Trends and Weekly and Seasonal Cycles in the Rate of Errors in the Clinical Management of Hospitalized Patients

Studies on the rate of adverse events in hospitalized patients seldom examine temporal patterns. This study presents evidence of both weekly and annual cycles. The study is based on a large and diverse data set, with nearly 5 yrs of data from a voluntary staff-incident reporting system of a large public health care provider in rural southeastern Australia. The data of 63 health care facilities were included, ranging from large non-metropolitan hospitals to small community and aged health care facilities. Poisson regression incorporating an observation-driven autoregressive effect using the GLARMA framework was used to explain daily error counts with respect to long-term trend and weekly and annual effects, with procedural volume as an offset. The annual pattern was modeled using a first-order sinusoidal effect. The rate of errors reported demonstrated an increasing annual trend of 13.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] 10.6% to 16.3%); however, this trend was only significant for errors of minor or no harm to the patient. A strong “weekend effect” was observed. The incident rate ratio for the weekend versus weekdays was 2.74 (95% CI 2.55 to 2.93). The weekly pattern was consistent for incidents of all levels of severity, but it was more pronounced for less severe incidents. There was an annual cycle in the rate of incidents, the number of incidents peaking in October, on the 282nd day of the year (spring in Australia), with an incident rate ratio 1.09 (95% CI 1.05 to 1.14) compared to the annual mean. There was no so-called “killing season” or “July effect,” as the peak in incident rate was not related to the commencement of work by new medical school graduates. The major finding of this study is the rate of adverse events is greater on weekends and during spring. The annual pattern appears to be unrelated to the commencement of new graduates and potentially results from seasonal variation in the case mix of patients or the health of the medical workforce that alters health care performance. These mechanisms will need to be elucidated with further research. (Author correspondence: david.buckley@gsahs.health.nsw.gov.au)     

Health-related predictors of cancer registry-notified cancer of unknown primary site (CUP)

BackgroundThe relationship between comorbid disease and health service use and risk of cancer of unknown primary site (CUP) is uncertain.MethodsA prospective cohort of 266,724 people aged 45 years and over in New South Wales, Australia. Baseline questionnaire data were linked to cancer registration, health service records 4–27 months prior to diagnosis, and mortality data. We compared individuals with incident registry-notified CUP (n = 327; 90% C80) to two sets of randomly selected controls (3:1): (i) incident metastatic cancer of known primary site (n = 977) and (ii) general cohort population (n = 981). We used conditional logistic regression to estimate adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).ResultsIn fully adjusted models incorporating sociodemographic and lifestyle factors, people with cancer registry-notified CUP were more likely to have fair compared with excellent self-rated overall health (OR 1.78, 95% CI 1.01–3.14) and less likely to self-report anxiety (OR 0.48, 95% CI 0.24−0.97) than those registered with metastatic cancer of known primary. Compared to general cohort population controls, people registered with CUP were more likely to have poor rather than excellent self-rated overall health (OR 6.22, 95% CI 1.35–28.6), less likely to self-report anxiety (OR 0.28, 95% CI 0.12−0.63), and more likely to have a history of diabetes (OR 1.89, 95% CI 1.15–3.10) or cancer (OR 1.62, 95% CI 1.03–2.57). Neither tertiary nor community-based health service use independently predicted CUP risk.ConclusionLow self-rated health may be a flag for undiagnosed cancer, and an investigation of its clinical utility in primary care appears warranted.     

A Comparison of Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis Treatment Commencement Times in MDRTBPlus Line Probe Assay and Xpert? MTB/RIF-Based Algorithms in a Routine Operational Setting in Cape Town

Background

Xpert MTB/RIF was introduced as a screening test for all presumptive tuberculosis cases in primary health services in Cape Town, South Africa.

Study Aim

To compare multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) treatment commencement times in MDRTBPlus Line Probe Assay and Xpert MTB/RIF-based algorithms in a routine operational setting.

Methods

The study was undertaken in 10 of 29 high tuberculosis burden primary health facilities, selected through stratified random sampling. An observational study was undertaken as facilities transitioned to the Xpert MTB/RIF-based algorithm. MDR-TB diagnostic data were collected from electronic laboratory records and treatment data from clinical records and registers. Kaplan Meier time-to-event analysis was used to compare treatment commencement time, laboratory turnaround time and action delay between algorithms. A facility-level paired analysis was done: the median time-to-event was estimated per facility in each algorithm and mean differences between algorithms compared using a paired t-test. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess the effect of patient-level variables on treatment commencement time. The difference between algorithms was compared using the hazard ratio.

Results

The median treatment commencement time in the Xpert MTB/RIF-based algorithm was 17 days (95% CI 13 to 22 days), with a median laboratory turnaround time (to result available in the laboratory) of <1 day (95% CI<1 to 1 day). There was a decrease of 25 days (95% CI 17 to 32 days, p<0.001) in median MDR-TB treatment commencement time in the Xpert MTB/RIF-based algorithm. We found no significant effect on treatment commencement times for the patient-level variables assessed.

Conclusion

MDR-TB treatment commencement time was significantly reduced in the Xpert MTB/RIF-based algorithm. Changes in the health system may have contributed. However, an unacceptable level of delay remains. Health system and patient factors contributing to delay need to be evaluated and addressed to optimise test benefits.     

Bariatric Surgery in the United Kingdom: A Cohort Study of Weight Loss and Clinical Outcomes in Routine Clinical Care

Background

Bariatric surgery is becoming a more widespread treatment for obesity. Comprehensive evidence of the long-term effects of contemporary surgery on a broad range of clinical outcomes in large populations treated in routine clinical practice is lacking. The objective of this study was to measure the association between bariatric surgery, weight, body mass index, and obesity-related co-morbidities.

Methods and Findings

This was an observational retrospective cohort study using data from the United Kingdom Clinical Practice Research Datalink. All 3,882 patients registered in the database and with bariatric surgery on or before 31 December 2014 were included and matched by propensity score to 3,882 obese patients without surgery. The main outcome measures were change in weight and body mass index over 4 y; incident diagnoses of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), hypertension, angina, myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, fractures, obstructive sleep apnoea, and cancer; mortality; and resolution of hypertension and T2DM. Weight measures were available for 3,847 patients between 1 and 4 mo, 2,884 patients between 5 and 12 mo, and 2,258 patients between 13 and 48 mo post-procedure. Bariatric surgery patients exhibited rapid weight loss for the first four postoperative months, at a rate of 4.98 kg/mo (95% CI 4.88–5.08). Slower weight loss was sustained to the end of 4 y. Gastric bypass (6.56 kg/mo) and sleeve gastrectomy (6.29 kg/mo) were associated with greater initial weight reduction than gastric banding (2.77 kg/mo). Protective hazard ratios (HRs) were detected for bariatric surgery for incident T2DM, 0.68 (95% CI 0.55–0.83); hypertension, 0.35 (95% CI 0.27–0.45); angina, 0.59 (95% CI 0.40–0.87);MI, 0.28 (95% CI 0.10–0.74); and obstructive sleep apnoea, 0.55 (95% CI 0.40–0.87). Strong associations were found between bariatric surgery and the resolution of T2DM, with a HR of 9.29 (95% CI 6.84–12.62), and between bariatric surgery and the resolution of hypertension, with a HR of 5.64 (95% CI 2.65–11.99). No association was detected between bariatric surgery and fractures, cancer, or stroke. Effect estimates for mortality found no protective association with bariatric surgery overall, with a HR of 0.97 (95% CI 0.66–1.43). The data used were recorded for the management of patients in primary care and may be subject to inaccuracy, which would tend to lead to underestimates of true relative effect sizes.

Conclusions

Bariatric surgery as delivered in the UK healthcare system is associated with dramatic weight loss, sustained at least 4 y after surgery. This weight loss is accompanied by substantial improvements in pre-existing T2DM and hypertension, as well as a reduced risk of incident T2DM, hypertension, angina, MI, and obstructive sleep apnoea. Widening the availability of bariatric surgery could lead to substantial health benefits for many people who are morbidly obese.     

Alcohol consumption patterns of shiftworkers compared with dayworkers

The detrimental effects of excessive alcohol consumption are well documented. There is some evidence that shiftworkers consume more alcohol than dayworkers as a sleep aid to compensate for sleep difficulties associated with work schedules. This study investigated drinking patterns between shiftworkers and dayworkers using the 2006 and 2007 waves from the Household Income and Labour Dynamics Survey. A subset of workers who were not in full-time study and had a single job were selected; participants who did not drink alcohol (n = 2090) were excluded. Using the 2001 Australian Government alcohol guidelines, alcohol consumption for risk of short-term harm (7+ standard drinks for men, 5+ for women) was investigated. The number of workers who drank alcohol "nearly every day" or "every day" was also examined. Some 13% of shiftworkers and 10% of those on standard schedules reported consuming alcohol at levels risky for short-term harm. Having a child less than 17 yrs (odds ratio [OR]?=?.39, 95% confidence interval [CI]?=?.22-.69), higher job demands (OR =?.71, 95% CI =?.58-.86), being female (OR =?.45, 95% CI=. 26-.79), and being older (OR =?.89, 95% CI =?.87-.92) significantly reduced, whereas being a shiftworker (OR = 2.10, 95% CI = 1.08-4.12) significantly increased, the odds of drinking alcohol in short-term risky levels. Nearly 10% of shiftworkers and 8% of those on standard schedules reported consuming alcohol in short-term risky levels at least weekly. Having a child less than 17 yrs (OR =?.40, 95% CI =?.22-.74), higher job demands (OR =?.69, 95% CI =?.56-.86), being female (OR =?.28, 95% CI =?.15-.53), and being older (OR =?.92, 95% CI =?.89-.94) were associated with a significant reduction in the odds of consuming alcohol at risky levels at least weekly. Being a shiftworker was not associated with a significant increase in the odds of consuming alcohol at such risky levels at least weekly, but a trend was evident (OR = 1.47, 95% CI =?.73-3.00). Some 13.5% of shiftworkers and 21% of those on standard schedules reported consuming alcohol in any amount "near daily" or "daily." Working more hours than preferred (OR = 1.80, 95% CI = 1.12-2.89) and being older (OR = 1.10, 95% CI = 1.07-1.13) were associated with a significant increase, and being female (OR =?.18, 95% CI =?.10-.33), and being a shiftworker (OR =?.20, 95% CI =?.09-.45) were associated with a significant decrease in the odds of consuming alcohol "daily" or "near daily." Overall, the results suggest that shiftworkers may be more likely to consume alcohol at levels considered to be risky for health in the short term. In contrast, they appear less likely to drink alcohol daily. This pattern is suggestive of "binge drinking" behavior.     

The Effect of Intermittent Antenatal Iron Supplementation on Maternal and Infant Outcomes in Rural Viet Nam: A Cluster Randomised Trial

Background

Anemia affects over 500 million women, and in pregnancy is associated with impaired maternal and infant outcomes. Intermittent antenatal iron supplementation is an attractive alternative to daily dosing; however, the impact of this strategy on infant outcomes remains unclear. We compared the effect of intermittent antenatal iron supplementation with daily iron supplementation on maternal and infant outcomes in rural Viet Nam.

Methods and Findings

This cluster randomised trial was conducted in Ha Nam province, Viet Nam. 1,258 pregnant women (<16 wk gestation) in 104 communes were assigned to daily iron–folic acid (IFA), twice weekly IFA, or twice weekly multiple micronutrient (MMN) supplementation. Primary outcome was birth weight. Mean birth weight was 3,148 g (standard deviation 416). There was no difference in the birth weights of infants of women receiving twice weekly IFA compared to daily IFA (mean difference [MD] 28 g; 95% CI −22 to 78), or twice weekly MMN compared to daily IFA (MD −36.8 g; 95% CI −82 to 8.2). At 32 wk gestation, maternal ferritin was lower in women receiving twice weekly IFA compared to daily IFA (geometric mean ratio 0.73; 95% CI 0.67 to 0.80), and in women receiving twice weekly MMN compared to daily IFA (geometric mean ratio 0.62; 95% CI 0.57 to 0.68), but there was no difference in hemoglobin levels. Infants of mothers who received twice weekly IFA had higher cognitive scores at 6 mo of age compared to those who received daily IFA (MD 1.89; 95% CI 0.23 to 3.56).

Conclusions

Twice weekly antenatal IFA or MMN did not produce a clinically important difference in birth weight, when compared to daily IFA supplementation. The significant improvement in infant cognitive outcomes at 6 mo of age following twice weekly antenatal IFA requires further exploration, and provides additional support for the use of intermittent, rather than daily, antenatal IFA in populations with low rates of iron deficiency.

Trial registration

Australia New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry 12610000944033 Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Hospital Mental Health Admissions in Women after Unsuccessful Infertility Treatment and In Vitro Fertilization: An Australian Population-Based Cohort Study

Objective

To examine the association between in vitro fertilization (IVF) and later admission to hospital with a mental health diagnosis in women who remained childless after infertility treatment.

Methods

This was a population-based cohort study using linked administrative hospital and registry data. The study population included all women commencing hospital treatment for infertility in Western Australia between the years 1982 and 2002 aged 20–44 years at treatment commencement who did not have a recorded birth by the end of follow-up (15 August 2010) and did not have a hospital mental health admission prior to the first infertility admission (n=6,567). Of these, 2,623 women had IVF and 3,944 did not. We used multivariate Cox regression modeling of mental health admissions and compared women undergoing IVF treatment with women having infertility treatment but not IVF.

Results

Over an average of 17 years of follow-up, 411 women in the cohort were admitted to hospital with a mental health diagnosis; 93 who had IVF and 318 who did not. The unadjusted hazard ratio (HR) for a hospital mental health admission comparing women who had IVF with those receiving other infertility treatment was 0.50 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.40–0.63). After adjustment for age, calendar year and socio-economic status the HR was 0.56 (95% CI 0.44–0.71).

Conclusions

IVF treatment is associated with a reduced risk of hospital mental health admissions in women after unsuccessful infertility treatment. This may be explained by the healthy cohort effect.     

Reductions in Cardiovascular,Cerebrovascular, and Respiratory Mortality following the National Irish Smoking Ban: Interrupted Time-Series Analysis

Background

Previous studies have shown decreases in cardiovascular mortality following the implementation of comprehensive smoking bans. It is not known whether cerebrovascular or respiratory mortality decreases post-ban. On March 29, 2004, the Republic of Ireland became the first country in the world to implement a national workplace smoking ban. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of this policy on all-cause and cause-specific, non-trauma mortality.

Methods

A time-series epidemiologic assessment was conducted, utilizing Poisson regression to examine weekly age and gender-standardized rates for 215,878 non-trauma deaths in the Irish population, ages ≥35 years. The study period was from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2007, with a post-ban follow-up of 3.75 years. All models were adjusted for time trend, season, influenza, and smoking prevalence.

Results

Following ban implementation, an immediate 13% decrease in all-cause mortality (RR: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.76–0.99), a 26% reduction in ischemic heart disease (IHD) (RR: 0.74; 95% CI: 0.63–0.88), a 32% reduction in stroke (RR: 0.68; 95% CI: 0.54–0.85), and a 38% reduction in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (RR: 0.62; 95% CI: 0.46–0.83) mortality was observed. Post-ban reductions in IHD, stroke, and COPD mortalities were seen in ages ≥65 years, but not in ages 35–64 years. COPD mortality reductions were found only in females (RR: 0.47; 95% CI: 0.32–0.70). Post-ban annual trend reductions were not detected for any smoking-related causes of death. Unadjusted estimates indicate that 3,726 (95% CI: 2,305–4,629) smoking-related deaths were likely prevented post-ban. Mortality decreases were primarily due to reductions in passive smoking.

Conclusions

The national Irish smoking ban was associated with immediate reductions in early mortality. Importantly, post-ban risk differences did not change with a longer follow-up period. This study corroborates previous evidence for cardiovascular causes, and is the first to demonstrate reductions in cerebrovascular and respiratory causes.     

Elimination of Iron Deficiency Anemia and Soil Transmitted Helminth Infection: Evidence from a Fifty-four Month Iron-Folic Acid and De-worming Program

Background

Intermittent iron-folic acid supplementation and regular de-worming are effective initiatives to reduce anemia, iron deficiency, iron deficiency anemia, and soil transmitted helminth infections in women of reproductive age. However, few studies have assessed the long-term effectiveness of population-based interventions delivered in resource-constrained settings.

Methodology/Principal Findings

The objectives were to evaluate the impact of weekly iron-folic acid supplementation and de-worming on mean hemoglobin and the prevalence of anaemia, iron deficiency, and soil transmitted helminth infection in a rural population of women in northern Vietnam and to identify predictive factors for hematological outcomes. A prospective cohort design was used to evaluate a population-based supplementation and deworming program over 54 months. The 389 participants were enrolled just prior to commencement of the intervention. After 54 months 76% (95% CI [68%, 84%]) were taking the iron-folic acid supplement and 95% (95% CI [93%, 98%]) had taken the most recently distributed deworming treatment. Mean hemoglobin rose from 122 g/L (95% CI [120, 124]) to 131 g/L (95% CI [128, 134]) and anemia prevalence fell from 38% (95% CI [31%, 45%]) to 18% (95% CI [12%, 23%]); however, results differed significantly between ethnic groups. Iron deficiency fell from 23% (95% CI [17%, 29%]) to 8% (95% CI [4%, 12%]), while the prevalence of iron deficiency anemia was reduced to 4% (95% CI [1%, 7%]). The prevalence of hookworm infection was reduced from 76% (95% CI [68%, 83%]) to 11% (95% CI [5%, 18%]). The level of moderate or heavy infestation of any soil-transmitted helminth was reduced to less than 1%.

Conclusions/Significance

Population-based interventions can efficiently and effectively reduce anemia and practically eliminate iron deficiency anemia and moderate to heavy soil transmitted helminth infections, maintaining them below the level of public health concern.     

Estimates of Excess Medically Attended Acute Respiratory Infections in Periods of Seasonal and Pandemic Influenza in Germany from 2001/02 to 2010/11

Background

The number of patients seeking health care is a central indicator that may serve several different purposes: (1) as a proxy for the impact on the burden of the primary care system; (2) as a starting point to estimate the number of persons ill with influenza; (3) as the denominator data for the calculation of case fatality rate and the proportion hospitalized (severity indicators); (4) for economic calculations. In addition, reliable estimates of burden of disease and on the health care system are essential to communicate the impact of influenza to health care professionals, public health professionals and to the public.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Using German syndromic surveillance data, we have developed a novel approach to describe the seasonal variation of medically attended acute respiratory infections (MAARI) and estimate the excess MAARI attributable to influenza. The weekly excess inside a period of influenza circulation is estimated as the difference between the actual MAARI and a MAARI-baseline, which is established using a cyclic regression model for counts. As a result, we estimated the highest ARI burden within the last 10 years for the influenza season 2004/05 with an excess of 7.5 million outpatient visits (CI95% 6.8–8.0). In contrast, the pandemic wave 2009 accounted for one third of this burden with an excess of 2.4 million (CI95% 1.9–2.8). Estimates can be produced for different age groups, different geographic regions in Germany and also in real time during the influenza waves.     

Effect of Paying for Performance on Utilisation,Quality, and User Costs of Health Services in Tanzania: A Controlled Before and After Study

Background

Despite widespread implementation across Africa, there is limited evidence of the effect of payment for performance (P4P) schemes in low income countries on the coverage of quality services and affordability, consistent with universal health coverage objectives. We examined the effect of a government P4P scheme on utilisation, quality, and user costs of health services in Tanzania.

Methods

We evaluated the effects of a P4P scheme on utilisation of all maternal and child immunization services targeted by the scheme, and non-targeted general outpatient service use. We also evaluated effects on patient satisfaction with care and clinical content of antenatal care, and user costs. The evaluation was done in 150 facilities across all 7 intervention districts and 4 comparison districts with two rounds of data collection over 13-months in January 2012 and February 2013. We sampled 3000 households of women who had delivered in the 12 months prior to interview; 1500 patients attending health facilities for targeted and non-targeted services at each round of data collection. Difference-in-difference regression analysis was employed.

Findings

We estimated a significant positive effect on two out of eight targeted indicators. There was an 8.2% (95% CI: 3.6% to 12.8%) increase in coverage of institutional deliveries among women in the intervention area, and a 10.3% (95% CI: 4.4% to 16.1%) increase in the provision of anti-malarials during pregnancy. Use of non-targeted services reduced at dispensaries by 57.5 visits per month among children under five (95% CI: -110.2 to -4.9) and by 90.8 visits per month for those aged over five (95% CI: -156.5 to -25.2). There was no evidence of an effect of P4P on patient experience of care for targeted services. There was a 0.05 (95% CI: 0.01 to 0.10) increase in the patient satisfaction score for non-targeted services. P4P was associated with a 5.0% reduction in those paying out of pocket for deliveries (95% CI: -9.3% to -0.7%) but there was no evidence of an effect on the average amount paid.

Conclusion

This study adds to the very limited evidence on the effects of P4P at scale and highlights the potential risks of such schemes in relation to non-targeted service use. Further consideration of the design of P4P schemes is required to enhance progress towards universal health coverage, and close monitoring of effects on non-targeted services and user costs should be encouraged.     

Difficult Behaviors in the Emergency Department: A Cohort Study of Housed,Homeless and Alcohol Dependent Individuals

Background

This study contrasted annual rates of difficult behaviours in emergency departments among cohorts of individuals who were homeless and low-income housed and examined predictors of these events.

Methods

Interviews in 1999 with men who were chronically homeless with drinking problems (CHDP) (n = 50), men from the general homeless population (GH) (n = 61), and men residing in low-income housing (LIH) (n = 58) were linked to catchment area emergency department records (n = 2817) from 1994 to 1999. Interview and hospital data were linked to measures of difficult behaviours.

Results

Among the CHDP group, annual rates of visits with difficult behaviours were 5.46; this was 13.4 (95% CI 10.3–16.5) and 14.3 (95% CI 11.2–17.3) times higher than the GH and LIH groups. Difficult behaviour incidents included physical violence, verbal abuse, uncooperativeness, drug seeking, difficult histories and security involvement. Difficult behaviours made up 57.54% (95% CI 55.43–59.65%), 24% (95% CI 19–29%), and 20% (95% CI 16–24%) of CHDP, GH and LIH visits. Among GH and LIH groups, 87% to 95% were never involved in verbal abuse or violence. Intoxication increased all difficult behaviours while decreasing drug seeking and leaving without being seen. Verbal abuse and violence were less likely among those housed, with odds ratios of 0.24 (0.08, 0.72) and 0.32 (0.15, 0.69), respectively.

Conclusions

Violence and difficult behaviours are much higher among chronically homeless men with drinking problems than general homeless and low-income housed populations. They are concentrated among subgroups of individuals. Intoxication is the strongest predictor of difficult behaviour incidents.     

The relationship between asthma and depression in primary care patients: a historical cohort and nested case control study

Background and Objectives

Asthma and depression are common health problems in primary care. Evidence of a relationship between asthma and depression is conflicting. Objectives: to determine 1. The incidence rate and incidence rate ratio of depression in primary care patients with asthma compared to those without asthma, and 2. The standardized mortality ratio of depressed compared to non-depressed patients with asthma.

Methods

A historical cohort and nested case control study using data derived from the United Kingdom General Practice Research Database. Participants: 11,275 incident cases of asthma recorded between 1/1/95 and 31/12/96 age, sex and practice matched with non-cases from the database (ratio 1∶1) and followed up through the database for 10 years. 1,660 cases were matched by date of asthma diagnosis with 1,660 controls. Main outcome measures: number of cases diagnosed with depression, the number of deaths over the study period.

Results

The rate of depression in patients with asthma was 22.4/1,000 person years and without asthma 13.8 /1,000 person years. The incident rate ratio (adjusted for age, sex, practice, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, cerebrovascular disease, smoking) was 1.59 (95% CI 1.48–1.71). The increased rate of depression was not associated with asthma severity or oral corticosteroid use. It was associated with the number of consultations (odds ratio per visit 1.09; 95% CI 1.07–1.11). The age and sex adjusted standardized mortality ratio for depressed patients with asthma was 1.87 (95% CI: 1.54–2.27).

Conclusions

Asthma is associated with depression. This was not related to asthma severity or oral corticosteroid use but was related to service use. This suggests that a diagnosis of depression is related to health seeking behavior in patients with asthma. There is an increased mortality rate in depressed patients with asthma. The cause of this needs further exploration. Consideration should be given to case-finding for depression in this population.     

Fast Food Consumption and Gestational Diabetes Incidence in the SUN Project

Background

Gestational diabetes prevalence is increasing, mostly because obesity among women of reproductive age is continuously escalating. We aimed to investigate the incidence of gestational diabetes according to the consumption of fast food in a cohort of university graduates.

Methods

The prospective dynamic “Seguimiento Universidad de Navarra” (SUN) cohort included data of 3,048 women initially free of diabetes or previous gestational diabetes who reported at least one pregnancy between December 1999 and March 2011. Fast food consumption was assessed through a validated 136-item semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire. Fast food was defined as the consumption of hamburgers, sausages, and pizza. Three categories of fast food were established: low (0–3 servings/month), intermediate (>3 servings/month and ≤2 servings/week) and high (>2 servings/week). Non-conditional logistic regression models were used to adjust for potential confounders.

Results

We identified 159 incident cases of gestational diabetes during follow-up. After adjusting for age, baseline body mass index, total energy intake, smoking, physical activity, family history of diabetes, cardiovascular disease/hypertension at baseline, parity, adherence to Mediterranean dietary pattern, alcohol intake, fiber intake, and sugar-sweetened soft drinks consumption, fast food consumption was significantly associated with a higher risk of incident gestational diabetes, with multivariate adjusted OR of 1.31 (95% conficence interval [CI]:0.81–2.13) and 1.86 (95% CI: 1.13–3.06) for the intermediate and high categories, respectively, versus the lowest category of baseline fast food consumption (p for linear trend: 0.007).

Conclusion

Our results suggest that pre-pregnancy higher consumption of fast food is an independent risk factor for gestational diabetes.     

Factors Associated to Prevalence and Incidence of Carbapenem-Resistant Enterobacteriaceae Fecal Carriage: A Cohort Study in a Mexican Tertiary Care Hospital

Background

Carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) infections have emerged as a serious threat to health worldwide. They are associated with increased morbidity and mortality and are capable of silently colonizing the gastrointestinal tract. Because of this, there is great interest to characterize the epidemiology of CRE carriage and acquisition in healthcare facilities. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence and factors associated with CRE fecal carriage (CRE-fc), and risk factors for incident cases.

Methods/Results

A cohort study was conducted at a tertiary care hospital from January 1^st to April 30^th, 2014 during a CRE outbreak. Weekly rectal swabs were performed in patients considered at risk until discharge. CRE-fc prevalence was 10.9% (CI 95% 7.7–14.7) among 330 patients. Treatment with carbapenems (OR 2.54, CI 95% 1.15–5.62); transfer from an institution (OR 2.16, CI 95% 1.02–4.59); multi-drug resistant infection within the previous six months (OR 2.81, CI 95% 1.47–5.36); intensive care unit admission (OR 0.42, CI 95% 0.20–0.88); hematologic malignancy (OR 4.02, CI 95% 1.88–8.06); invasive procedures (OR 2.18, CI 95% 1.10–4.32); and sharing a room with a known CRE carrier (OR 3.0, CI 95% 1.43–6.31) were independently associated factors for CRE-fc. Risk factors associated with CRE-fc incidence were determined for 87 patients initially negative and with subsequent screening; the incidence rate was 2.5 cases, per 1000 person-years (CI 95% 1.5–3.9). Independently associated risk factors were carbapenem treatment (HR 2.68, CI 95% 1.03–6.98), hematologic malignancy (HR 5.74, 95% CI 2.46–13.4) and a mean daily colonization pressure ≥10% (HR 5.03, IC 95% 1.77–14.28). OXA-48-like (OXA-232) and CTX-M-15 were the predominantly identified mechanisms of resistance.

Conclusions

We found an elevated incidence and prevalence of CRE-fc in our hospital. Hematologic patients need to be considered a population at risk, and antibiotic stewardship along with infection control programs need to be improved to avoid nosocomial spread.     

Risk factors for hospitalization among adults with asthma: the influence of sociodemographic factors and asthma severity

Background

The morbidity and mortality from asthma have markedly increased since the late 1970s. The hospitalization rate, an important marker of asthma severity, remains substantial.

Methods

In adults with health care access, we prospectively studied 242 with asthma, aged 18–50 years, recruited from a random sample of allergy and pulmonary physician practices in Northern California to identify risk factors for subsequent hospitalization.

Results

Thirty-nine subjects (16%) reported hospitalization for asthma during the 18-month follow-up period. On controlling for asthma severity in multiple logistic regression analysis, non-white race (odds ratio [OR], 3.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1–8.8) and lower income (OR, 1.1 per $10,000 decrement; 95% CI, 0.9–1.3) were associated with a higher risk of asthma hospitalization. The severity-of-asthma score (OR, 3.4 per 5 points; 95%, CI 1.7–6.8) and recent asthma hospitalization (OR, 8.3; 95%, CI, 2.1–33.4) were also related to higher risk, after adjusting for demographic characteristics. Reliance on emergency department services for urgent asthma care was also associated with a greater likelihood of hospitalization (OR, 3.2; 95% CI, 1.0–9.8). In multivariate analysis not controlling for asthma severity, low income was even more strongly related to hospitalization (OR, 1.2 per $10,000 decrement; 95% CI, 1.02–1.4).

Conclusion

In adult asthmatics with access to health care, non-white race, low income, and greater asthma severity were associated with a higher risk of hospitalization. Targeted interventions applied to high-risk asthma patients may reduce asthma morbidity and mortality.     

Midlife obesity and long-term risk of nursing home admission

Objective: Obesity is a growing problem among middle‐aged individuals. We investigated whether obesity in middle‐aged individuals influences the need for future nursing home care and whether the risk of nursing home admission associated with obesity is greater in whites than in blacks. Research Methods and Procedures: The study population (N = 8804) consisted of long‐term members of the Kaiser Permanente Medical Care Plan ages 75 to 85 years in 1995 who had completed a standardized, multiphasic health checkup while in their 50s. The multiphasic health checkup examinations were performed as part of routine medical care between the years 1964 and 1973 and included standardized measurements of BMI. We used health plan records to assess incident nursing home admissions from 1995 to 2002. The risk of nursing home admission associated with standard categories of midlife BMI was estimated using Cox proportional hazard analysis. Results: During an average follow‐up of 5.1 years, the nursing home admission rate was 6.8 per 100 person‐years of observation. After adjustment for comorbidities, midlife obesity predicted incident nursing home admission ～25 years later [hazard ratio (HR), 1.30; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.15 to 1.46; p < 0.001]. Overweight BMI at midlife was not associated with future nursing home admission (HR, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.97 to 1.14; p = 0.23). The risk of nursing home admission associated with midlife obesity was higher in whites (HR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.17 to 1.54; p < 0.001) than in blacks (HR 1.15; 95% CI, 0.87 to 1.52; p = 0.32), but the difference between races was not significant (p for interaction = 0.65). Discussion: Obesity among middle‐aged individuals is associated with an increased risk of nursing home admission in late life and may be an important target for reducing the future societal burden of nursing home care.     

Sociodemographic Trends in the Incidence of Pancreatic and Biliary Tract Cancer in UK Primary Care

Background

The UK incidence of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is approximately 9/100,000 population compared with 1–2/100,000 for biliary tract cancer (BTC). This study explores the incidence of these cancers over time and the influence of socio-demographic and geographic factors in a UK primary care cohort.

Methods

This study uses data from a large UK primary care database, The Health Improvement Network (THIN). All adult patients contributing data to THIN between January 2000 and December 2010 were included. Annual incidence rates were calculated, adjusted for age, gender, time period, deprivation score (Townsend quintile) and strategic health authority.

Results

From 2000–2010, the annual incidence of PDAC increased by an average of 3% per year (95% CI 1.00–4.00%) and BTC by 4% (95% CI 2.00–6.00%). Incidence of both cancers increased steeply with age and was higher in men. BTC was associated with increasing deprivation (most deprived versus least deprived quintile (OR: 1.45 [95% CI: 1.17, 1.79.]).

Conclusions

The overall incidence of both cancers is low but increasing. Variations in incidence may reflect changes in coding practice or increased exposure to associated risk factors.