Demographic Genetics of Brown Trout (Salmo Trutta) and Estimation of Effective Population Size from Temporal Change of Allele Frequencies

We studied temporal allele frequency shifts over 15 years and estimated the genetically effective size of four natural populations of brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) on the basis of the variation at 14 polymorphic allozyme loci. The allele frequency differences between consecutive cohorts were significant in all four populations. There were no indications of natural selection, and we conclude that random genetic drift is the most likely cause of temporal allele frequency shifts at the loci examined. Effective population sizes were estimated from observed allele frequency shifts among cohorts, taking into consideration the demographic characteristics of each population. The estimated effective sizes of the four populations range from 52 to 480 individuals, and we conclude that the effective size of natural brown trout populations may differ considerably among lakes that are similar in size and other apparent characteristics. In spite of their different effective sizes all four populations have similar levels of genetic variation (average heterozygosity) indicating that excessive loss of genetic variability has been retarded, most likely because of gene flow among neighboring populations.     

Differentiation with drift: a spatio-temporal genetic analysis of Galápagos mockingbird populations (Mimus spp.)

Small and isolated island populations provide ideal systems to study the effects of limited population size, genetic drift and gene flow on genetic diversity. We assessed genetic diversity within and differentiation among 19 mockingbird populations on 15 Galápagos islands, covering all four endemic species, using 16 microsatellite loci. We tested for signs of drift and gene flow, and used historic specimens to assess genetic change over the last century and to estimate effective population sizes. Within-population genetic diversity and effective population sizes varied substantially among island populations and correlated strongly with island size, suggesting that island size serves as a good predictor for effective population size. Genetic differentiation among populations was pronounced and increased with geographical distance. A century of genetic drift did not change genetic diversity on an archipelago-wide scale, but genetic drift led to loss of genetic diversity in small populations, especially in one of the two remaining populations of the endangered Floreana mockingbird. Unlike in other Galápagos bird species such as the Darwin''s finches, gene flow among mockingbird populations was low. The clear pattern of genetically distinct populations reflects the effects of genetic drift and suggests that Galápagos mockingbirds are evolving in relative isolation.     

Generalized population models and the nature of genetic drift

The Wright–Fisher model of allele dynamics forms the basis for most theoretical and applied research in population genetics. Our understanding of genetic drift, and its role in suppressing the deterministic forces of Darwinian selection has relied on the specific form of sampling inherent to the Wright–Fisher model and its diffusion limit. Here we introduce and analyze a broad class of forward-time population models that share the same mean and variance as the Wright–Fisher model, but may otherwise differ. The proposed class unifies and further generalizes a number of population-genetic processes of recent interest, including the Λ and Cannings processes. Even though these models all have the same variance effective population size, they encode a rich diversity of alternative forms of genetic drift, with significant consequences for allele dynamics. We characterize in detail the behavior of standard population-genetic quantities across this family of generalized models. Some quantities, such as heterozygosity, remain unchanged; but others, such as neutral absorption times and fixation probabilities under selection, deviate by orders of magnitude from the Wright–Fisher model. We show that generalized population models can produce startling phenomena that differ qualitatively from classical behavior — such as assured fixation of a new mutant despite the presence of genetic drift. We derive the forward-time continuum limits of the generalized processes, analogous to Kimura’s diffusion limit of the Wright–Fisher process, and we discuss their relationships to the Kingman and non-Kingman coalescents. Finally, we demonstrate that some non-diffusive, generalized models are more likely, in certain respects, than the Wright–Fisher model itself, given empirical data from Drosophila populations.     

Dynamics of inbreeding depression due to deleterious mutations in small populations: mutation parameters and inbreeding rate

A multilocus stochastic model is developed to simulate the dynamics of mutational load in small populations of various sizes. Old mutations sampled from a large ancestral population at mutation-selection balance and new mutations arising each generation are considered jointly, using biologically plausible lethal and deleterious mutation parameters. The results show that inbreeding depression and the number of lethal equivalents due to partially recessive mutations can be partly purged from the population by inbreeding, and that this purging mainly involves lethals or detrimentals of large effect. However, fitness decreases continuously with inbreeding, due to increased fixation and homozygosity of mildly deleterious mutants, resulting in extinctions of very small populations with low reproductive rates. No optimum inbreeding rate or population size exists for purging with respect to fitness (viability) changes, but there is an optimum inbreeding rate at a given final level of inbreeding for reducing inbreeding depression or the number of lethal equivalents. The interaction between selection against partially recessive mutations and genetic drift in small populations also influences the rate of decay of neutral variation. Weak selection against mutants relative to genetic drift results in apparent overdominance and thus an increase in effective size (Ne) at neutral loci, and strong selection relative to drift leads to a decrease in Ne due to the increased variance in family size. The simulation results and their implications are discussed in the context of biological conservation and tests for purging.     

A Direct Assessment of the Role of Genetic Drift in Determining Allele Frequency Variation in Populations of EUPHYDRYAS EDITHA

Estimates of allele frequencies at six polymorphic loci were collected over eight generations in two populations of Euphydryas editha. We have estimated, in addition, the effective population size for each generation for both populations with results from mark-recapture and other field data. The variation in allele frequencies generated by random genetic drift was then studied using computer simulations and our direct estimates of effective population size. Substantial differences between observed values and computer-generated expected values assuming drift alone were found for three loci (Got, Hk, Pgi) in one population. These observations are consistent with natural selection in a variable environment.     

Dynamic sampling bias and overdispersion induced by skewed offspring distributions

Natural populations often show enhanced genetic drift consistent with a strong skew in their offspring number distribution. The skew arises because the variability of family sizes is either inherently strong or amplified by population expansions. The resulting allele-frequency fluctuations are large and, therefore, challenge standard models of population genetics, which assume sufficiently narrow offspring distributions. While the neutral dynamics backward in time can be readily analyzed using coalescent approaches, we still know little about the effect of broad offspring distributions on the forward-in-time dynamics, especially with selection. Here, we employ an asymptotic analysis combined with a scaling hypothesis to demonstrate that over-dispersed frequency trajectories emerge from the competition of conventional forces, such as selection or mutations, with an emerging time-dependent sampling bias against the minor allele. The sampling bias arises from the characteristic time-dependence of the largest sampled family size within each allelic type. Using this insight, we establish simple scaling relations for allele-frequency fluctuations, fixation probabilities, extinction times, and the site frequency spectra that arise when offspring numbers are distributed according to a power law.     

DOES MATE LIMITATION IN SELF‐INCOMPATIBLE SPECIES PROMOTE THE EVOLUTION OF SELFING? THE CASE OF LEAVENWORTHIA ALABAMICA

Genetic diversity at the S‐locus controlling self‐incompatibility (SI) is often high because of negative frequency‐dependent selection. In species with highly patchy spatial distributions, genetic drift can overwhelm balancing selection and cause stochastic loss of S‐alleles. Natural selection may favor the breakdown of SI in populations with few S‐alleles because low S‐allele diversity constrains the seed production of self‐incompatible plants. We estimated S‐allele diversity, effective population sizes, and migration rates in Leavenworthia alabamica, a self‐incompatible mustard species restricted to discrete habitat patches in rocky glades. Patterns of polymorphism were investigated at the S‐locus and 15 neutral microsatellites in three large and three small populations with 100‐fold variation in glade size. Populations on larger glades maintained more S‐alleles, but all populations were estimated to harbor at least 20 S‐alleles, and mate availabilities typically exceeded 0.80, which is consistent with little mate limitation in nature. Estimates of the effective size (N_e) in each population ranged from 600 to 1600, and estimated rates of migration (m) ranged from 3 × 10⁻⁴ to nearly 1 × 10⁻³. According to theoretical models, there is limited opportunity for genetic drift to reduce S‐allele diversity in populations with these attributes. Although pollinators or resources limit seed production in small glades, limited S‐allele diversity does not appear to be a factor promoting the incipient breakdown of SI in populations of this species that were studied.     

Effective size of harvested ungulate populations

The harvest of ungulate populations is often directed against certain sex or age classes to maximize the yield in terms of biomass, number of shot animals or number of trophies. Here we examine how such directional harvest affects the effective size of the population. We parameterize an age-specific model assumed to describe the dynamics of Fennoscandian moose. Based on expressions for the demographic variance     for a small subpopulation of heterozygotes Aa bearing a rare neutral allele a , we use this model to calculate how different harvest strategies influence the effective size of the population, given that the population remains stable after harvest. We show that the annual genetic drift, determined by     , increases with decreasing harvest rate of calves and increasing sex bias in the harvest towards bulls 1 year or older. The effective population size per generation decreased with reduced harvest of calves and increased harvest of bulls 1 year or older. The magnitude of these effects depends on the age-specific pattern of variation in reproductive success, which influences the demographic variance. This shows that the choice of harvest strategy strongly affects the genetic dynamics of harvested ungulate populations.     

Phenotypic evolution in prehistoric Ohio Amerindians: natural selection versus random genetic drift in tooth size reduction

Many anthropologic investigations involve measurement and analysis of polygenic skeletal and dental traits in prehistoric populations from which genetic details cannot be inferred. However, population genetics concepts can be applied productively to analyses of phenotypic variation in prehistoric human populations. One potentially useful approach, derived from basic quantitative genetics (Lande 1976, p. 314), models the effects of natural selection and random genetic drift on the evolution of the average phenotype in a population. We apply this model to the problem of dental size reduction in three prehistoric Amerindian populations from Ohio. Conversion of mean log-transformed buccolingual diameters for six permanent teeth (maxillary and mandibular I1, M1, and M2) to phenotypic standard deviation units reveals significant size reduction in the maxillary teeth only. By assuming 40 generations (t) between the 2 populations and a narrow heritability (h2) range of 0.30-0.70, the estimated minimum selective mortality required to produce the reductions is 1.8 deaths per 100 persons per generation. Given the same t and h2 values, the effective population size (Ne) needed to reject the neutral hypothesis (i.e., random genetic drift) with 95% confidence is approximately 150. Because paleodemographic and ethnographic studies suggest minimum effective sizes of this magnitude for these populations, we tentatively reject random genetic drift and conclude that selective mortality is most probably responsible for the maxillary tooth size reduction observed.     

Population Genetic Consequences of the Allee Effect and the Role of Offspring-Number Variation

A strong demographic Allee effect in which the expected population growth rate is negative below a certain critical population size can cause high extinction probabilities in small introduced populations. But many species are repeatedly introduced to the same location and eventually one population may overcome the Allee effect by chance. With the help of stochastic models, we investigate how much genetic diversity such successful populations harbor on average and how this depends on offspring-number variation, an important source of stochastic variability in population size. We find that with increasing variability, the Allee effect increasingly promotes genetic diversity in successful populations. Successful Allee-effect populations with highly variable population dynamics escape rapidly from the region of small population sizes and do not linger around the critical population size. Therefore, they are exposed to relatively little genetic drift. It is also conceivable, however, that an Allee effect itself leads to an increase in offspring-number variation. In this case, successful populations with an Allee effect can exhibit less genetic diversity despite growing faster at small population sizes. Unlike in many classical population genetics models, the role of offspring-number variation for the population genetic consequences of the Allee effect cannot be accounted for by an effective-population-size correction. Thus, our results highlight the importance of detailed biological knowledge, in this case on the probability distribution of family sizes, when predicting the evolutionary potential of newly founded populations or when using genetic data to reconstruct their demographic history.     

Effective population size and evolutionary dynamics in outbred laboratory populations of Drosophila

Census population size, sex-ratio and female reproductive success were monitored in 10 laboratory populations of Drosophila melanogaster selected for different ages of reproduction. With this demographic information, we estimated eigenvalue, variance and probability of allele loss effective population sizes. We conclude that estimates of effective size based on gene-frequency change at a few loci are biased downwards. We analysed the relative roles of selection and genetic drift in maintaining genetic variation in laboratory populations of Drosophila. We suggest that rare, favourable genetic variants in our laboratory populations have a high chance of being lost if their fitness effect is weak, e.g. 1% or less. However, if the fitness effect of this variation is 10% or greater, these rare variants are likely to increase to high frequency. The demographic information developed in this study suggests that some of our laboratory populations harbour more genetic variation than expected. One explanation for this finding is that part of the genetic variation in these outbred laboratory Drosophila populations may be maintained by some form of balancing selection. We suggest that, unlike bacteria, medium-term adaptation of laboratory populations of fruit flies is not primarily driven by new mutations, but rather by changes in the frequency of preexisting alleles.     

Genetic Divergence under Uniform Selection. II. Different Responses to Selection for Knockdown Resistance to Ethanol among DROSOPHILA MELANOGASTER Populations and Their Replicate Lines

We have tested the hypothesis that genetic differences among conspecific populations may result in diverse responses to selection, using natural populations of Drosophila melanogaster. Selection for ethanol tolerance in a tube measuring knockdown resistance was imposed on five West Coast populations. In 24 generations the selected lines increased their mean knockdown times, on average, by a factor of 2.7. An initially weak latitudinal cline was steepened by selection. The two southernmost populations showed the same increases in the selected character, but differed consistently in their correlated responses in characters related to ethanol tolerance. This result indicates that the populations responded to selection by different genetic changes. Selection decreased female body weight and increased resistance to acetone, suggesting components of the response unrelated to ethanol metabolism. The Adhs allele was favored by selection in all populations at the onset, but increased in frequency only in the selected lines of the southernmost population. There was a correlation between latitude and Adh frequency changes, suggesting that fitnesses of the Adh alleles were dependent on the genetic background. Genetic background also had a large effect on the loss of fitness due to selection. Genetic drift between replicate lines caused more variation in selection response than initial genetic differences between populations. This result demonstrates the importance of genetic drift in divergence among natural populations undergoing uniform selection, since the effective population sizes approached those of small natural populations. Drift caused greater divergence between selected replicates than control replicates. Implications of this result for the genetic model of selection response are discussed.     

Simulating plasticity as a framework for understanding habitat selection and its role in adaptive capacity and extinction risk through an expansion of CDMetaPOP

Adaptive capacity can present challenges for modelling as it encompasses multiple ecological and evolutionary processes such as natural selection, genetic drift, gene flow and phenotypic plasticity. Spatially explicit, individual-based models provide an outlet for simulating these complex interacting eco-evolutionary processes. We expanded the existing Cost-Distance Meta-POPulation (CDMetaPOP) framework with inducible plasticity modelled as a habitat selection behaviour, using temperature or habitat quality variables, with a genetically based selection threshold conditioned on past individual experience. To demonstrate expected results in the new module, we simulated hypothetical populations and then evaluated model performance in populations of redband trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss gairdneri) across three watersheds where temperatures induce physiological stress in parts of the stream network. We ran simulations using projected warming stream temperature data under four scenarios for alleles that: (1) confer thermal tolerance, (2) bestow plastic habitat selection, (3) give both thermal tolerance and habitat selection preference and (4) do not provide either thermal tolerance or habitat selection. Inclusion of an adaptive allele decreased declines in population sizes, but this impact was greatly reduced in the relatively cool stream networks. As anticipated with the new module, high-temperature patches remained unoccupied by individuals with the allele operating plastically after exposure to warm temperatures. Using complete habitat avoidance above the stressful temperature threshold, habitat selection reduced the overall population size due to the opportunity cost of avoiding areas with increased, but not guaranteed, mortality. Inclusion of plasticity within CDMetaPOP will provide the potential for genetic or plastic traits and ‘rescue’ to affect eco-evolutionary dynamics for research questions and conservation applications.     

Drift,selection and adaptive variation in small populations of a threatened rattlesnake

An important goal of conservation genetics is to determine if the viability of small populations is reduced by a loss of adaptive variation due to genetic drift. Here, we assessed the impact of drift and selection on direct measures of adaptive variation (toxin loci encoding venom proteins) in the eastern massasauga rattlesnake (Sistrurus catenatus), a threatened reptile that exists in small isolated populations. We estimated levels of individual polymorphism in 46 toxin loci and 1,467 control loci across 12 populations of this species, and compared the results with patterns of selection on the same loci following speciation of S. catenatus and its closest relative, the western massasauga (S. tergeminus). Multiple lines of evidence suggest that both drift and selection have had observable impacts on standing adaptive variation. In support of drift effects, we found little evidence for selection on toxin variation within populations and a significant positive relationship between current levels of adaptive variation and long‐ and short‐term estimates of effective population size. However, we also observed levels of directional selection on toxin loci among populations that are broadly similar to patterns predicted from interspecific selection analyses that pre‐date the effects of recent drift, and that functional variation in these loci persists despite small short‐term effective sizes. This suggests that much of the adaptive variation present in populations may represent an example of “drift debt,” a nonequilibrium state where present‐day levels of variation overestimate the amount of functional genetic diversity present in future populations.     

Long-term variation in colour-morph frequencies in the spider Enoplognatha ovata (Glerck) (Araneae: Theridiidae): natural selection, migration and intermittent drift

The spider Enoplognatha ovata is univoltine. It has three principal visible morphs, lineata, redimita and mala , whose genetics are understood. Phenotype frequencies and population sizes have been estimated at 44 sites in a single valley in Yorkshire for periods of up to 15 years. Geographically, recognizable areas of high and low frequencies of redimita and ovata are found, typically a few hundred metres across. Statistically significant frequency differences also exist on a scale of tens of metres between adjacent sites. Temporal variation in lineata allele frequency has been investigated using a weighted regression technique assuming either no deterministic change or a steady change at constant rate. There is little direct evidence for selection but variation within sites is less than would be expected through genetic drift. A negative relationship is demonstrated between initial allele frequency in a site and the direction and rate of allele frequency change with time, suggesting that populations are moving towards a global equilibrium. This conclusion is insensitive to varying assumptions about the relationship between estimated and effective population sizes. Evidence from transplantation experiments and from the most isolated site indicate that both migration and selection contribute to this trend. We suggest that populations were stochastically perturbed from the equilibrium during bottlenecks in population size which resulted from major habitat disturbance about 35 years ago.     

Sexual selection and the evolutionary dynamics of the major histocompatibility complex

The genes of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) are a key component of the adaptive immune system and among the most variable loci in the vertebrate genome. Pathogen-mediated natural selection and MHC-based disassortative mating are both thought to structure MHC polymorphism, but their effects have proven difficult to discriminate in natural systems. Using the first model of MHC dynamics incorporating both survival and reproduction, we demonstrate that natural and sexual selection produce distinctive signatures of MHC allelic diversity with critical implications for understanding host–pathogen dynamics. While natural selection produces the Red Queen dynamics characteristic of host–parasite interactions, disassortative mating stabilizes allele frequencies, damping major fluctuations in dominant alleles and protecting functional variants against drift. This subtle difference generates a complex interaction between MHC allelic diversity and population size. In small populations, the stabilizing effects of sexual selection moderate the effects of drift, whereas pathogen-mediated selection accelerates the loss of functionally important genetic diversity. Natural selection enhances MHC allelic variation in larger populations, with the highest levels of diversity generated by the combined action of pathogen-mediated selection and disassortative mating. MHC-based sexual selection may help to explain how functionally important genetic variation can be maintained in populations of conservation concern.     

A General Model of Negative Frequency Dependent Selection Explains Global Patterns of Human ABO Polymorphism

The ABO locus in humans is characterized by elevated heterozygosity and very similar allele frequencies among populations scattered across the globe. Using knowledge of ABO protein function, we generated a simple model of asymmetric negative frequency dependent selection and genetic drift to explain the maintenance of ABO polymorphism and its loss in human populations. In our models, regardless of the strength of selection, models with large effective population sizes result in ABO allele frequencies that closely match those observed in most continental populations. Populations must be moderately small to fall out of equilibrium and lose either the A or B allele (N_e ≤ 50) and much smaller (N_e ≤ 25) for the complete loss of diversity, which nearly always involved the fixation of the O allele. A pattern of low heterozygosity at the ABO locus where loss of polymorphism occurs in our model is consistent with small populations, such as Native American populations. This study provides a general evolutionary model to explain the observed global patterns of polymorphism at the ABO locus and the pattern of allele loss in small populations. Moreover, these results inform the range of population sizes associated with the recent human colonization of the Americas.     

Genetic Drift of HIV Populations in Culture

Populations of Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) undergo a surprisingly large amount of genetic drift in infected patients despite very large population sizes, which are predicted to be mostly deterministic. Several models have been proposed to explain this phenomenon, but all of them implicitly assume that the process of virus replication itself does not contribute to genetic drift. We developed an assay to measure the amount of genetic drift for HIV populations replicating in cell culture. The assay relies on creation of HIV populations of known size and measurements of variation in frequency of a neutral allele. Using this assay, we show that HIV undergoes approximately ten times more genetic drift than would be expected from its population size, which we defined as the number of infected cells in the culture. We showed that a large portion of the increase in genetic drift is due to non-synchronous infection of target cells. When infections are synchronized, genetic drift for the virus is only 3-fold higher than expected from its population size. Thus, the stochastic nature of biological processes involved in viral replication contributes to increased genetic drift in HIV populations. We propose that appreciation of these effects will allow better understanding of the evolutionary forces acting on HIV in infected patients.     

SPEED OF ADAPTATION AND GENOMIC FOOTPRINTS OF HOST–PARASITE COEVOLUTION UNDER ARMS RACE AND TRENCH WARFARE DYNAMICS

Coevolution between hosts and their parasites is expected to follow a range of possible dynamics, the two extreme cases being called trench warfare (or Red Queen) and arms races. Long‐term stable polymorphism at the host and parasite coevolving loci is characteristic of trench warfare, and is expected to promote molecular signatures of balancing selection, while the recurrent allele fixation in arms races should generate selective sweeps. We compare these two scenarios using a finite size haploid gene‐for‐gene model that includes both mutation and genetic drift. We first show that trench warfare do not necessarily display larger numbers of coevolutionary cycles per unit of time than arms races. We subsequently perform coalescent simulations under these dynamics to generate sequences at both host and parasite loci. Genomic footprints of recurrent selective sweeps are often found, whereas trench warfare yield signatures of balancing selection only in parasite sequences, and only in a limited parameter space. Our results suggest that deterministic models of coevolution with infinite population sizes do not predict reliably the observed genomic signatures, and it may be best to study parasite rather than host populations to find genomic signatures of coevolution, such as selective sweeps or balancing selection.     

Genetic Divergence and Signatures of Natural Selection in Marginal Populations of a Keystone,Long-Lived Conifer,Eastern White Pine (Pinus strobus) from Northern Ontario

Marginal populations are expected to provide the frontiers for adaptation, evolution and range shifts of plant species under the anticipated climate change conditions. Marginal populations are predicted to show genetic divergence from central populations due to their isolation, and divergent natural selection and genetic drift operating therein. Marginal populations are also expected to have lower genetic diversity and effective population size (N _e) and higher genetic differentiation than central populations. We tested these hypotheses using eastern white pine (Pinus strobus) as a model for keystone, long-lived widely-distributed plants. All 614 eastern white pine trees, in a complete census of two populations each of marginal old-growth, central old-growth, and central second-growth, were genotyped at 11 microsatellite loci. The central populations had significantly higher allelic and genotypic diversity, latent genetic potential (LGP) and N _e than the marginal populations. However, heterozygosity and fixation index were similar between them. The marginal populations were genetically diverged from the central populations. Model testing suggested predominant north to south gene flow in the study area with curtailed gene flow to northern marginal populations. Signatures of natural selection were detected at three loci in the marginal populations; two showing divergent selection with directional change in allele frequencies, and one balancing selection. Contrary to the general belief, no significant differences were observed in genetic diversity, differentiation, LGP, and N _e between old-growth and second-growth populations. Our study provides information on the dynamics of migration, genetic drift and selection in central versus marginal populations of a keystone long-lived plant species and has broad evolutionary, conservation and adaptation significance.