Synthesizing Global and Local Datasets to Estimate Jurisdictional Forest Carbon Fluxes in Berau,Indonesia

Background

Forest conservation efforts are increasingly being implemented at the scale of sub-national jurisdictions in order to mitigate global climate change and provide other ecosystem services. We see an urgent need for robust estimates of historic forest carbon emissions at this scale, as the basis for credible measures of climate and other benefits achieved. Despite the arrival of a new generation of global datasets on forest area change and biomass, confusion remains about how to produce credible jurisdictional estimates of forest emissions. We demonstrate a method for estimating the relevant historic forest carbon fluxes within the Regency of Berau in eastern Borneo, Indonesia. Our method integrates best available global and local datasets, and includes a comprehensive analysis of uncertainty at the regency scale.

Principal Findings and Significance

We find that Berau generated 8.91 ± 1.99 million tonnes of net CO₂ emissions per year during 2000–2010. Berau is an early frontier landscape where gross emissions are 12 times higher than gross sequestration. Yet most (85%) of Berau’s original forests are still standing. The majority of net emissions were due to conversion of native forests to unspecified agriculture (43% of total), oil palm (28%), and fiber plantations (9%). Most of the remainder was due to legal commercial selective logging (17%). Our overall uncertainty estimate offers an independent basis for assessing three other estimates for Berau. Two other estimates were above the upper end of our uncertainty range. We emphasize the importance of including an uncertainty range for all parameters of the emissions equation to generate a comprehensive uncertainty estimate–which has not been done before. We believe comprehensive estimates of carbon flux uncertainty are increasingly important as national and international institutions are challenged with comparing alternative estimates and identifying a credible range of historic emissions values.     

Land Use Changes and GHG Emissions from Tropical Forest Conversion by Oil Palm Plantations in Riau Province,Indonesia

Increasing prices and demand for biofuel and cooking oil from importer countries have caused a remarkable expansion of oil palm plantations in Indonesia. In this paper, we attempt to monitor the expansion of oil palm plantations on peat land and in tropical forests. We measure the GHG emissions from the land conversion activities at provincial scale. Using Landsat images from three different periods (1990s, 2000s and 2012), we classified LULC of the Riau Province, which is the largest oil palm producing region in Indonesia. A hybrid method of integration, generated by combining automatic processing and manual analysis, yields the best results. We found that the tropical rainforest cover decreased from ∼63% in the 1990s to ∼37% in the 2000s. By 2012, the remaining tropical rainforest cover was only ∼22%. From the 1990s to the 2000s, conversion of forests and peat lands was the primary source of emissions, total CO₂ emitted to the atmosphere was estimated at ∼26.6 million tCO₂.y^-1, with 40.62% and 59.38% of the emissions from conversion of peat lands and forests, respectively. Between 2000 and 2012, the total CO₂ emitted to the atmosphere was estimated at ∼5.2 million tCO₂. y^-1, with 69.94% and 27.62% of the emissions from converted peat lands and converted forests, respectively. The results show that in the Riau Province, the oil palm industry boomed in the period from 1990 to 2000, with transformation of tropical forest and peat land as the primary source of emissions. The decrease of CO₂ emissions in the period from 2000 to 2012 is possibly due to the enforcement of a moratorium on deforestation.     

Will Passive Protection Save Congo Forests?

Central Africa’s tropical forests are among the world’s largest carbon reserves. Historically, they have experienced low rates of deforestation. Pressures to clear land are increasing due to development of infrastructure and livelihoods, foreign investment in agriculture, and shifting land use management, particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The DRC contains the greatest area of intact African forests. These store approximately 22 billion tons of carbon in aboveground live biomass, yet only 10% are protected. Can the status quo of passive protection — forest management that is low or nonexistent — ensure the preservation of this forest and its carbon? We have developed the SimCongo model to simulate changes in land cover and land use based on theorized policy scenarios from 2010 to 2050. Three scenarios were examined: the first (Historical Trends) assumes passive forest protection; the next (Conservation) posits active protection of forests and activation of the national REDD+ action plan, and the last (Agricultural Development) assumes increased agricultural activities in forested land with concomitant increased deforestation. SimCongo is a cellular automata model based on Bayesian statistical methods tailored for the DRC, built with the Dinamica-EGO platform. The model is parameterized and validated with deforestation observations from the past and runs the scenarios from 2010 through 2050 with a yearly time step. We estimate the Historical Trends trajectory will result in average emissions of 139 million t CO₂ year^-1 by the 2040s, a 15% increase over current emissions. The Conservation scenario would result in 58% less clearing than Historical Trends and would conserve carbon-dense forest and woodland savanna areas. The Agricultural Development scenario leads to emissions of 212 million t CO₂ year^-1 by the 2040s. These scenarios are heuristic examples of policy’s influence on forest conservation and carbon storage. Our results suggest that 1) passive protection of the DRC’s forest and woodland savanna is insufficient to reduce deforestation; and 2): enactment of a REDD+ plan or similar conservation measure is needed to actively protect Congo forests, their unique ecology, and their important role in the global carbon cycle.     

区域碳源碳汇的时空格局——以长三角地区为例

长三角地区是世界第六大也是我国综合实力最强的城市群地区,其快速而大规模的城市化也产生了一系列的生态环境问题.本文核算了1995-2010年长三角地区的碳源碳汇并分析了其时空格局演变特征.结果表明： 研究期间,长三角地区的碳汇增长943×10⁴ t,其中,浙江省森林净生态系统生产量的增加是主要贡献,这主要得益于国家2003年起实施的“退耕还林”政策.该地区的碳排放增加3.27×10⁸ t,其中,能源消费和工业过程排放所占比重在2010年达96%.江苏省的排放量与增长速度都位居长三角第一,其以重工业和制造业等高能耗和高碳排的产业结构是造成其碳排放居高不下的主要原因.由于建设用地的净碳排放量增速大于建设用地扩张速度,导致该地区单位面积建设用地的净碳排放强度明显增大,江苏省的建设用地净碳排放强度增速最快.
     

Ecological and environmental effects of land use change in rapid urbanization: The case of hangzhou,China

Land use changes sharply under rapid urbanization, yet its ecological and environmental effects are often neglected in land use decisions. Using the case of Hangzhou, China, we analyze the ecological and environmental effects of land use changes, including ecosystem services value (ESV) and carbon emissions, based on Landsat TM images from 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2014. We found significant ecological and environmental effects of land use changes under rapid urbanization. The value of ecosystem services in Hangzhou decreased from 546.7 million USD in 1995 to 448.97 million USD in 2014, and the ratio of ESV to GDP decreased from 5.8% to 0.6%. The net carbon emissions associated with land use changes increased from 4.26 million tons in 1995 to 15.10 million tons in 2014, mainly due to the increase of built-up land carbon emissions and the decrease of forest land carbon sink. The ESV is unevenly distributed spatially and low ESV spread from the central to the peripheral area. We use scenario analysis to illustrate that economic growth and environmental protection could be coordinated by bringing ecological and environmental effects into land use decisions.     

Environmental change and the carbon balance of Amazonian forests

Extreme climatic events and land‐use change are known to influence strongly the current carbon cycle of Amazonia, and have the potential to cause significant global climate impacts. This review intends to evaluate the effects of both climate and anthropogenic perturbations on the carbon balance of the Brazilian Amazon and to understand how they interact with each other. By analysing the outputs of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report 4 (AR4) model ensemble, we demonstrate that Amazonian temperatures and water stress are both likely to increase over the 21st Century. Curbing deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon by 62% in 2010 relative to the 1990s mean decreased the Brazilian Amazon's deforestation contribution to global land use carbon emissions from 17% in the 1990s and early 2000s to 9% by 2010. Carbon sources in Amazonia are likely to be dominated by climatic impacts allied with forest fires (48.3% relative contribution) during extreme droughts. The current net carbon sink (net biome productivity, NBP) of +0.16 (ranging from +0.11 to +0.21) Pg C year^?1 in the Brazilian Amazon, equivalent to 13.3% of global carbon emissions from land‐use change for 2008, can be negated or reversed during drought years [NBP = ?0.06 (?0.31 to +0.01) Pg C year^?1]. Therefore, reducing forest fires, in addition to reducing deforestation, would be an important measure for minimizing future emissions. Conversely, doubling the current area of secondary forests and avoiding additional removal of primary forests would help the Amazonian gross forest sink to offset approximately 42% of global land‐use change emissions. We conclude that a few strategic environmental policy measures are likely to strengthen the Amazonian net carbon sink with global implications. Moreover, these actions could increase the resilience of the net carbon sink to future increases in drought frequency.     

Determination of tropical deforestation rates and related carbon losses from 1990 to 2010

We estimate changes in forest cover (deforestation and forest regrowth) in the tropics for the two last decades (1990–2000 and 2000–2010) based on a sample of 4000 units of 10 ×10 km size. Forest cover is interpreted from satellite imagery at 30 × 30 m resolution. Forest cover changes are then combined with pan‐tropical biomass maps to estimate carbon losses. We show that there was a gross loss of tropical forests of 8.0 million ha yr^?1 in the 1990s and 7.6 million ha yr^?1 in the 2000s (0.49% annual rate), with no statistically significant difference. Humid forests account for 64% of the total forest cover in 2010 and 54% of the net forest loss during second study decade. Losses of forest cover and Other Wooded Land (OWL) cover result in estimates of carbon losses which are similar for 1990s and 2000s at 887 MtC yr^?1 (range: 646–1238) and 880 MtC yr^?1 (range: 602–1237) respectively, with humid regions contributing two‐thirds. The estimates of forest area changes have small statistical standard errors due to large sample size. We also reduce uncertainties of previous estimates of carbon losses and removals. Our estimates of forest area change are significantly lower as compared to national survey data. We reconcile recent low estimates of carbon emissions from tropical deforestation for early 2000s and show that carbon loss rates did not change between the two last decades. Carbon losses from deforestation represent circa 10% of Carbon emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production during the last decade (2000–2010). Our estimates of annual removals of carbon from forest regrowth at 115 MtC yr^?1 (range: 61–168) and 97 MtC yr^?1 (53–141) for the 1990s and 2000s respectively are five to fifteen times lower than earlier published estimates.     

Quantitative evaluation of atmospheric CO2 sink into forest soils from the tropics to the boreal zone during the past three decades

A model of soil carbon cycling in forest ecosystems was applied to predict the soil carbon balance in nine forest ecosystems from the tropics to the boreal zone during the past three decades (1965–95). The parameters of carbon flows and initial conditions of carbon pools were decided based on data obtained in each forest stand. Assumptions for model calculation were: (i) primary production (i.e. litterfall and root turnover rates) increased with increasing CO₂ concentrations in the atmosphere (10% per 40 p.p.m. CO₂); and (ii) temperature increased by 0.6°C per 100 years, but precipitation changed little. The simulation employed a daily time step and used daily air temperature and precipitation observed near each forest stand over an average year during the last decade. The model calculations suggest that the accumulation of total soil carbon increased 8.5–10.4 tC (ton of carbon) ha^–1 in broad-leaved forests from the tropics to the cool-temperate zone during the past three decades, but the amount of soil carbon (3.0–8.4 tC ha^–1) increased much less in needle forests from the subtropical to boreal zones during the same period. There is a linear relationship between the increasing rate of soil carbon stock during the past three decades (1965–95) in forest stands concerned (R_MS, % per 30 years) and annual mean temperature of their soils (T₀,°C), as: R_MS = 0.34T₀ + 4.1. Based on the data of carbon stock in forest soil in each climate zone reported, the global sink of atmospheric CO₂ into forest soil was roughly estimated to be 42 GtC (billion tons of carbon) per 30 years, which was 1.4 GtC year^–1 on average over the past three decades.     

Annual Carbon Emissions from Deforestation in the Amazon Basin between 2000 and 2010

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) is considered one of the most cost-effective strategies for mitigating climate change. However, historical deforestation and emission rates―critical inputs for setting reference emission levels for REDD+―are poorly understood. Here we use multi-source, time-series satellite data to quantify carbon emissions from deforestation in the Amazon basin on a year-to-year basis between 2000 and 2010. We first derive annual deforestation indicators by using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Vegetation Continuous Fields (MODIS VCF) product. MODIS indicators are calibrated by using a large sample of Landsat data to generate accurate deforestation rates, which are subsequently combined with a spatially explicit biomass dataset to calculate committed annual carbon emissions. Across the study area, the average deforestation and associated carbon emissions were estimated to be 1.59 ± 0.25 M ha•yr⁻¹ and 0.18 ± 0.07 Pg C•yr⁻¹ respectively, with substantially different trends and inter-annual variability in different regions. Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon increased between 2001 and 2004 and declined substantially afterwards, whereas deforestation in the Bolivian Amazon, the Colombian Amazon, and the Peruvian Amazon increased over the study period. The average carbon density of lost forests after 2005 was 130 Mg C•ha⁻¹, ~11% lower than the average carbon density of remaining forests in year 2010 (144 Mg C•ha⁻¹). Moreover, the average carbon density of cleared forests increased at a rate of 7 Mg C•ha⁻¹•yr⁻¹ from 2005 to 2010, suggesting that deforestation has been progressively encroaching into high-biomass lands in the Amazon basin. Spatially explicit, annual deforestation and emission estimates like the ones derived in this study are useful for setting baselines for REDD+ and other emission mitigation programs, and for evaluating the performance of such efforts.     

Soil Respiration and Belowground Carbon Allocation in Mangrove Forests

Mangrove forests cover large areas of tropical and subtropical coastlines. They provide a wide range of ecosystem services that includes carbon storage in above- and below ground biomass and in soils. Carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from soil, or soil respiration is important in the global carbon budget and is sensitive to increasing global temperature. To understand the magnitude of mangrove soil respiration and the influence of forest structure and temperature on the variation in mangrove soil respiration I assessed soil respiration at eleven mangrove sites, ranging from latitude 27°N to 37°S. Mangrove soil respiration was similar to those observed for terrestrial forest soils. Soil respiration was correlated with leaf area index (LAI) and aboveground net primary production (litterfall), which should aid scaling up to regional and global estimates of soil respiration. Using a carbon balance model, total belowground carbon allocation (TBCA) per unit litterfall was similar in tall mangrove forests as observed in terrestrial forests, but in scrub mangrove forests TBCA per unit litter fall was greater than in terrestrial forests, suggesting mangroves allocate a large proportion of their fixed carbon below ground under unfavorable environmental conditions. The response of soil respiration to soil temperature was not a linear function of temperature. At temperatures below 26°C Q10 of mangrove soil respiration was 2.6, similar to that reported for terrestrial forest soils. However in scrub forests soil respiration declined with increasing soil temperature, largely because of reduced canopy cover and enhanced activity of photosynthetic benthic microbial communities.     

内蒙古土地利用变化对生态系统防风固沙功能的影响

土壤风蚀是内蒙古的严重环境问题之一。在对内蒙古2000年到2010年的土地利用变化特征进行分析的基础上,分析了内蒙古土地利用变化的主要特征,以RWEQ模型估算了内蒙古2000年和2010年的固沙物质量,采用空间统计分析评估了固沙功能对土地利用变化的响应,结果表明:(1)2000—2010年土地利用变化以城镇高速发展、草地和湿地面积锐减、林地灌丛有所恢复以及荒漠环境改善为主要特征。(2)2000—2010的十年间内蒙古固沙物质总量增长了17.75%,草地总面积虽有所降低,但是部分区域草地覆盖度的上升增强了草地固沙能力,而林地的固沙物质量则由于农田、草地改为林地的短期内地表保护力的下降而有所降低。(3)十年间农田退耕还草、荒漠环境的改善、草地质量提高等土地利用变化方式有益于生态环境质量的提高,使生态防风固沙功能得以增强,造成固沙物质量提高了约0.25亿t。(4)农田开垦、城镇发展、荒漠化发展、湿地萎缩以及草地的退化等土地利用变化会使生态环境质量降低,生态系统防风固沙功能下降,累计造成的固沙物质量的减少总量约为0.19亿t。从十年间综合来看,内蒙古的土地利用变化对区域固沙功能有一定的增强作用,但是尚存在城镇发展过快、草地湿地转化压力过大、草地退化、荒漠化对固沙功能的弱化问题,需要在今后的土地利用规划和管理工作中予以改进以进一步增强区域固沙功能,构建北方地区生态安全屏障。     

Towards Regional,Error-Bounded Landscape Carbon Storage Estimates for Data-Deficient Areas of the World

Monitoring landscape carbon storage is critical for supporting and validating climate change mitigation policies. These may be aimed at reducing deforestation and degradation, or increasing terrestrial carbon storage at local, regional and global levels. However, due to data-deficiencies, default global carbon storage values for given land cover types such as ‘lowland tropical forest’ are often used, termed ‘Tier 1 type’ analyses by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Such estimates may be erroneous when used at regional scales. Furthermore uncertainty assessments are rarely provided leading to estimates of land cover change carbon fluxes of unknown precision which may undermine efforts to properly evaluate land cover policies aimed at altering land cover dynamics. Here, we present a repeatable method to estimate carbon storage values and associated 95% confidence intervals (CI) for all five IPCC carbon pools (aboveground live carbon, litter, coarse woody debris, belowground live carbon and soil carbon) for data-deficient regions, using a combination of existing inventory data and systematic literature searches, weighted to ensure the final values are regionally specific. The method meets the IPCC ‘Tier 2’ reporting standard. We use this method to estimate carbon storage over an area of33.9 million hectares of eastern Tanzania, reporting values for 30 land cover types. We estimate that this area stored 6.33 (5.92–6.74) Pg C in the year 2000. Carbon storage estimates for the same study area extracted from five published Africa-wide or global studies show a mean carbon storage value of ∼50% of that reported using our regional values, with four of the five studies reporting lower carbon storage values. This suggests that carbon storage may have been underestimated for this region of Africa. Our study demonstrates the importance of obtaining regionally appropriate carbon storage estimates, and shows how such values can be produced for a relatively low investment.     

Aboveground Forest Biomass and the Global Carbon Balance

The long‐term net flux of carbon between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere has been dominated by two factors: changes in the area of forests and per hectare changes in forest biomass resulting from management and regrowth. While these factors are reasonably well documented in countries of the northern mid‐latitudes as a result of systematic forest inventories, they are uncertain in the tropics. Recent estimates of carbon emissions from tropical deforestation have focused on the uncertainty in rates of deforestation. By using the same data for biomass, however, these studies have underestimated the total uncertainty of tropical emissions and may have biased the estimates. In particular, regional and country‐specific estimates of forest biomass reported by three successive assessments of tropical forest resources by the FAO indicate systematic changes in biomass that have not been taken into account in recent estimates of tropical carbon emissions. The ‘changes’ more likely represent improved information than real on‐the‐ground changes in carbon storage. In either case, however, the data have a significant effect on current estimates of carbon emissions from the tropics and, hence, on understanding the global carbon balance.     

黑龙江省温带森林火灾碳排放的计量估算

森林火灾干扰作为森林生态系统重要的干扰因子,剧烈地改变着森林生态系统的结构、功能、格局与过程,对区域乃至全球的碳循环与碳平衡产生重要影响。随着全球气候变暖,森林火灾干扰的频率和强度进一步加剧,其排放的含碳气体对大气中温室气体浓度的贡献率更大,进而加快气候变暖的速率。科学有效地对森林火灾碳排放及含碳气体排放量进行计量估算,对了解区域乃至全球的碳循环及碳平衡具有重要的理论价值和实践意义。根据黑龙江省温带森林1953—2012年火灾统计资料和森林调查数据,结合地理信息系统GIS技术,通过野外火烧迹地调查以及实验室的控制环境实验来确定森林火灾碳排放计量中的各种参数,在林分水平上,利用排放因子的方法,估算了黑龙江省温带森林60年间火灾碳排放量和含碳气体排放量。结果表明:黑龙江省温带森林60年间火灾碳排放量为5.88×107t,年均排放量为9.80×105t,约占全国年均森林火灾碳排放量的8.66%;含碳气体CO2、CO、CH4和非甲烷烃(nonmethane hydrocarbons,NMHC)的排放量分别为1.89×108、1.06×107、6.33×105和4.43×105t,含碳气体CO2、CO、CH4和NMHC的年均排放量分别为3.15×106、1.77×105、1.05×104和7.38×103t,分别占全国年均森林火灾各含碳气体排放量的7.74%、6.52%、9.42%和6.53%。研究发现针阔混交林型的森林火灾面积占总过火林地面积的57.54%,由于其燃烧效率较低,在森林火灾中的碳排放量仅占排放总量的38.57%;尤其是针阔混交林森林火灾面积占总过火林地面积的20.71%,而碳排放量仅占总排放量的9.67%;且CO2的排放因子较低,其CO2排放量仅占总排放量的8.95%。同时研究表明,黑龙江省温带森林年均的碳排放对该区域的碳循环与碳平衡产生重要影响,并针对研究结果提出了应对气候变化的森林经营可持续管理策略,亦提出了科学的林火管理策略及其合理化的林火管理路径。     

Carbon cost of collective farming collapse in Russia

The collapse of collective farming in Russia after 1990 and the subsequent economic crisis led to the abandonment of more than 45 million ha of arable lands (23% of the agricultural area). This was the most widespread and abrupt land use change in the 20th century in the northern hemisphere. The withdrawal of land area from cultivation led to several benefits including carbon (C) sequestration. Here, we provide a geographically complete and spatially detailed analysis of C sequestered in these abandoned lands. The average C accumulation rate in the upper 20 cm of mineral soil was 0.96 ± 0.08 Mg C ha^?1 yr^?1 for the first 20 years after abandonment and 0.19 ± 0.10 Mg C ha^?1 yr^?1 during the next 30 years of postagrogenic evolution and natural vegetation establishment. The amount of C sequestered over the period 1990–2009 accounts to 42.6 ± 3.8 Tg C per year. This C sequestration rate is equivalent to ca. 10% of the annual C sink in all Russian forests. Furthermore, it compensates all fire and postfire CO₂ emissions in Russia and covers about 4% of the global CO₂ release due to deforestation and other land use changes. Our assessment shows a significant mitigation of increasing atmospheric CO₂ by prolonged C accumulation in Russian soils caused by collective farming collapse.     

Complex Spatiotemporal Responses of Global Terrestrial Primary Production to Climate Change and Increasing Atmospheric CO2 in the 21st Century

Quantitative information on the response of global terrestrial net primary production (NPP) to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO₂ is essential for climate change adaptation and mitigation in the 21^st century. Using a process-based ecosystem model (the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model, DLEM), we quantified the magnitude and spatiotemporal variations of contemporary (2000s) global NPP, and projected its potential responses to climate and CO₂ changes in the 21^st century under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B1 of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We estimated a global terrestrial NPP of 54.6 (52.8–56.4) PgC yr⁻¹ as a result of multiple factors during 2000–2009. Climate change would either reduce global NPP (4.6%) under the A2 scenario or slightly enhance NPP (2.2%) under the B1 scenario during 2010–2099. In response to climate change, global NPP would first increase until surface air temperature increases by 1.5°C (until the 2030s) and then level-off or decline after it increases by more than 1.5°C (after the 2030s). This result supports the Copenhagen Accord Acknowledgement, which states that staying below 2°C may not be sufficient and the need to potentially aim for staying below 1.5°C. The CO₂ fertilization effect would result in a 12%–13.9% increase in global NPP during the 21^st century. The relative CO₂ fertilization effect, i.e. change in NPP on per CO₂ (ppm) bases, is projected to first increase quickly then level off in the 2070s and even decline by the end of the 2080s, possibly due to CO₂ saturation and nutrient limitation. Terrestrial NPP responses to climate change and elevated atmospheric CO₂ largely varied among biomes, with the largest increases in the tundra and boreal needleleaf deciduous forest. Compared to the low emission scenario (B1), the high emission scenario (A2) would lead to larger spatiotemporal variations in NPP, and more dramatic and counteracting impacts from climate and increasing atmospheric CO₂.     

Warming Reduces Carbon Losses from Grassland Exposed to Elevated Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

The flux of carbon dioxide (CO₂) between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere may ameliorate or exacerbate climate change, depending on the relative responses of ecosystem photosynthesis and respiration to warming temperatures, rising atmospheric CO₂, and altered precipitation. The combined effect of these global change factors is especially uncertain because of their potential for interactions and indirectly mediated conditions such as soil moisture. Here, we present observations of CO₂ fluxes from a multi-factor experiment in semi-arid grassland that suggests a potentially strong climate – carbon cycle feedback under combined elevated [CO₂] and warming. Elevated [CO₂] alone, and in combination with warming, enhanced ecosystem respiration to a greater extent than photosynthesis, resulting in net C loss over four years. The effect of warming was to reduce respiration especially during years of below-average precipitation, by partially offsetting the effect of elevated [CO₂] on soil moisture and C cycling. Carbon losses were explained partly by stimulated decomposition of soil organic matter with elevated [CO₂]. The climate – carbon cycle feedback observed in this semiarid grassland was mediated by soil water content, which was reduced by warming and increased by elevated [CO₂]. Ecosystem models should incorporate direct and indirect effects of climate change on soil water content in order to accurately predict terrestrial feedbacks and long-term storage of C in soil.     

1965–2010年大兴安岭森林火灾碳排放的估算研究

 火干扰是森林生态系统的重要干扰因子, 是导致植被和土壤碳储量发生变化的重要原因。火干扰所排放的含碳气体对气候变化具有重要的影响。科学有效地对森林火灾所排放的碳进行计量, 对了解区域和全球的碳平衡及碳循环具有重要的意义。根据大兴安岭森林资源调查数据和1965–2010年森林火灾统计资料, 利用地理信息系统GIS (geographic information system)技术, 通过野外火烧迹地调查与室内控制环境实验相结合的方法确定各种计量参数, 从林分水平上, 采用排放因子法, 估算了大兴安岭1965–2010年46年间森林火灾所排放的碳和含碳气体量。结果表明: 大兴安岭46年间森林火灾排放的碳为2.93 × 10⁷ t, 年平均排放量为6.38 × 10⁵ t, 约占全国年均森林火灾碳排放量的5.64%; 含碳气体CO₂、CO、CH₄和非甲烷烃(NMHC)的排放量分别为1.02 × 10⁸、9.41 × 10⁶、5.41 × 10⁵和2.11 × 10⁵ t, 含碳气体CO₂、CO、CH₄和NMHC的年均排放量分别为2.22 × 10⁶、2.05 × 10⁵、1.18 × 10⁴和4.59 × 10³ t, 分别占全国年均森林火灾各含碳气体排放量的5.46%、7.56%、10.54%和4.06%; 针阔混交林燃烧效率较低, 虽然火烧面积占总过火面积的21.23%, 但排放的碳只占总排放量的7.81%, 为此提出了相应的林火管理策略。     

Carbon balance in the tundra, boreal forest and humid tropical forest during climate change: scaling up from leaf physiology and soil carbon dynamics

Carbon exchange by the terrestrial biosphere is thought to have changed since pre-industrial times in response to increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO₂ and variations (anomalies) in inter-annual air temperatures. However, the magnitude of this response, particularly that of various ecosystem types (biomes), is uncertain. Terrestrial carbon models can be used to estimate the direction and size of the terrestrial responses expected, providing that these models have a reasonable theoretical base. We formulated a general model of ecosystem carbon fluxes by linking a process-based canopy photosynthesis model to the Rothamsted soil carbon model for biomes that are not significantly affected by water limitation. The difference between net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic soil respiration (R_h) represents net ecosystem production (NEP). The model includes (i) multiple compartments for carbon storage in vegetation and soil organic matter, (ii) the effects of seasonal changes in environmental parameters on annual NEP, and (iii) the effects of inter-annual temperature variations on annual NEP. Past, present and projected changes in atmospheric CO₂ concentration and surface air temperature (at different latitudes) were analysed for their effects on annual NEP in tundra, boreal forest and humid tropical forest biomes. In all three biomes, annual NEP was predicted to increase with CO₂ concentration but to decrease with warming. As CO₂ concentrations and temperatures rise, the positive carbon gains through increased NPP are often outweighed by losses through increased R_h, particularly at high latitudes where global warming has been (and is expected to be) most severe. We calculated that, several times during the past 140 years, both the tundra and boreal forest biomes have switched between being carbon sources (annual NEP negative) and being carbon sinks (annual NEP positive). Most recently, significant warming at high latitudes during 1988 and 1990 caused the tundra and boreal forests to be net carbon sources. Humid tropical forests generally have been a carbon sink since 1960. These modelled responses of the various biomes are in agreement with other estimates from either field measurements or geochemical models. Under projected CO₂ and temperature increases, the tundra and boreal forests will emit increasingly more carbon to the atmosphere while the humid tropical forest will continue to store carbon. Our analyses also indicate that the relative increase in the seasonal amplitude of the accumulated NEP within a year is about 0–14% year^?1 for boreal forests and 0–23% year^?1 in the tundra between 1960 and 1990.     

The carbon budget of the Spanish forests

A model for the calculation of anthropogenic CO₂ emissions from perturbed forests (extraordinary emissions) is described. Timber production as well as wildfire statistics are used, and relevant physicochemical parameters are derived from the literature, to calculate the annual amounts of perturbed biomass and extraordinary emissions to the atmosphere from the Spanish forests — including soils — in the years 1960–1990; these emissions increased from 5.3 10⁶ t (metric tons) of carbon in 1970 to 10.6 10⁶ t C in 1990. A sensitivity analysis of the results has been performed to identify the most critical parameters. Contributions of observed timber growth and natural vegetal detritus and soil organic matter to the net forest carbon flux have been estimated to calculate the carbon budget in the Spanish forests between 1966 and 1974, which represents a net gain of carbon, ranging from 9.2 to 18 millions t. Finally, the methods used to calculate biospheric carbon balance and their results are compared and discussed.