Onchocerciasis: The Pre-control Association between Prevalence of Palpable Nodules and Skin Microfilariae

Background

The prospect of eliminating onchocerciasis from Africa by mass treatment with ivermectin has been rejuvenated following recent successes in foci in Mali, Nigeria and Senegal. Elimination prospects depend strongly on local transmission conditions and therefore on pre-control infection levels. Pre-control infection levels in Africa have been mapped largely by means of nodule palpation of adult males, a relatively crude method for detecting infection. We investigated how informative pre-control nodule prevalence data are for estimating the pre-control prevalence of microfilariae (mf) in the skin and discuss implications for assessing elimination prospects.

Methods and Findings

We analyzed published data on pre-control nodule prevalence in males aged ≥20 years and mf prevalence in the population aged ≥5 years from 148 African villages. A meta-analysis was performed by means of Bayesian hierarchical multivariate logistic regression, accounting for measurement error in mf and nodule prevalence, bioclimatic zones, and other geographical variation. There was a strong positive correlation between nodule prevalence in adult males and mf prevalence in the general population. In the forest-savanna mosaic area, the pattern in nodule and mf prevalence differed significantly from that in the savanna or forest areas.

Significance

We provide a tool to convert pre-control nodule prevalence in adult males to mf prevalence in the general population, allowing historical data to be interpreted in terms of elimination prospects and disease burden of onchocerciasis. Furthermore, we identified significant geographical variation in mf prevalence and nodule prevalence patterns warranting further investigation of geographical differences in transmission patterns of onchocerciasis.     

Lack of genetic and plumage differentiation in the red-billed quelea Quelea quelea across a migratory divide in southern Africa

A migratory divide usually signals the presence of a geographical region over which other traits, such as morphology and genotypes, also undergo rapid change. A migratory divide has been hypothesized in central southern Africa for the abundant migratory weaver, the red-billed quelea Quelea quelea. The positioning of the divide in the region is based on the patterns of rainfall in the region that stimulate the annual migrations of queleas. Evidence indicates that premigratory queleas near the divide show two distinct preferred directions for migration. We used eight polymorphic microsatellite loci and a range of plumage characters to determine whether there was population structure among red-billed queleas in southern Africa, and specifically whether this structure coincided with the location of the migratory divide. There was no evidence of population genetic structure. An amova revealed no significant differences between samples taken either side of the migratory divide. Similarly, there was no geographical variation in plumage patterns across southern Africa. For both microsatellites and plumage characteristics, the variation that does exist occurs within each sampled site, with little differentiation between sites. We were therefore unable to find any evidence that either plumage or microsatellite genotypes varied in a similar way to migratory direction preference in red-billed queleas in southern Africa. This is perhaps because the migratory divide does not act to separate individuals into populations within which genetic and plumage differentiation can be maintained.     

A morphometric assessment of geographical variation and subspecies in impala

The single species of Aepyceros, Aepyceros melampus (impala), is native to central and southern Africa, from Uganda to South Africa. It inhabits open woodlands, sandy bush country and acacia savannah. This study tested the morphological and geographical variation among specimens of impala and their possible relation with described subspecies. Nineteen skull and horn measurements were taken. A multivariate analysis was used and size and shape were explored. Facial coat patterns were also coded. The results supported four out of five traditionally described subspecies: Aepyceros melampus petersi from Angola/Namibia, Aepyceros melampus melampus from South Africa, Aepyceros melampus suara from East Africa and Aepyceros melampus johnstoni from Zambia and Malawi. We consider Aepyceros melampus rendilis to be a synonym of suara . A revised synopsis is suggested, with comments on the geographical ranges of the subspecies. Skull dimensions also allowed us to estimate the geographical origin and subspecies of some individuals of unknown provenance. Coat patterns showed no clear relation with subspecies or geographic location, with the exception of A. m. petersi .     

Shell shape of the land snail Cornu aspersum in North Africa: unexpected evidence of a phylogeographical splitting

Anatomical and molecular characters used to differentiate populations of the land snail Cornu aspersum (Helix aspersa) exhibit, in the western Mediterranean, definite and concordant patterns of correlation with geography. Scenarios involving Pliocene geological changes and postglacial expansion during the Pleistocene were proposed in previous studies to account for the establishment of this geographical structure. In the present work, we have performed a spatial analysis of variation in shell morphometrics, after the partitioning of the overall variation into size and shape components by means of a principal component-based approach (Cadima and Jolliffe, 1996). In order to know if the same historical events have also structured shell variation, the analysis includes all the populations from North Africa which were investigated for anatomical and molecular surveys. Contrary to shell size, which shows a significant spatial heterogeneity essentially related to environmental pressures, variation in shell shape components splits the populations according to a geographical pattern reflective of hypotheses suggested for molecular markers and genital anatomy. This implies that the selective forces often invoked to explain spatial changes in shell shape are not the deciding factors in the present case. Moreover, within each of the two geographical clusters defined, Mantel correlograms show that the similarity between populations declines according to an isolation by distance model. Because of the different allometric relationships between shell size and genitalia measurements in Western and Eastern entities of North Africa, mechanical constraints, possibly leading to a precopulatory isolation in the contact zone, are involved.     

Evolutionary systematics in African gerbilline rodents of the genus Gerbilliscus: inference from mitochondrial genes

Gerbilliscus has recently been proposed as an endemic African rodent genus distinct from the Asian Tatera. A molecular phylogeny of the genus, including nine species from southern, western and eastern Africa, is presented here based on the analysis of the cytochrome b and 16S mitochondrial genes. With an adequate taxonomic sampling over a wide geographic range, we here provide a clear picture of the phylogenetic relationships between species and species groups in this genus. Three distinct clades were resolved, corresponding to major geographical subdivisions: an eastern clade that possibly diverged first, then a southern and a western clades which appeared later. We suggest two possible hypotheses concerning the dispersal of the genus across Africa, considering also the patterns of karyotypic variation. Finally, we discuss the taxonomic status of G. gambianus and the relationships between Gerbillurus and Gerbilliscus, as previous studies have suggested that the former should be included in the latter. Our data seem to support the synonymy of the two taxa and suggest that Gerbillurus and Gerbilliscus lineages diverged from a common ancestor appeared in eastern Africa.     

Phylogeographical patterns of genetic divergence and speciation in African mole-rats (Family: Bathyergidae)

African mole-rats are subterranean Hystricomorph rodents, distributed widely throughout sub-Saharan Africa, and displaying a range of social and reproductive strategies from solitary dwelling to the 'insect-like' sociality of the naked mole-rat, Heterocephalus glaber. Both molecular systematic studies of Rodentia and the fossil record of bathyergids indicate an ancient origin for the family. This study uses an extensive molecular phylogeny and mitochondrial cytochrome b and 12s rRNA molecular clocks to examine in detail the divergence times, and patterns of speciation of the five extant genera in the context of rift valley formation in Africa. Based on a value of 40-48 million years ago (Myr) for the basal divergence of the family (Heterocephalus), we estimate divergence times of 32-40 Myr for Heliophobius, 20-26 Myr for Georychus/Bathyergus and 12-17 Myr for Cryptomys, the most speciose genus. While early divergences may have been independent of rifting, patterns of distribution of later lineages may have been influenced directly by physical barriers imposed by the formation of the Kenya and Western Rift, and indirectly by accompanying climatic and vegetative changes. Rates of chromosomal evolution and speciation appear to vary markedly within the family. In particular, the genus Cryptomys appears to have undergone an extensive radiation and shows the widest geographical distribution. Of the two distinct clades within this genus, one exhibits considerable karyotypic variation while the other does not, despite comparatively high levels of sequence divergence between some taxa. These different patterns of speciation observed both within the family and within the genus Cryptomys may have been a result of environmental changes associated with rifting.     

Connecting geographical distributions with population processes

The geographical distribution of a species is determined by a large number of complex processes operating over spatial scales spanning 10 orders of magnitude. Patterns in population processes have been described at numerous scales. We show that two patterns, measured at different scales, jointly allow us to infer heretofore unknown patterns in the distribution of demographic patterns across the geographical range of a species. The resulting model describes three fundamentally different modes of geographical variation in vital rates of populations. One mode is characterized by a positive nonlinear relationship between the maximum rate of population growth and the intensity of intraspecific competition across a geographical range. That is, populations that grow rapidly are also those where individuals experience the greatest per capita negative effect of the presence of other individuals. The second mode of behaviour is described by a negative nonlinear relationship between maximum growth rate and density dependence. Under this scenario, populations with low capacity to grow rapidly have highest intensities of intraspecific competitive effects. A third mode of behaviour is characterized by a weak positive relationship between growth rate and intraspecific competition, with very little geographical variation in maximum growth rate. A survey of studies relating temporal means and variances in population abundance for a variety of species indicate that the second mode of geographical variation in population dynamics across species ranges is the most common, though a few species appear to be characterized by the third mode.     

New Genetic and Linguistic Analyses Show Ancient Human Influence on Baobab Evolution and Distribution in Australia

This study investigates the role of human agency in the gene flow and geographical distribution of the Australian baobab, Adansonia gregorii. The genus Adansonia is a charismatic tree endemic to Africa, Madagascar, and northwest Australia that has long been valued by humans for its multiple uses. The distribution of genetic variation in baobabs in Africa has been partially attributed to human-mediated dispersal over millennia, but this relationship has never been investigated for the Australian species. We combined genetic and linguistic data to analyse geographic patterns of gene flow and movement of word-forms for A. gregorii in the Aboriginal languages of northwest Australia. Comprehensive assessment of genetic diversity showed weak geographic structure and high gene flow. Of potential dispersal vectors, humans were identified as most likely to have enabled gene flow across biogeographic barriers in northwest Australia. Genetic-linguistic analysis demonstrated congruence of gene flow patterns and directional movement of Aboriginal loanwords for A. gregorii. These findings, along with previous archaeobotanical evidence from the Late Pleistocene and Holocene, suggest that ancient humans significantly influenced the geographic distribution of Adansonia in northwest Australia.     

Morphological variation of major human populations based on nonmetric dental traits

The patterns of inter- and intra-regional variation among 12 major geographical groups from around the world were investigated based on 15 nonmetric dental traits. The R-matrix method was applied using a pooled within-group variance-covariance matrix estimated with the maximum likelihood method (tetrachoric correlation matrix) and the threshold value for each trait estimated by univariate probit analysis. Using average heritability rates that range from 0.40 to 1.00, the inter-regional variation represented by Fst falls between 7.19% and 16.23% of the total variance. This range of variation is compatible with those obtained by genetic, craniometric, and odontometric data. Subsaharan Africans show the largest intra-regional diversity among the groups compared. The degree of intra-regional variation shows, moreover, rough clinalities from subsaharan Africa to peripheral regions. The relationship between regional variation and geographic distance from subsaharan Africa supports serial bottlenecks and the founder effect of ancient populations originating in Africa. The variation of East/Northeast Asians is relatively large, suggesting a complex population history such as possible earlier divergence and multiple migrations from outside sources. The present findings are in agreement with both the recent African model for the origin of anatomically modern humans and the current scenario for human migration history suggested by genetic analyses.     

A serial founder effect model for human settlement out of Africa

The increasing abundance of human genetic data has shown that the geographical patterns of worldwide genetic diversity are best explained by human expansion out of Africa. This expansion is modelled well by prolonged migration from a single origin in Africa with multiple subsequent serial founding events. We discuss a new simulation model for the serial founder effect out of Africa and compare it with results from previous studies. Unlike previous models, we distinguish colonization events from the continued exchange of people between occupied territories as a result of mating. We conduct a search through parameter space to estimate the range of parameter values that best explain key statistics from published data on worldwide variation in microsatellites. The range of parameters we use is chosen to be compatible with an out-of-Africa migration at 50-60Kyr ago and archaeo-ethno-demographic information. In addition to a colonization rate of 0.09-0.18, for an acceptable fit to the published microsatellite data, incorporation into existing models of exchange between neighbouring populations is essential, but at a very low rate. A linear decay of genetic diversity with geographical distance from the origin of expansion could apply to any species, especially if it moved recently into new geographical niches.     

The implications of different species concepts for describing biodiversity patterns and assessing conservation needs for African birds

It has been suggested that switching from the widely used Biological Species Concept to a Phylogenetic Species Concept, would result in the appearance of hitherto neglected patterns of endemism. The problem has mainly been analyzed with respect to endemic taxa and for rather limited geographical regions, but will here be analysed for the entire resident avifauna of sub-Saharan Africa. A database of African bird distributions was re-edited to create two new datasets representing 1572 biological species and 2098 phylogenetic species. Species richness patterns were virtually identical with the two taxonomies, and only subtle changes were found in the geographical variation in range-size rarity sum. However, there were some differences in the most range-restricted species, with increased complexity of long-recognized centres of endemism. Overall, then, the large-scale biogeographic patterns are robust to changes in species concepts. This reflects the aggregated nature of endemism, with certain areas acting as "species pumps" and large intervening areas being characterised by a predominance of widespread species which distribute themselves in accordance with contemporary environmental conditions. The percentages of phylogenetic and threatened species captured in a BSC near-minimum set of 64 grid-cells and a PSC near-maximum set, with the same number of grid-cells, are very similar.     

Genetic diversity of donkey populations from the putative centers of domestication

Donkey domestication drastically changed ancient transport systems in Africa and Asia, enabling overland circulation of people and goods and influencing the organization of early cities and pastoral societies. Genetic studies based on mtDNA have pointed to the African wild ass as the most probable ancestor of the domestic donkey, but questions regarding its center of origin remain unanswered. Endeavoring to pinpoint the geographical origin of domestic donkey, we assessed levels and patterns of genetic diversity at 15 microsatellite loci from eight populations, representing its three hypothesized centers of origin: northeast Africa, the Near East and the Arabian Peninsula. Additionally, we compared the donkey genotypes with those from their wild relative, the African wild ass (Equus africanus somaliensis) to visualize patterns of differentiation among wild and domestic individuals. Obtained results revealed limited variation in levels of unbiased expected heterozygosity across populations in studied geographic regions (ranging from 0.637 in northeast Africa to 0.679 in the Near East). Both allelic richness (Ar) and private allelic richness presented considerably higher values in northeast Africa and in the Arabian Peninsula. By looking at variation at the country level, for each region, we were able to identify Sudan and Yemen as the countries possessing higher allelic richness and, cumulatively, Yemen also presented higher values for private allelic richness. Our results support previously proposed northeast Africa as a putative center of origin, but the high levels of unique diversity in Yemen opens the possibility of considering this region as yet another center of origin for this species.     

Reconstructing the history of maize streak virus strain a dispersal to reveal diversification hot spots and its origin in southern Africa

Maize streak virus strain A (MSV-A), the causal agent of maize streak disease, is today one of the most serious biotic threats to African food security. Determining where MSV-A originated and how it spread transcontinentally could yield valuable insights into its historical emergence as a crop pathogen. Similarly, determining where the major extant MSV-A lineages arose could identify geographical hot spots of MSV evolution. Here, we use model-based phylogeographic analyses of 353 fully sequenced MSV-A isolates to reconstruct a plausible history of MSV-A movements over the past 150 years. We show that since the probable emergence of MSV-A in southern Africa around 1863, the virus spread transcontinentally at an average rate of 32.5 km/year (95% highest probability density interval, 15.6 to 51.6 km/year). Using distinctive patterns of nucleotide variation caused by 20 unique intra-MSV-A recombination events, we tentatively classified the MSV-A isolates into 24 easily discernible lineages. Despite many of these lineages displaying distinct geographical distributions, it is apparent that almost all have emerged within the past 4 decades from either southern or east-central Africa. Collectively, our results suggest that regular analysis of MSV-A genomes within these diversification hot spots could be used to monitor the emergence of future MSV-A lineages that could affect maize cultivation in Africa.     

Genotypic variation in ''Camphylobacter upsliensis'' from blood and faeces of patients in differeen on countries

Chromosomal DNA from 62 strains of 'Campylobacter upsaliensis' from blood and faecal specimens of patients in Australia, Belgium, South Africa and England, and seven dog isolates from England and Sweden were examined. DNA base compositions of 21 strains were 35 +/- 1 mol% G + C. Electrophoresis of HaeIII DNA digests gave patterns comprising about 20 well resolved bands of 2 to 10 kb, and visual comparisons revealed considerable genomic variation with 26 different digest patterns identifiable. Differences were evident between genomic DNA patterns of strains from different geographical locations, and between human and dog strains. Each set of human strains from the four geographical locations was comprised of 5 to 8 DNA pattern types. The HaeIII DNA digest patterns were generally more discriminatory than the HindIII, PvuII, CfoI, SmaI and XhoI patterns although some DNAs (12%) were not cut with HaeIII. We conclude the method provides an excellent basis for typing most strains of 'C. upsaliensis'.     

Geographical and morphological variation within and between colour phases in Coris julis (L. 1758), a protogynous marine fish

The possible differences between sexes in patterns of morphological variation in geographical space have been explored only in gonochorist freshwater species. We explored patterns of body shape variation in geographical space in a marine sequential hermaphrodite species, Coris julis (L. 1758), analyzing variation both within and between colour phases, through the use of geometric morphometrics and spatially‐explicit statistical analyses. We also tested for the association of body shape with two environmental variables: temperature and chlorophyll a concentration, as obtained from time‐series of satellite‐derived data. Both colour phases showed a significant morphological variation in geographical space and patterns of variation divergent between phases. Although the morphological variation was qualitatively similar, individuals in the initial colour phase showed a more marked variation than individuals in the terminal phase. Body shape showed a weak but significant correlation with environmental variables, which was more pronounced in primary specimens. © 2011 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2011, 104 , 148–162.     

Modelling the dynamic biogeography of the wildcat: implications for taxonomy and conservation

There is still no clear consensus on how to relate geographical variation in the morphology and genetics of the globally widespread wildcat Felis silvestris to its taxonomy and systematics. Reconstructing the dynamic biogeography of the wildcat provides insight into how current geographical patterns of morphological and molecular variation may have developed. A geographical information system was used to infer climate-change influences using a deduced distribution model (DDM) to reconstruct the wildcat's geographical distribution at four points in time from the Last Glacial Maximum [LGM; 18 000 years before present ( bp )] until today. The DDM for 9000  bp , when mean global temperatures were 2 °C more than today, provides insight into how current global warming will affect the wildcat's distribution 50–100 years into future. Modelled distributions were assessed against known geographical barriers or unsuitable habitats, which may have separated populations and led to known morphological and genetic divergence. The DDM_today corresponds well with known contemporary wildcat distribution records, except where wildcats would be expected to be excluded (e.g. high human population densities, potential competitors, inaccessible islands). The DDM_today also corresponds closely with the results of recent studies on skull morphometrics and phylogeography, which support hypothesized colonizations of Africa and Asia from Europe during the late Pleistocene. Although DDM palaeo-distributions are more uncertain, they correspond to expected dramatic declines in northern Eurasia during the LGM, and significant distributional decline in central Asia, the Sahara and southern Africa, owing to increased aridity during climate cooling. From the DDM₉₀₀₀ model moderate global warming is hypothesized to impact minimally on wildcats, except in the Middle East and south-west Asia.     

Ecological correlates of geographical range occupancy in North American birds

Aim  The degree to which a species is predictably encountered within its range varies tremendously across species. Understanding why some species occur less frequently within their range than others has important consequences for conservation and for analyses of ecological patterns based on range maps. We examined whether patterns in geographical range occupancy can be explained by species-level traits.
Location  North America.
Methods  We used survey data from 1993 to 2002 from the North American Breeding Bird Survey along with digital range maps produced by NatureServe to calculate range occupancy for 298 species of terrestrial birds. We tested whether species traits explained variation in range occupancy values using linear regression techniques.
Results  We found three species traits that together explained more than half of the variation in range occupancy. Population density and niche breadth were positively correlated with occupancy, while niche position was negatively correlated with occupancy.
Main conclusions  Our results suggest that high range occupancy will occur in species that are common at sites on which they occur, that tolerate a relatively wide range of ecological conditions and that tend to have ranges centred on areas with common environmental conditions. Furthermore, it appears that niche-based characteristics may explain patterns of distribution and abundance from local habitats up to the scale of geographical ranges.     

Environmental factors, regional body size distributions and spatial variation in body size of local avian assemblages

Aim To determine how well variation in median body size of avian assemblages is predicted by (1) the environmental models usually employed in analyses of Bergmann's rule and (2) random sampling from the regional body size frequency distribution. If body size frequency distributions of local assemblages represent a random sample of a regional frequency distribution, then geographical variation in body sizes of assemblages might be a consequence of the determinants of spatial variation in species richness rather than direct influences on body size per se. Location Southern Africa. Methods Median body masses (as a measure of body size) of avian assemblages were calculated for quarter‐degree grid cells across South Africa and Lesotho. The relationship between median body mass and four environmental variables (minimum and maximum monthly temperatures, precipitation and seasonality in the normalized difference vegetation index, as a measure of seasonality in productivity) was examined using general linear models first without taking spatial autocorrelation into account, and then accounting for it by fitting an exponential spatial covariance structure. Model fit was assessed using the Akaike information criterion and Akaike weights. At each species richness value, random assemblages were sampled by either drawing species randomly from the regional body mass frequency distribution, or drawing species from the regional body mass frequency distribution with a probability proportional to their geographical distribution in the area. The ability of randomizations to predict actual body masses was examined using two‐tailed Fisher exact tests. Results Seasonality in productivity was the only environmental variable that remained a significant predictor of body mass variation in spatially explicit models, though the positive relationship was weak. When species richness was included in the models it remained the only significant predictor of size variation. Randomizations predicted median body mass poorly at low species richness, but well at high richness. Main conclusions Environmental models that have previously been proposed explain little of the variation in body mass across avian assemblages in South Africa. However, much of the variation in the median mass of assemblages could be predicted by randomly drawing species from the regional body mass frequency distribution, particularly using randomizations in which all species were drawn from the regional body mass frequency distribution with equal probability and at high species richness values. This outcome emphasizes the need to consider null expectations in investigations of the geographical variation in body size together with the probable environmental mechanisms underlying spatial variation in average size. Moreover, it suggests that in the South African avifauna, spatial variation in the body sizes of assemblages may be determined indirectly by the factors that influence geographical variation in species richness.     

The epidemiology of yellow fever in Africa

Yellow fever (YF) is still a major public heath problem, particularly in Africa, despite the availability of a very efficacious vaccine. The World Health Organization estimates that there are 200,000 cases of YF annually, including 30,000 deaths, of which over 90% occur in Africa. In the past 15 years, the number of YF cases has increased tremendously, with most of the YF activity in West Africa. This increase in YF activity is in part due to a breakdown in YF vaccination and mosquito control programs. Five genotypes of YF virus have been found in Africa, and each genotype circulates in a distinct geographical region. West Africa genotype I, found in Nigeria and surrounding areas, is associated with frequent epidemics, whereas the three genotypes in East and Central Africa are in regions where YF outbreaks are rare. Other factors, including genetic and behavioral variation among vector species, are also thought to play a role in the epidemiology of YF in Africa.