Non‐breeding range size predicts the magnitude of population trends in trans‐Saharan migratory passerine birds

Understanding why populations of some migratory species show a directional change over time, i.e. increase or decrease, while others do not, remains a challenge for ecological research. One possible explanation is that species with smaller non‐breeding ranges may have more pronounced directional population trends, and their populations are thus more sensitive to the variation in environmental conditions in their non‐breeding quarters. According to the serial residency hypothesis, this sensitivity should lead to higher magnitudes (i.e. absolute values) of population trends for species with smaller non‐breeding ranges, with the direction of trend being either positive or negative depending on the nature of the environmental change. We tested this hypothesis using population trends over 2001–2012 for 36 sub‐Saharan migratory passerine birds breeding in Europe. Namely, we related the magnitude of the species' population trends to the size of their sub‐Saharan non‐breeding grounds, whilst controlling for factors including number of migration routes, non‐breeding habitat niche and wetness, breeding habitat type and life‐history strategy. The magnitude of species' population trends grew with decreasing absolute size of sub‐Saharan non‐breeding ranges, and this result remained significant when non‐breeding range size was expressed relative to the size of the breeding range. After repeating the analysis with the trend direction, the relationship with the non‐breeding range size disappeared, indicating that both population decreases and increases are frequent amongst species with small non‐breeding range sizes. Therefore, species with small non‐breeding ranges are at a higher risk of population decline due to adverse factors such as habitat loss or climatic extremes, but their populations are also more likely to increase when suitable conditions appear. As non‐breeding ranges may originate from stochasticity of non‐breeding site selection in naive birds (‘serial‐residency’ hypothesis), it is crucial to maintain a network of stable and resilient habitats over large areas of birds’ non‐breeding quarters.     

Evolutionary drivers of seasonal plumage colours: colour change by moult correlates with sexual selection,predation risk and seasonality across passerines

Some birds undergo seasonal colour change by moulting twice each year, typically alternating between a cryptic, non‐breeding plumage and a conspicuous, breeding plumage (‘seasonal plumage colours’). We test for potential drivers of the evolution of seasonal plumage colours in all passerines (N = 5901 species, c. 60% of all birds). Seasonal plumage colours are uncommon, having appeared on multiple occasions but more frequently lost during evolution. The trait is more common in small, ground‐foraging species with polygynous mating systems, no paternal care and strong sexual dichromatism, suggesting it evolved under strong sexual selection and high predation risk. Seasonal plumage colours are also more common in species predicted to have seasonal breeding schedules, such as migratory birds and those living in seasonal climates. We propose that seasonal plumage colours have evolved to resolve a trade‐off between the effects of natural and sexual selection on colouration, especially in seasonal environments.     

Seasonal niche-tracking behaviour of two partially migratory passerines

Migratory birds spend periods of the year in different locations as a response to seasonal changes in environmental suitability. They are classified as either ‘niche-trackers’ or ‘niche-switchers’, depending on whether they track or switch environmental conditions throughout the year. However, the relationship between these strategies and their migratory behaviour is still unclear. Here we examine whether migratory European Robins Erithacus rubecula and Eurasian Blackcaps Sylvia atricapilla track environmental conditions between breeding and wintering areas and whether their behaviour differs from that of their sedentary counterparts. We used ringing data for both migratory and sedentary individuals wintering sympatrically in the Iberian Peninsula to assess the environmental conditions relating to their seasonal distributions. We explored seasonal niche-tracking using two multivariate analyses with alternative sets of predictor variables (landscape and climate) to generate different environmental scenarios. Our results show that migratory individuals track similar climatic conditions throughout their seasonal distributions, whereas sedentary birds cope with great variation in climate over the course of the year. In addition, migratory birds show less seasonal overlap in the landscape structure of their chosen habitats compared with sedentary individuals. These results suggest that there is a trade-off between, on the one hand, the cost for migrants of travelling long distances and, on the other, the increased flexibility required by sedentary birds if they are to tolerate a wider suite of environmental conditions within their permanent ranges. Given that sedentary populations in the southern Iberian Peninsula seem to be linked to populations of migratory individuals of these two species that started to move northwards after the last glacial cycle, the observed patterns suggest that migrant birds represent a fraction of the southern population that is specialized in the exploitation of a narrower range of environmental conditions.     

Migratory diversity predicts population declines in birds

Declines in migratory species are a pressing concern worldwide, but the mechanisms underpinning these declines are not fully understood. We hypothesised that species with greater within‐population variability in migratory movements and destinations, here termed ‘migratory diversity’, might be more resilient to environmental change. To test this, we related map‐based metrics of migratory diversity to recent population trends for 340 European breeding birds. Species that occupy larger non‐breeding ranges relative to breeding, a characteristic we term ‘migratory dispersion’, were less likely to be declining than those with more restricted non‐breeding ranges. Species with partial migration strategies (i.e. overlapping breeding and non‐breeding ranges) were also less likely to be declining than full migrants or full residents, an effect that was independent of migration distance. Recent rates of advancement in Europe‐wide spring arrival date were greater for partial migrants than full migrants, suggesting that migratory diversity may also help facilitate species responses to climate change.     

Nomadism and seasonal range expansion in a large frugivorous bird

Studies on the ranging behaviour of birds often suggest that ranges vary seasonally with larger ranges in the non‐breeding compared to the breeding season. However, due to limitations in tracking methods very little is known about the underlying processes driving seasonal differences in ranging behaviour, especially in fragmented, heterogeneous landscapes. Such knowledge is particularly important if movements deliver essential ecosystem functions such as seed dispersal. We contrasted the daily ranging behaviour between the breeding and non‐breeding season of a frugivorous bird and demonstrate how larger seasonal ranges in the non‐breeding season emerge through switching from a stationary home range behaviour to nomadism. We tracked movements of 29 male trumpeter hornbills Bycanistes bucinator across a fragmented landscape of eastern South Africa during different breeding and non‐breeding seasons using high temporal resolution GPS data‐loggers. Birds in the breeding seasons showed a typical, stationary home range pattern. In the non‐breeding seasons birds, rather than expanding their stationary daily ranges, switched to nomadic movements that were characterized by shifts of the general location of daily ranges to a different area every couple of days. We also found that during the breeding seasons hornbills were mostly located in large continuous forests; birds in the non‐breeding seasons frequently used forest patches within the agricultural landscape and residential areas. These seasonal differences in the movement behaviour of trumpeter hornbills may have important consequences for seed dispersal of plant species. Our findings show how seasonal range expansion of frugivorous birds may be driven by fundamental behavioural changes that have important consequences for ecosystem processes.     

Where the wild birds go: explaining the differences in migratory destinations across terrestrial bird species

Given their large movement capacities, migratory birds have in principle a wide range of possible geographical locations for their breeding and non‐breeding destinations, yet each species migrates between consistent breeding and non‐breeding ranges. In this study, we use a macroecological approach to search for the general factors explaining the location of the seasonal ranges of migratory bird species across the globe. We develop a null model to test the hypotheses that access to resources, geographical distance, tracking of temperature, and habitat conditions (separately as well as considered together) have a major influence in the location of species’ migratory destinations, once each species’ geographical constraints are taken into account. Our results provide evidence for a trade‐off between costs associated with distance travelled and gains in terms of better access to resources. We also provide strong support to the hypotheses that all factors tested, with the exception of habitat, have a strong and additive effect on the global geography of bird migration. Indeed, our results indicate that species’ contemporary migratory destinations (i.e. the combination of their breeding and non‐breeding ranges) are such that they allow species to track a temperature regime throughout the year, to escape local competition and reach areas with better access to resources, and to minimise the spatial distance travelled, within the limitations imposed by the geographical location of each species. Our study thus sheds light on the mechanisms underpinning bird migration and provides a strong basis for predicting how migratory species will respond to future change.     

Niche-tracking migrants and niche-switching residents: evolution of climatic niches in New World warblers (Parulidae)

Differences in life-history traits between tropical and temperate lineages are often attributed to differences in their climatic niche dynamics. For example, the more frequent appearance of migratory behaviour in temperate-breeding species than in species originally breeding in the tropics is believed to have resulted partly from tropical climatic stability and niche conservatism constraining tropical species from shifting their ranges. However, little is known about the patterns and processes underlying climatic niche evolution in migrant and resident animals. We evaluated the evolution of overlap in climatic niches between seasons and its relationship to migratory behaviour in the Parulidae, a family of New World passerine birds. We used ordination methods to measure seasonal niche overlap and niche breadth of 54 resident and 49 migrant species and used phylogenetic comparative methods to assess patterns of climatic niche evolution. We found that despite travelling thousands of kilometres, migrants tracked climatic conditions across the year to a greater extent than tropical residents. Migrant species had wider niches than resident species, although residents as a group occupied a wider climatic space and niches of migrants and residents overlapped extensively. Neither breeding latitude nor migratory distance explained variation among species in climatic niche overlap between seasons. Our findings support the notion that tropical species have narrower niches than temperate-breeders, but does not necessarily constrain their ability to shift or expand their geographical ranges and become migratory. Overall, the tropics may have been historically less likely to experience the suite of components that generate strong selection pressures for the evolution of migratory behaviour.     

Cross‐continental migratory connectivity and spatiotemporal migratory patterns in the great reed warbler

Migratory connectivity describes to which degree different breeding populations have distinct (non‐overlapping) non‐breeding sites. Uncovering the level of migratory connectivity is crucial for effective conservation actions and for understanding of the evolution of local adaptations and migratory routes. Here we investigate migration patterns in a passerine bird, the great reed warbler Acrocephalus arundinaceus, over its wide Western Palearctic breeding range using geolocators from Spain, Sweden, Czech Republic, Bulgaria and Turkey. We found moderate migratory connectivity: a highly significant spatial structure in the connections between breeding and sub‐Saharan non‐breeding grounds, but at the same time a partial overlap between individual populations, particularly along the Gulf of Guinea where the majority of birds from the Spanish, Swedish and Czech populations spent their non‐breeding period. The post‐breeding migration routes were similar in direction and rather parallel for the five populations. Birds from Turkey showed the most distinctive migratory routes and sub‐Saharan non‐breeding range, with a post‐breeding migration to east Africa and, together with birds from Bulgaria, a previously unknown pre‐breeding migration over the Arabian Peninsula indicating counter‐clockwise loop migration. The distances between breeding and sub‐Saharan non‐breeding sites, as well as between first and final sub‐Saharan non‐breeding sites, differed among populations. However, the total speed of migration did not differ significantly between populations; neither during post‐breeding migration in autumn, nor pre‐breeding migration in spring. There was also no significant relationship between the total speed of migration and distance between breeding and non‐breeding sites (neither post‐ nor pre‐breeding) and, surprisingly, the total speed of migration generally did not differ significantly between post‐breeding and pre‐breeding migration. Future challenges include understanding whether non‐breeding environmental conditions may have influenced the differences in migratory patterns that we observed between populations, and to which extent non‐breeding habitat fluctuations and loss may affect population sizes of migrants.     

Process in the evolution of bird migration and pattern in avian ecogeography

Current ideas about the evolution of bird migration equate its origin with the first appearance of fully migratory populations, and attribute its evolution to a selective advantage generated by increased breeding success, gained through temporary emigration from resident populations to breed in under-exploited seasonal areas. I propose an alternative hypothesis in which migration first appears as a temporary directional shift away from the breeding site outside the reproductive period, in response to seasonal variation in the direction and/or severity of environmental gradients. Fully migratory populations then appear through either extinction of sedentary phenotypes, or colonisation of vacant seasonal areas by migrants. Where colonisation occurs, resident ancestral populations can be driven to extinction by competition from migrants which invade their range outside the breeding season, resulting in fully migratory species. An analogous process drives the evolution of migration between high latitudes and the tropics, since extension of breeding range into higher latitudes may drive low latitude populations to extinction, resulting in an overall shift of breeding range. This process can explain reverse latitudinal gradients in avian diversity in the temperate zone, since the breeding ranges of migratory species concentrate in latitudes where they enjoy the highest breeding success. Near absence of forest-dwelling species among Palaearctic-African migrants is attributable to the lack of forest in northern Africa for much of the Tertiary, which has precluded selection both for southward extension of migration by west Palaearctic forest species, and northward breeding colonisation by African forest species.     

Seasonal associations with novel climates for North American migratory bird populations

Determining the implications of global climate change for highly mobile taxa such as migratory birds requires a perspective that is spatiotemporally comprehensive and ecologically relevant. Here, we document how passerine bird species that migrate within the Western Hemisphere (n = 77) are associated with projected novel climates across the full annual cycle. Following expectations, highly novel climates occurred on tropical non‐breeding grounds and the least novel climates occurred on temperate breeding grounds. Contrary to expectations, highly novel climates also occurred within temperate regions during the transition from breeding to autumn migration. This outcome was caused by lower inter‐annual climatic variability occurring in combination with stronger warming projections. Thus, migrants are projected to encounter novel climates across the majority of their annual cycle, with a pronounced peak occurring when juveniles are leaving the nest and preparing to embark on their first migratory journey, which may adversely affect their chances of survival.     

Time of emergence of novel climates for North American migratory bird populations

To better understand the ecological implications of global climate change for species that display geographically and seasonally dynamic life‐history strategies, we need to determine where and when novel climates are projected to first emerge. Here, we use a multivariate approach to estimate time of emergence (ToE) of novel climates based on three climate variables (precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature) at a weekly temporal resolution within the Western Hemisphere over a 280‐yr period (2021–2300) under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5). We intersect ToE estimates with weekly estimates of relative abundance for 77 passerine bird species that migrate between temperate breeding grounds in North America and southern tropical and subtropical wintering grounds using observations from the eBird citizen‐science database. During the non‐breeding season, migrants that winter within the tropics are projected to encounter novel climates during the second half of this century. Migrants that winter in the subtropics are projected to encounter novel climates during the first half of the next century. During the beginning of the breeding season, migrants on their temperate breeding grounds are projected to encounter novel climates during the first half of the next century. During the end of the breeding season, migrants are projected to encounter novel climates during the second half of this century. Thus, novel climates will first emerge ca 40–50 yr earlier during the second half of the breeding season. These results emphasize the large seasonal and spatial variation in the formation of novel climates, and the pronounced challenges migratory birds are likely to encounter during this century, especially on their tropical wintering grounds and during the transition from breeding to migration. When assessing the ecological implications of climate change, our findings emphasize the value of applying a full annual cycle perspective using standardized metrics that promote comparisons across space and time.     

The role of migration for spatial turnover of arctic bird species in a circumpolar perspective

Several different factors may determine where species range limits are located within regions of otherwise continuously available habitat and suitable climate. Within the Arctic tundra biome many bird species are migratory and their breeding distributions are affected by migration routes that are in turn limited by factors such as suitable winter habitat, migratory stopover sites, geographical barriers and historical routes of colonization. We identified longitudinal zones in the circumpolar Arctic of pronounced changes in the avian species composition (high species spatial turnover; ‘species divides’). We tested for the association between migratory status and the geographical location and numbers of such species divides for species with non‐breeding habitats mainly within terrestrial, pelagic and coastal ecosystems. Our results demonstrate that migration is of profound importance for both the number and locations of species divides in the Arctic. Long‐distance migration is associated with a large number of divides among terrestrial and coastal arctic birds but with a reduced number of divides among pelagic birds. We suggest that long‐distance migration permits pelagic but not terrestrial and coastal birds to colonize large winter ranges, which in turn causes expansion of breeding ranges, with more homogenous communities and reduction of species divides as consequences, among the long‐distance migrants of pelagic but not of terrestrial and coastal birds. Furthermore, the divides among long‐distance migrants are situated in two main regions, the Beringia and Greenland zones, while divides among short‐distance migrants are more evenly spaced throughout the circumpolar Arctic. The Beringia and Greenland divides result largely from inter‐continental colonization of new breeding ranges but retainment of original winter quarters in a process of evolution through extension of migration routes, leading to aggregated divides in the meeting zones of major global flyways.     

A long winter for the Red Queen: rethinking the evolution of seasonal migration

This paper advances an hypothesis that the primary adaptive driver of seasonal migration is maintenance of site fidelity to familiar breeding locations. We argue that seasonal migration is therefore principally an adaptation for geographic persistence when confronted with seasonality – analogous to hibernation, freeze tolerance, or other organismal adaptations to cyclically fluctuating environments. These ideas stand in contrast to traditional views that bird migration evolved as an adaptive dispersal strategy for exploiting new breeding areas and avoiding competitors. Our synthesis is supported by a large body of research on avian breeding biology that demonstrates the reproductive benefits of breeding‐site fidelity. Conceptualizing migration as an adaptation for persistence places new emphasis on understanding the evolutionary trade‐offs between migratory behaviour and other adaptations to fluctuating environments both within and across species. Seasonality‐induced departures from breeding areas, coupled with the reproductive benefits of maintaining breeding‐site fidelity, also provide a mechanism for explaining the evolution of migration that is agnostic to the geographic origin of migratory lineages (i.e. temperate or tropical). Thus, our framework reconciles much of the conflict in previous research on the historical biogeography of migratory species. Although migratory behaviour and geographic range change fluidly and rapidly in many populations, we argue that the loss of plasticity for migration via canalization is an overlooked aspect of the evolutionary dynamics of migration and helps explain the idiosyncratic distributions and migratory routes of long‐distance migrants. Our synthesis, which revolves around the insight that migratory organisms travel long distances simply to stay in the same place, provides a necessary evolutionary context for understanding historical biogeographic patterns in migratory lineages as well as the ecological dynamics of migratory connectivity between breeding and non‐breeding locations.     

Does migration promote or restrict circumpolar breeding ranges of arctic birds?

Aim Migration has been suggested to promote large breeding ranges among birds because of the greater mobility of migratory compared with non‐migratory species, but migration has also been suggested to restrict breeding ranges because of evolutionary constraints imposed by the genetically based migration control programme. We aim to investigate the association between migration and the breeding ranges of both land birds and pelagic birds breeding in the Arctic region. Location The Arctic region. Methods Information on breeding and wintering ranges and migratory status of bird species breeding in the arctic tundra biome was compiled from the literature. The association between breeding range, migration distance and primary winter habitat was tested using multivariate generalized linear models and pair‐wise Mann–Whitney U‐tests. Phylogenetic effects were tested for using Mantel’s permutation tests. Results We found different relationships depending on the species’ major winter habitat. Among birds that are pelagic during winter, long‐distance migrants have the largest breeding ranges, while among terrestrial birds, residents and short‐distance migrants have the largest breeding ranges. Breeding ranges of coastal birds of all migratory distance classes are comparatively restricted. Main conclusions As a new explanation for this pattern we suggest that the possibility of colonizing large winter ranges is a key factor for the subsequent expansion of breeding ranges in arctic bird communities and possibly also in bird communities of other regions of the world. Because of the reversal in the relative extent of continents and oceans between the hemispheres, longitudinally wide winter ranges are more likely for long‐distance than short‐distance migrants among pelagic birds, while the reverse holds true for birds that use terrestrial winter habitats. For coastal birds both continents and oceans form barriers restricting colonization of extensive winter quarters and consequently also of extensive breeding ranges, regardless of the distance to the winter quarters.     

Migration strategies of the Baltic dunlin: rapid jump migration in the autumn but slower skipping type spring migration

Migration during spring is usually faster than during autumn because of competition for breeding territories. In some cases, however, the costs and benefits associated with the environment can lead to slower spring migration, but examples are quite rare. We compared seasonal migration strategies of the endangered Baltic population of the dunlin Calidris alpina schinzii using light‐level geolocator data from 26 individuals breeding in Finland. Autumn migration was faster, with individuals showing a ‘jump’ and ‘skipping’ migration strategy characterised by fewer stationary periods, shorter total stopping time and faster flight. Spring migration was slower, with individuals using a ‘skipping’ strategy. The duration of migration was longer for early departing birds during spring but not during autumn suggesting that early spring migrants are prevented from arriving to the breeding areas or that fueling conditions are worse on the stopover sites for early arriving individuals. Dunlins showed high migratory connectivity. All individuals had one long staging at the Wadden Sea in the autumn after which half of the individuals flew 4500 km non‐stop to Banc d’Arguin, Mauritania. The other half stopped briefly on the Atlantic coast on their way to Mauritania. One bird wintered on the coast of Portugal. Nine individuals that carried geolocators for two years were site faithful to their final non‐breeding sites. Based on the strategies during the non‐breeding period we identified, Baltic dunlin may be especially vulnerable to rapid environmental changes at the staging and non‐breeding areas. Consequently, the preservation of the identified non‐breeding areas is important for their conservation.     

Short‐term changes in body condition in relation to habitat and rainfall abundance in American redstarts Setophaga ruticilla during the non‐breeding season

In migratory birds, environmental conditions during the stationary period of the non‐breeding season are crucial to consider because they ultimately affect the fitness of individuals by influencing their subsequent migration, breeding success and survival. Although a few studies have investigated the influence of non‐breeding habitat on the capacity of individuals to cope with long‐term seasonal rainfall fluctuations, it remains unknown how habitat quality and variations in rainfall abundance–at a monthly scale–interact to affect non‐breeding condition of migrating birds. In this study, we examined the influence of monthly changes in rainfall abundance on body condition of non‐breeding female redstarts Setophaga ruticilla living either in a high quality habitat (mangrove) or in a low quality habitat (scrub). Body condition of both mangrove and scrub redstarts showed important variations over the study period, demonstrating for the first time that body condition of non‐breeding female redstarts can change rapidly in response to short‐term fluctuations in rainfall. Importantly, we found that female redstarts living in mangrove were usually in better condition during periods of low rainfall compared to females living in scrub. However, body condition did not differ between mangrove females and scrub females during an episode of frequent, heavy precipitation. Importantly, our study also demonstrated that the duration of a perturbation is an important determinant of body condition in redstarts since a prolonged drought resulted in similar low body condition for birds from both habitats. Age was not correlated with body condition whatever the habitat and the rainfall conditions. Our results demonstrate that high quality habitat can temporarily reduce the deleterious effect of a short‐term drought on body condition, but also, that a habitat of low quality does not constrain individuals when climatic conditions are optimal.     

Energetic consequences of contrasting winter migratory strategies in a sympatric Arctic seabird duet

At the onset of winter, warm‐blooded animals inhabiting seasonal environments may remain resident and face poorer climatic conditions, or migrate towards more favourable habitats. While the origins and evolution of migratory choices have been extensively studied, their consequences on avian energy balance and winter survival are poorly understood, especially in species difficult to observe such as seabirds. Using miniaturized geolocators, time‐depth recorders and a mechanistic model, we investigated the migratory strategies, the activity levels and the energy expenditure of the closely‐related, sympatrically breeding Brünnich's guillemots Uria lomvia and common guillemots Uria aalge from Bjørnøya, Svalbard. The two guillemot species from this region present contrasting migratory strategies and wintering quarters: Brünnich's guillemots migrate across the North Atlantic to overwinter off southeast Greenland and Faroe Islands, while common guillemots remain resident in the Barents, the Norwegian and the White Seas. Results show that both species display a marked behavioural plasticity to respond to environmental constraint, notably modulating their foraging effort and diving behaviour. Nevertheless, we provide evidence that the migratory strategy adopted by guillemots can have important consequences for their energy balance. Overall energy expenditure estimated for the non‐breeding season is relatively similar between both species, suggesting that both southward migration and high‐arctic winter residency are energetically equivalent and suitable strategies. However, we also demonstrate that the migratory strategy adopted by Brünnich's guillemots allows them to have reduced daily energy expenditures during the challenging winter period. We therefore speculate that ‘resident’ common guillemots are more vulnerable than ‘migrating’ Brünnich's guillemots to harsh winter environmental conditions.     

Weak breeding seasonality of a songbird in a seasonally arid tropical environment arises from individual flexibility and strongly seasonal moult

In some tropical birds, breeding seasonality is weak at the population level, even where there are predictable seasonal peaks in environmental conditions. It therefore remains unclear whether individuals are adapted to breeding at specific times of the year or flexible to variable environmental conditions. We tested whether the relative year‐round breeding activity of the Common Bulbul Pycnonotus barbatus arises due to within‐individual variability in breeding dates. We collected data from 827 birds via mist‐netting over 2 years with corresponding local weather data. We used a combination of climate envelope and generalized linear mixed models to explore how the timing of breeding is influenced by time of year, individual variation, rainfall and temperature in a West African savannah where seasonal precipitation determines annual variation in environmental conditions. We also pooled 65 breeding records from 19 individuals recorded between 2006 and 2017 based on brood patch occurrence and behavioural observation to compare within‐individual and population variability in breeding dates. We show that the breeding dates of individuals may be as variable as for the population as a whole. However, we observed a seasonal peak in juvenile occurrence that varies significantly between years. Models suggest no relationship between nesting and moult, and within‐year variation in rainfall and temperature, and birds were unlikely to breed during moult but may do so afterwards. Moult was very seasonal, correlating strongly with day length. We suggest that because environmental conditions permit year‐round breeding, and because reproductive output is subject to high predation risk, there is probably a weak selection for individuals to match breeding with variable peak conditions in the environment. Instead, moult, which always occurs annually and successfully, is probably under strong selection to match variable peak conditions in the environment so that long‐term survival ensures future reproduction.     

Migratory shorebird adheres to Bergmann's Rule by responding to environmental conditions through the annual lifecycle

The inverse relationship between body size and environmental temperature is a widespread ecogeographic pattern. However, the underlying forces that produce this pattern are unclear in many taxa. Expectations are particularly unclear for migratory species, as individuals may escape environmental extremes and reorient themselves along the environmental gradient. In addition, some aspects of body size are largely fixed while others are environmentally flexible and may vary seasonally. Here, we used a long‐term dataset that tracked multiple populations of the migratory piping plover Charadrius melodus across their breeding and non‐breeding ranges to investigate ecogeographic patterns of phenotypically flexible (body mass) and fixed (wing length) size traits in relation to latitude (Bergmann's Rule), environmental temperature (heat conservation hypothesis), and migratory distance. We found that body mass was correlated with both latitude and temperature across the breeding and non‐breeding ranges, which is consistent with predictions of Bergmann's Rule and heat conservation. However, wing length was correlated with latitude and temperature only on the breeding range. This discrepancy resulted from low migratory connectivity across seasons and the tendency for individuals with longer wings to migrate farther than those with shorter wings. Ultimately, these results suggest that wing length may be driven more by conditions experienced during the breeding season or tradeoffs related to migration, whereas body mass is modified by environmental conditions experienced throughout the annual lifecycle.     

Using stable hydrogen isotopes (δ2H) and ring recoveries to trace natal origins in a Eurasian passerine with a migratory divide

Despite recent advances in technology, it remains difficult to connect breeding and non‐breeding areas of populations of migratory organisms due to the challenges of year‐round tracking. Here, we used the Eurasian reed warbler Acrocephalus scirpaceus, a passerine with a pronounced migratory divide to demonstrate the promise of integrating several sources of information within the Bayesian modelling framework for the study of migratory connectivity. To this end, we combined data from stable hydrogen isotope ratios (δ²H) of feathers, ring recoveries, and the geographic delineation of sub‐populations on either side of the migratory divide. Feather δ²H measurements from local juvenile birds sampled across the breeding range tightly correlated with amount‐weighted mean annual precipitation δ²H values predicted for the natal sites. Predicted natal origins of birds intercepted en route in the Mediterranean region largely differed among the five stopover sites. Thanks to the different migratory pathways used by different breeding populations and the existence of a migratory divide, we were able to effectively narrow the assigned regions of origin. Our results show that spatial resolution of likelihood‐based assignments of geographic origins based on δ²H measurements may improve significantly when prior probabilities derived from population‐specific migratory directions are included. Integrating information from stable isotopes, ring recoveries, geolocators and other sources within the Bayesian modelling framework will provide an extremely useful toolbox for the study of animal movements in the future.