Effects of climate change on an emperor penguin population: analysis of coupled demographic and climate models

Sea ice conditions in the Antarctic affect the life cycle of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri). We present a population projection for the emperor penguin population of Terre Adélie, Antarctica, by linking demographic models (stage‐structured, seasonal, nonlinear, two‐sex matrix population models) to sea ice forecasts from an ensemble of IPCC climate models. Based on maximum likelihood capture‐mark‐recapture analysis, we find that seasonal sea ice concentration anomalies (SIC_a) affect adult survival and breeding success. Demographic models show that both deterministic and stochastic population growth rates are maximized at intermediate values of annual SIC_a, because neither the complete absence of sea ice, nor heavy and persistent sea ice, would provide satisfactory conditions for the emperor penguin. We show that under some conditions the stochastic growth rate is positively affected by the variance in SIC_a. We identify an ensemble of five general circulation climate models whose output closely matches the historical record of sea ice concentration in Terre Adélie. The output of this ensemble is used to produce stochastic forecasts of SIC_a, which in turn drive the population model. Uncertainty is included by incorporating multiple climate models and by a parametric bootstrap procedure that includes parameter uncertainty due to both model selection and estimation error. The median of these simulations predicts a decline of the Terre Adélie emperor penguin population of 81% by the year 2100. We find a 43% chance of an even greater decline, of 90% or more. The uncertainty in population projections reflects large differences among climate models in their forecasts of future sea ice conditions. One such model predicts population increases over much of the century, but overall, the ensemble of models predicts that population declines are far more likely than population increases. We conclude that climate change is a significant risk for the emperor penguin. Our analytical approach, in which demographic models are linked to IPCC climate models, is powerful and generally applicable to other species and systems.     

The challenges of detecting subtle population structure and its importance for the conservation of emperor penguins

Understanding the boundaries of breeding populations is of great importance for conservation efforts and estimates of extinction risk for threatened species. However, determining these boundaries can be difficult when population structure is subtle. Emperor penguins are highly reliant on sea ice, and some populations may be in jeopardy as climate change alters sea‐ice extent and quality. An understanding of emperor penguin population structure is therefore urgently needed. Two previous studies have differed in their conclusions, particularly whether the Ross Sea, a major stronghold for the species, is isolated or not. We assessed emperor penguin population structure using 4,596 genome‐wide single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), characterized in 110 individuals (10–16 per colony) from eight colonies around Antarctica. In contrast to a previous conclusion that emperor penguins are panmictic around the entire continent, we find that emperor penguins comprise at least four metapopulations, and that the Ross Sea is clearly a distinct metapopulation. Using larger sample sizes and a thorough assessment of the limitations of different analytical methods, we have shown that population structure within emperor penguins does exist and argue that its recognition is vital for the effective conservation of the species. We discuss the many difficulties that molecular ecologists and managers face in the detection and interpretation of subtle population structure using large SNP data sets, and argue that subtle structure should be taken into account when determining management strategies for threatened species, until accurate estimates of demographic connectivity among populations can be made.     

Emperor Penguins Breeding on Iceshelves

We describe a new breeding behaviour discovered in emperor penguins; utilizing satellite and aerial-survey observations four emperor penguin breeding colonies have been recorded as existing on ice-shelves. Emperors have previously been considered as a sea-ice obligate species, with 44 of the 46 colonies located on sea-ice (the other two small colonies are on land). Of the colonies found on ice-shelves, two are newly discovered, and these have been recorded on shelves every season that they have been observed, the other two have been recorded both on ice-shelves and sea-ice in different breeding seasons. We conduct two analyses; the first using synthetic aperture radar data to assess why the largest of the four colonies, for which we have most data, locates sometimes on the shelf and sometimes on the sea-ice, and find that in years where the sea-ice forms late, the colony relocates onto the ice-shelf. The second analysis uses a number of environmental variables to test the habitat marginality of all emperor penguin breeding sites. We find that three of the four colonies reported in this study are in the most northerly, warmest conditions where sea-ice is often sub-optimal. The emperor penguin’s reliance on sea-ice as a breeding platform coupled with recent concerns over changed sea-ice patterns consequent on regional warming, has led to their designation as “near threatened” in the IUCN red list. Current climate models predict that future loss of sea-ice around the Antarctic coastline will negatively impact emperor numbers; recent estimates suggest a halving of the population by 2052. The discovery of this new breeding behaviour at marginal sites could mitigate some of the consequences of sea-ice loss; potential benefits and whether these are permanent or temporary need to be considered and understood before further attempts are made to predict the population trajectory of this iconic species.     

An emperor penguin population estimate: the first global, synoptic survey of a species from space

Our aim was to estimate the population of emperor penguins (Aptenodytes fosteri) using a single synoptic survey. We examined the whole continental coastline of Antarctica using a combination of medium resolution and Very High Resolution (VHR) satellite imagery to identify emperor penguin colony locations. Where colonies were identified, VHR imagery was obtained in the 2009 breeding season. The remotely-sensed images were then analysed using a supervised classification method to separate penguins from snow, shadow and guano. Actual counts of penguins from eleven ground truthing sites were used to convert these classified areas into numbers of penguins using a robust regression algorithm.We found four new colonies and confirmed the location of three previously suspected sites giving a total number of emperor penguin breeding colonies of 46. We estimated the breeding population of emperor penguins at each colony during 2009 and provide a population estimate of ~238,000 breeding pairs (compared with the last previously published count of 135,000-175,000 pairs). Based on published values of the relationship between breeders and non-breeders, this translates to a total population of ~595,000 adult birds.There is a growing consensus in the literature that global and regional emperor penguin populations will be affected by changing climate, a driver thought to be critical to their future survival. However, a complete understanding is severely limited by the lack of detailed knowledge about much of their ecology, and importantly a poor understanding of their total breeding population. To address the second of these issues, our work now provides a comprehensive estimate of the total breeding population that can be used in future population models and will provide a baseline for long-term research.     

A comprehensive demographic assessment of the endangered Fiordland crested penguin Eudyptes pachyrhynchus

ABSTRACT

Many species of Eudyptes penguin have shown substantial population declines and in response, there have been efforts to identify the key demographic parameters. Here, we present the demographic parameters of one of the least well known and the least abundant species of crested penguin, the endangered Fiordland crested penguin Eudyptes pachyrhynchus. A population study incorporating mark–recapture, nest occupancy and breeding success was conducted over 16 years at several sites in the northern half of the range of the species. Survival probabilities were calculated using standard Cormack–Jolly–Seber models and the Burnham Live and Dead model. The annual probability of true survival for banded birds and apparent survival for birds with transponders were both estimated at 89% during their adult years, which is similar to that reported for Eudyptes penguin species inhabiting more southerly latitudes. Annual juvenile survival was assessed for Fiordland crested penguins until their first return at 77%. The mean breeding success (0.61?±?0.02 chicks/pair) was higher than is observed for other crested penguin species, except the southern rockhopper penguin, which may be due to having lower A-egg ejection rates and higher rates of fledging two chicks per pair. Breeding success was related to the niche of predators present.     

Increased survival and breeding performance of double breeders in little penguins Eudyptula minor,New Zealand: evidence for individual bird quality?

The little penguin Eudyptula minor is unique among penguin species in being able to fledge chicks from two clutches in one breeding season. Pairs laying two clutches in a given season make a higher reproductive investment, and may be rewarded by a higher reproductive success as they may raise twice as many chicks as pairs laying one clutch. The higher effort made by pairs laying two clutches could correlate negatively with survival, future reproductive performance or offspring survival, indicating a cost of reproduction. Conversely, a positive relationship between the number of clutches produced in a given breeding season and survival, future reproductive performance or offspring survival would indicate that birds laying two clutches belonged to a category of birds with higher fitness, compared to birds laying only one clutch in the season. In this study we used a long‐term data set taken from an increasing population of little penguins in Otago, SE New Zealand. We modelled the relationship between the number of clutches laid in a breeding season and survival probability, reproductive performance in the next breeding season and first year survival of offspring using capture‐recapture modelling.
Birds laying two clutches produced 1.7 times more fledglings during a breeding season than pairs laying one clutch. We found that birds laying two clutches had a higher probability of breeding in the following breeding season, a higher probability of laying two clutches in the following breeding season and a higher survival probability. There was no overall difference in post‐fledging survival between the young of birds producing one clutch and the young of birds producing two clutches. However, the survival of young of single clutch breeders declined with laying date, whereas the young of double clutch breeders had the same survival rate irrespective of laying date. For a subset of data with birds of known age, we found evidence that the probability of laying two clutches increased with age. However, there were also indications for differences among birds in the tendency to lay two clutches that could not be attributed to age. We tentatively interpret our results as evidence of quality difference among little penguin breeders.     

Life history buffering in Antarctic mammals and birds against changing patterns of climate and environmental variation

The consequences of warming for Antarctic long‐lived organisms depend on their ability to survive changing patterns of climate and environmental variation. Among birds and mammals of different Antarctic regions, including emperor penguins, snow petrels, southern fulmars, Antarctic fur seals and Weddell seals, we found strong support for selection of life history traits that reduce interannual variation in fitness. These species maximize fitness by keeping a low interannual variance in the survival of adults and in their propensity to breed annually, which are the vital rates that influence most the variability in population growth rate (λ). All these species have been able to buffer these rates against the effects of recent climate‐driven habitat changes except for Antarctic fur seals, in the Southwest Atlantic. In this region of the Southern Ocean, the rapid increase in ecosystem fluctuation, associated with increasing climate variability observed since 1990, has limited and rendered less predictable the main fur seal food supply, Antarctic krill. This has increased the fitness costs of breeding for females, causing significant short‐term changes in population structure through mortality and low breeding output. Changes occur now with a frequency higher than the mean female fur seal generation time, and therefore are likely to limit their adaptive response. Fur seals are more likely to rely on phenotypic plasticity to cope with short‐term changes in order to maximize individual fitness. With more frequent extreme climatic events driving more frequent ecosystem fluctuation, the repercussions for life histories in many Antarctic birds and mammals are likely to increase, particularly at regional scales. In species with less flexible life histories that are more constrained by fluctuation in their critical habitats, like sea‐ice, this may cause demographic changes, population compensation and changes in distribution, as already observed in penguin species living in the Antarctic Peninsula and adjacent islands.     

Climate fluctuation effects on breeding of blue penguins (Eudyptula minor)

Abstract

El Niño and La Niña climate perturbations alter sea currents and food availability for seabirds in many areas of the world. This changes their breeding success and mortality. Blue penguin (Eudyptula minor) breeding success is dependent upon whether one or two clutches per season are laid, and the hatching and fledging success of these clutches. This study uses six years of data from five blue penguin breeding colonies, three from Taiaroa Head, Otago Peninsula and two from Oamaru, to examine whether annual variation in breeding success correlates with El Niño/La Niña perturbations. When La Niña conditions prevailed, penguins started breeding later, and there was a lower proportion of double breeders than in El Niño and normal years. The probability of a newly hatched chick surviving to fledging was also dependent on whether large‐scale climatic conditions prevailed, whereas hatching success and overall breeding success (number of fledged chicks per breeding pair) showed no correlation with climate perturbations.     

Population trends and reproductive success at a frequently visited penguin colony on the western Antarctic Peninsula

Petermann Island (65°10′S, 64°10′W), one of the Antarctic Peninsula’s most frequently visited locations, is at the epicenter of a rapid shift in which an Adélie penguin dominated fauna is becoming gentoo penguin dominated. Over the course of five seasons, the breeding productivity of Adélie and gentoo penguins breeding at Petermann Island were monitored to identify drivers of this rapid community change. The impact of tourist visitation on breeding success was also investigated. Consistent with larger trends in this region, the Adélie penguin population decreased by 29% and the gentoo penguin population increased by 27% between the 2003/2004 and 2007/2008 seasons. Reproductive success among Adélie penguins ranged from 1.09 to 1.32 crèched chicks/nest, which was higher than or comparable to other sites and is an unlikely explanation for the precipitous decline of Adélie penguins at Petermann Island. Whereas gentoo penguin reproductive success was lowest in colonies frequently visited by tourists, Adélie penguin colonies frequently visited by tourists had higher reproductive success than those visited only occasionally. These results are placed in the context of other studies on reproductive success and the impact of tourist visitation on breeding colonies of Adélie and gentoo penguins.     

Is the large‐scale decline of the starling related to local changes in demography?

The decline of one farmland bird, the migratory European starling, has been attributed to both agricultural intensification and farmland abandonment and to factors operating both during the winter and during the breeding season. We analysed population data from thirty‐three Swedish nestbox colonies over more than two decades to determine if the national decline was caused by a common factor affecting all colonies or by local changes in the breeding grounds affecting starling colonies. We found that numbers of breeding starling had declined significantly, but at different rates in different colonies. The local population sizes were affected by previous years’ productivity at both national and local scales, suggesting that changes in habitat quality at both scales could affect local population trends. There were no long‐term trends in reproductive output, but fledgling production was lowest at intermediate years. The local population changes were positively related to local changes in reproductive output, but only when including complete nest‐failures. A relationship between population declines and low mean local productivity was the result of the association between population sizes and reproductive success over time, since decline rates of starlings were not related to the average success during the first part of the study, but to the average success during the later part of the study. The relationship between population change and changes in reproductive output was evident, but fledgling production showed negative density‐dependence. In conclusion this study suggests that the decline of the starling population in Sweden has been affected by processes at small spatial scales during the breeding season affecting reproductive success, but does not exclude an additional role for processes at large spatial scales or outside the breeding season.     

The conservation status and population decline of the African penguin deconstructed in space and time

Understanding changes in abundance is crucial for conservation, but population growth rates often vary over space and time. We use 40 years of count data (1979–2019) and Bayesian state‐space models to assess the African penguin Spheniscus demersus population under IUCN Red List Criterion A. We deconstruct the overall decline in time and space to identify where urgent conservation action is needed. The global African penguin population met the threshold for Endangered with a high probability (97%), having declined by almost 65% since 1989. An historical low of ~17,700 pairs bred in 2019. Annual changes were faster in the South African population (?4.2%, highest posterior density interval, HPDI: ?7.8 to ?0.6%) than the Namibian one (?0.3%, HPDI: ?3.3 to +2.6%), and since 1999 were almost ?10% at South African colonies north of Cape Town. Over the 40‐year period, the Eastern Cape colonies went from holding ~25% of the total penguin population to ~40% as numbers decreased more rapidly elsewhere. These changes coincided with an altered abundance and availability of the main prey of African penguins. Our results underline the dynamic nature of population declines in space as well as time and highlight which penguin colonies require urgent conservation attention.     

Long-term trends in the population size and breeding success of emperor penguins at the Taylor Glacier colony, Antarctica

The population size of emperor penguins at the land-based Taylor Glacier colony was monitored over 54 years from 1957 to 2010 by intermittent ground counts from 1957 to 1975 and annual photographic counts from 1988 to 2010 of males attending the colony in winter and chicks in early summer. The breeding population in the early years averaged 3,684 ± 492 pairs compared with 2,927 ± 320 pairs from 1988–2010, a reduction of 20.5 %. The exact timing and magnitude of the change is unknown because there was a 13-year gap between the end of the historical counts and start of the contemporary counts. From 1954 to 2010 no real or inferred warming event that may have been linked to the decrease was evident at Australia’s Mawson station, 95 km from Taylor Glacier colony. From 1988 to 2010, variation in breeding population size and breeding success were not related to variation in the distance between the colony and open water. In this period, the number of pairs breeding fluctuated annually and overall showed signs of a gradual decrease. The Taylor Glacier colony is one of only three emperor penguin colonies where populations have been monitored in winter over the long term. Given the threat of climate warming to the future of this ice-dependent species it is imperative that the annual monitoring programme at Taylor Glacier continues well into the future.     

Review of historical population information of emperor penguins

In 1902, the first breeding colony of emperor penguins was discovered. Over the following decades, the number of known emperor penguin colonies increased steadily and new ones are still being discovered. However, rigorous census work has been carried out at only a few colonies and accurate information on trends in breeding populations is limited to a small number of locations. Thus, the total number of breeding pairs is still unknown as is the size of the global population (breeders, non-breeders, juveniles). The International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) lists the species’ status as ‘least concern’ and states that although the population trend for emperor penguins has not been quantified, the global population appears to be stable. This review summarises the currently available information on the populations of emperor penguins at known colonies in terms of survey methods, count units used and survey frequency. It examines what is known about the state of various colonies and demonstrates that currently available data are inadequate for a trend assessment of the global population.     

Sea ice predicts long‐term trends in Adélie penguin population growth,but not annual fluctuations: Results from a range‐wide multiscale analysis

Understanding the scales at which environmental variability affects populations is critical for projecting population dynamics and species distributions in rapidly changing environments. Here we used a multilevel Bayesian analysis of range‐wide survey data for Adélie penguins to characterize multidecadal and annual effects of sea ice on population growth. We found that mean sea ice concentration at breeding colonies (i.e., “prevailing” environmental conditions) had robust nonlinear effects on multidecadal population trends and explained over 85% of the variance in mean population growth rates among sites. In contrast, despite considerable year‐to‐year fluctuations in abundance at most breeding colonies, annual sea ice fluctuations often explained less than 10% of the temporal variance in population growth rates. Our study provides an understanding of the spatially and temporally dynamic environmental factors that define the range limits of Adélie penguins, further establishing this iconic marine predator as a true sea ice obligate and providing a firm basis for projection under scenarios of future climate change. Yet, given the weak effects of annual sea ice relative to the large unexplained variance in year‐to‐year growth rates, the ability to generate useful short‐term forecasts of Adélie penguin breeding abundance will be extremely limited. Our approach provides a powerful framework for linking short‐ and longer term population processes to environmental conditions that can be applied to any species, facilitating a richer understanding of ecological predictability and sensitivity to global change.     

Evidence of a shift in the cyclicity of Antarctic seabird dynamics linked to climate

Ecosystems and populations are known to be influenced not only by long-term climatic trends, but also by other short-term climatic modes, such as interannual and decadal-scale variabilities. Because interactions between climatic forcing, biotic and abiotic components of ecosystems are subtle and complex, analysis of long-term series of both biological and physical factors is essential to understanding these interactions. Here, we apply a wavelet analysis simultaneously to long-term datasets on the environment and on the populations and breeding success of three Antarctic seabirds (southern fulmar, snow petrel, emperor penguin) breeding in Terre Adélie, to study the effects of climate fluctuations on Antarctic marine ecosystems. We show that over the past 40 years, populations and demographic parameters of the three species fluctuate with a periodicity of 3-5 years that was also detected in sea-ice extent and the Southern Oscillation Index. Although the major periodicity of these interannual fluctuations is not common to different species and environmental variables, their cyclic characteristics reveal a significant change since 1980. Moreover, sliding-correlation analysis highlighted the relationships between environmental variables and the demography of the three species, with important change of correlation occurring between the end of the 1970s and the beginning of the 1980s. These results suggest that a regime shift has probably occurred during this period, significantly affecting the Antarctic ecosystem, but with contrasted effects on the three species.     

Inter‐annual variability and long‐term trends in breeding success in a declining population of migratory swans

Population declines among migratory Arctic‐breeding birds are a growing concern for conservationists. To inform the conservation of these declining populations, we need to understand how demographic rates such as breeding success are influenced by combinations of extrinsic and intrinsic factors. In this study we examined inter‐annual variation and long‐term trends in two aspects of the breeding success of a migratory herbivore, the Bewick's swan Cygnus columbianus bewickii, which is currently undergoing a population decline: 1) the percentage of young within the wintering population and 2) mean brood size. We used an information‐theoretic approach to test how these two measures of productivity were influenced over a 26 yr period by 12 potential explanatory variables, encompassing both environmental (e.g. temperature) and intrinsic (e.g. pair‐bond duration) factors. Swan productivity exhibited sensitivity to both types of explanatory variable. Fewer young were observed on the wintering grounds in years in which the breeding period (May to September) was colder and predator (Arctic fox) abundance was higher. The percentage of young within the wintering population also showed negative density‐dependence. Inter‐annual variance in mean swan brood size was best explained by a model comprised of the negative degree days during the swan breeding period, mean pair‐bond duration of all paired swans (i.e. mean pair duration), and an interaction between these two variables. In particular, mean pair duration had a strong positive effect on mean brood size. However, we found no long‐term directional trend in either measure of breeding success, despite the recent decline in the NW European population. Our results highlight that inter‐annual variability in breeding success is sensitive to the combined effects of both intrinsic and extrinsic factors.     

Ecological drivers of change at South Georgia: the krill surplus,or climate variability

Macaroni penguins Eudyptes chrysolophus are thought to be one of the most important mesopredators in the Southern Ocean having a greater impact on prey availability and abundance than any other seabird species. Their population centre has long been held to be South Georgia where populations were thought to comprise many million animals. Here we report the results of a recent census of the macaroni population at South Georgia undertaken using aerial survey methods. We report dramatic declines in numbers (～1.0 million breeding pairs) compared to numbers observed in the late 1970s (～5.4 million pairs), but show that these reductions have occurred principally at sites where numbers had previously been very large. During the breeding season, the main foraging grounds of birds from these sites overlap with the foraging grounds of Antarctic fur seals Arctocephalus gazella, a major competitor for their principal prey, Antarctic krill Euphausia superba. We suggest that the redistribution of the macaroni penguin population at South Georgia reflects the recent recovery of fur seal populations and thus the ongoing consequences of human intervention at South Georgia, a process which started more than 2 centuries previously. The implied resource competition and the observed population changes may also be exacerbated by recent reductions in Antarctic krill abundance which have been linked with reductions in seasonal sea ice following recent, rapid, regional warming in the Antarctic; however, the recovery of fur seal populations, and the ongoing recovery of krill‐eating whale populations argues that tropho‐dynamic interactions may be sufficient to explain the observed changes.     

Landfast ice: a major driver of reproductive success in a polar seabird

In a fast-changing world, polar ecosystems are threatened by climate variability. Understanding the roles of fine-scale processes, and linear and nonlinear effects of climate factors on the demography of polar species is crucial for anticipating the future state of these fragile ecosystems. While the effects of sea ice on polar marine top predators are increasingly being studied, little is known about the impacts of landfast ice (LFI) on this species community. Based on a unique 39-year time series of satellite imagery and in situ meteorological conditions and on the world''s longest dataset of emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri) breeding parameters, we studied the effects of fine-scale variability of LFI and weather conditions on this species'' reproductive success. We found that longer distances to the LFI edge (i.e. foraging areas) negatively affected the overall breeding success but also the fledging success. Climate window analyses suggested that chick mortality was particularly sensitive to LFI variability between August and November. Snowfall in May also affected hatching success. Given the sensitivity of LFI to storms and changes in wind direction, important future repercussions on the breeding habitat of emperor penguins are to be expected in the context of climate change.     

Detection, differentiation, and abundance estimation of penguin species by high-resolution satellite imagery

Due to its high spatial resolution, broad spatial coverage, and cost-effectiveness, commercial satellite imagery is rapidly becoming a key component of biological monitoring in the Antarctic. While considerable success in surveying emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) has been facilitated by their large size and the visual simplicity of their habitat, there has been considerably less progress in mapping colonies on the Antarctic Peninsula and associated sub-Antarctic islands where smaller penguin species breed on topographically complex terrain composed of mixed substrates. Here, we demonstrate that Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae), chinstrap penguin (P. antarcticus), gentoo penguin (P. papua), and macaroni penguin (Eudyptes chrysolophus) colonies can be detected by high-resolution (2-m multispectral, 40–50-cm panchromatic) satellite imagery and that under ideal conditions, such imagery is capable of distinguishing among groups of species where they breed contiguously. To demonstrate the potential for satellite imagery to estimate penguin population abundance, we use satellite imagery of Paulet Island (63°35′S, 55°47′W) to estimate a site-wide population of 115,673 (99,222–127,203) breeding pairs of Adélie penguins.     

The Paris Agreement objectives will likely halt future declines of emperor penguins

The Paris Agreement is a multinational initiative to combat climate change by keeping a global temperature increase in this century to 2°C above preindustrial levels while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C. Until recently, ensembles of coupled climate simulations producing temporal dynamics of climate en route to stable global mean temperature at 1.5 and 2°C above preindustrial levels were not available. Hence, the few studies that have assessed the ecological impact of the Paris Agreement used ad‐hoc approaches. The development of new specific mitigation climate simulations now provides an unprecedented opportunity to inform ecological impact assessments. Here we project the dynamics of all known emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri) colonies under new climate change scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement objectives using a climate‐dependent‐metapopulation model. Our model includes various dispersal behaviors so that penguins could modulate climate effects through movement and habitat selection. Under business‐as‐usual greenhouse gas emissions, we show that 80% of the colonies are projected to be quasiextinct by 2100, thus the total abundance of emperor penguins is projected to decline by at least 81% relative to its initial size, regardless of dispersal abilities. In contrast, if the Paris Agreement objectives are met, viable emperor penguin refuges will exist in Antarctica, and only 19% and 31% colonies are projected to be quasiextinct by 2100 under the Paris 1.5 and 2 climate scenarios respectively. As a result, the global population is projected to decline by at least by 31% under Paris 1.5 and 44% under Paris 2. However, population growth rates stabilize in 2060 such that the global population will be only declining at 0.07% under Paris 1.5 and 0.34% under Paris 2, thereby halting the global population decline. Hence, global climate policy has a larger capacity to safeguard the future of emperor penguins than their intrinsic dispersal abilities.