrupted.     

On the genomics of immunoglobulins in the gray,short-tailed opossum <Emphasis Type="Italic">Monodelphis domestica</Emphasis>

Annotated maps of the IGH, IGK, and IGL loci in the gray, short-tailed opossum Monodelphis domestica were generated from analyses of the available whole genome sequence for this species. Analyses of their content and organization confirmed a number of previous conclusions based on characterization of complementary DNAs encoding opossum immunoglobulin heavy and light chains and limited genomic analysis, including (a) the predominance of a single immunoglobulin heavy chain variable region (IGHV) subgroup and clan, (b) the presence of a single immunoglobulin (Ig)G subclass, (c) the apparent absence of an IgD, and (d) the general organization and V gene complexity of the IGK and IGL light chain loci. In addition, several unexpected discoveries were made including the presence of a partial V to D, germline-joined IGHV segment, the first germline-joined Ig V gene to be found in a mammal. In addition was the presence of a larger number of IGKV subgroups than had been previously identified. With this report, annotated maps of the major histocompatibility complex, T-cell receptor, and immunoglobulin loci have been completed for M. domestica, the only non-eutherian mammalian species for which this has been accomplished, strengthening the utility of this species as a model organism. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Development of “universal” gene-specific markers from Malus spp. cDNA sequences, their mapping and use in synteny studies within Rosaceae

The Rosaceae contains many economically valuable crop genera, including Malus (apple), Fragaria (strawberry), and Prunus (stone fruit). There has been increasing interest in the development of linkage maps for these species, with a view to marker-assisted selection to assist breeding programs and, recently, in the development of transferable markers to permit syntenic comparisons of maps of different rosaceous genera. In this investigation, a set of Malus cDNA sequences were downloaded from the European Molecular Biology Laboratory database. The sequences were aligned with homologous full-length Arabidopsis genomic DNA sequences to identify putative intron–exon junctions and conserved flanking exon sequences. Primer pairs were designed from the conserved exon sequences flanking predicted intron–exon junctions in the Malus cDNA sequences. These were used to amplify products by polymerase chain reaction from the parents of the Malus mapping progeny “Fiesta” × “Totem.” Eleven loci, representing ten genes (39%), were polymorphic in the “Fiesta” × “Totem” population and mapped to seven Malus linkage groups. Transferability to other rosaceous genera was high, with primer pairs representing 85% of genes, amplifying products from Fragaria and primer pairs representing 85% of genes, amplifying products from Prunus genomic DNA. These primers were screened in the Fragaria and Prunus mapping bin sets and 38% of the genes were successfully located on both maps. Analysis of the markers mapped in more than one rosaceous genus revealed patterns of synteny between genera, while a comparison with the physical positions of homologous genes on the Arabidopsis genome revealed high sequence conservation but only fragmentary patterns of macrosynteny.     

Quantitative estimation of vegetation changes by comparing two vegetation maps

The main goal of our work was to estimate how large the errors are associated with repeated vegetation mapping. We compared two vegetation maps (both 1:10 000) of the Pieniny National Park—ca 2300 ha (southern Poland), the first made in 1966 and the second in 2001. We superimposed—using the ARC-INFO software—a dense grid of points (50 × 50 m) upon each map, and we determined the identity of vegetation unit in each point for the year 1966 and for the year 2001. That procedure was repeated 100 times, each time changing the position of the grid by a random vector. To estimate the size of mapping errors, we compared the patches of communities which should not change their location during 35 years: vegetation of rocky outcrops and local wet depressions, and fertile beech forest, considered a climax community for the Pieniny Mountains. Overlapping small vegetation patches (average patch size below 0.5 ha) yielded highly erroneous results, while the reliability of overlapping the communities with large patches is much higher, exceeding 80% for average patch size of 5 ha. Taking into consideration the communities of average patch size of 1 ha, we can estimate that the vegetation has undergone profound changes: some communities expanded, while others shrunk. The area of meadows remained about the same, but majority of meadows in 2001 was located in former arable fields and previous meadow areas become forested. Among beech forests, we recorded an increase of area covered by floristically rich variants at the expense of floristically poor variants. We conclude that some information about vegetation changes may be obtained only by comparing sequential vegetation maps, but the reliability of the results strongly depends on the size of vegetation patches.     

The nutrient status of epiphytes and their host trees along an elevational gradient in Costa Rica

Vascular epiphytes are a conspicuous and highly diverse group in tropical wet forests; yet, we understand little about their mineral nutrition across sites. In this study, we examined the mineral nutrition of three dominant vascular epiphyte groups: ferns, orchids, and bromeliads, and their host trees from samples collected along a 2600 m elevational gradient in the tropical wet forests of Costa Rica. We predicted that the mineral nutrition of ferns, orchids, and bromeliads would differ because of their putative differences in nutrient acquisition mechanisms and nutrient sources—atmospherically dependent, foliar feeding bromeliads would have lower nitrogen (N) and phosphorous (P) concentrations and more depleted δ¹⁵N values than those in canopy soil-rooted ferns because canopy soil is higher in available N, and more enriched in δ¹⁵N than the atmospheric sources of precipitation and throughfall. We also predicted that epiphyte foliar chemistry would mirror that of host trees because of the likely contribution of host trees to the nutrient cycle of epiphytes via foliar leaching and litter contributions to canopy soil. In the same vein, we predicted that epiphyte and host tree foliar chemistry would vary with elevation reflecting ecosystem-level nutrients—soil N availability increases and P availability decreases with increasing elevation. Our results confirmed that canopy soil-rooted epiphytes had higher N concentrations than atmospheric epiphytes; however, our predictions were not confirmed with respect to P which did not vary among groups indicating fixed P availability within sites. In addition, foliar δ¹⁵N values did not match our prediction in that canopy soil-rooted as well as atmospheric epiphytes had variable signatures. Discriminant function analysis (DFA) on foliar measurements determined that ferns, orchids, and bromeliads are statistically distinct in mineral nutrition. We also found that P concentrations of ferns and orchids, but not bromeliads, were significantly correlated with those of host trees indicating a possible link in their mineral nutrition’s via canopy soil. Interestingly, we did not find any patterns of epiphyte foliar chemistry with elevation. These data indicate that the mineral nutrition of the studied epiphyte groups are distinct and highly variable within sites and the diverse uptake mechanisms of these epiphyte groups enhance resource partitioning which may be a mechanism for species richness maintenance in tropical forest canopies.     

A specialised pollination system using nectar‐seeking thynnine wasps in Caladenia nobilis (Orchidaceae)

• Caladenia is a diverse Australian genus that is exceptional among orchids in having both species pollinated by food‐seeking and sexually deceived insects. Here, we investigated the pollination of Caladenia nobilis, a species predicted to be food‐deceptive due to its large, cream‐coloured and apparently nectarless flowers.
• Pollinator observations were made using experimental clumps of flowers. Measurements of floral colour were undertaken with a spectrometer, nectar was tested using GC‐MS, and reproductive success was quantified for 2 years.
• While C. nobilis attracted nine species of insect, only males of the thynnine wasp Rhagigaster discrepans exhibited the correct size and behaviour to remove and deposit pollen. Male R. discrepans attempted to feed from the surface of the labellum, often crawling to multiple flowers, but showed no evidence of sexual attraction. Most flowers produced little or no nectar, although some may provide enough sucrose to act as a meagre reward to pollinators. Floral colouration was similar to a related Caladenia species pollinated by sexual deception, although the sexually deceptive species had a dull‐red labellum. Reproductive success was generally low and highly variable between sites and years.
• In addition to most visitors being of inappropriate size for pollinia removal, the lack of response to the orchid by several co‐occurring species of thynnine wasp suggests filtering of potential pollinators at the attraction phase. Our discovery of a pollination strategy that may be intermediate between food deception and food reward raises the question, how many putatively rewardless orchids actually produce meagre amounts of nectar?

     

Geographical patterns in prediction errors of species distribution models

Aim To describe and explain geographical patterns of false absence and false presence prediction errors that occur when describing current plant species ranges with species distribution models. Location Europe. Methods We calibrated species distribution models (generalized linear models) using a set of climatic variables and gridded distribution data for 1065 vascular plant species from the Atlas Florae Europaeae. We used randomly selected subsets for each species with a constant prevalence of 0.5, modelled the distribution 1000 times, calculated weighted averages of the model parameters and used these to predict the current distribution in Europe. Using a threshold of 0.5, we derived presence/absence maps. Comparing observed and modelled species distribution, we calculated the false absence rates, i.e. species wrongly modelled as absent, and the false presence rates, i.e. species wrongly modelled as present, on a 50 × 50 km grid. Subsequently, we related both error rates to species range properties, land use and topographic variability within grid cells by means of simultaneous autoregressive models to correct for spatial autocorrelation. Results Grid‐cell‐specific error rates were not evenly distributed across Europe. The mean false absence rate was 0.16 ± 0.12 (standard deviation) and the mean false presence rate was 0.22 ± 0.13. False absence rates were highest in central Spain, the Alps and parts of south‐eastern Europe, while false presence rates were highest in northern Spain, France, Italy and south‐eastern Europe. False absence rates were high when range edges of species accumulated within a grid cell and when the intensity of human land use was high. False presence rates were positively associated with relative occurrence area and accumulation of range edges. Main conclusions Predictions for various species are not only accompanied by species‐specific but also by grid‐cell‐specific errors. The latter are associated with characteristics of the grid cells but also with range characteristics of occurring species. Uncertainties of predictive species distribution models are not equally distributed in space, and we would recommend accompanying maps of predicted distributions with a graphical representation of predictive performance.     

Construction of an intra-specific sweet cherry (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Prunus avium</Emphasis> L.) genetic linkage map and synteny analysis with the <Emphasis Type="Italic">Prunus</Emphasis> reference map

Linkage maps of the sweet cherry cultivar ‘Emperor Francis’ (EF) and the wild forest cherry ‘New York 54’ (NY) were constructed using primarily simple sequence repeat (SSR) markers and gene-derived markers with known positions on the Prunus reference map. The success rate for identifying SSR markers that could be placed on either the EF or NY maps was only 26% due to two factors: a reduced transferability of other Prunus-species-derived markers and a low level of polymorphism in the mapping parents. To increase marker density, we developed four cleaved amplified polymorphic sequence markers (CAPS), 19 derived CAPS markers, and four insertion–deletion markers for cherry based on 101 Prunus expressed sequence tags. In addition, four gene-derived markers representing orthologs of a tomato vacuolar invertase and fruit size gene and two sour cherry sorbitol transporters were developed. To complete the linkage analysis, 61 amplified fragment length polymorphism and seven sequence-related amplified polymorphism markers were also used for map construction. This analysis resulted in the expected eight linkage groups for both parents. The EF and NY maps were 711.1 cM and 565.8 cM, respectively, with the average distance between markers of 4.94 cM and 6.22 cM. A total of 82 shared markers between the EF and NY maps and the Prunus reference map showed that the majority of the marker orders were the same with the Prunus reference map suggesting that the cherry genome is colinear with that of the other diploid Prunus species. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.