It is the economy,stupid! Projecting the fate of fish populations using ecological–economic modeling

Four marine fish species are among the most important on the world market: cod, salmon, tuna, and sea bass. While the supply of North American and European markets for two of these species – Atlantic salmon and European sea bass – mainly comes from fish farming, Atlantic cod and tunas are mainly caught from wild stocks. We address the question what will be the status of these wild stocks in the midterm future, in the year 2048, to be specific. Whereas the effects of climate change and ecological driving forces on fish stocks have already gained much attention, our prime interest is in studying the effects of changing economic drivers, as well as the impact of variable management effectiveness. Using a process‐based ecological–economic multispecies optimization model, we assess the future stock status under different scenarios of change. We simulate (i) technological progress in fishing, (ii) increasing demand for fish, and (iii) increasing supply of farmed fish, as well as the interplay of these driving forces under different scenarios of (limited) fishery management effectiveness. We find that economic change has a substantial effect on fish populations. Increasing aquaculture production can dampen the fishing pressure on wild stocks, but this effect is likely to be overwhelmed by increasing demand and technological progress, both increasing fishing pressure. The only solution to avoid collapse of the majority of stocks is institutional change to improve management effectiveness significantly above the current state. We conclude that full recognition of economic drivers of change will be needed to successfully develop an integrated ecosystem management and to sustain the wild fish stocks until 2048 and beyond.     

Risk map for the range expansion of Thrips palmi in Korea under climate change: Combining species distribution models with land-use change

Climate change and land-use change are the most powerful drivers for the invasion of alien species. To understand the integrated effects of these two drivers on pest invasion risk in the future, this study assessed how they impact the invasion risk of Thrips palmi Karny, which is the most serious invasive species in the Korean peninsula. The potential distribution of T. palmi was projected with a MaxEnt model for current and future climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) based on occurrence records. The potential distribution extends to the north over time, except the eastern high mountainous area, for both RCPs in 2075. The MaxEnt outputs were filtered with agricultural area using data from three land-use change scenarios derived from the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), because T. palmi populations can only be sustained in agricultural areas. The potential risk of T. palmi, based on the potential distribution probability in the future agricultural area, increased over time under all RCPs-SSPs combinations. The total area of T. palmi occurrence increased under RCPs-SSP1 and -SSP2 but decreased under RCPs-SSP3, due to agricultural areas being converted to urban areas. In conclusion, based on future climate change scenarios, T. palmi could be distributed throughout the Korean peninsula in the future. The invasion risk in agricultural areas will increase substantially; thus, intensive control measures for T. palmi are required in the future. Our research suggests that using both climate change and land-use change in pest risk mapping study can provide informative data for management strategy.     

Improved surveillance for early detection of a potential invasive species: the alien Rose-ringed parakeet <Emphasis Type="Italic">Psittacula krameri</Emphasis> in Australia

The Rose-ringed parakeet Psittacula krameri is the most widely introduced parrot in the world, and is an important agricultural pest and competitor with native wildlife. In Australia, it is classified as an ‘extreme threat’, yet captive individuals frequently escape into the wild. The distribution and frequency of incursions are currently unknown, as are the potential impacts of the species in Australia. This lack of critical ecological information greatly limits effective biosecurity surveillance and decision-making efforts. We compiled a unique dataset, which combined passive surveillance sources from government and online resources, for all available information on parakeet detections at-large in Australia. We investigated whether geographic variables successfully predicted parakeet incursions, and used species distribution models to assess the potential distribution and economic impacts on agricultural assets. We recorded 864 incursions for the period 1999–2013; mostly escaped birds reported to missing animal websites. Escapes were reported most frequently within, or around, large cities. Incursions were best predicted by factors related to human presence and activity, such as global human footprint and intensive land uses. We recommend surveillance of high (predicted) establishment areas adjacent to cities where a feral parakeet population could most affect horticultural production. Novel passive surveillance datasets combined with species distribution models can be used to identify the regions where potential invasive species are most likely to establish. Subsequently, active surveillance can be targeted to the areas of highest predicted potential risk. We recommend an integrated approach that includes outreach programs involving local communities, as well as traditional biosecurity surveillance, for detecting new incursions.     

The current and future potential geographical distribution of the oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis (Diptera: Tephritidae)

The oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel), is a major pest throughout South East Asia and in a number of Pacific Islands. As a result of their widespread distribution, pest status, invasive ability and potential impact on market access, B. dorsalis and many other fruit fly species are considered major threats to many countries. CLIMEX was used to model the potential global distribution of B. dorsalis under current and future climate scenarios. Under current climatic conditions, its projected potential distribution includes much of the tropics and subtropics and extends into warm temperate areas such as southern Mediterranean Europe. The model projects optimal climatic conditions for B. dorsalis in the south-eastern USA, where the principle range-limiting factor is likely to be cold stress. As a result of climate change, the potential global range for B. dorsalis is projected to extend further polewards as cold stress boundaries recede. However, the potential range contracts in areas where precipitation is projected to decrease substantially. The significant increases in the potential distribution of B. dorsalis projected under the climate change scenarios suggest that the World Trade Organization should allow biosecurity authorities to consider the effects of climate change when undertaking pest risk assessments. One of the most significant areas of uncertainty in climate change concerns the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Results are provided that span the range of standard Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios. The impact on the projected distribution of B. dorsalis is striking, but affects the relative abundance of the fly within the total suitable range more than the total area of climatically suitable habitat.     

Climate drivers of bark beetle outbreak dynamics in Norway spruce forests

Bark beetles are among the most devastating biotic agents affecting forests globally and several species are expected to be favored by climate change. Given the potential interactions of insect outbreaks with other biotic and abiotic disturbances, and the potentially strong impact of changing disturbance regimes on forest resources, investigating climatic drivers of destructive bark beetle outbreaks is of paramount importance. We analyzed 17 time‐series of the amount of wood damaged by Ips typographus, the most destructive pest of Norway spruce forests, collected across 8 European countries in the last three decades. We aimed to quantify the relative importance of key climate drivers in explaining timber loss dynamics, also testing for possible synergistic effects. Local outbreaks shared the same drivers, including increasing summer rainfall deficit and warm temperatures. Large availability of storm‐felled trees in the previous year was also strongly related to an increase in timber loss, likely by providing an alternative source of breeding material. We did not find any positive synergy among outbreak drivers. On the contrary, the occurrence of large storms reduced the positive effect of warming temperatures and rainfall deficit. The large surplus of breeding material likely boosted I. typographus population size above the density threshold required to colonize and kill healthy trees irrespective of other climate triggers. Importantly, we found strong negative density dependence in I. typographus that may provide a mechanism for population decline after population eruptions. Generality in the effects of complex climatic events across different geographical areas suggests that the large‐scale drivers can be used as early warning indicators of increasing local outbreak probability.     

Integrating multiple landscape-scale drivers in the lichen epiphyte response: climatic setting, pollution regime and woodland spatial-temporal structure

Aim To quantify the role of multiple biodiversity drivers – pollution, woodland structure and climate – controlling lichen epiphyte composition and diversity. Location  Scotland, north‐west Europe. Methods Four compatible datasets were assembled: site‐scale species distribution data (response) and base‐line modelled data on climate, pollution loads and extent of old‐growth woodland (explanatory variables). First, partial‐canonical correspondence analysis was used: (1) to compare the importance of environmental variables to pure spatial effects and (2) to partition the importance of environmental variables in explaining species composition. Secondly, patterns of species richness were investigated using multiple least‐squares regression. Results Old‐growth woodland was the most important control of species richness. Pollution was the most important explanatory variable for species composition. The impact of pollution on composition (and to a lesser extent on richness) is explained: (1) By recovery of lichens with declining SO₂ pollution, although with epiphyte composition shifted by the recent effects of N‐pollution and (2) By the limited spatial extent of severe pollution, and generally low‐to‐moderate pollution loads across our study area, combined with the positive effect of old‐growth woodland extent in controlling species richness. The effect of climate and old‐growth woodland on species composition covaried, supporting an interaction between habitat quality and climatic setting, which may be important in understanding the epiphyte response to climate change. Conclusions Advances in conservation planning will likely require an integrated approach to understanding simultaneous effects of multiple drivers, providing opportunities for integrated management strategies. Our study provides a preliminary example of this approach by combining three key biodiversity drivers into a single framework for lichen epiphytes. Thus, reducing pollution loads may make old‐growth woodland that currently exists in a polluted landscape available for colonization, thereby extending the available habitat for epiphytes, and facilitating an effective species response to climate change.     

The cichlid–Cichlidogyrus network: a blueprint for a model system of parasite evolution

Hydrobiologia - Species interactions are a key aspect of evolutionary biology. Parasites, specifically, are drivers of the evolution of species communities and impact biosecurity and public health....     

An empirical test of the relative and combined effects of land‐cover and climate change on local colonization and extinction

Land‐cover and climate change are two main drivers of changes in species ranges. Yet, the majority of studies investigating the impacts of global change on biodiversity focus on one global change driver and usually use simulations to project biodiversity responses to future conditions. We conduct an empirical test of the relative and combined effects of land‐cover and climate change on species occurrence changes. Specifically, we examine whether observed local colonization and extinctions of North American birds between 1981–1985 and 2001–2005 are correlated with land‐cover and climate change and whether bird life history and ecological traits explain interspecific variation in observed occurrence changes. We fit logistic regression models to test the impact of physical land‐cover change, changes in net primary productivity, winter precipitation, mean summer temperature, and mean winter temperature on the probability of Ontario breeding bird local colonization and extinction. Models with climate change, land‐cover change, and the combination of these two drivers were the top ranked models of local colonization for 30%, 27%, and 29% of species, respectively. Conversely, models with climate change, land‐cover change, and the combination of these two drivers were the top ranked models of local extinction for 61%, 7%, and 9% of species, respectively. The quantitative impacts of land‐cover and climate change variables also vary among bird species. We then fit linear regression models to test whether the variation in regional colonization and extinction rate could be explained by mean body mass, migratory strategy, and habitat preference of birds. Overall, species traits were weakly correlated with heterogeneity in species occurrence changes. We provide empirical evidence showing that land‐cover change, climate change, and the combination of multiple global change drivers can differentially explain observed species local colonization and extinction.     

MidgEmerge, a new predictive tool, indicates the presence of multiple emergence phenotypes of the overwintered generation of swede midge

The swede midge, Contarinia nasturtii (Kieffer) (Diptera: Cecidomyiidae), is a pest of cruciferous crops (Brassicaceae) in Europe and North America with high potential for economic impact. Effective timing of insecticide applications for swede midge control is difficult, in part due to a short adult lifespan. Predictive models are often used in integrated pest management programmes to facilitate the timing of control strategies. A European model, Contapré, for predicting adult swede midge emergence was shown to be inaccurate under Ontario field conditions. A new predictive model, MidgEmerge, was developed using DYMEX™ modelling software. MidgEmerge accurately predicts swede midge emergence in both Ontario and Québec. Observed emergence patterns cannot be explained without the presence of multiple emergence phenotypes. MidgEmerge indicates that there are two emergence phenotypes of the swede midge, each completing four generations per year in southern Ontario. A fifth generation of each may become possible with climate change. Evidence of a possible third emergence phenotype is presented. MidgEmerge has the potential to be an important predictive tool to inform and direct integrated pest management practices targeted against swede midge in North America.     

Climate change and the potential distribution of an invasive shrub, Lantana camara L

The threat posed by invasive species, in particular weeds, to biodiversity may be exacerbated by climate change. Lantana camara L. (lantana) is a woody shrub that is highly invasive in many countries of the world. It has a profound economic and environmental impact worldwide, including Australia. Knowledge of the likely potential distribution of this invasive species under current and future climate will be useful in planning better strategies to manage the invasion. A process-oriented niche model of L. camara was developed using CLIMEX to estimate its potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. The model was calibrated using data from several knowledge domains, including phenological observations and geographic distribution records. The potential distribution of lantana under historical climate exceeded the current distribution in some areas of the world, notably Africa and Asia. Under future scenarios, the climatically suitable areas for L. camara globally were projected to contract. However, some areas were identified in North Africa, Europe and Australia that may become climatically suitable under future climates. In South Africa and China, its potential distribution could expand further inland. These results can inform strategic planning by biosecurity agencies, identifying areas to target for eradication or containment. Distribution maps of risk of potential invasion can be useful tools in public awareness campaigns, especially in countries that have been identified as becoming climatically suitable for L. camara under the future climate scenarios.     

苹果蠹蛾种群遗传多样性研究进展

苹果蠹蛾是重要的世界性果树害虫,寄主广泛,通过形成各种生态型或种群适应新入侵环境,对当地果品生产造成严重损失。本文综述了国内外有关苹果蠹蛾遗传多样性的研究进展。相关研究表明,寄主植物、地理隔离和杀虫剂等因素影响种群间的遗传多样性和遗传分化。其中,地理隔离是种群间形成遗传分化的主要原因之一,寄主分布格局、气候条件、虫体飞行能力和人为活动等因素都会影响种群间遗传分化的程度。苹果蠹蛾是我国重要的入侵害虫,我国东北地区和西北地区的苹果蠹蛾种群具有不同的遗传多样性水平,并且种群间有一定程度的分化,今后需要进一步研究影响我国苹果蠹蛾种群遗传的重要因素,明确该虫种群间分化情况、入侵来源和扩散路径,这对于延缓苹果蠹蛾在我国的扩散,制定合理有效的综合防治策略具有重要意义。     

Declining population trends of European mountain birds

Mountain areas often hold special species communities, and they are high on the list of conservation concern. Global warming and changes in human land use, such as grazing pressure and afforestation, have been suggested to be major threats for biodiversity in the mountain areas, affecting species abundance and causing distribution shifts towards mountaintops. Population shifts towards poles and mountaintops have been documented in several areas, indicating that climate change is one of the key drivers of species’ distribution changes. Despite the high conservation concern, relatively little is known about the population trends of species in mountain areas due to low accessibility and difficult working conditions. Thanks to the recent improvement of bird monitoring schemes around Europe, we can here report a first account of population trends of 44 bird species from four major European mountain regions: Fennoscandia, UK upland, south‐western (Iberia) and south‐central mountains (Alps), covering 12 countries. Overall, the mountain bird species declined significantly (?7%) during 2002–2014, which is similar to the declining rate in common birds in Europe during the same period. Mountain specialists showed a significant ?10% decline in population numbers. The slope for mountain generalists was also negative, but not significantly so. The slopes of specialists and generalists did not differ from each other. Fennoscandian and Iberian populations were on average declining, while in United Kingdom and Alps, trends were nonsignificant. Temperature change or migratory behaviour was not significantly associated with regional population trends of species. Alpine habitats are highly vulnerable to climate change, and this is certainly one of the main drivers of mountain bird population trends. However, observed declines can also be partly linked with local land use practices. More efforts should be undertaken to identify the causes of decline and to increase conservation efforts for these populations.     

Drivers of freshwater fish colonisations and extirpations under climate change

Climate change is expected to bring about profound rearrangement of ecological communities by affecting individual species distributions. The resulting communities arise from the idiosyncratic responses of species to future changes, which ultimately relate to both shrinking and expanding species ranges. While spatial patterns of colonisation and extirpation events have received great attention, the identification of specific drivers remains poorly explored. This study aims to investigate the relative contribution of species gain and loss to the turnover of fish assemblages in French rivers under future climate change, and to identify their principal drivers. Future projections of potential habitat suitability in 2080 derived from species distribution models for 40 fish species showed that colonisations and extirpations could play counterbalancing roles in the reshuffling of communities. Simultaneously, these two processes exhibited patchy spatial patterns, segregated along the longitudinal and altitudinal gradients, resulting in dramatic species turnover of ～ 60% of the current composition of species assemblages. Beyond the effect of topographic location, colonisations were found to be driven by temperature seasonality while extirpations were affected by modifications in both thermal and precipitation regimes. These results generate the possibility of developing ecosystem‐based management tools focused on the early identification of areas where particular species may be sensitive to climate changes. Disentangling the drivers of colonisation and extirpation processes provides ready‐to‐use information that may be easily integrated into conservation planning. This information could be used to identify potential hotspots of species gain and loss and to then compare these hotspots with newly favourable areas so as to consider their actual accessibility in order to facilitate future range shifts.     

Urban trees: bridge-heads for forest pest invasions and sentinels for early detection

Urban trees have been increasingly appreciated for the many benefits they provide. As concentrated hubs of human-mediated movement, the urban landscape is, however, often the first point of contact for exotic pests including insects and plant pathogens. Consequently, urban trees can be important for accidentally introduced forest pests to become established and potentially invasive. Reductions in biodiversity and the potential for stressful conditions arising from anthropogenic disturbances can predispose these trees to pest attack, further increasing the likelihood of exotic forest pests becoming established and increasing in density. Once established in urban environments, dispersal of introduced pests can proceed to natural forest landscapes or planted forests. In addition to permanent long-term damage to natural ecosystems, the consequences of these invasions include costly attempts at eradication and post establishment management strategies. We discuss a range of ecological, economic and social impacts arising from these incursions and the importance of global biosecurity is highlighted as a crucially important barrier to pest invasions. Finally, we suggest that urban trees may be viewed as ‘sentinel plantings’. In particular, botanical gardens and arboreta frequently house large collections of exotic plantings, providing a unique opportunity to help predict and prevent the invasion of new pests, and where introduced pests with the capacity to cause serious impacts in forest environments could potentially be detected during the initial stages of establishment. Such early detection offers the only realistic prospect of eradication, thereby reducing damaging ecological impacts and long term management costs.     

Balancing bioenergy and biosecurity policies: estimating current and future climate suitability patterns for a bioenergy crop

In an apparent paradox, bioenergy crops offer potential benefits to a world adjusting to the challenges of climate change and declining fossil fuel stocks, as well as potential ecological and economic threats resulting from biological invasions. In considering this paradox it is important to understand that benefits and threats may not always be apparent in equal measure throughout the potential range of each candidate biofuel species. In some environments, a species could potentially produce valuable biological materials without posing a significant invasion threat. In this study, we develop a bioclimatic niche model for a candidate biofuel crop, Millettia pinnata, and apply the model to different climatic and irrigation scenarios to estimate the current and future patterns of climate suitability for its growth and naturalization. We use Australia as a case study for interpreting the niche model in terms that may be informative for both biofuels proponents and biosecurity regulators to plan management programmes that reflect the invasive potential in different areas. The model suggests that suitable growing conditions for M. pinnata in Australia are naturally restricted to the moist and semimoist tropics. Irrigation can extend the suitable growing conditions more widely throughout the tropics, and into more arid regions. Under future climate scenarios, suitable growing conditions for M. pinnata under natural rainfall contract towards the east coast, and extend southward into the subtropics. With irrigation, M. pinnata appears to have the potential in the future to naturalize across much of Australia. The bioclimatic modelling method demonstrated here is comparatively quick and easy, and can produce a rich array of data products to inform the interests of both bioenergy proponents and biosecurity regulators. We show how this modelling can support the development of spatially explicit biosecurity policies designed to manage invasion risks in a manner that balances bioenergy and biosecurity concerns.     

Synergistic effects of climate and land‐use change influence broad‐scale avian population declines

Climate and land‐use changes are expected to be the primary drivers of future global biodiversity loss. Although theory suggests that these factors impact species synergistically, past studies have either focused on only one in isolation or have substituted space for time, which often results in confounding between drivers. Tests of synergistic effects require congruent time series on animal populations, climate change and land‐use change replicated across landscapes that span the gradient of correlations between the drivers of change. Using a unique time series of high‐resolution climate (measured as temperature and precipitation) and land‐use change (measured as forest change) data, we show that these drivers of global change act synergistically to influence forest bird population declines over 29 years in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. Nearly half of the species examined had declined over this time. Populations declined most in response to loss of early seral and mature forest, with responses to loss of early seral forest amplified in landscapes that had warmed over time. In addition, birds declined more in response to loss of mature forest in areas that had dried over time. Climate change did not appear to impact populations in landscapes with limited habitat loss, except when those landscapes were initially warmer than the average landscape. Our results provide some of the first empirical evidence of synergistic effects of climate and land‐use change on animal population dynamics, suggesting accelerated loss of biodiversity in areas under pressure from multiple global change drivers. Furthermore, our findings suggest strong spatial variability in the impacts of climate change and highlight the need for future studies to evaluate multiple drivers simultaneously to avoid potential misattribution of effects.     

Detecting host–parasitoid interactions in an invasive Lepidopteran using nested tagging DNA metabarcoding

Determining the host–parasitoid interactions and parasitism rates for invasive species entering novel environments is an important first step in assessing potential routes for biocontrol and integrated pest management. Conventional insect rearing techniques followed by taxonomic identification are widely used to obtain such data, but this can be time‐consuming and prone to biases. Here, we present a next‐generation sequencing approach for use in ecological studies which allows for individual‐level metadata tracking of large numbers of invertebrate samples through the use of hierarchically organised molecular identification tags. We demonstrate its utility using a sample data set examining both species identity and levels of parasitism in late larval stages of the oak processionary moth (Thaumetopoea processionea—Linn. 1758), an invasive species recently established in the United Kingdom. Overall, we find that there are two main species exploiting the late larval stages of oak processionary moth in the United Kingdom with the main parasitoid (Carcelia iliaca—Ratzeburg, 1840) parasitising 45.7% of caterpillars, while a rare secondary parasitoid (Compsilura concinnata—Meigen, 1824) was also detected in 0.4% of caterpillars. Using this approach on all life stages of the oak processionary moth may demonstrate additional parasitoid diversity. We discuss the wider potential of nested tagging DNA metabarcoding for constructing large, highly resolved species interaction networks.     

Pest pressure,hurricanes, and genotype interact to strongly impact stem form in young loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) along the coastal plain of North Carolina

Key message

Stem defects in loblolly pine due to insect pests and wind damage can decrease economic value and affect ecosystem function, however silvicultural management can decrease the impact of these stresses.

Abstract

Loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) is one of the most important tree crops in the southern United States, comprising 45 % of commercial forestry land. Stem defects can reduce timber product quality and influence competitive interactions. We examined the effects of controlling Nantucket pine tip moth (Rhyacionia frustrata Scudder in Comstock, 1880) and site management (fertilizer or herbicide use) on stem defects, of two full-sib families (C1 and C2) and two clonal varieties (V1 and V2) of loblolly pine at upper and lower coastal plain sites in North Carolina (UCP and LCP, respectively). At UCP, V1 and V2 had fewer stem defects with insecticide treatment indicating that pest pressure affected stem form. C2 had twice as many defects as other genotypes at LCP, while C1 had the most defects at UCP, showing that carefully matching site and genotype could improve plantation performance without increasing costs. Additionally, we examined the effects of Hurricane Irene on stem leaning at LCP. V1, the tallest genotype, was most strongly affected, indicating genotype differences in tolerance to this form of abiotic stress. Interestingly, insecticide treatment decreased the negative effects of the hurricane on C1 stem lean, indicating that tip moth pressure may make C1 more susceptible. Our results illustrate that the interaction of biotic and abiotic stressors, such as pest infestation and climate, can strongly impact stem form, potentially affecting ecophysiological function and economic value. Cost-effective silvicultural options, such as pest control and management of genetic resources can potentially decrease exposure to such environmental risk.     

Taxonomic identity, phylogeny, climate and soil fertility as drivers of leaf traits across Chinese grassland biomes

Although broad-scale inter-specific patterns of leaf traits are influenced by climate, soil, and taxonomic identity, integrated assessments of these drivers remain rare. Here, we quantify these drivers in a field study of 171 plant species in 174 sites across Chinese grasslands, including the Tibetan Plateau, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang. General linear models were used to partition leaf trait variation. Of the total variation in leaf traits, on average 27% is due to taxonomic or phylogenetic differences among species within sites (pure species effect), 29% to variation among sites within species (pure site effect), 38% to joint effects of taxonomic and environmental factors (shared effect), and 6.2% to within-site and within-species variation. Examining the pure site effect, climate explained 7.8%, soil explained 7.4%, and climate and soil variables together accounted for 11%, leaving 18% of the inter-site variation due to factors other than climate or soil. The results do not support the hypothesis that soil fertility is the “missing link” to explain leaf trait variation unexplained by climatic factors. Climate- and soil-induced leaf adaptations occur mostly among species, and leaf traits vary little within species in Chinese grassland plants, despite strongly varying climate and soil conditions.     

Predicting non-native insect impact: focusing on the trees to see the forest

Non-native organisms have invaded novel ecosystems for centuries, yet we have only a limited understanding of why their impacts vary widely from minor to severe. Predicting the impact of non-established or newly detected species could help focus biosecurity measures on species with the highest potential to cause widespread damage. However, predictive models require an understanding of potential drivers of impact and the appropriate level at which these drivers should be evaluated. Here, we used non-native, specialist herbivorous insects of forest ecosystems to test which factors drive impact and if there were differences based on whether they used woody angiosperms or conifers as hosts. We identified convergent and divergent patterns between the two host types indicating fundamental similarities and differences in their interactions with non-native insects. Evolutionary divergence time between native and novel hosts was a significant driver of insect impact for both host types but was modulated by different factors in the two systems. Beetles in the subfamily Scolytinae posed the highest risk to woody angiosperms, and different host traits influenced impact of specialists on conifers and woody angiosperms. Tree wood density was a significant predictor of host impact for woody angiosperms with intermediate densities (0.5–0.6 mg/mm³) associated with highest risk, whereas risk of impact was highest for conifers that coupled shade tolerance with drought intolerance. These results underscore the importance of identifying the relevant levels of biological organization and ecological interactions needed to develop accurate risk models for species that may arrive in novel ecosystems.