Genetic and plastic responses of a northern mammal to climate change

Climate change is predicted to be most severe in northern regions and there has been much interest in to what extent organisms can cope with these changes through phenotypic plasticity or microevolutionary processes. A red squirrel population in the southwest Yukon, Canada, faced with increasing spring temperatures and food supply has advanced the timing of breeding by 18 days over the last 10 years (6 days per generation). Longitudinal analysis of females breeding in multiple years suggests that much of this change in parturition date can be explained by a plastic response to increased food abundance (3.7 days per generation). Significant changes in breeding values (0.8 days per generation), were in concordance with predictions from the breeder's equation (0.6 days per generation), and indicated that an evolutionary response to strong selection favouring earlier breeders also contributed to the observed advancement of this heritable trait. The timing of breeding in this population of squirrels, therefore, has advanced as a result of both phenotypic changes within generations, and genetic changes among generations in response to a rapidly changing environment.     

The microevolutionary consequences of climate change

Species may respond to climate change by shifting in abundance and distribution, by going extinct, or by evolving. Predicting which will occur is difficult. Climate change may lead to alterations in both abiotic and biotic components of selection. Although there is evidence that abundant genetic variation exists in some species which can respond to such selection, other species seem to have little genetic variation for key characters determining distribution and abundance. Moreover, climate change can affect nonselective components of microevolution, such as genetic variances and covariances, and the magnitudes of drift, mutation and gene flow. There is almost no species for which we know enough relevant ecology, physiology and genetics to predict its evolutionary response to climate change.     

Bioenergetic prediction of climate change impacts on northern mammals

Climate change will likely alter the distribution and abundanceof northern mammals through a combination of direct, abioticeffects (e.g., changes in temperature and precipitation) andindirect, biotic effects (e.g., changes in the abundance ofresources, competitors, and predators). Bioenergetic approachesare ideally suited to predicting the impacts of climate changebecause individual energy budgets integrate biotic and abioticinfluences, and translate individual function into populationand community outcomes. In this review, we illustrate how bioenergeticscan be used to predict the regional biodiversity, species rangelimits, and community trophic organization of mammals underfuture climate scenarios. Although reliable prediction of climatechange impacts for particular species requires better data andtheory on the physiological ecology of northern mammals, tworobust hypotheses emerge from the bioenergetic approaches presentedhere. First, the impacts of climate change in northern regionswill be shaped by the appearance of new species at least asmuch as by the disappearance of current species. Second, seasonallyinactive mammal species (e.g., hibernators), which are largelyabsent from the Canadian arctic at present, should undergo substantialincreases in abundance and distribution in response to climatechange, probably at the expense of continuously active mammalsalready present in the arctic.     

The changing solar ultraviolet climate and the ecological consequences for higher plants

There is compelling evidence that a general erosion of the global ozone layer is occurring. Since ozone in the stratosphere absorbs much of the shortwave solar ultraviolet radiation (UV-B), diminished ozone means that more UV-B of a very specific wavelength composition will be received at the earth's surface. Evaluating the implications for vegetation involves consideration of the wavelength specificity of biological photochemical reactions and their sensitivity to the extant and future solar spectrum. Recent research suggests the occurrence of direct damaging reactions and of indirect morphological and chemical responses with implications at the community and ecosystem levels.     

Testing for the effects and consequences of mid paleogene climate change on insect herbivory

Background

The Eocene, a time of fluctuating environmental change and biome evolution, was generally driven by exceptionally warm temperatures. The Messel (47.8 Ma) and Eckfeld (44.3 Ma) deposits offer a rare opportunity to take a census of two, deep-time ecosystems occurring during a greenhouse system. An understanding of the long-term consequences of extreme warming and cooling events during this interval, particularly on angiosperms and insects that dominate terrestrial biodiversity, can provide insights into the biotic consequences of current global climatic warming.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We compare insect-feeding damage within two middle Eocene fossil floras, Messel and Eckfeld, in Germany. From these small lake deposits, we studied 16,082 angiosperm leaves and scored each specimen for the presence or absence of 89 distinctive and diagnosable insect damage types (DTs), each of which was allocated to a major functional feeding group, including four varieties of external foliage feeding, piercing- and-sucking, leaf mining, galling, seed predation, and oviposition. Methods used for treatment of presence–absence data included general linear models and standard univariate, bivariate and multivariate statistical techniques.

Conclusions/Significance

Our results show an unexpectedly high diversity and level of insect feeding than comparable, penecontemporaneous floras from North and South America. In addition, we found a higher level of herbivory on evergreen, rather than deciduous taxa at Messel. This pattern is explained by a ca. 2.5-fold increase in atmospheric CO₂ that overwhelmed evergreen antiherbivore defenses, subsequently lessened during the more ameliorated levels of Eckfeld times. These patterns reveal important, previously undocumented features of plant-host and insect-herbivore diversification during the European mid Eocene.     

Extinction of water plants in the Hula Valley: Evidence for climate change

We describe two events of water plant extinction in the Hula Valley, northern Israel: the ancient, natural extinction of 3 out of 14 extinct species at Gesher Benot Ya‘aqov, which occurred some 800-700 k.yr., and an anthropogenic, near contemporary extinction of seven species in the artificial drainage of the Hula Lake in the 1950s. We conclude that the considerable fraction of water plants that disappeared from the Hula Valley in the Early-Middle Pleistocene was the result of habitat desiccation and not global warming. Thus, there is evidence that the hominins who lived in the Hula Valley inhabited a comparatively dry place. The disappearance of water plant species was partially the result of reduced seed dispersal by birds (ornitochory) as a result of the shrinkage of water bodies and their number along the Rift Valley. We suggest that the disappearance of a group of rare, local water plants can be used as an indicator of climate drying and impacts on the local vegetation.     

Potential consequences of climate change for primary production and fish production in large marine ecosystems

Existing methods to predict the effects of climate change on the biomass and production of marine communities are predicated on modelling the interactions and dynamics of individual species, a very challenging approach when interactions and distributions are changing and little is known about the ecological mechanisms driving the responses of many species. An informative parallel approach is to develop size-based methods. These capture the properties of food webs that describe energy flux and production at a particular size, independent of species'' ecology. We couple a physical–biogeochemical model with a dynamic, size-based food web model to predict the future effects of climate change on fish biomass and production in 11 large regional shelf seas, with and without fishing effects. Changes in potential fish production are shown to most strongly mirror changes in phytoplankton production. We project declines of 30–60% in potential fish production across some important areas of tropical shelf and upwelling seas, most notably in the eastern Indo-Pacific, the northern Humboldt and the North Canary Current. Conversely, in some areas of the high latitude shelf seas, the production of pelagic predators was projected to increase by 28–89%.     

Avian population consequences of climate change are most severe for long-distance migrants in seasonal habitats

One consequence of climate change is an increasing mismatch between timing of food requirements and food availability. Such a mismatch is primarily expected in avian long-distance migrants because of their complex annual cycle, and in habitats with a seasonal food peak. Here we show that insectivorous long-distance migrant species in The Netherlands declined strongly (1984–2004) in forests, a habitat characterized by a short spring food peak, but that they did not decline in less seasonal marshes. Also, within generalist long-distance migrant species, populations declined more strongly in forests than in marshes. Forest-inhabiting migrant species arriving latest in spring declined most sharply, probably because their mismatch with the peak in food supply is greatest. Residents and short-distance migrants had non-declining populations in both habitats, suggesting that habitat quality did not deteriorate. Habitat-related differences in trends were most probably caused by climate change because at a European scale, long-distance migrants in forests declined more severely in western Europe, where springs have become considerably warmer, when compared with northern Europe, where temperatures during spring arrival and breeding have increased less. Our results suggest that trophic mismatches may have become a major cause for population declines in long-distance migrants in highly seasonal habitats.     

Effects of climate change on parasitic plants: the root hemiparasiticOrobanchaceae

Climate change may affect hemisparasiticOrobanchaceae (ex-Scrophulariaceae) both directly through impacts on hemiparasite physiology and indirectly through impacts on host plants. This dual action suggests particular sensitivity of the parasite to climate change and any associated impacts on hosts and other members of the community. While little research has addressed the responses of parasitic plants to climate change in natural environments, impacts are predicted from controlled environment studies together with a knowledge of the key ecophysiological traits of hemiparasiticOrobanchaceae, in particular ofStriga species, which are important weeds in semi-arid tropical agro-ecosystems, andRhinanthus species, which can be important components of (principally) grassland communities in the northern temperate zone. The main mode of important components of (principally) grassland communities in the northern temperate zone. The main mode of action of both elevated CO₂ and warming will be through changes in photosynthesis and stomatal functioning. Enhanced photosynthesis of the hemiparasite and host will increase parasite carbon gains but may also increase the demand for host mineral nutrients. Mineral nutrition may, therefore, mediate the impacts of climate change on host-parasite associations. The relative insensitivity of hemiparasite stomata to elevated CO₂ suggests that high stomatal conductances may be maintained and thus solute uptake may become limited by soil drying driven by higher rates of evapotranspiration and reduced precipitation. Climate change impacts on host-parasite interactions at the individual level will ultimately affect hemiparasite impacts at the community level. Community impacts will be greatest where climate change considerably favours hemiparasite populations or, conversely, causes them to disappear from communities where they were formerly abundant. Impacts will further be mediated by climate impacts on hosts, and the natural enemies of hosts and parasites alike. Further, the wide host range of many root hemiparasitic plants may facilitate migration of their populations through new communities under a changing climate.     

Phenological responses of plants to climate change in an urban environment

Global climate change is likely to alter the phenological patterns of plants due to the controlling effects of climate on plant ontogeny, especially in an urbanized environment. We studied relationships between various phenophases (i.e., seasonal biological events) and interannual variations of air temperature in three woody plant species (Prunus davidiana, Hibiscus syriacus, and Cercis chinensis) in the Beijing Metropolis, China, based on phenological data for the period 1962–2004 and meteorological data for the period 1951–2004. Analysis of phenology and climate data indicated significant changes in spring and autumn phenophases and temperatures. Changes in phenophases were observed for all the three species, consistent with patterns of rising air temperatures in the Beijing Metropolis. The changing phenology in the three plant species was reflected mainly as advances of the spring phenophases and delays in the autumn phenophases, but with strong variations among species and phenophases in response to different temperature indices. Most phenophases (both spring and autumn phenophases) had significant relationships with temperatures of the preceding months. There existed large inter- and intra-specific variations, however, in the responses of phenology to climate change. It is clear that the urban heat island effect from 1978 onwards is a dominant cause of the observed phenological changes. Differences in phenological responses to climate change may cause uncertain ecological consequences, with implications for ecosystem stability and function in urban environments.     

Short- and long-term population dynamical consequences of asymmetric climate change in black grouse

Temporal asymmetry in patterns of regional climate change may jeopardize the match between the proximate and ultimate cues of the timing of breeding. The consequences on short- and long-term population dynamics and trends as well as the underlying mechanisms are, however, often unknown. Using long-term data from Finland, we demonstrate that black grouse (Tetrao tetrix) have responded to spring warming by advancing both egg-laying and hatching. However, early summer (the time of hatching) has not advanced, and chicks have to face colder post-hatching conditions. Demonstrating that these conditions are critical to post-hatching survival, we show that chicks are increasingly suffering higher mortality because they hatch too early. Consequently, breeding success and population size has severely declined over the past four decades. Finally, we modelled the impact of this particular climate change scenario on population dynamics and show that the mismatch can further explain the observed collapse of cyclic fluctuations. Because the evolutionary response of grouse is lagging behind the novel selective pressures, seasonally asymmetric climate change is likely to constitute an important determinant of future short- and long-term changes in the dynamics of black grouse populations.     

Predicting population consequences of ocean climate change for an ecosystem sentinel,the seabird Cassin's auklet

Forecasting the ecological effects of climate change on marine species is critical for informing greenhouse gas mitigation targets and developing marine conservation strategies that remain effective and increase species' resilience under changing climate conditions. Highly productive coastal upwelling systems are predicted to experience substantial effects from climate change, making them priorities for ecological forecasting. We used a population modeling approach to examine the consequences of ocean climate change in the California Current upwelling ecosystem on the population growth rate of the planktivorous seabird Cassin's auklet (Ptychoramphus aleuticus), a demographically sensitive indicator of marine climate change. We use future climate projections for sea surface temperature and upwelling intensity from a regional climate model to forecast changes in the population growth rate of the auklet population at the important Farallon Island colony in central California. Our study projected that the auklet population growth rate will experience an absolute decline of 11–45% by the end of the century, placing this population on a trajectory toward extinction. In addition, future changes in upwelling intensity and timing of peak upwelling are likely to vary across auklet foraging regions in the California Current Ecosystem (CCE), producing a mosaic of climate conditions and ecological impacts across the auklet range. Overall, the Farallon Island Cassin's auklet population has been declining during recent decades, and ocean climate change in this century under a mid‐level emissions scenario is projected to accelerate this decline, leading toward population extinction. Because our study species has proven to be a sensitive indicator of oceanographic conditions in the CCE and a powerful predictor of the abundance of other important predators (i.e. salmon), the significant impacts we predicted for the Cassin's auklet provide insights into the consequences that ocean climate change may have for other plankton predators in this system.     

Will northern fish populations be in hot water because of climate change?

Predicted increases in water temperature in response to climate change will have large implications for aquatic ecosystems, such as altering thermal habitat and potential range expansion of fish species. Warmwater fish species, such as smallmouth bass, Micropterus dolomieu , may have access to additional favourable thermal habitat under increased surface-water temperatures, thereby shifting the northern limit of the distribution of the species further north in Canada and potentially negatively impacting native fish communities. We assembled a database of summer surface-water temperatures for over 13 000 lakes across Canada. The database consists of lakes with a variety of physical, chemical and biological properties. We used general linear models to develop a nation-wide maximum lake surface-water temperature model. The model was extended to predict surface-water temperatures suitable to smallmouth bass and under climate-change scenarios. Air temperature, latitude, longitude and sampling time were good predictors of present-day maximum surface-water temperature. We predicted lake surface-water temperatures for July 2100 using three climate-change scenarios. Water temperatures were predicted to increase by as much as 18 °C by 2100, with the greatest increase in northern Canada. Lakes with maximum surface-water temperatures suitable for smallmouth bass populations were spatially identified. Under several climate-change scenarios, we were able to identify lakes that will contain suitable thermal habitat and, therefore, are vulnerable to invasion by smallmouth bass in 2100. This included lakes in the Arctic that were predicted to have suitable thermal habitat by 2100.     

A demographic approach to study effects of climate change in desert plants

Desert species respond strongly to infrequent, intense pulses of precipitation. Consequently, indigenous flora has developed a rich repertoire of life-history strategies to deal with fluctuations in resource availability. Examinations of how future climate change will affect the biota often forecast negative impacts, but these—usually correlative—approaches overlook precipitation variation because they are based on averages. Here, we provide an overview of how variable precipitation affects perennial and annual desert plants, and then implement an innovative, mechanistic approach to examine the effects of precipitation on populations of two desert plant species. This approach couples robust climatic projections, including variable precipitation, with stochastic, stage-structured models constructed from long-term demographic datasets of the short-lived Cryptantha flava in the Colorado Plateau Desert (USA) and the annual Carrichtera annua in the Negev Desert (Israel). Our results highlight these populations'' potential to buffer future stochastic precipitation. Population growth rates in both species increased under future conditions: wetter, longer growing seasons for Cryptantha and drier years for Carrichtera. We determined that such changes are primarily due to survival and size changes for Cryptantha and the role of seed bank for Carrichtera. Our work suggests that desert plants, and thus the resources they provide, might be more resilient to climate change than previously thought.     

Preliminary global assessment of terrestrial biodiversity consequences of sea-level rise mediated by climate change

Considerable attention has focused on the climatic effects of global climate change on biodiversity, but few analyses and no broad assessments have evaluated effects of sea-level rise on biodiversity. Taking advantage of new maps of marine intrusion under scenarios of 1 and 6 m sea-level rise, we calculated areal losses for all terrestrial ecoregions globally, with areal losses for particular ecoregions ranging from nil to complete. Marine intrusion is a global phenomenon, but its effects are most prominent in Southeast Asia and nearby islands, eastern North America, northeastern South America, and western Alaska. Making assumptions regarding faunal responses to reduced distributional areas of species endemic to ecoregions, we estimated likely numbers of extinctions caused by sea-level rise, and found that marine-intrusion-caused extinctions of narrow endemics are likely to be most prominent in northeastern South America, although anticipated extinctions in smaller numbers are scattered worldwide. This assessment serves as a complement to recent estimates of losses owing to changing climatic conditions, considering a dimension of biodiversity consequences of climate change that has not previously been taken into account.