An Integrated Tiered Service Delivery Model (ITSDM) Based on Local CD4 Testing Demands Can Improve Turn-Around Times and Save Costs whilst Ensuring Accessible and Scalable CD4 Services across a National Programme

Background

The South African National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) responded to HIV treatment initiatives with two-tiered CD4 laboratory services in 2004. Increasing programmatic burden, as more patients access anti-retroviral therapy (ART), has demanded extending CD4 services to meet increasing clinical needs. The aim of this study was to review existing services and develop a service-model that integrated laboratory-based and point-of-care testing (POCT), to extend national coverage, improve local turn-around/(TAT) and contain programmatic costs.

Methods

NHLS Corporate Data Warehouse CD4 data, from 60–70 laboratories and 4756 referring health facilities was reviewed for referral laboratory workload, respective referring facility volumes and related TAT, from 2009–2012.

Results

An integrated tiered service delivery model (ITSDM) is proposed. Tier-1/POCT delivers CD4 testing at single health-clinics providing ART in hard-to-reach areas (<5 samples/day). Laboratory-based testing is extended with Tier-2/POC-Hubs (processing ≤30–40 CD4 samples/day), consolidating POCT across 8–10 health-clinics with other HIV-related testing and Tier-3/‘community’ laboratories, serving ≤40 health-clinics, processing ≤150 samples/day. Existing Tier-4/‘regional’ laboratories serve ≤100 facilities and process <350 samples/day; Tier-5 are high-volume ‘metro’/centralized laboratories (>350–1500 tests/day, serving ≥200 health-clinics). Tier-6 provides national support for standardisation, harmonization and quality across the organization.

Conclusion

The ITSDM offers improved local TAT by extending CD4 services into rural/remote areas with new Tier-3 or Tier-2/POC-Hub services installed in existing community laboratories, most with developed infrastructure. The advantage of lower laboratory CD4 costs and use of existing infrastructure enables subsidization of delivery of more expensive POC services, into hard-to-reach districts without reasonable access to a local CD4 laboratory. Full ITSDM implementation across 5 service tiers (as opposed to widespread implementation of POC testing to extend service) can facilitate sustainable ‘full service coverage’ across South Africa, and save>than R125 million in HIV/AIDS programmatic costs. ITSDM hierarchical parental-support also assures laboratory/POC management, equipment maintenance, quality control and on-going training between tiers.     

Cost of Treatment in a US Commercially Insured,HIV-1–Infected Population

Objective

Recent treatment patterns and cost data associated with HIV in the United States are limited. This study assessed first-line persistence and healthcare costs of HIV-1 in patients by treatment line and CD4 cell count.

Methods

MarketScan Commercial Claims and Encounters Database (2007–2011) and Lab Database (2007–2010) were used to construct two HIV-1 cohorts: 1) newly treated HIV-1–infected patients with ≥6 months'' continuous enrollment prior to first third-agent drug claim (Newly Treated Cohort) and 2) CD4 cell count test results (CD4 Measurements Cohort). All patients were ≥18 years old and without hepatitis co-infection. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to measure treatment switch rates. Generalized linear models (gamma distribution, log link) were used to compare healthcare costs by treatment line and CD4 cell count controlling for potential confounders.

Results

Newly treated patients (n = 8,617) had mean age of 41, 82% were male, and 20% had experienced AIDS-defining events at baseline. Over 20% of newly treated patients switched initial treatment regimen within 2 years. Average unadjusted (and covariate-adjusted) total healthcare cost/year was $33,674 ($28,861) for first-line, $39,191 ($35,805) for second-line, and $39,882 ($40,804) for third-line treatment. Covariate-adjusted costs of care on second- and third-line treatments were significantly more expensive than first-line treatment (24% [p<0.001] and 41% [p = 0.006] higher, respectively). The CD4 Measurements Cohort included 803 CD4 measurements (mean age 49, 76% male, 8% experienced an AIDS-defining event). Costs associated with CD4 measurements <100 cells/µL were 92% higher than those with >350 cells/µL (p<0.001). For higher CD4 cell counts, the majority of expenditures were for antiretrovirals (64% of total for CD4 >350 cells/µL).

Conclusions

Despite modern advances in antiretroviral therapy and medical care, direct medical costs of HIV-1–infected patients increase after treatment switch and with lower CD4 counts, consistent with previous costing studies.     

An Evaluation of HIV Elite Controller Definitions within a Large Seroconverter Cohort Collaboration

Background

Understanding the mechanisms underlying viral control is highly relevant to vaccine studies and elite control (EC) of HIV infection. Although numerous definitions of EC exist, it is not clear which, if any, best identify this rare phenotype.

Methods

We assessed a number of EC definitions used in the literature using CASCADE data of 25,692 HIV seroconverters. We estimated proportions maintaining EC of total ART-naïve follow-up time, and disease progression, comparing to non-EC. We also examined HIV-RNA and CD4 values and CD4 slope during EC and beyond (while ART naïve).

Results

Most definitions classify ∼1% as ECs with median HIV-RNA 43–903 copies/ml and median CD4>500 cells/mm³. Beyond EC status, median HIV-RNA levels remained low, although often detectable, and CD4 values high but with strong evidence of decline for all definitions. Median % ART-naïve time as EC was ≥92% although overlap between definitions was low. EC definitions with consecutive HIV-RNA measurements <75 copies/ml with follow-up≥ six months, or with 90% of measurements <400 copies/ml over ≥10 year follow-up preformed best overall. Individuals thus defined were less likely to progress to endpoint (hazard ratios ranged from 12.5–19.0 for non-ECs compared to ECs).

Conclusions

ECs are rare, less likely to progress to clinical disease, but may eventually lose control. We suggest definitions requiring individuals to have consecutive undetectable HIV-RNA measurements for ≥ six months or otherwise with >90% of measurements <400 copies/ml over ≥10 years be used to define this phenotype.     

Immuno-Virological Discordance and the Risk of Non-AIDS and AIDS Events in a Large Observational Cohort of HIV-Patients in Europe

Background

The impact of immunosuppression despite virological suppression (immuno-virological discordance, ID) on the risk of developing fatal and non-fatal AIDS/non-AIDS events is unclear and remains to be elucidated.

Methods

Patients in EuroSIDA starting at least 1 new antiretroviral drug with CD4<350 cells/µl and viral load (VL)>500 copies/mL were followed-up from the first day of VL< = 50 copies/ml until a new fatal/non-fatal non-AIDS/AIDS event. Considered non-AIDS events included non-AIDS malignancies, pancreatitis, severe liver disease with hepatic encephalopathy (>grade 3), cardio- and cerebrovascular events, and end-stage renal disease. Patients were classified over time according to whether current CD4 count was above (non-ID) or below (ID) baseline level. Relative rates (RR) of events were calculated for ID vs. non-ID using adjusted Poisson regression models.

Results

2,913 patients contributed 11,491 person-years for the analysis of non-AIDS. 241 pre-specified non-AIDS events (including 84 deaths) and 89 AIDS events (including 10 deaths) occurred. The RR of developing pre-specified non-AIDS events for ID vs. non-ID was 1.96 (95% CI 1.37–2.81, p<0.001) in unadjusted analysis and 1.43 (0.94–2.17, p = 0.095) after controlling for current CD4 count. ID was not associated with the risk of AIDS events (aRR 0.76, 95% CI 0.41–1.38, p = 0.361).

Conclusion

Compared to CD4 responders, patients with immuno-virological discordance may be at increased risk of developing non-AIDS events. Further studies are warranted to establish whether in patients with ID, strategies to directly modify CD4 count response may be needed besides the use of ART.     

Evaluating Total Lymphocyte Count as a Surrogate Marker for CD4 Cell Count in the Management of HIV-Infected Patients in Resource-Limited Settings: A Study from China

Objective

To evaluate the correlation of total lymphocyte count (TLC) and CD4 cell count and the suitability of TLC as a surrogate marker for CD4 cell count of HIV-infected patients in China.

Methods

Usefulness of TLC as a surrogate marker for a CD4 cell count <350 cells/mm³ for HIV-positive patients in China was evaluated by 977 pairs of TLC and CD4 cell count from 977 outpatients. The result was then validated by a literature review which was conducted on 9 relevant articles. Further investigation using the 977 pairs of TLC and CD4 cell count data was done to determine a TLC threshold for predicting a CD4 cell count <500 cells/mm³. Correlation and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis were performed for both CD4 cell counts, and the sensitivity and specificity were computed.

Results

Good correlation was noted between TLC and CD4 count (r = 0.60, 95% CI, 0.56–0.64). TLC obtained a relatively high diagnostic performance (area under ROC curve, 0.80) for predicting a CD4 cell count <350 cells/mm³, with a sensitivity of 0.65 (95% CI, 0.61–0.68) and a specificity of 0.80 (95% CI, 0.75–0.85) at the TLC threshold of 1570 cells/mm³. The literature review suggested that for a CD4 cell count <350 cells/mm³, the optimal TLC threshold was 1500 cells/mm³, which was similar to the figure presented in this observational study. As for predicting a CD4 cell count <500 cells/mm³, TLC obtained a high diagnostic performance (area under ROC curve, 0.82) as well with a sensitivity of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.67–0.73) and a specificity of 0.80 (95% CI, 0.73–0.87).

Conclusions

When considering the antiretroviral therapy for HIV-infected Chinese individuals, total lymphocyte count can be considered as an inexpensive and easily available surrogate marker for predicting two clinically important thresholds of CD4 count of 350 cells/mm³ and 500 cells/mm³.     

Delay in cART Initiation Results in Persistent Immune Dysregulation and Poor Recovery of T-Cell Phenotype Despite a Decade of Successful HIV Suppression

Background

Successful combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) increases levels of CD4+ T-cells, however this increase may not accurately reflect long-term immune recovery since T-cell dysregulation and loss of T-cell homeostasis often persist. We therefore assessed the impact of a decade of effective cART on immune regulation, T-cell homeostasis, and overall T-cell phenotype.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective study of 288 HIV+ cART-naïve patients initiating therapy. We identified 86 individuals who received cART for at least a decade, of which 44 consistently maintained undetectable plasma HIV-RNA levels throughout therapy. At baseline, participants were classified into three groups according to pre-treatment CD4+ T-cell counts: Group I (CD4<200 cells/mm³); Group II (CD4: 200–350 cells/mm³); Group III (CD4>350 cells/mm³). Outcomes of interest were: (1) CD4+ T-cell count restoration (CD4>532 cells/mm³); (2) normalization of CD4:CD8 T-cell ratio (1.2–3.3); (3) maintenance of CD3+ T-cell homeostasis (CD3: 65%–85% of peripheral lymphocytes); (4) normalization of the complete T-cell phenotype (TCP).

Results

Despite a decade of sustained successful cART, complete T-cell phenotype normalization only occurred in 16% of patients, most of whom had initiated therapy at high CD4+ T-cell counts (>350 cells/mm³). The TCP parameter that was the least restored among patients was the CD4:CD8 T-cell ratio.

Conclusions

Failure to normalize the complete T-cell phenotype was most apparent in patients who initiated cART with a CD4+ T-cell count <200 cells/mm³. The impact of this impaired T-cell phenotype on life-long immune function and potential comorbidities remains to be elucidated.     

Retention in Care and Outpatient Costs for Children Receiving Antiretroviral Therapy in Zambia: A Retrospective Cohort Analysis

Background

There are few published estimates of the cost of pediatric antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Africa. Our objective was to estimate the outpatient cost of providing ART to children remaining in care at six public sector clinics in Zambia during the first three years after ART initiation, stratified by service delivery site and time on treatment.

Methods

Data on resource utilization (drugs, diagnostics, outpatient visits, fixed costs) and treatment outcomes (in care, died, lost to follow up) were extracted from medical records for 1,334 children at six sites who initiated ART at <15 years of age between 2006 and 2011. Fixed and variable unit costs (reported in 2011 USD) were estimated from the provider’s perspective using site level data.

Results

Median age at ART initiation was 4.0 years; median CD4 percentage was 14%. One year after ART initiation, 73% of patients remained in care, ranging from 60% to 91% depending on site. The average annual outpatient cost per patient remaining in care was $209 (95% CI, $199–$219), ranging from $116 (95% CI, $107–$126) to $516 (95% CI, $499–$533) depending on site. Average annual costs decreased as time on treatment increased. Antiretroviral drugs were the largest component of all outpatient costs (>50%) at four sites. At the two remaining sites, outpatient visits and fixed costs together accounted for >50% of outpatient costs. The distribution of costs is slightly skewed, with median costs 3% to 13% lower than average costs during the first year after ART initiation depending on site.

Conclusions

Outpatient costs for children initiating ART in Zambia are low and comparable to reported outpatient costs for adults. Outpatient costs and retention in care vary widely by site, suggesting opportunities for efficiency gains. Taking advantage of such opportunities will help ensure that targets for pediatric treatment coverage can be met.     

DVT Surveillance Program in the ICU: Analysis of Cost-Effectiveness

Background

Venous Thrombo-embolism (VTE – Deep venous thrombosis (DVT) and/or pulmonary embolism (PE) – in traumatized patients causes significant morbidity and mortality. The current study evaluates the effectiveness of DVT surveillance in reducing PE, and performs a cost-effectiveness analysis.

Methods

All traumatized patients admitted to the adult ICU underwent twice weekly DVT surveillance by bilateral lower extremity venous Duplex examination (48-month surveillance period – SP). The rates of DVT and PE were recorded and compared to the rates observed in the 36-month pre-surveillance period (PSP). All patients in both periods received mechanical and pharmacologic prophylaxis unless contraindicated. Total costs – diagnostic, therapeutic and surveillance – for both periods were recorded and the incremental cost for each Quality Adjusted Life Year (QALY) gained was calculated.

Results

4234 patients were eligible (PSP – 1422 and SP – 2812). Rate of DVT in SP (2.8%) was significantly higher than in PSP (1.3%) – p<0.05, and rate of PE in SP (0.7%) was significantly lower than that in PSP (1.5%) – p<0.05. Logistic regression demonstrated that surveillance was an independent predictor of increased DVT detection (OR: 2.53 – CI: 1.462–4.378) and decreased PE incidence (OR: 0.487 – CI: 0.262–0.904). The incremental cost was $509,091/life saved in the base case, translating to $29,102/QALY gained. A sensitivity analysis over four of the parameters used in the model indicated that the incremental cost ranged from $18,661 to $48,821/QALY gained.

Conclusions

Surveillance of traumatized ICU patients increases DVT detection and reduces PE incidence. Costs in terms of QALY gained compares favorably with other interventions accepted by society.     

Predictors of CD4:CD8 Ratio Normalization and Its Effect on Health Outcomes in the Era of Combination Antiretroviral Therapy

Background

HIV leads to CD4:CD8 ratio inversion as immune dysregulation progresses. We examined the predictors of CD4:CD8 normalization after combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) and determined whether normalization is associated with reduced progression to AIDS-defining illnesses (ADI) and death.

Methods

A Canadian cohort of HIV-positive adults with CD4:CD8<1.2 prior to starting cART from 2000–2010 were analyzed. Predictors of (1) reaching a CD4:CD8 ≥1.2 on two separate follow-up visits >30 days apart, and (2) ADI and death from all causes were assessed using adjusted proportional hazards models.

Results

4206 patients were studied for a median of 2.77 years and 306 (7.2%) normalized their CD4:CD8 ratio. Factors associated with achieving a normal CD4:CD8 ratio were: baseline CD4+ T-cells >350 cells/mm³, baseline CD8+ T-cells <500 cells/mm³, time-updated HIV RNA suppression, and not reporting sex with other men as a risk factor. There were 213 ADIs and 214 deaths in 13476 person-years of follow-up. Achieving a normal CD4:CD8 ratio was not associated with time to ADI/death.

Conclusions

In our study, few individuals normalized their CD4:CD8 ratios within the first few years of initiating modern cART. This large study showed no additional short-term predictive value of the CD4:CD8 ratio for clinical outcomes after accounting for other risk factors including age and HIV RNA.     

Patient Satisfaction with HIV/AIDS Care and Treatment in the Decentralization of Services Delivery in Vietnam

Objective

We evaluated the patient satisfaction with HIV/AIDS care and treatment and its determinants across levels of health service administration in Vietnam.

Methods

We interviewed 1016 patients at 7 hospitals and health centers in three epicenters, including Hanoi, Hai Phong, and Ho Chi Minh City. The Satisfaction with HIV/AIDS Treatment Interview Scale (SATIS) was developed, and 3 dimensions were constructed using factor analysis, namely “Quality and Convenience”; “Availability and Responsiveness”; and “Competence of health care workers”.

Results

In a band score of (0; 10), the mean scores of all domains were large; it was the highest in “Competence of health workers” (9.34±0.84), and the lowest in “Quality and Convenience” (9.03±1.04). The percentages of respondents completely satisfied with overall service quality and treatment outcomes were 42.4% and 18.8%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, factors related to higher satisfaction included female sex, older age, and living with spouses or partners. Meanwhile, lower satisfaction was found among patients who were attending provincial and district clinics; in the richest group; had higher CD4 count; and drug users.

Conclusion

This study highlights the importance of improving the quality of HIV/AIDS services at the provincial and district clinics. Potential strategies include capacity building for health workers, integrative service delivery, engagements of family members in treatment supports, and additional attention and comprehensive care for drug users with HIV/AIDS.     

Expanding ART for treatment and prevention of HIV in South Africa: estimated cost and cost-effectiveness 2011-2050

Background

Antiretroviral Treatment (ART) significantly reduces HIV transmission. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of the impact of expanded ART in South Africa.

Methods

We model a best case scenario of 90% annual HIV testing coverage in adults 15–49 years old and four ART eligibility scenarios: CD4 count <200 cells/mm³ (current practice), CD4 count <350, CD4 count <500, all CD4 levels. 2011–2050 outcomes include deaths, disability adjusted life years (DALYs), HIV infections, cost, and cost per DALY averted. Service and ART costs reflect South African data and international generic prices. ART reduces transmission by 92%. We conducted sensitivity analyses.

Results

Expanding ART to CD4 count <350 cells/mm³ prevents an estimated 265,000 (17%) and 1.3 million (15%) new HIV infections over 5 and 40 years, respectively. Cumulative deaths decline 15%, from 12.5 to 10.6 million; DALYs by 14% from 109 to 93 million over 40 years. Costs drop $504 million over 5 years and $3.9 billion over 40 years with breakeven by 2013. Compared with the current scenario, expanding to <500 prevents an additional 585,000 and 3 million new HIV infections over 5 and 40 years, respectively. Expanding to all CD4 levels decreases HIV infections by 3.3 million (45%) and costs by $10 billion over 40 years, with breakeven by 2023. By 2050, using higher ART and monitoring costs, all CD4 levels saves $0.6 billion versus current; other ART scenarios cost $9–194 per DALY averted. If ART reduces transmission by 99%, savings from all CD4 levels reach $17.5 billion. Sensitivity analyses suggest that poor retention and predominant acute phase transmission reduce DALYs averted by 26% and savings by 7%.

Conclusion

Increasing the provision of ART to <350 cells/mm3 may significantly reduce costs while reducing the HIV burden. Feasibility including HIV testing and ART uptake, retention, and adherence should be evaluated.     

CD4 Cell Count and the Risk of AIDS or Death in HIV-Infected Adults on Combination Antiretroviral Therapy with a Suppressed Viral Load: A Longitudinal Cohort Study from COHERE

Background

Most adults infected with HIV achieve viral suppression within a year of starting combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). It is important to understand the risk of AIDS events or death for patients with a suppressed viral load.

Methods and Findings

Using data from the Collaboration of Observational HIV Epidemiological Research Europe (2010 merger), we assessed the risk of a new AIDS-defining event or death in successfully treated patients. We accumulated episodes of viral suppression for each patient while on cART, each episode beginning with the second of two consecutive plasma viral load measurements <50 copies/µl and ending with either a measurement >500 copies/µl, the first of two consecutive measurements between 50–500 copies/µl, cART interruption or administrative censoring. We used stratified multivariate Cox models to estimate the association between time updated CD4 cell count and a new AIDS event or death or death alone. 75,336 patients contributed 104,265 suppression episodes and were suppressed while on cART for a median 2.7 years. The mortality rate was 4.8 per 1,000 years of viral suppression. A higher CD4 cell count was always associated with a reduced risk of a new AIDS event or death; with a hazard ratio per 100 cells/µl (95% CI) of: 0.35 (0.30–0.40) for counts <200 cells/µl, 0.81 (0.71–0.92) for counts 200 to <350 cells/µl, 0.74 (0.66–0.83) for counts 350 to <500 cells/µl, and 0.96 (0.92–0.99) for counts ≥500 cells/µl. A higher CD4 cell count became even more beneficial over time for patients with CD4 cell counts <200 cells/µl.

Conclusions

Despite the low mortality rate, the risk of a new AIDS event or death follows a CD4 cell count gradient in patients with viral suppression. A higher CD4 cell count was associated with the greatest benefit for patients with a CD4 cell count <200 cells/µl but still some slight benefit for those with a CD4 cell count ≥500 cells/µl. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Fibrocytes are associated with vascular and parenchymal remodelling in patients with obliterative bronchiolitis

Background

The aim of the present study was to explore the occurrence of fibrocytes in tissue and to investigate whether the appearance of fibrocytes may be linked to structural changes of the parenchyme and vasculature in the lungs of patients with obliterative bronchiolitis (OB) following lung or bone marrow transplantation.

Methods

Identification of parenchyme, vasculature, and fibrocytes was done by histological methods in lung tissue from bone marrow or lung-transplanted patients with obliterative bronchiolitis, and from controls.

Results

The transplanted patients had significantly higher amounts of tissue in the alveolar parenchyme (46.5 ± 17.6%) than the controls (21.7 ± 7.6%) (p < 0.05). The patients also had significantly increased numbers of fibrocytes identified by CXCR4/prolyl4-hydroxylase, CD45R0/prolyl4-hydroxylase, and CD34/prolyl4-hydroxylase compared to the controls (p < 0.01). There was a correlation between the number of fibrocytes and the area of alveolar parenchyma; CXCR4/prolyl 4-hydroxylase (p < 0.01), CD45R0/prolyl 4-hydroxylase (p < 0.05) and CD34/prolyl 4-hydroxylase (p < 0.05). In the pulmonary vessels, there was an increase in the endothelial layer in patients (0.31 ± 0.13%) relative to the controls (0.037 ± 0.02%) (p < 0.01). There was a significant correlation between the number of fibrocytes and the total area of the endothelial layer CXCR4/prolyl 4-hydroxylase (p < 0.001), CD45R0/prolyl 4-hydroxylase (p < 0.001) and CD34/prolyl 4-hydroxylase (p < 0.01). The percent areas of the lumen of the vessels were significant (p < 0.001) enlarged in the patient with OB compared to the controls. There was also a correlation between total area of the lumen and number of fibrocytes, CXCR4/prolyl 4-hydroxylase (p < 0.01), CD45R0/prolyl 4-hydroxylase (p < 0.001) and CD34/prolyl 4-hydroxylase (p < 0.01).

Conclusion

Our results indicate that fibrocytes are associated with pathological remodelling processes in patients with OB and that tissue fibrocytes might be a useful biomarker in these processes.     

Reduction of Maternal Mortality with Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy in a Large Cohort of HIV-Infected Pregnant Women in Malawi and Mozambique

Background

HIV infection is a major contributor to maternal mortality in resource-limited settings. The Drug Resource Enhancement Against AIDS and Malnutrition Programme has been promoting HAART use during pregnancy and postpartum for Prevention-of-mother-to-child-HIV transmission (PMTCT) irrespective of maternal CD4 cell counts since 2002.

Methods

Records for all HIV+ pregnancies followed in Mozambique and Malawi from 6/2002 to 6/2010 were reviewed. The cohort was comprised by pregnancies where women were referred for PMTCT and started HAART during prenatal care (n = 8172, group 1) and pregnancies where women were referred on established HAART (n = 1978, group 2).

Results

10,150 pregnancies were followed. Median (IQR) baseline values were age 26 years (IQR:23–30), CD4 count 392 cells/mm³ (IQR:258–563), Viral Load log₁₀ 3.9 (IQR:3.2–4.4), BMI 23.4 (IQR:21.5–25.7), Hemoglobin 10.0 (IQR: 9.0–11.0). 101 maternal deaths (0.99%) occurred during pregnancy to 6 weeks postpartum: 87 (1.1%) in group 1 and 14 (0.7%) in group 2. Mortality was 1.3% in women with <than 350 CD4 cells/mm³ and 0.7% in women with greater than 350 CD4s cells/mm³ [OR = 1.9 (CL 1.3–2.9) p = 0.001]. Mortality was higher in patients with shorter antenatal HAART: 22/991 (2.2%) if less than 30 days and 79/9159 (0.9%) if 31 days or greater [OR = 2.6 (CL 1.6–4.2) p<0.001]. By multivariate analysis, shorter antenatal HAART (p<0.001), baseline values for CD4 cell count (p = 0.012), hemoglobin (p = 0.02), and BMI (p<0.001) were associated with mortality. Four years later, survival was 92% for women with shorter antenatal HAART and 98% for women on established therapy prior to pregnancy, p = 0.001.

Conclusions

Antiretrovirals for PMTCT purposes have significant impact on maternal mortality as do CD4 counts and nutritional status. In resource-limited settings, PMTCT programs should provide universal HAART to all HIV+ pregnant women given its impact in prevention of maternal death.     

Cytomegalovirus Viral Load Kinetics in Patients with HIV/AIDS Admitted to a Medical Intensive Care Unit: A Case for Pre-Emptive Therapy

Background

Cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection is associated with severe diseases in immunosuppressed patients; however, there is a lack of data for pre-emptive therapy in patients with HIV/AIDS.

Method

This was a retrospective study, which enrolled patients diagnosed with HIV/AIDS (CD4<200 cells/μl), who had detectable CMV viral load (VL) during their stay in an adult medical intensive care unit between 2009–2012.

Results

After screening 82 patients’ records, 41 patients met the enrolment criteria. Their median age was 37 (interquartile range [IQR]: 31–46), and median CD4 count was 29 cells/μl (IQR: 5–55). Sixteen patients (39%) had serial measurements of CMV VL before treatment with ganciclovir. Patients whose baseline CMV VL values were between 1,000–3,000 copies/ml had significantly higher values (median of 14,650 copies/ml) on follow-up testing done 4–12 days later. Those with undetectable VLs at baseline testing had detectable VLs (median of 1,590 copies/ml) mostly within 20 days of follow-up testing. Patients who had VLs >1,000 copies/ml at baseline testing had significantly higher mortality compared to those who had <1,000 copies/ml {hazard ratio of 3.46, p = 0.003 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.55–7.71]}. Analysis of the highest CMV VL per patient showed that patients who had VLs of >5,100 copies/ml and did not receive ganciclovir had 100% mortality compared to 58% mortality in those who received ganciclovir at VLs of >5,100 copies/ml, 50% mortality in those who were not treated and had low VLs of <5,100 copies/ml, and 44% mortality in those who had ganciclovir treatment at VLs of <5,100 copies/ml (p = 0.084, 0.046, 0.037, respectively).

Conclusion

This study showed a significantly increased mortality in patients with HIV/AIDS who had high CMV VLs, and suggests that a threshold value of 1,000 copies/ml may be appropriate for pre-emptive treatment in this group.     

Risk Factors for Late-Stage HIV Disease Presentation at Initial HIV Diagnosis in Durban,South Africa

Background

After observing persistently low CD4 counts at initial HIV diagnosis in South Africa, we sought to determine risk factors for late-stage HIV disease presentation among adults.

Methods

We surveyed adults prior to HIV testing at four outpatient clinics in Durban from August 2010 to November 2011. All HIV-infected adults were offered CD4 testing, and late-stage HIV disease was defined as a CD4 count <100 cells/mm³. We used multivariate regression models to determine the effects of sex, emotional health, social support, distance from clinic, employment, perceived barriers to receiving healthcare, and foregoing healthcare to use money for food, clothing, or housing (“competing needs to healthcare”) on presentation with late-stage HIV disease.

Results

Among 3,669 adults screened, 830 were enrolled, newly-diagnosed with HIV and obtained a CD4 result. Among those, 279 (33.6%) presented with late-stage HIV disease. In multivariate analyses, participants who lived ≥5 kilometers from the test site [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 2.8, 95% CI 1.7–4.7], reported competing needs to healthcare (AOR 1.7, 95% CI 1.2–2.4), were male (AOR 1.7, 95% CI 1.2–2.3), worked outside the home (AOR 1.5, 95% CI 1.1–2.1), perceived health service delivery barriers (AOR 1.5, 95% CI 1.1–2.1), and/or had poor emotional health (AOR 1.4, 95% CI 1.0–1.9) had higher odds of late-stage HIV disease presentation.

Conclusions

Independent risk factors for late-stage HIV disease presentation were from diverse domains, including geographic, economic, demographic, social, and psychosocial. These findings can inform various interventions, such as mobile testing or financial assistance, to reduce the risk of presentation with late-stage HIV disease.     

Among Patients with Sustained Viral Suppression in a Resource-Limited Setting,CD4 Gains Are Continuous Although Gender-Based Differences Occur

Introduction

There is conflicting data on long-term CD4 immune recovery after combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited settings. Virologic suppression is rarely documented in cohorts from sub-Saharan Africa so objective evidence of adherence is biologically unsubstantiated. We sought to investigate long-term patterns of immune recovery in Ugandan patients on ART with sustained viral suppression.

Methods

A prospective cohort of patients starting ART between April, 2004 and April, 2005 at the Infectious Diseases Institute with sustained viral suppression (viral load ≤400 copies/ml at month 6 and 12) while on first-line ART. Propensity scores were used to adjust for treatment allocation (nevirapine or efavirenz) at ART initiation. Data were analyzed using Kaplan Meier methods and cross-sectional time series regression.

Results

Three hundred and fifty-six patients were included in the analysis.71.6% were female, 87% in WHO stage 3 or 4, median age was 37 years, (IQR:32–43), and median CD4 count was 108 cells/µL, (IQR:35–174) at ART start. At multivariable analysis, lower immune recovery (measured by change in CD4 from ART start at each time interval) was associated with male-gender (-59, 95% CI: 90, -28, P<0.001), baseline CD4 count of 101–200 cells/µL (-35, 95% CI: 62, -9, P=0.009) and >200 (-64, 95% CI: 101, -26, P=0.001), and use of AZT at baseline (-47, 95% CI: -74, -20, P=0.001). Median time to reach >400 cells/µL was longer in males (197.4 weeks, IQR:119.9–312.0), compared to females (144.7 weeks, IQR:96.6–219.7, P<0.001). The cumulative probability of attaining CD4 >400 cells/µL over 7 years was higher in females compared to males (P<0.001).

Conclusions

There was long-term, continuous, immunologic recovery up to 7 years after ART initiation in an urban Ugandan cohort. Virologically suppressed women had better sustained immune recovery than men. Men take longer to immune reconstitute and have a lower probability of reaching a CD4 cell count >400 cells/µL. The biologic mechanisms of these gender differences need further exploration.     

Association between Health Systems Performance and Treatment Outcomes in Patients Co-Infected with MDR-TB and HIV in KwaZulu-Natal,South Africa: Implications for TB Programmes

Objective

To improve the treatment of MDR-TB and HIV co-infected patients, we investigated the relationship between health system performance and patient treatment outcomes at 4 decentralised MDR-TB sites.

Methods

In this mixed methods case study which included prospective comparative data, we measured health system performance using a framework of domains comprising key health service components. Using Pearson Product Moment Correlation coefficients we quantified the direction and magnitude of the association between health system performance and MDR-TB treatment outcomes. Qualitative data from participant observation and interviews analysed using systematic text condensation (STC) complemented our quantitative findings.

Findings

We found significant differences in treatment outcomes across the sites with successful outcomes varying from 72% at Site 1 to 52% at Site 4 (p<0.01). Health systems performance scores also varied considerably across the sites. Our findings suggest there is a correlation between treatment outcomes and overall health system performance which is significant (r = 0.99, p<0.01), with Site 1 having the highest number of successful treatment outcomes and the highest health system performance. Although the ‘integration’ domain, which measured integration of MDR-TB services into existing services appeared to have the strongest association with successful treatment outcomes (r = 0.99, p<0.01), qualitative data indicated that the ‘context’ domain influenced the other domains.

Conclusion

We suggest that there is an association between treatment outcomes and health system performance. The chance of treatment success is greater if decentralised MDR-TB services are integrated into existing services. To optimise successful treatment outcomes, regular monitoring and support are needed at a district, facility and individual level to ensure the local context is supportive of new programmes and implementation is according to guidelines.     

Long-Term Survival in HIV Positive Patients with up to 15 Years of Antiretroviral Therapy

Background

Life expectancy has increased for newly diagnosed HIV patients since the inception of combination antiretroviral treatment (cART), but there remains a need to better understand the characteristics of long-term survival in HIV-positive patients. We examined long-term survival in HIV-positive patients receiving cART in the Australian HIV Observational Database (AHOD), to describe changes in mortality compared to the general population and to develop longer-term survival models.

Methods

Data were examined from 2,675 HIV-positive participants in AHOD who started cART. Standardised mortality ratios (SMR) were calculated by age, sex and calendar year across prognostic characteristics using Australian Bureau of Statistics national data as reference. SMRs were examined by years of duration of cART by CD4 and similarly by viral load. Survival was analysed using Cox-proportional hazards and parametric survival models.

Results

The overall SMR for all-cause mortality was 3.5 (95% CI: 3.0–4.0). SMRs by CD4 count were 8.6 (95% CI: 7.2–10.2) for CD4<350 cells/µl; 2.1 (95% CI: 1.5–2.9) for CD4 = 350–499 cells/µl; and 1.5 (95% CI: 1.1–2.0) for CD4≥500 cells/µl. SMRs for patients with CD4 counts <350 cells/µL were much higher than for patients with higher CD4 counts across all durations of cART. SMRs for patients with viral loads greater than 400 copies/ml were much higher across all durations of cART. Multivariate models demonstrated improved survival associated with increased recent CD4, reduced recent viral load, younger patients, absence of HBVsAg-positive ever, year of HIV diagnosis and incidence of ADI. Parametric models showed a fairly constant mortality risk by year of cART up to 15 years of treatment.

Conclusion

Observed mortality remained fairly constant by duration of cART and was modelled accurately by accepted prognostic factors. These rates did not vary much by duration of treatment. Changes in mortality with age were similar to those in the Australian general population.     

Treatment Initiation,Program Attrition and Patient Treatment Outcomes Associated with Scale-Up and Decentralization of HIV Care in Rural Malawi

Objective

To describe patient antiretroviral therapy (cART) outcomes associated with intensive decentralization of services in a rural HIV program in Malawi.

Methods

Longitudinal analysis of data from HIV-infected patients starting cART between August 2001 and December 2008 and of a cross-sectional immunovirological assessment conducted 12 (±2) months after therapy start. One-year mortality, lost to follow-up, and attrition (deaths and lost to follow-up) rates were estimated with exact Poisson 95% confidence intervals (CI) by type of care delivery and year of initiation. Association of virological suppression (<50 copies/mL) and immunological success (CD4 gain ≥100 cells/µL), with type of care was investigated using multiple logistic regression.

Results

During the study period, 4322 cART patients received centralized care and 11,090 decentralized care. At therapy start, patients treated in decentralized health facilities had higher median CD4 count levels (167 vs. 130 cell/µL, P<0.0001) than other patients. Two years after cART start, program attrition was lower in decentralized than centralized facilities (9.9 per 100 person-years, 95% CI: 9.5–10.4 vs. 20.8 per 100 person-years, 95% CI: 19.7–22.0). One year after treatment start, differences in immunological success (adjusted OR = 1.23, 95% CI: 0.83–1.83), and viral suppression (adjusted OR = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.56–1.14) between patients followed at centralized and decentralized facilities were not statistically significant.

Conclusions

In rural Malawi, 1- and 2-year program attrition was lower in decentralized than in centralized health facilities and no statistically significant differences in one-year immunovirological outcomes were observed between the two health care levels. Longer follow-up is needed to confirm these results.