How Population Growth Affects Linkage Disequilibrium

The “LD curve” relates the linkage disequilibrium (LD) between pairs of nucleotide sites to the distance that separates them along the chromosome. The shape of this curve reflects natural selection, admixture between populations, and the history of population size. This article derives new results about the last of these effects. When a population expands in size, the LD curve grows steeper, and this effect is especially pronounced following a bottleneck in population size. When a population shrinks, the LD curve rises but remains relatively flat. As LD converges toward a new equilibrium, its time path may not be monotonic. Following an episode of growth, for example, it declines to a low value before rising toward the new equilibrium. These changes happen at different rates for different LD statistics. They are especially slow for estimates of σd2, which therefore allow inferences about ancient population history. For the human population of Europe, these results suggest a history of population growth.     

Population and prehistory II: space-limited human populations in constant environments

We present a population model to examine the forces that determined the quality and quantity of human life in early agricultural societies where cultivable area is limited. The model is driven by the non-linear and interdependent relationships between the age distribution of a population, its behavior and technology, and the nature of its environment. The common currency in the model is the production of food, on which age-specific rates of birth and death depend. There is a single non-trivial equilibrium population at which productivity balances caloric needs. One of the most powerful controls on equilibrium hunger level is fertility control. Gains against hunger are accompanied by decreases in population size. Increasing worker productivity does increase equilibrium population size but does not improve welfare at equilibrium. As a case study we apply the model to the population of a Polynesian valley before European contact.     

Important role of genetic drift in rapid polygenic adaptation

We analyzed a model to determine the factors that facilitate or limit rapid polygenic adaptation. This model includes population genetic terms of mutation and both directional and stabilizing selection on a highly polygenic trait in a diploid population of finite size. First, we derived the equilibrium distribution of the allele frequencies of the multilocus model by diffusion approximation. This formula describing the equilibrium allele frequencies as a mutation‐selection‐drift balance was examined by computer simulation using parameter values inferred for human height, a well‐studied polygenic trait. Second, assuming that a sudden environmental shift of the fitness optimum occurs while the population is in equilibrium, we analyzed the adaptation of the trait to the new optimum. The speed at which the trait mean approaches the new optimum increases with the equilibrium genetic variance. Thus, large population size and/or large mutation rate may facilitate rapid adaptation. Third, the contribution of an individual locus i to polygenic adaptation depends on the compound parameter , where is the effect size, the equilibrium frequency of the trait‐increasing allele of this locus, and . Thus, only loci with large values of this parameter contribute coherently to polygenic adaptation. Given that mutation rates are relatively small, this is more likely in large populations, in which the effects of drift are limited.     

Impact of ancestral populations on postzygotic isolation in allopatric speciation

Postzygotic isolation evolves due to an accumulation of substitutions (potentially deleterious alleles in hybrids) in populations that have become geographically isolated. These potentially deleterious alleles might also be maintained in ancestral populations before geographic isolation. We used an individual-based model to examine the effect of the genetic state of an ancestral population on the evolution of postzygotic isolation after geographic isolation of a population. The results showed that the number of loci at which degenerative alleles are fixed in an ancestral population at equilibrium significantly affects the evolutionary rates of postzygotic isolation between descendant allopatric populations. Our results suggest that: (1) a severe decrease in population size (e.g., less than ten individuals) is not necessary for the rapid evolution of postzygotic isolation (e.g., <10,000 generation); (2) rapid speciation can occur when there is a large difference in the equilibrium number of accumulated degenerative alleles between ancestral and descendant populations; and (3) in an ancestral population maintained at a small effective population size for a long period of time, postzygotic isolation rarely evolves if back mutations that restore the function of degenerative alleles are limited.     

Linkage Disequilibrium Decay and Past Population History in the Human Genome

The fluctuation of population size has not been well studied in the previous studies of theoretical linkage disequilibrium (LD) expectation. In this study, an improved theoretical prediction of LD decay was derived to account for the effects of changes in effective population sizes. The equation was used to estimate effective population size (N_e) assuming a constant N_e and LD at equilibrium, and these N_e estimates implied the past changes of N_e for a certain number of generations until equilibrium, which differed based on recombination rate. As the influence of recent population history on the N_e estimates is larger than old population history, recent changes in population size can be inferred more accurately than old changes. The theoretical predictions based on this improved expression showed accurate agreement with the simulated values. When applied to human genome data, the detailed recent history of human populations was obtained. The inferred past population history of each population showed good correspondence with historical studies. Specifically, four populations (three African ancestries and one Mexican ancestry) showed population growth that was significantly less than that of other populations, and two populations originated from China showed prominent exponential growth. During the examination of overall LD decay in the human genome, a selection pressure on chromosome 14, the gephyrin gene, was observed in all populations.     

Effect of changes in population size on genetic microdifferentiation

Changes in local population size are expected to have an effect on the degree of genetic microdifferentiation. A decrease in population size is expected to lead to an increase in microdifferentiation, and an increase in population size to a decrease in microdifferentiation. These expectations are routinely used with historical and/or demographic data to evaluate changes in estimates of microdifferentiation obtained over time for human populations. Here I look more closely at these expectations by using simple mathematical models that relate a change in average effective population size to the degree of microdifferentiation. The direction of change in microdifferentiation is influenced by the migration structure of the populations and the proximity of the region to an equilibrium state. A change in population size always leads to a new equilibrium, but the speed at which this new equilibrium is reached depends on migration and time depth. A decline in population size in one generation always leads to an immediate increase in the degree of microdifferentiation. An increase in population size in one generation could lead to an initial decrease or increase in the degree of microdifferentiation or to no change at all. Consideration of the parameters of the models shows under what conditions such changes occur. The relevance of these models is explored using summary data from a number of human populations.     

Equilibrium Distributions of Populations of Biological Species on Networks of Social Sites

ABSTRACT

We investigate the problem of how a population of biological species would distribute over a given network of social sites so that their social contacts through the connected sites can be maximized (or minimized). This problem has applications in modelling the behaviours of social (or solitary) species such as the development of social groups in human society and the spread of solitary animals in distant habitats. We show that this problem can be formulated as an evolutionary game, with the equilibrium state of the game corresponding to a strategy for choosing the residing sites, each with a certain probability, or equivalently, to a distribution of the population on these sites. The game has a symmetric payoff matrix, and can therefore be analyzed via the solution of a corresponding quadratic programme: An equilibrium strategy of the game is a KKT point of the quadratic programme, which may be a local maximizer, local minimizer, or saddle point, but it is evolutionarily stable if and only if it is a strict local maximizer. In general, with a goal to maximize the social contacts, the species tend to spread on network sites where there are dense connections such as a complete subnetwork or in other words, a network clique. We show that at equilibrium, the population may or may not distribute on a network clique, but the stability of the equilibrium state does depend on the structure of the selected subnetwork. In particular, we show that the distribution of the population on a maximal network clique is evolutionarily stable unless the clique is ‘attached’ to another clique of the same or larger size, when the population may be able to switch or expand to the neighbouring clique to increase or at least maintain its total amount of contacts. However, the distribution of the population on a non-clique subnetwork is always evolutionarily unstable or weakly evolutionarily stable at the very best, for the population can always move away from its current distribution without decreasing its total amount of contacts. We conclude that the strategies to spread on maximal network cliques are not only equilibrium strategies but also evolutionarily more stable than those on non-clique subnetworks, thus theoretically reaffirming the evolutionary advantages of joining social cliques in social networks for social species.     

Extinction of populations due to inbreeding depression with demographic disturbances

The process of population extinction due to inbreeding depression with constant demographic disturbances every generation is analysed using a population genetic and demographic model. The demographic disturbances introduced into the model represent loss of population size that is induced by any kind of human activities, e.g. through hunting and destruction of habitats. The genetic heterozygosity among recessive deleterious genes and the population size are assumed to be in equilibrium before the demographic disturbances start. The effects of deleterious mutations are represented by decreases in the growth rate and carrying capacity of a population. Numerical simulations indicate rapid extinction due to synergistic interaction between inbreeding depression and declining population size for realistic ranges of per-locus mutation rate, equilibrium population size, intrinsic rate of population growth, and strength of demographic disturbances. Large populations at equilibrium are more liable to extinction when disturbed due to inbreeding depression than small populations. This is a consequence of the fact that large populations maintain more recessive deleterious mutations than small populations. The rapid extinction predicted in the present study indicates the importance of the demographic history of a population in relation to extinction due to inbreeding depression.     

The evolutionary dynamics of the lexical matrix

The lexical matrix is an integral part of the human language system. It provides the link between word form and word meaning. A simple lexical matrix is also at the center of any animal communication system, where it defines the associations between form and meaning of animal signals. We study the evolution and population dynamics of the lexical matrix. We assume that children learn the lexical matrix of their parents. This learning process is subject to mistakes: (i) children may not acquire all lexical items of their parents (incomplete learning); and (ii) children might acquire associations between word forms and word meanings that differ from their parents’ lexical items (incorrect learning). We derive an analytic framework that deals with incomplete learning. We calculate the maximum error rate that is compatible with a population maintaining a coherent lexical matrix of a given size. We calculate the equilibrium distribution of the number of lexical items known to individuals. Our analytic investigations are supplemented by numerical simulations that describe both incomplete and incorrect learning, and other extensions.     

Population and prehistory I: Food-dependent population growth in constant environments

We present a demographic model that describes the feedbacks between food supply, human mortality and fertility rates, and labor availability in expanding populations, where arable land area is not limiting. This model provides a quantitative framework to describe how environment, technology, and culture interact to influence the fates of preindustrial agricultural populations. We present equilibrium conditions and derive approximations for the equilibrium population growth rate, food availability, and other food-dependent measures of population well-being. We examine how the approximations respond to environmental changes and to human choices, and find that the impact of environmental quality depends upon whether it manifests through agricultural yield or maximum (food-independent) survival rates. Human choices can complement or offset environmental effects: greater labor investments increase both population growth and well-being, and therefore can counteract lower agricultural yield, while fertility control decreases the growth rate but can increase or decrease well-being. Finally we establish equilibrium stability criteria, and argue that the potential for loss of local stability at low population growth rates could have important consequences for populations that suffer significant environmental or demographic shocks.     

Polymorphism in sexual versus non-sexual disease transmission

Pathogens causing sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) often consist of related strains that cause non-sexually transmitted, or ''ordinary infectious'', diseases (OIDs). We use differential equation models of single populations to derive conditions under which a genetic variant with one (e.g. sexual) transmission mode can invade and successfully displace a genetic variant with a different (e.g. non-sexual) transmission mode. Invasion by an STD is easier if the equilibrium population size in the presence of an OID is smaller; conversely an OID can invade more easily if the equilibrium size of the population with the STD is larger. Invasion of an STD does not depend on the degree of sterility caused by the infection, but does depend on the added mortality caused by a resident OID. In contrast, the ability of an OID to invade a population at equilibrium with an STD decreases as the degree of sterility caused by the STD increases. When equilibrium population sizes for a population infected with an STD are above the point at which non-sexual contacts exceed sexual contacts (the sexual–social crossover point) and when equilibrium population sizes for an OID are below this point, there can be a stable genetic polymorphism for transmission mode. This is most likely when the STD is mildly sterilizing, and the OID causes low or intermediate levels of added mortality. Because we assume the strains are competitively equivalent and there are no heterogeneities associated with the transmission process, the polymorphism is maintained by density-dependent selection brought about by pathogen effects on population size.     

Positive and negative feedbacks in human population dynamics: future equilibrium or collapse?

The future number of people inhabiting the planet will influence the impact over natural ecosystems. In consequence, the growth of the human population represents one of the most important challenges for the near future. In this paper we used population dynamic theory to analyze human population growth. The results suggest that human population growth exhibited important fluctuations during the last 2000 years. In particular two different phases during the last 400 years can be distinguished, a positive relationship with population size implying positive feedback processes, followed by a negative relationship with population size – suggesting that negative feedback processes have been operating during the last 45 years. Our results support the view that ecological concepts derived from population ecology can be useful for understanding human dynamics. While cooperation at low densities in animal populations reminds us the Boserupian view that population growth induces economic development and higher standards of living, competition at high densities reconciles ecological theory with the original Malthusian view. We conclude that the present reduction in human per capita growth rates appears to be consequence of different limiting factors operating in combination around the globe in a similar manner, except in Africa where the factors operating appears to be very different. Humans may achieve a stable equilibrium population in the next century but the possibility of a population collapse caused by second‐order oscillations should be considered.     

Mutation and selection in a large population

In this paper we study a large, but finite population, in which mutation and selection occur at a single genetic locus in a diploid organism. We provide theoretical results for the equilibrium allele frequencies, their variances and covariances and their equilibrium distribution, when the population size is larger than the reciprocal of the mean allelic mutation rate. We are also able to infer that the equilibrium distribution of allele frequencies takes the form of a constrained multivariate Gaussian distribution. Our results provide a rapid way of obtaining useful information in the case of complex mutation and selection schemes when the population size is large. We present numerical simulations to test the applicability of our theoretical formulations. The results of these simulations are in very reasonable agreement with the theoretical predictions.     

Oscillations in a size-structured prey-predator model

This article introduces a predator–prey model with the prey structured by body size, based on reports in the literature that predation rates are prey-size specific. The model is built on the foundation of the one-species physiologically structured models studied earlier. Three types of equilibria are found: extinction, multiple prey-only equilibria and possibly multiple predator–prey coexistence equilibria. The stabilities of the equilibria are investigated. Comparison is made with the underlying ODE Lotka–Volterra model. It turns out that the ODE model can exhibit sustain oscillations if there is an Allee effect in the net reproduction rate, that is the net reproduction rate grows for some range of the prey’s population size. In contrast, it is shown that the structured PDE model can exhibit sustain oscillations even if the net reproductive rate is strictly declining with prey population size. We find that predation, even size-non-specific linear predation can destabilize a stable prey-only equilibrium, if reproduction is size specific and limited to individuals of large enough size. Furthermore, we show that size-specific predation can also destabilize the predator–prey equilibrium in the PDE model. We surmise that size-specific predation allows for temporary prey escape which is responsible for destabilization in the predator–prey dynamics.     

The equilibrium concept and density dependence tests What does it all mean?

Summary Tests of density dependent regulation of population size depend on the concept of equilibrium population size. Such an equilibrium is a purely theoretical construct whose existence in the field is debatable and whose value cannot be measured. An equilibrium is supposed to fluctuate in time, but the extent of the fluctuations relative to those of the population size is unknowable. It is impossible to separate a fluctuating population size from a fluctuating equilibrium value and from fluctuating deviations from an equilibrium value. Because it cannot be determined whether a given population size is above, at, or below equilibrium, the course of population size in unpredictable and density dependence tests cannot be expected to produce useful results. Stabilization tests may provide a more useful alternative.     

Evolutionary Behaviour,Trade-Offs and Cyclic and Chaotic Population Dynamics

Many studies of the evolution of life-history traits assume that the underlying population dynamical attractor is stable point equilibrium. However, evolutionary outcomes can change significantly in different circumstances. We present an analysis based on adaptive dynamics of a discrete-time demographic model involving a trade-off whose shape is also an important determinant of evolutionary behaviour. We derive an explicit expression for the fitness in the cyclic region and consequently present an adaptive dynamic analysis which is algebraic. We do this fully in the region of 2-cycles and (using a symbolic package) almost fully for 4-cycles. Simulations illustrate and verify our results. With equilibrium population dynamics, trade-offs with accelerating costs produce a continuously stable strategy (CSS) whereas trade-offs with decelerating costs produce a non-ES repellor. The transition to 2-cycles produces a discontinuous change: the appearance of an intermediate region in which branching points occur. The size of this region decreases as we move through the region of 2-cycles. There is a further discontinuous fall in the size of the branching region during the transition to 4-cycles. We extend our results numerically and with simulations to higher-period cycles and chaos. Simulations show that chaotic population dynamics can evolve from equilibrium and vice-versa.     

Population Growth Inflates the Per-Individual Number of Deleterious Mutations and Reduces Their Mean Effect

This study addresses the question of how purifying selection operates during recent rapid population growth such as has been experienced by human populations. This is not a straightforward problem because the human population is not at equilibrium: population genetics predicts that, on the one hand, the efficacy of natural selection increases as population size increases, eliminating ever more weakly deleterious variants; on the other hand, a larger number of deleterious mutations will be introduced into the population and will be more likely to increase in their number of copies as the population grows. To understand how patterns of human genetic variation have been shaped by the interaction of natural selection and population growth, we examined the trajectories of mutations with varying selection coefficients, using computer simulations. We observed that while population growth dramatically increases the number of deleterious segregating sites in the population, it only mildly increases the number carried by each individual. Our simulations also show an increased efficacy of natural selection, reflected in a higher fraction of deleterious mutations eliminated at each generation and a more efficient elimination of the most deleterious ones. As a consequence, while each individual carries a larger number of deleterious alleles than expected in the absence of growth, the average selection coefficient of each segregating allele is less deleterious. Combined, our results suggest that the genetic risk of complex diseases in growing populations might be distributed across a larger number of more weakly deleterious rare variants.     

A multilocus-multiallele analysis of frequency-dependent selection induced by intraspecific competition

The study of the mechanisms that maintain genetic variation has a long history in population genetics. We analyze a multilocus-multiallele model of frequency- and density-dependent selection in a large randomly mating population. The number of loci and the number of alleles per locus are arbitrary. The n loci are assumed to contribute additively to a quantitative character under stabilizing or directional selection as well as under frequency-dependent selection caused by intraspecific competition. We assume the strength of stabilizing selection to be weak, whereas the strength of frequency dependence may be arbitrary. Density-dependence is induced by population regulation. Our main result is a characterization of the equilibrium structure and its stability properties in terms of all parameters. It turns out that no equilibrium exists with more than two alleles segregating per locus. We give necessary and sufficient conditions on the strength of frequency dependence to ensure the maintenance of multilocus polymorphism. We also give explicit formulas on the number of polymorphic loci maintained at equilibrium. These results are based on the assumption that selection is sufficiently weak compared with recombination, so that linkage equilibrium can be assumed. If additionally the population size is assumed to be constant, we prove that the dynamics of the model form a generalized gradient system. For the model in its general form we are able to derive necessary and sufficient conditions for the stability of the monomorphic equilibria. Furthermore, we briefly analyze a special symmetric two-locus two-allele model for a constant population size but allowing for linkage disequilibrium. Finally, we analyze a single diallelic locus with dominance to illustrate the complications that can occur if the assumption of additivity is relaxed.     

具有智能生物种群的演化:学习方式对群体演化的影响(英文)

在Penna model基础上引入智能因素,建立了具有学习能力的生物演化模型.考虑智能、经验和环境因素定义了个体的学习方式,讨论了学习方式及学习的知识类型对种群演化的影响.从所得结果看出个体只有充分利用环境,才能使种群规模和群体平均知识有明显的增加.然而随着对外界环境利用程度的加强,种群的平均智能却是在下降,这一点对于联系越来越紧密的人类来说真是值得深思的一个问题.