An interaction between climate change and infectious disease drove widespread amphibian declines

Climate change might drive species declines by altering species interactions, such as host–parasite interactions. However, few studies have combined experiments, field data, and historical climate records to provide evidence that an interaction between climate change and disease caused any host declines. A recently proposed hypothesis, the thermal mismatch hypothesis, could identify host species that are vulnerable to disease under climate change because it predicts that cool‐ and warm‐adapted hosts should be vulnerable to disease at unusually warm and cool temperatures, respectively. Here, we conduct experiments on Atelopus zeteki, a critically endangered, captively bred frog that prefers relatively cool temperatures, and show that frogs have high pathogen loads and high mortality rates only when exposed to a combination of the pathogenic chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) and high temperatures, as predicted by the thermal mismatch hypothesis. Further, we tested various hypotheses to explain recent declines experienced by species in the amphibian genus Atelopus that are thought to be associated with B. dendrobatidis and reveal that these declines are best explained by the thermal mismatch hypothesis. As in our experiments, only the combination of rapid increases in temperature and infectious disease could account for the patterns of declines, especially in species adapted to relatively cool environments. After combining experiments on declining hosts with spatiotemporal patterns in the field, our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that widespread species declines, including possible extinctions, have been driven by an interaction between increasing temperatures and infectious disease. Moreover, our findings suggest that hosts adapted to relatively cool conditions will be most vulnerable to the combination of increases in mean temperature and emerging infectious diseases.     

Impacts of climate warming and habitat loss on extinctions at species' low-latitude range boundaries

Polewards expansions of species' distributions have been attributed to climate warming, but evidence for climate‐driven local extinctions at warm (low latitude/elevation) boundaries is equivocal. We surveyed the four species of butterflies that reach their southern limits in Britain. We visited 421 sites where the species had been recorded previously to determine whether recent extinctions were primarily due to climate or habitat changes. Coenonympha tullia had become extinct at 52% of study sites and all losses were associated with habitat degradation. Aricia artaxerxes was extinct from 50% of sites, with approximately one‐third to half of extinctions associated with climate‐related factors and the remainder with habitat loss. For Erebia aethiops (extinct from 24% of sites), approximately a quarter of the extinctions were associated with habitat and three‐quarters with climate. For Erebia epiphron, extinctions (37% of sites) were attributed mainly to climate with almost no habitat effects. For the three species affected by climate, range boundaries retracted 70–100 km northwards (A. artaxerxes, E. aethiops) and 130–150 m uphill (E. epiphron) in the sample of sites analysed. These shifts are consistent with estimated latitudinal and elevational temperature shifts of 88 km northwards and 98 m uphill over the 19‐year study period. These results suggest that the southern/warm range margins of some species are as sensitive to climate change as are northern/cool margins. Our data indicate that climate warming has been of comparable importance to habitat loss in driving local extinctions of northern species over the past few decades; future climate warming is likely to jeopardize the long‐term survival of many northern and mountain species.     

Altitudinal distribution of chytrid (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) infection in subtropical Australian frogs

The disappearance of amphibian populations from seemingly pristine upland areas worldwide has become a major focus of conservation efforts in the last two decades, and a parasitic chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, is thought to be the causative agent of the population declines. We examined the altitudinal distribution of chytrid infections in three stream‐dwelling frog species (Litoria wilcoxii, L. pearsoniana and L. chloris) in southeast Queensland, Australia, and hypothesized that if B. dendrobatidis were responsible for the disappearance of high‐altitude frog populations, infection prevalence and intensity would be greatest at higher altitudes. Overall, 37.7% of the 798 adult frogs we sampled were infected with B. dendrobatidis, and infections were found in all the populations we examined. Contrary to our initial hypothesis, we found no consistent evidence that high‐altitude frogs were more likely to be infected than were lowland frogs. Further, the intensity of fungal infections (number of zoospores) on high‐altitude frogs did not differ significantly from that of lowland frogs. Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis appears to be capable of infecting frogs at all altitudes in the subtropics, suggesting that all populations are at risk of decline when conditions favour disease outbreaks. We did find evidence, however, that chytrid infections persist longer into summer in upland as compared with lowland areas, suggesting that montane amphibian populations remain susceptible to disease outbreaks for longer periods than do lowland populations. Further, we found that at high altitudes, temperatures optimal for chytrid growth and reproduction coincide with frog metamorphosis, the life‐stage at which frogs are most susceptible to chytrid infections. While these altitudinal differences may account for the differential population‐level responses to the presence of B. dendrobatidis, the reason why many of southeast Queensland's montane frog populations declined precipitously while lowland populations remained stable has yet to be resolved.     

Host‐specific thermal profiles affect fitness of a widespread pathogen

Host behavior can interact with environmental context to influence outcomes of pathogen exposure and the impact of disease on species and populations. Determining whether the thermal behaviors of individual species influence susceptibility to disease can help enhance our ability to explain and predict how and when disease outbreaks are likely to occur. The widespread disease chytridiomycosis (caused by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Bd) often has species‐specific impacts on amphibian communities; some host species are asymptomatic, whereas others experience mass mortalities and population extirpation. We determined whether the average natural thermal regimes experienced by sympatric frog species in nature, in and of themselves, can account for differences in vulnerability to disease. We did this by growing Bd under temperatures mimicking those experienced by frogs in the wild. At low and high elevations, the rainforest frogs Litoria nannotis, L. rheocola, and L. serrata maintained mean thermal regimes within the optimal range for pathogen growth (15–25°C). Thermal regimes for L. serrata, which has recovered from Bd‐related declines, resulted in slower pathogen growth than the cooler and less variable thermal regimes for the other two species, which have experienced more long‐lasting declines. For L. rheocola and L. serrata, pathogen growth was faster in thermal regimes corresponding to high elevations than in those corresponding to low elevations, where temperatures were warmer. For L. nannotis, which prefers moist and thermally stable microenvironments, pathogen growth was fastest for low‐elevation thermal regimes. All of the thermal regimes we tested resulted in pathogen growth rates equivalent to, or significantly faster than, rates expected from constant‐temperature experiments. The effects of host body temperature on Bd can explain many of the broad ecological patterns of population declines in our focal species, via direct effects on pathogen fitness. Understanding the functional response of pathogens to conditions experienced by the host is important for determining the ecological drivers of disease outbreaks.     

Pathogen pollution and the emergence of a deadly amphibian pathogen

Imagine a single pathogen that is responsible for mass mortality of over a third of an entire vertebrate class. For example, if a single pathogen were causing the death, decline and extinction of 30% of mammal species (including humans), the entire world would be paying attention. This is what has been happening to the world's amphibians – the frogs, toads and salamanders that are affected by the chytrid fungal pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (referred to as Bd), which are consequently declining at an alarming rate. It has aptly been described as the worst pathogen in history in terms of its effects on biodiversity (Kilpatrick et al. 2010). The pathogen was only formally described about 13 years ago (Longcore et al. 1999), and scientists are still in the process of determining where it came from and investigating the question: why now? Healthy debate has ensued as to whether Bd is a globally endemic organism that only recently started causing high mortality due to shifting host responses and/or environmental change (e.g. Pounds et al. 2006) or whether a virulent strain of the pathogen has rapidly disseminated around the world in recent decades, affecting new regions with a vengeance (e.g. Morehouse et al. 2003; Weldon et al. 2004; Lips et al. 2008). We are finally beginning to shed more light on this question, due to significant discoveries that have emerged as a result of intensive DNA‐sequencing methods comparing Bd isolates from different amphibian species across the globe. Evidence is mounting that there is indeed a global panzootic lineage of Bd (BdGPL) in addition to what appear to be more localized endemic strains (Fisher et al. 2009; James et al. 2009; Farrer et al. 2011). Additionally, BdGPL appears to be a hypervirulent strain that has resulted from the hybridization of different Bd strains that came into contact in recent decades, and is now potentially replacing the less‐virulent endemic strains of the pathogen (Farrer et al. 2011). In a new study published in this issue of Molecular Ecology, Schloegel et al. (2012) identify an additional unique Bd lineage that is endemic to the Atlantic Brazilian rainforests (Bd‐Brazil) and provide striking evidence that the Bd‐Brazil lineage has sexually recombined with the BdGPL lineage in an area where the two lineages likely came into contact as a result of classic anthropogenically mediated ‘pathogen pollution’(see below). Fungal pathogens, including Bd, have the propensity to form recombinant lineages when allopatric populations that have not yet formed genetic reproductive barriers are provided with opportunities to intermingle, and virulent strains may be selected for because they tend to be highly transmissible (Fisher et al. 2012). As Schloegel et al. (2012) point out, the demonstrated ability for Bd to undergo meiosis may also mean that it has the capacity to form a resistant spore stage (as yet undiscovered), based on extrapolation from other sexually reproducing chytrids that all have spore stages.     

Spatial and temporal heterogeneity in climate change limits species' dispersal capabilities and adaptive potential

Global climate change has already caused local declines and extinctions. These losses are generally thought to occur because climate change is progressing too rapidly for populations to keep pace. Based on this hypothesis, numerous predictive frameworks have been developed to project future range shifts and changes in population dynamics resulting from global climate change. However, recent empirical work has demonstrated that seasonally asynchronous climate change regimes – when a region is warming during some parts of the year, but cooling in others – are constraining species' responses to climate change more strongly than rapid warming, leading to intra‐specific variation in responses to climate change and local population declines. Here, we couple a review of the literature related to asynchronous climate change regimes with meta‐population simulations and an analysis of long‐term North American climate trends to show that seasonally asynchronous regimes are occurring throughout most of North America and that their current spatial distribution may be a strong barrier to dispersal and gene flow across many species' ranges. Thus, even though adaptation to climate change may potentially be more common and rapid than previously thought, species whose ranges overlap with asynchronous regimes will likely succumb to local declines that may be difficult to mitigate via dispersal. Future climate‐related predictive frameworks should therefore incorporate asynchronous regimes as well as more traditional measures of climate velocity in order to fully capture the array of potential future climate change scenarios.     

Reduced skin bacterial diversity correlates with increased pathogen infection intensity in an endangered amphibian host

The fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) infects the skin of amphibians and has caused severe declines and extinctions of amphibians globally. In this study, we investigate the interaction between Bd and the bacterial skin microbiome of the endangered Sierra Nevada yellow‐legged frog, Rana sierrae, using both culture‐dependent and culture‐independent methods. Samples were collected from two populations of R. sierrae that likely underwent Bd epizootics in the past, but that continue to persist with Bd in an enzootic disease state, and we address the hypothesis that such “persistent” populations are aided by mutualistic skin microbes. Our 16S rRNA metabarcoding data reveal that the skin microbiome of highly infected juvenile frogs is characterized by significantly reduced species richness and evenness, and by strikingly lower variation between individuals, compared to juveniles and adults with lower infection levels. Over 90% of DNA sequences from the skin microbiome of highly infected frogs were derived from bacteria in a single order, Burkholderiales, compared to just 54% in frogs with lower infection levels. In a culture‐dependent Bd inhibition assay, the bacterial metabolites we evaluated all inhibited the growth of Bd. Together, these results illustrate the disruptive effects of Bd infection on host skin microbial community structure and dynamics, and suggest possible avenues for the development of anti‐Bd probiotic treatments.     

Can amphibians take the heat? Vulnerability to climate warming in subtropical and temperate larval amphibian communities

Predicting the biodiversity impacts of global warming implies that we know where and with what magnitude these impacts will be encountered. Amphibians are currently the most threatened vertebrates, mainly due to habitat loss and to emerging infectious diseases. Global warming may further exacerbate their decline in the near future, although the impact might vary geographically. We predicted that subtropical amphibians should be relatively susceptible to warming‐induced extinctions because their upper critical thermal limits (CT_max) might be only slightly higher than maximum pond temperatures (T_max). We tested this prediction by measuring CT_max and T_max for 47 larval amphibian species from two thermally distinct subtropical communities (the warm community of the Gran Chaco and the cool community of Atlantic Forest, northern Argentina), as well as from one European temperate community. Upper thermal tolerances of tadpoles were positively correlated (controlling for phylogeny) with maximum pond temperatures, although the slope was steeper in subtropical than in temperate species. CT_max values were lowest in temperate species and highest in the subtropical warm community, which paradoxically, had very low warming tolerance (CT_max–T_max) and therefore may be prone to future local extinction from acute thermal stress if rising pond T_max soon exceeds their CT_max. Canopy‐protected subtropical cool species have larger warming tolerance and thus should be less impacted by peak temperatures. Temperate species are relatively secure to warming impacts, except for late breeders with low thermal tolerance, which may be exposed to physiological thermal stress in the coming years.     

Cold range edges of marine fishes track climate change better than warm edges

Species around the world are shifting their ranges in response to climate change. To make robust predictions about climate‐related colonizations and extinctions, it is vital to understand the dynamics of range edges. This study is among the first to examine annual dynamics of cold and warm range edges, as most global change studies average observational data over space or over time. We analyzed annual range edge dynamics of marine fishes—both at the individual species level and pooled into cold‐ and warm‐edge assemblages—in a multi‐decade time‐series of trawl surveys conducted on the Northeast US Shelf during a period of rapid warming. We tested whether cold edges show stronger evidence of climate tracking than warm edges (due to non‐climate processes or time lags at the warm edge; the biogeography hypothesis or extinction debt hypothesis), or whether they tracked temperature change equally (due to the influence of habitat suitability; the ecophysiology hypothesis). In addition to exploring correlations with regional temperature change, we calculated species‐ and assemblage‐specific sea bottom and sea surface temperature isotherms and used them to predict range edge position. Cold edges shifted further and tracked sea surface and bottom temperature isotherms to a greater degree than warm edges. Mixed‐effects models revealed that for a one‐degree latitude shift in isotherm position, cold edges shifted 0.47 degrees of latitude, and warm edges shifted only 0.28 degrees. Our results suggest that cold range edges are tracking climate change better than warm range edges, invalidating the ecophysiology hypothesis. We also found that even among highly mobile marine ectotherms in a global warming hotspot, few species are fully keeping pace with climate.     

Organism activity levels predict marine invertebrate survival during ancient global change extinctions

Multistressor global change, the combined influence of ocean warming, acidification, and deoxygenation, poses a serious threat to marine organisms. Experimental studies imply that organisms with higher levels of activity should be more resilient, but testing this prediction and understanding organism vulnerability at a global scale, over evolutionary timescales, and in natural ecosystems remain challenging. The fossil record, which contains multiple extinctions triggered by multistressor global change, is ideally suited for testing hypotheses at broad geographic, taxonomic, and temporal scales. Here, I assess the importance of activity level for survival of well‐skeletonized benthic marine invertebrates over a 100‐million‐year‐long interval (Permian to Jurassic periods) containing four global change extinctions, including the end‐Permian and end‐Triassic mass extinctions. More active organisms, based on a semiquantitative score incorporating feeding and motility, were significantly more likely to survive during three of the four extinction events (Guadalupian, end‐Permian, and end‐Triassic). In contrast, activity was not an important control on survival during nonextinction intervals. Both the end‐Permian and end‐Triassic mass extinctions also triggered abrupt shifts to increased dominance by more active organisms. Although mean activity gradually returned toward pre‐extinction values, the net result was a permanent ratcheting of ecosystem‐wide activity to higher levels. Selectivity patterns during ancient global change extinctions confirm the hypothesis that higher activity, a proxy for respiratory physiology, is a fundamental control on survival, although the roles of specific physiological traits (such as extracellular pCO₂ or aerobic scope) cannot be distinguished. Modern marine ecosystems are dominated by more active organisms, in part because of selectivity ratcheting during these ancient extinctions, so on average may be less vulnerable to global change stressors than ancient counterparts. However, ancient extinctions demonstrate that even active organisms can suffer major extinction when the intensity of environmental disruption is intense.     

Geochemical signatures of benthic foraminiferal shells from a heat‐polluted shallow marine environment provide field evidence for growth and calcification under extreme warmth

Shallow marine calcifiers play an important role as marine ecosystem engineers and in the global carbon cycle. Understanding their response to warming is essential to evaluate the fate of marine ecosystems under global change scenarios. A rare opportunity to test the effect of warming acting on natural ecosystems is by investigation of heat‐polluted areas. Here, we study growth and calcification in benthic foraminifera that inhabit a thermally polluted coastal area in Israel, where they are exposed to elevated temperatures reaching up to ~42°C in summer. Live specimens of two known heat‐tolerant species Lachlanella sp. 1 and Pararotalia calcariformata were collected over a period of 1 year from two stations, representing thermally polluted and undisturbed (control) shallow hard bottom habitats. Single‐chamber element ratios of these specimens were obtained using laser ablation, and the Mg/Ca of the most recently grown final chambers were used to calculate their calcification temperatures. Our results provide the first direct field evidence that these foraminifera species not only persist at extreme warm temperatures but continue to calcify and grow. Species‐specific Mg/Ca thermometry indicates that P. calcariformata precipitate their shells at temperatures as high as 40°C and Lachlanella sp. 1 at least up to 36°C, but both species show a threshold for calcification at cold temperatures: calcification in P. calcariformata only occurred above 22°C and in Lachlanella sp. 1 above 15°C. Our observations from the heat‐polluted area indicate that under future warming scenarios, calcification in heat‐tolerant foraminifera species will not be inhibited during summer, but instead the temperature window for their calcification will be expanded throughout much of the year. The observed inhibition of calcification at low temperatures indicates that the role of heat‐tolerant foraminifera in carbonate production will most likely increase in future decades.     

Temporal Variation in Infection Prevalence by the Amphibian Chytrid Fungus in Three Species of Frogs at La Selva,Costa Rica

The emerging infectious disease chytridiomycosis, caused by the amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), is implicated in widespread population declines, extirpations, and extinctions of amphibians throughout the world. In the Neotropics, most amphibian declines have occurred in cool mid‐ to high‐elevation sites (> 400 m asl), and it is hypothesized that high temperatures limit the growth of Bd in lowland tropical sites, despite few data available on the distribution of Bd in lowland forests. Here, we report the results of a 12‐mo pathogen surveillance program for three common species of frogs at a warm lowland site in northeastern Costa Rica. We combine standard non‐invasive skin swabbing techniques with a quantitative polymerase chain reaction assay to analyze the infection prevalence and Bd load across a 1‐yr period. Our data indicate an overall Bd infection rate of 6.1 percent, but prevalence varies from < 5 percent in warmer months to a peak of 34.7 percent in the coolest months of the year. Despite very little seasonal variation in temperature (< 4°C), our data indicate strong seasonal variation in the prevalence of Bd, with highest prevalence of infection in months with coolest air temperatures. While it has been suggested that Bd is primarily a riparian fungus, we find no difference in prevalence of infection among our species despite considerable differences in affiliation of these species with water. Our study provides further evidence that infection by Bd is regulated by temperature and shows that warm temperatures in lowland forests may restrict, but not prevent, infection by Bd.     

Habitat loss, resource specialization, and extinction on coral reefs

Coral reefs worldwide are being degraded because of global warming (coral bleaching) and coastal development (sedimentation and eutrophication). Predicting the risk of species extinctions from this type of habitat degradation is one of the most challenging and urgent tasks facing ecologists. Habitat specialists are thought to be more prone to extinction than generalists; however, specialists may be more susceptible to extinction because (1) they are specialists per se, (2) they are less abundant than generalists, or (3) both. Here, I show that declines in coral abundance lead to corresponding declines in the abundance of coral‐dwelling fishes, but with proportionally greater losses to specialists than generalists. In addition, specialists have smaller initial population sizes than generalists. Consequently, specialists face a dual risk of extinction because their already small populations decline more rapidly than those of generalists. Corresponding with this increased extinction risk, I describe the local extinction of one specialist species and the near‐global extinction of another species. I conclude that habitat specialists will be the first species lost from coral reefs because their small populations suffer the most from human‐induced disturbances.     

Activity restriction and the mechanistic basis for extinctions under climate warming

Correlative analyses predict that anthropogenic climate warming will cause widespread extinction but the nature and generality of the underlying mechanisms is unclear. Warming‐induced activity restriction has been proposed as a general explanatory mechanism for recent population extinctions in lizards, and has been used to forecast future extinction. Here, I test this hypothesis using globally applied biophysical calculations of the effects of warming and shade reduction on potential activity time and whole‐life‐cycle energy budgets. These ‘thermodynamic niche’ analyses show that activity restriction from climate warming is unlikely to provide a general explanation of recent extinctions, and that loss of shade is viable alternative explanation. Climate warming could cause population declines, even under increased activity potential, through joint impacts on fecundity and mortality rates. However, such responses depend strongly on behaviour, habitat (shade, food) and life history, all of which should be explicitly incorporated in mechanistic forecasts of extinction risk under climate change.     

Changes in Soil Fungal Communities, Extracellular Enzyme Activities, and Litter Decomposition Across a Fire Chronosequence in Alaskan Boreal Forests

Wildfires are a pervasive disturbance in boreal forests, and the frequency and intensity of boreal wildfires is expected to increase with climate warming. Boreal forests store a large fraction of global soil organic carbon (C), but relatively few studies have documented how wildfires affect soil microbial communities and soil C dynamics. We used a fire chronosequence in upland boreal forests of interior Alaska with sites that were 1, 7, 12, 24, 55, ~90, and ~100 years post-fire to examine the short- and long-term responses of fungal community composition, fungal abundance, extracellular enzyme activity, and litter decomposition to wildfires. We hypothesized that post-fire changes in fungal abundance and community composition would constrain decomposition following fires. We found that wildfires altered the composition of soil fungal communities. The relative abundance of ascomycetes significantly increased following fire whereas basidiomycetes decreased. Post-fire decreases in basidiomycete fungi were likely attributable to declines in ectomycorrhizal fungi. Fungal hyphal lengths in the organic horizon significantly declined in response to wildfire, and they required at least 24 years to return to pre-fire levels. Post-fire reductions in fungal hyphal length were associated with decreased activities of hydrolytic extracellular enzymes. In support of our hypothesis, the decomposition rate of aspen and black spruce litter significantly increased as forests recovered from fire. Our results indicate that post-fire reductions in soil fungal abundance and activity likely inhibit litter decomposition following boreal wildfires. Slower rates of litter decay may lead to decreased heterotrophic respiration from soil following fires and contribute to a negative feedback to climate warming.     

Will a warmer and wetter future cause extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds?

Isolation of the Hawaiian archipelago produced a highly endemic and unique avifauna. Avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum), an introduced mosquito‐borne pathogen, is a primary cause of extinctions and declines of these endemic honeycreepers. Our research assesses how global climate change will affect future malaria risk and native bird populations. We used an epidemiological model to evaluate future bird–mosquito–malaria dynamics in response to alternative climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Climate changes during the second half of the century accelerate malaria transmission and cause a dramatic decline in bird abundance. Different temperature and precipitation patterns produce divergent trajectories where native birds persist with low malaria infection under a warmer and dryer projection (RCP4.5), but suffer high malaria infection and severe reductions under hot and dry (RCP8.5) or warm and wet (A1B) futures. We conclude that future global climate change will cause significant decreases in the abundance and diversity of remaining Hawaiian bird communities. Because these effects appear unlikely before mid‐century, natural resource managers have time to implement conservation strategies to protect this unique avifauna from further decimation. Similar climatic drivers for avian and human malaria suggest that mitigation strategies for Hawai'i have broad application to human health.     

Correlates of virulence in a frog-killing fungal pathogen: evidence from a California amphibian decline

The fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has caused declines and extinctions in amphibians worldwide, and there is increasing evidence that some strains of this pathogen are more virulent than others. While a number of putative virulence factors have been identified, few studies link these factors to specific epizootic events. We documented a dramatic decline in juvenile frogs in a Bd-infected population of Cascades frogs (Rana cascadae) in the mountains of northern California and used a laboratory experiment to show that Bd isolated in the midst of this decline induced higher mortality than Bd isolated from a more stable population of the same species of frog. This highly virulent Bd isolate was more toxic to immune cells and attained higher density in liquid culture than comparable isolates. Genomic analyses revealed that this isolate is nested within the global panzootic lineage and exhibited unusual genomic patterns, including increased copy numbers of many chromosomal segments. This study integrates data from multiple sources to suggest specific phenotypic and genomic characteristics of the pathogen that may be linked to disease-related declines.     

Trade‐offs and evolution of thermal adaptation in the Irish potato famine pathogen Phytophthora infestans

Temperature is one of the most important environmental parameters with crucial impacts on nearly all biological processes. Due to anthropogenic activity, average air temperatures are expected to increase by a few degrees in coming decades, accompanied by an increased occurrence of extreme temperature events. Such global trends are likely to have various major impacts on human society through their influence on natural ecosystems, food production and biotic interactions, including diseases. In this study, we used a combination of statistical genetics, experimental evolution and common garden experiments to investigate the evolutionary potential for thermal adaptation in the potato late blight pathogen, Phytophthora infestans, and infer its likely response to changing temperatures. We found a trade‐off associated with thermal adaptation to heterogeneous environments in P. infestans, with the degree of the trade‐off peaking approximately at the pathogen's optimum growth temperature. A genetic trade‐off in thermal adaptation was also evidenced by the negative association between a strain's growth rate and its thermal range for growth, and warm climates selecting for a low pathogen growth rate. We also found a mirror effect of phenotypic plasticity and genetic adaptation on growth rate. At below the optimum, phenotypic plasticity enhances pathogen's growth rate but nature selects for slower growing genotypes when temperature increases. At above the optimum, phenotypic plasticity reduces pathogen's growth rate but natural selection favours for faster growing genotypes when temperature increases further. We conclude from these findings that the growth rate of P. infestans will only be marginally affected by global warming.     

Modelling the potential distribution of endangered Prunus africana (Hook.f.) Kalkm. in East Africa

Continued harvesting and climate change are affecting the distributions of many plant species and may lead to numerous extinctions over the next century. Endangered species are likely to be a special concern, but the extent to which they are sensitive to climate is currently unclear. Species distribution modelling, if carefully implemented, can be used to assess climate sensitivity and potential climate change impacts, of tree species. We used MaxEnt algorithm for species distribution modelling to assess the potential distribution and climate change risks for a threatened Prunus africana, in East Africa. Data from different herbaria on its distribution were linked to data on climate to test hypotheses on the factors determining its distribution. Predictive models were developed and projected onto a climate scenario for 2050 to assess climate change risks. Precipitation of driest quarter and annual precipitation appeared to be the main factors influencing its distribution. Climate change was predicted to result in reductions of the species' habitats (e.g. Erasmus et al., Glob. Change Biol. 2002; 8 : 679). Prunus africana distribution is thus highly vulnerable to a warming climate and highlights the fact that both in‐situ and ex‐situ conservation will be a solution to global warming.