Identifying Adult Dengue Patients at Low Risk for Clinically Significant Bleeding

Background

Clinically significant bleeding is important for subsequent optimal case management in dengue patients, but most studies have focused on dengue severity as an outcome. Our study objective was to identify differences in admission parameters between patients who developed clinically significant bleeding and those that did not. We sought to develop a model for discriminating between these patients.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective study of 4,383 adults aged >18 years who were hospitalized with dengue infection at Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore from 2005 to 2008. Patients were divided into those with clinically significant bleeding (n = 188), and those without (n = 4,195). Demographic, clinical, and laboratory variables on admission were compared between groups to determine factors associated with clinically significant bleeding during hospitalization.

Results

On admission, female gender (p<0.001); temperature >38°C (p<0.001); nausea/vomiting (p = 0.009) and abdominal pain/tenderness (p = 0.005); lower systolic blood pressure (p<0.001); higher pulse rate (p<0.001); increased absolute neutrophil count (ANC; p<0.001); reduced absolute lymphocyte count (ALC; p<0.001), haematocrit percentage (p<0.001) and platelet count (p = 0.04), and increased prothrombin time (p = 0.003) were significantly associated with clinically significant bleeding on univariate analysis. Multivariate analysis showed that independent variables in the final model were female gender (aOR 2.85; 95% CI: 1.9–4.33); temperature >38°C (aOR 1.81; 95% CI: 1.27–2.61), nausea/vomiting (aOR 1.39; 95% CI: 0.94–2.12), ANC (aOR 1.3; 95% CI: 1.15–1.46), ALC (aOR 0.4; 95% CI: 0.25–0.64), hematocrit percentage (aOR 0.96; 95% CI: 0.92–1.002) and platelet count (aOR 0.993; 95% CI: 0.988–0.998). At the cutoff of -3.919, the model achieved an AUC of 0.758 (sensitivity:0.87, specificity: 0.38, PPV: 0.06, NPV: 0.98).

Conclusion

Clinical risk factors associated with clinically significant bleeding were identified. This model may be useful to complement clinical judgement in triaging adult dengue patients given the dynamic nature of acute dengue, particularly in pre-identifying those less likely to develop clinically significant bleeding.     

Effect of oseltamivir phosphate versus placebo on platelet recovery and plasma leakage in adults with dengue and thrombocytopenia; a phase 2, multicenter,double-blind,randomized trial

BackgroundThrombocytopenia, bleeding and plasma leakage are major complications of dengue. Activation of endogenous sialidases with desialylation of platelets and endothelial cells may underlie these complications. We aimed to assess the effects of the neuraminidase inhibitor oseltamivir on platelet recovery and plasma leakage in dengue.MethodsWe performed a phase 2, double-blind, multicenter, randomized trial in adult dengue patients with thrombocytopenia (<70,000/μl) and a duration of illness ≤ 6 days. Oseltamivir phosphate 75mg BID or placebo were given for a maximum of five days. Primary outcomes were the time to platelet recovery (≥ 100,000/μl) or discharge from hospital and the course of measures of plasma leakage.ResultsA total of 70 patients were enrolled; the primary outcome could be assessed in 64 patients (31 oseltamivir; 33 placebo). Time to platelet count ≥100,000/μl (n = 55) or discharge (n = 9) were similar in the oseltamivir and placebo group (3.0 days [95% confidence interval, 2.7 to 3.3] vs. 2.9 days [2.5 to 3.3], P = 0.055). The kinetics of platelet count and parameters of plasma leakage (gall bladder thickness, hematocrit, plasma albumin, syndecan-1) were also similar between the groups.DiscussionIn this trial, adjunctive therapy with oseltamivir phosphate had no effect on platelet recovery or plasma leakage parameters.Trial registrationISRCTN35227717.     

Rapid testing requires clinical evaluation for accurate diagnosis of dengue disease: A passive surveillance study in Southern Malaysia

BackgroundDengue fever is the most common mosquito-borne infection worldwide where an expanding surveillance and characterization of this infection are needed to better inform the healthcare system. In this surveillance-based study, we explored the prevalence and distinguishing features of dengue fever amongst febrile patients in a large community-based health facility in southern peninsular Malaysia.MethodsOver six months in 2018, we recruited 368 adults who met the WHO 2009 criteria for probable dengue infection. They underwent the following blood tests: full blood count, dengue virus (DENV) rapid diagnostic test (RDT), ELISA (dengue IgM and IgG), nested RT-PCR for dengue, multiplex qRT-PCR for Zika, Chikungunya and dengue as well as PCR tests for Leptopspira spp., Japanese encephalitis and West Nile virus.ResultsLaboratory-confirmed dengue infections (defined by positive tests in NS1, IgM, high-titre IgG or nested RT-PCR) were found in 167 (45.4%) patients. Of these 167 dengue patients, only 104 (62.3%) were positive on rapid diagnostic testing. Dengue infection was significantly associated with the following features: family or neighbours with dengue in the past week (AOR: 3.59, 95% CI:2.14–6.00, p<0.001), cutaneous rash (AOR: 3.58, 95% CI:1.77–7.23, p<0.001), increased temperature (AOR: 1.33, 95% CI:1.04–1.70, p = 0.021), leucopenia (white cell count < 4,000/μL) (AOR: 3.44, 95% CI:1.72–6.89, p<0.001) and thrombocytopenia (platelet count <150,000/μL)(AOR: 4.63, 95% CI:2.33–9.21, p<0.001). Dengue infection was negatively associated with runny nose (AOR: 0.47, 95% CI:0.29–0.78, p = 0.003) and arthralgia (AOR: 0.42, 95% CI:0.24–0.75, p = 0.004). Serotyping by nested RT-PCR revealed mostly mono-infections with DENV-2 (n = 64), DENV-1 (n = 32) and DENV-3 (n = 17); 14 co-infections occurred with DENV-1/DENV-2 (n = 13) and DENV-1/DENV-4 (n = 1). Besides dengue, none of the pathogens above were found in patients’ serum.ConclusionsAcute undifferentiated febrile infections are a diagnostic challenge for community-based clinicians. Rapid diagnostic tests are increasingly used to diagnose dengue infection but negative tests should be interpreted with caution as they fail to detect a considerable proportion of dengue infection. Certain clinical features and haematological parameters are important in the clinical diagnosis of dengue infection.     

CD4 and Viral Load Dynamics in Antiretroviral-Na?ve HIV-Infected Adults from Soweto,South Africa: A Prospective Cohort

BackgroundCD4 count is a proxy for the extent of immune deficiency and declines in CD4 count are a measure of disease progression. Decline in CD4 count is an important component: for estimating benefits of ARV treatment; for individual level counselling on the rapidity of untreated disease progression and prognosis; and can be used in planning demand for health services. Our objective is to report CD4 decline and changes in viral load (VL) in a group of HIV-infected adults enrolled in a randomized trial of preventive treatment for TB in South Africa where clade C infection predominates.MethodsHIV-infected, tuberculin skin test positive adults who were not eligible for antiretroviral (ARV) treatment were randomized to a trial of preventive treatment from 2003–2005. VL and CD4 count were assessed at enrollment and CD4 counts repeated at least annually. During follow-up, individuals whose CD4 counts decreased to <200 cells/mm³ were referred for antiretroviral therapy (ART) and were analytically censored.Results1106 ARV naïve adults were enrolled. Their median age was 30 years and male to female ratio was 1∶5. Median baseline CD4 count was 490 cells/mm³ (IQR 351–675). The overall mean decline in CD4 count was 61 cells/mm³ per annum. Adjusting for age, gender, baseline hemoglobin, smoking and alcohol use had little impact on the estimate of CD4 decline. However, VL at baseline had a major impact on CD4 decline. The percent decline in CD4 count was 13.3% (95% CI 12.0%, 14.7%), 10.6% (95% CI 8.8%, 12.4%), and 13.8% (95% CI 12.1%, 15.5%) per annum for baseline VLs of <10,000 (N = 314), 10,001–100,000 (N = 338), >100,000 (N = 122) copies/ml.ConclusionsOur data suggests that six and a half years will elapse for an individual''s CD4 count to decline from 750 to 350 cells/mm³ in the absence of ART.     

Evaluating Total Lymphocyte Count as a Surrogate Marker for CD4 Cell Count in the Management of HIV-Infected Patients in Resource-Limited Settings: A Study from China

Objective

To evaluate the correlation of total lymphocyte count (TLC) and CD4 cell count and the suitability of TLC as a surrogate marker for CD4 cell count of HIV-infected patients in China.

Methods

Usefulness of TLC as a surrogate marker for a CD4 cell count <350 cells/mm³ for HIV-positive patients in China was evaluated by 977 pairs of TLC and CD4 cell count from 977 outpatients. The result was then validated by a literature review which was conducted on 9 relevant articles. Further investigation using the 977 pairs of TLC and CD4 cell count data was done to determine a TLC threshold for predicting a CD4 cell count <500 cells/mm³. Correlation and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis were performed for both CD4 cell counts, and the sensitivity and specificity were computed.

Results

Good correlation was noted between TLC and CD4 count (r = 0.60, 95% CI, 0.56–0.64). TLC obtained a relatively high diagnostic performance (area under ROC curve, 0.80) for predicting a CD4 cell count <350 cells/mm³, with a sensitivity of 0.65 (95% CI, 0.61–0.68) and a specificity of 0.80 (95% CI, 0.75–0.85) at the TLC threshold of 1570 cells/mm³. The literature review suggested that for a CD4 cell count <350 cells/mm³, the optimal TLC threshold was 1500 cells/mm³, which was similar to the figure presented in this observational study. As for predicting a CD4 cell count <500 cells/mm³, TLC obtained a high diagnostic performance (area under ROC curve, 0.82) as well with a sensitivity of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.67–0.73) and a specificity of 0.80 (95% CI, 0.73–0.87).

Conclusions

When considering the antiretroviral therapy for HIV-infected Chinese individuals, total lymphocyte count can be considered as an inexpensive and easily available surrogate marker for predicting two clinically important thresholds of CD4 count of 350 cells/mm³ and 500 cells/mm³.     

Cohorting Dengue Patients Improves the Quality of Care and Clinical Outcome

IntroductionThe increasing incidence of dengue among adults in Malaysia and other countries has important implications for health services. Before 2004, in order to cope with the surge in adult dengue admissions, each of the six medical wards in a university hospital took turns daily to admit and manage patients with dengue. Despite regular in-house training, the implementation of the WHO 1997 dengue case management guidelines by the multiple medical teams was piecemeal and resulted in high variability of care. A restructuring of adult dengue inpatient service in 2004 resulted in all patients being admitted to one ward under the care of the infectious disease unit. Hospital and Intensive Care Unit admission criteria, discharge criteria and clinical laboratory testing were maintained unchanged throughout the study period.ObjectivesTo evaluate the impact of cohorting adult dengue patients on the quality of care and the clinical outcome in a university hospital in Malaysia.MethodsA pre (2003) and post-intervention (2005–6) retrospective study was undertaken.InterventionCohorting all dengue patients under the care of the Infectious Disease team in a designated ward in 2004.ResultsThe number of patients enrolled was 352 in 2003, 785 in 2005 and 1158 in 2006. The evaluation and detection of haemorrhage remained high (>90%) and unchanged throughout the study period. The evaluation of plasma leakage increased from 35.4% pre-intervention to 78.8% post-intervention (p = <0.001) while its detection increased from 11.4% to 41.6% (p = <0.001). Examination for peripheral perfusion was undertaken in only 13.1% of patients pre-intervention, with a significant increase post-intervention, 18.6% and 34.2% respectively, p = <0.001. Pre-intervention, more patients had hypotension (21.5%) than detected peripheral hypoperfusion (11.4%), indicating that clinicians recognised shock only when patients developed hypotension. In contrast, post-intervention, clinicians recognised peripheral hypoperfusion as an early sign of shock. The highest haematocrit was significantly higher post-intervention but the lowest total white cell counts and platelet counts remained unchanged. A significant and progressive reduction in the use of platelet transfusions occurred, from 21.7% pre-intervention to 14.6% in 2005 and 5.2% in 2006 post-intervention, p<0.001. Likewise, the use of plasma transfusion decreased significantly from 6.1% pre-intervention to 4.0% and 1.6% in the post-intervention years of 2005 and 2006 respectively, p<0.001. The duration of intravenous fluid therapy decreased from 3 days pre-intervention to 2.5 days (p<0.001) post-intervention; the length of hospital stay reduced from 4 days pre- to 3 days (p<0.001) post-intervention and the rate of intensive care admission from 5.8% pre to 2.6% and 2.5% post-intervention, p = 0.005.ConclusionCohorting adult dengue patients under a dedicated and trained team of doctors and nurses led to a substantial improvement in quality of care and clinical outcome.     

Influence of perioperative whole blood transfusions on lymphocyte subpopulations in patients with stage II breast cancer

Preliminary reports have suggested an adverse relationship between blood transfusion and survival after surgery in patients with solid tumour. One might postulate that from these studies, perioperative blood transfusions alter host immune defences. We therefore examined the influence of homologous whole blood transfusion on circulating lymphocyte subpopulations in transfused patients compared with non-transfused patients. Fifty-one women with Stage II breast cancer who underwent surgical procedures were studied. Patients were classified into two groups on the basis of whether or not they had received blood transfusion. The lymphocyte subpopulations were analyzed by flow cytometry before cancer surgery and three weeks after the operation. CD3⁺, CD4⁺, CD8⁺, and CD20⁺ cells as the lymphocyte subsets were quantitated using appropriate monoclonal antibodies. No significant differences between pre- and postoperative lymphocyte subset levels were seen in non-transfused patients. However, there was a statistically significant increase in the CD8⁺ cell count; decreasing CD4⁺ cell count and decreased CD3⁺ cells levels were observed in the transfused group (P<0.05). Although these early results of the study suggest that the blood transfusions could be associated with alterations in lymphocyte populations, additional studies are needed to elucidate the possible mechanism of the transfusion-induced immunological modulations.     

Intravascular Ultrasound Observation of the Mechanism of No-Reflow Phenomenon in Acute Myocardial Infarction

Objective

To study the mechanism of the no-reflow phenomenon using coronary angiography (CAG) and intravascular ultrasound (IVUS).

Methods

A total of 120 patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) who successfully underwent indwelling intracoronary stent placement by percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). All patients underwent pre- and post-PCI CAG and pre-IVUS. No-reflow was defined as post-PCI thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI) grade 0, 1, or 2 flow in the absence of mechanical obstruction. Normal reflow was defined as TIMI grade 3 flow. The pre-operation reference vascular area, minimal luminal cross-sectional area, plaque cross-sectional area, lesion length, plaque volume and plaque traits were measured by IVUS.

Results

The no-reflow group was observed in 14 cases (11.6%) and normal blood-flow group in 106 cases (89.4%) based on CAG results. There was no statistically significant difference in the patients’ medical history, reference vascular area (no-flow vs. normal-flow; 15.5 ± 3.2 vs. 16.2 ± 3.3, p> 0.05) and lesion length (21.9 ± 5.1 vs. 19.5 ± 4.8, p> 0.05) between the two groups. No-reflow patients had a longer symptom onset to reperfusion time compared to normal blood-flow group [(6.6 ± 3.1) h vs (4.3 ± 2.7) h; p< 0.05] and higher incidence of TIMI flow grade< 3 (71.4% vs 49.0%, p< 0.05). By IVUS examination, the no-reflow group had a significantly increased coronary plaque area and plaque volume compared to normal blood-flow group [(13.7 ± 3.0) mm² vs (10.2 ± 2.9) mm²; (285.4 ± 99.8) mm³ vs (189.7 ± 86.4) mm³; p< 0.01]. The presence of IVUS-detected soft plaque (57.1% vs. 24.0%, p< 0.01), eccentric plaque (64.2% vs. 33.7%, p< 0.05), plaque rupture (50.0% vs. 21.2%, p< 0.01), and thrombosis (42.8% vs. 15.3%) were significantly more common in no-reflow group.

Conclusion

There was no obvious relationship between the coronary risk factors and no-reflow phenomenon. The symptom onset to reperfusion time, TIMI flow grade before stent deployment, plaque area, soft plaques, eccentric plaques, plaque rupture and thrombosis may be risk factors for the no-reflow phenomenon after PCI.     

Efficacy of rupatadine in reducing the incidence of dengue haemorrhagic fever in patients with acute dengue: A randomised,double blind,placebo-controlled trial

BackgroundRupatadine was previously shown to reduce endothelial dysfunction in vitro, reduced vascular leak in dengue mouse models and to reduce the extent of pleural effusions and thrombocytopenia in patients with acute dengue. Therefore, we sought to determine the efficacy of rupatadine in reducing the incidence of dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) in patients with acute dengue.Methods and findingsA phase 2, randomised, double blind, placebo controlled clinical trial was carried out in patients with acute dengue in Sri Lanka in an outpatient setting. Patients with ≤3 days since the onset of illness were either recruited to the treatment arm of oral rupatadine 40mg for 5 days (n = 123) or the placebo arm (n = 126). Clinical and laboratory features were measured daily to assess development of DHF and other complications. 12 (9.7%) patients developed DHF in the treatment arm compared to 22 (17.5%) who were on the placebo although this was not significant (p = 0.09, relative risk 0.68, 95% CI 0.41 to 1.08). Rupatadine also significantly reduced (p = 0.01) the proportion of patients with platelet counts <50,000 cells/mm³ and significantly reduced (p = 0.04) persisting vomiting, headache and hepatic tenderness (p<0.0001) in patients. There was a significant difference in the duration of illness (p = 0.0002) although the proportion of individuals who required hospital admission in both treatment arms. Only 2 patients on rupatadine and 3 patients on the placebo developed shock, while bleeding manifestations were seen in 6 patients on rupatadine and 7 patients on the placebo.ConclusionsRupatadine appeared to be safe and well tolerated and showed a trend towards a reducing proportion of patients with acute dengue who developed DHF. Its usefulness when used in combination with other treatment modalities should be explored.Trial registrationInternational Clinical Trials Registration Platform: SLCTR/2017/024.     

Effects of perioperative blood transfusion on the prognosis in hereditary and sporadic colon cancer

Abstract

We investigated the effects of perioperative blood transfusion in the prognosis of hereditary and sporadic colon cancer. There are 1075 colon cancer patients, including 936 sporadic colon cancer and 139 with hereditary colon cancer undergoing surgery at our hospital. All patients underwent 10 years of follow-up. In the sporadic group, mortality, local recurrence rate and distant metastases rate of transfused patients were significantly higher than non-transfused patients. The 10-year survival rates were significantly lower in patients receiving blood transfusions compared to non-transfused patients. In the hereditary group, mortality was higher in transfused patients compared to non-transfused patients.     

Intravoxel Incoherent Motion Diffusion Weighted MR Imaging at 3.0 T: Assessment of Steatohepatitis and Fibrosis Compared with Liver Biopsy in Type 2 Diabetic Patients

ObjectiveTo evaluate the capability of intravoxel incoherent motion (IVIM) diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) to assess steatohepatitis and fibrosis determined by histopathology in type 2 diabetic patients.MethodsFifty-nine type 2 diabetic patients (49 women, 10 men; mean age, 54 ± 9 years) were submitted to liver biopsy for the evaluation of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and underwent DWI on a 3.0T MR system using 10 b values. Institutional approval and patient consent were obtained. Pure molecular-based (D), perfusion-related (D*), and vascular fraction (f) were calculated using a double exponential model and least squares curve fitting. D, D*, and f were compared between patients with and without steatohepatitis and between patients with and without fibrosis. The variables were compared by using the Ranksum test and Student t-test.ResultsSteatohepatitis was observed in 22 patients and fibrosis in 16 patients. A lower D median (0.70 s/mm² vs. 0.83 s/mm², p<0.05) and a lower D* median (34.39 s/mm² vs. 45.23 s/mm², p<0.05) were observed among those with steatohepatitis. A lower D median (0.70 s/mm² vs. 0.82 s/mm², p<0.05) and a lower D* median (35.01 s/mm² vs. 44.76 s/mm², p=0.05) were also observed among those with fibrosis.ConclusionIVIM-DWI has the potential to aid in the characterization of steatohepatitis and fibrosis.     

Prognostic Significance of Combination of Preoperative Platelet Count and Neutrophil-Lymphocyte Ratio (COP-NLR) in Patients with Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: Based on a Large Cohort Study

IntroductionThe aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic significance of the combination of the preoperative platelet count and neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (COP-NLR) for predicting postoperative survival of patients undergoing complete resection for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).MethodsThe preoperative COP-NLR was calculated on the basis of data obtained.Patients with both an increased platelet count (>30.0×10⁴ mm^-3) and an elevated NLR (>2.3) were assigned a score of 2, and patients with one or neither were assigned as a score of 1 or 0, respectively.ResultsA total of 1238 NSCLC patients were enrolled in this analysis. Multivariate analysis using the 15 clinicolaboratory variables selected by univariate analyses demonstrated that the preoperative COP-NLR was an independent prognostic factor for DFS (HR: 1.834, 95%CI: 1.536 to 2.200, P<0.001) and OS (HR: 1.810, 95%CI: 1.587 to 2.056, P<0.001). In sub-analyses by tumor stage (I, II, IIIA), a significant association was found between DFS and OS and level of COP-NLR in each subgroup (P<0.001, P=0.002, P<0.001 for DFS, respectively; P<0.001, P=0.001, P<0.001 for OS). When the subgroup of patients with high-risk COP-NLR (score of 2) was analyzed, no benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy could be found (P=0.237 for DFS and P=0.165 for OS).ConclusionsThe preoperative COP-NLR is able to predict the prognosis of patients with NSCLC and divide these patients into three independent groups before surgery. Our results also demonstrate that high-risk patients based on the COP-NLR do not benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy. Independent validation of our findings is warranted.     

The Role of Whole Blood Impedance Aggregometry and Its Utilisation in the Diagnosis and Prognosis of Patients with Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome and Sepsis in Acute Critical Illness

Objective

To assess the prognostic and diagnostic value of whole blood impedance aggregometry in patients with sepsis and SIRS and to compare with whole blood parameters (platelet count, haemoglobin, haematocrit and white cell count).

Methods

We performed an observational, prospective study in the acute setting. Platelet function was determined using whole blood impedance aggregometry (multiplate) on admission to the Emergency Department or Intensive Care Unit and at 6 and 24 hours post admission. Platelet count, haemoglobin, haematocrit and white cell count were also determined.

Results

106 adult patients that met SIRS and sepsis criteria were included. Platelet aggregation was significantly reduced in patients with severe sepsis/septic shock when compared to SIRS/uncomplicated sepsis (ADP: 90.7±37.6 vs 61.4±40.6; p<0.001, Arachadonic Acid 99.9±48.3 vs 66.3±50.2; p = 0.001, Collagen 102.6±33.0 vs 79.1±38.8; p = 0.001; SD ± mean)). Furthermore platelet aggregation was significantly reduced in the 28 day mortality group when compared with the survival group (Arachadonic Acid 58.8±47.7 vs 91.1±50.9; p<0.05, Collagen 36.6±36.6 vs 98.0±35.1; p = 0.001; SD ± mean)). However haemoglobin, haematocrit and platelet count were more effective at distinguishing between subgroups and were equally effective indicators of prognosis. Significant positive correlations were observed between whole blood impedance aggregometry and platelet count (ADP 0.588 p<0.0001, Arachadonic Acid 0.611 p<0.0001, Collagen 0.599 p<0.0001 (Pearson correlation)).

Conclusions

Reduced platelet aggregometry responses were not only significantly associated with morbidity and mortality in sepsis and SIRS patients, but also correlated with the different pathological groups. Whole blood aggregometry significantly correlated with platelet count, however, when we adjust for the different groups we investigated, the effect of platelet count appears to be non-significant.     

Acute Respiratory Failure and Active Bleeding Are the Important Fatality Predictive Factors for Severe Dengue Viral Infection

Objective

To determine the outcome of severe dengue viral infection (DVI) and the main dengue fatality risk factors.

Study design

The medical records of patients aged <15 years admitted to Songklanagarind Hospital in southern Thailand during 1989–2011 were reviewed. Patients who had dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) grades III–IV, organ failure (cardiovascular, respiratory, liver, renal or hematologic), impaired consciousness, or aspartate aminotransferase more than 1,000 units/L, were classified as having severe DVI. To determine the fatality risk factors of severe DVI, the classification trees were constructed based on manual recursive partitioning.

Results

Of the 238 children with severe DVI, 30 (12.6%) died. Compared to the non-fatal DVI cases, the fatal cases had higher rates of DHF grade IV (96.7% vs 24.5%), repeated shock (93.3% vs 27.9%), acute respiratory failure (ARF) (100% vs 6.7%), acute liver failure (ALF) (96.6% vs 6.3%), acute kidney injury (AKI) (79.3% vs 4.5%), and active bleeding requiring blood transfusion (93.3% vs 5.4%), all p<0.01. The combined risk factors of ARF and active bleeding considered together predicted fatal outcome with sensitivity, specificity, and negative and positive predictive values of 0.93 (0.78–0.99), 0.97 (0.93–0.99), 0.99 (0.97–1.00), and 0.82 (0.65–0.93), respectively. The likelihood ratios for a fatal outcome in the patients who had and did not have this risk combination were 32.4 (14.6–71.7) and 0.07 (0.02–0.26), respectively.

Conclusion

Severe DVI patients who have ARF and active bleeding are at a high risk of death, while patients without these things together should survive.     

Early Indicators of Fatal Leptospirosis during the 2010 Epidemic in Puerto Rico

Background

Leptospirosis is a potentially fatal bacterial zoonosis that is endemic throughout the tropics and may be misdiagnosed as dengue. Delayed hospital admission of leptospirosis patients is associated with increased mortality.

Methodology/Principal Findings

During a concurrent dengue/leptospirosis epidemic in Puerto Rico in 2010, suspected dengue patients that tested dengue-negative were tested for leptospirosis. Fatal and non-fatal hospitalized leptospirosis patients were matched 1:1–3 by age. Records from all medical visits were evaluated for factors associated with fatal outcome. Among 175 leptospirosis patients identified (4.7 per 100,000 residents), 26 (15%) were fatal. Most patients were older males and had illness onset during the rainy season. Fatal case patients first sought medical care earlier than non-fatal control patients (2.5 vs. 5 days post-illness onset [DPO], p < 0.01), but less frequently first sought care at a hospital (52.4% vs. 92.2%, p < 0.01). Although fatal cases were more often diagnosed with leptospirosis at first medical visit (43.9% vs. 9.6%, p = 0.01), they were admitted to the hospital no earlier than non-fatal controls (4.5 vs. 6 DPO, p = 0.31). Cases less often developed fever (p = 0.03), but more often developed jaundice, edema, leg pain, hemoptysis, and had a seizure (p ≤ 0.03). Multivariable analysis of laboratory values from first medical visit associated with fatal outcome included increased white blood cell (WBC) count with increased creatinine (p = 0.001), and decreased bicarbonate with either increased WBC count, increased creatinine, or decreased platelet count (p < 0.001).

Conclusions/Significance

Patients with fatal leptospirosis sought care earlier, but were not admitted for care any earlier than non-fatal patients. Combinations of routine laboratory values predictive of fatal outcome should be considered in admission decision-making for patients with suspected leptospirosis.     

Challenges in Dengue Fever in the Elderly: Atypical Presentation and Risk of Severe Dengue and Hospita-Acquired Infection

Background/methods

To better understand dengue fever in the elderly, we compared clinical features, World Health Organization (WHO) dengue classification and outcomes between adult (<60) and elderly (≥60) dengue patients. We explored the impact of co-morbidity and hospital-acquired infection (HAI) on clinical outcomes in the elderly. All patients managed at the Communicable Disease Centre, Singapore, between 2005 and 2008 with positive dengue polymerase chain reaction (PCR) or who fulfilled WHO 1997 or 2009 probable dengue criteria with positive dengue IgM were included.

Results

Of the 6989 cases, 295 (4.4%) were elderly. PCR was positive in 29%. The elderly suffered more severe disease with more dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) (29.2% vs. 21.4%) and severe dengue (SD) (20.3% vs. 14.6%) (p<0.05). Classic dengue symptoms were more common in the adult group. The elderly were less likely to fulfill WHO 1997 (93.6% vs. 96.4%) (p = 0.014), but not WHO 2009 probable dengue (75.3% vs. 71.5%). Time to dengue diagnosis was similar. There was no significant difference in the frequency of warning signs between the two groups, but the elderly were more likely to have hepatomegaly (p = 0.006) and malaise/lethargy (p = 0.033) while the adults had significantly more mucosal bleeding (p<0.001). Intensive care admission occurred in 15 and death in three, with no age difference. Notably, the elderly stayed in hospital longer (median 5 vs. 4 days), and suffered more pneumonia (3.8% vs. 0.7%) and urinary infection (1.9% vs. 0.3%) (p = 0.003). Predictors of excess length of stay were age (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.01, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.37–2.88), critical illness (aOR 5.13, 95%CI 2.59–9.75), HAI (aOR 12.06, 95%CI 7.39–19.9), Charlson score (aOR 6.9, 95%CI 2.02–22.56) and severe dengue (DHF/dengue shock syndrome/SD) (aOR 2.24, 95%CI 1.83–2.74).

Conclusion

Elderly dengue patients present atypically and are at higher risk of DHF, SD and HAI. Aside from dengue severity, age, co-morbidity and HAI were associated with longer hospital stay.     

Maternal CD4+ Cell Count Decline after Interruption of Antiretroviral Prophylaxis for the Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV

Background

We evaluated maternal CD4+ cell count (CD4+) decline after PMTCT prophylaxis in a multi-country HIV care program.

Methods

Analysis was restricted to antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naive, HIV-infected pregnant women with CD4+ ≥250 cells/mm³ at enrollment. Single-dose nevirapine (sd-NVP) or short-course antiretroviral prophylaxis (sc-ARVp) with zidovudine (AZT) or AZT + lamivudine (3TC) was initiated in 11 programs while 2 programs offered triple-drug antiretroviral prophylaxis (tARVp) (AZT+3TC+ NVP or nelfinavir). All regimens were stopped at delivery. CD4+ decline was defined as proportion of women who declined to CD4+ <350 cells/mm³ or <200 cells/mm³ at 24 months. Weibull regression was used for multivariable analysis.

Findings

A total of 1,393 women with enrollment CD4+ ≥250 cells/mm³ initiated tARVp (172; 12%) or sc-ARVp (532; 38%) during pregnancy or received intrapartum sd-NVP (689; 50%). At enrollment, maternal median age was 27 years (interquartile range (IQR) 23–30), median CD4+ was 469 cells/mm³ (IQR: 363–613). At 24 months post-delivery, the cumulative probability of CD4+ decline to <200 cells/mm³ was 12% (95% CI: 10–14). Among a subgroup of 903 women with CD4+ ≥400 cells at enrollment, the 24 month cumulative probability of decline to CD4+ <350 cells/mm³ was 28%; (95% CI: 25–32). Lower antepartum CD4+ was associated with higher probability of CD4+ decline to <350 cells/mm³: 46% (CD4+400–499 cells/mm³) vs. 19% (CD4+ ≥500 cells/mm³). After adjusting for age, enrollment CD4+ and WHO stage, women who received tARVp or sd-NVP were twice as likely to experience CD4+ decline to <350 cells/mm³ within 24 months than women receiving sc-ARVp (adjusted hazard ratio: 2.2; 95% CI: 1.5–3.2, p<0.0001).

Conclusion

Decline in CD4+ cell count to ART eligibility thresholds by 24 months postpartum was common among women receiving PMTCT prophylaxis during pregnancy and/or delivery.     

Symptomatic Illness and Low CD4 Cell Count at HIV Seroconversion as Markers of Severe Primary HIV Infection

Background

The risk/benefit of initiating ART in primary HIV infection (PHI) is unclear. The benefits are more likely to outweigh the risks in patients with severe PHI. An accepted definition of severe PHI is, however, lacking.

Methods

CASCADE patients with HIV test interval <6 months were classified as severe and non-severe PHI based on whether the following traits were recorded in the first 6 months following seroconversion: severe specific pre-defined symptoms, central nervous system-implicated illness, and ≥1, ≥2 CD4<350 (and <500) cells/mm³. For each definition, we used Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox survival models to compare time to AIDS/death, censoring at the earlier of last clinic visit or 1/1/1997, when combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) became available.

Results

Among 1108 included patients mostly males (85%) infected through sex between men (71%), 366 were diagnosed with AIDS/died. The risk of AIDS/death was significantly higher for individuals with severe symptoms, those with ≥1 CD4<350 cells/mm³ or ≥2 CD4 <500 cells/mm³ in the first 6 months [aHR (95% confidence interval) 2.1 (1.4,3.2), 2.0 (1.5,2.7), and 2.3, (1.5–3.5) respectively]. Median [interquantile range] survival for patients with ≥2, ≥1 and no CD4<350 cells/mm³ within 6 months of seroconversion was 3.9 [2.7,6.5], 5.4 [4.5,8.4] and 8.1 [4.3,10.3] years, respectively. The diagnosis of CNS-implicated symptoms was rare and did not appear to be prognostic.

Conclusion

One CD4 count <350 or two <500 cells/mm³ within 6 months of seroconversion and/or severe illness in PHI may be useful early indicators of individuals at high risk of disease progression.     

When to Start Antiretroviral Therapy in Children Aged 2–5 Years: A Collaborative Causal Modelling Analysis of Cohort Studies from Southern Africa

Background

There is limited evidence on the optimal timing of antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation in children 2–5 y of age. We conducted a causal modelling analysis using the International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS–Southern Africa (IeDEA-SA) collaborative dataset to determine the difference in mortality when starting ART in children aged 2–5 y immediately (irrespective of CD4 criteria), as recommended in the World Health Organization (WHO) 2013 guidelines, compared to deferring to lower CD4 thresholds, for example, the WHO 2010 recommended threshold of CD4 count <750 cells/mm³ or CD4 percentage (CD4%) <25%.

Methods and Findings

ART-naïve children enrolling in HIV care at IeDEA-SA sites who were between 24 and 59 mo of age at first visit and with ≥1 visit prior to ART initiation and ≥1 follow-up visit were included. We estimated mortality for ART initiation at different CD4 thresholds for up to 3 y using g-computation, adjusting for measured time-dependent confounding of CD4 percent, CD4 count, and weight-for-age z-score. Confidence intervals were constructed using bootstrapping.The median (first; third quartile) age at first visit of 2,934 children (51% male) included in the analysis was 3.3 y (2.6; 4.1), with a median (first; third quartile) CD4 count of 592 cells/mm³ (356; 895) and median (first; third quartile) CD4% of 16% (10%; 23%). The estimated cumulative mortality after 3 y for ART initiation at different CD4 thresholds ranged from 3.4% (95% CI: 2.1–6.5) (no ART) to 2.1% (95% CI: 1.3%–3.5%) (ART irrespective of CD4 value). Estimated mortality was overall higher when initiating ART at lower CD4 values or not at all. There was no mortality difference between starting ART immediately, irrespective of CD4 value, and ART initiation at the WHO 2010 recommended threshold of CD4 count <750 cells/mm³ or CD4% <25%, with mortality estimates of 2.1% (95% CI: 1.3%–3.5%) and 2.2% (95% CI: 1.4%–3.5%) after 3 y, respectively. The analysis was limited by loss to follow-up and the unavailability of WHO staging data.

Conclusions

The results indicate no mortality difference for up to 3 y between ART initiation irrespective of CD4 value and ART initiation at a threshold of CD4 count <750 cells/mm³ or CD4% <25%, but there are overall higher point estimates for mortality when ART is initiated at lower CD4 values. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary