气候变化影响与风险研究的理论范式和方法体系

以全球变暖为主的气候变化将会在本世纪持续,针对气候变化影响与风险而采取适应和减缓措施,得到了国际社会的广泛认同。然而,气候变化影响与风险研究领域理论和方法并不规范,研究结果缺乏可比性。基于科学哲学家库恩提出的理论范式和构造范式概念,梳理、集成气候变化影响与风险研究的\"脆弱性-要素分离-不确定性-风险\"理论框架,总结相应的方法体系包括实地观测与科学实验、数值模型和统计方法、风险定量化评估框架等。气候变化影响与风险研究应遵循理论范式\"四要素\"的逻辑关系,综合运用多种分析方法,力求相关研究的整体性和系统化,以利增强气候变化影响与风险研究的科学性及其成果的应用指导意义。     

Are all risk perceptions created equal? Comparing general risk assessments and specific risk assessments associated with climate change

For policy-making to address public risk perceptions effectively, policy-makers must have a clear understanding of the nature of public risks. Public opinion polls regularly solicit perceptions of risk toward a variety of topics. These assessments, though, tend to be general with no specificity offered for a nuanced interpretation. Yet, there is good reason to assume that risk perceptions are not based on the same criteria. If true, policy-makers may be unable to address risks adequately without a better understanding of the drivers of risk perceptions. This project focuses on two primary research questions: (1) Does the public weigh the risk associated with global climate change differently in specific sub-domains? (2) If so, which climate change sub-domains are various members of the public most concerned about when offering a general assessment of global climate change risk? We assess public risk perceptions of climate change in three sub-domains—public health, economic development, and environment—and find that two of the three sub-domains are predictors of a general assessment of risk.     

Geroscience and climate science: Oppositional or complementary?

Two of this century's most significant public health challenges are climate change and healthy aging. The future of humanity will be both warmer and older than it is today. Is it socially responsible, in a warming planet of a population exceeding 8 billion people, for science to aspire to develop gerotherapeutic drugs that aim to reduce the burden of aging-related diseases that may also increase lifespan? This question is the “elephant in the room” for geroscience advocacy. Science communication concerning what constitutes empirically valid and morally defensible ways of navigating the dual public health predicaments of climate change and healthy aging must be sensitive to both the interdependence of the environment (including planetary health) and the mechanisms of aging, as well as the common (mis)perceptions about the potential conflict between the goals of climate science and geroscience. Geroscience advocacy can transcend narratives of intergenerational conflict by highlighting the shared aspirations of climate science and geroscience, such as the goals of promoting health across the lifespan, redressing health disparities, and improving the economic prospects of current and future generations.     

人类活动-气候变化影响下植被生态系统稳态转换研究进展

人类活动和气候变化对植被内部组分的相互作用和反馈机制产生显著而持续的影响,导致植被生态系统状态发生变化。目前围绕植被生态系统多稳态及稳态转换已经形成一系列理论和实证层面的成果。以人类活动和气候变化为特定干扰域,对植被生态系统稳态转换的理论基础演变进行综述,并从机理层面解析植被结构-功能-状态响应过程;系统梳理植被稳态转换的阈值效应,识别出可能指示生态阈值的驱动力-响应关系;最后,从临界域视角整合植被生态系统稳态转换的信号特征,包括临界慢化、空间关系异常和斑块规律性构型等。在对目前研究不足和未来研究重点进行归纳分析的基础上,主张基于阈值的植被生态系统管理路径,但需要建立在认知植被临界响应机制和非线性自组织规律的前提之上。     

Thermal adaptation and ecological speciation

Ecological speciation is defined as the emergence of reproductive isolation as a direct or indirect consequence of divergent ecological adaptation. Several empirical examples of ecological speciation have been reported in the literature which very often involve adaptation to biotic resources. In this review, we investigate whether adaptation to different thermal habitats could also promote speciation and try to assess the importance of such processes in nature. Our survey of the literature identified 16 animal and plant systems where divergent thermal adaptation may underlie (partial) reproductive isolation between populations or may allow the stable coexistence of sibling taxa. In many of the systems, the differentially adapted populations have a parapatric distribution along an environmental gradient. Isolation often involves extrinsic selection against locally maladapted parental or hybrid genotypes, and additional pre- or postzygotic barriers may be important. Together, the identified examples strongly suggest that divergent selection between thermal environments is often strong enough to maintain a bimodal genotype distribution upon secondary contact. What is less clear from the available data is whether it can also be strong enough to allow ecological speciation in the face of gene flow through reinforcement-like processes. It is possible that intrinsic features of thermal gradients or the genetic basis of thermal adaptation make such reinforcement-like processes unlikely but it is equally possible that pertinent systems are understudied. Overall, our literature survey highlights (once again) the dearth of studies that investigate similar incipient species along the continuum from initial divergence to full reproductive isolation and studies that investigate all possible reproductive barriers in a given system.     

Non-climatic thermal adaptation: implications for species' responses to climate warming

There is considerable interest in understanding how ectothermic animals may physiologically and behaviourally buffer the effects of climate warming. Much less consideration is being given to how organisms might adapt to non-climatic heat sources in ways that could confound predictions for responses of species and communities to climate warming. Although adaptation to non-climatic heat sources (solar and geothermal) seems likely in some marine species, climate warming predictions for marine ectotherms are largely based on adaptation to climatically relevant heat sources (air or surface sea water temperature). Here, we show that non-climatic solar heating underlies thermal resistance adaptation in a rocky–eulittoral-fringe snail. Comparisons of the maximum temperatures of the air, the snail''s body and the rock substratum with solar irradiance and physiological performance show that the highest body temperature is primarily controlled by solar heating and re-radiation, and that the snail''s upper lethal temperature exceeds the highest climatically relevant regional air temperature by approximately 22°C. Non-climatic thermal adaptation probably features widely among marine and terrestrial ectotherms and because it could enable species to tolerate climatic rises in air temperature, it deserves more consideration in general and for inclusion into climate warming models.     

Economic development,climate and values: making policy

The two defining challenges of this century are overcoming poverty and managing the risks of climate change. Over the past 10 years, we have learned much about how to tackle them together from ideas on economic development and public policy. My own work in these areas over four decades as an academic and as a policy adviser in universities and international financial institutions has focused on how the investment environment and the empowerment of people can change lives and livelihoods. The application of insights from economic development and public policy to climate change requires rigorous analysis of issues such as discounting, modelling the risks of unmanaged climate change, climate policy targets and estimates of the costs of mitigation. The latest research and results show that the case for avoiding the risks of dangerous climate change through the transition to low-carbon economic development and growth is still stronger than when the Stern Review was published. This is partly because of evidence that some of the impacts of climate change are happening more quickly than originally expected, and because of remarkable advances in technologies, such as solar power. Nevertheless, significant hurdles remain in securing the international cooperation required to avoid dangerous climate change, not least because of disagreements and misunderstandings about key issues, such as ethics and equity.     

生物多样性适应气候变化的国家政策和措施: 国际经验及启示

气候变化已成为威胁生物多样性及生态系统服务功能的主要因素之一, 许多国家已经意识到必须提高本国生物多样性适应气候变化的能力。一些国家出台了国家战略, 采取增加连通性、改进现有保护区域的管理和恢复措施等基于生态系统的适应措施, 采用跨学科与跨部门协作手段加强生物多样性适应气候变化的监测和评估, 并且从制度和资金等方面加强政策措施的落实。作者对部分发达国家和发展中的生物多样性大国的生物多样性适应气候变化的相关政策和措施进行了梳理, 并结合我国现状提出以下建议: (1)把生物多样性适应气候变化作为国家整体适应战略中的优先措施之一; (2)将提高生物多样性和生态系统的恢复力作为适应气候变化的基础性原则; (3)整合并完善国家生物多样性监测网络, 参考国际通行标准制定信息和数据收集标准, 并且尽快对气候变化下我国生物多样性脆弱性开展全面且持续的评估。     

Long-term biomonitoring of lichen and bryophyte biodiversity at Burnham Beeches SAC and global environmental change

Long-term monitoring began 20 years ago at Burnham Beeches Site of Special Interest (SSSI), National Nature Reserve (NNR) and European Special Area of Conservation (SAC) lying 40 km west of London as a consequence of the authorization of an application to extract gravel from an adjacent site lying north of Slough Trading Estate. Dust monitoring (sticky pads) and photographic monitoring, recording and image analysis was instigated in 1992 on Parmelion communities to assess changes in lichen growth, health and community composition. Long-term monitoring identifies that the lichen flora on free-standing trees has undergone rapid expansion from a near dominance by the SO₂-tolerant ‘acidophyte’ species Lecanora conizaeoides and Hypogymnia physodes following reductions in SO₂ concentrations. Long-term influences of low levels of eutrophication, gaseous pollutants (particularly globally rising background ozone concentrations) on lichen and bryophyte communities and succession under changing climatic conditions are unknown. Soil–plant relationships, lichen–invertebrate interactions and a pollution legacy must also be considered.