Quantifying the anthropocene loss of bioindicators for an early industrial region: an equitable baseline for biodiversity restoration

Directly observed biodiversity data have a limited temporal span of c. 100–150 years. Consequently, for a region such as temperate Western Europe, our knowledge of species distributions is restricted to a period impacted by the process of massive industrialisation. There is a danger of shifted baselines in terms of conservation policy and targets. Here we present a novel source of high resolution archaeobotanical information for lichen epiphyte bioindicators; these data can reconstruct species distributions for the pre-industrial European landscape. We compare these historic records to a species’ post-industrial distribution and environmental response, quantifying the spatial trend and causes of biodiversity loss. The results indicate regional extinction rates of c. 76% in response to habitat loss and industrial pollution. We propose pre-industrial baselines that would better represent biodiversity restoration for temperate regions (net gain), and which would be equitable with advocacy for species and habitat protection in the present-day tropics (no net loss).     

Genetic diversity and structure of an endemic and critically endangered stream river salamander (Caudata: Ambystoma leorae) in Mexico

Small or isolated populations are highly susceptible to stochastic events. They are prone and vulnerable to random demographic or environmental fluctuations that could lead to extinction due to the loss of alleles through genetic drift and increased inbreeding. We studied Ambystoma leorae an endemic and critically threatened species. We analyzed the genetic diversity and structure, effective population size, presence of bottlenecks and inbreeding coefficient of 96 individuals based on nine microsatellite loci. We found high levels of genetic diversity expressed as heterozygosity (H_o = 0.804, H_e = 0.613, H_e* = 0.626 and H_Nei = 0.622). The population presents few alleles (4–9 per locus) and genotypes (3–14 per locus) compared with other mole salamanders species. We identified three genetically differentiated subpopulations with a significant level of genetic structure (F_ST = 0.021, R_ST = 0.044 y D_est = 0.010, 95 % CI). We also detected a reduction signal in population size and evidence of a genetic bottleneck (M = 0.367). The effective population size is small (Ne = 45.2), but similar to another mole salamanders with restricted distributions or with recently fragmented habitat. The inbreeding coefficient levels detected are low (F_IS = ?0.619–0.102) as is gene flow. Despite, high levels of genetic diversity A. leorae is critically endangered because it is a small isolated population.     

Distinguished primatologist address—moving from advocacy to activism: Changing views of primate field research and conservation over the past 40 years

Field studies of wild nonhuman primates have grown exponentially over the past 40 years and our knowledge of primate behavior, ecology, and social, and mating systems has expanded greatly. However, we are facing a major extinction crisis with some 60% of all primate species listed as threatened and more than 75% of species with declining populations. The primary factor driving primate population decline is human population increase, which over the past 50 years has resulted in the unsustainable conversion and degradation of natural landscapes for industrial agriculture, the production of nonagricultural commodities for international trade, pastureland for cattle, dam construction, fossil fuel exploration, mining, and the construction of road networks and infrastructure to support large urban centers. Recent ecological modeling predicts that by the end of the century, the four primate‐richest countries in the world will lose 32–78% of their existing primate habitat to agricultural expansion, and nine of the top 15 primate‐richest countries are expected to have 80–100% of their primate species extinct or threatened with extinction. If we are going to save the world's primates, the time to act is now! Not only should all primate field research include a strong conservation component, but in addition we must actively join with our professional societies, zoos and research facilities, universities, conservation organizations, concerned business leaders, global citizens, like‐minded political leaders, and grassroots organizations to inform, demand and direct governments, multinational corporations, and international organizations to engage in transformational change to protect biodiversity and seek environmental justice against those entities that actively destroy our planet. As the chief academic discipline dedicated to the study of primates, we must organize and collectively move from being advocates for primate conservation to becoming activists for primate conservation. This is a call to action.     

The effect of landscape features on population genetic structure in Yunnan snub-nosed monkeys (Rhinopithecus bieti) implies an anthropogenic genetic discontinuity

The Tibetan Plateau is one of the top 10 biodiversity hotspots in the world and acts as a modern harbour for many rare species because of its relatively pristine state. In this article, we report a landscape genetic study on the Yunnan snub-nosed monkey ( Rhinopithecus bieti ), a primate endemic to the Tibetan Plateau. DNA was extracted from blood, tissue and fecal samples of 135 wild individuals representing 11 out of 15 extant monkey groups. Ten microsatellite loci were used to characterize patterns of genetic diversity. The most striking feature of the population structure is the presence of five subpopulations with distinct genetic backgrounds and unique spatial regions. The population structure of R. bieti appears to be shaped by anthropogenic landscape features as gene flow between subpopulations is strongly impeded by arable land, highways and human habitation. A partial Mantel test showed that 36.23% ( r  =   0.51, P  =   0.01) of the genetic distance was explained by habitat gaps after controlling for the effect of geographical distance. Only 4.92% of the genetic distance was explained by geographical distance in the partial Mantel test, and no significant correlation was found. Estimation of population structure history indicates that environmental change during the last glacial maximum and human impacts since the Holocene, or a combination of both, have shaped the observed population structure of R. bieti . Increasing human activity on the Plateau, especially that resulting in habitat fragmentation, is becoming an important factor in shaping the genetic structure and evolutionary potential of species inhabiting this key ecosystem.     

Integration of genetic and demographic data to assess population risk in a continuously distributed species

The identification and demographic assessment of biologically meaningful populations is fundamental to species’ ecology and management. Although genetic tools are used frequently to identify populations, studies often do not incorporate demographic data to understand their respective population trends. We used genetic data to define subpopulations in a continuously distributed species. We assessed demographic independence and variation in population trends across the distribution. Additionally, we identified potential barriers to gene flow among subpopulations. We sampled greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) leks from across their range (≈175,000 Km²) in Wyoming and amplified DNA at 14 microsatellite loci for 1761 samples. Subsequently, we assessed population structure in unrelated individuals (n = 872) by integrating results from multiple Bayesian clustering approaches and used the boundaries to inform our assessment of long-term population trends and lek activity over the period of 1995–2013. We identified four genetic clusters of which two northern ones showed demographic independence from the others. Trends in population size for the northwest subpopulation were statistically different from the other three genetic clusters and the northeast and southwest subpopulations demonstrated a general trend of increasing proportion of inactive leks over time. Population change from 1996 to 2012 suggested population growth in the southern subpopulations and decline, or neutral, change in the northern subpopulations. We suggest that sage-grouse subpopulations in northern Wyoming are at greater risk of extirpation than the southern subpopulations due to smaller census and effective population sizes and higher variability within subpopulations. Our research is an example of incorporating genetic and demographic data and provides guidance on the identification of subpopulations of conservation concern.     

Forecasting species ranges by statistical estimation of ecological niches and spatial population dynamics

Aim The study and prediction of species–environment relationships is currently mainly based on species distribution models. These purely correlative models neglect spatial population dynamics and assume that species distributions are in equilibrium with their environment. This causes biased estimates of species niches and handicaps forecasts of range dynamics under environmental change. Here we aim to develop an approach that statistically estimates process‐based models of range dynamics from data on species distributions and permits a more comprehensive quantification of forecast uncertainties. Innovation We present an approach for the statistical estimation of process‐based dynamic range models (DRMs) that integrate Hutchinson's niche concept with spatial population dynamics. In a hierarchical Bayesian framework the environmental response of demographic rates, local population dynamics and dispersal are estimated conditional upon each other while accounting for various sources of uncertainty. The method thus: (1) jointly infers species niches and spatiotemporal population dynamics from occurrence and abundance data, and (2) provides fully probabilistic forecasts of future range dynamics under environmental change. In a simulation study, we investigate the performance of DRMs for a variety of scenarios that differ in both ecological dynamics and the data used for model estimation. Main conclusions Our results demonstrate the importance of considering dynamic aspects in the collection and analysis of biodiversity data. In combination with informative data, the presented framework has the potential to markedly improve the quantification of ecological niches, the process‐based understanding of range dynamics and the forecasting of species responses to environmental change. It thereby strengthens links between biogeography, population biology and theoretical and applied ecology.     

Patchy population structure in a short-distance migrant: evidence from genetic and demographic data

Species often occur in subdivided populations as a consequence of spatial heterogeneity of the habitat. To describe the spatial organization of subpopulations, existing theory proposes three main population models: patchy population, metapopulation and isolated populations. These models differ in their predicted levels of connectivity among subpopulations, and in the risk that a subpopulation will go extinct. However, spatially discrete subpopulations are commonly considered to be organized as metapopulations, even though explicit tests of metapopulation assumptions are rare. Here, we test predictions of the three models on the basis of demographic and genetic data, a combined approach so far surprisingly little used in mobile organisms. From 2002 to 2005, we studied nine subpopulations of the wetland-restricted reed bunting ( Emberiza schoeniclus ) in the southeastern part of the Canton Zurich (Switzerland), from which local declines of this species have been reported. Here, wetlands are as small as 2.7 ha and separated through intensively used agricultural landscapes. Demographic data consisted of dispersal of colour-banded individuals among subpopulations, immigration rates and extinction-/recolonization dynamics. Genetic data were based on the distribution of genetic variability and gene flow among subpopulations derived from the analysis of nine microsatellite loci. Both demographic and genetic data revealed that the patchy population model best described the spatial organization of reed bunting subpopulations. High levels of dispersal among subpopulations, high immigration into the patchy population, and genetic admixture suggested little risk of extinction of both subpopulations and the entire patchy population. This study exemplifies the idea that spatially discrete subpopulations may be organized in ways other than a metapopulation, and hence has implications for the conservation of subpopulations and species.     

Individual genetic diversity correlates with the size and spatial isolation of natal colonies in a bird metapopulation

The genetic consequences of small population size and isolation are of central concern in both population and conservation biology. Organisms with a metapopulation structure generally show effective population sizes that are much smaller than the number of mature individuals and this can reduce genetic diversity especially in small sized and isolated subpopulations. Here, we examine the association between heterozygosity and the size and spatial isolation of natal colonies in a metapopulation of lesser kestrels (Falco naumanni). For this purpose, we used capture-mark-recapture data to determine the patterns of immigration into the studied colonies, and 11 highly polymorphic microsatellite markers that allowed us to estimate genetic diversity of locally born individuals. We found that individuals born in smaller and more isolated colonies were genetically less diverse. These colonies received a lower number of immigrants, supporting the idea that both reduced gene flow and small population size are responsible for the genetic pattern observed. Our results are particularly intriguing because the lesser kestrel is a vagile and migratory species with great movement capacity and dispersal potential. Overall, this study provides evidence of the association between individual heterozygosity and the size and spatial isolation of natal colonies in a highly mobile vertebrate showing relatively frequent dispersal and low genetic differentiation among local subpopulations.     

Low genetic diversity and population connectivity fuel vulnerability to climate change for the Tertiary relict pine Pinus bungeana

Endemic species are important components of regional biodiversity and hold the key to understanding local adaptation and evolutionary processes that shape species distributions. This study investigated the biogeographic history of a relict conifer Pinus bungeana Zucc. ex Endl. confined to central China. We examined genetic diversity in P. bungeana using genotyping-by-sequencing and chloroplast and mitochondrial DNA markers. We performed spatial and temporal inference of recent genetic and demographic changes, and dissected the impacts of geography and environmental gradients on population differentiation. We then projected P. bungeana's risk of decline under future climates. We found extremely low nucleotide diversity (average π 0.0014), and strong population structure (global F_ST 0.234) even at regional scales, reflecting long-term isolation in small populations. The species experienced severe bottlenecks in the early Pliocene and continued to decline in the Pleistocene in the western distribution, whereas the east expanded recently. Local adaptation played a small (8%) but significant role in population diversity. Low genetic diversity in fragmented populations makes the species highly vulnerable to climate change, particularly in marginal and relict populations. We suggest that conservation efforts should focus on enhancing gene pool and population growth through assisted migration within each genetic cluster to reduce the risk of further genetic drift and extinction.     

Le Osservazioni Fitofenologiche Della Rete Italiana Nel 1929 (Annata VIII)

Abstract

Correlative techniques for estimating environmental requirements of species – variably termed ecological niche modeling or species distribution modeling – are becoming very popular tools for ecologists and biogeographers in understanding diverse aspects of biodiversity. These tools, however, are frequently applied in ways that do not fit well into knowledge frameworks in population ecology and biogeography, or into the realities of sampling biodiversity over real-world landscapes. We offer 10 “fixes” – adjustments to typical methodologies that will take into account population ecological and biogeographic frameworks to produce better models.     

Present genetic structure revealed by microsatellites reflects recent history of the Finnish moose (Alces alces)

Genetic structures of Holarctic species are largely formed by Pleistocene colonisation history, dispersal capacity and interactions between biotic and abiotic factors, even though the human impact can also be significant. The Holarctic moose (Alces alces) arrived in Fennoscandia around 9,000–8,000 years ago, and it has been exploited by humans ever since. During the last 400 years, the Finnish moose population has suffered from several population declines, and even local and regional extirpations have occurred. The purpose of the present study is to describe the genetic variation and population structure of the Finnish moose in order to clarify how historical events and human exploitation have influenced the present-day genetic patterns. Altogether 130 moose individuals from seven sampling sites in Finland were analysed at ten microsatellite loci. A variety of population genetic and coalescent-based methods was applied. The Finnish moose population was found to be divided into southern and northern subpopulations with additional lower hierarchical genetic structure. The estimated time of divergence between these two subpopulations was about 96–238 years ago. In addition, an isolation-by-distance pattern was discovered.     

Temporal and spatial changes in macrozoobenthos diversity in Poyang Lake Basin,China

Poyang Lake plays a significant role in maintaining and replenishing the macrozoobenthos biodiversity in the middle Yangtze River. However, due to human activities and natural factors, the habitat of Poyang Lake has been seriously degraded, resulting in a decline in macrozoobenthos biodiversity. Here, we analyzed the effect of human activity and environmental elements change on the diversity of macrozoobenthos based on a systematic investigation of Poyang Lake Basin in 2016–2017. The current species richness, density, and biomass of macrozoobenthos were lower than those in the historical period. At the same time, the community structure of the macrozoobenthos assemblage exhibits significant temporal and spatial differences. In addition, the spatial turnover component was the main contribution to beta diversity, which indicated that a number of protected areas would be necessary to conserve the biodiversity of macrozoobenthos. Water depth, dissolved oxygen, water velocity, and chlorophyll‐a were significantly correlated with macrozoobenthos distributions and assemblage structure based on RDA. These results indicated that human activities have seriously destroyed the macrozoobenthos habitat and led to the decline in macrozoobenthos diversity. Therefore, habitat restoration and the conservation of macrozoobenthos have become urgent in Poyang Lake Basin, and an integrated management plan should be developed and effectively implemented.     

Spatial genetic analysis of the grass snake,Natrix natrix (Squamata: Colubridae), in an intensively used agricultural landscape

Both the conversion of natural habitats to farmland and efforts at increasing the yield of existing crops contribute to a decline in biodiversity. As a consequence of land conversion, specialised species are restricted to remnants of original habitat patches, which are frequently isolated. This may lead to a genetic differentiation of the subpopulations. We used seven microsatellite markers to examine the genetic population structure of the grass snake, Natrix natrix (Linnaeus, 1758), sampled in remnants of pristine habitat embedded in an intensively used agricultural landscape in north‐western Switzerland. The study area, a former wetland, has been drained and gradually converted into an agricultural plain in the last century, reducing the pristine habitat to approximately 1% of the entire area. The grass snake feeds almost entirely on amphibians, and is therefore associated with wetlands. In Central Europe, the species shows severe decline, most probably as a result of wetland drainage and decrease of amphibian populations. We found no genetically distinct grass snake populations in the study area covering 90 km². This implies that there is an exchange of individuals between small remnants of original habitat. Thus, gene flow may prevent any genetic differentiation of subpopulations distributed over a relatively large area. Our results show that a specialized snake species can persist in an intensively used agricultural landscape, provided that suitable habitat patches are interconnected. © 2010 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2010, 101 , 51–58.     

Functional biodiversity of macroinvertebrate assemblages along major ecological gradients of boreal headwater streams

1. Biodiversity–environment relationships are increasingly well‐understood in the context of species richness and species composition, whereas other aspects of biodiversity, including variability in functional diversity (FD), have received rather little rigorous attention. For streams, most studies to date have examined either taxonomic assemblage patterns or have experimentally addressed the importance of species richness for ecosystem functioning. 2. I examined the relationships of the functional biodiversity of stream macroinvertebrates to major environmental and spatial gradients across 111 boreal headwater streams in Finland. Functional biodiversity encompassed functional richness (FR – the number of functional groups derived from a combination of functional feeding groups and habit trait groups), FD – the number of functional groups and division of individuals among these groups, and functional evenness (FE – the division of individuals among functional groups). Furthermore, functional structure (FS) comprised the composition and abundance of functional groups at each site. 3. FR increased with increasing pH, with additional variation related to moss cover, total nitrogen, water colour and substratum particle size. FD similarly increased with increasing pH and decreased with increasing canopy cover. FE decreased with increasing canopy cover and water colour. Significant variation in FS was attributable to pH, stream width, moss cover, substratum particle size, nitrogen, water colour with the dominant pattern in FS being related to the increase of shredder‐sprawlers and the decrease of scraper‐swimmers in acidic conditions. 4. In regression analysis and redundancy analysis, variation in functional biodiversity was not only related to local environmental factors, but a considerable proportion of variability was also attributable to spatial patterning of environmental variables and pure spatial gradients. For FR, 23.4% was related to pure environmental effects, 15.0% to shared environmental and spatial effects and 8.0% to spatial trends. For FD, 13.8% was attributable to environmental effects, 15.2% to shared environmental and spatial effects and 5% to spatial trends. For FE, 9.0% was related to environmental variables, 12.7% to shared effects of environmental and spatial variables and 4.5% to spatial variables. For FS, 13.5% was related to environmental effects, 16.9% to shared environmental and spatial effects and 15.4% to spatial trends. 5. Given that functional biodiversity should portray variability in ecosystem functioning, one might expect to find functionally rather differing ecosystems at the opposite ends of major environmental gradients (e.g. acidity, stream size). However, the degree to which variation in the functional biodiversity of stream macroinvertebrates truly portrays variability in ecosystem functioning is difficult to judge because species traits, such as feeding roles and habit traits, are themselves strongly affected by the habitat template. 6. If functional characteristics show strong responses to natural environmental gradients, they also are likely to do so to anthropogenic environmental changes, including changes in habitat structure, organic inputs and acidifying elements. However, given the considerable degree of spatial structure in functional biodiversity, one should not expect that only the local environment and anthropogenic changes therein are responsible for this variability. Rather, the spatial context, as well as natural variability along environmental gradients, should also be explicitly considered in applied research.     

Conservation of Chinese Theaceae species under future climate and land use changes

Aim

Climate and land use changes are two major pervasive and growing global causes of rapid changes in the distribution patterns of biodiversity, challenging the future effectiveness of protected areas (PAs), which were mainly designed based on a static view of biodiversity. Therefore, evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas for protecting the species threatened by climate and land use change is critical for future biodiversity conservation.

Location

China.

Methods

Here, using distributions of 200 Chinese Theaceae species and ensemble species distribution models, we identified species threatened by future climate and land use change (i.e. species with predicted loss of suitable habitat ≥30%) under scenarios incorporating climate change, land use change and dispersal. We then estimate the richness distribution patterns of threatened species and identify priority conservation areas and conservation gaps of the current PA network.

Results

Our results suggest that 36.30%–51.85% of Theaceae species will be threatened by future climate and land use conditions and that although the threatened species are mainly distributed at low latitudes in China under both current and future periods, the mean richness of the threatened species per grid cell will decline by 0.826–3.188 species by the 2070s. Moreover, we found that these priority conservation areas are highly fragmented and that the current PA network only covers 14.21%–20.87% of the ‘areas worth exploring’ and 6.91%–7.91% of the ‘areas worth attention’.

Main Conclusions

Our findings highlight the necessity of establishing new protected areas and ecological corridors in priority conservation areas to protect the threatened species. Moreover, our findings also highlight the importance of taking into consideration the potential threatened species under future climate and land use conditions when designating priority areas for biodiversity conservation.     

Determinants of palm species distributions across Africa: the relative roles of climate,non‐climatic environmental factors,and spatial constraints

Most of the Earth's biodiversity resides in the tropics. However, a comprehensive understanding of which factors control range limits of tropical species is still lacking. Climate is often thought to be the predominant range‐determining mechanism at large spatial scales. Alternatively, species’ ranges may be controlled by soil or other environmental factors, or by non‐environmental factors such as biotic interactions, dispersal barriers, intrinsic population dynamics, or time‐limited expansion from place of origin or past refugia. How species ranges are controlled is of key importance for predicting their responses to future global change. Here, we use a novel implementation of species distribution modelling (SDM) to assess the degree to which African continental‐scale species distributions in a keystone tropical group, the palms (Arecaceae), are controlled by climate, non‐climatic environmental factors, or non‐environmental spatial constraints. A comprehensive data set on African palm species occurrences was assembled and analysed using the SDM algorithm Maxent in combination with climatic and non‐climatic environmental predictors (habitat, human impact), as well as spatial eigenvector mapping (spatial filters). The best performing models always included spatial filters, suggesting that palm species distributions are always to some extent limited by non‐environmental constraints. Models which included climate provided significantly better predictions than models that included only non‐climatic environmental predictors, the latter having no discernible effect beyond the climatic control. Hence, at the continental scale, climate constitutes the only strong environmental control of palm species distributions in Africa. With regard to the most important climatic predictors of African palm distributions, water‐related factors were most important for 25 of the 29 species analysed. The strong response of palm distributions to climate in combination with the importance of non‐environmental spatial constraints suggests that African palms will be sensitive to future climate changes, but that their ability to track suitable climatic conditions will be spatially constrained.     

Demography of Amboseli baboons, 1963–1983

Repeated censuses of a population of yellow baboons (Papio cynocephalus) in Amboseli National Park, Kenya, revealed a decrease from over 2,500 animals in 1963–1964 to 123 individuals in 1979, or from a density of about 73 to 1.8 baboons per km² over a 15-year period. Median group size decreased from 43 in 1964 to 27 in 1979. The largest and smallest groups declined the most; groups near the median have maintained fairly stable size and age distributions. The population seemed to have stabilized by 1983 at approximately 150 animals in six groups (median group size 28; density 2.2/km²). Although baboon population and group size appeared to be stable during 1963–1964, the age distribution and demographic parameters (age-specific mortality and natality for one social group) during that year indicate that the population decline had already started. The rate of population decline was greatest in the 1964–1969 period and remained appreciable during the next 5 years. The decline of the baboon population was paralleled by that of other Amboseli savannah woodland mammalian species and took place during a period of very high mortality of fever trees (Acacia xanthophloea) and extensive invasion of the area by halophytes, a transition brought on by rising ground water and consequent elevation of the soil salinity zone. In this and several other primate populations, mortality of infants and juveniles appears to be the demographic variable most sensitive to environmental change.     

Ecological generalism and resilience of tropical island mammals to logging: A 23 year test

Tropical forest disturbance is a key driver of global biodiversity decline. On continents, the effects of logging are greatest on endemic species, presumably because disturbance is more likely to cover narrower distributions (the “cookie cutter” model). Islands hold disproportionate biodiversity, and are subject to accelerating biotic homogenization, where specialist endemics are lost while generalists persist. We tested responses of tropical island mammals to logging at multiple spatial scales, using a long‐term experimental test in a Pacific archipelago. The most widely distributed ecological generalists did not decline after logging, and we detected no overall changes in relative abundance or species diversity. However, endemics with small ranges did decline in response to logging. The least mobile and most range‐restricted species declined even at the smallest spatial scale, supporting the cookie cutter model for sedentary species, and suggesting that habitat change due to selective logging is contributing to biotic homogenization on islands.     

利用最大熵模型和规则集遗传算法模型预测孑遗植物裸果木的潜在地理分布及格局

利用野外调查的16个居群分布点和7个环境因子图层, 选择最大熵模型(MAXENT)和规则集遗传算法模型(GARP), 在地理和环境空间上模拟了第三纪孑遗植物裸果木(Gymnocarpos przewalskii)在中国西北地区的潜在分布。结果表明: (1)裸果木的潜在适生区全部集中在西北荒漠区, 其中最佳适生区主要集中在3个区域, 一是河西走廊中部和玉门以西、宁夏北部及内蒙古乌拉特后旗; 二是塔里木盆地西北缘; 三是柴达木盆地西北缘两片极小的高度适生区。裸果木的生态位被确定在一个较广的干旱环境空间: 适生区极端最高气温基本上在29.2-36.8 ℃之间, 极端最低气温在-18.3至-13.4 ℃之间; 年平均降水量40-200 mm; 潜在蒸发率在3-15之间。(2) MAXENT和GARP模型都较好地预测了裸果木的潜在分布, 但GARP产生了相对较大、较连续的潜在分布区, 部分过预测了破碎化生境; 而MAXENT预测到的潜在分布区, 在不同区域具有不同的环境适生性指数, 而且成功地排除了不合理的破碎化分布, 从而更直观地展示了裸果木的潜在分布格局和生态位要求。     

High variability in patterns of population decline: the importance of local processes in species extinctions

A fundamental goal of conservation science is to improve conservation practice. Understanding species extinction patterns has been a central approach towards this objective. However, uncertainty remains about the extent to which species-level patterns reliably indicate population phenomena at the scale of local sites, where conservation ultimately takes place. Here, we explore the importance of both species- and site-specific components of variation in local population declines following habitat disturbance, and test a suite of hypotheses about their intrinsic and extrinsic drivers. To achieve these goals, we analyse an unusually detailed global dataset for species responses to habitat disturbance, namely primates in timber extraction systems, using cross-classified generalized linear mixed models. We show that while there are consistent differences in the severity of local population decline between species, an equal amount of variation also occurs between sites. The tests of our hypotheses further indicate that a combination of biological traits at the species level, and environmental factors at the site level, can help to explain these patterns. Specifically, primate populations show a more marked decline when the species is characterized by slow reproduction, high ecological requirements, low ecological flexibility and small body size; and when the local environment has had less time for recovery following disturbance. Our results demonstrate that individual species show a highly heterogeneous, yet explicable, pattern of decline. The increased recognition and elucidation of local-scale processes in species declines will improve our ability to conserve biodiversity in the future.