Multiple stressors on biotic interactions: how climate change and alien species interact to affect pollination

Global change may substantially affect biodiversity and ecosystem functioning but little is known about its effects on essential biotic interactions. Since different environmental drivers rarely act in isolation it is important to consider interactive effects. Here, we focus on how two key drivers of anthropogenic environmental change, climate change and the introduction of alien species, affect plant–pollinator interactions. Based on a literature survey we identify climatically sensitive aspects of species interactions, assess potential effects of climate change on these mechanisms, and derive hypotheses that may form the basis of future research. We find that both climate change and alien species will ultimately lead to the creation of novel communities. In these communities certain interactions may no longer occur while there will also be potential for the emergence of new relationships. Alien species can both partly compensate for the often negative effects of climate change but also amplify them in some cases. Since potential positive effects are often restricted to generalist interactions among species, climate change and alien species in combination can result in significant threats to more specialist interactions involving native species.     

Interactive effects of habitat modification and species invasion on native species decline

Different components of global environmental change are often studied and managed independently, but mounting evidence points towards complex non-additive interaction effects between drivers of native species decline. Using the example of interactions between land-use change and biotic exchange, we develop an interpretive framework that will enable global change researchers to identify and discriminate between major interaction pathways. We formalise a distinction between numerically mediated versus functionally moderated causal pathways. Despite superficial similarity of their effects, numerical and functional pathways stem from fundamentally different mechanisms of action and have fundamentally different consequences for conservation management. Our framework is a first step toward building a better quantitative understanding of how interactions between drivers might mitigate or exacerbate the net effects of global environmental change on biotic communities in the future.     

Variation in the impact of non‐native seaweeds along gradients of habitat degradation: a meta‐analysis and an experimental test

Biological invasions are acknowledged among the main drivers of global changes in biodiversity. Despite compelling evidence of species interactions being strongly regulated by environmental conditions, there is a dearth of studies investigating how the effects of non‐native species vary among areas exposed to different anthropogenic pressures. Focusing on marine macroalgae, we performed a meta‐analysis to test whether and how the direction and magnitude of their effects on resident communities and species varies in relation to cumulative anthropogenic impact levels. The relationship between human impact levels and non‐native species impact intensity emerged only for a reduced subset of the response variables examined. Yet, there was a trend for the effects of non‐native species on community biomass and abundance and on species abundance to become less negative at heavily impacted sites. By contrast, the magnitude of negative effects of seaweed on community evenness tended to increase with human impact levels. The hypothesis of decreasing severity of invader’ impacts along a gradient of habitat degradation was also tested experimentally at a regional scale by comparing the effects of the removal of non‐native alga, Caulerpa cylindracea, on resident assemblages among rocky reefs exposed to different anthropogenic pressures. Assemblages at urban and pristine site did not differ when invaded, but did so when C. cylindracea was removed. Our results suggest that, despite the generally weak relationship between human impacts levels and non‐native species impacts, more negative impacts can be expected in less stressful environments (i.e. less degraded or pristine sites), where competitive interactions are presumably the driving force structuring resident communities. Implementing strategies for controlling the establishment of non‐native seaweeds should be, thus, considered a priority for preserving biodiversity in relatively pristine areas. On the other hand, control of invaders at degraded sites could be warranted to lessen their role as propagule sources. Synthesis Local anthropogenic stressors that severely alter biotic and abiotic conditions may underpin context‐dependency in the impacts of biological invasions. We used a meta‐analysis and an experimental test to examine the relationship between cumulative human impacts and ecological impact of non‐native seaweeds on resident assemblages. Our results suggest that more negative impacts of non‐native seaweeds on the abundance and biomass of resident assemblages can be expected in less degraded or pristine sites. Possibly, stronger impacts prevail at pristine sites, where assemblages are mainly structured by biotic interactions. Hence, management efforts should be mostly directed to prevent the establishment and spread of non‐native seaweeds in pristine areas. On the other hand, weak, but positive effects of seaweeds at the most degraded sites add to the ongoing debate on the role of non‐native species in rehabilitation plans.     

Separating direct and indirect effects of global change: a population dynamic modeling approach using readily available field data

Two sources of complexity make predicting plant community response to global change particularly challenging. First, realistic global change scenarios involve multiple drivers of environmental change that can interact with one another to produce non‐additive effects. Second, in addition to these direct effects, global change drivers can indirectly affect plants by modifying species interactions. In order to tackle both of these challenges, we propose a novel population modeling approach, requiring only measurements of abundance and climate over time. To demonstrate the applicability of this approach, we model population dynamics of eight abundant plant species in a multifactorial global change experiment in alpine tundra where we manipulated nitrogen, precipitation, and temperature over 7 years. We test whether indirect and interactive effects are important to population dynamics and whether explicitly incorporating species interactions can change predictions when models are forecast under future climate change scenarios. For three of the eight species, population dynamics were best explained by direct effect models, for one species neither direct nor indirect effects were important, and for the other four species indirect effects mattered. Overall, global change had negative effects on species population growth, although species responded to different global change drivers, and single‐factor effects were slightly more common than interactive direct effects. When the fitted population dynamic models were extrapolated under changing climatic conditions to the end of the century, forecasts of community dynamics and diversity loss were largely similar using direct effect models that do not explicitly incorporate species interactions or best‐fit models; however, inclusion of species interactions was important in refining the predictions for two of the species. The modeling approach proposed here is a powerful way of analyzing readily available datasets which should be added to our toolbox to tease apart complex drivers of global change.     

Untangling interactions: do temperature and habitat fragmentation gradients simultaneously impact biotic relationships?

Gaining insight into the impact of anthropogenic change on ecosystems requires investigation into interdependencies between multiple drivers of ecological change and multiple biotic responses. Global environmental change drivers can act simultaneously to impact the abundance and diversity of biota, but few studies have also measured the impact across trophic levels. We firstly investigated whether climate (using temperature differences across a latitudinal gradient as a surrogate) interacts with habitat fragmentation (measured according to fragment area and distance to habitat edges) to impact a New Zealand tri-trophic food chain (plant, herbivore and natural enemy). Secondly, we examined how these interactions might differentially impact both the density and biotic processes of species at each of the three trophic levels. We found evidence to suggest that these drivers act non-additively across trophic levels. The nature of these interactions however varied: location synergistically interacted with fragmentation measures to exacerbate the detrimental effects on consumer density; and antagonistically interacted to ameliorate the impact on plant density and on the interactions between trophic levels (herbivory and parasitoid attack rate). Our findings indicate that the ecological consequences of multiple global change drivers are strongly interactive and vary according to the trophic level studied and whether density or ecological processes are investigated.     

Temperature‐size responses alter food chain persistence across environmental gradients

Body‐size reduction is a ubiquitous response to global warming alongside changes in species phenology and distributions. However, ecological consequences of temperature‐size (TS) responses for community persistence under environmental change remain largely unexplored. Here, we investigated the interactive effects of warming, enrichment, community size structure and TS responses on a three‐species food chain using a temperature‐dependent model with empirical parameterisation. We found that TS responses often increase community persistence, mainly by modifying consumer‐resource size ratios and thereby altering interaction strengths and energetic efficiencies. However, the sign and magnitude of these effects vary with warming and enrichment levels, TS responses of constituent species, and community size structure. We predict that the consequences of TS responses are stronger in aquatic than in terrestrial ecosystems, especially when species show different TS responses. We conclude that considering the links between phenotypic plasticity, environmental drivers and species interactions is crucial to better predict global change impacts on ecosystem diversity and stability.     

Microhabitat amelioration and reduced competition among understorey plants as drivers of facilitation across environmental gradients: Towards a unifying framework

Studies of facilitative interactions as drivers of plant richness along environmental gradients often assume the existence of an overarching stress gradient that equally affects the performance of all the species in a given community. However, co-existing species differ in their ecophysiological adaptations, and do not experience the same stress level under particular environmental conditions. Moreover, these studies assume a unimodal relationship between richness and biomass, which is not as general as previously thought. We ignored these assumptions to assess changes in plant–plant interactions and their effect on local species richness across environmental gradients in semi-arid areas of Spain and Australia. We aimed to understand the relative importance of direct (microhabitat amelioration) and indirect (changes in the competitive relationships among the understorey species: niche segregation, competitive exclusion or intransitivity) mechanisms that might underlie the effects of nurse plants on local species richness. By jointly studying these direct and indirect mechanisms using a unifying framework, we found that nurse plants (trees, shrubs and tussock grasses) increased local richness not only by expanding the niche of neighbouring species but also by increasing niche segregation among them, though the latter was not important in all cases. The outcome of the competition-facilitation continuum varied depending on the study area, likely because the different types of stress gradient considered. When driven by both rainfall and temperature, or rainfall alone, the community-wide importance of nurse plants remained constant (Spanish sites), or showed a unimodal relationship along the gradient (Australian sites). This study expands our understanding of the relative roles of plant–plant interactions and environmental conditions as drivers of local species richness in semi-arid environments. The results can also be used to refine predictions about the response of plant communities to environmental change, and to clarify the relative importance of biotic interactions as drivers of such responses.     

Flowering time and elevated atmospheric CO2

Flowering is a critical milestone in the life cycle of plants, and changes in the timing of flowering may alter processes at the species, community and ecosystem levels. Therefore understanding flowering-time responses to global change drivers, such as elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, [CO(2)], is necessary to predict the impacts of global change on natural and agricultural ecosystems. Here we summarize the results of 60 studies reporting flowering-time responses (defined as the time to first visible flower) of both crop and wild species at elevated [CO(2)]. These studies suggest that elevated [CO(2)] will influence flowering time in the future. In addition, interactions between elevated [CO(2)] and other global change factors may further complicate our ability to predict changes in flowering time. One approach to overcoming this problem is to elucidate the primary mechanisms that control flowering-time responses to elevated [CO(2)]. Unfortunately, the mechanisms controlling these responses are not known. However, past work has indicated that carbon metabolism exerts partial control on flowering time, and therefore may be involved in elevated [CO(2)]-induced changes in flowering time. This review also indicates the need for more studies addressing the effects of global change drivers on developmental processes in plants.     

Interactive effects of rising temperatures and urbanisation on birds across different climate zones: A mechanistic perspective

Climate change and urbanisation are among the most pervasive and rapidly growing threats to biodiversity worldwide. However, their impacts are usually considered in isolation, and interactions are rarely examined. Predicting species' responses to the combined effects of climate change and urbanisation, therefore, represents a pressing challenge in global change biology. Birds are important model taxa for exploring the impacts of both climate change and urbanisation, and their behaviour and physiology have been well studied in urban and non-urban systems. This understanding should allow interactive effects of rising temperatures and urbanisation to be inferred, yet considerations of these interactions are almost entirely lacking from empirical research. Here, we synthesise our current understanding of the potential mechanisms that could affect how species respond to the combined effects of rising temperatures and urbanisation, with a focus on avian taxa. We discuss potential interactive effects to motivate future in-depth research on this critically important, yet overlooked, aspect of global change biology. Increased temperatures are a pronounced consequence of both urbanisation (through the urban heat island effect) and climate change. The biological impact of this warming in urban and non-urban systems will likely differ in magnitude and direction when interacting with other factors that typically vary between these habitats, such as resource availability (e.g. water, food and microsites) and pollution levels. Furthermore, the nature of such interactions may differ for cities situated in different climate types, for example, tropical, arid, temperate, continental and polar. Within this article, we highlight the potential for interactive effects of climate and urban drivers on the mechanistic responses of birds, identify knowledge gaps and propose promising future research avenues. A deeper understanding of the behavioural and physiological mechanisms mediating species' responses to urbanisation and rising temperatures will provide novel insights into ecology and evolution under global change and may help better predict future population responses.     

Contrasting effects of biotic interactions on richness and distribution of vascular plants,bryophytes and lichens in an arctic–alpine landscape

Biotic interactions may strongly affect the distribution of individual species and the resulting patterns of species richness. However, the impacts can vary depending on the species or taxa examined, suggesting that the influences of interactions on species distributions and diversity are not always straightforward and can be taxon-contingent. The aim of this study was therefore to examine how the importance of biotic interactions varies within a community. We incorporated three biotic predictors (cover of the dominant vascular species) into two correlative species richness modelling frameworks to predict spatial variation in the number of vascular plants, bryophytes and lichens in arctic–alpine Fennoscandia, in N Europe. In addition, predictions based on single-species distribution models were used to determine the nature of the impact (negative vs. positive outcome) of the three dominant species on individual vascular plant, bryophyte and lichen species. Our results suggest that biotic variables can be as important as abiotic variables, but their relative contributions in explaining the richness of sub-dominant species vary among dominant species, species group and the modelling framework implemented. Similarly, the impacts of biotic interactions on individual species varied among the three species groups and dominant species, with the observed patterns partly reflecting species’ biogeographic range. Our study provides additional support for the importance of biotic interactions in modifying arctic–alpine biodiversity patterns and highlights that the impacts of interactions are not constant across taxa or biotic drivers. The influence of biotic interactions, including the taxon contingency and range-based impacts, should therefore be accounted for when developing biodiversity forecasts.     

Thermal acclimation modulates the impacts of temperature and enrichment on trophic interaction strengths and population dynamics

Global change affects individual phenotypes and biotic interactions, which can have cascading effects up to the ecosystem level. However, the role of environmentally induced phenotypic plasticity in species interactions is poorly understood, leaving a substantial gap in our knowledge of the impacts of global change on ecosystems. Using a cladoceran–dragonfly system, we experimentally investigated the effects of thermal acclimation, acute temperature change and enrichment on predator functional response and metabolic rate. Using our experimental data, we next parameterized a population dynamics model to determine the consequences of these effects on trophic interaction strength and food‐chain stability. We found that (1) predation and metabolic rates of the dragonfly larvae increase with acute warming, (2) warm‐acclimated larvae have a higher maximum predation rate than cold‐acclimated ones, and (3) long‐term interaction strength increases with enrichment but decreases with both acclimation and acute temperatures. Overall, our experimental results show that thermal acclimation can buffer negative impacts of environmental change on predators and increase food‐web stability and persistence. We conclude that the effect of acclimation and, more generally, phenotypic plasticity on trophic interactions should not be overlooked if we aim to understand the effects of climate change and enrichment on species interaction strength and food‐web stability.     

Empirical and theoretical challenges in aboveground–belowground ecology

A growing body of evidence shows that aboveground and belowground communities and processes are intrinsically linked, and that feedbacks between these subsystems have important implications for community structure and ecosystem functioning. Almost all studies on this topic have been carried out from an empirical perspective and in specific ecological settings or contexts. Belowground interactions operate at different spatial and temporal scales. Due to the relatively low mobility and high survival of organisms in the soil, plants have longer lasting legacy effects belowground than aboveground. Our current challenge is to understand how aboveground–belowground biotic interactions operate across spatial and temporal scales, and how they depend on, as well as influence, the abiotic environment. Because empirical capacities are too limited to explore all possible combinations of interactions and environmental settings, we explore where and how they can be supported by theoretical approaches to develop testable predictions and to generalise empirical results. We review four key areas where a combined aboveground–belowground approach offers perspectives for enhancing ecological understanding, namely succession, agro-ecosystems, biological invasions and global change impacts on ecosystems. In plant succession, differences in scales between aboveground and belowground biota, as well as between species interactions and ecosystem processes, have important implications for the rate and direction of community change. Aboveground as well as belowground interactions either enhance or reduce rates of plant species replacement. Moreover, the outcomes of the interactions depend on abiotic conditions and plant life history characteristics, which may vary with successional position. We exemplify where translation of the current conceptual succession models into more predictive models can help targeting empirical studies and generalising their results. Then, we discuss how understanding succession may help to enhance managing arable crops, grasslands and invasive plants, as well as provide insights into the effects of global change on community re-organisation and ecosystem processes.     

The Moran effect revisited: spatial population synchrony under global warming

The world is spatially autocorrelated. Both abiotic and biotic properties are more similar among neighboring than distant locations, and their temporal co-fluctuations also decrease with distance. P. A. P. Moran realized the ecological importance of such ‘spatial synchrony’ when he predicted that isolated populations subject to identical log-linear density-dependent processes should have the same correlation in fluctuations of abundance as the correlation in environmental noise. The contribution from correlated weather to synchrony of populations has later been coined the ‘Moran effect’. Here, we investigate the potential role of the Moran effect in large-scale ecological outcomes of global warming. Although difficult to disentangle from dispersal and species interaction effects, there is compelling evidence from across taxa and ecosystems that spatial environmental synchrony causes population synchrony. Given this, and the accelerating number of studies reporting climate change effects on local population dynamics, surprisingly little attention has been paid to the implications of global warming for spatial population synchrony. However, a handful of studies of insects, birds, plants, mammals and marine plankton indicate decadal-scale changes in population synchrony due to trends in environmental synchrony. We combine a literature review with modeling to outline potential pathways for how global warming, through changes in the mean, variability and spatial autocorrelation of weather, can impact population synchrony over time. This is particularly likely under a ‘generalized Moran effect’, i.e. when relaxing Moran's strict assumption of identical log-linear density-dependence, which is highly unrealistic in the wild. Furthermore, climate change can influence spatial population synchrony indirectly, through its effects on dispersal and species interactions. Because changes in population synchrony may cascade through food-webs, we argue that the (generalized) Moran effect is key to understanding and predicting impacts of global warming on large-scale ecological dynamics, with implications for extinctions, conservation and management.     

The importance of biotic interactions for modelling species distributions under climate change

Aim There is a debate as to whether biotic interactions exert a dominant role in governing species distributions at macroecological scales. The prevailing idea is that climate is the key limiting factor; thus models that use present‐day climate–species range relationships are expected to provide reasonable means to quantify the impacts of climate change on species distributions. However, there is little empirical evidence that biotic interactions would not constrain species distributions at macroecological scales. We examine this idea, for the first time, and provide tests for two null hypotheses: (H₀ 1) – biotic interactions do not exert a significant role in explaining current distributions of a particular species of butterfly (clouded Apollo, Parnassius mnemosyne) in Europe; and (H₀ 2) – biotic interactions do not exert a significant role in predictions of altered species’ ranges under climate change. Location Europe. Methods Generalized additive modelling (GAM) was used to investigate relationships between species and climate; species and host plants; and species and climate + host plants. Because models are sensitive to the variable selection strategies utilised, four alternative approaches were used: AIC (Akaike's Information Criterion), BIC (Bayesian Information Criterion), BRUTO (Adaptive Backfitting), and CROSS (Cross Selection). Results In spite of the variation in the variables selected with different methods, both hypotheses (H₀ 1 and H₀ 2) were falsified, providing support for the proposition that biotic interactions significantly affect both the explanatory and predictive power of bioclimatic envelope models at macro scales. Main conclusions Our results contradict the widely held view that the effects of biotic interactions on individual species distributions are not discernible at macroecological scales. Results are contingent on the species, type of interaction and methods considered, but they call for more stringent evidence in support of the idea that purely climate‐based modelling would be sufficient to quantify the impacts of climate change on species distributions.     

Direct and indirect interactions with vegetation shape crocodylian ecology at multiple scales

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Water use and yield of bioenergy poplar in future climates: modelling the interactive effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 and climate on productivity and water use

Vegetation exerts large control on global biogeochemical cycles through the processes of photosynthesis and transpiration that exchange CO₂ and water between the land and the atmosphere. Increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations exert direct effects on vegetation through enhanced photosynthesis and reduced stomatal conductance, and indirect effects through changes in climatic variables that drive these processes. How these direct and indirect CO₂ impacts interact with each other to affect plant productivity and water use has not been explicitly analysed and remains unclear, yet is important to fully understand the response of the global carbon cycle to future climate change. Here, we use a set of factorial modelling experiments to quantify the direct and indirect impacts of atmospheric CO₂ and their interaction on yield and water use in bioenergy short rotation coppice poplar, in addition to quantifying the impact of other environmental drivers such as soil type. We use the JULES land‐surface model forced with a ten‐member ensemble of projected climate change for 2100 with atmospheric CO₂ concentrations representative of the A1B emissions scenario. We show that the simulated response of plant productivity to future climate change was nonadditive in JULES, however this nonadditivity was not apparent for plant transpiration. The responses of both growth and transpiration under all experimental scenarios were highly variable between sites, highlighting the complexity of interactions between direct physiological CO₂ effects and indirect climate effects. As a result, no general pattern explaining the response of bioenergy poplar water use and yield to future climate change could be discerned across sites. This study suggests attempts to infer future climate change impacts on the land biosphere from studies that force with either the direct or indirect CO₂ effects in isolation from each other may lead to incorrect conclusions in terms of both the direction and magnitude of plant response to future climate change.     

Biotic homogenisation and differentiation as directional change in beta diversity: synthesising driver–response relationships to develop conceptual models across ecosystems

Biotic homogenisation is defined as decreasing dissimilarity among ecological assemblages sampled within a given spatial area over time. Biotic differentiation, in turn, is defined as increasing dissimilarity over time. Overall, changes in the spatial dissimilarities among assemblages (termed ‘beta diversity’) is an increasingly recognised feature of broader biodiversity change in the Anthropocene. Empirical evidence of biotic homogenisation and biotic differentiation remains scattered across different ecosystems. Most meta-analyses quantify the prevalence and direction of change in beta diversity, rather than attempting to identify underlying ecological drivers of such changes. By conceptualising the mechanisms that contribute to decreasing or increasing dissimilarity in the composition of ecological assemblages across space, environmental managers and conservation practitioners can make informed decisions about what interventions may be required to sustain biodiversity and can predict potential biodiversity outcomes of future disturbances. We systematically reviewed and synthesised published empirical evidence for ecological drivers of biotic homogenisation and differentiation across terrestrial, marine, and freshwater realms to derive conceptual models that explain changes in spatial beta diversity. We pursued five key themes in our review: (i) temporal environmental change; (ii) disturbance regime; (iii) connectivity alteration and species redistribution; (iv) habitat change; and (v) biotic and trophic interactions. Our first conceptual model highlights how biotic homogenisation and differentiation can occur as a function of changes in local (alpha) diversity or regional (gamma) diversity, independently of species invasions and losses due to changes in species occurrence among assemblages. Second, the direction and magnitude of change in beta diversity depends on the interaction between spatial variation (patchiness) and temporal variation (synchronicity) of disturbance events. Third, in the context of connectivity and species redistribution, divergent beta diversity outcomes occur as different species have different dispersal characteristics, and the magnitude of beta diversity change associated with species invasions also depends strongly on alpha and gamma diversity prior to species invasion. Fourth, beta diversity is positively linked with spatial environmental variability, such that biotic homogenisation and differentiation occur when environmental heterogeneity decreases or increases, respectively. Fifth, species interactions can influence beta diversity via habitat modification, disease, consumption (trophic dynamics), competition, and by altering ecosystem productivity. Our synthesis highlights the multitude of mechanisms that cause assemblages to be more or less spatially similar in composition (taxonomically, functionally, phylogenetically) through time. We consider that future studies should aim to enhance our collective understanding of ecological systems by clarifying the underlying mechanisms driving homogenisation or differentiation, rather than focusing only on reporting the prevalence and direction of change in beta diversity, per se.     

Assessing biodiversity loss due to land use with Life Cycle Assessment: are we there yet?

Ecosystems are under increasing pressure from human activities, with land use and land‐use change at the forefront of the drivers that provoke global and regional biodiversity loss. The first step in addressing the challenge of how to reverse the negative outlook for the coming years starts with measuring environmental loss rates and assigning responsibilities. Pinpointing the global pressures on biodiversity is a task best addressed using holistic models such as Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). LCA is the leading method for calculating cradle‐to‐grave environmental impacts of products and services; it is actively promoted by many public policies, and integrated as part of environmental information systems within private companies. LCA already deals with the potential biodiversity impacts of land use, but there are significant obstacles to overcome before its models grasp the full reach of the phenomena involved. In this review, we discuss some pressing issues that need to be addressed. LCA mainly introduces biodiversity as an endpoint category modeled as a loss in species richness due to the conversion and use of land over time and space. The functional and population effects on biodiversity are mostly absent due to the emphasis on species accumulation with limited geographic and taxonomical reach. Current land‐use modeling activities that use biodiversity indicators tend to oversimplify the real dynamics and complexity of the interactions of species among each other and with their habitats. To identify the main areas for improvement, we systematically reviewed LCA studies on land use that had findings related to global change and conservation ecology. We provide suggestion as to how to address some of the issues raised. Our overall objective was to encourage companies to monitor and take concrete steps to address the impacts of land use on biodiversity on a broader geographical scale and along increasingly globalized supply chains.     

Ecosystem feedbacks and cascade processes: understanding their role in the responses of Arctic and alpine ecosystems to environmental change

Global environmental change, related to climate change and the deposition of airborne N‐containing contaminants, has already resulted in shifts in plant community composition among plant functional types in Arctic and temperate alpine regions. In this paper, we review how key ecosystem processes will be altered by these transformations, the complex biological cascades and feedbacks that might result, and some of the potential broader consequences for the earth system. Firstly, we consider how patterns of growth and allocation, and nutrient uptake, will be altered by the shifts in plant dominance. The ways in which these changes may disproportionately affect the consumer communities, and rates of decomposition, are then discussed. We show that the occurrence of a broad spectrum of plant growth forms in these regions (from cryptogams to deciduous and evergreen dwarf shrubs, graminoids and forbs), together with hypothesized low functional redundancy, will mean that shifts in plant dominance result in a complex series of biotic cascades, couplings and feedbacks which are supplemental to the direct responses of ecosystem components to the primary global change drivers. The nature of these complex interactions is highlighted using the example of the climate‐driven increase in shrub cover in low‐Arctic tundra, and the contrasting transformations in plant functional composition in mid‐latitude alpine systems. Finally, the potential effects of the transformations on ecosystem properties and processes that link with the earth system are reviewed. We conclude that the effects of global change on these ecosystems, and potential climate‐change feedbacks, cannot be predicted from simple empirical relationships between processes and driving variables. Rather, the effects of changes in species distributions and dominances on key ecosystem processes and properties must also be considered, based upon best estimates of the trajectories of key transformations, their magnitude and rates of change.     

Temporal dynamics influenced by global change: bee community phenology in urban,agricultural, and natural landscapes

Urbanization and agricultural intensification of landscapes are important drivers of global change, which in turn have direct impacts on local ecological communities leading to shifts in species distributions and interactions. Here, we illustrate how human‐altered landscapes, with novel ornamental and crop plant communities, result not only in changes to local community diversity of floral‐dependent species, but also in shifts in seasonal abundance of bee pollinators. Three years of data on the spatio‐temporal distributions of 91 bee species show that seasonal patterns of abundance and species richness in human‐altered landscapes varied significantly less compared to natural habitats in which floral resources are relatively scarce in the dry summer months. These findings demonstrate that anthropogenic environmental changes in urban and agricultural systems, here mediated through changes in plant resources and water inputs, can alter the temporal dynamics of pollinators that depend on them. Changes in phenology of interactions can be an important, though frequently overlooked, mechanism of global change.