《生物多样性公约》海洋生物多样性议题的 谈判焦点、影响及我国对策

海洋和沿海生物多样性保护和可持续利用等问题是《生物多样性公约》谈判的重要领域。本文梳理了历次缔约方大会的谈判进程, 认为主要焦点议题包括: (1)应对人类活动和全球气候变化对海洋和沿海生物多样性的影响; (2)海洋和沿海生物多样性保护和可持续利用的工具; (3)海洋保护区及具有重要生态或生物学意义的海域。这些议题的讨论将影响包括全球海洋保护区建设在内的海洋生物多样性保护进程, 也将影响全球海洋生物多样性保护国际制度的建设, 以及沿海国家的社会经济。我国应加强履约谈判的技术支持, 加快涉海相关问题研究, 积极参与相关国际谈判, 并大力宣传我国经验。     

建立生物多样性保护相关国际公约的国家履约协同战略

目前国际层面已有多个与生物多样性保护有关的多边公约(包括条约和协定), 如《生物多样性公约》、《濒危动植物种国际贸易公约》、《湿地公约》等。本文基于相关国际公约的既有战略目标, 分析了这些战略目标与保护生物多样性之间的关系。这些公约的实施在国际层面是由联合国的不同机构负责, 在国家层次也是由不同的政府部门来牵头。在中国, 生物多样性相关公约的履行机构主要有环境保护、林业、农业等多个政府主管部门。我国现有履约机制的模式是针对某一公约建立一个多部门的履约协调委员会, 并在牵头部门建立一个行政办事机构。履约工作中常见的问题有: 各履约机构在参与公约国际谈判和开展国内履约工作中因缺少沟通和协调, 造成对外政策不一致、对内工作重复的现象; 部门间缺少信息共享机制, 甚至相互不提供数据。最后, 作者建议在国家层次上建立生物多样性国际履约的协同战略, 包括为协调生物多样性议题的国际谈判立场而建立协同工作组, 为增强国家履约效率而综合各部门履约行动, 以及建立国家生物多样性信息交换机制等。     

《联合国气候变化框架公约》与《生物多样性公约》的关系

气候变化和生物多样性损失是人类面临的两个严峻的全球性环境挑战, 有关应对气候变化和生物多样性保护国际公约的协作在全球范围内也越来越受重视。本文系统梳理了《联合国气候变化框架公约》下保护生物多样性和《生物多样性公约》下应对气候变化的发展脉络, 探讨了两公约下各缔约方针对相关议题的谈判立场及未来走向, 并对两公约进行了综合评价。《联合国气候变化框架公约》下涉及生物多样性保护的焦点议题主要有土地利用、土地利用变化和林业(Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry, LULUCF)、减少毁林和森林退化的碳排放机制(Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation, REDD)及损失和损害国际机制, 《生物多样性公约》下涉及应对气候变化的焦点议题主要有协同增效、减少毁林和森林退化的碳排放机制(REDD)和地球工程及相关问题。本文最后还就我国应对气候变化和生物多样性国际谈判及国内履约提出了建议: (1)整合谈判团队力量, 促进两公约协同增效; (2)做好交叉议题的研判和谈判预案, 主动引领谈判进程; (3)为《联合国气候变化框架公约》谈判提供损失和损害风险评估数据; (4)加强《生物多样性公约》下地球工程议题的科学研究与国际交流。     

国际法视野下生物多样性和气候变化的协同治理

生物多样性丧失和气候变化是全球面临的共同挑战。生物多样性丧失加剧了气候变暖进程,同时,气候变化也加剧生物多样性丧失,二者之间是耦合关系,应当将应对气候变化和保护生物多样性视为相辅相成的两个目标,实现生物多样性与气候变化的协同治理。《联合国气候变化框架公约》(United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, UNFCCC)和联合国《生物多样性公约》(Convention on Biological Diversity, CBD)都注意到生物多样性和气候变化之间的重要联系,二者存在相互交叉的议题。故本文从国际公约的角度出发,梳理了UNFCCC中生物多样性相关议题的谈判焦点与发展、CBD中气候变化相关议题的谈判焦点与发展以及二者履约机制的协同现状;总结出国际法视野下生物多样性与气候变化协同治理所面临的困难:(1) UNFCCC对生物多样性议题的回应不足;(2) CBD对气候变化议题单向回应;(3) UNFCCC与CBD履约机制分割显著;(4)防范生物多样性丧失与应对气候变化的制度措施之间的冲突。基于此,本文以整体系统观为理论基石,提...     

《生物多样性公约》研究知识图谱: 基于CiteSpace的文献计量分析

《生物多样性公约》(简称《公约》)作为保护地球生物资源的国际性公约, 与生态文明建设、构建人类命运共同体息息相关。对《公约》进行不同角度的研究, 分析当前生物多样性保护进展中的热点与趋势能为科学制定“2020年后框架”提供参考, 也能为推动生态文明建设提供智力支持。本文以CNKI中的论文为研究对象, 通过CiteSpace软件构建知识图谱, 对《公约》研究的发文量、研究机构、作者、研究热点等进行分析, 探讨中国当前对《公约》领域的研究进展。结果显示: (1)自1992年来, 对《公约》研究的发文呈波浪形上升趋势; (2)对《公约》进行研究的学者及机构众多; (3)关键词词频分析显示生物多样性公约、生物多样性、遗传资源、惠益分享是学者关注的热点, 同时生物多样性公约、生物多样性、知识产权、全球生物多样性、事先知情同意、海洋命运共同体形成聚类知识图谱; (4)知识图谱显示研究始终围绕保护生物多样性、持续利用、遗传资源的获取与惠益分享等《公约》三大目标展开, 同时关键词突现分析显示当前热点已扩展到海洋、公海生物多样性保护等国际热点议题; (5)随着COP 15的召开, 《公约》研究将面临新的机遇, 三大目标的平衡推进是履约的重要议题, 跨机构合作和多学科深度融合是拓宽研究的主要途径。     

《生物多样性公约》国际履约过程变化分析

本文系统地分析了《生物多样性公约》(以下简称《公约》)国际履约的全过程, 得出履约是一个动态的、反馈的、注重实效的过程。其中核心议题变化、利益集团结盟和分化以及国家层面的履约是履行《公约》的三个相辅相成的过程。核心议题是历次缔约国大会的精髓, 核心议题产生关键性的决议, 其变迁导致公约组织机构、履约行动策略和计划发生变化, 也是利益集团分化的根本原因之一。利益集团分化是国际层面上对公约变化的响应, 是公约发展的驱动力之一, 然而利益集团难以协调也是目前阻碍《公约》发展的主要原因。国家层面上, 各国通过调整执行公约条款的优先顺序响应新的决议。不同国家根据各自国情有不同的履约优先顺序, 而我国履约实践存在优先顺序不明确, 缺少对《公约》的响应等问题, 直接导致我国履约效率低下。最后依据对《公约》履约过程变化分析结果, 宏观上提出中国履约对策建议。     

《生物多样性公约》国际履约的进展与趋势

<生物多样性公约>履约15a来,在国际履约层次上已形成由缔约方大会、科技咨询附属机构会议、特设工家组会议以及技术专家组会议等构成的会议制度与履约机制.<公约>以生态系统方式为指导,制定了7个生态系统类型的专题工作方案;提出10个跨领域议题的准则及其主要目标和原则;并通过"战略计划",提出到2010年大幅度降低全球、地区和各国生物多样性锐减速度的战略目标.而在<公约>的国际谈判过程中,缔约方形成了不同的利益集团.2008年5月召开的第九次缔约方大会,在遗传资源获取和惠益分享、应对气候变化、构建海洋保护区体系等方面取得进展;并进一步提出未来在国际层面的履约需要集中资源,具体实施已经制定的计划和工作方案.     

《生物多样性公约》审查机制的现状、挑战和展望

生物多样性丧失是全球共同面临的一项重大挑战, 强化《生物多样性公约》的执行是生物多样性全球治理当前面临的迫切问题, 而推进审查机制建设则是强化执行的一项重要议题, 引起国际社会高度关注。《生物多样性公约》框架下已初步建立起一套涉及多个维度的审查机制, 不断审查《生物多样性公约》及其有关议定书和其他法律文书的执行情况。然而, 审查机制面临着参与审查并强化问责的政治意愿尚显不足、国家信息投入有待加强、审查结论有待助力强化《生物多样性公约》执行、各类审查工具需加强统筹协调等主要问题, 由此也制约了审查工作的完善性和有效性。本文概述了《生物多样性公约》框架下的执行机制, 并重点梳理了审查机制的主要环节和内容, 分析了当前面临的主要障碍, 并就审查机制的进一步建设与强化提出建议, 以期为开展《生物多样性公约》履约与制度建设, 以及有关的研究工作提供参考。在战略层面, 本文认为应当在整体、全面和平衡地推进构建“2020年后全球生物多样性框架”的前提下推进《生物多样性公约》审查机制建设, 应当加强高层政治推动并调动各方行动意愿, 为发展中国家适用一定的和必要的灵活性; 在技术层面, 本文认为应当强化作为《生物多样性公约》审查机制前端的国家信息汇报, 应鼓励缔约方参与具有促进性的审查工作, 为国家自主评估执行情况提供重要补充, 并且审查内容也应当全面和平衡, 可以考虑采取全球盘点机制助力各方弥合执行差距并提升执行力度。     

从《生物多样性公约》资金机制战略目标变迁解析生物多样性热点问题

全球环境基金是《生物多样性公约》的唯一资金机制, 它按照《生物多样性公约》要求和基金自身的政策导向为发展中国家和经济转型国家提供资金支持。从其试点期到当前的第7增资期, 全球环境基金在生物多样性领域的战略目标发生了多次变迁, 研究这些资金机制战略目标所涉及的生物多样性热点问题的变迁情况对未来相关工作开展具有一定参考意义。本文梳理了各增资期生物多样性领域战略目标所涉及的生物多样性热点问题, 对每个热点问题在全球环境基金各增资期中资金量和内容的变迁情况进行了分析, 并就中国当前情况与之进行比较, 进而提出了加强对保护地中生态系统代表性的考虑、增强保护地资金可持续性、全面推动生物多样性主流化、加强生物安全相关领域研究、推进遗传资源获取和惠益分享立法并注重知识管理、加强新问题新挑战的应对、深化资金机制研究等建议, 以期为开展《生物多样性公约》履约、生物多样性管理和研究工作提供参考。     

农业生物多样性保护履约进展及对我国农业发展的启示

农业生物多样性是《生物多样性公约》(以下简称《公约》)履约的核心议题之一, 对世界粮食安全、农业可持续发展以及实现碳中和具有重要实践意义。然而, 越来越多的研究表明, 由于人口的持续增长和饮食结构的根本性改变, 农业扩张已成为生物多样性丧失的主要驱动力之一。本文基于《公约》条款、第二次至第十四次缔约方大会相关决定、生物多样性和生态系统服务政府间科学与政策平台评估报告、第五版《全球生物多样性展望》(GBO-5)等内容, 系统梳理了《公约》谈判中农业生物多样性的履约进展和演变进程, 分析了农业生物多样性面临的严峻形势及存在问题。在此基础上, 从深入农业生物多样性相关指标研究、基于自然的解决方案、实现农业绿色可持续发展以及推动非国家利益相关方参与等层面, 就加强中国农业生物多样性保护工作提出建议, 以期有利于塑造中国良好对外形象, 也为维护世界农业稳定和粮食安全、推动《公约》第十五次缔约方大会(COP15)的顺利召开和成果达成奠定科学基础。     

New directions in coral reef microbial ecology

Microbial processes largely control the health and resilience of coral reef ecosystems, and new technologies have led to an exciting wave of discovery regarding the mechanisms by which microbial communities support the functioning of these incredibly diverse and valuable systems. There are three questions at the forefront of discovery: What mechanisms underlie coral reef health and resilience? How do environmental and anthropogenic pressures affect ecosystem function? What is the ecology of microbial diseases of corals? The goal is to understand the functioning of coral reefs as integrated systems from microbes and molecules to regional and ocean‐basin scale ecosystems to enable accurate predictions of resilience and responses to perturbations such as climate change and eutrophication. This review outlines recent discoveries regarding the microbial ecology of different microenvironments within coral ecosystems, and highlights research directions that take advantage of new technologies to build a quantitative and mechanistic understanding of how coral health is connected through microbial processes to its surrounding environment. The time is ripe for natural resource managers and microbial ecologists to work together to create an integrated understanding of coral reef functioning. In the context of long‐term survival and conservation of reefs, the need for this work is immediate.     

珊瑚礁生态系统服务及其价值评估

珊瑚礁生态系统以其极高的生物多样性和美丽的水下景观而被人类过度利用,为了有效地管理和可持续利用珊瑚礁,对其生态系统服务及价值的评估就显得十分重要。本文介绍了珊瑚礁生态系统服务及其价值。以及评估方法的研究动态。珊瑚礁生态系统服务是指珊瑚礁生态系统与生态过程所形成及维持的人类赖以生存的自然环境条件与其效用,珊瑚礁生态系统服务分为经济性服务、生态性服务和社会性服务3部分,给出相应于珊瑚礁生态系统服务内容的价值分类以及常用的生产效益法、替代费用法、损害费用法、旅行费用法和条件价值法5种评估方法。文中还介绍了中国珊瑚礁的分布与特点,并根据国内珊瑚礁生态系统的状况,指出了中国开展珊瑚礁生态系统服务及其价值评估的迫切性。     

珊瑚礁生态系统病毒研究进展

病毒对珊瑚礁生态系统中的生物进化、生物地球化学循环、珊瑚疾病等方面具有重要的生态影响。随着珊瑚礁的全球性退化，病毒在珊瑚礁生态系统中的功能与危害日益显现。综述了珊瑚礁生态系统中病毒的研究现状与进展，包括：（1）珊瑚礁病毒的多样性与分布特征（水体、宿主、核心病毒组）；（2）珊瑚礁病毒的生态功能（感染方式、促进生物进化、生物地球化学循环）；（3）珊瑚礁病毒对全球气候变化的响应（热压力、珊瑚疾病）。总体而言，珊瑚礁生态系统具有极高的病毒多样性，所发现的60个科占已知所有病毒科数量的58%。珊瑚的核心病毒组主要由双链DNA病毒、单链DNA病毒、单链逆转录病毒所组成，珊瑚黏液层对病毒具有富集作用。"Piggyback-the-Winner"（依附-胜利）是病毒在珊瑚礁中主要的生物动力学模式，其可通过水平基因迁移的方式促进礁区生物进化。病毒可通过裂解细菌与浮游藻类的途径参与珊瑚礁的生物地球化学循环，尤其是碳循环与氮循环过程。此外，病毒还具有介导珊瑚热白化与直接引发珊瑚疾病的能力，这会影响珊瑚礁生态系统应对气候变化的适应性与恢复力。基于国际上的研究进展综述，结合南海珊瑚礁生态现状提出以下研究方向，以期促进我国珊瑚礁病毒学的发展：（1）开展南海珊瑚礁中病毒多样性的识别及其时-空分布特征研究；（2）探索病毒对南海珊瑚热白化、珊瑚疾病的介导作用及其与气候变化的关系；（3）揭示病毒对南海珊瑚礁生物地球化学循环的贡献。     

The dynamics of architectural complexity on coral reefs under climate change

One striking feature of coral reef ecosystems is the complex benthic architecture which supports diverse and abundant fauna, particularly of reef fish. Reef‐building corals are in decline worldwide, with a corresponding loss of live coral cover resulting in a loss of architectural complexity. Understanding the dynamics of the reef architecture is therefore important to envision the ability of corals to maintain functional habitats in an era of climate change. Here, we develop a mechanistic model of reef topographical complexity for contemporary Caribbean reefs. The model describes the dynamics of corals and other benthic taxa under climate‐driven disturbances (hurricanes and coral bleaching). Corals have a simplified shape with explicit diameter and height, allowing species‐specific calculation of their colony surface and volume. Growth and the mechanical (hurricanes) and biological erosion (parrotfish) of carbonate skeletons are important in driving the pace of extension/reduction in the upper reef surface, the net outcome being quantified by a simple surface roughness index (reef rugosity). The model accurately simulated the decadal changes of coral cover observed in Cozumel (Mexico) between 1984 and 2008, and provided a realistic hindcast of coral colony‐scale (1–10 m) changing rugosity over the same period. We then projected future changes of Caribbean reef rugosity in response to global warming. Under severe and frequent thermal stress, the model predicted a dramatic loss of rugosity over the next two or three decades. Critically, reefs with managed parrotfish populations were able to delay the general loss of architectural complexity, as the benefits of grazing in maintaining living coral outweighed the bioerosion of dead coral skeletons. Overall, this model provides the first explicit projections of reef rugosity in a warming climate, and highlights the need of combining local (protecting and restoring high grazing) to global (mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions) interventions for the persistence of functional reef habitats.     

Making evolutionary history count: biodiversity planning for coral reef fishes and the conservation of evolutionary processes

Anthropogenic activities are having devastating impacts on marine systems with numerous knock-on effects on trophic functioning, species interactions and an accelerated loss of biodiversity. Establishing conservation areas can not only protect biodiversity, but also confer resilience against changes to coral reefs and their inhabitants. Planning for protection and conservation in marine systems is complex, but usually focuses on maintaining levels of biodiversity and protecting special and unique landscape features while avoiding negative impacts to socio-economic benefits. Conversely, the integration of evolutionary processes that have shaped extant species assemblages is rarely taken into account. However, it is as important to protect processes as it is to protect patterns for maintaining the evolutionary trajectories of populations and species. This review focuses on different approaches for integrating genetic analyses, such as phylogenetic diversity, phylogeography and the delineation of management units, temporal and spatial monitoring of genetic diversity and quantification of adaptive variation for protecting evolutionary resilience, into marine spatial planning, specifically for coral reef fishes. Many of these concepts are not yet readily applied to coral reef fish studies, but this synthesis highlights their potential and the importance of including historical processes into systematic biodiversity planning for conserving not only extant, but also future, biodiversity and its evolutionary potential.     

西沙珊瑚礁生态系统完整性评价与动态仿真模拟研究

以中国西沙珊瑚礁生态监控区为例,从生态系统完整性视角出发,结合珊瑚礁功能群组与环境变化的多重反馈效应,运用系统动力学方法构建了西沙珊瑚礁生态系统动态诊断模型,并通过基础情景和典型干扰情景（捕捞活动、陆源沉积、长棘海星（Acanthaster planci）暴发）的模拟过程,分析该生态监控区2010-2050年生态系统完整性的发展趋势及演变机理。结果显示：（1）系统动力学与生态系统完整性评价方法的整合,为珊瑚礁生态系统完整性的定量研究提供了一种可行性的方法;（2）珊瑚礁生态系统各效应指数中累积效应的变化最为明显,2010-2050年指数最大增长17.2,年均增长率约为1.2%,综合完整性指数在波动变化中稳步上升,珊瑚礁受损程度由中受损向中、低受损转变;（3）不同状态的珊瑚礁生态系统完整性,在其演化的不同阶段各有差异性,并且这种差异通常随时间推移才逐渐放大;（4）无论何种情景下,珊瑚礁生态系统都具有一定的恢复能力,尤其处于系统演化的释放重组阶段（2035-2040年）,生态系统的不稳定将创造了一定的可恢复性。研究结果对于分析西沙珊瑚礁生态系统的整体演化过程提供了理论借鉴,也为我国后续的珊瑚礁生态系统适应性修复理论模式研究提供了重要的基础。     

Optimization of economic policies and investment projects using a fuzzy logic based cost-effectiveness model of coral reef quality: empirical results for Montego Bay, Jamaica

 For effective mitigation of human impacts, quantitative models are required that facilitate a comprehensive analysis of the effects of human activity on reefs. Fuzzy logic procedures generate a complex dose-response surface that models the relationships among coral abundance and various inputs (e.g., physical damage, sedimentation, nutrient influx), within the context of the abiotic marine environment. This is linked to a nonlinear economic structure incorporating technical interventions (e.g., pollution treatment) and policy interventions (e.g., taxation) in eight economic sectors. Optimization provides insights into the most cost-effective means for protecting coral reefs under different reef quality targets. The research demonstrates that: (1) it is feasible to use fuzzy logic to model complex interactions in coral reef ecosystems; and, (2) conventional economic procedures for modeling cost-effectiveness can result in sub-optimal policy choices when applied to complex systems such as coral reefs. In Montego Bay, Jamaica, up to a 20% increase in coral abundance may be achievable through using appropriate policy measures having a present value cost of US$153 million over 25 years; a 10% increase is achievable at a cost of US$12 million. Accepted: 20 June 1999     

Rehabilitation of coral reefs through removal of macroalgae: state of knowledge and considerations for management and implementation

Coral reef ecosystems are under increasing pressure by multiple stressors that degrade reef condition and function. Although improved management systems have yielded benefits in many regions, broad‐scale declines continue and additional practical and effective solutions for reef conservation and management are urgently needed. Ecological interventions to assist or enhance ecosystem recovery are standard practice in many terrestrial management regimes, and they are now increasingly being implemented in the marine environment. Intervention activities in coral reef systems include the control of coral predators (e.g. crown‐of‐thorns starfish), substrate modification, the creation of artificial habitats and the cultivation, transplantation, and assisted recruitment of corals. On many coastal reefs, corals face competition and overgrowth by fleshy macroalgae whose abundance may be elevated due to acute disturbance events, chronic nutrient enrichment, and reduced herbivory. Active macroalgae removal has been proposed and trialed as a management tool to reduce competition between algae and corals and provide space for coral recruitment, in the hope of restoring the spatial dominance of habitat‐forming corals. However, macroalgae removal has received little formal attention as a method of reef restoration. This review synthesizes available knowledge of the ecological role of macroalgae on coral reefs and the potential benefits and risks associated with their active removal.     

热带珊瑚礁区海参的生境选择与生态作用

珊瑚礁生态系统是一个高生产力、高生物多样性的特殊海洋生态系统,具有为生物提供栖息地、参与生物地球化学循环、防浪护岸、指示水体污染程度等生态功能。珊瑚礁生态系统的突出特点是其生境异质性很高,各种各样的生境斑块为种类繁多、习性各异的游泳和底栖生物提供栖息场所,这些礁栖生物通过参与各项生态过程而形成各种特定的功能群,共同完成重要的生态功能。在热带珊瑚礁生态系统中,海参是大型底栖动物区系的重要一员。种类繁多的海参具有各自不同的生境选择特征,通过摄食、运动等行为活动发挥着改良底质、促进有机物矿化和营养盐再生等生态作用。近几年来,全球热带海参受人类过度捕捞和珊瑚礁退化的影响而面临资源衰退、物种多样性丧失等问题,深入认识其生态学功能、加强热带海参资源保护迫在眉睫。综述了国内外热带珊瑚礁海参的基础生态学研究进展：海参对珊瑚礁生境斑块呈现显著的偏好选择特征以及种间差异和季节变动,不同生境斑块的食物质量、底质类型和水动力条件是影响海参生境偏好的重要因素;海参通过生物扰动可以改变珊瑚礁生境沉积物的含水量、渗透性、颗粒组成、再矿化率、无机营养物质释放速率以及孔隙水的化学梯度,并增加沉积物中的溶氧浓度、促进溶解...     

High resilience masks underlying sensitivity to algal phase shifts of Pacific coral reefs

A single ecosystem can exhibit great biogeographic and environmental variability. While a given ecological driver might have a strong impact in one region, it does not necessarily hold that its importance will extend elsewhere. Coral reefs provide a striking example in that coral communities have low resilience in the Atlantic and remarkable resilience in parts of the species‐rich Pacific. Recent experimental evidence from the Atlantic finds that fishing of large herbivorous fish can be a strong driver of coral resilience. Here, we repeat the Atlantic experiment in the highly resilient forereef of Moorea (French Polynesia), which has repeatedly recovered from disturbances. A combination of cages, fish deterrents (FDs), and controls allowed us to simulate the consequences of fishing large herbivores on algal assemblages, coral recruitment, and the demographic rates of coral juveniles. We find that the impacts of removing large herbivorous reef fish vary with early coral ontogeny. Reduced herbivore access led to a modest macroalgal bloom and reduction in coral recruitment. However, larger juvenile corals (> 1 cm diameter) survived better and grew faster under these conditions because of a reduction in corallivory. To determine the net impact of losing larger herbivorous fish, we combined experimental results with estimated demographic parameters in an individual‐based model. Simulating coral recovery trajectories for five years, we find that protecting larger reef fish led to better recovery in 66–99% of simulations, depending on underlying assumptions (with the more credible assumptions being associated with greater likelihood of net positive impacts). While we find that fishing effects are detrimental to corals in both the Atlantic and Pacific systems studied, the nature of the interactions varied markedly. In the identical previously‐published study in the Atlantic, macroalgae exhibited a rapid bloom and caused a sufficiently large reduction in coral recruitment to force a predicted ecosystem shift to an alternative attractor. The commensurate macroalgal bloom in Moorea was weak yet the corals were two orders of magnitude more sensitive to its presence. We do not suggest that a reduction in recruitment in Moorea will lead to alternative attractors but the long‐term risks of a reduction in recovery rate are cause for concern as rates of coral mortality are projected to increase. The emerging picture is that Pacific reefs are less likely to experience macroalgal blooms but are surprisingly sensitive to such blooms if they occur.