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Atmospheric CO2 concentrations are now 1.7 times higher than the preindustrial values. Although photosynthetic rates are hypothesized to increase in response to rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations, results from in situ experiments are inconsistent in supporting a CO2 fertilization effect of tree growth. Tree‐ring data provide a historical record of tree‐level productivity that can be used to evaluate long‐term responses of tree growth. We use tree‐ring data from old‐growth, subalpine forests of western Canada that have not had a stand‐replacing disturbance for hundreds of years to determine if growth has increased over 19th and 20th centuries. Our sample consisted of 5,858 trees belonging to five species distributed over two sites in the coastal zone and two in the continental climate of the interior. We calculated annual increments in tree basal area, adjusted these increments for tree size and age, and tested whether there was a detectable temporal trend in tree growth over the 19th and 20th centuries. We found a similar pattern in 20th century growth trends among all species at all sites. Growth during the 19th century was mostly stable or increasing, with the exception of one of the coastal sites, where tree growth was slightly decreasing; whereas growth during the 20th century consistently decreased. The unexpected decrease in growth during the 20th century indicates that there was no CO2 fertilization effect on photosynthesis. We compared the growth trends from our four sites to the trends simulated by seven Earth System Models, and saw that most of the models did not predict these growth declines. Overall, our results indicate that these old‐growth forests are unlikely to increase their carbon storage capacity in response to rising atmospheric CO2, and thus are unlikely to contribute substantially to offsetting future carbon emissions.  相似文献   

3.
大兴安岭北部樟子松树木生长与气候因子的关系   总被引:6,自引:1,他引:6       下载免费PDF全文
 在大兴安岭北部漠河(MH I、MH II 2个样点)、塔河蒙克山(MKS)、满归(MG)地区共采集樟子松(Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica)年轮样芯139个, 成功地建立了MH I、MH II、MKS和MG 4个样点的樟子松差值年表, 最长达377年(1631–2007年, 有效年表为1743–2007年)。樟子松年轮指数与气候因子的响应函数分析表明, 气温是这4个样点樟子松径向生长的主要限制因子。但4个样点限制其生长的月份有所差异, 漠河的2个样点樟子松年轮指数与6月气温负相关, 满归和塔河蒙克山樟子松年轮指数与前一年10月气温正相关。樟子松年表与区域气候的冗余分析(redundancy analysis, RDA)基本与响应函数分析的结果一致, 进一步验证了气温对大兴安岭北部樟子松生长的限制作用。该研究为全球变暖下大兴安岭北部樟子松林的经营管理及区域气候重建提供了基础数据。  相似文献   

4.
Growth models can be used to assess forest vulnerability to climate warming. If global warming amplifies water deficit in drought‐prone areas, tree populations located at the driest and southernmost distribution limits (rear‐edges) should be particularly threatened. Here, we address these statements by analyzing and projecting growth responses to climate of three major tree species (silver fir, Abies alba; Scots pine, Pinus sylvestris; and mountain pine, Pinus uncinata) in mountainous areas of NE Spain. This region is subjected to Mediterranean continental conditions, it encompasses wide climatic, topographic and environmental gradients, and, more importantly, it includes rear‐edges of the continuous distributions of these tree species. We used tree‐ring width data from a network of 110 forests in combination with the process‐based Vaganov–Shashkin‐Lite growth model and climate–growth analyses to forecast changes in tree growth during the 21st century. Climatic projections were based on four ensembles CO2 emission scenarios. Warm and dry conditions during the growing season constrain silver fir and Scots pine growth, particularly at the species rear‐edge. By contrast, growth of high‐elevation mountain pine forests is enhanced by climate warming. The emission scenario (RCP 8.5) corresponding to the most pronounced warming (+1.4 to 4.8 °C) forecasted mean growth reductions of ?10.7% and ?16.4% in silver fir and Scots pine, respectively, after 2050. This indicates that rising temperatures could amplify drought stress and thus constrain the growth of silver fir and Scots pine rear‐edge populations growing at xeric sites. Contrastingly, mountain pine growth is expected to increase by +12.5% due to a longer and warmer growing season. The projections of growth reduction in silver fir and Scots pine portend dieback and a contraction of their species distribution areas through potential local extinctions of the most vulnerable driest rear‐edge stands. Our modeling approach provides accessible tools to evaluate forest vulnerability to warmer conditions.  相似文献   

5.
伊春地区红松和红皮云杉径向生长对气候变化的响应   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
树木生长-气候关系对准确评估气候变化对森林生态系统影响、预测森林生产力与植被动态及揭示树木对气候变化的响适应策略至关重要。在全球变暖背景下,升温可能会对树木的生长产生影响,从而改变区域森林生态系统的生产力或碳储量。本研究利用生长-气候响应函数、滑动相关分析等树木年轮学方法,探讨伊春地区阔叶红松林内红松和红皮云杉径向生长的主要限制因子及两者径向生长对快速升温(1980年后)响应的异同。结果表明:1980年前红松径向生长有明显加速的趋势,红皮云杉上升趋势较弱;而1980年后红松径向生长趋势显著下降,红皮云杉则下降不明显。红皮云杉径向生长与上一年9月及当年6月平均气温显著负相关,而红松径向生长与上一年12月及当年1月、4月和6月最低气温显著正相关。1980年快速升温后,高温对两树种生长的抑制作用增强,尤其是红松。生长季末(9月)降水对红松和红皮云杉的限制作用由升温前的负相关转变为升温后的显著正相关。温度是限制红松和红皮云杉径向生长的主要气候因子,降水影响相对较弱;其中红松径向生长对气候变化的响应比红皮云杉更敏感。快速升温后,红松和红皮云杉生长-气候关系的变化可能与升温导致的暖干旱化有关。若气候变暖持续或加剧,二者径向生长的气候限制因子也将由温度转变为水分;红松和红皮云杉会出现生长衰退,尤其是红松。  相似文献   

6.
During the 20th century, high mortality rates of Scots pine (Pinus silvestris L.) have been observed over large areas in the Rhône valley (Valais, Switzerland) and in other dry valleys of the European Alps. In this study, we evaluated drought as a possible inciting factor of Scots pine decline in the Valais. Averaged tree-ring widths, standardized tree-ring series, and estimated annual mortality risks were related to a drought index. Correlations between drought indices and standardized tree-ring series from 11 sites showed a moderate association. Several drought years and drought periods could be detected since 1864 that coincided with decreased growth. Although single, extreme drought years had generally a short-term, reversible effect on tree growth, multi-year drought initiated prolonged growth decreases that increased a tree’s long-term risk of death. Tree death occurred generally several years or even decades after the drought. In conclusion, drought has a limiting effect on tree growth and acts as a bottleneck event in triggering Scots pine decline in the Valais.  相似文献   

7.
North American fire‐adapted forests are experiencing changes in fire frequency and climate. These novel conditions may alter postwildfire responses of fire‐adapted trees that survive fires, a topic that has received little attention. Historical, frequent, low‐intensity wildfire in many fire‐adapted forests is generally thought to have a positive effect on the growth and vigor of trees that survive fires. Whether such positive effects can persist under current and future climate conditions is not known. Here, we evaluate long‐term responses to recurrent 20th‐century fires in ponderosa pine, a fire‐adapted tree species, in unlogged forests in north central Idaho. We also examine short‐term responses to individual 20th‐century fires and evaluate whether these responses have changed over time and whether potential variability relates to climate variables and time since last fire. Growth responses were assessed by comparing tree‐ring measurements from trees in stands burned repeatedly during the 20th century at roughly the historical fire frequency with trees in paired control stands that had not burned for at least 70 years. Contrary to expectations, only one site showed significant increases in long‐term growth responses in burned stands compared with control stands. Short‐term responses showed a trend of increasing negative effects of wildfire (reduced diameter growth in the burned stand compared with the control stand) in recent years that had drier winters and springs. There was no effect of time since the previous fire on growth responses to fire. The possible relationships of novel climate conditions with negative tree growth responses in trees that survive fire are discussed. A trend of negative growth responses to wildfire in old‐growth forests could have important ramifications for forest productivity and carbon balance under future climate scenarios.  相似文献   

8.
The ongoing climatic changes potentially affect plant growth and the functioning of temperature‐limited high‐altitude and high‐latitude ecosystems; the rate and magnitude of these biotic changes are, however, uncertain. The aim of this study was to reconstruct stand structure and growth forms of Larix sibirica (Ledeb.) in undisturbed forest–tundra ecotones of the remote Polar Urals on a centennial time scale. Comparisons of the current ecotone with historic photographs from the 1960s clearly document that forests have significantly expanded since then. Similarly, the analysis of forest age structure based on more than 300 trees sampled along three altitudinal gradients reaching from forests in the valleys to the tundra indicate that more than 70% of the currently upright‐growing trees are <80 years old. Because thousands of more than 500‐year‐old subfossil trees occur in the same area but tree remnants of the 15–19th century are lacking almost entirely, we conclude that the forest has been expanding upwards into the formerly tree‐free tundra during the last century by about 20–60 m in altitude. This upward shift of forests was accompanied by significant changes in tree growth forms: while 36% of the few trees that are more than 100 years old were multi‐stem tree clusters, 90% of the trees emerging after 1950 were single‐stemmed. Tree‐ring analysis of horizontal and vertical stems of multi‐stemmed larch trees showed that these trees had been growing in a creeping form since the 15th century. In the early 20th century, they started to grow upright with 5–20 stems per tree individual. The incipient vertical growth led to an abrupt tripling in radial growth and thus, in biomass production. Based on above‐ and belowground biomass measurements of 33 trees that were dug out and the mapping of tree height and diameter, we estimated that forest expansion led to a biomass increase by 40–75 t ha?1 and a carbon accumulation of approximately 20–40 g C m?2 yr?1 during the last century. The forest expansion and change in growth forms coincided with significant summer warming by 0.9 °C and a doubling of winter precipitation during the 20th century. In summary, our results indicate that the ongoing climatic changes are already leaving a fingerprint on the appearance, structure, and productivity of the treeline ecotone in the Polar Urals.  相似文献   

9.
Different tree species growing in the same area may have different, or even contrasting growth responses to climate change. Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis) and Mongolia oak (Quercus mongolica) are two crucial tree species in temperate forest ecosystems. Six tree-ring chronologies for Korean pine and Mongolia oak were developed by using the zero-signal method to explore their growth response to the recent climate warming in northeast China. Results showed that Mongolia oak radial growth was mainly limited by precipitation in the growing season, while Korean pine growth depended on temperature condition, especially monthly minimum temperature. With the latitude decrease, the relationships between Korean pine growth and monthly precipitation changed from negative to positive correlation, while the positive correlation with monthly temperature gradually weakened. In the contrary, Mongolia oak growth at the three sampling sites was significantly and positively correlated with precipitation in the growing season, while it was negatively correlated with temperature and this relationship decreased with the latitude decrease. The radial growth of Korean pine at different sites showed a clearly discrepant responses to the recent warming since 1980. Korean pine growth in the north site increased with the temperature increase, decreased in the midwest site, and almost unchanged in the southeast site. Conversely, Mongolia oak growth was less affected by the recent climate warming. Our finding suggested that tree species trait and sites are both key factors that affect the response of tree growth to climate change. In addition, the suitable distribution area of Korean pine may be moved northward with the continued global warming in the future, but Mongolia oak may not shift in the same way.  相似文献   

10.

Background

The synergetic effects of recent rising atmospheric CO2 and temperature are expected to favor tree growth in boreal and temperate forests. However, recent dendrochronological studies have shown site-specific unprecedented growth enhancements or declines. The question of whether either of these trends is caused by changes in the atmosphere remains unanswered because dendrochronology alone has not been able to clarify the physiological basis of such trends.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Here we combined standard dendrochronological methods with carbon isotopic analysis to investigate whether atmospheric changes enhanced water use efficiency (WUE) and growth of two deciduous and two coniferous tree species along a 9° latitudinal gradient across temperate and boreal forests in Ontario, Canada. Our results show that although trees have had around 53% increases in WUE over the past century, growth decline (measured as a decrease in basal area increment – BAI) has been the prevalent response in recent decades irrespective of species identity and latitude. Since the 1950s, tree BAI was predominantly negatively correlated with warmer climates and/or positively correlated with precipitation, suggesting warming induced water stress. However, where growth declines were not explained by climate, WUE and BAI were linearly and positively correlated, showing that declines are not always attributable to warming induced stress and additional stressors may exist.

Conclusions

Our results show an unexpected widespread tree growth decline in temperate and boreal forests due to warming induced stress but are also suggestive of additional stressors. Rising atmospheric CO2 levels during the past century resulted in consistent increases in water use efficiency, but this did not prevent growth decline. These findings challenge current predictions of increasing terrestrial carbon stocks under climate change scenarios.  相似文献   

11.
The acclimation capacity of leading edge tree populations is crucially important in a warming climate. Theoretical considerations suggest that adaptation through genetic change is needed, but this may be a slow process. Both positive and catastrophic outcomes have been predicted, while empirical studies have lagged behind theory development. Here we present results of a 30‐year study of 55,000 Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) trees, planted in 15 common gardens in three consecutive years near and beyond the present Scots pine tree line. Our results show that, contrary to earlier predictions, even long‐distance transfers to the North can be successful when soil fertility is high. This suggests that present northern populations have a very high acclimation capacity. We also found that while temperature largely controls Scots pine growth, soil nutrient availability plays an important role—in concert with interpopulation genetic variation—in Scots pine survival and fitness in tree line conditions. These results suggest that rapid range expansions and substantial growth enhancements of Scots pine are possible in fertile sites as seed production and soil nutrient mineralization are both known to increase under a warming climate. Finally, as the ontogenetic pattern of tree mortality was highly site specific and unpredictable, our results emphasize the need for long‐term field trials when searching for the factors that control fitness of trees in the variable edaphic and climatic conditions of the far North.  相似文献   

12.
Climate change has been unprecedented in the last half-century. Tree growth dynamics and responses to climate warming at different elevations vary by study area due to regional diversity in site-specific climatic conditions in the central Hengduan Mountains. A. georgei is the dominant species in high-elevation montane forests in the central Hengduan Mountains. To study the response of A. georgei radial growth to climate and identify tree growth trends at different elevations, tree-ring width chronologies at four elevations across the subalpine A. georgei forest belt were built and growth-climate relationships were analyzed. The primary findings of this study were as follows: (1) radial growth rates of A. georgei decreased with elevation; (2) warming alleviated the limitation of low temperatures and abundant precipitation on tree radial growth at the highest sampling site; and (3) unlike at other elevations, the trend of trees basal area increment (BAI) at the lowest sampling site showed a significant decline over the past 20 years. This suggests the presence of an elevational inflection point, likely between 3800 m and 4000 m, where tree growth trends diverge. These results confirmed that A. georgei at higher elevation in the central Hengduan Mountains currently benefits from higher temperatures. However, the effects of drought on A. georgei at lower elevations would cause radial growth to decrease with climate warming. Therefore, it is critical to establish effective management strategies based on how A. georgei responds to climate change at various elevations.  相似文献   

13.
Climatic constraints on tree growth mediate an important link between terrestrial and atmospheric carbon pools. Tree rings provide valuable information on climate‐driven growth patterns, but existing data tend to be biased toward older trees on climatically extreme sites. Understanding climate change responses of biogeographic regions requires data that integrate spatial variability in growing conditions and forest structure. We analyzed both temporal (c. 1901–2010) and spatial variation in radial growth patterns in 9,876 trees from fragments of primary Picea abies forests spanning the latitudinal and altitudinal extent of the Carpathian arc. Growth was positively correlated with summer temperatures and spring moisture availability throughout the entire region. However, important seasonal variation in climate responses occurred along geospatial gradients. At northern sites, winter precipitation and October temperatures of the year preceding ring formation were positively correlated with ring width. In contrast, trees at the southern extent of the Carpathians responded negatively to warm and dry conditions in autumn of the year preceding ring formation. An assessment of regional synchronization in radial growth variability showed temporal fluctuations throughout the 20th century linked to the onset of moisture limitation in southern landscapes. Since the beginning of the study period, differences between high and low elevations in the temperature sensitivity of tree growth generally declined, while moisture sensitivity increased at lower elevations. Growth trend analyses demonstrated changes in absolute tree growth rates linked to climatic change, with basal area increments in northern landscapes and lower altitudes responding positively to recent warming. Tree growth has predominantly increased with rising temperatures in the Carpathians, accompanied by early indicators that portions of the mountain range are transitioning from temperature to moisture limitation. Continued warming will alleviate large‐scale temperature constraints on tree growth, giving increasing weight to local drivers that are more challenging to predict.  相似文献   

14.
The important role of tropical forests in the global carbon cycle makes it imperative to assess changes in their carbon dynamics for accurate projections of future climate–vegetation feedbacks. Forest monitoring studies conducted over the past decades have found evidence for both increasing and decreasing growth rates of tropical forest trees. The limited duration of these studies restrained analyses to decadal scales, and it is still unclear whether growth changes occurred over longer time scales, as would be expected if CO2‐fertilization stimulated tree growth. Furthermore, studies have so far dealt with changes in biomass gain at forest‐stand level, but insights into species‐specific growth changes – that ultimately determine community‐level responses – are lacking. Here, we analyse species‐specific growth changes on a centennial scale, using growth data from tree‐ring analysis for 13 tree species (~1300 trees), from three sites distributed across the tropics. We used an established (regional curve standardization) and a new (size‐class isolation) growth‐trend detection method and explicitly assessed the influence of biases on the trend detection. In addition, we assessed whether aggregated trends were present within and across study sites. We found evidence for decreasing growth rates over time for 8–10 species, whereas increases were noted for two species and one showed no trend. Additionally, we found evidence for weak aggregated growth decreases at the site in Thailand and when analysing all sites simultaneously. The observed growth reductions suggest deteriorating growth conditions, perhaps due to warming. However, other causes cannot be excluded, such as recovery from large‐scale disturbances or changing forest dynamics. Our findings contrast growth patterns that would be expected if elevated CO2 would stimulate tree growth. These results suggest that commonly assumed growth increases of tropical forests may not occur, which could lead to erroneous predictions of carbon dynamics of tropical forest under climate change.  相似文献   

15.
Aim  To analyse the radial growth of silver fir ( Abies alba Mill.) in north-eastern France in relation to soil, climate and interspecific competition factors and to check the temporal stability of their effects during the 20th century.
Location  The Vosges Mountains, located in north-eastern France.
Methods  Data were collected from 143 plots regularly distributed over three altitude ranges (from 330 to 1100 m), three humus forms (moder to mull) and seven types of stands, including a pure stand of silver fir and six mixed stands containing this species. For each plot, an index of mean radial growth of silver fir was calculated, independent of tree age and calendar year of ring formation. Relationships between radial growth and ecological factors were analysed using linear mixed-effects models.
Results  Radial growth of silver fir is low in the presence of Picea abies or of a high density of other dominant trees . Low aluminium concentration and good nitrogen supply, measured by the soil C:N ratio, are correlated with high radial growth. Water reserves, related to available water storage capacity and to lateral run-off, are also correlated with high radial growth. Analysis of environmental effects during the 20th century showed that growth was strongly correlated with nitrogen supply at the start of the century, and with aluminium toxicity and climate at the end of the century. The radial growth of trees located on sites with low nitrogen supply was lower before 1970 than that of trees located on nitrogen-rich soils. At the end of the century, radial growth of silver fir was the same for all levels of nitrogen nutrition.
Main conclusions  Our results indicate that nitrogen supply was a limiting factor for the mean radial growth of silver fir before the 1970s. Eutrophication during the 20th century may then have eliminated limitation by nitrogen.  相似文献   

16.
本研究以阿尔泰山富蕴地区的西伯利亚云杉和西伯利亚落叶松为对象,获取2个树种基部断面生长增量和树轮宽度年表与气候因子的相关系数,对比分析了相似生境下2个树种的径向生长特征及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明: 西伯利亚云杉基部断面生长增量总体高于西伯利亚落叶松,但西伯利亚落叶松的径向生长增加趋势更为显著。近60年来,上年快速生长期的高温对研究区内西伯利亚云杉的径向生长有限制作用,而当年6月较高的气温则有利于西伯利亚落叶松生长。西伯利亚落叶松的径向生长与当年1月气温呈负相关。分段相关分析显示,这种情况在1980年代中期气候变暖以后表现得更为明显。滑动相关分析表明,在气候变化背景下研究区内西伯利亚云杉和西伯利亚落叶松径向生长对气温和降水量的响应在近年来均有所增强。  相似文献   

17.

Key message

The post-fire growth responses and changes in wood C and N isotope composition depend on site water availability and fire severity in Mediterranean Aleppo pine forests.

Abstract

Mediterranean forests are subjected to recurrent wildfires and summer droughts. Under warmer and drier conditions, it is required to determine how Mediterranean pines recover after wildfires, and how this translates into changes in tree radial growth and function (e.g. intrinsic water-use efficiency—iWUE). We analysed four Aleppo pine areas located in SE Spain affected by 1994 wildfires and subjected to different water availability, ranging from mesic to semi-arid conditions. We combined dendrochronological analyses with δ13C and δ15N wood isotopes to quantify the changes in radial growth (expressed as Basal Area Increment—BAI) and functional responses (iWUE and N cycling) to three fire severities (unburned sites, low and medium severities). We expected that the post-fire release in nutrients and a reduction in competition for water would enhance radial growth. We found that fire did not significantly alter growth patterns at the driest sites, but increased BAI at the wettest sites. δ13C was significantly (P ≤ 0.01) more negative only in burned stands located at the wettest site indicating a decreased iWUE and thus improved water availability. However, the δ15N was higher in severely burned than in unburned plots from all sites but the wettest site, indicating a potential fertilization effect of fire in sites subjected to mild drought severity. Site water availability determined how fire affected subsequent modifications in growth and tree functioning of Aleppo pine forests, that is, changes in iWUE and N cycling. Therefore, site dryness should be explicitly considered to forecast the growth and functioning responses of Mediterranean pine forests to the predicted increasing recurrence of fire events due to global warming.
  相似文献   

18.
Evidence for reduced sensitivity of tree growth to temperature has been reported from multiple forests along the high northern latitudes. This alleged circumpolar phenomenon described the apparent inability of temperature-sensitive tree-ring width and density chronologies to parallel increasing instrumental temperature measurements since the mid-20th century. In addition to such low-frequency trend offset, the inability of formerly temperature-sensitive tree growth to reflect high-frequency temperature signals in a warming world is indicated at some boreal sites, mainly in Alaska, the Yukon and Siberia. Here, we refer to both of these findings as the ‘divergence problem’ (DP), with their causes and scale being debated. If DP is widespread and the result of climatic forcing, the overall reliability of tree-ring-based temperature reconstructions should be questioned. Testing for DP benefits from well-replicated tree-ring and instrumental data spanning from the 19th to the 21st century. Here, we present a network of 124 larch and spruce sites across the European Alpine arc. Tree-ring width chronologies from 40 larch and 24 spruce sites were selected based on their correlation with early (1864–1933) instrumental temperatures to assess their ability of tracking recent (1934–2003) temperature variations. After the tree-ring series of both species were detrended in a manner that allows low-frequency variations to be preserved and scaled against summer temperatures, no unusual late 20th century DP is found. Independent tree-ring width and density evidence for unprecedented late 20th century temperatures with respect to the past millennium further reinforces our results.  相似文献   

19.
Tree functional traits together with processes such as forest regeneration, growth, and mortality affect forest and tree structure. Forest management inherently impacts these processes. Moreover, forest structure, biodiversity, resilience, and carbon uptake can be sustained and enhanced with forest management activities. To assess structural complexity of individual trees, comprehensive and quantitative measures are needed, and they are often lacking for current forest management practices. Here, we utilized 3D information from individual Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) trees obtained with terrestrial laser scanning to, first, assess effects of forest management on structural complexity of individual trees and, second, understand relationship between several tree attributes and structural complexity. We studied structural complexity of individual trees represented by a single scale‐independent metric called “box dimension.” This study aimed at identifying drivers affecting structural complexity of individual Scots pine trees in boreal forest conditions. The results showed that thinning increased structural complexity of individual Scots pine trees. Furthermore, we found a relationship between structural complexity and stem and crown size and shape as well as tree growth. Thus, it can be concluded that forest management affected structural complexity of individual Scots pine trees in managed boreal forests, and stem, crown, and growth attributes were identified as drivers of it.  相似文献   

20.
兴都库什喜马拉雅地区高海拔树木生长对气候变化的响应 高海拔地区快速升温可能导致树木对温度响应更为敏感,而限制高海拔地区树木生长的关键气候因子以及气候变化对树木生长产生多大程度的影响尚不清楚。本研究在兴都库什喜马拉雅地区收集了73 个样点的树轮数据,包括3个优势属的树种(Abies属、Juniperus属和Picea属),样点海拔均在3000 m以上。 将时间动态规整(dynamic time warping)的方法用于建立亚区域年表,以考虑不同站点年表之间变化的同步 性。同时,定量分析了气候因子对树木生长的贡献以及树木生长与气候因子关系的时空动态。研究结果发现,73个站点年表可以聚为3类,且与其所处的生物气候区相对应,即西喜马拉雅地区,中东喜马拉雅地区和藏东南地区。在干旱的西喜马拉雅地区,树木生长与冬、春两季的降水呈正相关关系,而在湿润的藏东南地区,树木生长与冬季温度和春季降水呈正相关关系。树木生长受最低温度的影响最大,特别是冬季温度,其重要性从西到东呈现递增趋势。滑动窗口相关分析表明,在中西喜马拉雅地区,影响树木生长的冬季温度信号在减弱,然而在藏东南地区该信号随着1980年以来的快速升温而增强。本研究结果表明,若该地区升温持续,在西喜马拉雅地区可能会因变暖引起的水分亏缺而造成森林衰退,而在藏东南地区因树木生长得益于变暖而使得森林扩张。  相似文献   

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