A regression approach to the projection of U.S. fertility based on past fertility data

Abstract

The method of fertility projection used by the U.S. Bureau of the Census involves assumptions about the ultimate cohort total fertility rate and the ultimate cohort mean age at childbearing based on recent levels of fertility and women's birth expectations. This paper provides an outline of a general regression approach to fertility projection based on past data which would generate these two ultimate cohort characteristics. The technique is illustrated by using the U.S. single‐year age‐specific fertility rates up to 1986 for total women and projecting them indefinitely into the future until they become stable for both calendar years and cohorts.     

On the convergence of Das Gupta's model of fertility projection.

A regression model expressing the age-specific fertility rates at a given point of time as a variable dependent upon the same at the preceding points of time has been developed by Das Gupta for purposes of fertility projection. The model, judged by the values of the multiple correlation coefficients, appears to work very well with the U.S. data set, and it also produces limiting values of the fertility rates when the projection is carried far into the future. The conditions of convergence of such a model have been determined in this paper according to which the model's usefulness for purposes of long-term projection of fertility rates appears to be severely restricted.     

Canadian fertility trends in perspective

This paper examines the broad movements of Canadian period and cohort fertility over the past 100 years, and compares them with corresponding trends in the US and other industrialized countries. The main movement in Canada was a decline in fertility extending from the 19th century to the present, interrupted in the 1940s and 1950s by a baby boom. Between 1871 and 1937 the total fertility rate (TFR) fell at about an average of 1.4% annually. The rate of fall in the US was similar, with the result that in the late 1930s the Canadian TFR was about 20% that of the US. The fertility boom that followed was steeper in the US than in Canada, and in the downswing that later followed, the rate of decline was similar in the 2 countries (3.4-4% annual average). But, the decline continued longer-- indeed still continues--in Canada, whereas the TFR in the US reached its lowest point in 1976. Moreover, the recent decline in fertility has been more severe in Canada than in almost any other industrialized country. The TFR relates to fertility in a single year and is highly sensitive to short-term changes in the timing of births. For the purposes of understanding and explaining long-term trends in fertility, the completed fertility rate (CFR) is a better index because it measures the ultimate family size of cohorts. Cohort fertility can be seen to fluctuate much less than does period fertility. In both the US and Canada, the peak cohorts, born in the early 1930s, had roughly the same completed fertility, and later cohorts continued to remain closely in step as the CFR fell sharply. In Canada the fall continues, though at a reduced rate, in the latest cohorts for which there is information. Apart from differences in amplitude, the dates of turning points and the shapes of the TFR and CFR curves of Canadian fertility are fairly similar. The long decline in cohort fertility is largely explained by the decrease in the proportions of families of 6 or more children. During the baby boom, for Catholics and non-Catholics alike, the proportion of ever-married women remaining childless fell by about 40%, the proportion having 2 children changed little, and the proportions having 3,4 and 5 children tended to increase substantially. The crucial difference between the 2 groups was in the proportions of women having 6 or more children. For non-Catholics, the proportion fell by over 4% from a high level. For non-Catholics, on the other hand, the proportion rose somewhat, though even after the rise, it was barely more than 1/2 the level to which the Catholic proportion had declined. Among Catholics, the effect of the massive decline in the proportion of women having 6 or more children was to swamp the effects of the increase in the proportions of women having 3, 4 and 5 children. The net effect was that fertility declined. Among non-Catholics, however, the comparable increases in the proportions of families of 3, 4 and 5 children, were not offset by any fall in the proportion of larger families, with the result that a baby boom occurred.     

Marketable licenses for babies: Boulding's proposal revisited.

In 1964 the economist Kenneth Boulding suggested marketable licenses for babies as a form of fertility control. The idea was not treated seriously or in-depth at the time, but events of 1974 and recession have forced the American people to confront problems posed by continual population increase. Boulding never proposed enforcement regulations for his project. Public opinion might create voluntary compliance, but that is unlikely. One proposal for monitoring births is to administer a drug at puberty so that it would produce long-term sterility reversible only through injection of another drug. If the government could purchase child licenses it could also regulate extensively and precisely the rate of population increase. Since an immediate end to natural increase in the U.S. is unattainable despite fertility no higher than replacement level, the variation in the crude birth and death rates can exist despite the fact that the cohort net reproduction rate stays constant. Boulding's proposal makes no mention of age of licensing. If women were given a license to have a baby before age 25, total future population growth could be reduced. Boulding suggested each woman receive child-license units in the form of deci-child units and provide enough deci-child units so that, on average, each cohort of women would exactly reproduce itself.     

A synthetic biosocial model of fertility transition: Testing the relative contribution of embodied capital theory,changing cultural norms,and women's labor force participation

This article presents a biosocial model of fertility decline, which integrates ecological‐economic and informational‐cultural hypotheses of fertility transition in a unified theoretical framework. The model is then applied to empirical data collected among 500 women from San Borja, Bolivia, a population undergoing fertility transition. Using a combination of event history analysis, multiple regression, and structural equation modeling, we examine the pathways by which education responds to birth cohort, parental education and network ties, and how age at first birth and total fertility, in turn, respond to birth cohort, social network ties, education, expectations about parental investment, work, and contraceptive use. We find that in addition to secular trends in education, respondent's education is associated with the education of parents, the investment she received from them, and the education of older siblings. Total fertility has dropped over time, partly in response to increased education; moreover, the behavior of other women in a woman's social network predicts both initiation of reproduction and total fertility, while expected parental investment in offspring negatively predicts total fertility. Involvement in paid work that is incompatible with childcare is associated with a later age of first reproduction, but not subsequent fertility. Contraceptive use partially mediates the effect of education and birth cohort on total fertility, but is not a mediator of the effect of social network or expected parental investment on total fertility. Overall, the empirical results provide support for a biosocial model of fertility decline, particularly the embodied capital and cultural pathways. Am J Phys Anthropol 154:322–333, 2014. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Comparison of standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) obtained from use of reference populations based on a company-wide registry cohort to SMRs calculated against local and national rates

The DuPont Company has maintained a mortality registry for all active and pensioned U.S. employees since 1957. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) for each plant site in the U.S. can be calculated based on the comparison with the entire U.S. DuPont population or with a regional subset of DuPont employees. We compared the SMRs derived from a large, international cohort mortality study of chloroprene workers (IISRP study) with those derived from the entire DuPont Registry and appropriate subpopulations of the registry for two U.S. neoprene plants--Louisville (Kentucky) and Pontchartrain (Louisiana). SMRs from the IISRP study for the Louisville cohort based on national rates for all causes of death, all cancers, respiratory cancer, and liver cancer are higher than those based on local mortality rates. Both the national and local comparisons (several counties surrounding each plant) for all-cancer SMRs are lower than 1.0, the local comparison being statistically significantly reduced. In contrast, the SMRs based on the total U.S. DuPont worker mortality rates for all causes of death (1.13), all cancers (1.11), and respiratory cancers (1.37) are statistically significantly increased. The SMR for liver cancer (1.27), although elevated, is not statistically significant. SMRs based on DuPont Region 1 were closer to 1.0, and the SMR for all cancers was no longer significant. Stratification of the Louisville subcohort of males using the same cumulative exposure categories used in the IISRP study yielded SMRs calculated against DuPont Region 1 that were generally higher than those calculated against U.S. and local rates. Only the third exposure category showed SMRs statistically significantly above 1.0 for all cancers and for cancer of bronchus, trachea, and lung. However, there does not appear to be an exposure-response trend. The SMRs from the IISRP study for the Pontchartrain cohort based on national rates are higher than those based on local rates for all causes of death, but all are less than 1.0. The all-cause SMRs for both local and national comparisons are significantly reduced. There were no deaths from liver cancers observed in this cohort. Comparisons of the Pontchartrain cohort against the total U.S. DuPont worker mortality rates resulted in higher SMRs for all causes of death (0.98), all cancers (1.03), and respiratory cancer (1.08), but none were statistically significant. SMRs based on DuPont Region 2 showed very little change from those based on the total registry. The use of reference rates based on regional workers in the same large company produces SMRs lower than those based on the entire company population (regional socio-cultural effects) but higher than those based on geographically closer local general populations (healthy worker effect). The healthy worker effect is seen in cancer mortality rates as well as in other chronic diseases.     

栽培模式对旱地小麦产量和土壤肥力的影响

通过田间试验,研究地膜覆盖、秸秆还田和种植绿肥对冬小麦籽粒产量和土壤肥力的影响.结果表明: 与传统模式相比,地膜覆盖并不总能提高旱地小麦产量,3年平均产量无显著变化,但降低20～40 cm土壤全氮、有效磷、速效钾、有效硫、有效锌和有效锰含量,对土壤有机质、硝态氮、有效铁和有效铜含量无显著影响.秸秆还田的小麦产量3年平均降低12.1%,收获期0～20 cm土层全氮提高5.8%,20～40 cm土层有效铜含量提高6.2%,而有效磷和有效锰分别降低36.1%和10.2%,对开花期和收获期土壤有机质、硝态氮、速效钾、有效硫、有效锌和有效铁无显著影响.种植绿肥的籽粒产量降低12.1%,同时土壤pH、有效磷和有效硫含量降低,有机质、全氮、硝态氮、有效锌和有效锰均增加,对土壤速效钾、有效铁和有效铜均无显著影响.综上,在旱地土壤肥力较低的条件下,地膜覆盖和秸秆还田不利于土壤肥力的提升,使小麦增产受到限制;种植绿肥培肥效果最好,但应考虑区域降水情况,注意其带来的减产问题.     

基于主成分分析的土壤肥力综合指数评价

以杨凌为研究区域,选择田块尺度为评价单元,采集27个田块土壤,利用模糊数学中综合指数评价模型进行土壤肥力质量评价。经取样数合理性统计分析,27个样点估计研究区域土壤肥力评价能够满足90%置信水平条件下15%和20%的相对误差取样数的精度需求。运用主成分分析,通过计算变量的Norm值筛选速效钾、碳酸钙、全磷、全氮、土壤有机质、CEC、速效磷、全钾进入土壤肥力评价的最小数据库集(MDS),利用非线性隶属度函数实现评价指标量纲归一化且评价单项肥力指标,利用雷达图直观地反映单因素肥力指标在土壤中的状态以及土壤肥力的整体状况,结果表明,全磷和碳酸钙是影响研究区土壤肥力的限制性因子。研究区域在田块评价尺度上的土壤肥力综合指数范围为0.7~0.8。     

Genetic dissection of embryo sac fertility, pollen fertility, and their contributions to spikelet fertility of intersubspecific hybrids in rice

The partial sterility of hybrids has been a major barrier for utilization of the strong heterosis expressed in hybrids between Oryza sativa ssp. indica and O. sativa ssp. japonica. Wide-compatibility varieties, comprising a special class of germplasm, are able to produce fertile hybrids when crossed to both indica and japonica varieties. However, all the work on wide compatibility and majority of studies on indica/japonica hybrid sterility reported so far were based only on spikelet fertility; thus, it is not known to what extent male and female gamete abortions influence hybrid sterility. In this study, we investigated pollen fertility, embryo sac fertility, and spikelet fertility in an F₁ population of 202 true hybrid plants derived from a three-way cross (02428/Nanjing 11//Balilla). A partial regression analysis showed that the pollen and embryo sac fertility contributed almost equally to spikelet fertility. QTL analysis based on a linkage map of 191 polymorphic marker loci identified two QTLs for pollen fertility, one QTL for embryo sac fertility, and three QTLs for spikelet fertility. The S5 locus, previously identified as a locus for wide compatibility by spikelet fertility analysis, is a major locus for embryo sac fertility, and a QTL on chromosome 5 had a major effect on pollen fertility. These two loci coincided with the two major QTLs for spikelet fertility. The study also detected a QTL on chromosome 8, showing a large effect on spikelet fertility but no effect on either pollen or embryo sac fertility. Very little interaction among the QTLs was detected. The implications of the findings in rice breeding programs are discussed.     

The delineation of fertility strategies in a tribal population of India: the Koyas of Koraput District,Orissa

Demographic data collected for a tribal population of India, the Koyas of Koraput District, Orissa, were examined in light of 2 models of reproductive behavior associated with the economic value of children: the replacement effect and son survivorship motivation. Both models are united in the concept that infant/child mortality affects subsequent fertility. The database consists of retrospective fertility histories of Koya women who had completed their reproductive period. The total number was 260, with the total offspring numbering 1407. 2 distinct cohorts of women were formed for the purpose of analysis, separated only by the criterion of offspring survival: women who had experienced infant child mortality (129 women with 739 children); and women who completed their reproductive period without suffering offspring loss of this nature (132 women with 668 children). The cohort without child loss had a mean parity of 5.10, lower than the average parity of 5.73 recorded for the cohort whose reproductive histories included at least 1 infant/child death. Age specific marital fertility and birth interval analyses indicated that this differential was because of biological, not behavioral, factors. The age pattern of fertility of females suffering offspring mortality failed to demonstrate a high rate of childbearing in the later age intervals of the reproductive period, a characteristic pattern of couples attempting to "replace" lost offspring. Birth interval analysis pointed to biological "interval effect," whereby infant/child mortality caused a cessation of lactation and hence a shortening of postpartum amenorrhea. Computer simulation further indicated that the higher fertility differential of the cohort experiencing offspring loss still did not result in high son survivorship values. The findings agree with earlier studies indicating that for predemographic transitional populations, economically motivated fertility strategies are ineffectual.     

Human fertility and fitness optimization

Census and other survey data from across the world reveal major differences in fertility rates between the more economically developed and the less economically developed societies. The former are significantly more likely than the latter to feature families of two children or fewer. Multiple regression analysis shows that, among various indicators of “modernization,” three (female level of education, female gainful employment, and proportion of physicians in the population) account for 71% of the variation in family size; all three variables have strongly significant, direct, and negative effects on fertility. The paper hypothesizes about the possible evolution of a reproductive psychology toward the two-child family and seeks to explain highly depressed rates of reproduction by reference to both ultimate and proximate factors. In some highly developed countries, zero-child and one-child rates of fertility represent together up to 40% of all ever-married women. The findings stress the importance of systematic research toward establishing the proximate factors that are most likely to facilitate or impede fitness optimization—the importance, that is, of surrounding the optimization principle with the logic and ancillary propositions that will give it a greater and more directive reach.     

Inheritance and chromosomal locations of male fertility restoring gene transferred from Aegilops umbellulata Zhuk. to Triticum aestivum L.

Restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) markers were used to map male fertility restoring gene that was transferred from chromosome 6U of Aegilops umbellulata Zhuk. to wheat. Segments of chromosome 6U bearing the gene that restore fertility to T. timopheevi Zhuk. male sterile cytoplasm were identified in all four translocation lines by two probes, BCD21 and BCD342. Lines 040-5,061-1 and 061-4 are T6BL.6BS6U translocations, while line 2114 is a T6AL.6AS-6U translocation. Line 2114 has a much larger 6U chromosomal segment and lower frequency of transmission of male gametes with the alien segment than the other three lines. The restoring gene carried by the 6U segment in 2114 showed high expressivity and complete penetrance. This restoring gene is designated Rf6. A homoeologous chromosome recombination mechanism is discussed for the alien gene transfer.     

Human fertility studies under field conditions. Introduction.

Human fertility is part of biological anthropology embracing human population biology devoted to the analysis of the nature, caused, origin, and development of human variation at molecular, cellular, and whole body levels. The successful outcome of human fertility depends on the interactions of biochemical, physiological, and psychological processes whose disturbance results in slight variations in behavior and even total infertility. The Hutterites in the US have the highest average fertility with over 11 live births/women. Hunter-gatherer groups rarely have more than 4 children/woman. The case of a woman who gave birth to 67 children was recorded. Total infertility often occurs even in noncontracepting societies. The most important factor that determines the character of genetic variation within the human species seems to be comparative population growth, as this was the factor determining which populations spread and which became extinct. The study of the determinants of female fertility has attracted attention recently because pregnancy and motherhood affect daily life, and in turn, reproduction is also affected by daily life. Lactational amenorrhea plays a vital role in child spacing, but the mechanism of breast feeding is complex with factors of duration, frequency, milk production, and suckling frequency interwoven. Female reproduction comprises whole body function, nutrition, body composition (the recent debate on fat stores affecting the onset of fertility), physical work, and mental health all influencing the endocrinological state. Heavy physical labor and intensive training by sportswomen can result in amenorrhea. Beta-endorphins also play a role in lactational amenorrhea along with nutrition and body composition. Infectious and venereal diseases particularly affect fertility, yet genetics protect the placenta against falciparum malaria in sickle-cell trait women.     

Correlations in fertility across generations: can low fertility persist?

Correlations in family size across generations could have a major influence on human population size in the future. Empirical studies have shown that the associations between the fertility of parents and the fertility of children are substantial and growing over time. Despite their potential long-term consequences, intergenerational fertility correlations have largely been ignored by researchers. We present a model of the fertility transition as a cultural process acting on new lifestyles associated with fertility. Differences in parental and social influences on the acquisition of these lifestyles result in intergenerational correlations in fertility. We show different scenarios for future population size based on models that disregard intergenerational correlations in fertility, models with fertility correlations and a single lifestyle, and models with fertility correlations and multiple lifestyles. We show that intergenerational fertility correlations will result in an increase in fertility over time. However, present low-fertility levels may persist if the rapid introduction of new cultural lifestyles continues into the future.     

Differential fertility by intelligence: the role of birth planning

Urban, white, ever-married women, aged 15-44, were sampled in low and high income census tracts in 16 U.S. cities, using a short adaptation of the Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test as a measure of IQ. After analysis of covariance, in which IQ was the independent variable and children ever born (CEB) was the dependent variable, it was found that there is .19 difference between the mean CEB of high- and low-IQ groups when covariables are controlled. It was shown that there was no significant difference in desired family size associated with IQ. But since the low-IQ women have more fertility than high-IQ women, effectiveness of contraceptive methods was examined. Examination showed that lower fertility was achieved by more effective use by the high-IQ women of methods of theoretically similar effectiveness. Also, those women not using a physician administered contraceptive (PAC) in the 3-year study period had unwanted births at about 3 times the rate of those who used PAC for the entire period. Thus, all American women will have to learn to realize their own fertility goals.     

Low fertility increases descendant socioeconomic position but reduces long-term fitness in a modern post-industrial society

Adaptive accounts of modern low human fertility argue that small family size maximizes the inheritance of socioeconomic resources across generations and may consequently increase long-term fitness. This study explores the long-term impacts of fertility and socioeconomic position (SEP) on multiple dimensions of descendant success in a unique Swedish cohort of 14 000 individuals born during 1915–1929. We show that low fertility and high SEP predict increased descendant socioeconomic success across four generations. Furthermore, these effects are multiplicative, with the greatest benefits of low fertility observed when SEP is high. Low fertility and high SEP do not, however, predict increased descendant reproductive success. Our results are therefore consistent with the idea that modern fertility limitation represents a strategic response to the local costs of rearing socioeconomically competitive offspring, but contradict adaptive models suggesting that it maximizes long-term fitness. This indicates a conflict in modern societies between behaviours promoting socioeconomic versus biological success. This study also makes a methodological contribution, demonstrating that the number of offspring strongly predicts long-term fitness and thereby validating use of fertility data to estimate current selective pressures in modern populations. Finally, our findings highlight that differences in fertility and SEP can have important long-term effects on the persistence of social inequalities across generations.     

Period and cohort dynamics in fertility norms at the onset of the demographic transition in Kenya 1978-1998

A characteristic of African pre-transitional fertility regimes is large ideal family size. This has been used to support claims of cultural entrenchment of high fertility. Yet in Kenya fertility rates have fallen. In this paper this fall is explored in relation to trends in fertility norms and attitudes using four sequential cross-sectional surveys spanning the fertility transition in Kenya (1978, 1984, 1989 and 1998). The most rapid fall in the reported ideal family size occurred between 1984 and 1989, whilst the most rapid fall in the total fertility rate occurred 5 to 10 years later, between 1989 and 1998. Thus these data, spanning the fertility transition in Kenya, support the traditional demographic model that demand for fertility limitation drives fertility decline. These data also suggest that the decline in fertility norms over time was partly a period effect, as the reported ideal family size was seen to fall simultaneously in all age cohorts, and partly a cohort effect, as older age cohorts reporting higher ideal family sizes were replaced by younger cohorts reporting lower ideal family sizes. These data also suggest that a new fertility norm of four children may have developed by 1989 and continued until 1998. This is consistent with, and perhaps could have been used to predict, the stall in the Kenyan fertility decline after 1998.     

基于投影寻踪回归方法对李小食心虫种群空间格局的分析

基于投影寻踪回归方法,对李小食心虫Grapholitha funebrana在美国杏李上分布的多维数据进行投影降维和寻优处理,结果表明美国杏李园李小食心虫的空间分布与美国杏李的方位和层次有密切关系,李小食心虫的幼虫主要聚集在美国杏李的中部和外部,并以东面和北面为重,南西两面和内部轻。在方位层次和方位上对李小食心虫的密度进行预测,预测结果与真实值符合优度较高。基于投影寻踪回归方法可以减少因变量太多所带来的误差影响,自变量越多估计值越精确变量之间微小的差距都能显示出很高的权重值。     

Inheritance and chromosomal locations of male fertility restoring gene transferred from Aegilops umbellulata Zhuk. to Triticum aestivum L.

Restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) markers were used to map male fertility restoring gene that was transferred from chromosome 6U of Aegilops umbellulata Zhuk. to wheat. Segments of chromosome 6U bearing the gene that restore fertility to T. timopheevi Zhuk. male sterile cytoplasm were identified in all four translocation lines by two probes, BCD21 and BCD342. Lines 040-5,061-1 and 061-4 are T6BL.6BS6U translocations, while line 2114 is a T6AL.6AS-6U translocation. Line 2114 has a much larger 6U chromosomal segment and lower frequency of transmission of male gametes with the alien segment than the other three lines. The restoring gene carried by the 6U segment in 2114 showed high expressivity and complete penetrance. This restoring gene is designated Rf6. A homoeologous chromosome recombination mechanism is discussed for the alien gene transfer.Paper No. 823 of the Cornell plant breeding series     

An inventory of continental U.S. terrestrial candidate ecological restoration areas based on landscape context

Landscape context is an important factor in restoration ecology, but the use of landscape context for site prioritization has not been as fully developed. We used morphological image processing to identify candidate ecological restoration areas based on their proximity to existing natural vegetation. We identified 1,102,720 candidate ecological restoration areas across the continental United States. Candidate ecological restoration areas were concentrated in the Great Plains and eastern United States. We populated the database of candidate ecological restoration areas with 17 attributes related to site content and context, including factors such as soil fertility and roads (site content), and number and area of potentially conjoined vegetated regions (site context) to facilitate its use for site prioritization. We demonstrate the utility of the database in the state of North Carolina, U.S.A. for a restoration objective related to restoration of water quality (mandated by the U.S. Clean Water Act), wetlands, and forest. The database will be made publicly available on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's EnviroAtlas website ( http://enviroatlas.epa.gov ) for stakeholders interested in ecological restoration.