Losing anti‐predatory behaviour: A cost of translocation

Translocation of endangered species to habitats where exotic predators have been removed is now a common conservation practice around the world. Many of these translocated populations have thrived, and they are often used as sources for the harvesting of individuals for translocations to sites where exotic predators still exist, albeit at reduced densities. This study investigates how isolation from exotic predators affects the ability of individuals to recognize such predators using the North Island robin (Petroica longipes) as a model. The study was carried out in three robin populations in the North Island, New Zealand: a translocated population on Tiritiri Matangi Island, where exotic mammalian predators are absent; a population reintroduced from Tiritiri Matangi Island to Wenderholm Regional Park, a mainland site where these mammals are controlled to low densities; and a mainland population at Benneydale where exotic predatory mammals are common. The response intensity of robins to a model stoat was high at Benneydale and low at Tiritiri Matangi and Wenderholm. This result indicates that isolation from mammalian predators on Tiritiri Matangi has suppressed the ability of North Island robins to recognize these predators. It is possible that the low predatory mammal densities at Wenderholm have reduced robin contact with stoats, therefore reduced the opportunity for robins to learn to recognize stoats. Thus, translocation of individuals from populations without predators to places where key predators still exist could be unsuccessful if translocated individuals fail to perform appropriate anti‐predator behaviours.     

Nest‐site selection and demography of Wilson's Plovers on a North Carolina barrier island

Despite concerns about their population status, information about the habitat preferences, population size, and vital statistics of Wilson's Plovers (Charadrius wilsonia) is currently lacking. We compared habitat characteristics of nest sites and unused sites and examined factors affecting nest success on a barrier island in North Carolina in 2010 and 2011. We monitored 83 nests with cameras and added heart‐rate monitors in artificial eggs to 36 of these nests for a concurrent study of the effects of jet overflights; predator exclosures were placed around 17 of the nests with cameras. Wilson's Plovers used interdune areas, flats, and isolated dunelets on flats more than expected based on availability, and nests were located closer to dense vegetation than unused sites. Nests in interdune areas had higher daily survival rates than nests on flats, but distance to dense vegetation did not affect nest survival. Nests without cameras, heart‐rate monitors, or exclosures had a 35% predicted probability of hatching at least one egg. Exclosed nests had higher daily survival rates than nests without exclosures, but daily survival rates were lower for nests with cameras or heart‐rate monitors and for nests initiated later in the season. Daily survival rates also declined as nests aged. The predicted probability of fledging was 74%, resulting in a reproductive output of 0.78 fledglings/pair. Apparent annual adult survival was 77%, and the apparent annual survival rate for birds banded as chicks was 42%. Additional research is needed throughout the range of Wilson's Plovers to determine if populations are stable or decreasing, and to predict the productivity rates needed to maintain current populations. However, our results suggest that in our study area, predator removal and protection of sparsely vegetated overwash habitats will likely have the greatest impact on reproductive output.     

Effect of the blood-sucking mite

Pathological consequences of the blood-sucking mite Ornithonyssus bursa vary between species, with its impact ranging from no measurable effect, to significant blood loss and chick mortality. In New Zealand, where several bird species are known to be parasitised by O.bursa, the effect of this mite on host fitness is unclear, as few studies have been carried out. During a three-year study of the North Island robin Petroica longipes on Tiritiri Matangi Island, the prevalence of O. bursa in robin nests and on chicks and its impact on robin chick growth and survival was measured. The presence of mites was correlated with both time of the season and humidity of the habitat, with infestation being positively correlated with later nesting attempts and more humid microclimates. Robin chicks in infested nests were significantly smaller and fledged at an earlier age than chicks in nests where no mites were detected. Despite this effect, no significant difference in body size or survival was detected between the two groups at one month post-fledging. This was most likely because chicks from mite- infested nests compensated for their retarded growth once they left the nest environment. On mainland New Zealand, where ground-dwelling mammalian predators are present, chicks forced to leave the nest at an earlier age with less developed flying skills may be at an increased risk of predation.     

Using artificial nests to predict nest survival at reintroduction sites

Artificial nests are frequently used to assess factors affecting survival of natural bird nests. We tested the potential for artificial nests to be used in a novel application, the prediction of nest predation rates at potential reintroduction sites where exotic predators are being controlled. We collected artificial nest data from nine sites with different predator control regimes around the North Island of New Zealand, and compared the nest survival rates with those of North Island robin (Petroica longipes) nests at the same sites. Most of the robin populations had been reintroduced in the last 10 years, and were known to vary in nest survival and status (increasing/stable or declining). We derived estimates of robin nest survival for each site based on Stanley estimates of daily survival probabilities and the known incubation and brooding periods of robins. Estimates of artificial nest survival for each site were derived using the known fate model in MARK. We identified the imprints on the clay eggs in the artificial nests, and obtained different estimates of artificial nest survival based on imprints made by different potential predators. We then compared the value of these estimates for predicting natural nest survival, assuming a relationship of the form s = αpβ, where s is natural nest survival and p is artificial nest survival. Artificial nest survival estimates based on imprints made by rats (Rattus spp.) and brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula) were clearly the best predictors (based on AICc), and explained 64% of the variation in robin nest survival among sites. Inclusion of bird imprints in the artificial nest survival estimates substantially reduced their predictive value. We suggest that artificial nests may provide a useful tool for predicting the suitability of potential reintroduction sites for New Zealand forest birds as long as imprints on clay eggs are correctly identified.     

Of mice and mallards: positive indirect effects of coexisting prey on waterfowl nest success

Coexisting prey species interact indirectly via their shared predators when one prey type influences predation rates of the second prey type. In a temperate system where the predominant shared predator is a generalist, I studied the indirect effects of rodent populations on waterfowl nest success, both within the nesting season among sites and among years. Among six to ten upland fields (14 to 27 ha), mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ) nest success was positively correlated with rodent abundance in all three years of the study. After removing year effects, mallard nest success remained positively correlated with the relative abundance of rodents. Of the rodent species present, California voles ( Microtus californicus ) were the most important coexisting prey type influencing nest success. Among years, mallard nest success was positively correlated with vole abundance; the asymptotic relationship suggests a threshold response to vole abundance, beyond which predators become satiated and additional voles do little to affect nest success. I tested and rejected three alternative explanations for the observed positive correlation between mallard nest success and rodent abundance that do not involve an indirect effect of coexisting prey populations. The influences of dense nesting cover, nesting density, and predator activity did not explain the observed patterns of nest success. These results suggest that rodent populations buffer predation on waterfowl nests, both within and among years, via the behavioral responses of shared predators to coexisting prey.     

Effects of Large-Scale Predator Reduction on Nest Success of Upland Nesting Ducks

ABSTRACT Population growth for mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), and presumably other upland nesting ducks, in the Prairie Pothole Region of the United States and Canada is most sensitive to nest success, and nest success is most strongly influenced by predation. We evaluated the efficacy of reducing predator populations to improve nest success of upland nesting ducks on township-sized (93.2 km²) management units in eastern North Dakota, USA, during 2005–2007. We monitored 7,489 nests on 7 trapped and 5 nontrapped sites. Trappers annually removed an average of 245 predators per trapped site, and we found nest success to be 1.4–1.9 times greater on trapped sites than nontrapped sites, depending on year. Nest success was greater on both trapped and nontrapped sites when compared with a study conducted in the same areas in the mid-1990s, likely because of changes in red fox (Vulpes vulpes) and coyote (Canis latrans) population dynamics. Nests initiated midseason had higher daily survival rates (DSR) than those initiated earlier or later in the season. Daily survival rates for nests in the middle of the nesting cycle were higher than for nests that were early in laying or late in incubation. Nests near the periphery of trapped sites had slightly higher DSRs than nests in the center of trapped sites. Predator reduction at the township scale provides managers with an effective tool to improve nest success at large spatial scales.     

Snake behavior and seasonal variation in nest survival of northern cardinals Cardinalis cardinalis

Seasonal variation in nest success is well documented for many bird species. Predator behavior has been suggested as a mechanism behind these seasonal patterns, but this hypothesis has received little attention. Here we test the hypothesis that predator behavior produces seasonal patterns of nest success by relating nest success of northern cardinals Cardinalis cardinalis to the activity of Texas rat snakes Elaphe obsoleta. Cardinal nest survival varied over the season and was lower when rat snakes were more active. The probability that a nest survived was associated both with when cardinals nested and with nest height, indicating that both temporal and habitat factors affected predation risk. The increased success of higher nests could be associated with some aspect of rat snakes’ climbing ability. In combination with results for two other species studied previously at the same location, our results for cardinals suggest that the specific seasonal pattern of nest success expected for a given bird species will depend on how its nesting season coincides with predator activity. Determining the generality of seasonal variation in predator behavior as a mechanism for producing seasonal patterns of avian nest success will require additional studies that investigate birds and their nest predators simultaneously.     

Predator‐mediated interactions between preferred,alternative and incidental prey in the arctic tundra

Apparent competition between prey is hypothesized to occur more frequently in environments with low densities of preferred prey, where predators are forced to forage for multiple prey items. In the arctic tundra, numerical and functional responses of predators to preferred prey (lemmings) affect the predation pressure on alternative prey (goose eggs) and predators aggregate in areas of high alternative prey density. Therefore, we hypothesized that predation risk on incidental prey (shorebird eggs) would increase in patches of high goose nest density when lemmings were scarce. To test this hypothesis, we measured predation risk on artificial shorebird nests in quadrats varying in goose nest density on Bylot Island (Nunavut, Canada) across three summers with variable lemming abundance. Predation risk on artificial shorebird nests was positively related to goose nest density, and this relationship was strongest at low lemming abundance when predation risk increased by 600% as goose nest density increased from 0 to 12 nests ha^?1. Camera monitoring showed that activity of arctic foxes, the most important predator, increased with goose nest density. Our data support our incidental prey hypothesis; when preferred prey decrease in abundance, predator mediated apparent competition via aggregative response occurs between the alternative and incidental prey items.     

Increased nest defence of upland‐nesting ducks in response to experimentally reduced risk of nest predation

Parent birds should take greater risks defending nests that have a higher probability of success. Given high rates of mammalian nest predation, therefore, parents should risk more for nests in areas with a lower risk of mammalian predation. We tested this hypothesis using nest defence data from over 1300 nests of six species of dabbling ducks studied in an area where predation risk had been reduced through removal of mammalian predators. When predator removal reduced nest predation, the ducks increased risk taking as predicted. Also as predicted, risk taking varied inversely with body size, an index of annual survival, among species. For ducks to vary nest defence in response to variation in predation risk they must be able to assess the risk of nest predation. Because ducks modified nest defence in the breeding season immediately following predator removal, ducks may be able to assess predator abundance indirectly (e.g. by UV reflection from urine) rather than by seeing or interacting directly with the predators.     

Factors Affecting Nest Survival of Greater Sage-Grouse in Northcentral Montana

Abstract: We studied greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in northcentral Montana, USA, to examine the relationship between nest success and habitat conditions, environmental variables, and female sage-grouse characteristics. During 2001-2003, we radiomarked 243 female greater sage-grouse, monitored 287 nests, and measured 426 vegetation plots at 4 sites in a 3,200-km² landscape. Nest survival varied with year, grass canopy cover, daily precipitation with a 1-day lag effect, and nesting attempt. In all years, daily survival rate increased on the day of a rain event and decreased the next day. There was temporal variation in nest success both within and among years: success of early (first 28 d of nesting season) nests ranged from 0.238 (SE = 0.080) in 2001 to 0.316 (SE = 0.055) in 2003, whereas survival of late (last 28 d of nesting season) nests ranged from 0.276 (SE = 0.090) in 2001 to 0.418 (SE = 0.055) in 2003. Renests experienced higher survival than first nests. Grass cover was the only important model term that could be managed, but direction and magnitude of the grass effect varied. Site, shrub and forb canopy cover, and Robel pole reading were less useful predictors of nest success; however, temporal and spatial variation in these habitat covariates was low during our study. We note a marked difference between both values and interpretations of apparent nest success, which have been used almost exclusively in the past, and maximum-likelihood estimates used in our study. Annual apparent nest success (0.46) was, on average, 53% higher than maximum-likelihood estimates that incorporate individual, environmental, and habitat covariates. The difference between estimates was variable (range = +8% to +91%). Management of habitats for nesting sage-grouse should focus on increasing grass cover to increase survival of first nests and contribute to favorable conditions for renesting, which should be less likely if survival of first nests increases.     

Do seasonal patterns of rat snake (Pantherophis obsoletus) and black racer (Coluber constrictor) activity predict avian nest predation?

Avian nest success often varies seasonally and because predation is the primary cause of nest failure, seasonal variation in predator activity has been hypothesized to explain seasonal variation in nest success. Despite the fact that nest predator communities are often diverse, recent evidence from studies of snakes that are nest predators has lent some support to the link between snake activity and nest predation. However, the strength of the relationship has varied among studies. Explaining this variation is difficult, because none of these studies directly identified nest predators, the link between predator activity and nest survival was inferred. To address this knowledge gap, we examined seasonal variation in daily survival rates of 463 bird nests (of 17 bird species) and used cameras to document predator identity at 137 nests. We simultaneously quantified seasonal activity patterns of two local snake species (N = 30 individuals) using manual (2136 snake locations) and automated (89,165 movements detected) radiotelemetry. Rat snakes (Pantherophis obsoletus), the dominant snake predator at the site (~28% of observed nest predations), were most active in late May and early June, a pattern reported elsewhere for this species. When analyzing all monitored nests, we found no link between nest predation and seasonal activity of rat snakes. When analyzing only nests with known predator identities (filmed nests), however, we found that rat snakes were more likely to prey on nests during periods when they were moving the greatest distances. Similarly, analyses of all monitored nests indicated that nest survival was not linked to racer activity patterns, but racer‐specific predation (N = 17 nests) of filmed nests was higher when racers were moving the greatest distances. Our results suggest that the activity of predators may be associated with higher predation rates by those predators, but that those effects can be difficult to detect when nest predator communities are diverse and predator identities are not known. Additionally, our results suggest that hand‐tracking of snakes provides a reliable indicator of predator activity that may be more indicative of foraging behavior than movement frequency provided by automated telemetry systems.     

No evidence for observer effects on Lark Sparrow nest survival

ABSTRACT Methods for monitoring bird nests might influence rates of nest predation, but the effects of various methods (e.g., visual markers and observer visitation rates) are often separately investigated among disparate avian taxa and geographic regions. Few investigators have explored the potential effects observers might have on nest success of grassland birds, despite concerns regarding population declines of these species in North America. We examined the possible effects of three monitoring techniques on daily nest survival of Lark Sparrows (Chondestes grammacus): (1) presence or absence of visible markers near nests, (2) observer visitation frequency, and (3) presence or absence of data loggers in nests. We monitored 113 Lark Sparrow nests during the 2009 breeding season. Of these nests, 88.5% failed due to predation, abandonment, weather, or unknown causes, yielding an overall nest success estimate of 9.8% based on daily survival estimation. Main effects of each monitoring technique appeared in top (ΔAICc <2) logistic exposure models. However, 95% confidence intervals around parameter estimates for each technique included zero, indicating no significant effects on daily nest survival. Our results suggest that the nest‐monitoring techniques we used had no effect on Lark Sparrow nest success and, if true, nest survival of other songbirds in arid grasslands of the Great Plains may also be unaffected by cautious nest monitoring. However, we cannot rule out the possibility that any effects of the various techniques in our study were masked by locally intense nest predation. Therefore, additional study is needed to determine if there may be observable variation in nest survival among various nest‐monitoring treatments in other areas of the southern Great Plains where nest predation is less frequent.     

Factors Affecting Daily Nest Survival of Burrowing Owls Within Black-Tailed Prairie Dog Colonies

ABSTRACT Identifying environmental parameters that influence probability of nest predation is important for developing and implementing effective management strategies for species of conservation concern. We estimated daily nest survival for a migratory population of burrowing owls (Athene cunicularia) breeding in black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) colonies in Wyoming, USA. We compared estimates based on 3 common approaches: apparent nesting success, Mayfield estimates, and a model-based logistic-exposure approach. We also examined whether 8 intrinsic and extrinsic factors affected daily nest survival in burrowing owls. Positive biases in apparent nest survival were low (3–6%), probably because prior knowledge of nest locations and colonial behavior among nesting pairs facilitated discovery of most nests early in the nesting cycle. Daily nest survival increased as the breeding season progressed, was negatively correlated with ambient temperature, was positively correlated with nest-burrow tunnel length, and decreased as the nesting cycle progressed. Environmental features were similar between failed and successful nests based on 95% confidence intervals, but the seasonal midpoint was earlier for failed nests (31 May) compared to successful nests (15 Jun). The large annual variation in nest survival (a 15.3% increase between 2003 and 2004) accentuates the importance of multiyear studies when estimating reproductive parameters and when examining the factors that affect those parameters. Failure to locate and monitor nests throughout the breeding season may yield biased estimates of nesting success in burrowing owls (and possibly other species), and some of the variation in nesting success among years and across study sites may be explained by annual and spatial variation in ambient temperature. Any management actions that result in fewer prairie dogs, shorter burrow lengths, or earlier nesting may adversely affect reproductive success of burrowing owls.     

Effects of Mesopredators on Nest Survival of Shrub-Nesting Songbirds

ABSTRACT Although nest predation is often the single largest source of mortality in avian populations, manipulative studies to determine predator impacts on nest survival are rare, particularly studies that examine impacts of mid-size mammalian predators (hereafter, mesopredators) on nest survival of shrub-nesting birds. We quantified nest survival and identified nest predators of shrub-nesting songbirds within 4 large (approx. 40-ha) exclosures and 4 control sites within a longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) ecosystem. During 2003–2006, we located and monitored 535 shrub nests (222 with videography) for 4,804 nest-days to quantify daily nest survival and document predation events. We found no support for a treatment effect, suggesting mesopredators had little impact on daily nest survival (0.9303 in controls and 0.9260 in exclosures) of shrub-nesting songbirds. For the 5 most commonly monitored species, daily nest survival within species was constant. Our analysis suggested that shrub nests were most vulnerable during the nestling stage and presence of cameras on nests increased survival with the increase in survival being more pronounced during the incubation stage. We filmed 107 nest predation events, identifying predators at 88 nests. Of these 88 nests, snakes caused 33%, red imported fire ants (hereafter fire ants, Solenopsis invicta) 28%, raptors 17%, corvids 8%, mesopredators 6%, and small mammals 8% of nest predations. Cause-specific nest predation in controls and exclosures did not differ from expectation, providing evidence that compensatory predation did not occur. Nest predators differed from expectation with regard to nest stage; fire ants and raptors only depredated nests during the nestling stage. Presence of cameras had no effect on nest abandonment. Fire ants were the most prevalent nest predator, and nest predation by fire ants was only observed on nestlings, potentially reducing likelihood of renesting. Magnitude and timing of fire ant predation suggests that fire ants may be the most influential nest predator of shrub-nesting birds within the longleaf pine ecosystem. Our data suggest that controlling mesopredators will have no effect on nest success of shrub-nesting birds within longleaf pine forests.     

Which factors limited stitchbird population growth on Mokoia Island?

Reintroduction programmes need to be monitored as a way of gauging potential causes of their success or failure. This, in turn, can be used to improve the likelihood of future translocation success. Since the 1990s, stitchbird (or hihi: Notiomystis cincta) translocations have been intensively monitored, with comparisons between two of these projects (Tiritiri Matangi Island ? a successful introduction, and Mokoia Island ? an unsuccessful introduction) often compared and contrasted as a means of identifying factors important in translocation success for this species. A consistently low adult survival rate on Mokoia Island in conjunction with a study showing a high prevalence of aspergillosis (a fungal disease of the respiratory tract caused by Aspergillus fumigatus) in adult stitchbirds led to this disease being commonly discussed as a major factor responsible for the difference in translocation outcomes. However, A. fumigatus infection rates have never been compared between the two stitchbird populations; thus, population differences in adult survival may have resulted from other factors. One possibility is that survival differences between populations were influenced by differing predation pressures from morepork (or ruru: Ninox novaeseelandiae). Evidence of stitchbird predation by moreporks and the fact that morepork density on Mokoia Island was markedly higher than on Tiritiri Matangi Island provides some support for this hypothesis. It is important that all plausible hypotheses for differences in survival be considered so that we can better evaluate future conservation strategies that target the recovery of this species.     

Impacts of nest predators and weather on reproductive success and population limitation in a long‐distance migratory songbird

Although avian nesting success is much studied, little is known about the relative importance of the factors that contribute to annual reproductive success and population limitation, especially for long‐distance migratory songbird species. We combined a field experiment limiting access to nests by mammalian predators with modeling of long‐term field data of American redstarts (Parulidae: Setophaga ruticilla) to assess the effects of multiple environmental variables on breeding success and population limitation. Experimental treatment (baffles placed around tree boles beneath active nests; n = 71) increased nesting success of this single‐brooded species significantly (77 vs 50% in controls; n = 343), demonstrating that scansorial mammals, primarily red squirrels Tamiasciurus hudsonicus and eastern chipmunks Tamias striatus, reduced reproductive success. Based on unbaffled nests (n = 466), daily nest survival varied annually, and was positively influenced by May temperature and negatively by sciurid nest predator abundance. Daily nest survival was also influenced positively by June rainfall, and declined with nest age but not with calendar date. Since nest failure was overwhelmingly caused by nest predation, these significant climate and nest‐age effects in our models are indirect, likely influencing nest predator and/or nesting bird behaviors that in turn influenced nest predation. Redstart population density had no effect on nesting success, after accounting for other factors. Annual reproductive success accounted for 34% of the variability in annual population change in redstarts in our study area. Our findings document 1) breeding season population limitation in this species, 2) a link between tree masting and bird population dynamics via mammal population fluctuations, 3) the independent contributions of summer versus winter population processes in a migratory species, and 4) the potential complexity of climate‐biotic interactions.     

Nest Predation Deviates from Nest Predator Abundance in an Ecologically Trapped Bird

In human-modified environments, ecological traps may result from a preference for low-quality habitat where survival or reproductive success is lower than in high-quality habitat. It has often been shown that low reproductive success for birds in preferred habitat types was due to higher nest predator abundance. However, between-habitat differences in nest predation may only weakly correlate with differences in nest predator abundance. An ecological trap is at work in a farmland bird (Lanius collurio) that recently expanded its breeding habitat into open areas in plantation forests. This passerine bird shows a strong preference for forest habitat, but it has a higher nest success in farmland. We tested whether higher abundance of nest predators in the preferred habitat or, alternatively, a decoupling of nest predator abundance and nest predation explained this observed pattern of maladaptive habitat selection. More than 90% of brood failures were attributed to nest predation. Nest predator abundance was more than 50% higher in farmland, but nest predation was 17% higher in forest. Differences between nest predation on actual shrike nests and on artificial nests suggested that parent shrikes may facilitate nest disclosure for predators in forest more than they do in farmland. The level of caution by parent shrikes when visiting their nest during a simulated nest predator intrusion was the same in the two habitats, but nest concealment was considerably lower in forest, which contributes to explaining the higher nest predation in this habitat. We conclude that a decoupling of nest predator abundance and nest predation may create ecological traps in human-modified environments.     

Predation risk effects on fitness related measures in a resident bird

Predation risk is thought to be highly variable in space and time. However, breeding avian predators may create locally fixed and spatially fairly predictable predation risk determined by the distance to their nest. From the prey perspective, this creates predation risk gradients that potentially have an effect on fitness and behavioural decisions of prey. We studied how breeding avian predators affect habitat selection (nest location) and the resulting fitness consequences in a northern population of resident willow tit ( Parus montanus ). Data included 429 willow tit nests over a four year period in a landscape containing a total of 33 avian predator nests. Willow tit nests were located randomly in the landscape and no predator avoidance in habitat selection or emptying of territories in proximity to predators was observed. Nestling size, however, was positively associated with distance from predator nests (n=252). Nestling mass and wing length were about 4.5% smaller close to predator nests compared to nestlings raised far from predator nests. Tarsus length also exhibited a positive relationship with increasing distance from predator nest but this was limited to habitats of young forests and pine bogs or dense mixed forests (4% increase). It is likely that habitat structural complexity influenced the perception of predation risk in different habitats. Our results indicate that willow tits do not provide reliable cues of predator free habitats for settling migrants. Nonetheless, breeding avian predators may create predictable predation risk in the landscape which is an important factor affecting reproductive success and potentially the demography of prey populations.     

Identifying predators clarifies predictors of nest success in a temperate passerine

1.  Nest predation negatively affects most avian populations. Studies of nest predation usually group all nest failures when attempting to determine temporal and parental activities, habitat or landscape predictors of success. Often these studies find few significant predictors and interpret patterns as essentially random.
2.  Relatively little is known about the importance of individual predator species or groups on observed patterns of nest success, and how the ecology of these predators may influence patterns of success and failure.
3.  In 2006 and 2007, time-lapse, infrared video systems were deployed at nests of Swainson's warblers ( Limnothlypis swainsonii Audubon) in east-central Arkansas to identify dominant nest predators and determine whether factors predicting predation differed among these predators.
4.  Analysis of pooled data yielded few predictors of predation risk, whereas separate analyses for the three major predator groups revealed clear, but often conflicting, patterns.
5.  Predation by ratsnakes ( Elaphe obsoleta ) and raptors was more common during the nestling period, whereas predation by brown-headed cowbirds ( Molothrus ater ) occurred more during incubation. Additionally, the risk of predation by raptors and cowbirds decreased throughout the breeding season, whereas ratsnake predation risk increased.
6.  Contrary to expectations, predation by ratsnakes and cowbirds was more common far from edges, whereas raptor predation was more common close to agricultural edges.
7.  Collectively, our results suggest that associating specific predators with the nests they prey on is necessary to understand underlying mechanisms.     

Nest success and hatchling survival of American alligators within inland wetlands of east Texas

Because of liberalization of American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis) harvest management in Texas, estimates of nest success and hatchling survival for inland populations are essential for long-term, sustainable population and harvest management. To date, few studies have examined American alligator nest success and hatchling survival. We initiated a 3-year study from 2006 to 2008 to document alligator nest success and hatchling survival within several wetlands in east Texas. From June 2006 to August 2008, we located 30 nests from 3 wetlands within east Texas, where overall nest success was 44.2% (95% CI = 25.1–63.1%), irrespective of year. Nest circumference and day during the nesting season exerted the greatest influence on nest success. Additionally, from August 2006 to August 2008 we captured, marked, and released 271 hatchling alligators at Little Sandy National Wildlife Refuge, and recaptured an additional 192 hatchling alligators during this time. We estimated yearly apparent survival at 6.0% (95% CI = 2.0–14.6%) for hatchling alligators born in 2006 and 43.0% (95% CI = 28.4–57.8%) for those hatched in 2007. Variation in nest success and hatchling survival was likely attributed to fluctuating water levels and habitat management practices. Alligator harvest regulations need to account for variability in nest success and hatchling survival by including site-specific estimates of these metrics into harvest models. Failing to account for spatial and temporal variation in nest success and hatchling survival may result in unsustainable harvest and/or overharvest. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.