Real-time case fatality analysis points to emerging evidence of increasing severity of pandemic (H1N1) 2009

Comment on: Fraser C, Donnelly CA, Cauchemez S, Hanage WP, Van Kerkhove MD, Hollingsworth TD, et al. WHO Rapid Pandemic Assessment Collaboration. Pandemic potential of a strain of influenza A (H1N1): early findings. Science 2009; 324:1557-61.     

Comparative analysis of hemagglutinin of 2009 H1N1 influenza A pandemic indicates its evolution to 1918 H1N1 pandemic

To gain insight into the possible origin of the hemagglutinin of 2009 outbreak, we performed its comparative analysis with hemagglutinin of influenza viral strains from 2005 to 2008 and the past pandemics of 1977, 1968, 1957 and 1918. This insilico analysis showed a maximum sequence similarity between 2009 and 1918 pandemics. Primary structure analysis, antigenic and glycosylation site analyses revealed that this protein has evolved from 1918 pandemic. Phylogenetic analysis of HA amino acid sequence of 2009 influenza A(H1N1) viruses indicated that this virus possesses a distinctive evolutionary trait with 1918 influenza A virus. Although the disordered sequences are different among all the isolates, the disordered positions and sequences between 2009 and 1918 isolates show a greater similarity. Thus these analyses contribute to the evidence of the evolution of 2009 pandemic from 1918 influenza pandemic. This is the first computational evolutionary analysis of HA protein of 2009 H1N1 pandemic.     

Pre-admission statin use and in-hospital severity of 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) disease

Background

Statins are drugs that are used to lower plasma cholesterol levels. Recently, contradictory claims have been made about possible additional effects of statins on progression of a variety of inflammatory disorders, including infections. We therefore examined the clinical course of patients admitted to hospital with 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1), who were or weren''t taking statins at time of admission.

Methods

A retrospective case-control study was performed using the United Kingdom Influenza Clinical Information Network (FLU-CIN) database, containing detailed information on 1,520 patients admitted to participating hospitals with confirmed 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) infection between April 2009 and January 2010. We confined our analysis to those aged over 34 years. Univariate analysis was used to calculate unadjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95 percent confidence intervals (95%CI) for factors affecting progression to severe outcome (high dependency or intensive care unit level support) or death (cases); two multivariable logistic regression models were then established for age and sex, and for age, sex, obesity and “indication for statin” (e.g., heart disease or hypercholesterolaemia).

Results

We found no statistically significant association between pre-admission statin use and severity of outcome after adjustment for age and sex [adjusted OR: 0.81 (95% CI: 0.46–1.38); n = 571]. After adjustment for age, sex, obesity and indication for statin, the association between pre-admission statin use and severe outcome was not statistically significant; point estimates are compatible with a small but clinically significant protective effect of statin use [adjusted OR: 0.72 (95% CI: 0.38–1.33)].

Conclusions

In this group of patients hospitalized with pandemic influenza, a significant beneficial effect of pre-admission statin use on the in-hospital course of illness was not identified. Although the database from which these observations are derived represents the largest available suitable UK hospital cohort, a larger study would be needed to confirm whether there is any benefit in this setting.     

Improved antigen yield in pandemic H1N1 (2009) candidate vaccine viruses with chimeric hemagglutinin molecules

The candidate pandemic H1N1 vaccine virus NIBRG-121 was derived by reverse genetics and comprises the hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) genes from A/California/7/2009 (CAL) on an A/Puerto Rico/8/34 (PR8) backbone. NIBRG-121 was found to grow poorly in eggs, compared to seasonal H1N1 candidate vaccine viruses. Based on our previous study with H5N1 candidate vaccine viruses, we generated two new viruses with chimeric PR8/CAL HA genes. Here we show that these new viruses have considerably improved growth in eggs and are therefore better candidate vaccine viruses for use in production of pandemic H1N1 (2009) vaccine.     

Screening of random peptide library of hemagglutinin from pandemic 2009 A(H1N1) influenza virus reveals unexpected antigenically important regions

The antigenic structure of the membrane protein hemagglutinin (HA) from the 2009 A(H1N1) influenza virus was dissected with a high-throughput screening method using complex antisera. The approach involves generating yeast cell libraries displaying a pool of random peptides of controllable lengths on the cell surface, followed by one round of fluorescence-activated cell sorting (FACS) against antisera from mouse, goat and human, respectively. The amino acid residue frequency appearing in the antigenic peptides at both the primary sequence and structural level was determined and used to identify "hot spots" or antigenically important regions. Unexpectedly, different antigenic structures were seen for different antisera. Moreover, five antigenic regions were identified, of which all but one are located in the conserved HA stem region that is responsible for membrane fusion. Our findings are corroborated by several recent studies on cross-neutralizing H1 subtype antibodies that recognize the HA stem region. The antigenic peptides identified may provide clues for creating peptide vaccines with better accessibility to memory B cells and better induction of cross-neutralizing antibodies than the whole HA protein. The scheme used in this study enables a direct mapping of the antigenic regions of viral proteins recognized by antisera, and may be useful for dissecting the antigenic structures of other viral proteins.     

Increased pathogenicity of a reassortant 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus containing an H5N1 hemagglutinin

A novel H1N1 influenza virus emerged in 2009 (pH1N1) to become the first influenza pandemic of the 21st century. This virus is now cocirculating with highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza viruses in many parts of the world, raising concerns that a reassortment event may lead to highly pathogenic influenza strains with the capacity to infect humans more readily and cause severe disease. To investigate the virulence of pH1N1-H5N1 reassortant viruses, we created pH1N1 (A/California/04/2009) viruses expressing individual genes from an avian H5N1 influenza strain (A/Hong Kong/483/1997). Using several in vitro models of virus replication, we observed increased replication for a reassortant CA/09 virus expressing the hemagglutinin (HA) gene of HK/483 (CA/09-483HA) relative to that of either parental CA/09 virus or reassortant CA/09 expressing other HK/483 genes. This increased replication correlated with enhanced pathogenicity in infected mice similar to that of the parental HK/483 strain. The serial passage of the CA/09 parental virus and the CA/09-483HA virus through primary human lung epithelial cells resulted in increased pathogenicity, suggesting that these viruses easily adapt to humans and become more virulent. In contrast, serial passage attenuated the parental HK/483 virus in vitro and resulted in slightly reduced morbidity in vivo, suggesting that sustained replication in humans attenuates H5N1 avian influenza viruses. Taken together, these data suggest that reassortment between cocirculating human pH1N1 and avian H5N1 influenza strains will result in a virus with the potential for increased pathogenicity in mammals.     

Modelling mitigation strategies for pandemic (H1N1) 2009

Background

The 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic has required decision-makers to act in the face of substantial uncertainties. Simulation models can be used to project the effectiveness of mitigation strategies, but the choice of the best scenario may change depending on model assumptions and uncertainties.

Methods

We developed a simulation model of a pandemic (H1N1) 2009 outbreak in a structured population using demographic data from a medium-sized city in Ontario and epidemiologic influenza pandemic data. We projected the attack rate under different combinations of vaccination, school closure and antiviral drug strategies (with corresponding “trigger” conditions). To assess the impact of epidemiologic and program uncertainty, we used “combinatorial uncertainty analysis.” This permitted us to identify the general features of public health response programs that resulted in the lowest attack rates.

Results

Delays in vaccination of 30 days or more reduced the effectiveness of vaccination in lowering the attack rate. However, pre-existing immunity in 15% or more of the population kept the attack rates low, even if the whole population was not vaccinated or vaccination was delayed. School closure was effective in reducing the attack rate, especially if applied early in the outbreak, but this is not necessary if vaccine is available early or if pre-existing immunity is strong.

Interpretation

Early action, especially rapid vaccine deployment, is disproportionately effective in reducing the attack rate. This finding is particularly important given the early appearance of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in many schools in September 2009.Jurisdictions in the northern hemisphere are bracing for a “fall wave” of pandemic (H1N1) 2009.^1–3 Decision-makers face uncertainty, not just with respect to epidemiologic characteristics of the virus,⁴ but also program uncertainties related to feasibility, timeliness and effectiveness of mitigation strategies.⁵ Policy decisions must be made against this backdrop of uncertainty. However, the effectiveness of any mitigation strategy generally depends on the epidemiologic characteristics of the pathogen as well as the other mitigation strategies adopted. Mathematical models can project strategy effectiveness under hypothetical epidemiologic and program scenarios.^6–12 In the case of pandemic influenza, models have been used to assess the effectiveness of school closure⁷ and optimal use of antiviral drug^6,9,10 and vaccination strategies.⁸ However, model projections can be sensitive to input parameter values; thus, data uncertainty is an issue.¹³ Uncertainty analysis can help address the impact of uncertainties on model predictions but is often underutilized.¹³In this article, we present a simulation model of pandemic influenza transmission and mitigation in a population. This model projects the overall attack rate (percentage of people infected) during an outbreak. We introduce a formal method of uncertainty analysis that has not previously been applied to pandemic influenza, and we use this method to assess the impact of epidemiologic and program uncertainties. The model is intended to address the following policy questions that have been raised during the 2009 influenza pandemic: What is the impact of delayed vaccine delivery on attack rates? Can attack rates be substantially reduced without closing schools? What is the impact of pre-existing immunity from spring and summer 2009? We addressed these questions using a simulation model that projects the impact of vaccination, school closure and antiviral drug treatment strategies on attack rates.     

Correlates of severe disease in patients with 2009 pandemic influenza (H1N1) virus infection

Background

In the context of 2009 pandemic influenza (H1N1) virus infection (pandemic H1N1 influenza), identifying correlates of the severity of disease is critical to guiding the implementation of antiviral strategies, prioritization of vaccination efforts and planning of health infrastructure. The objective of this study was to identify factors correlated with severity of disease in confirmed cases of pandemic H1N1 influenza.

Methods

This cumulative case–control study included all laboratory-confirmed cases of pandemic H1N1 influenza among residents of the province of Manitoba, Canada, for whom the final location of treatment was known. Severe cases were defined by admission to a provincial intensive care unit (ICU). Factors associated with severe disease necessitating admission to the ICU were determined by comparing ICU cases with two control groups: patients who were admitted to hospital but not to an ICU and those who remained in the community.

Results

As of Sept. 5, 2009, there had been 795 confirmed cases of pandemic H1N1 influenza in Manitoba for which the final treatment location could be determined. The mean age of individuals with laboratory-confirmed infection was 25.3 (standard deviation 18.8) years. More than half of the patients (417 or 52%) were female, and 215 (37%) of 588 confirmed infections for which ethnicity was known occurred in First Nations residents. The proportion of First Nations residents increased with increasing severity of disease (116 [28%] of 410 community cases, 74 [54%] of 136 admitted to hospital and 25 [60%] of 42 admitted to an ICU; p < 0.001), as did the presence of an underlying comorbidity (201 [35%] of 569 community cases, 103 [57%] of 181 admitted to hospital and 34 [76%] of 45 admitted to an ICU; p < 0.001). The median interval from onset of symptoms to initiation of antiviral therapy was 2 days (interquartile range, IQR 1–3) for community cases, 4 days (IQR 2–6) for patients admitted to hospital and 6 days (IQR 4–9) for those admitted to an ICU (p < 0.001). In a multivariable logistic model, the interval from onset of symptoms to initiation of antiviral therapy (odds ratio [OR] 8.24, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.82–24.1), First Nations ethnicity (OR 6.52, 95% CI 2.04–20.8) and presence of an underlying comorbidity (OR 3.19, 95% CI 1.07–9.52) were associated with increased odds of admission to the ICU (i.e., severe disease) relative to community cases. In an analysis of ICU cases compared with patients admitted to hospital, First Nations ethnicity (OR 3.23, 95% CI 1.04–10.1) was associated with increased severity of disease.

Interpretation

Severe pandemic H1N1 influenza necessitating admission to the ICU was associated with a longer interval from onset of symptoms to treatment with antiviral therapy and with the presence of an underlying comorbidity. First Nations ethnicity appeared to be an independent determinant of severe infection. Despite these associations, the cause and outcomes of pandemic HINI influenza may involve many complex and interrelated factors, all of which require further research and analysis.In April 2009, Canada’s first wave of pandemic influenza (H1N1) virus infections (pandemic H1N1 influenza) began. The highest burden of severe illness in Canada occurred in the province of Manitoba, where 45 Manitobans and 9 out-of-province patients were admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU). In this first wave, ICU staff and equipment were mobilized to expand bed capacity and ventilator capabilities to accommodate clinical need.Although many individuals presented with mild, self-limited symptoms and no sign of pulmonary involvement, some people required admission to an ICU and received maximal life support measures.^1–3 Predicting disease and mitigating hazard in at-risk populations is an important aim of public heath epidemiology, and in preparation for future waves of pandemic H1N1 influenza, determining correlates of the severity of disease may be very important. Initial reports have suggested that, in addition to many of the previously known risk factors for complications of seasonal influenza, obesity⁴ and other underlying comorbidities^3,5 may be risk factors for severe disease. The interval from onset of symptoms to initiation of antiviral therapy or other treatment and supportive care was also associated with adverse outcome in a recent case series.⁶ In a Canadian study of severe pandemic H1N1 influenza, First Nations people were proportionally overrepresented among patients in the ICU.² However, it is unclear if this association was independent of potential confounding factors. The ability to determine correlates of severe pandemic H1N1 disease and subsequent need for ICU resources in at-risk populations would provide opportunities for public and population health analysis and action, public education, strategic prioritization of vaccination efforts, efficient and equitable allocation and use of antiviral drugs, and development of infrastructure within the health system.The objectives of this study were to identify factors that were correlated with severity of disease in confirmed cases of pandemic H1N1 influenza. Our hypothesis, which was based on existing literature, was that obesity, First Nations ethnicity and longer interval from onset of symptoms to treatment would be important determinants of the severity of disease.     

Seroprevalence and severity of 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 in Taiwan

Background

This study is to determine the seroprevalence of the pandemic influenza A H1N1 virus (pH1N1) in Taiwan before and after the 2009 pandemic, and to estimate the relative severity of pH1N1 infections among different age groups.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A total of 1544 and 1558 random serum samples were collected from the general population in Taiwan in 2007 and 2010, respectively. Seropositivity was defined by a hemagglutination inhibition titer to pH1N1 (A/Taiwan/126/09) ≥1:40. The seropositivity rate of pH1N1 among the unvaccinated subjects and national surveillance data were used to compare the proportion of infections that led to severe diseases and fatalities among different age groups. The overall seroprevalence of pH1N1 was 0.91% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.43–1.38) in 2007 and significantly increased to 29.9% (95% CI 27.6–32.2) in 2010 (p<0.0001), with the peak attack rate (55.4%) in 10–17 year-old adolescents, the lowest in elderly ≥65 years (14.1%). The overall attack rates were 20.6% (188/912) in unvaccinated subjects. Among the unvaccinated but infected populations, the estimated attack rates of severe cases per 100,000 infections were significantly higher in children aged 0–5 years (54.9 cases, odds ratio [OR] 4.23, 95% CI 3.04–5.90) and elderly ≥ 65years (22.4 cases, OR 2.76, 95% CI 1.99–3.83) compared to adolescents aged 10–17 years (13.0 cases). The overall case-fatality rate was 0.98 per 100,000 infections without a significant difference in different age groups.

Conclusions/Significance

Pre-existing immunity against pH1N1 was rarely identified in Taiwanese at any age in 2007. Young children and elderly – the two most lower seroprotection groups showed the greatest vulnerability to clinical severity after the pH1N1 infections. These results imply that both age groups should have higher priority for immunization in the coming flu season.     

Structural characterization of the hemagglutinin receptor specificity from the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic

Influenza virus hemagglutinin (HA) is the viral envelope protein that mediates viral attachment to host cells and elicits membrane fusion. The HA receptor-binding specificity is a key determinant for the host range and transmissibility of influenza viruses. In human pandemics of the 20th century, the HA normally has acquired specificity for human-like receptors before widespread infection. Crystal structures of the H1 HA from the 2009 human pandemic (A/California/04/2009 [CA04]) in complex with human and avian receptor analogs reveal conserved recognition of the terminal sialic acid of the glycan ligands. However, favorable interactions beyond the sialic acid are found only for α2-6-linked glycans and are mediated by Asp190 and Asp225, which hydrogen bond with Gal-2 and GlcNAc-3. For α2-3-linked glycan receptors, no specific interactions beyond the terminal sialic acid are observed. Our structural and glycan microarray analyses, in the context of other high-resolution HA structures with α2-6- and α2-3-linked glycans, now elucidate the structural basis of receptor-binding specificity for H1 HAs in human and avian viruses and provide a structural explanation for the preference for α2-6 siaylated glycan receptors for the 2009 pandemic swine flu virus.     

Phylogenetic analysis of surface proteins of novel H1N1 virus isolated from 2009 pandemic

Swine Influenza Virus (H1N1) is a known causative agent of swine flu. Transmission of Swine Influenza Virus form pig to human is not a common event and may not always cause human influenza. The 2009 outbreak by subtype H1N1 in humans is due to transfer of Swine Influenza Virus from pig to human. Thus to analyze the origin of this novel virus we compared two surface proteins (HA and NA) with influenza viruses of swine, avian and humans isolates recovered from 1918 to 2008 outbreaks. Phylogenetic analyses of hemagglutinin gene from 2009 pandemic found to be clustered with swine influenza virus (H1N2) circulated in U.S.A during the 1999-2004 outbreaks. Whereas, neuraminidase gene was clustered with H1N1 strains isolated from Europe and Asia during 1992-2007 outbreaks. This study concludes that the new H1N1 strain appeared in 2009 outbreak with high pathogenicity to human was originated as result of re-assortment (exchange of gene). Moreover, our data also suggest that the virus will remain sensitive to the pre-existing therapeutic strategies.     

Sublingual administration of bacteria-expressed influenza virus hemagglutinin 1 (HA1) induces protection against infection with 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus

Influenza viruses are respiratory pathogens that continue to pose a significantly high risk of morbidity and mortality of humans worldwide. Vaccination is one of the most effective strategies for minimizing damages by influenza outbreaks. In addition, rapid development and production of efficient vaccine with convenient administration is required in case of influenza pandemic. In this study, we generated recombinant influenza virus hemagglutinin protein 1 (sHA1) of 2009 pandemic influenza virus as a vaccine candidate using a well-established bacterial expression system and administered it into mice via sublingual (s.l.) route. We found that s.l. immunization with the recombinant sHA1 plus cholera toxin (CT) induced mucosal antibodies as well as systemic antibodies including neutralizing Abs and provided complete protection against infection with pandemic influenza virus A/CA/04/09 (H1N1) in mice. Indeed, the protection efficacy was comparable with that induced by intramuscular (i.m.) immunization route utilized as general administration route of influenza vaccine. These results suggest that s.l. vaccination with the recombinant non-glycosylated HA1 protein offers an alternative strategy to control influenza outbreaks including pandemics.     

Influenza A (H1N1) 2009: a pandemic alarm

At this critical juncture when the world has not yet recovered from the threat of avian influenza, the virus has returned in the disguise of swine influenza, a lesser known illness common in pigs. It has reached pandemic proportions in a short time span with health personnel still devising ways to identify the novel H1N1 virus and develop vaccines against it. The H1N1 virus has caused a considerable number of deaths within the short duration since its emergence. Presently, there are no effective methods to contain this newly emerged virus. Therefore, a proper and clear insight is urgently required to prevent an outbreak in the future and make preparations that may be planned well in advance. This review is an attempt to discuss the historical perspective of the swine flu virus, its epidemiology and route of transmission to better understand the various control measures that may be taken to fight the danger of a global pandemic.     

An analysis of 332 fatalities infected with pandemic 2009 influenza A (H1N1) in Argentina

Background

The apparent high number of deaths in Argentina during the 2009 pandemic led to concern that the influenza A H1N1pdm disease was different there. We report the characteristics and risk factors for influenza A H1N1pdm fatalities.

Methods

We identified laboratory-confirmed influenza A H1N1pdm fatalities occurring during June-July 2009. Physicians abstracted data on age, sex, time of onset of illness, medical history, clinical presentation at admission, laboratory, treatment, and outcomes using standardize questionnaires. We explored the characteristics of fatalities according to their age and risk group.

Results

Of 332 influenza A H1N1pdm fatalities, 226 (68%) were among persons aged <50 years. Acute respiratory failure was the leading cause of death. Of all cases, 249 (75%) had at least one comorbidity as defined by Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices. Obesity was reported in 32% with data and chronic pulmonary disease in 28%. Among the 40 deaths in children aged <5 years, chronic pulmonary disease (42%) and neonatal pathologies (35%) were the most common co-morbidities. Twenty (6%) fatalities were among pregnant or postpartum women of which only 47% had diagnosed co-morbidities. Only 13% of patients received antiviral treatment within 48 hours of symptom onset. None of children aged <5 years or the pregnant women received antivirals within 48 h of symptom onset. As the pandemic progressed, the time from symptom-onset to medical care and to antiviral treatment decreased significantly among case-patients who subsequently died (p<0.001).

Conclusion

Persons with co-morbidities, pregnant and who received antivirals late were over-represented among influenza A H1N1pdm deaths in Argentina, though timeliness of antiviral treatment improved during the pandemic.     

Prevalence of seroprotection against the pandemic (H1N1) virus after the 2009 pandemic

Background

Before pandemic (H1N1) 2009, less than 10% of serum samples collected from all age groups in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia, Canada, showed seroprotection against the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus, except those from very elderly people. We reassessed this profile of seroprotection by age in the same region six months after the fall 2009 pandemic and vaccination campaign.

Methods

We evaluated 100 anonymized serum samples per 10-year age group based on convenience sampling. We measured levels of antibody against the pandemic virus by hemagglutination inhibition and microneutralization assays. We assessed geometric mean titres and the proportion of people with seroprotective antibody levels (hemagglutination inhibition titre ≥ 40). We performed sensitivity analyses to evaluate titre thresholds of 80, 20 and 10.

Results

Serum samples from 1127 people aged 9 months to 101 years were obtained. The overall age-standardized proportion of people with seroprotective antibody levels was 46%. A U-shaped age distribution was identified regardless of assay or titre threshold applied. Among those less than 20 years old and those 80 years and older, the prevalence of seroprotection was comparably high at about 70%. Seroprotection was 44% among those aged 20–49 and 30% among those 50–79 years. It was lowest among people aged 70–79 years (21%) and highest among those 90 years and older (88%).

Interpretation

We measured much higher levels of seroprotection after the 2009 pandemic compared than before the pandemic, with a U-shaped age distribution now evident. These findings, particularly the low levels of seroprotection among people aged 50–79 years, should be confirmed in other settings and closer to the influenza season.In a previous age-based survey of about 1000 anonymized serum samples collected before substantial pandemic (H1N1) 2009 activity in the Lower Mainland of the province of British Columbia, Canada, we found that less than 10% of children and adults under 70 years of age had seroprotective levels of antibody against the pandemic (H1N1) virus.¹ This proportion was slightly higher among people aged 70–79 years (27%) and substantially higher among those above 80 years of age (77%).¹The 2009 influenza pandemic and the broad and effective vaccination campaign introduced major changes to this population’s immune status. The first wave in the province, in the spring and summer months, was of limited activity and was followed by a second, more substantial and widespread wave in the fall that peaked during the last week of October and resolved by the end of 2009.² Meanwhile, a highly immunogenic adjuvanted vaccine was provided free of charge through a universal vaccination campaign that targeted all Canadians.³ Supply was limited initially, requiring sequenced rollout of the vaccine, starting with children under five years of age, pregnant women, and people under 65 years who had comorbidities.⁴ The uptake of the vaccine of about 35%–45% in the province overall^4–6 and 44% in the Lower Mainland (Dr. Monika Naus, BC Centre for Disease Control, Vancouver, BC: personal communication, 2010) was estimated to be moderate compared with rates of uptake in other provinces.To assess seroprotective antibody levels after the 2009 pandemic, we repeated our age-based survey of antibody levels against the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus in a further 1000 serum samples collected from people in the Lower Mainland in May and June 2010, more than six months after the last peak of the epidemic.     

Oseltamivir-resistant pandemic (H1N1)2009 in Yemen - case report

To investigate West Nile virus (WNV) circulation in rural populations in Gabon, we undertook a large serological survey focusing on human rural populations, using two different ELISA assays. A sample was considered positive when it reacted in both tests. A total of 2320 villagers from 115 villages were interviewed and sampled. Surprisingly, the WNV-specific IgG prevalence was high overall (27.2%) and varied according to the ecosystem: 23.7% in forested regions, 21.8% in savanna, and 64.9% in the lakes region. The WNV-specific IgG prevalence rate was 30% in males and 24.6% in females, and increased with age. Although serological cross-reactions between flaviviruses are likely and may be frequent, these findings strongly suggest that WNV is widespread in Gabon. The difference in WNV prevalence among ecosystems suggests preferential circulation in the lakes region. The linear increase with age suggests continuous exposure of Gabonese populations to WNV. Further investigations are needed to determine the WNV cycle and transmission patterns in Gabon.     

The seroprevalence of pandemic influenza H1N1 (2009) virus in China

Background

Mainland China experienced pandemic influenza H1N1 (2009) virus (pH1N1) with peak activity during November-December 2009. To understand the geographic extent, risk factors, and attack rate of pH1N1 infection in China we conducted a nationwide serological survey to determine the prevalence of antibodies to pH1N1.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Stored serum samples (n = 2,379) collected during 2006-2008 were used to estimate baseline serum reactogenicity to pH1N1. In January 2010, we used a multistage-stratified random sampling method to select 50,111 subjects who met eligibility criteria and collected serum samples and administered a standardized questionnaire. Antibody response to pH1N1 was measured using haemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay and the weighted seroprevalence was calculated using the Taylor series linearization method. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to examine risk factors for pH1N1 seropositivity. Baseline seroprevalence of pH1N1 antibody (HI titer ≥40) was 1.2%. The weighted seroprevalence of pH1N1 among the Chinese population was 21.5%(vaccinated: 62.0%; unvaccinated: 17.1%). Among unvaccinated participants, those aged 6-15 years (32.9%) and 16-24 years (30.3%) had higher seroprevalence compared with participants aged 25–59 years (10.7%) and ≥60 years (9.9%, P<0.0001). Children in kindergarten and students had higher odds of seropositivity than children in family care (OR: 1.36 and 2.05, respectively). We estimated that 207.7 million individuals (15.9%) experienced pH1N1 infection in China.

Conclusions/Significance

The Chinese population had low pre-existing immunity to pH1N1 and experienced a relatively high attack rate in 2009 of this virus. We recommend routine control measures such as vaccination to reduce transmission and spread of seasonal and pandemic influenza viruses.     

Frequency of D222G and Q223R hemagglutinin mutants of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza virus in Japan between 2009 and 2010

Background

In April 2009, a novel swine-derived influenza A virus (H1N1pdm) emerged and rapidly spread around the world, including Japan. It has been suggested that the virus can bind to both 2,3- and 2,6-linked sialic acid receptors in infected mammals, in contrast to contemporary seasonal H1N1 viruses, which have a predilection for 2,6-linked sialic acid.

Methods/Results

To elucidate the existence and transmissibility of α2,3 sialic acid-specific viruses in H1N1pdm, amino acid substitutions within viral hemagglutinin molecules were investigated, especially D187E, D222G, and Q223R, which are related to a shift from human to avian receptor specificity. Samples from individuals infected during the first and second waves of the outbreak in Japan were examined using a high-throughput sequencing approach. In May 2009, three specimens from mild cases showed D222G and/or Q223R substitutions in a minor subpopulation of viruses infecting these individuals. However, the substitutions almost disappeared in the samples from five mild cases in December 2010. The D187E substitution was not widespread in specimens, even in May 2009.

Conclusions

These results suggest that α2,3 sialic acid-specific viruses, including G222 and R223, existed in humans as a minor population in the early phase of the pandemic, and that D222 and Q223 became more dominant through human-to-human transmission during the first and second waves of the epidemic. These results are consistent with the low substitution rates identified in seasonal H1N1 viruses in 2008.     

Severe pandemic 2009 H1N1 influenza disease due to pathogenic immune complexes

Pandemic influenza viruses often cause severe disease in middle-aged adults without preexisting comorbidities. The mechanism of illness associated with severe disease in this age group is not well understood. Here we find preexisting serum antibodies that cross-react with, but do not protect against, 2009 H1N1 influenza virus in middle-aged adults. Nonprotective antibody is associated with immune complex-mediated disease after infection. We detected high titers of serum antibody of low avidity for H1-2009 antigen, and low-avidity pulmonary immune complexes against the same protein, in severely ill individuals. Moreover, C4d deposition--a marker of complement activation mediated by immune complexes--was present in lung sections of fatal cases. Archived lung sections from middle-aged adults with confirmed fatal influenza 1957 H2N2 infection revealed a similar mechanism of illness. These observations provide a previously unknown biological mechanism for the unusual age distribution of severe cases during influenza pandemics.