Reproductive change in Zimbabwe and Kenya: the role of the proximate determinants in recent fertility trends

This study examines trends in proximate determinants of fertility in Zimbabwe and Kenya. Findings from the four Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in these countries show that the dramatic fall in fertility in these countries is consistent with the underlying trends in the most important proximate determinants of fertility. In Zimbabwe, contraceptive use far exceeds other proximate determinants in influencing fertility levels and trends. The results show that the fertility inhibiting effects of contraception are more important than the effects of postpartum infecundability, marriage patterns, or sterility. The results also show that contraceptive use has its greatest suppressing effects in the middle and younger age groups. However, in Kenya, the dominant fertility inhibiting effect is postpartum infecundability, with contraception coming in second.     

Effect of nuptiality, contraception and breast-feeding on fertility in Bangladesh

The effects of marriage, contraception, and post-partum lactational infecundability on fertility in Bangladesh are assessed by applying Bongaarts' formula to survey data for the period 1975-1985. Marriage is universal and age at marriage is low. Breastfeeding is prolonged and has a pronounced effect on fertility. The fertility-reducing effect of contraception increased over the period through increased use of modern methods. The total fertility rate (TFR) declined by 24% from 1975 to 1985. This study shows that the 3 major proximate determinants cannot account completely for variation in national fertility levels.     

Determinants of rural and urban fertility differentials in Nigeria

Whatever proximate variables are examined, their differential effects on rural and urban fertility are small. This indicates that no major disturbance has taken place in urban or rural reproductive norms. However, two possible reasons for the converging pattern of rural and urban fertility in Nigeria are identified. One is that urban mothers in the first half of the childbearing age range have higher fertility than their rural counterparts. The other is that breast-feeding and post-partum abstinence, which are the major determinants of marital fertility, exert a more depressing influence on rural than urban fertility.     

Greater than expected fertility decline in Ghana: untangling a puzzle

This study examines fertility decline that is larger than expected on the basis of recorded increases in contraceptive prevalence in Ghana. The primary sources of data are three Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) conducted in the country in 1988, 1993 and 1998. First, the trend in fertility and contraceptive prevalence in Ghana is considered and compared with the trend that would be expected on the basis of prior research. Next, an attempt is made to uncover the explanation behind this unexpected trend. Measures of the quality of the survey data are looked at, as well as trends in the proximate determinants of fertility: contraceptive use, marriage and sexual activity, postpartum insusceptibility and induced abortion. Finally, evidence is presented that couples adjust their coital frequency in accordance with their fertility preferences, behaviour that would influence fertility rates but would not be captured by conventional measures of the proximate determinants of fertility.     

Rapid fertility decline in Iran: analysis of intermediate variables

The remarkable decline in fertility in Iran, which saw the total fertility rate fall from 7 children per woman in 1986 to 2 in 2000, has received only limited analysis in the demographic literature. Using the 2000 Iran Demographic and Health Survey and Bongaarts' age-specific fertility model, this paper examines the role of the major proximate determinants of fertility in bringing about the rapid decrease in fertility in Iran. The analysis indicates that contraception had the largest effect on fertility, accounting for 61% of the reduction in fertility from its theoretical maximum. The fertility-inhibiting effect of marriage patterns accounted for an additional 31% reduction, and was most important among the young. Further analysis of contraceptive behaviour suggests that the current period fertility rate of 2.0 children per woman is an outcome of a synchronization of delaying and spacing of births among younger women with stopping of childbearing among women in the middle and late reproductive ages. The policy implications of the results are discussed.     

Marital fertility in polygynous unions in Nigeria

The effect of polygyny on fertility, by age cohort, was examined in 4 regions of Nigeria through use of data from the 1981-82 Nigerian Fertility Survey. Simple tabulation of numbers of live births by maternal age and type of marriage union indicated that, with the exception of the 30-39-year age group, fertility in polygynous unions tends to be higher than that in monogamous marriages. Overall, such tabulations reveal an average of 3.90 births among polygynous women and 3.47 births among monogamous women. However, when age-specific fertility rates were compared, except for women under 20 and over 40 years of age, rates were higher in monogamous unions (7.286 overall) than for women in polygynous households (7.200 overall). Mean completed fertility, taking into account marriage duration as well, shows a tendency for women in polygynous unions to be more fertile (with the exception of women aged 25-44 years who had been married 10-19 years). The absolute difference in fertility between the 2 types of marital unions ranged from 0.32 children in the northwest to 0.64 in the southeast. With adjustment for independent variables such as education, the absolute mean differences were reduced, from between 0.28 children in the southeast to 0.42 in the northeast, but the direction of high fertility was still in favor of women in polygynous unions. But when the covariates (e.g., age at marriage) were taken into account as well as the independent variables, there was a dramatic reduction in the mean difference between the fertility of these 2 groups of women. These findings suggest that some changes in reproductive behavior are taking place in Nigeria that are restricting the fertility of women in polygynous unions. These changes are hypothesized to reflect the spread of formal education in Nigeria, with the expectation that women will contribute to the costs involved in educating their children.     

Fertility transition in Bangladesh: understanding the role of the proximate determinants

Bangladesh has been passing through a crucial phase of fertility transition. The level of fertility declined dramatically during the early 1990s without any remarkable improvement in socioeconomic and health status, and then remained constant at a high level of 3.3, despite the increased use of contraception. Such fertility transition can be traced to variations in one or more of the proximate or direct determinants of fertility. This paper critically analyses the fertility levels in Bangladesh with a view to exploring the possible explanations of fertility decline in the 1990s and then its stabilization. The main focus of the study is to examine the role of the major proximate determinants of fertility in bringing about the change in fertility level in Bangladesh. The data for the study come from a series of nationally representative surveys over the period of 1975 to 1999-2000. The analysis indicates that fertility has temporarily ceased to decline in recent years due to the 'tempo' effect of high past fertility, but in general a declining trend in fertility is underway. The analysis suggests that the fall in fertility is consistent with the underlying trends in most important proximate determinants of fertility. In recent years contraception has emerged as the highest fertility reducing factor in Bangladesh and its effect is greatest in middle and older age groups. Although until the early 1990s postpartum lactational infecundability was the most important and strongest fertility reducing factor in Bangladesh, in recent years its fertility inhibiting effect has gradually decreasing owing to the declining trend in the lactational infecundability period. The analysis reveals that although the fertility reducing effect of the marriage pattern is increasing, its effect is offset by the declining trend in the lactational infecundability period. A review of these two variables suggests that their effect cannot be raised much for prevailing socioeconomic and cultural reasons, and any future reduction in fertility in Bangladesh may be largely dependent on increased use of effective birth control methods.     

Fertility on the US-Mexico border

Using Bongaarts' model, the relative importance of the proximate determinants of fertility is explored in five populations on the US-Mexico border. For the groups closest to natural fertility (the two Mexican groups), lactation, use of contraception, and marriage all were moderately important in terms of their direct effect on fertility. For the group with lowest fertility (Anglo-American), contraceptive use was an important factor inhibiting fertility; marriage was important but not nearly as important as contraceptive use. For the two US Mexican-American groups, contraceptive use was an important intermediate variable, not as important as for Anglo-Americans, but more important than it was for the two populations in Mexico. The proportion married was a moderately important factor for the Mexican-American groups. For these five populations the principal differences in fertility rates result from substantial differences in the use of effective contraception. Bongaarts' model proved very useful as an analytical framework in this study.     

More than a leap of faith: the impact of biological and religious correlates on reproductive behavior

Using a conceptual model that integrates both social and biomedical factors of causation, this paper tries to delineate the pathways through which the reproductive characteristics of a multidenominational community are characterized. In total, 5513 historical entries from family reconstitution were available. Selection of data was guided by the inclusion of information about religious affiliation. Only married couples with children as well as single mothers with the relevant information were considered. Of these, 1855 entries were of Roman Catholic (C), 1143 of Lutheran/Protestant (L/P2), and 609 of Reformed Calvinist (R) denomination. The analysis documented differential nuptiality and fertility patterns, which at first glance may be interpreted along religious lines. However, the paper attempts to show that these various sociocultural patterns associated with religious behavior are merely proximate determinants, while the ultimate causes are biological in nature (i.e., differential parental age at marriage or birth, different parity progression regimes, differences in median interpregnancy interval, as well as highly variable sibship size within the denominational groups).     

Analyzing infant mortality with geoadditive categorical regression models: a case study for Nigeria

In this paper, we analyze infant mortality in Nigeria based on the data set from the 1999 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS). We investigate spatial patterns at a highly disaggregated level of Nigerian states and consider non-linear effects of mother's age at birth. Time to the occurrence of a child's death can intuitively be considered to be categorical in nature and the determinants of a child's death may differ in different age groups. Thus, it may be desirable to investigate separately the death of a child in the first month and in the remaining 11 months of the first year of life. To avoid selection bias, the data set used for this case study is based on information on children who were born 12 months preceding the survey. Inference is Bayesian and is based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. We find that spatial variation and the determinants of death indeed differ considerably for the two age groups considered.     

Determinants of fertility decline in China, 1981: analysis of intermediate variables.

This study examines the proximate determinants of fertility in China by making use of the data collected by the One-per-Thousand Sample Fertility Survey of 1982. The results indicate that the most important inhibitor of potential fertility is deliberate control. Its contribution to fertility change has been far greater than all other proximate determinants. The marital structure of the population is also an important factor, while lactational infecundability and induced abortion are relatively unimportant. Comparative results by using data from the In-depth Fertility Survey conducted in Shanghai Municipality, Hebei and Shaanxi Provinces in April 1985 agree well in the ranking of the four intermediate factors. The findings point to successful family planning program and government population policies, which propelled the fertility transition to a substantial degree. Further research needs and policy implications of the results of the study are discussed.     

Determinants of fertility decline in China, 1981: Analysis of intermediate variables

Abstract

This study examines the proximate determinants of fertility in China by making use of the data collected by the One‐per‐Thousand Sample Fertility Survey of 1982. The results indicate that the most important inhibitor of potential fertility is deliberate control. Its contribution to fertility change has been far greater than all other proximate determinants. The marital structure of the population is also an important factor, while lactational infecundability and induced abortion are relatively unimportant. Comparative results by using data from the In‐depth Fertility Survey conducted in Shanghai Municipality, Hebei and Shaanxi Provinces in April 1985 agree well in the ranking of the four intermediate factors. The findings point to successful family planning program and government population policies, which propelled the fertility transition to a substantial degree. Further research needs and policy implications of the results of the study are discussed.     

Male fertility attitudes: a neglected dimension in Nigerian fertility research

A sample of 202 male Nigerians enrolled in colleges and graduate schools in the state of Kansas were surveyed to determine their perceptions of population problems in Nigeria; attitudes toward family planning, divorce, and male children; and attitudes toward family size. A major limitation of Nigerian-based fertility research has been the neglect of the role of men in couples' reproductive behavior. The majority of Nigerian students surveyed in this study did not think overpopulation is an impending crisis in Nigeria: 40% thought there are just enough people and 13% indicated there are not enough people. 53% supported the concept of a government population policy, but 67% felt the government should not interfere with family size decisions. Although 84% endorsed the idea that family planning services and information should be available, 69% felt women should not practice family planning without the consent of their husbands. 43% believed a man should divorce his wife if the woman is infertile, unable to produce a male child, or unable to bear the number of children demanded by her husband; in addition, 35% indicated a man should marry a second wife or continue to have children if the couple has 5 daughters and no son. In terms of the value of children, 62% stated that children are wealth or better than wealth, whereas 38% claimed that children use up wealth. Duration of stay in the US was inversely correlated with the number of children considered too many, and the number of male children already born was an important determinant of future family size expectations. In general, it appears that level of education and exposure to US standards do not have a major impact on fertility values among Nigerians, particularly the desire for male children. Educated Nigerian men are an important target for population education, however, because they dominate and control many of the structural, behavioral, and cultural dimensions of fertility behavior.     

Kin influences on fertility in Thailand: Effects and mechanisms

It has been suggested that human mothers are cooperative breeders, as they need help from others to successfully raise offspring. Studies working under this framework have found correlations between the presence of kin and both child survival and female fertility rates. This study seeks to understand the proximate mechanisms by which kin influence fertility using data from the 1987 Thailand Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), a nationally representative sample of 6775 women. Kin influence is measured by the length of time couples live with the husband's or wife's parents after marriage. Event history analysis, multilevel modeling and structural equation modeling are used to investigate both fertility outcomes and potential pathways through which postnuptial residence may influence fertility outcomes, including employment status, maternal and child outcomes, contraceptive use, breastfeeding duration, and age at marriage. We show that living virilocally (with husband's kin after marriage) increases total fertility by shortening time from marriage to first birth, and increasing the likelihood of progression to each subsequent birth. These effects are mediated through correlations between virilocal residence and earlier age at marriage as well as delayed initiation of contraceptive use. We find no influence of husband's kin on maternal or child outcomes. Living uxorilocally (with wife's kin after marriage) also reduces age at marriage, shortens time from marriage to first birth and (marginally) improves child survivorship, but has no effect on other child and maternal outcomes or progression to subsequent births and results in a similar number of living children as women living neolocally.     

Ethnicity and fertility in Nigeria

Using a sample of Hausa-Fulani, Yoruba, Ibo, and all other women from the 1990 Nigerian Demographic and Health Survey, this study examines ethnic fertility differentials in Nigeria within the context of the social characteristics and cultural hypotheses. Among all women, we find the net fertility of Hausa-Fulani women to be lower than that of Other women; with no statistically significant difference in the net fertility of Ibo, Yourba, and Other women. But, among currently married women, we find the net fertility of Hausa-Fulani and Yoruba women to be lower than that of Other women, while the net fertility of Ibo women is higher than that of Other women. Overall, the findings of this study are more consistent with the cultural hypothesis, because statistically significant fertility differentials by ethnicity remain, even after controlling for selected socioeconomic and demographic variables.     

The estimation of natural fertility: A micro approach

Abstract

The estimation of natural fertility has heretofore been confined to population aggregates. This paper presents a technique for estimating natural fertility at the household level for developing countries with some practice of deliberate family size limitation and applies it to micro‐level WFS data for Sri Lanka and Colombia for females aged 35–44 in intact marriages. The technique is based on a proximate determinants equation estimated as part of a model that takes account of the interdependence between use of fertility control and natural fertility. To evaluate the results, the mean and household level estimates of natural fertility for each country are first compared with actual fertility; then mean estimates for each country are compared with macro‐level estimates of natural fertility based on three other methods. Finally, the implications of the analysis for the proximate sources of intercountry and intracountry variations in natural fertility are examined. The results suggest that the present approach yields plausible quantitative estimates of natural fertility and reasonable analytical results.     

Ideal versus actual: the contradiction in number of children born to Nigerian women

Although desired family size is often different from actual family size, the dynamics of this difference are not well understood. This paper examines the patterns and determinants of the difference between desired and actual number of children (unmet fertility desires) among women aged 15-49 years using pooled data from the 1990, 1999 and 2003 Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys (NDHSs). The results show that more than two-thirds of the sample have unmet fertility desires (18.1% have more while 52.4% have fewer than desired). It was found that early and late childbearing increased the odds of unmet fertility desires. Also, women with low levels of education, from poor households, rural residents as well as those who had experienced child death were at a higher risk of unmet fertility desires in the multivariate context. The study highlights the policy and programme implications of the findings.     

Biological and behavioral determinants of fertility in Tierra del Fuego

The reproductive history of 182 women in postreproductive life or near menopause from the Chilean part of Tierra del Fuego was traced back by means of familial interviews. These postmenopausal women represent the population since almost the beginning of the settlement, and their reproductive years were spent on the island. Path analysis was applied to analyze fertility determinants of these women and to propose a complex model of interconnections among factors. The reproductive history of these women is characterized by a long fertile span, a short childbearing period, and low fertility. Age at menarche is relatively late, and the age of the women at first birth is mainly determined by their late age at marriage. The use of contraception is related to both spacing and stopping behaviors. The late age of women at marriage, the rhythm of conception, and practices of contraception are proposed as the main determinants of fertility in Tierra del Fuego.     

Genome size in arthropods; different roles of phylogeny,habitat and life history in insects and crustaceans

Despite the major role of genome size for physiology, ecology, and evolution, there is still mixed evidence with regard to proximate and ultimate drivers. The main causes of large genome size are proliferation of noncoding elements and/or duplication events. The relative role and interplay between these proximate causes and the evolutionary patterns shaped by phylogeny, life history traits or environment are largely unknown for the arthropods. Genome size shows a tremendous variability in this group, and it has a major impact on a range of fitness‐related parameters such as growth, metabolism, life history traits, and for many species also body size. In this study, we compared genome size in two major arthropod groups, insects and crustaceans, and related this to phylogenetic patterns and parameters affecting ambient temperature (latitude, depth, or altitude), insect developmental mode, as well as crustacean body size and habitat, for species where data were available. For the insects, the genome size is clearly phylogeny‐dependent, reflecting primarily their life history and mode of development, while for crustaceans there was a weaker association between genome size and phylogeny, suggesting life cycle strategies and habitat as more important determinants. Maximum observed latitude and depth, and their combined effect, showed positive, and possibly phylogenetic independent, correlations with genome size for crustaceans. This study illustrate the striking difference in genome sizes both between and within these two major groups of arthropods, and that while living in the cold with low developmental rates may promote large genomes in marine crustaceans, there is a multitude of proximate and ultimate drivers of genome size.     

Explaining the Role of Proximate Determinants on Fertility Decline among Poor and Non-Poor in Asian Countries

ObjectivesWe examined the overall contributions of the poor and non-poor in fertility decline across the Asian countries. Further, we analyzed the direct and indirect factors that determine the reproductive behaviour of two distinct population sub-groups.DesignData from several new rounds of DHS surveys are available over the past few years. The DHS provides cross-nationally comparable and useful data on fertility, family planning, maternal and child health along with the other information. Six selected Asian countries namely: Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Nepal, Philippines, and Vietnam are considered for the purpose of the study. Three rounds of DHS surveys for each country (except Vietnam) are considered in the present study.MethodsEconomic status is measured by computing a “wealth index”, i.e. a composite indicator constructed by aggregating data on asset ownership and housing characteristics using principal components analysis (PCA). Computed household wealth index has been broken into three equal parts (33.3 percent each) and the lowest and the highest 33.3 percent is considered as poor and non-poor respectively. The Bongaarts model was employed to quantify the contribution of each of the proximate determinants of fertility among poor and non-poor women.ResultsFertility reduction across all population subgroups is now an established fact despite the diversity in the level of socio-economic development in Asian countries. It is clear from the analysis that fertility has declined irrespective of economic status at varying degrees within and across the countries which can be attributed to the increasing level of contraceptive use especially among poor women. Over the period of time changing marriage pattern and induced abortion are playing an important role in reducing fertility among poor women.ConclusionsFertility decline among majority of the poor women across the Asian countries is accompanied by high prevalence of contraceptive use followed by changing marriage pattern and induced abortion.