Can amphibians take the heat? Vulnerability to climate warming in subtropical and temperate larval amphibian communities

Predicting the biodiversity impacts of global warming implies that we know where and with what magnitude these impacts will be encountered. Amphibians are currently the most threatened vertebrates, mainly due to habitat loss and to emerging infectious diseases. Global warming may further exacerbate their decline in the near future, although the impact might vary geographically. We predicted that subtropical amphibians should be relatively susceptible to warming‐induced extinctions because their upper critical thermal limits (CT_max) might be only slightly higher than maximum pond temperatures (T_max). We tested this prediction by measuring CT_max and T_max for 47 larval amphibian species from two thermally distinct subtropical communities (the warm community of the Gran Chaco and the cool community of Atlantic Forest, northern Argentina), as well as from one European temperate community. Upper thermal tolerances of tadpoles were positively correlated (controlling for phylogeny) with maximum pond temperatures, although the slope was steeper in subtropical than in temperate species. CT_max values were lowest in temperate species and highest in the subtropical warm community, which paradoxically, had very low warming tolerance (CT_max–T_max) and therefore may be prone to future local extinction from acute thermal stress if rising pond T_max soon exceeds their CT_max. Canopy‐protected subtropical cool species have larger warming tolerance and thus should be less impacted by peak temperatures. Temperate species are relatively secure to warming impacts, except for late breeders with low thermal tolerance, which may be exposed to physiological thermal stress in the coming years.     

Potential decoupling of trends in distribution area and population size of species with climate change

Global climates are changing rapidly and biological responses are becoming increasingly apparent. Here, we use empirical abundance patterns across an altitudinal gradient and predicted altitudinal range shifts to estimate change in total population size relative to distribution area in response to climate warming. Adopting this approach we predict that, for nine out of 12 species of regionally endemic birds, total population size will decline more rapidly than distribution area with increasing temperature. Two species showed comparable loss and one species exhibited a slower decline in population size with change in distribution area. Population size change relative to distribution area was greatest for those species that occurred at highest density in the middle of the gradient. The disproportional loss in population size reported here suggests that extinction risk associated with climate change can be more severe than that expected from decline in distribution area alone. Therefore, if we are to make accurate predictions of the impacts of climate change on the conservation status of individual species, it is crucial that we consider the spatial patterns of abundance within the distribution and not just the overall range of the species.     

All hosts are not equal: explaining differential patterns of malformations in an amphibian community

1. Within a community, different host species often exhibit broad variation in sensitivity to infection and disease. Because such differences can influence the strength and outcome of community interactions, it is essential to understand differential disease patterns and identify the mechanisms responsible. 2. In North American wetlands, amphibian species often exhibit extraordinary differences in the frequency of limb malformations induced by the digenetic trematode, Ribeiroia ondatrae. By coupling field studies with parasite exposure experiments, we evaluated whether such patterns were due to differences in (i) parasite encounter rate, (ii) infection establishment, or (iii) parasite persistence within hosts. 3. Field results underscored the broad variation in malformations and infection between host species; while nearly 60% (n = 618) of emerging American toads exhibited severe limb deformities such as bony triangles, skin webbings and missing limbs, fewer than 4% (n = 251) of Eastern gray treefrogs from the same pond were abnormal. Despite similarities in the phenology and larval development period of these species, they differed sharply in Ribeiroia infection. On average, toads supported 75x more metacercariae than did metamorphic treefrogs. 4. Experimental exposures of larval toads and treefrogs to a realistic range of Ribeiroia cercariae revealed strong differences in the sensitivity of these species to infection; exposed toads suffered elevated mortality (up to 95%), delayed metamorphosis, and severe limb malformations consistent with field observations. Treefrogs, in contrast, exhibited limited mortality and no malformations, regardless of exposure level. Ribeiroia cercariae were substantially less successful in locating and infecting Hyla versicolor larvae. 5. Our results indicate that the observed differences in infection and malformations owe to a lower ability of Ribeiroia cercariae to both find and establish within larval treefrogs, possibly stemming from a heightened immune response to infection. Because Ribeiroia is a highly pathogenic parasite with negative effects on larval and metamorphic amphibian survival, variation in infection resistance among species could have important implications for understanding patterns of species co-occurrence, competition, and community diversity.     

How does climate change cause extinction?

Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to be a major cause of species extinctions in the next 100 years. But what will actually cause these extinctions? For example, will it be limited physiological tolerance to high temperatures, changing biotic interactions or other factors? Here, we systematically review the proximate causes of climate-change related extinctions and their empirical support. We find 136 case studies of climatic impacts that are potentially relevant to this topic. However, only seven identified proximate causes of demonstrated local extinctions due to anthropogenic climate change. Among these seven studies, the proximate causes vary widely. Surprisingly, none show a straightforward relationship between local extinction and limited tolerances to high temperature. Instead, many studies implicate species interactions as an important proximate cause, especially decreases in food availability. We find very similar patterns in studies showing decreases in abundance associated with climate change, and in those studies showing impacts of climatic oscillations. Collectively, these results highlight our disturbingly limited knowledge of this crucial issue but also support the idea that changing species interactions are an important cause of documented population declines and extinctions related to climate change. Finally, we briefly outline general research strategies for identifying these proximate causes in future studies.