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1.
Aim It is increasingly recognized the importance of accounting for imperfect detection in species distribution modelling and conservation planning. However, the integration of detectability into a spatially explicit frame has received little attention. We aim (1) to show how to develop distribution maps of both detection probability and survey effort required to reliably determine a species presence/absence and (2) to increase awareness of the spatial variation of detection error inherent in studies of species occurrence. Location North‐western Spain. Methods We registered the presence/absence of the endangered Egyptian vulture (Neophron percnopterus) in 213 surveys performed in 40 of 104 territories once known to be occupied. We model simultaneously both detection probability and occurrence, using site occupancy modelling. With the resulting regression equations, we developed distribution maps of both detection probability and required sampling effort throughout the area. Results Of the studied territories, 72.5% were detected as occupied, but after accounting for imperfect detection, the proportion of sites truly occupied was 79%. Detectability decreased in territories with higher topographical irregularity and increased with both the time of day of the survey and the progress of the season. Spatial distribution of detectability showed a mainly north–south gradient following the distribution of slope in the area. The likelihood of occupancy increased with rockier, less forested surface and less topographical irregularity within the territory. A minimum of five surveys, on average, are needed to assess, with 95% probability, the occupancy status of a site, ranging from ≤ 3 to > 24 visits/territory depending on survey‐ and site‐specific features. Main conclusions Accounting for detectability and its sources of variation allows us to elaborate distribution maps of detectability‐based survey effort. These maps are useful tools to reliably assess (e.g. with 95% probability) occupancy status throughout a landscape and provide guidance for species conservation planning. 相似文献
2.
Brendan A. Wintle Terry V. Walshe Kirsten M. Parris Michael A. McCarthy 《Diversity & distributions》2012,18(4):417-424
Aim Conservation practitioners use biological surveys to ascertain whether or not a site is occupied by a particular species. Widely used statistical methods estimate the probability that a species will be detected in a survey of an occupied site. However, these estimates of detection probability are alone not sufficient to calculate the probability that a species is present given that it was not detected. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate methods for correctly calculating (1) the probability a species occupies a site given one or more non‐detections, and (2) the number of sequential non‐detections necessary to assert, with a pre‐specified confidence, that a species is absent from a site. Location Occupancy data for a tree frog in eastern Australia serve to illustrate methods that may be applied anywhere species’ occupancy data are used and detection probabilities are < 1. Methods Building on Bayesian expressions for the probability that a site is occupied by a species when it is not detected, and the number of non‐detections necessary to assert absence with a pre‐specified confidence, we estimate occupancy probabilities across tree frog survey locations, drawing on information about where and when the species was detected during surveys. Results We show that the number of sequential non‐detections necessary to assert that a species is absent increases nonlinearly with the prior probability of occupancy, the probability of detection if present, and the desired level of confidence about absence. Main conclusions If used more widely, the Bayesian analytical approaches illustrated here would improve collection and interpretation of biological survey data, providing a coherent way to incorporate detection probability estimates in the design of minimum survey requirements for monitoring, impact assessment and distribution modelling. 相似文献
3.
Optimal surveillance strategy for invasive species management when surveys stop after detection
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Gurutzeta Guillera‐Arroita Cindy E. Hauser Michael A. McCarthy 《Ecology and evolution》2014,4(10):1751-1760
Invasive species are a cause for concern in natural and economic systems and require both monitoring and management. There is a trade‐off between the amount of resources spent on surveying for the species and conducting early management of occupied sites, and the resources that are ultimately spent in delayed management at sites where the species was present but undetected. Previous work addressed this optimal resource allocation problem assuming that surveys continue despite detection until the initially planned survey effort is consumed. However, a more realistic scenario is often that surveys stop after detection (i.e., follow a “removal” sampling design) and then management begins. Such an approach will indicate a different optimal survey design and can be expected to be more efficient. We analyze this case and compare the expected efficiency of invasive species management programs under both survey methods. We also evaluate the impact of mis‐specifying the type of sampling approach during the program design phase. We derive analytical expressions that optimize resource allocation between monitoring and management in surveillance programs when surveys stop after detection. We do this under a scenario of unconstrained resources and scenarios where survey budget is constrained. The efficiency of surveillance programs is greater if a “removal survey” design is used, with larger gains obtained when savings from early detection are high, occupancy is high, and survey costs are not much lower than early management costs at a site. Designing a surveillance program disregarding that surveys stop after detection can result in an efficiency loss. Our results help guide the design of future surveillance programs for invasive species. Addressing program design within a decision‐theoretic framework can lead to a better use of available resources. We show how species prevalence, its detectability, and the benefits derived from early detection can be considered. 相似文献
4.
ABSTRACT Broadcasts of conspecific vocalizations are used to increase detection rates on surveys of secretive bird species, yet the assessment of detectability necessary to fully interpret such survey data is frequently lacking. We used radiotelemetry to evaluate the probability of detection of 17 radio‐tagged male Flammulated Owls (Otus flammeolus) using conspecific broadcast surveys in Idaho during 2005 and 2006. Probability of detection among the 11 paired, five unpaired, and one unknown pairing status owls was 100% during the pair‐bonding and incubation periods of the breeding season, after which it declined to less than 15% during the postfledging period. Paired males showed a different pattern than unpaired males. Following hatching of eggs, detectability of paired males declined gradually over a 6‐week period, whereas detectability of unpaired males dropped sharply for a 4‐week period before increasing during the postfledging period. We suggest that surveys for Flammulated Owls be conducted during the pair‐bonding and incubation periods when high detectability permits stronger inference concerning the presence or absence of owls based on broadcast survey detections. 相似文献
5.
Nadia I. Richman James M. Gibbons Samuel T. Turvey Tomonari Akamatsu Benazir Ahmed Emile Mahabub Brian D. Smith Julia P. G. Jones 《PloS one》2014,9(5)
Detection of animals during visual surveys is rarely perfect or constant, and failure to account for imperfect detectability affects the accuracy of abundance estimates. Freshwater cetaceans are among the most threatened group of mammals, and visual surveys are a commonly employed method for estimating population size despite concerns over imperfect and unquantified detectability. We used a combined visual-acoustic survey to estimate detectability of Ganges River dolphins (Platanista gangetica gangetica) in four waterways of southern Bangladesh. The combined visual-acoustic survey resulted in consistently higher detectability than a single observer-team visual survey, thereby improving power to detect trends. Visual detectability was particularly low for dolphins close to meanders where these habitat features temporarily block the view of the preceding river surface. This systematic bias in detectability during visual-only surveys may lead researchers to underestimate the importance of heavily meandering river reaches. Although the benefits of acoustic surveys are increasingly recognised for marine cetaceans, they have not been widely used for monitoring abundance of freshwater cetaceans due to perceived costs and technical skill requirements. We show that acoustic surveys are in fact a relatively cost-effective approach for surveying freshwater cetaceans, once it is acknowledged that methods that do not account for imperfect detectability are of limited value for monitoring. 相似文献
6.
Aim (1) To increase awareness of the challenges induced by imperfect detection, which is a fundamental issue in species distribution modelling; (2) to emphasize the value of replicate observations for species distribution modelling; and (3) to show how ‘cheap’ checklist data in faunal/floral databases may be used for the rigorous modelling of distributions by site‐occupancy models. Location Switzerland. Methods We used checklist data collected by volunteers during 1999 and 2000 to analyse the distribution of the blue hawker, Aeshna cyanea (Odonata, Aeshnidae), a common dragonfly in Switzerland. We used data from repeated visits to 1‐ha pixels to derive ‘detection histories’ and apply site‐occupancy models to estimate the ‘true’ species distribution, i.e. corrected for imperfect detection. We modelled blue hawker distribution as a function of elevation and year and its detection probability of elevation, year and season. Results The best model contained cubic polynomial elevation effects for distribution and quadratic effects of elevation and season for detectability. We compared the site‐occupancy model with a conventional distribution model based on a generalized linear model, which assumes perfect detectability (p = 1). The conventional distribution map looked very different from the distribution map obtained using site‐occupancy models that accounted for the imperfect detection. The conventional model underestimated the species distribution by 60%, and the slope parameters of the occurrence–elevation relationship were also underestimated when assuming p = 1. Elevation was not only an important predictor of blue hawker occurrence, but also of the detection probability, with a bell‐shaped relationship. Furthermore, detectability increased over the season. The average detection probability was estimated at only 0.19 per survey. Main conclusions Conventional species distribution models do not model species distributions per se but rather the apparent distribution, i.e. an unknown proportion of species distributions. That unknown proportion is equivalent to detectability. Imperfect detection in conventional species distribution models yields underestimates of the extent of distributions and covariate effects that are biased towards zero. In addition, patterns in detectability will erroneously be ascribed to species distributions. In contrast, site‐occupancy models applied to replicated detection/non‐detection data offer a powerful framework for making inferences about species distributions corrected for imperfect detection. The use of ‘cheap’ checklist data greatly enhances the scope of applications of this useful class of models. 相似文献
7.
Detectability of individual animals is highly variable and nearly always < 1; imperfect detection must be accounted for to reliably estimate population sizes and trends. Hierarchical models can simultaneously estimate abundance and effective detection probability, but there are several different mechanisms that cause variation in detectability. Neglecting temporary emigration can lead to biased population estimates because availability and conditional detection probability are confounded. In this study, we extend previous hierarchical binomial mixture models to account for multiple sources of variation in detectability. The state process of the hierarchical model describes ecological mechanisms that generate spatial and temporal patterns in abundance, while the observation model accounts for the imperfect nature of counting individuals due to temporary emigration and false absences. We illustrate our model’s potential advantages, including the allowance of temporary emigration between sampling periods, with a case study of southern red-backed salamanders Plethodon serratus. We fit our model and a standard binomial mixture model to counts of terrestrial salamanders surveyed at 40 sites during 3–5 surveys each spring and fall 2010–2012. Our models generated similar parameter estimates to standard binomial mixture models. Aspect was the best predictor of salamander abundance in our case study; abundance increased as aspect became more northeasterly. Increased time-since-rainfall strongly decreased salamander surface activity (i.e. availability for sampling), while higher amounts of woody cover objects and rocks increased conditional detection probability (i.e. probability of capture, given an animal is exposed to sampling). By explicitly accounting for both components of detectability, we increased congruence between our statistical modeling and our ecological understanding of the system. We stress the importance of choosing survey locations and protocols that maximize species availability and conditional detection probability to increase population parameter estimate reliability. 相似文献
8.
GEORGIA E. GARRARD SARAH A. BEKESSY MICHAEL A. McCARTHY BRENDAN A. WINTLE 《Austral ecology》2008,33(8):986-998
There is now a substantial body of literature documenting the detectability of plants and animals under standard survey conditions. Despite the evidence that many flora and fauna species have detection probabilities of less than one, it is still the default assumption of most environmental impact assessment processes that if a species is present, it will be detected. Here we briefly review a number of existing studies that have estimated the survey effort necessary to detect animal species, based on what is known about their detection rates in standard surveys. We then propose a novel method, based on failure‐time analysis, for quantifying the detectability of and determining appropriate survey effort for plant species during flora surveys. We provide computer code for implementing the method in the Bayesian freeware WinBUGS. Methods for estimating detectability can be used to inform minimum survey requirements and have important applications in environmental impact assessment and monitoring. 相似文献
9.
Imperfect detection leads to underestimates of species presence and decreases the reliability of survey data. Imperfect detection has not been examined in detail for boreal forest understory plants, despite widespread use of surveys for rare plants prior to development. We addressed this issue using detectability trials conducted in Alberta, Canada with decoy vascular plants. Volunteer observers searched in survey plots for species while unaware of their true presence or abundance. Our findings indicate that the detection of cryptic species is very low when abundance is low (0–35%) and plot size is large (<?50% in?≥?100 m2). Plant density (individuals per unit area) was the most important determinant of detection probability, where more abundant species were detected more often and with less survey effort. When abundance was held constant, diffusely arranged species were twice as likely to be detected compared to those in clumps. Detection of cryptic species can be low even when individuals are flowering, and even morphologically distinct species can go unnoticed in small plots. We suggest that future decoy trials investigate search strategies that could improve detection and that field surveys for vascular plants address imperfect detection through careful consideration of plot size, characteristics of the target species, and survey effort, both in terms of time expenditure within an area and the number of observers employed. 相似文献
10.
Relationships between species abundance and occupancy are of considerable interest in metapopulation biology and in macroecology. Such relationships may be described concisely using probability models that characterize variation in abundance of a species. However, estimation of the parameters of these models in most ecological problems is impaired by imperfect detection. When organisms are detected imperfectly, observed counts are biased estimates of true abundance, and this induces bias in stated occupancy or occurrence probability. In this paper we consider a class of models that enable estimation of abundance/occupancy relationships from counts of organisms that result from surveys in which detection is imperfect. Under such models, parameter estimation and inference are based on conventional likelihood methods. We provide an application of these models to geographically extensive breeding bird survey data in which alternative models of abundance are considered that include factors that influence variation in abundance and detectability. Using these models, we produce estimates of abundance and occupancy maps that honor important sources of spatial variation in avian abundance and provide clearly interpretable characterizations of abundance and occupancy adjusted for imperfect detection. 相似文献
11.
The Carpentarian Pseudantechinus (Pseudantechinus mimulus) is a poorly studied dasyurid marsupial that inhabits rocky outcrops in the Mount Isa Inlier bioregion in Queensland and the Gulf Coastal and Gulf Fall and Uplands bioregions in the Northern Territory. It is readily detected by passive infrared triggered camera traps (‘camera traps’). Camera trap data can be used to develop detection probability estimates from which activity patterns can be inferred, but no effort has previously been made to determine changes in the detectability of P. mimulus throughout the year. We undertook a 13-month baited camera trap survey across nine sampling periods at 60 locations of known historic presence or nearby suitable habitat to assess the change in detection rates and detection probabilities of P. mimulus across a year. Detection probabilities were calculated from camera trap data within a single-species, multi-season occupancy framework to determine optimal survey timing. Detection probability data were used to calculate the likelihood of false absences to determine optimal survey duration. We recorded 2493 detections of P. mimulus over 10 966 camera days. Detection probability ranged from 0.009 to 0.179 and was significantly higher from April to October than from November to March. The likelihood of false absences varied by sampling period and desired level of confidence. We find that camera trap surveys for P. mimulus are best conducted from April to October, but optimal survey duration is dependent upon the time of year and desired level of confidence that an observed absence from a given site reflects a true absence at that site. Attaining a minimum of 80% confidence of absence requires as few as 9 days of survey effort in May to 16 days of survey effort in October. 相似文献
12.
Jeffrey A. Manning 《The Journal of wildlife management》2011,75(7):1558-1567
Estimating range-wide population trends of western burrowing owls (Athene cunicularia) requires standardized survey protocols that correct for detection bias in environments that support large owl populations. High concentrations of owls exist in irrigated agroecosystems within the southwest United States, yet little is known about the factors that affect detection bias during owl surveys in these systems. I used closed-population capture-recapture models to evaluate 4 factors that could affect the probability of a surveyor detecting an owl activity center (i.e., nest burrow) during visual surveys where owls are the focal object and analyzed the relationship (linear or curvilinear) between specific factors and detection probability. I recorded 1,199 detections of owls from 132 capture-recapture surveys within 12 sites of the Imperial Valley agroecosystem in California, USA between 16 April and 20 May 2006. I also conducted 96 time budget surveys throughout the day and used mixed linear models to evaluate the effect of each factor on probability of an owl activity center being available for detection (i.e., ≥1 owls above ground) during surveys. Model selection results indicated that detection probability was influenced by ambient air temperature interacting with wind speed. Detection probability followed a curvilinear relationship that resembled bell-shaped curve along a temperature gradient, with the maximum detection probability shifting as a function of wind speed. At low temperatures, detection probability declined with increased wind speed, but this relationship was reversed at high temperatures, producing a 3-dimensional pattern in detection probability characterized by a saddle-shaped hyperbolic paraboloid response surface. The probability of an activity center being available for detection declined curvilinearly with increased temperature and explained 51% of the variation in detection probability. Given the broad range of detection probabilities, correcting visual survey counts for detection bias is necessary for comparing population estimates among regions and through time. Survey designs intended to estimate abundance of owls in southwest agroecosystems should incorporate methods to estimate and correct for variation in detection probability that include measurements of ambient temperature and wind speed for use as covariates. © 2011 The Wildlife Society. 相似文献
13.
Mackenzie R. Jeffress Craig P. Paukert Brett K. Sandercock Philip S. Gipson 《The Journal of wildlife management》2011,75(1):144-150
Sign surveys are commonly used to study and monitor wildlife species but may be flawed when surveys are conducted only once and cover short distances, which can lead to a lack of accountability for false absences. Multiple observers surveyed for river otter (Lontra canadensis) scat and tracks along stream and reservoir shorelines at 110 randomly selected sites in eastern Kansas from January to April 2008 and 2009 to determine if detection probability differed among substrates, sign types, observers, survey lengths, and near access points. We estimated detection probabilities (p) of river otters using occupancy models in Program PRESENCE. Mean detection probability for a 400-m survey was highest in mud substrates (p = 0.60) and lowest in snow (p = 0.18) and leaf litter substrates (p = 0.27). Scat had a higher detection probability (p = 0.53) than tracks (p = 0.18), and experienced observers had higher detection probabilities (p > 0.71) than novice observers (p < 0.55). Detection probabilities increased almost 3-fold as survey length increased from 200 m to 1,000 m, and otter sign was not concentrated near access points. After accounting for imperfect detection, our estimates of otter site occupancy based on a 400-m survey increased >3-fold, providing further evidence of the potential negative bias that can occur in estimates from sign surveys when imperfect detection is not addressed. Our study identifies areas for improvement in sign survey methodologies and results are applicable for sign surveys commonly used for many species across a range of habitats. © 2010 The Wildlife Society 相似文献
14.
Northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) have received intense research and management interest since their listing as a threatened species by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service in 1990. For example, public and private forest managers in the Pacific Northwest, USA, conduct surveys to determine presence or absence of spotted owls prior to timber harvest operations. However, although recently developed statistical methods have been applied to presence–absence data collected during research surveys, the effectiveness of operational surveys for detecting spotted owls and evaluating site occupancy dynamics is not known. We used spotted owl survey data collected from 1995 to 2009 on a study area in interior northern California, USA, to evaluate competing occupancy models from Program PRESENCE using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). During 1,282 individual surveys, we recorded 480 spotted owl detections (37.4%) and 13 barred owl (1.0%) detections. Average per visit detection probability (85% CL) for single and paired spotted owls was 0.93 (0.90–0.96) for informed daytime, stand-based searches and 0.47 (0.43–0.51) for nighttime, station-based surveys (estimated from the best model); the average per visit detection probability from the null model was 0.67 (0.64–0.70). Average pair-only detection probabilities were 0.86 (0.81–0.90) for informed daytime, stand-based searches and 0.23 (0.18–0.29) for nighttime, station-based surveys; the average per visit detection probability from the null model was 0.63 (0.58–0.68). Site occupancy for any owl declined from 0.81 (0.59–0.93) in 1995 to 0.50 (0.39–0.60) in 2009; pair occupancy declined from 0.75 (0.56–0.87) to 0.46 (0.31–0.61). Our results suggest that a combination of 1 informed stand and 2 station-based operational surveys can support determinations of spotted owl site status (either a single or a pair) at desired levels of confidence. However, our information was collected in an area where barred owls were rarely detected. Surveys conducted in areas that support well-established barred owl populations are likely to be less effective for determining presence or absence of spotted owls and may require more surveys and/or different survey methods to determine site status with confidence. © 2012 The Wildlife Society. 相似文献
15.
Anthony R. Rendall John G. White Raylene Cooke Desley A. Whisson Thomas Schneider Lisa Beilharz Eleanor Poelsma Julia Ryeland Michael A. Weston 《Ecological Management & Restoration》2021,22(1):72-79
Autonomously triggered cameras are a common wildlife survey technique. The use of attractants and surrounding microhabitats is likely to influence detection probabilities and survey outcomes; however, few studies consider these factors. We compared three attractants (peanut butter‐based, tuna‐based and a control) in a Latin square design through a coastal shrubland with high microhabitat variability at Cape Otway, Victoria, Australia (38º50?S, 143º30?E). Deployments involved 36 cameras for four days in each of five years. The percentage cover of each vegetation structural type (low [no or sparse cover], moderate [grass] or high [shrubs]) within 20 m of each camera was calculated and reduced to a single variable using PCA. Dynamic occupancy modelling, with lure type and vegetation structure as covariates of detection probability, found that peanut butter attracted the greatest diversity of species (24 of 35 species, 69%) and yielded the greatest number of detections (50% of 319) when compared with tuna oil (66% and 24%, respectively) and the control (43% and 26%, respectively). Peanut butter attracted more Macropodidae (wallabies) and Muridae (rats and mice); however, vegetation structural variables were the greatest influence on Corvidae/Artamidae (raven/currawong) detections with higher detectability in more open areas. Vegetation structure also influenced Muridae detections. This study reinforces the critical choice of appropriate attractants and camera placement when investigating vertebrate groups and highlights the role of microhabitat in the detection of small mammals and birds. We suggest future large‐scale camera surveys consider different bait types and microhabitats in their designs, to control for any biases and enable future advice on ‘optimal’ methods. 相似文献
16.
HOLLY H. EDWARDS KENNETH H. POLLOCK BRUCE B. ACKERMAN JOHN E. REYNOLDS III JAMES A. POWELL 《The Journal of wildlife management》2007,71(6):2052-2060
Abstract: Estimating components of detection probability is crucial to improving the design of aerial surveys for wildlife populations, and this is especially true for species of marine mammals that are threatened or endangered. To evaluate the probability that Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris) will be detected by observers during aerial surveys, we conducted 6 series of survey flights, during mornings and afternoons on 14-16 consecutive days over the Tampa Electric Company's (TECO) Big Bend power plant discharge canal in Tampa Bay, Florida, USA (winter 2000 through 2003). Our objective was to understand how our ability to detect manatees at a winter aggregation site affects aerial survey counts, so that we may improve techniques for estimating manatee population size. We estimated the probability that manatees would be present at the warm-water discharge of the plant during winter cold fronts and estimated the overall detection probability of manatees present at the plant and the 2 components that make up the probability of detection (the probability of being available and the probability of being detected given they are available). We used telemetry tags and marker flags (n = 15) to facilitate capture-recapture analyses. The probability that marked manatees would be at the plant varied from 48% to 68% across flight series and was inversely related to the ambient water temperature. Based on sightings of marked animals, estimates of the overall probability of detecting a manatee ranged from 45% to 69% across flight series (x̄ = 58%, n = 6). The probability that a manatee would be available to an observer ranged from 73% to 94% across flight series (x̄ = 83%) but was constant among years (83%, 81%, and 78%; x̄ = 81%). The probability that an available manatee would be detected by an aerial observer was variable across flight series (55-95%) and years (73%, 86%, and 66%, x̄ = 73%). Independent estimates of the probability that a manatee would be available to the observer on one pass were obtained from time-depth data loggers and ranged from 5% to 33% (x̄ = 19%, SE = 3.7%), and the probability that a manatee would be available during ≥1 of 10 passes ranged from 41% to 98% (x̄ = 88%, 95% confidence bounds 0.71-0.95). We adjusted survey counts using measures of detectability. Although corrected counts presented here are site-specific, adjusting counts based on detection probability will greatly improve reliability of population estimates from all aerial surveys. Special sampling to estimate components of detection probability should be built into all aerial surveys to ensure that reliable and unbiased information on species abundance is used to evaluate wildlife populations. 相似文献
17.
Margarita Medina‐Romero Andrew O'Reilly‐Nugent Anthony Davidson Jonathan Bray Elizabeth Wandrag Bernd Gruber Angelica Lopez‐Aldana Rakhi Palit Tim Reid Aaron Adamack Rod Pietsch Chris Allen Ralph Mac Nally Richard P. Duncan 《Ecography》2019,42(9):1514-1522
Imperfect detection can bias estimates of site occupancy in ecological surveys but can be corrected by estimating detection probability. Time‐to‐first‐detection (TTD) occupancy models have been proposed as a cost–effective survey method that allows detection probability to be estimated from single site visits. Nevertheless, few studies have validated the performance of occupancy‐detection models by creating a situation where occupancy is known, and model outputs can be compared with the truth. We tested the performance of TTD occupancy models in the face of detection heterogeneity using an experiment based on standard survey methods to monitor koala Phascolarctos cinereus populations in Australia. Known numbers of koala faecal pellets were placed under trees, and observers, uninformed as to which trees had pellets under them, carried out a TTD survey. We fitted five TTD occupancy models to the survey data, each making different assumptions about detectability, to evaluate how well each estimated the true occupancy status. Relative to the truth, all five models produced strongly biased estimates, overestimating detection probability and underestimating the number of occupied trees. Despite this, goodness‐of‐fit tests indicated that some models fitted the data well, with no evidence of model misfit. Hence, TTD occupancy models that appear to perform well with respect to the available data may be performing poorly. The reason for poor model performance was unaccounted for heterogeneity in detection probability, which is known to bias occupancy‐detection models. This poses a problem because unaccounted for heterogeneity could not be detected using goodness‐of‐fit tests and was only revealed because we knew the experimentally determined outcome. A challenge for occupancy‐detection models is to find ways to identify and mitigate the impacts of unobserved heterogeneity, which could unknowingly bias many models. 相似文献
18.
Les D. Murray Robert J. Gates R. Manuel Spinola 《The Journal of wildlife management》2011,75(5):1072-1081
Roadside point counts are often used to estimate trends of bird populations. The use of aural counts of birds without adjustment for detection probability, however, can lead to incorrect population trend estimates. We compared precision of estimates of density and detectability of whistling northern bobwhites (Colinus virginianus) using distance sampling, independent double-observer, and removal methods from roadside surveys. Two observers independently recorded each whistling bird heard, distance from the observer, and time of first detection at 362 call-count stops in Ohio. We examined models that included covariates for year and observer effects for each method and distance from observer effects for the double-observer and removal methods using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). The best model of detectability from distance sampling included observer and year effects. The best models from the removal and double-observer techniques included observer and distance effects. All 3 methods provided precise estimates of detection probability (CV = 2.4–4.4%) with a range of detectability of 0.44–0.95 for a 6-min survey. Density estimates from double-observer surveys had the lowest coefficient of variation (2005 = 3.2%, 2006 = 1.7%), but the removal method also provided precise estimates of density (2005 CV = 3.4%, 2006 CV = 4.8%), and density estimates from distance sampling were less precise (2005 CV = 9.6%, 2006 CV = 7.9%). Assumptions of distance sampling were violated in our study because probability of detecting bobwhites near the observer was <1 or the roadside survey points were not randomly distributed with respect to the birds. Distances also were not consistently recorded by individual members of observer pairs. Although double-observer surveys provided more precise estimates, we recommend using the removal method to estimate detectability and abundance of bobwhites. The removal method provided precise estimates of density and detection probability and requires half the personnel time as double-observer surveys. Furthermore, the likelihood of meeting model assumptions is higher for the removal survey than with independent double-observers. © 2011 The Wildlife Society. 相似文献
19.
The primary and accepted method used to estimate seabird densities at sea from ships is the strip transect method, designed to correct for the effect of random directional bird movement relative to that of the ship. However, this method relies on the critical assumption that all of the birds within the survey strip are detected. We used the distance sampling method from line‐transects to estimate detection probability of a number of species of flying seabirds, and to test whether distance from the ship and bird body size affected detectability. Detection probability decreased from 0.987 (SE=0.029) to 0.269 (SE=0.035) with increasing strip half‐width from 100 to 1400 m. Detection probability also varied between size‐groups of species with strip half‐width. For all size‐groups, this probability was close to 1 for strip half‐width of 100 m, but was 0.869 (SE=0.115), 0.725 (SE=0.096) and 0.693 (SE=0.091) for strip half‐width of 300 m, a typical strip width used in seabird surveys, for respectively large, medium and small size flying seabirds. For larger strip half‐width, detection probability was higher for large sized species, intermediate for medium sized species and lower for smaller sized species. For strip half‐width larger than 100 m we suggest that more attention should be paid to testing the assumption of perfect detectability, because abundance estimates may be underestimated when this assumption is violated. Finally, the effect of the speed of travel of flying seabird on the detection probability was estimated in a simulation study, which suggests that detection probability was underestimated with increasing flying speed. 相似文献
20.
J. David Wiens Robert G. Anthony Eric D. Forsman 《The Journal of wildlife management》2011,75(3):531-538
The range expansion by barred owls (Strix varia) into western North America has raised considerable concern regarding their potential effects on declining northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) populations, yet most information on the occurrence of barred owls in the region is limited to incidental detections during surveys for spotted owls. To address this shortcoming we investigated response behavior, detection probabilities, and landscape occupancy patterns of barred owls in western Oregon, USA, during conspecific versus spotted owl call-broadcast surveys. Subtle differences in barred owl response behavior to conspecific versus spotted owl vocalizations combined with minor procedural differences between species-specific survey protocols led to a sizeable difference in estimated detection probabilities during conspecific (0.66, 95% CI = 0.61–0.71) versus spotted owl (0.48, 95% CI = 0.39–0.56) surveys. We identified 61 territorial pairs of barred owls during repeated surveys of a multi-ownership study area with the probability of occupancy being highest in the structurally diverse mixture of mature and old forests that occurred almost entirely on public lands. Our findings suggest that research and management strategies to address potential competitive interactions between spotted owls and barred owls will require carefully designed, species-specific survey methods that account for erratic response behaviors and imperfect detection of both species. Our sampling methods can be used by forest managers to determine the occurrence and distribution of barred owls with high confidence. © 2011 The Wildlife Society. 相似文献