Influenza Forecasting in Human Populations: A Scoping Review

Forecasts of influenza activity in human populations could help guide key preparedness tasks. We conducted a scoping review to characterize these methodological approaches and identify research gaps. Adapting the PRISMA methodology for systematic reviews, we searched PubMed, CINAHL, Project Euclid, and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews for publications in English since January 1, 2000 using the terms “influenza AND (forecast* OR predict*)”, excluding studies that did not validate forecasts against independent data or incorporate influenza-related surveillance data from the season or pandemic for which the forecasts were applied. We included 35 publications describing population-based (N = 27), medical facility-based (N = 4), and regional or global pandemic spread (N = 4) forecasts. They included areas of North America (N = 15), Europe (N = 14), and/or Asia-Pacific region (N = 4), or had global scope (N = 3). Forecasting models were statistical (N = 18) or epidemiological (N = 17). Five studies used data assimilation methods to update forecasts with new surveillance data. Models used virological (N = 14), syndromic (N = 13), meteorological (N = 6), internet search query (N = 4), and/or other surveillance data as inputs. Forecasting outcomes and validation metrics varied widely. Two studies compared distinct modeling approaches using common data, 2 assessed model calibration, and 1 systematically incorporated expert input. Of the 17 studies using epidemiological models, 8 included sensitivity analysis. This review suggests need for use of good practices in influenza forecasting (e.g., sensitivity analysis); direct comparisons of diverse approaches; assessment of model calibration; integration of subjective expert input; operational research in pilot, real-world applications; and improved mutual understanding among modelers and public health officials.     

Migration,Foraging, and Residency Patterns for Northern Gulf Loggerheads: Implications of Local Threats and International Movements

Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGoM) loggerheads (Caretta caretta) make up one of the smallest subpopulations of this threatened species and have declining nest numbers. We used satellite telemetry and a switching state-space model to identify distinct foraging areas used by 59 NGoM loggerheads tagged during 2010–2013. We tagged turtles after nesting at three sites, 1 in Alabama (Gulf Shores; n = 37) and 2 in Florida (St. Joseph Peninsula; n = 20 and Eglin Air Force Base; n = 2). Peak migration time was 22 July to 9 August during which >40% of turtles were in migration mode; the mean post-nesting migration period was 23.0 d (±13.8 d SD). After displacement from nesting beaches, 44 turtles traveled to foraging sites where they remained resident throughout tracking durations. Selected foraging locations were variable distances from tagging sites, and in 5 geographic regions; no turtles selected foraging sites outside the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). Foraging sites delineated using 50% kernel density estimation were located a mean distance of 47.6 km from land and in water with mean depth of −32.5 m; other foraging sites, delineated using minimum convex polygons, were located a mean distance of 43.0 km from land and in water with a mean depth of −24.9 m. Foraging sites overlapped with known trawling activities, oil and gas extraction activities, and the footprint of surface oiling during the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill (n = 10). Our results highlight the year-round use of habitats in the GoM by loggerheads that nest in the NGoM. Our findings indicate that protection of females in this subpopulation requires both international collaborations and management of threats that spatially overlap with distinct foraging habitats.     

Movements and Habitat-Use of Loggerhead Sea Turtles in the Northern Gulf of Mexico during the Reproductive Period

Nesting strategies and use of important in-water habitats for far-ranging marine turtles can be determined using satellite telemetry. Because of a lack of information on habitat-use by marine turtles in the northern Gulf of Mexico, we used satellite transmitters in 2010 through 2012 to track movements of 39 adult female breeding loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) tagged on nesting beaches at three sites in Florida and Alabama. During the nesting season, recaptured turtles emerged to nest 1 to 5 times, with mean distance between emergences of 27.5 km; however, several turtles nested on beaches separated by ∼250 km within a single season. Mean total distances traveled throughout inter-nesting periods for all turtles was 1422.0±930.8 km. In-water inter-nesting sites, delineated using 50% kernel density estimation (KDE), were located a mean distance of 33.0 km from land, in water with mean depth of −31.6 m; other in-water inter-nesting sites, delineated using minimum convex polygon (MCP) approach, were located a mean 13.8 km from land and in water with a mean depth of −15.8 m. Mean size of in-water inter-nesting habitats were 61.9 km² (50% KDEs, n = 10) and 741.4 km² (MCPs, n = 30); these areas overlapped significantly with trawling and oil and gas extraction activities. Abundance estimates for this nesting subpopulation may be inaccurate in light of how much spread there is between nests of the same individual. Further, our results also have consequences for critical habitat designations for northern Gulf loggerheads, as protection of one nesting beach would not encompass the entire range used by turtles during breeding seasons.     

Plastic Pollution in the World's Oceans: More than 5 Trillion Plastic Pieces Weighing over 250,000 Tons Afloat at Sea

Plastic pollution is ubiquitous throughout the marine environment, yet estimates of the global abundance and weight of floating plastics have lacked data, particularly from the Southern Hemisphere and remote regions. Here we report an estimate of the total number of plastic particles and their weight floating in the world''s oceans from 24 expeditions (2007–2013) across all five sub-tropical gyres, costal Australia, Bay of Bengal and the Mediterranean Sea conducting surface net tows (N = 680) and visual survey transects of large plastic debris (N = 891). Using an oceanographic model of floating debris dispersal calibrated by our data, and correcting for wind-driven vertical mixing, we estimate a minimum of 5.25 trillion particles weighing 268,940 tons. When comparing between four size classes, two microplastic <4.75 mm and meso- and macroplastic >4.75 mm, a tremendous loss of microplastics is observed from the sea surface compared to expected rates of fragmentation, suggesting there are mechanisms at play that remove <4.75 mm plastic particles from the ocean surface.     

Quality of Life and Costs in Parkinson's Disease: A Cross Sectional Study in Hungary

Background

Patient reported outcomes and costs of illness are useful to capture some of the multiple effects of a disease and its treatments. Our aim was to assess quality of life (QoL) and costs of Parkinson''s disease (PD) in Hungary, and to analyze their associations.

Methods

A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was conducted in one neurology university clinic. Clinical characteristics, PD related resource utilizations and productivity loss in the past 12 months were recorded; the Hoehn&Yahr (HY) scale, PDQ-39 and EQ-5D questionnaires were applied. Cost calculation was performed from the societal perspective.

Results

110 patients (34.5% female) were involved with mean age of 63.3 (SD = 11.3) and disease duration of 8.2 (SD = 5.8) years. PDQ-39 summary score was 48.1 (SD = 13.4). The average EQ-5D score was 0.59 (SD = 0.28), and was significantly lower than the population norm in age-groups 45–74. The correlation was significant between EQ-5D and PDQ-39 (−0.47, p = 0.000), the HY scale and EQ-5D (−0.3416, p = 0.0008) and PDQ-39 (0.3419, p = 0.0006) scores. The total mean cost was €6030.2 (SD = 6163.0)/patient/year (direct medical 35.7%, direct non-medical 29.4%, indirect cost 34.9%). A one year increase in disease duration and 0.1 decrease of the EQ-5D utility score increase the yearly costs by 8 to 10%, and 7.8%, respectively. The effect of the PDQ-39 score on total cost was not significant.

Conclusions

Disease severity and public health importance of PD are clearly demonstrated by the magnitude of QoL loss. PD-related costs are substantial, but are much lower in Hungary than in Western European countries. Disease duration and EQ-5D score are significant proxy of costs.     

Reduced Fetal Telomere Length in Gestational Diabetes

Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is an important complication of pregnancy that poses significant threats to women and their offspring. Telomere length shortens as cellular damage increases and is associated with metabolic diseases. Telomere length in fetal leucocytes was determined in 82 infants of women with GDM (N = 82) and 65 normal pregnant women (N = 65). Women with preeclampsia (N = 45) and gestational hypertension (N = 23) were also studied. In the GDM group, telomere length was significantly shorter than normal pregnancy (P = 0.028), but there were no significant differences in fetal telomere length between preeclampsia and normal pregnancy (P = 0.841) and between gestational hypertension and normal pregnancy (P = 0.561). Regression analysis revealed that fetal telomere length was significantly associated with intrauterine exposure to GDM (P = 0.027 after adjustment for maternal age, gestational age at delivery, birth weight and fetal gender). Shortened telomere length may increase the risk of metabolic diseases in adulthood of GDM offspring.     

Evaluation of Epidemiological Cut-Off Values Indicates that Biocide Resistant Subpopulations Are Uncommon in Natural Isolates of Clinically-Relevant Microorganisms

To date there are no clear criteria to determine whether a microbe is susceptible to biocides or not. As a starting point for distinguishing between wild-type and resistant organisms, we set out to determine the minimal inhibitory concentration (MIC) and minimal bactericidal concentration (MBC) distributions for four common biocides; triclosan, benzalkonium chloride, chlorhexidine and sodium hypochlorite for 3319 clinical isolates, with a particular focus on Staphylococcus aureus (N = 1635) and Salmonella spp. (N = 901) but also including Escherichia coli (N = 368), Candida albicans (N = 200), Klebsiella pneumoniae (N = 60), Enterobacter spp. (N = 54), Enterococcus faecium (N = 53), and Enterococcus faecalis (N = 56). From these data epidemiological cut-off values (ECOFFs) are proposed. As would be expected, MBCs were higher than MICs for all biocides. In most cases both values followed a normal distribution. Bimodal distributions, indicating the existence of biocide resistant subpopulations were observed for Enterobacter chlorhexidine susceptibility (both MICs and MBCs) and the susceptibility to triclosan of Enterobacter (MBC), E. coli (MBC and MIC) and S. aureus (MBC and MIC). There is a concern on the potential selection of antibiotic resistance by biocides. Our results indicate however that resistance to biocides and, hence any potential association with antibiotic resistance, is uncommon in natural populations of clinically relevant microorganisms.     

Relationship of Circulating Soluble Urokinase Plasminogen Activator Receptor (suPAR) Levels to Disease Control in Asthma and Asthmatic Pregnancy

Asthma has a high burden of morbidity if not controlled and may frequently complicate pregnancy, posing a risk for pregnancy outcomes. Elevated plasma level of the inflammatory biomarker soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) is related to a worse prognosis in many conditions such as infectious, autoimmune, or pregnancy-related diseases; however the value of suPAR in asthma and asthmatic pregnancy is unknown. The present study aimed to investigate the suPAR, CRP and IL-6 levels in asthma (asthmatic non-pregnant, ANP; N = 38; female N = 27) and asthmatic pregnancy (AP; N = 15), compared to healthy non-pregnant controls (HNP; N = 29; female N = 19) and to healthy pregnant women (HP; N = 58). The relationship between suPAR levels and asthma control was also evaluated. The diagnostic efficacy of suPAR in asthma control was analyzed using ROC analysis. IL-6 and CRP levels were comparable in all study groups. Circulating suPAR levels were lower in HP and AP than in HNP and ANP subjects, respectively (2.01 [1.81–2.38] and 2.39 [2.07–2.69] vs. 2.60 [1.82–3.49] and 2.84 [2.33–3.72] ng/mL, respectively, p = 0.0001). suPAR and airway resistance correlated in ANP (r = 0.47, p = 0.004). ROC analysis of suPAR values in ANP patients with PEF above and below 80% yielded an AUC of 0.75 (95% CI: 0.57–0.92, p = 0.023) and with ACT total score above and below 20 an AUC of 0.80 (95% CI: 0.64–0.95, p = 0.006). The cut-off value of suPAR to discriminate between controlled and not controlled AP and ANP was 4.04 ng/mL. In conclusion, suPAR may help the objective assessment of asthma control, since it correlates with airway resistance and has good sensitivity in the detection of impaired asthma control. Decrease in circulating suPAR levels detected both in healthy and asthmatic pregnant women presumably represents pregnancy induced immune tolerance.     

Chewing Betel Quid and the Risk of Metabolic Disease,Cardiovascular Disease,and All-Cause Mortality: A Meta-Analysis

Background

Betel nut (Areca nut) is the fruit of the Areca catechu tree. Approximately 700 million individuals regularly chew betel nut (or betel quid) worldwide and it is a known risk factor for oral cancer and esophageal cancer. We performed a meta-analysis to assess the influence of chewing betel quid on metabolic diseases, cardiovascular disease, and all-cause mortality.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We searched Medline, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, and Science Direct for pertinent articles (including the references) published between 1951 and 2013. The adjusted relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval were calculated using the random effect model. Sex was used as an independent category for comparison.

Results

Of 580 potentially relevant studies, 17 studies from Asia (5 cohort studies and 12 case-control studies) covering 388,134 subjects (range: 94 to 97,244) were selected. Seven studies (N = 121,585) showed significant dose-response relationships between betel quid consumption and the risk of events. According to pooled analysis, the adjusted RR of betel quid chewers vs. non-chewers was 1.47 (P<0.001) for obesity (N = 30,623), 1.51 (P = 0.01) for metabolic syndrome (N = 23,291), 1.47 (P<0.001) for diabetes (N = 51,412), 1.45 (P = 0.06) for hypertension (N = 89,051), 1.2 (P = 0.02) for cardiovascular disease (N = 201,488), and 1.21 (P = 0.02) for all-cause mortality (N = 179,582).

Conclusion/Significance

Betel quid chewing is associated with an increased risk of metabolic disease, cardiovascular disease, and all-cause mortality. Thus, in addition to preventing oral cancer, stopping betel quid use could be a valuable public health measure for metabolic diseases that are showing a rapid increase in South-East Asia and the Western Pacific.     

DCM-Related Tropomyosin Mutants E40K/E54K Over-Inhibit the Actomyosin Interaction and Lead to a Decrease in the Number of Cycling Cross-Bridges

Two DCM mutants (E40K and E54K) of tropomyosin (Tm) were examined using the thin-filament extraction/reconstitu­tion technique. The effects of the Ca²⁺, ATP, phos­phate (Pi), and ADP concentrations on isometric tension and its transients were studied at 25°C, and the results were com­pared to those for the WT protein. Our results indicate that both E40K and E54K have a significantly lower T _HC (high Ca²⁺ ten­sion at pCa 4.66) (E40K: 1.21±0.06 T _a, ±SEM, N = 34; E54K: 1.24±0.07 T _a, N = 28), a significantly lower T _LC (low- Ca²⁺ tension at pCa 7.0) (E40K: 0.07±0.02 T _a, N = 34; E54K: 0.06±0.02 T _a, N = 28), and a significantly lower T _act (Ca²⁺ activatable tension) (T _act = T _HC–T_LC, E40K: 1.15±0.08 T _a, N = 34; E54K: 1.18±0.06 T _a, N = 28) than WT (T _HC = 1.53±0.07 T _a, T _LC = 0.12±0.01 T _a, T _act = 1.40±0.07 T _a, N = 25). All tensions were normalized to T _a ( = 13.9±0.8 kPa, N = 57), the ten­sion of actin-filament reconstituted cardiac fibers (myocardium) under the standard activating conditions. The Ca²⁺ sensitivity (pCa₅₀) of E40K (5.23±0.02, N = 34) and E54K (5.24±0.03, N = 28) was similar to that of the WT protein (5.26±0.03, N = 25). The cooper­a­tivity increased significantly in E54K (3.73±0.25, N = 28) compared to WT (2.80±0.17, N = 25). Seven kinetic constants were deduced using sinusoidal analysis at pCa 4.66. These results enabled us to calculate the cross-bridge distribution in the strongly attached states, and thereby deduce the force/cross-bridge. The results indicate that the force/cross-bridge is ∼15% less in E54K than WT, but remains similar to that of the WT protein in the case of E40K. We conclude that over-inhibition of the actomyosin interaction by E40K and E54K Tm mutants leads to a decreased force-generating ability at systole, which is the main mechanism underlying the early pathogenesis of DCM.     

Príncipe island hawksbills: Genetic isolation of an eastern Atlantic stock

The hawksbill turtle is a critically endangered species that has been extensively exploited for centuries. Príncipe Island off western Africa harbours one of the species' major nesting populations in the eastern Atlantic, as well as hosting year-round foraging aggregations of juveniles, subadults and adult males. To gain insight into the population's genetic structure and relationships with regional stocks, we analysed mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences of nesting females (N = 9), foraging adult females (N = 11), adult males (N = 32), subadults (N = 15) and juveniles (N = 80). The nesting population was found to be fixed for a single haplotype (EATL), which had been previously reported in both western and eastern Atlantic hawksbill foraging sites but had no known rookery source prior to this study. Thus it is now possible to confirm the westward transoceanic movement by hawksbills originating from Príncipe Island. Our analyses demonstrated that the Príncipe Island nesting colony is genetically distinct from breeding populations in the western Atlantic and is phylogenetically linked with Indo-Pacific hawksbill clades, suggesting that Príncipe Island was most likely colonised by migrants from the Indian Ocean via the Cape of Good Hope in southern Africa. Mixed stock analyses revealed that the eastern Atlantic appears to be the primary foraging area for Príncipe hawksbills (75%) while most of the foraging juveniles in Príncipe waters originate from the Príncipe rookery (84%). Furthermore, the presence of Caribbean haplotypes at low frequencies (< 5%) suggests that eastward transatlantic movements by juveniles to distant foraging and developmental habitats also take place. Depleted hawksbill populations in the eastern Atlantic combined with the low genetic variability and high genetic distinctiveness found in the Príncipe nesting and foraging aggregations with respect to the western Atlantic, underscore the high degree of isolation and vulnerability of this eastern Atlantic stock. These characteristics are highly relevant for the development of effective conservation programmes and highlight the urgent need to consolidate international cooperation across regional boundaries.     

A High Throughput Genotyping Approach Reveals Distinctive Autosomal Genetic Signatures for European and Near Eastern Wild Boar

The lack of a Near Eastern genetic signature in modern European porcine breeds indicates that, although domestic pigs from the Fertile Crescent entered Europe during the Neolithic, they were completely replaced by their European counterparts in a short window of time. Whilst the absence of such genetic signature has been convincingly demonstrated at the mitochondrial level, variation at the autosomal genomes of European and Near Eastern Sus scrofa has not been compared yet. Herewith, we have explored the genetic relationships among 43 wild boar from Europe (N = 21), Near East (N = 19) and Korea (N = 3), and 40 Iberian (N = 16), Canarian (N = 4) and Mangalitza (N = 20) pigs by using a high throughput SNP genotyping platform. After data filtering, 37,167 autosomal SNPs were used to perform population genetics analyses. A multidimensional scaling plot based on genome-wide identity-by-state pairwise distances inferred with PLINK showed that Near Eastern and European wild boar populations are genetically differentiated. Maximum likelihood trees built with TreeMix supported this conclusion i.e. an early population split between Near Eastern and European Sus scrofa was observed. Moreover, analysis of the data with Structure evidenced that the sampled Iberian, Canarian and Mangalitza pigs did not carry any autosomal signature compatible with a Near Eastern ancestry, a finding that agrees well with previous mitochondrial studies.     

Evaluation of 41 Candidate Gene Variants for Obesity in the EPIC-Potsdam Cohort by Multi-Locus Stepwise Regression

Objective

Obesity has become a leading preventable cause of morbidity and mortality in many parts of the world. It is thought to originate from multiple genetic and environmental determinants. The aim of the current study was to introduce haplotype-based multi-locus stepwise regression (MSR) as a method to investigate combinations of unlinked single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for obesity phenotypes.

Methods

In 2,122 healthy randomly selected men and women of the EPIC-Potsdam cohort, the association between 41 SNPs from 18 obesity-candidate genes and either body mass index (BMI, mean = 25.9 kg/m², SD = 4.1) or waist circumference (WC, mean = 85.2 cm, SD = 12.6) was assessed. Single SNP analyses were done by using linear regression adjusted for age, sex, and other covariates. Subsequently, MSR was applied to search for the ‘best’ SNP combinations. Combinations were selected according to specific AIC_c and p-value criteria. Model uncertainty was accounted for by a permutation test.

Results

The strongest single SNP effects on BMI were found for TBC1D1 rs637797 (β = −0.33, SE = 0.13), FTO rs9939609 (β = 0.28, SE = 0.13), MC4R rs17700144 (β = 0.41, SE = 0.15), and MC4R rs10871777 (β = 0.34, SE = 0.14). All these SNPs showed similar effects on waist circumference. The two ‘best’ six-SNP combinations for BMI (global p-value = 3.45⋅10^–6 and 6.82⋅10^–6) showed effects ranging from −1.70 (SE = 0.34) to 0.74 kg/m² (SE = 0.21) per allele combination. We selected two six-SNP combinations on waist circumference (global p-value = 7.80⋅10^–6 and 9.76⋅10^–6) with an allele combination effect of −2.96 cm (SE = 0.76) at maximum. Additional adjustment for BMI revealed 15 three-SNP combinations (global p-values ranged from 3.09⋅10^–4 to 1.02⋅10^–2). However, after carrying out the permutation test all SNP combinations lost significance indicating that the statistical associations might have occurred by chance.

Conclusion

MSR provides a tool to search for risk-related SNP combinations of common traits or diseases. However, the search process does not always find meaningful SNP combinations in a dataset.     

Smoking Modifies the Associated Increased Risk of Future Cardiovascular Disease by Genetic Variation on Chromosome 9p21

Aims

Genetic predisposition for cardiovascular disease (CVD) is likely to be modified by environmental exposures. We tested if the associated risk of CVD and CVD-mortality by the single nucleotide polymorphism rs4977574 on chromosome 9p21 is modified by life-style factors.

Methods and results

A total of 24944 middle-aged subjects (62% females) from the population-based Malmö-Diet-and-Cancer-Cohort were genotyped. Smoking, education and physical activity-levels were recorded. Subjects were followed for 15 years for incidence of coronary artery disease (CAD; N = 2309), ischemic stroke (N = 1253) and CVD-mortality (N = 1156). Multiplicative interactions between rs4977574 and life-style factors on endpoints were tested in Cox-regression-models. We observed an interaction between rs4977574 and smoking on incident CAD (P = 0.035) and CVD-mortality (P = 0.012). The hazard ratios (HR) per risk allele of rs4977574 were highest in never smokers (N = 9642) for CAD (HR = 1.26; 95% CI 1.13–1.40; P<0.001) and for CVD-mortality (HR = 1.40; 95% CI 1.20–1.63; P<0.001), whereas the risk increase by rs4977574 was attenuated in current smokers (N = 7000) for both CAD (HR = 1.05; 95%CI 0.95–1.16; P = 0.326) and CVD-mortality (HR = 1.08; 95%CI 0.94–1.23; P = 0.270). A meta-analysis supported the finding that the associated increased risk of CAD by the risk-allele was attenuated in smokers. Neither education nor physical activity-levels modified the associated risk of CAD, ischemic stroke and CVD mortality conferred by rs4977574.

Conclusion

Smoking may modify the associated risk of CAD and CVD-mortality conferred by genetic variation on chromosome 9p21. Whether the observed attenuation of the genetic risk reflects a pathophysiological mechanism or is a result of smoking being such a strong risk-factor that it may eliminate the associated genetic effect, requires further investigation.     

Changes in Uric Acid Levels following Bariatric Surgery Are Not Associated with SLC2A9 Variants in the Swedish Obese Subjects Study

Context and Objective

Obesity and SLC2A9 genotype are strong determinants of uric acid levels. However, data on SLC2A9 variants and weight loss induced changes in uric acid levels are missing. We examined whether the changes in uric acid levels two- and ten-years after weight loss induced by bariatric surgery were associated with SLC2A9 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the Swedish Obese Subjects study.

Methods

SNPs (N = 14) identified by genome-wide association studies and exonic SNPs in the SLC2A9 gene locus were genotyped. Cross-sectional associations were tested before (N = 1806), two (N = 1664) and ten years (N = 1201) after bariatric surgery. Changes in uric acid were compared between baseline and Year 2 (N = 1660) and years 2 and 10 (N = 1172). A multiple testing corrected threshold of P = 0.007 was used for statistical significance.

Results

Overall, 11 of the 14 tested SLC2A9 SNPs were significantly associated with cross-sectional uric acid levels at all three time points, with rs13113918 showing the strongest association at each time point (R² = 3.7−5.2%, 3.9×10⁻²²≤p≤7.7×10⁻¹¹). One SNP (rs737267) showed a significant association (R² = 0.60%, P = 0.002) with change in uric acid levels from baseline to Year 2, as common allele homozygotes (C/C, N = 957) showed a larger decrease in uric acid (−61.4 µmol/L) compared to minor allele carriers (A/X: −51.7 µmol/L, N = 702). No SNPs were associated with changes in uric acid from years 2 to 10.

Conclusions

SNPs in the SLC2A9 locus contribute significantly to uric acid levels in obese individuals, and the associations persist even after considerable weight loss due to bariatric surgery. However, we found little evidence for an interaction between genotype and weight change on the response of uric acid to bariatric surgery over ten years. Thus, the fluctuations in uric acid levels among the surgery group appear to be driven by the weight losses and gains, independent of SLC2A9 genotypes.     

Management of Deep Brain Stimulator Battery Failure: Battery Estimators,Charge Density,and Importance of Clinical Symptoms

Objective

We aimed in this investigation to study deep brain stimulation (DBS) battery drain with special attention directed toward patient symptoms prior to and following battery replacement.

Background

Previously our group developed web-based calculators and smart phone applications to estimate DBS battery life (http://mdc.mbi.ufl.edu/surgery/dbs-battery-estimator).

Methods

A cohort of 320 patients undergoing DBS battery replacement from 2002–2012 were included in an IRB approved study. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS 20.0 (IBM, Armonk, NY).

Results

The mean charge density for treatment of Parkinson’s disease was 7.2 µC/cm²/phase (SD = 3.82), for dystonia was 17.5 µC/cm²/phase (SD = 8.53), for essential tremor was 8.3 µC/cm²/phase (SD = 4.85), and for OCD was 18.0 µC/cm²/phase (SD = 4.35). There was a significant relationship between charge density and battery life (r = −.59, p<.001), as well as total power and battery life (r = −.64, p<.001). The UF estimator (r = .67, p<.001) and the Medtronic helpline (r = .74, p<.001) predictions of battery life were significantly positively associated with actual battery life. Battery status indicators on Soletra and Kinetra were poor predictors of battery life. In 38 cases, the symptoms improved following a battery change, suggesting that the neurostimulator was likely responsible for symptom worsening. For these cases, both the UF estimator and the Medtronic helpline were significantly correlated with battery life (r = .65 and r = .70, respectively, both p<.001).

Conclusions

Battery estimations, charge density, total power and clinical symptoms were important factors. The observation of clinical worsening that was rescued following neurostimulator replacement reinforces the notion that changes in clinical symptoms can be associated with battery drain.     

Antibody Maturation and Viral Diversification in HIV-Infected Women

Introduction

The Post-exposure Prophylaxis in Infants (PEPI)-Malawi trial evaluated infant antiretroviral regimens for prevention of post-natal HIV transmission. A multi-assay algorithm (MAA) that includes the BED capture immunoassay, an avidity assay, CD4 cell count, and viral load was used to identify women who were vs. were not recently infected at the time of enrollment (MAA recent, N = 73; MAA non-recent, N = 2,488); a subset of the women in the MAA non-recent group known to have been HIV infected for at least 2 years before enrollment (known non-recent, N = 54). Antibody maturation and viral diversification were examined in these women.

Methods

Samples collected at enrollment (N = 2,561) and 12–24 months later (N = 1,306) were available for serologic analysis using the BED and avidity assays. A subset of those samples was used for analysis of viral diversity, which was performed using a high resolution melting (HRM) diversity assay. Viral diversity analysis was performed using all available samples from women in the MAA recent group (61 enrollment samples, 38 follow-up samples) and the known non-recent group (43 enrollment samples, 22 follow-up samples). Diversity data from PEPI-Malawi were also compared to similar data from 169 adults in the United States (US) with known recent infection (N = 102) and known non-recent infection (N = 67).

Results

In PEPI-Malawi, results from the BED and avidity assays increased over time in the MAA recent group, but did not change significantly in the MAA non-recent group. At enrollment, HIV diversity was lower in the MAA recent group than in the known non-recent group. HRM diversity assay results from women in PEPI-Malawi were similar to those from adults in the US with known duration of HIV infection.

Conclusions

Antibody maturation and HIV diversification patterns in African women provide additional support for use of the MAA to identify populations with recent HIV infection.     

E-Cigarette Use among Smokers with Serious Mental Illness

Background

We examined electronic cigarette (EC) use, correlates of use, and associated changes in smoking behavior among smokers with serious mental illness in a clinical trial.

Methods

Adult smokers were recruited during acute psychiatric hospitalization (N = 956, 73% enrollment among approached smokers) in the San Francisco Bay Area between 2009–2013. At baseline, participants averaged 17 (SD = 10) cigarettes per day for 19 (SD = 14) years; 24% intended to quit smoking in the next month. Analyses examined frequency and correlates of EC use reported over the 18-month trial and changes in smoking behavior by EC use status.

Findings

EC use was 11% overall, and by year of enrollment, increased from 0% in 2009 to 25% in 2013. In multiple logistic regression, the likelihood of EC use was significantly greater with each additional year of recruitment, for those aged 18–26, and for those in the preparation versus precontemplation stage of change, and unlikely among Hispanic participants. EC use was unrelated to gender, psychiatric diagnosis, and measures of tobacco dependence at baseline. Further, over the 18-month trial, EC use was not associated with changes in smoking status or, among continued smokers, with reductions in cigarettes per day.

Interpretation

Within a clinical trial with smokers with serious mental illness, EC use increased over time, particularly among younger adults and those intending to quit tobacco. EC use was unrelated to changes in smoking. The findings are of clinical interest and warrant further study.     

Insights into habitat utilisation of the hawksbill turtle, Eretmochelys imbricata (Linnaeus, 1766), using acoustic telemetry

Patterns of distribution, key biometric parameters and home range extent were determined for hawksbill turtles at Lighthouse Reef Atoll (LRA), Belize over two field seasons (16 days, 2009; 30 days, 2010). Relative abundance was determined using 49 sightings transects (≈ 1 km) distributed across the atoll and of all turtles encountered (n = 68), 91% were immature (CCL_min ≤ 65 cm). Habitat type was significantly correlated with abundance, with more turtles encountered on the coral reef than in the lagoon (GzLMM, χ²₂ = 6.85, p < 0.05; CPUE reef = 1.41 turtles h^− 1, CPUE lagoon = 0.62 turtles h^− 1). Hawksbills were also significantly more abundant within protected areas (GzLMM, χ²₁ = 8.69, p < 0.05; CPUE Blue Hole Natural Monument (BHNM) = 2.96 turtles person^− 1 h^− 1; CPUE Half Moon Caye Natural Monument (HMCNM) = 2.34 turtles h^− 1; outside boundaries = 0.88 turtles h^− 1). Of 26 captures, 19 focal individuals were equipped with ultrasonic transmitters for active acoustic telemetry, and tracked for 6-25 days (n = 10, 2009; n = 9, 2010). Spatial habitat utilisation was found to be highly variable, with large areas of overlap between distinct home ranges. Home range averaged 31.2 ha ± 32.6 (range 5.1-111.3 ha) for the juveniles that were successfully tracked (n = 15), with maximum displacement in the order of 1.8 km ± 1.0 (range 0.5-4.0 km) and net displacement at 1.2 km ± 0.9. This offshore atoll constitutes an important developmental habitat for the regional population and although our tracking durations were limited, home range of juvenile hawksbills at this site is significantly more expansive than that documented elsewhere.     

Appropriate Body Mass Index and Waist Circumference Cutoff for Overweight and Central Obesity among Adults in Cambodia

Background

Body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) are used in risk assessment for the development of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) worldwide. Within a Cambodian population, this study aimed to identify an appropriate BMI and WC cutoff to capture those individuals that are overweight and have an elevated risk of vascular disease.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We used nationally representative cross-sectional data from the STEP survey conducted by the Department of Preventive Medicine, Ministry of Health, Cambodia in 2010. In total, 5,015 subjects between age 25 and 64 years were included in the analyses. Chi-square, Fisher’s Exact test and Student t-test, and multiple logistic regression were performed. Of total, 35.6% (n = 1,786) were men, and 64.4% (n = 3,229) were women. Mean age was 43.0 years (SD = 11.2 years) and 43.6 years (SD = 10.9 years) for men and women, respectively. Significant association of subjects with hypertension and hypercholesterolemia was found in those with BMI ≥23.0 kg/m² and with WC >80.0 cm in both sexes. The Area Under the Curve (AUC) from Receiver Operating Characteristic curves was significantly greater in both sexes (all p-values <0.001) when BMI of 23.0 kg/m² was used as the cutoff point for overweight compared to that using WHO BMI classification for overweight (BMI ≥25.0 kg/m²) for detecting the three cardiovascular risk factors. Similarly, AUC was also significantly higher in men (p-value <0.001) when using WC of 80.0 cm as the cutoff point for central obesity compared to that recommended by WHO (WC ≥94.0 cm in men).

Conclusion

Lower cutoffs for BMI and WC should be used to identify of risks of hypertension, diabetes, and hypercholesterolemia for Cambodian aged between 25 and 64 years.