Associations of diatoms in the surficial sediments of lakes and peat pools in Atlantic Canada

The distribution of diatom frustules in the surficial sediments of lakes and ombrotrophic peat pools in Atlantic Canada are examined especially in relation to pH and bog lake succession. Sedimentary diatom associations for peat pools, strongly acidic lakes, and weakly acidic lakes are characterized. These associations and the derived diatom-pH calibration functions will facilitate improved paleoecological interpretation of natural ontogenetic pathways and assessments of recent anthropogenic impacts.     

Large geographical differences in the sensitivity of ice‐covered lakes and rivers in the Northern Hemisphere to temperature changes

Based on a unique dataset of more than 50 000 observations of ice phenology from 1213 lakes and 236 rivers in 12 different countries, we show that interannual variations in the timing of ice‐on and ice‐off on lakes and rivers are not equally pronounced over the entire Northern Hemisphere, but increase strongly towards geographical regions that experience only short periods during which the air temperature falls below 0 °C. We explain our observations by interannual fluctuation patterns of air temperature and suggest that lake and river ecosystems in such geographical regions are particularly vulnerable to global warming, as high interannual variability is known to have important ramifications for ecosystem structure and functioning. We estimate that the standard deviation of the duration of ice cover, viewed as a measure of interannual variability, exceeds 25 days for lakes and rivers located on 7% of the land area of the Northern Hemisphere. Such high variability might be an early warning signal for a critical transition from strictly dimictic, ice‐covered systems to monomictic, open‐water systems. Using the Global Lake and Wetland Database, we suggest that 3.7% of the world's lakes larger than 0.1 km² are at high risk of becoming open‐water systems in the near future, which will have immediate consequences for global biogeochemical cycles.     

Multivariate analysis of diatoms and water chemistry in Bolivian saline lakes

Diatom assemblages are described from surface sediments in thirteen salt lakes located in the southern Bolivian Altiplano. Factor analysis of correspondences and cluster analysis are used to classify the diatom assemblages. New methods are proposed to establish the qualitative and quantitative relationships between diatom floras and ecological parameters. Diatom assemblages are linked more to the ionic elements than to the salinity, pH, depth, temperature or elevation. Environmental variables are divided into three modalities which allow considerations of many different variables not under the same units.     

Challenging a 15‐year‐old claim: The North Atlantic Oscillation index as a predictor of spring migration phenology of birds

Many migrant bird species that breed in the Northern Hemisphere show advancement in spring arrival dates. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index is one of the climatic variables that have been most often investigated and shown to be correlated with these changes in spring arrival. Although the NAO is often claimed to be a good predictor or even to have a marked effect on interannual changes in spring migration phenology of Northern Hemisphere breeding birds, the results on relations between spring migration phenology and NAO show a large variety, ranging from no, over weak, to a strong association. Several factors, such as geographic location, migration phase, and the NAO index time window, have been suggested to partly explain these observed differences in association. A combination of a literature meta‐analysis, and a meta‐analysis and sliding time window analysis of a dataset of 23 short‐ and long‐distance migrants from the constant‐effort trapping garden at Helgoland, Germany, however, paints a completely different picture. We found a statistically significant overall effect size of the NAO on spring migration phenology (coefficient = ?0.14, SE = 0.054), but this on average only explains 0%–6% of the variance in spring migration phenology across all species. As such, the value and biological meaning of the NAO as a general predictor or explanatory variable for climate change effects on migration phenology of birds, seems highly questionable. We found little to no definite support for previously suggested factors, such as geographic location, migration phenology phase, or the NAO time window, to explain the heterogeneity in correlation differences. We, however, did find compelling evidence that the lack of accounting for trends in both time series has led to strongly inflated (spurious) correlations in many studies (coefficient = ?0.13, SE = 0.019).     

Acceleration of cyanobacterial dominance in north temperate‐subarctic lakes during the Anthropocene

Increases in atmospheric temperature and nutrients from land are thought to be promoting the expansion of harmful cyanobacteria in lakes worldwide, yet to date there has been no quantitative synthesis of long‐term trends. To test whether cyanobacteria have increased in abundance over the past ~ 200 years and evaluate the relative influence of potential causal mechanisms, we synthesised 108 highly resolved sedimentary time series and 18 decadal‐scale monitoring records from north temperate‐subarctic lakes. We demonstrate that: (1) cyanobacteria have increased significantly since c. 1800 ce , (2) they have increased disproportionately relative to other phytoplankton, and (3) cyanobacteria increased more rapidly post c. 1945 ce . Variation among lakes in the rates of increase was explained best by nutrient concentration (phosphorus and nitrogen), and temperature was of secondary importance. Although cyanobacterial biomass has declined in some managed lakes with reduced nutrient influx, the larger spatio‐temporal scale of sedimentary records show continued increases in cyanobacteria throughout the north temperate‐subarctic regions.     

River connectivity and climate behind the long‐term evolution of tropical American floodplain lakes

This study presents the long‐term evolution of two floodplains lakes (San Juana and Barbacoas) of the Magdalena River in Colombia with varying degree of connectivity to the River and with different responses to climate events (i.e., extreme floods and droughts). Historical limnological changes were identified through a multiproxy‐based reconstruction including diatoms, sedimentation, and sediment geochemistry, while historical climatic changes were derived from the application of the Standardised Precipitation‐Evapotranspiration Index. The main gradients in climatic and limnological change were assessed via multivariate analysis and generalized additive models. The reconstruction of the more isolated San Juana Lake spanned the last c. 500 years. Between c. 1,620 and 1,750 CE, riverine‐flooded conditions prevailed as indicated by high detrital input, reductive conditions, and dominance of planktonic diatoms. Since the early 1800s, the riverine meander became disconnected, conveying into a marsh‐like environment rich in aerophil diatoms and organic matter. The current lake was then formed around the mid‐1960s with a diverse lake diatom flora including benthic and planktonic diatoms, and more oxygenated waters under a gradual increase in sedimentation and nutrients. The reconstruction for Barbacoas Lake, a waterbody directly connected to the Magdalena River, spanned the last 60 years and showed alternating riverine–wetland–lake conditions in response to varying ENSO conditions. Wet periods were dominated by planktonic and benthic diatoms, while aerophil diatom species prevailed during dry periods; during the two intense ENSO periods of 1987 and 1992, the lake almost desiccated and sedimentation rates spiked. A gradual increase in sedimentation rates post‐2000 suggests that other factors rather than climate are also influencing sediment deposition in the lake. We propose that hydrological connectivity to the Magdalena River is a main factor controlling lake long‐term responses to human pressures, where highly connected lakes respond more acutely to ENSO events while isolated lakes are more sensitive to local land‐use changes.     

Continental‐scale determinants of population trends in European amphibians and reptiles

The continuous decline of biodiversity is determined by the complex and joint effects of multiple environmental drivers. Still, a large part of past global change studies reporting and explaining biodiversity trends have focused on a single driver. Therefore, we are often unable to attribute biodiversity changes to different drivers, since a multivariable design is required to disentangle joint effects and interactions. In this work, we used a meta‐regression within a Bayesian framework to analyze 843 time series of population abundance from 17 European amphibian and reptile species over the last 45 years. We investigated the relative effects of climate change, alien species, habitat availability, and habitat change in driving trends of population abundance over time, and evaluated how the importance of these factors differs across species. A large number of populations (54%) declined, but differences between species were strong, with some species showing positive trends. Populations declined more often in areas with a high number of alien species, and in areas where climate change has caused loss of suitability. Habitat features showed small variation over the last 25 years, with an average loss of suitable habitat of 0.1%/year per population. Still, a strong interaction between habitat availability and the richness of alien species indicated that the negative impact of alien species was particularly strong for populations living in landscapes with less suitable habitat. Furthermore, when excluding the two commonest species, habitat loss was the main correlate of negative population trends for the remaining species. By analyzing trends for multiple species across a broad spatial scale, we identify alien species, climate change, and habitat changes as the major drivers of European amphibian and reptile decline.     

Responses of soil carbon sequestration to climate‐smart agriculture practices: A meta‐analysis

Climate‐smart agriculture (CSA) management practices (e.g., conservation tillage, cover crops, and biochar applications) have been widely adopted to enhance soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while ensuring crop productivity. However, current measurements regarding the influences of CSA management practices on SOC sequestration diverge widely, making it difficult to derive conclusions about individual and combined CSA management effects and bringing large uncertainties in quantifying the potential of the agricultural sector to mitigate climate change. We conducted a meta‐analysis of 3,049 paired measurements from 417 peer‐reviewed articles to examine the effects of three common CSA management practices on SOC sequestration as well as the environmental controlling factors. We found that, on average, biochar applications represented the most effective approach for increasing SOC content (39%), followed by cover crops (6%) and conservation tillage (5%). Further analysis suggested that the effects of CSA management practices were more pronounced in areas with relatively warmer climates or lower nitrogen fertilizer inputs. Our meta‐analysis demonstrated that, through adopting CSA practices, cropland could be an improved carbon sink. We also highlight the importance of considering local environmental factors (e.g., climate and soil conditions and their combination with other management practices) in identifying appropriate CSA practices for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions while ensuring crop productivity.     

Can warm climate‐related structure of littoral predator assemblies weaken the clear water state in shallow lakes?

Shallow lakes, the most abundant lake type in the world, are very sensitive to climatic changes. The structure and functioning of shallow lakes are greatly impacted by submerged plants, and these may be affected by climate warming in various, contrasting, ways. Following a space‐for‐time substitution approach, we aimed to analyse the role of aquatic (submerged and free‐floating) plants in shallow lakes under warm climates. We introduced artificial submerged and free‐floating plant beds in five comparable lakes located in the temperate zone (Denmark, 55–57 °N) and in the subtropical zone (Uruguay, 30–35 °S), with the aim to study the structure and dynamics of the main associated communities. Regardless of differences in environmental variables, such as area, water transparency and nutrient status, we found consistent patterns in littoral community dynamics and structure (i.e. densities and composition of fish, zooplankton, macroinvertebrates, and periphyton) within, but substantial differences between, the two regions. Subtropical fish communities within the macrophyte beds exhibited higher diversity, higher density, smaller size, lower relative abundance of potentially piscivores, and a preference for submerged plants, compared with otherwise similar temperate lakes. By contrast, macroinvertebrates and cladocerans had higher taxon richness and densities, and periphyton higher biomass, in the temperate lakes. Several indicators suggest that the fish predation pressure was much stronger among the plants in the subtropical lakes. The antipredator behaviour of cladocerans also differed significantly between climate zones. Submerged and free‐floating plants exerted different effects on the spatial distribution of the main communities, the effects differing between the climate zones. In the temperate lakes, submerged plants promoted trophic interactions with potentially positive cascading effects on water transparency, in contrast to the free‐floating plants, and in strong contrast to the findings in the subtropical lakes. The higher impact of fish may result in higher sensitivity of warm lakes to external changes (e.g. increase in nutrient loading or water level changes). The current process of warming, particularly in temperate lakes, may entail an increased sensitivity to eutrophication, and a threat to the high diversity, clear water state.     

Lifeform indicators reveal large‐scale shifts in plankton across the North‐West European shelf

Increasing direct human pressures on the marine environment, coupled with climate‐driven changes, is a concern to marine ecosystems globally. This requires the development and monitoring of ecosystem indicators for effective management and adaptation planning. Plankton lifeforms (broad functional groups) are sensitive indicators of marine environmental change and can provide a simplified view of plankton biodiversity, building an understanding of change in lower trophic levels. Here, we visualize regional‐scale multi‐decadal trends in six key plankton lifeforms as well as their correlative relationships with sea surface temperature (SST). For the first time, we collate trends across multiple disparate surveys, comparing the spatially and temporally extensive Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey (offshore) with multiple long‐term fixed station‐based time‐series (inshore) from around the UK coastline. These analyses of plankton lifeforms showed profound long‐term changes, which were coherent across large spatial scales. For example, ‘diatom’ and ‘meroplankton’ lifeforms showed strong alignment between surveys and coherent regional‐scale trends, with the 1998–2017 decadal average abundance of meroplankton being 2.3 times that of 1958–1967 for CPR samples in the North Sea. This major, shelf‐wide increase in meroplankton correlated with increasing SSTs, and contrasted with a general decrease in holoplankton (dominated by small copepods), indicating a changing balance of benthic and pelagic fauna. Likewise, inshore‐offshore gradients in dinoflagellate trends, with contemporary increases inshore contrasting with multi‐decadal decreases offshore (approx. 75% lower decadal mean abundance), urgently require the identification of causal mechanisms. Our lifeform approach allows the collation of many different data types and time‐series across the NW European shelf, providing a crucial evidence base for informing ecosystem‐based management, and the development of regional adaptation plans.     

Large‐scale patterns in summer diffusive CH4 fluxes across boreal lakes,and contribution to diffusive C emissions

Lakes are a major component of boreal landscapes, and whereas lake CO₂ emissions are recognized as a major component of regional C budgets, there is still much uncertainty associated to lake CH₄ fluxes. Here, we present a large‐scale study of the magnitude and regulation of boreal lake summer diffusive CH₄ fluxes, and their contribution to total lake carbon (C) emissions, based on in situ measurements of concentration and fluxes of CH₄ and CO₂ in 224 lakes across a wide range of lake type and environmental gradients in Québec. The diffusive CH₄ flux was highly variable (mean 11.6 ± 26.4 SD mg m^?2 d^?1), and it was positively correlated with temperature and lake nutrient status, and negatively correlated with lake area and colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM). The relationship between CH₄ and CO₂ concentrations fluxes was weak, suggesting major differences in their respective sources and/or regulation. For example, increasing water temperature leads to higher CH₄ flux but does not significantly affect CO₂ flux, whereas increasing CDOM concentration leads to higher CO₂ flux but lower CH₄ flux. CH₄ contributed to 8 ± 23% to the total lake C emissions (CH₄ + CO₂), but 18 ± 25% to the total flux in terms of atmospheric warming potential, expressed as CO₂‐equivalents. The incorporation of ebullition and plant‐mediated CH₄ fluxes would further increase the importance of lake CH₄. The average Q₁₀ of CH₄ flux was 3.7, once other covarying factors were accounted for, but this apparent Q₁₀ varied with lake morphometry and was higher for shallow lakes. We conclude that global climate change and the resulting shifts in temperature will strongly influence lake CH₄ fluxes across the boreal biome, but these climate effects may be altered by regional patterns in lake morphometry, nutrient status, and browning.     

Potential source and sink locations for climate‐driven species range shifts in Europe since the Last Glacial Maximum

Aim To identify potential source and sink locations for climate‐driven species range shifts in Europe since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Location Europe. Methods We developed a new approach combining past‐climate simulations with the concept of analogous climate space. Our index gives a continuous measure of the potential of a location to have acted as a source or a sink for species that have shifted their ranges since the LGM. High glacial source potential is indicated by LGM climatic conditions that are widespread now; high post‐glacial sink potential is indicated by current climatic conditions that were widespread at the LGM. The degree of isolation of source and sink areas was calculated as the median distance to areas with analogous climate conditions. Results We identified areas of high glacial source potential in the previously recognized refugial areas in the southern European peninsulas, but also in large areas in central‐western Europe. The most climatically isolated source areas were located in northern Spain, in north‐western Europe and in eastern Turkey. From here species would have had to cover substantial distances to find current climate conditions analogous to LGM conditions of these areas. Areas with high post‐glacial sink potential were mainly located in Fennoscandia and in central and south‐eastern Europe. Some of the most isolated sink areas were located in the Spanish highlands and around the Baltic Sea. Main conclusions Our species‐independent approach successfully identified previously recognized glacial refugial areas with high source potential for species range shifts in southern Europe and in addition highlighted other potential source areas in central Europe. This study offers new insights into how the distribution of past and current climatic conditions may have influenced past species range shifts and current large‐scale biodiversity patterns.     

Climate change and large‐scale human population collapses in the pre‐industrial era

Aim It has long been assumed that deteriorating climate (cooling and warming above the norm) could shrink the carrying capacity of agrarian lands, depriving the human population of sufficient food. Population collapses (i.e. negative population growth) follow. However, this human–ecological relationship has rarely been verified scientifically, and evidence of warming‐caused disaster has never been found. This research sought to explore quantitatively the temporal pattern, spatial pattern and triggers of population collapses in relation to climate change at the global scale over 1100 years. Location Various countries/regions in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) during the pre‐industrial era. Methods We performed time‐series analysis to examine the association between temperature change and country‐wide/region‐wide population collapses in different climatic zones. All of the known population collapse incidents in the NH in the period ce 800–1900 were included in our data analysis. Results Nearly 90% of population collapses in various NH countries/regions occurred during periods of climate deterioration characterized by shrinking carrying capacity of the land. In addition, we found that cooling dampened the human ecosystem and brought about 80% of the collapses in warmer humid, cooler humid and dry zones, while warming adversely affected the ecosystems in dry and tropical humid zones. All of the population collapses and growth declines in periods of warm climate occurred in dry and tropical humid zones. Malthusian checks (famines, wars and epidemics) were the dominant triggers of population collapses, which peaked dramatically when climate deteriorated. Main conclusions Global demographic catastrophes and most population collapse incidents occurred in periods with great climate change, owing to overpopulation caused by diminished carrying capacity of the land and the resultant outbreak of Malthusian checks. Impacts of cooling or warming on land carrying capacity varied geographically, as a result of the diversified ecosystems in different parts of the Earth. The observed climate–population synchrony challenges Malthusian theory and demonstrates that it is not population growth alone but climate‐induced subsistence shortage and population growth working synergistically, that cause large‐scale human population collapses on the long‐term scale.     

Effects of weather‐related episodic events in lakes: an analysis based on high‐frequency data

1. Weather‐related episodic events are typically unpredictable, and their duration is often short. Abiotic and biological responses are often missed in routine monitoring. These responses are, however, now of particular relevance given projected changes in extreme weather conditions. 2. We present data from high‐frequency monitoring stations from lakes in Europe, North America and Asia that illustrate two classes of abiotic effects of weather events: (i) generally short‐lived effects of storms on lake thermal structure and (ii) the more prolonged effects of high rainfall events on dissolved organic matter levels and water clarity. We further relate these abiotic effects to changes in dissolved oxygen or in chlorophyll a levels. 3. Three differing causes for weather‐related decreases in surface dissolved oxygen levels were observed: (i) entrainment of anoxic water from depth, (ii) reduction in primary productivity and (iii) increased mineralisation of organic carbon delivered from the catchment. 4. The duration of in‐lake effects tended to be longer for events driven by weather conditions with a longer return period, that is, conditions that were relatively more severe and less frequent at a site. While the susceptibility of lakes to change was related in part to the severity of the meteorological drivers, the impacts also depended on site‐specific factors in some cases. 5. The availability of high‐frequency data at these sites provided insight into the capacity of the lakes to absorb current and future pressures. Several of the changes we observed, including increases in carbon availability, decreases in photosynthetically active radiation and increased disturbance, have the capacity to shift lakes towards an increased degree of heterotrophy. The magnitude and direction of any such change will, however, also depend on the magnitude and direction of climate change for a given location and on lake and catchment characteristics.     

Microbial eukaryote plankton communities of high‐mountain lakes from three continents exhibit strong biogeographic patterns

Microbial eukaryotes hold a key role in aquatic ecosystem functioning. Yet, their diversity in freshwater lakes, particularly in high‐mountain lakes, is relatively unknown compared with the marine environment. Low nutrient availability, low water temperature and high ultraviolet radiation make most high‐mountain lakes extremely challenging habitats for life and require specific molecular and physiological adaptations. We therefore expected that these ecosystems support a plankton diversity that differs notably from other freshwater lakes. In addition, we hypothesized that the communities under study exhibit geographic structuring. Our rationale was that geographic dispersal of small‐sized eukaryotes in high‐mountain lakes over continental distances seems difficult. We analysed hypervariable V4 fragments of the SSU rRNA gene to compare the genetic microbial eukaryote diversity in high‐mountain lakes located in the European Alps, the Chilean Altiplano and the Ethiopian Bale Mountains. Microbial eukaryotes were not globally distributed corroborating patterns found for bacteria, multicellular animals and plants. Instead, the plankton community composition emerged as a highly specific fingerprint of a geographic region even on higher taxonomic levels. The intraregional heterogeneity of the investigated lakes was mirrored in shifts in microbial eukaryote community structure, which, however, was much less pronounced compared with interregional beta‐diversity. Statistical analyses revealed that on a regional scale, environmental factors are strong predictors for plankton community structures in high‐mountain lakes. While on long‐distance scales (>10 000 km), isolation by distance is the most plausible scenario, on intermediate scales (up to 6000 km), both contemporary environmental factors and historical contingencies interact to shift plankton community structures.     

Precipitation and winter temperature predict long‐term range‐scale abundance changes in Western North American birds

Predicting biodiversity responses to climate change remains a difficult challenge, especially in climatically complex regions where precipitation is a limiting factor. Though statistical climatic envelope models are frequently used to project future scenarios for species distributions under climate change, these models are rarely tested using empirical data. We used long‐term data on bird distributions and abundance covering five states in the western US and in the Canadian province of British Columbia to test the capacity of statistical models to predict temporal changes in bird populations over a 32‐year period. Using boosted regression trees, we built presence‐absence and abundance models that related the presence and abundance of 132 bird species to spatial variation in climatic conditions. Presence/absence models built using 1970–1974 data forecast the distributions of the majority of species in the later time period, 1998–2002 (mean AUC = 0.79 ± 0.01). Hindcast models performed equivalently (mean AUC = 0.82 ± 0.01). Correlations between observed and predicted abundances were also statistically significant for most species (forecast mean Spearman′s ρ = 0.34 ± 0.02, hindcast = 0.39 ± 0.02). The most stringent test is to test predicted changes in geographic patterns through time. Observed changes in abundance patterns were significantly positively correlated with those predicted for 59% of species (mean Spearman′s ρ = 0.28 ± 0.02, across all species). Three precipitation variables (for the wettest month, breeding season, and driest month) and minimum temperature of the coldest month were the most important predictors of bird distributions and abundances in this region, and hence of abundance changes through time. Our results suggest that models describing associations between climatic variables and abundance patterns can predict changes through time for some species, and that changes in precipitation and winter temperature appear to have already driven shifts in the geographic patterns of abundance of bird populations in western North America.     

Increased risk of cyanobacterial blooms in northern high‐latitude lakes through climate warming and phosphorus enrichment

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