Assessing the impacts of past and ongoing deforestation on rainfall patterns in South America

Despite recent advances in modeling forest–rainfall relationships, the current understanding of changes in observed rainfall patterns resulting from historical deforestation remains limited. To address this knowledge gap, we analyzed how 40 years of deforestation has altered rainfall patterns in South America as well as how current Amazonian forest cover sustains rainfall. First, we develop a spatiotemporal neural network model to simulate rainfall as a function of vegetation and climate inputs in South America; second, we assess the rainfall effects of observed deforestation in South America during the periods 1982–2020 and 2000–2020; third, we assess the potential rainfall changes in the Amazon biome under two deforestation scenarios. We find that, on average, cumulative deforestation in South America from 1982 to 2020 has reduced rainfall over the period 2016–2020 by 18% over deforested areas, and by 9% over non-deforested areas across South America. We also find that more recent deforestation, that is, from 2000 to 2020, has reduced rainfall over the period 2016–2020 by 10% over deforested areas and by 5% over non-deforested areas. Deforestation between 1982 and 2020 has led to a doubling in the area experiencing a minimum dry season of 4 months in the Amazon biome. Similarly, in the Cerrado region, there has been a corresponding doubling in the area with a minimum dry season of 7 months. These changes are compared to a hypothetical scenario where no deforestation occurred. Complete conversion of all Amazon forest land outside protected areas would reduce average annual rainfall in the Amazon by 36% and complete deforestation of all forest cover including protected areas would reduce average annual rainfall in the Amazon by 68%. Our findings emphasize the urgent need for effective conservation measures to safeguard both forest ecosystems and sustainable agricultural practices.     

Patterns and Trends of Forest Loss in the Colombian Guyana

Spatial patterns of tropical deforestation and fragmentation are conditional upon human settlement characteristics. We analyze four different human occupation models (indigenous, colonist frontier, transition and established settlement) in the Colombian Guyana Shield at three different times: 1985, 1992 and 2002, and compared them for: (1) deforestation rates; (2) the amount of forest as classified according to a fragmentation pattern (interior forest, edge forest, perforated forest and forest patch); (3) various fragmentation metrics using repeated measures analysis of variance; and (4) potential future deforestation trends though the implementation of a spatially explicit simulation model. The indigenous and colonist frontier occupation models had low rates of deforestation (0.04%/yr), while the well‐established settlement occupation model had the highest rate (3.68%/yr). Our results indicate that the four occupation models generate three deforestation patterns: diffuse, which can be subdivided into two subpatterns (indigenous and colonist), geometric (transition) and patchy (established settlement). The area with the established settlement model was highly fragmented, while in the transition occupation area, forest loss was gradual and linked to economic activities associated with the expansion of the agricultural frontier. The simulation of future trends revealed that indigenous and colonist areas had a constant, albeit small, loss of forest covers. The other models had a deforestation probability of 0.8 or more. Overall, our results highlight the need for new and urgent policies for reducing forest conversion that consider intraregional variability in human occupation linked to differences in land‐use patterns. Abstract in Spanish is available in the online version of this article.     

Resilience of New?Zealand indigenous forest fragments to impacts of livestock and pest mammals

A number of factors have combined to diminish ecosystem integrity in New?Zealand indigenous lowland forest fragments surrounded by intensively grazed pasture. Livestock grazing, mammalian pests, adventive weeds and altered nutrient input regimes are important drivers compounding the changes in fragment structure and function due to historical deforestation and fragmentation. We used qualitative systems modelling and empirical data from Beilschmiedia tawa dominated lowland forest fragments in the Waikato Region to explore the relevance of two common resilience paradigms ? engineering resilience and ecological resilience ? for addressing the conservation management of forest fragments into the future. Grazing by livestock and foraging/predation by introduced mammalian pests both have direct detrimental impacts on key structural and functional attributes of forest fragments. Release from these perturbations through fencing and pest control leads to partial or full recovery of some key indicators (i.e. increased indigenous plant regeneration and cover, increased invertebrate populations and litter mass, decreased soil fertility and increased nesting success) relative to levels seen in larger forest systems over a range of timescales. These changes indicate that forest fragments do show resilience consistent with adopting an engineering resilience paradigm for conservation management, in the landscape context studied. The relevance of the ecological resilience paradigm in these ecosystems is obscured by limited data. We characterise forest fragment dynamics in terms of changes in indigenous species occupancy and functional dominance, and present a conceptual model for the management of forest fragment ecosystems.     

Deforestation rates in insular Southeast Asia between 2000 and 2010

Insular Southeast Asia experienced the highest level of deforestation among all humid tropical regions of the world during the 1990s. Owing to the exceptionally high biodiversity in Southeast Asian forest ecosystems and the immense amount of carbon stored in forested peatlands, deforestation in this region has the potential to cause serious global consequences. In this study, we analysed deforestation rates in insular Southeast Asia between 2000 and 2010 utilizing a pair of 250 m spatial resolution land cover maps produced with regional methodology and classification scheme. The results revealed an overall 1.0% yearly decline in forest cover in insular Southeast Asia (including the Indonesian part of New Guinea) with main change trajectories to plantations and secondary vegetation. Throughout the region, peat swamp forests experienced clearly the highest deforestation rates at an average annual rate of 2.2%, while lowland evergreen forests declined by 1.2%/yr. In addition, the analysis showed remarkable spatial variation in deforestation levels within the region and exposed two extreme concentration areas with over 5.0% annual forest loss: the eastern lowlands of Sumatra and the peatlands of Sarawak, Borneo. Both of these areas lost around half of their year 2000 peat swamp forest cover by 2010. As a whole this study has shown that deforestation has continued to take place on high level in insular Southeast Asia since the turn of the millennium. These on‐going changes not only endanger the existence of numerous forest species endemic to this region, but they further increase the elevated carbon emissions from deforested peatlands of insular Southeast Asia thereby directly contributing to the rising carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere.     

A bioregional analysis of the distribution of rainforest cover,deforestation and degradation in Papua New Guinea

Papua New Guinea (PNG) is an extensively forested country. Recent research suggests that despite commencing a trajectory of deforestation and degradation later than many counties in the Asia–Pacific region, PNG is now undergoing comparable rates of forest change. Here we explore the bioregional distribution of changes in the forest estate over the period 1972–2002 and examine their implications for forest protection. This is undertaken through the development of a novel bioregional classification of the country based on biogeographic regions and climatic zones, and its application to existing forest cover and forest‐cover change data. We found that degradation and deforestation varied considerably across the 11 defined biogeographic regions. We report that the majority of deforestation and degradation has occurred within all the lowland forests, and that it is these forests that have the greatest potential for further losses in the near term. The largest percentage of total change occurred in the east of PNG, in the islands and lowlands of the Bismarck, D'Entrecasteaux, East Papuan Islands and in the South‐East Papua–Oro region. The only region with a significant highlands component to undergo deforestation at a comparable magnitude to the islands and lowland regions was the Huon Peninsula and Adelbert region. Significant changes have also occurred at higher elevations, especially at the interface of subalpine grasslands and upper montane forests. Lower montane forests have experienced proportionally less change, yet it is these forests that constitute the majority of forests enclosed within the protected area system. We find that protected areas are not convincingly protecting either representative areas of PNG's ecosystems, nor the forests within their borders. We conclude by suggesting a more expansive and integrated approach to managing the national forest estate.     

中国森林生态系统地表径流调节特征

径流调节是森林生态系统重要生态服务功能之一,包含着大气、水分、植被和土壤等生物物理过程,其变化将直接影响区域气候水文、植被和土壤等状况,是区域生态系统状况的重要指示器。在区域尺度上评估森林生态系统地表径流特征,对于科学认识和合理保护森林生态系统水源涵养功能具有重要意义。以森林生态系统定位监测数据为基础,探讨地表径流与降水,径流系数与植被的关系,建立径流系数与植被的回归方程,分析全国森林生态系统地表径流调节特征。结果表明:(1)各森林类型地表径流与降水相关性显著,其对地表径流的影响为37%—76%。此外,径流系数与植被也显著相关,其对径流系数的解释能力为27%—47%。(2)基于植被覆盖数据,通过植被与径流系数回归方程估算全国森林生态系统的地表径流调节特征。全国各森林生态系统径流调节能力存在差异,强弱顺序为:落叶针叶林落叶阔叶林针阔混交林常绿针叶林常绿阔叶林。     

A High-Resolution Chronology of Rapid Forest Transitions following Polynesian Arrival in New Zealand

Human-caused forest transitions are documented worldwide, especially during periods when land use by dense agriculturally-based populations intensified. However, the rate at which prehistoric human activities led to permanent deforestation is poorly resolved. In the South Island, New Zealand, the arrival of Polynesians c. 750 years ago resulted in dramatic forest loss and conversion of nearly half of native forests to open vegetation. This transformation, termed the Initial Burning Period, is documented in pollen and charcoal records, but its speed has been poorly constrained. High-resolution chronologies developed with a series of AMS radiocarbon dates from two lake sediment cores suggest the shift from forest to shrubland occurred within decades rather than centuries at drier sites. We examine two sites representing extreme examples of the magnitude of human impacts: a drier site that was inherently more vulnerable to human-set fires and a wetter, less burnable site. The astonishing rate of deforestation at the hands of small transient populations resulted from the intrinsic vulnerability of the native flora to fire and from positive feedbacks in post-fire vegetation recovery that increased landscape flammability. Spatially targeting burning in highly-flammable seral vegetation in forests rarely experiencing fire was sufficient to create an alternate fire-prone stable state. The New Zealand example illustrates how seemingly stable forest ecosystems can experience rapid and permanent conversions. Forest loss in New Zealand is among the fastest ecological transitions documented in the Holocene; yet equally rapid transitions can be expected in present-day regions wherever positive feedbacks support alternate fire-inhibiting, fire-prone stable states.     

Synergistic effects of drought and deforestation on the resilience of the south-eastern Amazon rainforest

The south-eastern Amazon rainforest is subject to ongoing deforestation and is expected to become drier due to climate change. Recent analyses of the distribution of tree cover in the tropics show three modes that have been interpreted as representing alternative stable states: forest, savanna and treeless states. This situation implies that a change in environmental conditions, such as in the climate, could cause critical transitions from a forest towards a savanna ecosystem. Shifts to savanna might also occur if perturbations such as deforestation exceed a critical threshold. Recovering the forest would be difficult as the savanna will be stabilized by a feedback between tree cover and fire. Here we explore how environmental changes and perturbations affect the forest by using a simple model with alternative tree-cover states. We focus on the synergistic effects of precipitation reduction and deforestation on the probability of regime shifts in the south-eastern Amazon rainforest. The analysis indicated that in a large part of the south-eastern Amazon basin rainforest and savanna could be two alternative states, although massive forest dieback caused by mean-precipitation reduction alone is unlikely. However, combinations of deforestation and climate change triggered up to 6.6 times as many local regime shifts than the two did separately, causing large permanent forest losses in the studied region. The results emphasize the importance of reducing deforestation rates in order to prevent a climate-induced dieback of the south-eastern Amazon rainforest.     

Explaining fire‐driven landscape transformation during the Initial Burning Period of New Zealand's prehistory

At the time of Māori settlement, ca. 750 years ago, New Zealand's ecosystems experienced catastrophic change, including the introduction of fire to ignition‐limited ecosystems and the resulting widespread loss of forest. While high‐resolution sediment‐charcoal analyses suggest this forest loss was rapid, Māori populations were small and transient during the Initial Burning Period and there is evidence for widespread fire activity in places where there is little archaeological evidence of human presence. These observations beg the question ‘how did small populations manage to transform large areas so rapidly?’ Using a simulation model, we demonstrate how the relationship between time since fire and flammability in New Zealand's forests drives positive feedbacks that allow for rapid and extensive deforestation. Under ignition scenarios mirroring prehuman conditions, the model did not produce significant deforestation – thus, it is extremely unlikely that deforestation could have occurred without human‐initiated burning. Scenarios where ignition was spatio‐temporally random also failed to result in deforestation. Rapid and widespread forest loss occurred in scenarios incorporating spatio‐temporally savvy selection of ignition locations. Targeting ignitions in flammable vegetation was more important than targeting ignitions in years with favourable climatic conditions. However, targeting in space and time concurrently, such that flammable vegetation was ignited during favourable climatic years was the most efficient strategy of those simulated. Following the Initial Burning Period decadal ignitions would have been sufficient to maintain a deforested shrubland/grassland landscape. New Zealand's Initial Burning Period is one of many that occurred across eastern Polynesia following human settlement, and these events have left long‐term legacy effects that remain evident in contemporary landscapes. Improving understanding of how humans shaped environments in New Zealand in the past has implications for eastern Polynesia as a whole.     

Evidence of a tipping point in a southern African savanna?

Many ecosystems exhibit threshold behaviour, where periods of relative stability are punctuated by rapid transitions between alternate stable states when an ecological threshold, or tipping point, is reached. This is of concern in grass-dominated habitats, many of which appear to be on the point of conversion to more wooded vegetation assemblages. However, changes in grass-dominated ecosystems are often difficult to interpret, because it is not always clear whether grasslands are ancient or are anthropogenically derived from past deforestation. As a result, the conservation, maintenance and restoration of ancient grasslands are sometimes neglected.In this study, the history of vegetation change in the savannas of the Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Park, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, are investigated by analysing stable carbon isotopes (δ¹³C) from soil profiles. Without exception, the data show that C₃ dominated thicket, forest, and densely wooded savanna now occur on sites that were previously C₄ grassland or open savanna. Although the drivers of this change are not clear, there is potential for management intervention because tree density can be manipulated through fire, a natural part of this dynamic landscape. The study identified two sites which are at a threshold between C₄ and C₃ dominance, and highlighted them as priorities for conservation management intervention.     

A game theoretical model of deforestation in human-environment relationships

We studied a two-person game regarding deforestation in human-environment relationships. Each landowner manages a single land parcel where the state of land-use is forested, agricultural, or abandoned. The landowner has two strategies available: forest conservation and deforestation. The choice of deforestation provides a high return to the landowner, but it degrades the forest ecosystem services produced on a neighboring land parcel managed by a different landowner. Given spatial interactions between the two landowners, each landowner decides which strategy to choose by comparing the expected discounted utility of each strategy. Expected discounted utility is determined by taking into account the current and future utilities to be received, according to the state transition on the two land parcels. The state transition is described by a Markov chain that incorporates a landowner's choice about whether to deforest and the dynamics of agricultural abandonment and forest regeneration. By considering a stationary distribution of the Markov chain for land-use transitions, we derive explicit conditions for Nash equilibrium. We found that a slow regeneration of forests favors mutual cooperation (forest conservation). As the forest regenerates faster, mutual cooperation transforms to double Nash equilibria (mutual cooperation and mutual defection), and finally mutual defection (deforestation) leads to a unique Nash equilibrium. Two different types of social dilemma emerge in our deforestation game. The stag-hunt dilemma is most likely to occur under an unsustainable resource supply, where forest regenerates extremely slowly but agricultural abandonment happens quite rapidly. In contrast, the prisoner's dilemma is likely under a persistent or circulating supply of resources, where forest regenerates rapidly and agricultural abandonment occurs slowly or rapidly. These results show how humans and the environment mutually shape the dilemma structure in forest management, implying that solutions to dilemmas depend on environmental properties.     

Accounting for multiple ecosystem services in a simulation of land‐use decisions: Does it reduce tropical deforestation?

Conversion of tropical forests is among the primary causes of global environmental change. The loss of their important environmental services has prompted calls to integrate ecosystem services (ES) in addition to socio‐economic objectives in decision‐making. To test the effect of accounting for both ES and socio‐economic objectives in land‐use decisions, we develop a new dynamic approach to model deforestation scenarios for tropical mountain forests. We integrate multi‐objective optimization of land allocation with an innovative approach to consider uncertainty spaces for each objective. These uncertainty spaces account for potential variability among decision‐makers, who may have different expectations about the future. When optimizing only socio‐economic objectives, the model continues the past trend in deforestation (1975–2015) in the projected land‐use allocation (2015–2070). Based on indicators for biomass production, carbon storage, climate and water regulation, and soil quality, we show that considering multiple ES in addition to the socio‐economic objectives has heterogeneous effects on land‐use allocation. It saves some natural forest if the natural forest share is below 38%, and can stop deforestation once the natural forest share drops below 10%. For landscapes with high shares of forest (38%–80% in our study), accounting for multiple ES under high uncertainty of their indicators may, however, accelerate deforestation. For such multifunctional landscapes, two main effects prevail: (a) accelerated expansion of diversified non‐natural areas to elevate the levels of the indicators and (b) increased landscape diversification to maintain multiple ES, reducing the proportion of natural forest. Only when accounting for vascular plant species richness as an explicit objective in the optimization, deforestation was consistently reduced. Aiming for multifunctional landscapes may therefore conflict with the aim of reducing deforestation, which we can quantify here for the first time. Our findings are relevant for identifying types of landscapes where this conflict may arise and to better align respective policies.     

Satellite‐based estimates reveal widespread forest degradation in the Amazon

Anthropogenic and natural forest disturbance cause ecological damage and carbon emissions. Forest disturbance in the Amazon occurs in the form of deforestation (conversion of forest to non‐forest land covers), degradation from the extraction of forest resources, and destruction from natural events. The crucial role of the Amazon rainforest in the hydrologic cycle has even led to the speculation of a disturbance “tipping point” leading to a collapse of the tropical ecosystem. Here we use time series analysis of Landsat data to map deforestation, degradation, and natural disturbance in the Amazon Ecoregion from 1995 to 2017. The map was used to stratify the study area for selection of sample units that were assigned reference labels based on their land cover and disturbance history. An unbiased statistical estimator was applied to the sample of reference observations to obtain estimates of area and uncertainty at biennial time intervals. We show that degradation and natural disturbance, largely during periods of severe drought, have affected as much of the forest area in the Amazon Ecoregion as deforestation from 1995 to 2017. Consequently, an estimated 17% (1,036,800 ± 24,800 km², 95% confidence interval) of the original forest area has been disturbed as of 2017. Our results suggest that the area of disturbed forest in the Amazon is 44%–60% more than previously realized, indicating an unaccounted for source of carbon emissions and pervasive damage to forest ecosystems.     

Forest Transition in Xishuangbanna,Yunnan

Forest transition is a process of overall forest cover from net loss to net gain over time. Forest transition especially the process after turning point from deforestation to reforestation has inspired lots of researches for its potential to improve environmental services. China has undergone forest transition since the 1980s. However, in tropical China, deforestation was still existed, while the overall forest cover increased greatly. To investigate this issue, we conducted this research by classifying overall forest into natural forest and plantation in Xishuangbanna, which has undergone forest transition and deforestation and overall forest cover increasing. We found that natural forest continues decreasing while overall forest cover increasing and plantation expansion in forest transition. The forest transition in Xishuangbanna was found to be a tree cover transition, which was mainly contributed by large plantation expansion. In Xishuangbanna, deforestation is still undergoing after its overall forest cover transition occurred in 1988. The general overall forest definition used by forest transition will not be able to recognize deforestation when natural forests are displaced by plantations because the overall forest cover remains unchanged or even increasing. We therefore recommended to classify forest types in forest transition researches.     

Nitrogen deposition in tropical forests from savanna and deforestation fires

We used satellite‐derived estimates of global fire emissions and a chemical transport model to estimate atmospheric nitrogen (N) fluxes from savanna and deforestation fires in tropical ecosystems. N emissions and reactive N deposition led to a net transport of N equatorward, from savannas and areas undergoing deforestation to tropical forests. Deposition of fire‐emitted N in savannas was only 26% of emissions – indicating a net export from this biome. On average, net N loss from fires (the sum of emissions and deposition) was equivalent to approximately 22% of biological N fixation (BNF) in savannas (4.0 kg N ha^?1 yr^?1) and 38% of BNF in ecosystems at the deforestation frontier (9.3 kg N ha^?1 yr^?1). Net N gains from fires occurred in interior tropical forests at a rate equivalent to 3% of their BNF (0.8 kg N ha^?1 yr^?1). This percentage was highest for African tropical forests in the Congo Basin (15%; 3.4 kg N ha^?1 yr^?1) owing to equatorward transport from frequently burning savannas north and south of the basin. These results provide evidence for cross‐biome atmospheric fluxes of N that may help to sustain productivity in some tropical forest ecosystems on millennial timescales. Anthropogenic fires associated with slash and burn agriculture and deforestation in the southern part of the Amazon Basin and across Southeast Asia have substantially increased N deposition in these regions in recent decades and may contribute to increased rates of carbon accumulation in secondary forests and other N‐limited ecosystems.     

Characterizing a tropical deforestation wave: a dynamic spatial analysis of a deforestation hotspot in the Colombian Amazon

Tropical deforestation is the major contemporary threat to global biodiversity, because a diminishing extent of tropical forests supports the majority of the Earth's biodiversity. Forest clearing is often spatially concentrated in regions where human land use pressures, either planned or unplanned, increase the likelihood of deforestation. However, it is not a random process, but often moves in waves originating from settled areas. We investigate the spatial dynamics of land cover change in a tropical deforestation hotspot in the Colombian Amazon. We apply a forest cover zoning approach which permitted: calculation of colonization speed; comparative spatial analysis of patterns of deforestation and regeneration; analysis of spatial patterns of mature and recently regenerated forests; and the identification of local‐level hotspots experiencing the fastest deforestation or regeneration. The colonization frontline moved at an average of 0.84 km yr^?1 from 1989 to 2002, resulting in the clearing of 3400 ha yr^?1 of forests beyond the 90% forest cover line. The dynamics of forest clearing varied across the colonization front according to the amount of forest in the landscape, but was spatially concentrated in well‐defined ‘local hotspots’ of deforestation and forest regeneration. Behind the deforestation front, the transformed landscape mosaic is composed of cropping and grazing lands interspersed with mature forest fragments and patches of recently regenerated forests. We discuss the implications of the patterns of forest loss and fragmentation for biodiversity conservation within a framework of dynamic conservation planning.     

云南西双版纳地区森林转型特征(英文)

森林转型是指森林覆盖率由净减少到净增加的过程。中国森林早在20世纪80年代就进入了转型期,然而,中国热带地区的总森林覆盖率虽呈增长趋势,但依旧存在着天然林大量被毁的现象。鉴于天然林对森林生态系统功能的重要作用,本研究通过加入森林类型分类的内容,以西双版纳为例探讨其森林转型的真实特征。结果表明:森林转型理论单纯以"总森林"覆盖率为研究对象,忽视了其他森林类型的动态变化,甚至掩盖了"天然林"的真实动态变化。西双版纳的森林转型主要是人工种植林的扩张所致,只是树木数量统计上的转型。事实上,自1988年以来,西双版纳的天然林一直在锐减。所以建议未来关于森林转型的研究应将"森林"区分成不同的森林类型加以研究。     

Integrating spatially explicit habitat projections into extinction risk assessments: a reassessment of Amazonian avifauna incorporating projected deforestation

Aim We aimed to complete the first systematic assessment of extinction risk based on projected population declines derived from spatially explicit habitat projections for any taxonomic group at a regional scale, to use the outputs to ascertain the efficacy of an existing protected area network in covering species of conservation concern, and identify gaps therein. Location This study focused on Amazonia; an area of exceptional biodiversity, currently experiencing the highest absolute rate of forest loss globally but where the proportion of species assessed as ‘threatened’ on the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List in the region is below global averages. Methods For all forest‐dependent Amazonian bird species (814), we revised extinction risk estimates by combining data from a spatially explicit deforestation model with generation length estimates. By overlaying distribution maps for these revised threatened species, we identified crisis areas (areas of projected deforestation supporting the highest numbers of threatened species), refugia (areas projected to retain forest supporting the highest numbers of threatened species) and areas of high irreplaceability: short‐ and long‐term priorities for new protected areas (PAs). Results The number of species qualifying as threatened rose substantially from 24 (3%) to 64–92 (8–11%). Areas of particular concern are the crisis and highly irreplaceable areas within the ‘arc of deforestation’ in the southern Brazilian Amazon states of Rondônia, Mato Grosso and Pará. Main conclusions Through a novel application of the IUCN Red List criteria, we present a spatially accurate rendering of the extinction risks of Amazonian birds. Important areas in the Amazon are not secure. We identify priorities for expansion of the PAs network and key locations where protection should be enforced. We recommend a collaborative approach employing our methods to repeat this process for other taxonomic groups.     

Carrot or Stick? Modelling How Landowner Behavioural Responses Can Cause Incentive-Based Forest Governance to Backfire

Mitigating the negative impacts of declining worldwide forest cover remains a significant socio-ecological challenge, due to the dominant role of human decision-making. Here we use a Markov chain model of land-use dynamics to examine the impact of governance on forest cover in a region. Each land parcel can be either forested or barren (deforested), and landowners decide whether to deforest their parcel according to perceived value (utility). We focus on three governance strategies: yearly incentive for conservation, one-time penalty for deforestation and one-time incentive for reforestation. The incentive and penalty are incorporated into the expected utility of forested land, which decreases the net gain of deforestation. By analyzing the equilibrium and stability of the landscape dynamics, we observe four possible outcomes: a stationary-forested landscape, a stationary-deforested landscape, an unstable landscape fluctuating near the equilibrium, and a cyclic-forested landscape induced by synchronized deforestation. We find that the two incentive-based strategies often result in highly fluctuating forest cover over decadal time scales or longer, and in a few cases, reforestation incentives actually decrease the average forest cover. In contrast, a penalty for deforestation results in the stable persistence of forest cover (generally >30%). The idea that larger conservation incentives will always yield higher and more stable forest cover is not supported in our findings. The decision to deforest is influenced by more than a simple, “rational” cost-benefit analysis: social learning and myopic, stochastic decision-making also have important effects. We conclude that design of incentive programs may need to account for potential counter-productive long-term effects due to behavioural feedbacks.