The disentangled bank: how loss of habitat fragments and disassembles ecological networks

Habitat transformation is one of the leading causes of changes in biodiversity and the breakdown of ecosystem function and services. The impacts of habitat transformation on biodiversity are complex and can be difficult to test and demonstrate. Network approaches to biodiversity science have provided a powerful set of tools and models that are beginning to present new insight into the structural and functional effects of habitat transformation on complex ecological systems. We propose a framework for studying the ways in which habitat loss and fragmentation jointly affect biodiversity by altering both habitat and ecological interaction networks. That is, the explicit study of "networks of networks" is required to understand the impacts of habitat change on biodiversity. We conduct a broad review of network methods and results, with the aim of revealing the common approaches used by landscape ecology and community ecology. We find that while a lot is known about the consequences of habitat transformation for habitat network topology and for the structure and function of simple antagonistic and mutualistic interaction networks, few studies have evaluated the consequences for large interaction networks with complex and spatially explicit architectures. Moreover, almost no studies have been focused on the continuous feedback between the spatial structure and dynamics of the habitat network and the structure and dynamics of the interaction networks inhabiting the habitat network. We conclude that theory and experiments that tackle the ecology of networks of networks are needed to provide a deeper understanding of biodiversity change in fragmented landscapes.     

Modelling inducible defences in predator–prey interactions: assumptions and dynamical consequences of three distinct approaches

Inducible defences against predation are widespread in the natural world, allowing prey to economise on the costs of defence when predation risk varies over time or is spatially structured. Through interspecific interactions, inducible defences have major impacts on ecological dynamics, particularly predator–prey stability and phase lag. Researchers have developed multiple distinct approaches, each reflecting assumptions appropriate for particular ecological communities. Yet, the impact of inducible defences on ecological dynamics can be highly sensitive to the modelling approach used, making the choice of model a critical decision that affects interpretation of the dynamical consequences of inducible defences. Here, we review three existing approaches to modelling inducible defences: Switching Function, Fitness Gradient and Optimal Trait. We assess when and how the dynamical outcomes of these approaches differ from each other, from classic predator–prey dynamics and from commonly observed eco‐evolutionary dynamics with evolving, but non‐inducible, prey defences. We point out that the Switching Function models tend to stabilise population dynamics, and the Fitness Gradient models should be carefully used, as the difference with evolutionary dynamics is important. We discuss advantages of each approach for applications to ecological systems with particular features, with the goal of providing guidelines for future researchers to build on.     

How seasonal variations in birth and transmission rates impact population dynamics in a basic SIR model

The changing climate is expected to alter the timings of key events in species life-histories. These shifts are likely to have important consequences for infectious disease dynamics, as the distribution and abundance of host species will lead to a different environment for parasites. Previous work has shown how seasonality in single host traits - most commonly the reproduction rate or transmission rate - can lead to an array of complex epidemiological dynamics, including chaos and multiple-stable states, with changes to the timing and amplitude of the seasonal peaks often driving drastic changes in behaviour. However, more than one life-history trait is likely to be seasonal, and changing environmental conditions may impact each of them in different ways, yet there have been few studies of host-parasite dynamics that include more than one seasonal trait. Here we examine a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered epidemiological model in which both reproduction and transmission exhibit seasonal fluctuations. We examine how the amplitude and timing of these seasonal peaks impact disease dynamics. We show that the relative timing of the two events is key, with the most stable dynamics when births peak a few months before transmission. We also show that chaotic dynamics become more likely when transmission in particular has a high amplitude, and when baseline transmission and virulence are high. Our results emphasise the importance of seasonality and timing of host life-history events to disease dynamics.     

Eco‐evolutionary dynamics in restored communities and ecosystems

Recent ecological studies have revealed that rapid evolution within populations can have significant impacts on the ecological dynamics of communities and ecosystems. These eco‐evolutionary dynamics (EED) are likely to have substantial and quantifiable effects in restored habitats over timescales that are relevant for the conservation and restoration of small populations and threatened communities. Restored habitats may serve as “hotspots” for EED due to mismatches between transplanted genotypes and the restored environment, and novel interactions among lineages that do not share a coevolutionary history, both of which can generate strong selection for rapid evolutionary change that has immediate demographic consequences. Rapid evolution that influences population dynamics and community processes is likely to have particularly large effects during the establishment phase of restoration efforts. Finally, restoration activities and their associated long‐term monitoring programs provide outstanding opportunities for using eco‐evolutionary experimental approaches. Results from such studies will address questions about the effects of rapid evolutionary change on the ecological dynamics of populations and interacting species, while simultaneously providing critical, but currently overlooked, information for conservation practices.     

Long-term ecological dynamics: reciprocal insights from natural and anthropogenic gradients

Many ecological dynamics occur over time-scales that are well beyond the duration of conventional experiments or observations. One useful approach to overcome this problem is extrapolation of temporal dynamics from spatial variation. We review two complementary variants of this approach that have been of late increasingly employed: the use of natural gradients to infer anthropogenic effects and the use of anthropogenic gradients to infer natural dynamics. Recent studies have considered a variety of naturally occurring gradients associated with climate, CO2, disturbance and biodiversity gradients, as well as anthropogenic gradients such as those created by biological invasions, habitat fragmentation and land abandonment. These studies show that natural gradients are useful in predicting long-term consequences of human-induced environmental changes, whereas anthropogenic gradients are helpful in inferring the mechanisms behind natural dynamics because covarying factors are often more clearly understood in anthropogenic gradients than in natural gradients. We classify these studies into several categories, each with different strengths and weaknesses, and outline how the limitations can be overcome by combining the gradient-based approach with other approaches. Overall, studies reviewed here demonstrate that the development of basic ecological concepts and the application of these concepts to environmental problems can be more effective when conducted complementarily than when pursued separately.     

Temporal ecology in the Anthropocene

Two fundamental axes – space and time – shape ecological systems. Over the last 30 years spatial ecology has developed as an integrative, multidisciplinary science that has improved our understanding of the ecological consequences of habitat fragmentation and loss. We argue that accelerating climate change – the effective manipulation of time by humans – has generated a current need to build an equivalent framework for temporal ecology. Climate change has at once pressed ecologists to understand and predict ecological dynamics in non‐stationary environments, while also challenged fundamental assumptions of many concepts, models and approaches. However, similarities between space and time, especially related issues of scaling, provide an outline for improving ecological models and forecasting of temporal dynamics, while the unique attributes of time, particularly its emphasis on events and its singular direction, highlight where new approaches are needed. We emphasise how a renewed, interdisciplinary focus on time would coalesce related concepts, help develop new theories and methods and guide further data collection. The next challenge will be to unite predictive frameworks from spatial and temporal ecology to build robust forecasts of when and where environmental change will pose the largest threats to species and ecosystems, as well as identifying the best opportunities for conservation.     

Population dynamics of a South American rodent: seasonal structure interacting with climate,density dependence and predator effects

Understanding the role of interactions between intrinsic feedback loops and external climatic forces is one of the central challenges within the field of population ecology. For rodent dynamics, the seasonal structure of the environment necessitates changes between two stages: reproductive and non-reproductive. Nevertheless, the interactions between seasonality, climate, density dependence and predators have been generally ignored. We demonstrate that direct climate effects, the nonlinear effect of predators and the nonlinear first-order feedback embedded in a seasonal structure are key elements underlying the large and irregular fluctuations in population numbers exhibited by a small rodent in a semi-arid region of central Chile. We found that factors influencing population growth rates clearly differ between breeding and non-breeding seasons. In addition, we detected nonlinear density dependencies as well as nonlinear and differential effects of generalist and specialist predators. Recent climatic changes may account for dramatic perturbations of the rodent's population dynamics. Changes in the predator guild induced by climate are likely to result, through the food web, in a large impact on small rodent demography and population dynamics. Assuming such interactions to be typical of ecological systems, we conclude that appropriate predictions of the ecological consequences of climate change will depend on having an in-depth understanding of the community-weather system.     

Climatic warming increases voltinism in European butterflies and moths

Climate change is altering geographical ranges, population dynamics and phenologies of many organisms. For ectotherms, increased ambient temperatures frequently have direct consequences for metabolic rates, activity patterns and developmental rates. Consequently, in many insect species both an earlier beginning and prolongation of seasonal duration occurred in parallel with recent global warming. However, from an ecological and evolutionary perspective, the number of generations (voltinism) and investment into each generation may be even more important than seasonality, since an additional generation per unit time may accelerate population growth or adaptation. Using a dataset extending back to the mid-nineteenth century, I report changes in the voltinism of butterfly and moth species of Central Europe. A significant proportion of 263 multi-voltine species showed augmented frequency of second and subsequent generations relative to the first generation in a warm period since 1980, and 44 species even increased the number of generations after 1980. Expected ecological consequences are diverse. Since multi-voltinism has been linked to insect outbreaks they include an increase in the abundance of herbivorous pests of agriculture and forestry. However, disruption of the developmental synchrony associated with multi-voltinism and host plant phenology may also reduce fitness, potentially having unexpected consequences for species of conservation concern. The ability of species to adapt evolutionarily to a changing environment may be facilitated by increased voltinism.     

Advancing urban ecological studies: Frameworks,concepts, and results from the Baltimore Ecosystem Study

Abstract Urban ecological studies have had a long history, but they have not been a component of mainstream ecology until recently. The growing interest of ecologists in urban systems provides an opportunity to articulate integrative frameworks, and identify research tools and approaches that can help achieve a broader ecological understanding of urban systems. Based on our experience in the Baltimore Ecosystem Study (BES), Long‐term Ecological Research project, located in metropolitan Baltimore, Maryland, USA, we identify several frameworks that may be useful in comparative urban studies, and may be worthy of consideration in other integrative urban ecosystem studies: (i) spatial patch dynamics of biophysical and social factors; (ii) the watershed as an integrative tool; and (iii) the human ecosystem framework. These frameworks build on empirical research investigating urban biota, nutrient and energy budgets, ecological footprints of cities, as well as biotic classifications aimed at urban planning. These frameworks bring together perspectives, measurements, and models from biophysical and social sciences. We illustrate their application in the BES, which is designed to investigate (i) the structure and change of the urban ecosystem; (ii) the fluxes of matter, energy, capital, and population in the metropolis; and (iii) how ecological information affects the quality of the local and regional environments. Exemplary results concerning urban stream nutrient flux, the ability of riparian zones to process nitrate pollution, and the lags in the relationships between vegetation structure and socio‐economic factors in specific neighbourhoods are presented. The current advances in urban ecological studies have profited greatly from the variety of integrative frameworks and tools that have been tested and applied in urban areas over the last decade. The field is poised to make significant progress as a result of ongoing conceptual and empirical consolidation.     

Seasonal infectious disease epidemiology

Seasonal change in the incidence of infectious diseases is a common phenomenon in both temperate and tropical climates. However, the mechanisms responsible for seasonal disease incidence, and the epidemiological consequences of seasonality, are poorly understood with rare exception. Standard epidemiological theory and concepts such as the basic reproductive number R0 no longer apply, and the implications for interventions that themselves may be periodic, such as pulse vaccination, have not been formally examined. This paper examines the causes and consequences of seasonality, and in so doing derives several new results concerning vaccination strategy and the interpretation of disease outbreak data. It begins with a brief review of published scientific studies in support of different causes of seasonality in infectious diseases of humans, identifying four principal mechanisms and their association with different routes of transmission. It then describes the consequences of seasonality for R0, disease outbreaks, endemic dynamics and persistence. Finally, a mathematical analysis of routine and pulse vaccination programmes for seasonal infections is presented. The synthesis of seasonal infectious disease epidemiology attempted by this paper highlights the need for further empirical and theoretical work.     

Metacommunity speciation models and their implications for diversification theory

The emergence of new frameworks combining evolutionary and ecological dynamics in communities opens new perspectives on the study of speciation. By acknowledging the relative contribution of local and regional dynamics in shaping the complexity of ecological communities, metacommunity theory sheds a new light on the mechanisms underlying the emergence of species. Three integrative frameworks have been proposed, involving neutral dynamics, niche theory, and life history trade‐offs respectively. Here, we review these frameworks of metacommunity theory to emphasise that: (1) studies on speciation and community ecology have converged towards similar general principles by acknowledging the central role of dispersal in metacommunities dynamics, (2) considering the conditions of emergence and maintenance of new species in communities has given rise to new models of speciation embedded in the metacommunity theory, (3) studies of diversification have shifted from relating phylogenetic patterns to landscapes spatial and ecological characteristics towards integrative approaches that explicitly consider speciation in a mechanistic ecological framework. We highlight several challenges, in particular the need for a better integration of the eco‐evolutionary consequences of dispersal and the need to increase our understanding on the relative rates of evolutionary and ecological changes in communities.     

Molecules are more than markers: new directions in molecular microbial ecology

Macromolecules such as DNA, RNA, and proteins are widely used to quantify diversity in natural communities, to monitor the dispersal of organisms and their genes, and to trace phylogenetic relationships among organisms. With such widespread use of molecules as markers, it is easy to forget that they perform functions that are integral to the survival of organisms. The structural and functional properties of macromolecules have been intensively studied in genetics, biochemistry, and physiology. These fields, however, have not generally focused on the ecological significance of molecular variation, but instead have used defective variants as tools for identifying structure and function. Understanding the significance of molecular variation for organismal success or failure is a central problem in ecology, one whose solution will require the integration of diverse approaches and perspectives from ecology, molecular biology, genetics, physiology, and evolutionary biology. I review several studies of bacterial populations evolving in simple environments that have begun to integrate these approaches and perspectives in order to examine the consequences of molecular variation for ecological performance.     

The ecological consequences of environmentally induced phenotypic changes

Population dynamics and species persistence are often mediated by species traits. Yet many important traits, like body size, can be set by resource availability and predation risk. Environmentally induced changes in resource levels or predation risk may thus have downstream ecological consequences. Here, we assess whether quantity and type of resources affect the phenotype, the population dynamics, and the susceptibility to predation of a mixotrophic protist through experiments and a model. We show that cell shape, but not size, changes with resource levels and type, and is linked to carrying capacity, thus affecting population dynamics. Also, these changes lead to differential susceptibility to predation, with direct consequences for predator‐prey dynamics. We describe important links between environmental changes, traits, population dynamics and ecological interactions, that underscore the need to further understand how trait‐mediated interactions may respond to environmental shifts in resource levels in an increasingly changing world.     

Seasonal population and individual niche dynamics in a tetra fish in the Pantanal wetlands

In seasonal tropical regions, rainfall and/or temporary floods during the wet season generally increase the abundance and diversity of food resources to many consumers as compared to the dry season. Therefore, seasonality can affect intraspecific competition and ecological opportunity, which are two important ecological mechanisms underlying population and individual niche variations. Here, we took advantage of the strong seasonality in the Pantanal wetlands to investigate how within‐ and between‐individual diet variations relate to seasonal population niche dynamics of the tetra fish Astyanax lacustris. We quantified dietary niche using gut contents and stable isotopes. Tetras had higher gut fullness and better body condition in the wet season, suggesting that competition is more intense in the dry season. The population niche was broader in the wet season due to an increase in diet divergence between individuals, in spite of potential stronger competition in the dry season. We posit that low ecological opportunity in the dry season limits the diversifying effect of intraspecific competition, constraining population niche expansion. Our results add new insights on how seasonality affects population and individual diets, indicating that intraspecific competition and ecological opportunity interact to determine temporal niche variations in seasonal environments.     

Coupled land use and ecological models reveal emergence and feedbacks in socio‐ecological systems

Understanding the dynamics of socio‐ecological systems is crucial to the development of environmentally sustainable practices. Models of social or ecological sub‐systems have greatly enhanced such understanding, but at the risk of obscuring important feedbacks and emergent effects. Integrated modelling approaches have the potential to address this shortcoming by explicitly representing linked socio‐ecological dynamics. We developed a socio‐ecological system model by coupling an existing agent‐based model of land‐use dynamics and an individual‐based model of demography and dispersal. A hypothetical case‐study was established to simulate the interaction of crops and their pollinators in a changing agricultural landscape, initialised from a spatially random distribution of natural assets. The bi‐directional coupled model predicted larger changes in crop yield and pollinator populations than a unidirectional uncoupled version. The spatial properties of the system also differed, the coupled version revealing the emergence of spatial land‐use clusters that neither supported nor required pollinators. These findings suggest that important dynamics may be missed by uncoupled modelling approaches, but that these can be captured through the combination of currently‐available, compatible model frameworks. Such model integrations are required to further fundamental understanding of socio‐ecological dynamics and thus improve management of socio‐ecological systems.     

Developmental synchrony in multivoltine insects: generation separation versus smearing

Many insect species undergo multiple generations each year. They are found across biomes that vary in their strength of seasonality and, depending on location and species, can display a wide range of population dynamics. Some species exhibit cycles with distinct generations (developmental synchrony/generation separation), some exhibit overlapping generations with multiple life stages present simultaneously (generation smearing), while others have intermediate dynamics with early season separation followed by late season smearing. There are two main hypotheses to explain these dynamics. The first is the ‘seasonal disturbance’ hypothesis where winter synchronizes the developmental clock among individuals, which causes transient generation separation early in the season that erodes through the summer. The second is the ‘temperature destabilization’ hypothesis where warm temperatures during the summer cause population dynamics to become unstable giving rise to single generation cycles. Both hypotheses are supported by detailed mathematical theory incorporating mechanisms that are likely to drive dynamics in nature. In this review, we synthesize the theory and propose a conceptual framework—where each mechanism may be seen as an independent axis shaping the developmental (a)synchrony—that allows us to predict dynamic patterns from insect life-history characteristics. High fecundity, short adult life-span and strong seasonality enhance synchrony, while developmental plasticity and environmental heterogeneity erode synchrony. We further review current mathematical and statistical tools to study multi-generational dynamics and illustrate using case studies of multivoltine tortrix moths. By integrating two disparate bodies of theory, we articulate a deep connection among temperature, stability, developmental synchrony and inter-generational dynamics of multivoltine insects that is missing in current literature.     

Evolution toward multi-year periodicity in epidemics

We studied why many diseases has multi‐year period in their epidemiological dynamics, whereas a main source of the fluctuation is a seasonality with period of 1 year. Previous studies using a compartment model with seasonality in transmission rate succeed to generate a multi‐year epidemiological dynamics, when, in particular, the seasonal difference is large. However, these studies have focused on the dynamical consequence of seasonal forcing in epidemiological dynamics and an adaptation of pathogens in the seasonal environment has been neglected. In this paper, we describe our study of the evolution of pathogen's sensitivity to seasonality and show that a larger fluctuation in the transmission rate can be favored in the life history evolution of pathogens, suggesting that multi‐year periodicity may evolve by natural selection. Our result proposes a new aspect of the evolution of multi‐year epidemics.     

Ecological hierarchies and self-organisation – Pattern analysis,modelling and process integration across scales

A continuing discussion in applied and theoretical ecology focuses on the relationship of different organisational levels and on how ecological systems interact across scales. We address principal approaches to cope with complex across-level issues in ecology by applying elements of hierarchy theory and the theory of complex adaptive systems. A top-down approach, often characterised by the use of statistical techniques, can be applied to analyse large-scale dynamics and identify constraints exerted on lower levels. Current developments are illustrated with examples from the analysis of within-community spatial patterns and large-scale vegetation patterns. A bottom-up approach allows one to elucidate how interactions of individuals shape dynamics at higher levels in a self-organisation process; e.g., population development and community composition. This may be facilitated by various modelling tools, which provide the distinction between focal levels and resulting properties. For instance, resilience in grassland communities has been analysed with a cellular automaton approach, and the driving forces in rodent population oscillations have been identified with an agent-based model. Both modelling tools illustrate the principles of analysing higher level processes by representing the interactions of basic components.The focus of most ecological investigations on either top-down or bottom-up approaches may not be appropriate, if strong cross-scale relationships predominate. Here, we propose an ‘across-scale-approach’, closely interweaving the inherent potentials of both approaches. This combination of analytical and synthesising approaches will enable ecologists to establish a more coherent access to cross-level interactions in ecological systems.     

Integration of chlorophyll a fluorescence and photorespirometry techniques to understand production dynamics in macroaglal communities

Global declines of macroalgal beds in coastal waters have prompted a plethora of studies attempting to understand the drivers of change within dynamic nearshore ecosystems. Photosynthetic measurements are good tools for assessing the consequences of numerous stressors of macroalgae, but there is somewhat of a disconnection between studies that focus on organism‐specific ecophysiological responses and those that address causes and consequences of shifts in macroalgal productivity. Our goal is to highlight the applications of two complementary tools for measuring photosynthesis—variable chlorophyll a fluorescence and photorespirometry—and provide guidance for the integration of physiology and ecology to understand the drivers of change in macroalgal communities. Photorespirometry can provide an integrated measure of whole‐community metabolism, including an estimate of the physiological costs associated with stressors, while fluorescence‐based techniques provide point measures of the efficiency of the photosynthetic apparatus within communities. Variable chlorophyll a fluorescence does not provide an estimate of carbon balance or integrated photosynthesis across either whole plants or whole communities but can be used to estimate the contribution of individual community components in the dynamic subcanopy environment to help us understand the mechanisms underlying observed responses. We highlight the importance of the highly dynamic light environment within macroalgal communities and call for better integration of physiological techniques in an ecological context to enhance our understanding of the responses of whole communities to local and global stressors.