Fixation probabilities and effective population numbers in diploid populations with overlapping generations

A finite diploid population, observed at times t = 0, 1, 2,…, is studied. An individual is said to be in age group i at time t if its age is between i and i + 1 units at that time, where i ? 1. It is assumed that the number of individuals in a particular age-sex class is the same for every t and that the probability that a male offspring was produced by a mating of a male in age group i and a female in age group j is p_ij^m (with a corresponding probability p^f_ij for a female offspring), regardless of when the individual is born. The probability of ultimate fixation of an allele A₁ and the inbreeding effective number, for large populations, is calculated under the further assumptions that A₁ is neutral and that mating is random, given the ages of the mates.     

Minimization of rate of inbreeding for small populations with overlapping generations

We propose a method that minimizes the rate of inbreeding (delta F) for small unselected populations with overlapping generations and several reproductive age classes. It minimizes the increase in coancestry of parents and optimizes the contribution of each selection candidate. The carrying capacity of the population is limited to a fixed number of animals per year. When survival rate equalled 100%, only animals from the oldest age class were selected, which maximized the number of parents per generation, slowed down the turnover of generations and minimized the increase of coancestry across sublines. However, the population became split into sublines separated by age classes, which substantially increased inbreeding within sublines. Sublines were prevented by a restriction of selecting at least one sire and one dam from the second-oldest age class, which resulted in an L times lower delta F, where L equals the average generation interval of sires and dams. Minimum coancestry mating resulted in lower levels of inbreeding than random mating, but delta F was approximately the same. For schemes where the oldest animals were selected, delta F increased by 18-52% compared with the proposed method.     

Fixation probabilities in evolutionary game dynamics with a two-strategy game in finite diploid populations

Fixation processes in evolutionary game dynamics in finite diploid populations are investigated. Traditionally, frequency dependent evolutionary dynamics is modeled as deterministic replicator dynamics. This implies that the infinite size of the population is assumed implicitly. In nature, however, population sizes are finite. Recently, stochastic processes in finite populations have been introduced in order to study finite size effects in evolutionary game dynamics. One of the most significant studies on evolutionary dynamics in finite populations was carried out by Nowak et al. which describes “one-third law” [Nowak, et al., 2004. Emergence of cooperation and evolutionary stability in finite populations. Nature 428, 646-650]. It states that under weak selection, if the fitness of strategy α is greater than that of strategy β when α has a frequency , strategy α fixates in a β-population with selective advantage. In their study, it is assumed that the inheritance of strategies is asexual, i.e. the population is haploid. In this study, we apply their framework to a diploid population that plays a two-strategy game with two ESSs (a bistable game). The fixation probability of a mutant allele in this diploid population is derived. A “three-tenth law” for a completely recessive mutant allele and a “two-fifth law” for a completely dominant mutant allele are found; other cases are also discussed.     

Prediction of genetic contributions and generation intervals in populations with overlapping generations under selection

A method to predict long-term genetic contributions of ancestors to future generations is studied in detail for a population with overlapping generations under mass or sib index selection. An existing method provides insight into the mechanisms determining the flow of genes through selected populations, and takes account of selection by modeling the long-term genetic contribution as a linear regression on breeding value. Total genetic contributions of age classes are modeled using a modified gene flow approach and long-term predictions are obtained assuming equilibrium genetic parameters. Generation interval was defined as the time in which genetic contributions sum to unity, which is equal to the turnover time of genes. Accurate predictions of long-term genetic contributions of individual animals, as well as total contributions of age classes were obtained. Due to selection, offspring of young parents had an above-average breeding value. Long-term genetic contributions of youngest age classes were therefore higher than expected from the age class distribution of parents, and generation interval was shorter than the average age of parents at birth of their offspring. Due to an increased selective advantage of offspring of young parents, generation interval decreased with increasing heritability and selection intensity. The method was compared to conventional gene flow and showed more accurate predictions of long-term genetic contributions.     

Selection in populations with overlapping generations. VI. Rates of change of gene frequency and population growth rate

Two methods (Methods 1 and 2) are used to derive approximate equations describing the rates of change of gene frequency and population growth rate in an age-structured population which is not subject to density-dependent limitation of numbers. Method 2 gives equations which are closely related to Fisher's Malthusian parameter equations, and are good approximations even with quite strong selection (30% selection coefficients) in the case of a single autosomal locus. When there is strong heterotic selection, however, Method 2 gives a bad fit to the population's behaviour in the neighbourhood of equilibrium, but a good fit elsewhere. Method 1 gives a good fit near equilibrium, but a bad fit when gene frequencies change rapidly. With strong heterotic selection, therefore, no single set of selection parameters is adequate, but in other single locus cases, the genotypic intrinsic rates of increases may be used, except when selection is very intense. In multilocus situations it is shown that further specializing assumptions have to be made for this to be true. The asymptotic states of populations under various selection regimes are determined for the case of a single locus with two alleles, when the direction of selective differences remains constant throughout the life-span of an individual.     

Methods for minimizing the loss of genetic diversity in conserved populations with overlapping generations

Minimization of the average coancestry in a population has been theoretically proven to be the most efficient method to preserve genetic diversity. In the present study, based on a population genetic model, two methods to minimize the average coancestry in populations with overlapping generations were developed. For a given parental coancestry structure, the first method (OG) minimizes the average coancestry in the next generation, and the second method (LT) is designed to minimize the long-term accumulation of coancestry. The efficiencies of the two methods were examined by stochastic simulation. Compared to random choice of parents, the annual effective population sizes under the two proposed methods increased 2–3 folds. The difference among the two methods was small in a population with short generation interval. For populations with long generation intervals, the OG method showed a slightly larger annual effective size in an initial few years. However, in the subsequent years, the LT method gave a 5–15% larger annual effective size than the OG method. From these results, it is suggested that the LT method would be preferred to the OG method in most practical situations.     

Cyclical dynamics under constant selection against mutations in haploid and diploid populations with facultative selfing

We have found that constant selection against mutations can cause cyclical dynamics in a population with facultative selfing. When this happens, the distribution of the number of deleterious mutations per genotype fluctuates with the period approximately 1/sHe generations, where sHe is the coefficient of selection against a heterozygous mutation. The amplitude of oscillations of the mean population fitness often exceeds an order of magnitude. Cyclical dynamics can occur under intermediate selfing rates if selection against heterozygous mutations is weak and selection against homozygous mutations is much stronger. Cycling is possible without epistasis or with diminishing-returns epistasis, but not with synergistic epistasis. Under multiplicative selection, cycling might happen if the haploid mutation rate exceeds 1.9 in the case of selfing of haploids, and if this diploid mutation rate exceeds 4.5 in the case of selfing of diploids. We propose a heuristic explanation for cycling under facultative selfing and discuss its possible relevance.     

Cumulative frequency-dependent selective episodes allow for rapid morph cycles and rock-paper-scissors dynamics in species with overlapping generations

Rock-paper-scissors (RPS) dynamics, which maintain genetic polymorphisms over time through negative frequency-dependent (FD) selection, can evolve in short-lived species with no generational overlap, where they produce rapid morph frequency cycles. However, most species have overlapping generations and thus, rapid RPS dynamics are thought to require stronger FD selection, the existence of which yet needs to be proved. Here, we experimentally demonstrate that two cumulative selective episodes, FD sexual selection reinforced by FD selection on offspring survival, generate sufficiently strong selection to generate rapid morph frequency cycles in the European common lizard Zootoca vivipara, a multi-annual species with major generational overlap. These findings show that the conditions required for the evolution of RPS games are fulfilled by almost all species exhibiting genetic polymorphisms and suggest that RPS games may be responsible for the maintenance of genetic diversity in a wide range of species.     

Evolutionary dynamics of finite populations in games with polymorphic fitness equilibria

The hawk-dove (HD) game, as defined by Maynard Smith [1982. Evolution and the Theory of Games. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge], allows for a polymorphic fitness equilibrium (PFE) to exist between its two pure strategies; this polymorphism is the attractor of the standard replicator dynamics [Taylor, P.D., Jonker, L., 1978. Evolutionarily stable strategies and game dynamics. Math. Biosci. 40, 145-156; Hofbauer, J., Sigmund, K., 1998. Evolutionary Games and Population Dynamics. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge] operating on an infinite population of pure-strategists. Here, we consider stochastic replicator dynamics, operating on a finite population of pure-strategists playing games similar to HD; in particular, we examine the transient behavior of the system, before it enters an absorbing state due to sampling error. Though stochastic replication prevents the population from fixing onto the PFE, selection always favors the under-represented strategy. Thus, we may naively expect that the mean population state (of the pre-absorption transient) will correspond to the PFE. The empirical results of Fogel et al. [1997. On the instability of evolutionary stable states. BioSystems 44, 135-152] show that the mean population state, in fact, deviates from the PFE with statistical significance. We provide theoretical results that explain their observations. We show that such deviation away from the PFE occurs when the selection pressures that surround the fitness-equilibrium point are asymmetric. Further, we analyze a Markov model to prove that a finite population will generate a distribution over population states that equilibrates selection-pressure asymmetry; the mean of this distribution is generally not the fitness-equilibrium state.     

Evolutionary game dynamics in finite populations with strong selection and weak mutation

We study stochastic game dynamics in finite populations. To this end we extend the classical Moran process to incorporate frequency-dependent selection and mutation. For 2 x 2 games, we give a complete analysis of the long-run behavior when mutation rates are small. For 3 x 3 coordination games, we provide a simple rule to determine which strategy will be selected in large populations. The expected motion in our model resembles the standard replicator dynamics when the population is large, but is qualitatively different when the population is small. Our analysis shows that even in large finite populations the behavior of a replicator-like system can be different from that of the standard replicator dynamics. As an application, we consider selective language dynamics. We determine which language will be spoken in finite large populations. The results have an intuitive interpretation but would not be expected from an analysis of the replicator dynamics.     

The different limits of weak selection and the evolutionary dynamics of finite populations

Evolutionary theory often resorts to weak selection, where different individuals have very similar fitness. Here, we relate two ways to introduce weak selection. The first considers evolutionary games described by payoff matrices with similar entries. This approach has recently attracted a lot of interest in the context of evolutionary game dynamics in finite populations. The second way to introduce weak selection is based on small distances in phenotype space and is a standard approach in kin-selection theory. Whereas both frameworks are interchangeable for constant fitness, frequency-dependent selection shows significant differences between them. We point out the difference between both limits of weak selection and discuss the condition under which the differences vanish. It turns out that this condition is fulfilled by the popular parametrization of the prisoner's dilemma in benefits and costs. However, for general payoff matrices differences between the two frameworks prevail.