Climate change and plant dispersal along corridors in fragmented landscapes of Mesoamerica

Climate change is a threat to biodiversity, and adaptation measures should be considered in biodiversity conservation planning. Protected areas (PA) are expected to be impacted by climate change and improving their connectivity with biological corridors (BC) has been proposed as a potential adaptation measure, although assessing its effectiveness remains a challenge. In Mesoamerica, efforts to preserve the biodiversity have led to the creation of a regional network of PA and, more recently, BC. This study evaluates the role of BC for facilitating plant dispersal between PA under climate change in Mesoamerica. A spatially explicit dynamic model (cellular automaton) was developed to simulate species dispersal under different climate and conservation policy scenarios. Plant functional types (PFT) were defined based on a range of dispersal rates and vegetation types to represent the diversity of species in the region. The impacts of climate change on PA and the role of BC for dispersal were assessed spatially. Results show that most impacted PA are those with low altitudinal range in hot, dry, or high latitude areas. PA with low altitudinal range in high cool areas benefit the most from corridors. The most important corridors cover larger areas and have high altitude gradients. Only the fastest PFT can keep up with the expected change in climate and benefit from corridors for dispersal. We conclude that the spatial assessment of the vulnerability of PA and the role of corridors in facilitating dispersal can help conservation planning under a changing climate.     

Incorporating zoning and socioeconomic costs in planning for bird conservation

New systematic conservation approaches have high potential in evaluation of different conservation scenarios and can be used as decision support tools for managers and planners with multiple goals. The present study focused on two major issues in conservation planning including socioeconomic costs and zoning procedure. The goal was to prioritize and identify representative areas for bird conservation, while minimizing the economic cost for the silvicultural sector and resolve conflicts with recreational activities. The study was conducted in forest areas of Golestan Province as part of Hyrcanian mixed forests, located along the southern coasts of the Caspian Sea and northern slopes of the Alborz Mountains, northern Iran. We used systematic conservation software Marxan with Zones to select candidate areas for conservation. Two types of conservation networks were defined, one with high and partial protection zones and the other with high protection zones only. We focused on four conservation scenarios varying in targets, costs, and multiple zones. The results showed that incorporation of socioeconomic costs significantly decreases the potential impacts on the silvicultural and recreational sectors without significant change in the area of protection zones. Furthermore, we found that design of multiple zone conservation areas facilitates evaluation of a wider range of conservation scenarios that can reduce potential socioeconomic impacts on other interests.     

A quantitative analysis on the effects of critical factors limiting the effectiveness of species conservation in future time

The effectiveness of conservation plans depends on environmental, ecological, and socioeconomic factors. Global change makes conservation decisions even more challenging. Among others, the components of most concern in modern‐day conservation assessments are as follows: the magnitude of climate and land‐use changes; species dispersal abilities; competition with harmful socioeconomic activities for land use; the number of threatened species to consider; and, relatedly, the available budget to act. Here, we provide a unified framework that quantifies the relative effects of those factors on conservation. We conducted an area‐scheduling work plan in order to identify sets of areas along time in which the persistence expectancies of species are optimized. The approach was illustrated using data of potential distribution of ten nonvolant mammal species in Iberia Peninsula from current time up to 2080. Analyses were conducted considering possible setups among the factors that are likely to critically impact conservation success: three climate/land‐use scenarios; four species’ dispersal kernel curves; six land‐use layer types; and two planning designs, in which assessments were made independently for each species, or joining all species in a single plan. We identified areas for an array of investments levels capable to circumvent the spatial conflicts with socioeconomic activities. The effect of each factor on the estimated species persistence scores was assessed using linear mixed models. Our results evidence that conservation success is highly reliant on the resources available to abate land‐use conflicts. Nonetheless, under the same investment levels, planning design and climate change were the factors that most shaped species persistence scores. The persistence of five species was especially affected by the sole effect of planning design and consequently, larger conservation investments may retard climatic debts. For three species, the negative effects of a changing climate and of multiple‐species planning designs added up, making these species especially at risk. Integrated assessments of the factors most likely to limit species persistence are pivotal to achieve effectiveness.     

Socioeconomic development shows positive links to the conservation efficiency of China's protected area network

While the protected area (PA) covers >15% of the planet's terrestrial land area and continues to expand, factors determining its effectiveness in conserving endangered species are being debated. We investigated the links between direct anthropogenic pressures, socioeconomic settings, and the coverage of vertebrate taxa by China's PA network, and indicated that high socioeconomic status and low levels of human pressure correlate with high species coverage, with threatened mammals more effectively conserved than reptiles or amphibians. Positive links between conservation outcomes and socioeconomic progress appear linked to local livelihood improvements triggering positive perceptions of local PAs—aided further by ecological compensation and tourism schemes introduced in wealthy areas and reinforced by continued positive conservation outcomes. Socioeconomic development of China's less developed regions might assist regional PA efficiency and achievement of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, while also addressing potential shortcomings from an insufficient past focus on socioeconomic impacts for biodiversity conservation.     

Land Use Compounds Habitat Losses under Projected Climate Change in a Threatened California Ecosystem

Given the rapidly growing human population in mediterranean-climate systems, land use may pose a more immediate threat to biodiversity than climate change this century, yet few studies address the relative future impacts of both drivers. We assess spatial and temporal patterns of projected 21^st century land use and climate change on California sage scrub (CSS), a plant association of considerable diversity and threatened status in the mediterranean-climate California Floristic Province. Using a species distribution modeling approach combined with spatially-explicit land use projections, we model habitat loss for 20 dominant shrub species under unlimited and no dispersal scenarios at two time intervals (early and late century) in two ecoregions in California (Central Coast and South Coast). Overall, projected climate change impacts were highly variable across CSS species and heavily dependent on dispersal assumptions. Projected anthropogenic land use drove greater relative habitat losses compared to projected climate change in many species. This pattern was only significant under assumptions of unlimited dispersal, however, where considerable climate-driven habitat gains offset some concurrent climate-driven habitat losses. Additionally, some of the habitat gained with projected climate change overlapped with projected land use. Most species showed potential northern habitat expansion and southern habitat contraction due to projected climate change, resulting in sharply contrasting patterns of impact between Central and South Coast Ecoregions. In the Central Coast, dispersal could play an important role moderating losses from both climate change and land use. In contrast, high geographic overlap in habitat losses driven by projected climate change and projected land use in the South Coast underscores the potential for compounding negative impacts of both drivers. Limiting habitat conversion may be a broadly beneficial strategy under climate change. We emphasize the importance of addressing both drivers in conservation and resource management planning.     

The impact of climate change on the future distribution of priority crop wild relatives in Indonesia and implications for conservation planning

The analysis of climate change impact is essential to include in conservation planning of crop wild relatives (CWR) to provide the guideline for adequate long-term protection under unpredictable future environmental conditions. These resources play an important role in sustaining the future of food security, but the evidence shows that they are threatened by climate change. The current analyses show that five taxa were predicted to have contraction of more than 30 % of their current ranges: Artocarpus sepicanus (based on RCP 4.5 in both no dispersal and unlimited dispersal scenario and RCP 8.5 in no dispersal scenario by 2050), Ficus oleifolia (RCP 4.5 5 in both no dispersal and unlimited dispersal scenario by 2080), Cocos nucifera and Dioscorea alata (RCP 8.5 in both no dispersal and unlimited dispersal scenario by 2050), and Ficus chartacea (RCP 8.5 in both no dispersal and unlimited dispersal scenario by 2050 and 2080). It shows that the climate change impact is species-specific. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and dispersal scenarios influence the prediction models, and the actual future distribution range of species falls in between those scenarios. Climate refugia, holdout populations, and non-analogue community assemblages were identified based on the Protected Areas (PAs) network. PAs capacity is considered an important element in implementing a conservation strategy for the priority CWR. In areas where PAs are isolated and have less possibility to build corridors to connect each other, such as in Java, unlimited dispersal scenarios are unlikely to be achieved and assisted dispersal is suggested. The holdout populations should be the priority target for the ex situ collection. Therefore, by considering the climate refugia, PAs capacity and holdout populations, the goal of keeping high genetic variations for the long-term conservation of CWR in Indonesia can be achieved.     

Not a cakewalk: Insights into movement of large carnivores in human‐dominated landscapes in India

Large carnivores play an important role in the functioning of ecosystems, yet their conservation remains a massive challenge across the world. Owing to wide‐ranging habits, they encounter various anthropogenic pressures, affecting their movement in different landscape. Therefore, studying how large carnivores adapt their movement to dynamic landscape conditions is vital for management and conservation policy.A total of 26 individuals across 4 species of large carnivores of different sex and age classes (14 Panthera tigris, 3 Panthera pardus, 5 Cuon alpinus, and 4 Canis lupus pallipes) were GPS collared and monitored from 2014–19. We quantified movement parameters (step length and net squared displacement) of four large carnivores in and outside protected areas in India. We tested the effects of human pressures such as human density, road network, and landuse types on the movement of the species. We also examined the configuration of core areas as a strategy to subsist in a human‐dominated landscape using BBMM.Mean displacement of large carnivores varied from 99.35 m/hr for leopards to 637.7 m/hr for wolves. Tigers outside PAs exhibited higher displacement than tigers inside PAs. Moreover, displacement during day–night was significantly different for tigers inside and outside PAs. Similarly, wolf also showed significant difference between day‐night movement. However, no difference in day–night movement was found for leopard and dholes. Anthropogenic factors such as road length and proportion of agriculture within the home range of tigers outside PAs were found to be significantly different. All the habitat variables in the home range showed significant difference between the social canids. The core area size for tiger outside PA and wolf was found greater than PAs.The study on movement of large carnivore species across landscapes is crucial for conservation planning. Our findings can be a starting point for interlinking animal movement and landscape management of large carnivore conservation in the current Anthropocene.     

Winners and losers in the predicted impact of climate change on cacti species in Baja California

The Cactaceae is considered one of the most threatened taxa in the world. However, the extent to which climate change could compromise the conservation status of this group has rarely been investigated. The present study advances this issue under three specific aims: (1) to assess the impact of climate change on the distribution of endemic cacti species in the Baja California Peninsula (n?=?40), (2) to study how the impact of climate change is distributed in this group according to the species’ conservation status, and (3) to analyze how these impacts are organized from a biogeographical and functional perspective. We addressed these objectives under three socioeconomic emission pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5), and using two extreme migration scenarios: full climate change tracking and no migration. Altogether, all socioeconomic emission pathways under the two extreme migration scenarios show consistency regarding the identity of the species most vulnerable to climate change, and depict a discrepant future scenario that has, on one hand, species with large potential habitat gains/stability (winners); and on the other, species with large habitat reductions (losers). Our work indicates that winner species have a tropical affinity, globose growth, and includes most of the currently threatened species, whereas loser ones are in arid and Mediterranean systems and are mostly non-threatened. Thus, current and future threat factors do not overlap in the biogeographic and taxonomic space. That reveals a worrisome horizon at supraspecific levels in the study area, since the total number of threatened species in the future might largely increase.

     

Evolutionarily significant units in a flightless ground beetle show different climate niches and high extinction risk due to climate change

Species distribution models (SDMs), especially those basing on climatic parameters, have frequently been used to project future species ranges and to develop conservation strategies. As suggested by several authors, we considered both different dispersal abilities and different evolutionarily significant units (ESUs, as determined in an earlier genetic survey). For our study species, the flightless ground beetle Carabus irregularis, SDMs for two ESUs from the western and the Carpathian area of the distribution range showed immense, and deviating future range contractions reflecting divergent ecological requirements. As minimal dispersal SDMs resulted in a stronger decline of future ranges than the maximal dispersal models, low dispersal ability tended to strengthen the already high vulnerability of the cold-adapted mountain species to global warming. Areas shown in our maximal dispersal models as offering climatically suitable habitats for C. irregularis in the future should be considered as potential areas of action in future conservation planning (e.g. assisted migration or assisted colonisation). Thus, both dispersal scenarios and different (if applicable) ESUs should be considered when developing SDMs as useful tools for species conservation strategies adapted to species’ performance and differentiation patterns.     

Nature conservation: priority-setting needs a global change

The limited resources available for the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services call for prioritisation schemes. For instance, in the process of systematic conservation planning site selection is partly determined by efficiency gains. In this paper we present an alternative method for global spatial priority-setting based on ecological indicators, combined with social and economic conditions that influence the effectiveness of conservation, and measures for the long-term persistence of biodiversity. In the analysis the assumption made is that nature conservation should prioritize the effective maintenance of functional ecosystems that do not only provide the most ecosystem services but are also more likely to have a high adaptive capacity towards unavoidable environmental change. Furthermore, the effectiveness and permanence of conservation projects is tied to certain socioeconomic and political conditions that, as we suggest, should be evaluated as part of the conservation priority-setting process. We propose three new priority categories: eco-functionally wise (EcoWise), socioeconomically wise (SocioWise) and proactive allocation of conservation resources considering future climate change (ClimateWise) expressed as indices based on 16 different indicators. Analysing the combined effects of these three categories (EcoSocioClimateWise), in a spatially explicit way highlights the importance of tropical, subtropical but also some temperate and boreal forest areas all of which are characterized by high values of vegetation density, tree height and carbon storage. Our recommendations for policy makers prompt a shift in conservation planning towards advocating the use of ecological and socioeconomic indicators in combination with proxies for the vulnerability to future climate change impacts.     

Madagascar Fish Eagle productivity in the Tsimembo-Manambolomaty Protected Area and surrounding habitat of western Madagascar

We monitored the productivity of the critically endangered Madagascar Fish Eagle Haliaeetus vociferoides inside and outside of the Tsimembo-Manambolomaty Protected Area (T-M PA), western Madagascar from 2010 to 2015. We recorded 14 breeding pairs inside and 13 outside T-M PA. The T-M PA and surrounding habitat hosted respectively 10 and six breeding polyandrous pairs, composed of one adult female and two adult males. During the six-year study period, 101 eggs were laid in nests in T-M PA of which 60 hatched and 58 young fledged. We recorded 62 eggs laid in nests outside the T-M PA of which 39 hatched and 36 young fledged. Productivity was similar at both sites, inside and outside T-M PA, with 0.84 (58/69) and 0.76 (36/47) fledgling per nesting attempt and 0.69 (58/84) and 0.5 (36/72) fledglings per territorial pair, respectively. Polyandrous pairs have higher productivity compared with normal pairs. Threats to Madagascar Fish Eagles and their habitat were low due to the existence of a community-based resource management system called the Local Management Secured System (GELOSE) inside and outside the T-M PA. This system is based on strengthening local traditional customs and rules, and involving local people in managing their natural resources sustainably along with biodiversity conservation.     

Anthropogenic impact on habitat connectivity: A multidimensional human footprint index evaluated in a highly biodiverse landscape of Mexico

Evaluating the cumulative effects of the human footprint on landscape connectivity is crucial for implementing policies for the appropriate management and conservation of landscapes. We present an adjusted multidimensional spatial human footprint index (SHFI) to analyze the effects of landscape transformation on the remnant habitat connectivity for 40 terrestrial mammal species representative of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic System in Michoacán (TMVS_Mich), in western central Mexico. We adjusted the SHFI by adding fragmentation and habitat loss to its original three components: land use intensity, time of human landscape intervention, and biophysical vulnerability. The adjusted SHFI was applied to four scenarios: one grouping all species and three grouping several species by habitat spatial requirements. Using the SHFI as a dispersal resistance surface and applying a circuit theory based approach, we analyzed the effects of cumulative human impact on habitat connectivity in the different scenarios. For evaluating the relationship between habitat loss and connectivity, we applied graph theory-based equivalent connected area (ECA) index. Results show over 60% of the TMVS_Mich has high SHFI values, considerably lowering current flow for all species. Nevertheless, the effect on connectivity of human impact is higher for species with limited dispersal capacity (100–500 m). Our approach provides a new form of evaluating human impact on habitat connectivity that can be applied to different scales and landscapes. Furthermore, the approach is useful for guiding discussions and implementing future biodiversity conservation initiatives that promote landscape connectivity as an adaptive strategy for climate change.     

Towards systematic and evidence‐based conservation planning for western chimpanzees

As animal populations continue to decline, frequently driven by large‐scale land‐use change, there is a critical need for improved environmental planning. While data‐driven spatial planning is widely applied in conservation, as of yet it is rarely used for primates. The western chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes verus) declined by 80% within 24 years and was uplisted to Critically Endangered by the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species in 2016. To support conservation planning for western chimpanzees, we systematically identified geographic areas important for this taxon. We based our analysis on a previously published data set of modeled density distribution and on several scenarios that accounted for different spatial scales and conservation targets. Across all scenarios, typically less than one‐third of areas we identified as important are currently designated as high‐level protected areas (i.e., national park or IUCN category I or II). For example, in the scenario for protecting 50% of all chimpanzees remaining in West Africa (i.e., approximately 26,500 chimpanzees), an area of approximately 60,000 km² was selected (i.e., approximately 12% of the geographic range), only 24% of which is currently designated as protected areas. The derived maps can be used to inform the geographic prioritization of conservation interventions, including protected area expansion, “no‐go‐zones” for industry and infrastructure, and conservation sites outside the protected area network. Environmental guidelines by major institutions funding infrastructure and resource extraction projects explicitly require corporations to minimize the negative impact on great apes. Therefore, our results can inform avoidance and mitigation measures during the planning phases of such projects. This study was designed to inform future stakeholder consultation processes that could ultimately integrate the conservation of western chimpanzees with national land‐use priorities. Our approach may help in promoting similar work for other primate taxa to inform systematic conservation planning in times of growing threats.     

Using Seabird Habitat Modeling to Inform Marine Spatial Planning in Central California’s National Marine Sanctuaries

Understanding seabird habitat preferences is critical to future wildlife conservation and threat mitigation in California. The objective of this study was to investigate drivers of seabird habitat selection within the Gulf of the Farallones and Cordell Bank National Marine Sanctuaries to identify areas for targeted conservation planning. We used seabird abundance data collected by the Applied California Current Ecosystem Studies Program (ACCESS) from 2004–2011. We used zero-inflated negative binomial regression to model species abundance and distribution as a function of near surface ocean water properties, distances to geographic features and oceanographic climate indices to identify patterns in foraging habitat selection. We evaluated seasonal, inter-annual and species-specific variability of at-sea distributions for the five most abundant seabirds nesting on the Farallon Islands: western gull (Larus occidentalis), common murre (Uria aalge), Cassin’s auklet (Ptychorampus aleuticus), rhinoceros auklet (Cerorhinca monocerata) and Brandt’s cormorant (Phalacrocorax penicillatus). The waters in the vicinity of Cordell Bank and the continental shelf east of the Farallon Islands emerged as persistent and highly selected foraging areas across all species. Further, we conducted a spatial prioritization exercise to optimize seabird conservation areas with and without considering impacts of current human activities. We explored three conservation scenarios where 10, 30 and 50 percent of highly selected, species-specific foraging areas would be conserved. We compared and contrasted results in relation to existing marine protected areas (MPAs) and the future alternative energy footprint identified by the California Ocean Uses Atlas. Our results show that the majority of highly selected seabird habitat lies outside of state MPAs where threats from shipping, oil spills, and offshore energy development remain. This analysis accentuates the need for innovative marine spatial planning efforts and provides a foundation on which to build more comprehensive zoning and management in California’s National Marine Sanctuaries.     

Forecasting the combined effects of climate and land use change on Mexican bats

Aim

Climate and land use change are among the most important threatening processes driving biodiversity loss, especially in the tropics. Although the potential impacts of each threat have been widely studied in isolation, few studies have assessed the impacts of climate and land cover change in combination. Here, we evaluate the exposure of a large mammalian clade, bats, to multiple scenarios of environmental change and dispersal to understand potential consequences for biodiversity conservation.

Location

Mexico.

Methods

We used ensemble species distribution models to forecast changes in environmental suitability for 130 bat species that occur in Mexico by 2050s under four dispersal assumptions and four combined climate and land use change scenarios. We identified regions with the strongest projected impacts for each scenario and assessed the overlap across scenarios.

Results

The combined effects of climate and land use change will cause an average reduction in environmental suitability for 51% of the species across their range, regardless of scenario. Overall, species show a mean decrease in environmental suitability in at least 46% of their current range in all scenarios of change and dispersal. Climate scenarios had a higher impact on species environmental suitability than land use scenarios. There was a spatial overlap of 43% across the four environmental change scenarios for the regions projected to have the strongest impacts.

Main conclusions

Combined effects of future environmental change may result in substantial declines in environmental suitability for Mexican bats even under optimistic scenarios. This study highlights the vulnerability of megadiverse regions and an indicator taxon to human disturbance. The consideration of combined threats can make an important difference in how we react to changes to conserve our biodiversity as they pose different challenges.

     

Measuring impact of protected area management interventions: current and future use of the Global Database of Protected Area Management Effectiveness

Protected areas (PAs) are at the forefront of conservation efforts, and yet despite considerable progress towards the global target of having 17% of the world''s land area within protected areas by 2020, biodiversity continues to decline. The discrepancy between increasing PA coverage and negative biodiversity trends has resulted in renewed efforts to enhance PA effectiveness. The global conservation community has conducted thousands of assessments of protected area management effectiveness (PAME), and interest in the use of these data to help measure the conservation impact of PA management interventions is high. Here, we summarize the status of PAME assessment, review the published evidence for a link between PAME assessment results and the conservation impacts of PAs, and discuss the limitations and future use of PAME data in measuring the impact of PA management interventions on conservation outcomes. We conclude that PAME data, while designed as a tool for local adaptive management, may also help to provide insights into the impact of PA management interventions from the local-to-global scale. However, the subjective and ordinal characteristics of the data present significant limitations for their application in rigorous scientific impact evaluations, a problem that should be recognized and mitigated where possible.     

Low plant density enhances gene dispersal in the Amazonian understory herb Heliconia acuminata

In theory, conservation genetics predicts that forest fragmentation will reduce gene dispersal, but in practice, genetic and ecological processes are also dependent on other population characteristics. We used Bayesian genetic analyses to characterize parentage and propagule dispersal in Heliconia acuminata L. C. Richard (Heliconiaceae), a common Amazonian understory plant that is pollinated and dispersed by birds. We studied these processes in two continuous forest sites and three 1‐ha fragments in Brazil's Biological Dynamics of Forest Fragments Project. These sites showed variation in the density of H. acuminata. Ten microsatellite markers were used to genotype flowering adults and seedling recruits and to quantify realized pollen and seed dispersal distances, immigration of propagules from outside populations, and reproductive dominance among parents. We tested whether gene dispersal is more dependent on fragmentation or density of reproductive plants. Low plant densities were associated with elevated immigration rates and greater propagule dispersal distances. Reproductive dominance among inside‐plot parents was higher for low‐density than for high‐density populations. Elevated local flower and fruit availability is probably leading to spatially more proximal bird foraging and propagule dispersal in areas with high density of reproductive plants. Nevertheless, genetic diversity, inbreeding coefficients and fine‐scale spatial genetic structure were similar across populations, despite differences in gene dispersal. This result may indicate that the opposing processes of longer dispersal events in low‐density populations vs. higher diversity of contributing parents in high‐density populations balance the resulting genetic outcomes and prevent genetic erosion in small populations and fragments.     

全球变化情景下的中国木本植物受威胁物种名录

生物多样性正面临快速丧失的风险, 气候和土地利用变化已成为生物多样性的主要威胁之一。受威胁物种名录是区域和全球生物多样性保护的重要基础数据, 也是保护区规划的基础。作为一个生物多样性大国, 中国已开展了高等植物受威胁状况的系统性评估, 建立了受威胁植物名录, 为植物多样性保护规划提供了支撑。但由于数据和方法限制, 现有受威胁植物名录制定时未定量考虑全球变化对植物分布的潜在影响, 因而可能低估物种的受威胁等级及未来生物多样性的丧失风险。本研究基于高精度的木本植物分布数据和物种分布模型, 评估了未来气候和土地利用变化对木本植物分布的潜在影响。基于每个物种适宜分布区大小的变化, 并依据IUCN红色名录评估指标A3c的阈值标准, 更新了木本植物的受威胁等级, 补充了未来中国潜在受威胁木本植物名录。结果显示: 综合不同的气候变化情景(RCP 2.6、RCP 6.0和RCP 8.5)和扩散情景(完全扩散、20 km/10年、不扩散), 约12.9%-40.5%的木本植物被评估为受威胁物种。该名录将为制定木本植物保护优先级、开展保护区规划、提升全球变化情景下的生物多样性保护成效提供基础数据, 也为其他类群制定全面的受威胁物种名录提供参考。     

Conservation of Chinese Theaceae species under future climate and land use changes

Aim

Climate and land use changes are two major pervasive and growing global causes of rapid changes in the distribution patterns of biodiversity, challenging the future effectiveness of protected areas (PAs), which were mainly designed based on a static view of biodiversity. Therefore, evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas for protecting the species threatened by climate and land use change is critical for future biodiversity conservation.

Location

China.

Methods

Here, using distributions of 200 Chinese Theaceae species and ensemble species distribution models, we identified species threatened by future climate and land use change (i.e. species with predicted loss of suitable habitat ≥30%) under scenarios incorporating climate change, land use change and dispersal. We then estimate the richness distribution patterns of threatened species and identify priority conservation areas and conservation gaps of the current PA network.

Results

Our results suggest that 36.30%–51.85% of Theaceae species will be threatened by future climate and land use conditions and that although the threatened species are mainly distributed at low latitudes in China under both current and future periods, the mean richness of the threatened species per grid cell will decline by 0.826–3.188 species by the 2070s. Moreover, we found that these priority conservation areas are highly fragmented and that the current PA network only covers 14.21%–20.87% of the ‘areas worth exploring’ and 6.91%–7.91% of the ‘areas worth attention’.

Main Conclusions

Our findings highlight the necessity of establishing new protected areas and ecological corridors in priority conservation areas to protect the threatened species. Moreover, our findings also highlight the importance of taking into consideration the potential threatened species under future climate and land use conditions when designating priority areas for biodiversity conservation.     

Prediction of climate warming impacts on plant species could be more complex than expected. Evidence from a case study in the Himalaya

Many studies have investigated the possible impact of climate change on the distributions of plant species. In the present study, we test whether the concept of potential distribution is able to effectively predict the impact of climate warming on plant species.Using spatial simulation models, we related the actual (current species distribution), potential (modelled distribution assuming unlimited dispersal) and predicted (modelled distribution accounting for wind-limited seed dispersal) distributions of two plant species under several warming scenarios in the Sagarmatha National Park (Nepal). We found that the two predicted distributions were, respectively, seven and nine times smaller than the potential ones. Under a +3 °C scenario, both species would likely lose their actual and predicted distributions, while their potential distributions would remain partially safe. Our results emphasize that the predicted distributions of plant species may diverge to a great extent from their potential distributions, particularly in mountain areas, and predictions of species preservation in the face of climate warming based on the potential distributions of plant species are at risk of producing overoptimistic projections.We conclude that the concept of potential distribution is likely to lead to limited or inefficacious conservation of plant species due to its excessively optimistic projections of species preservation. More robust strategies should utilize concepts such as “optimal reintroduction”, which maximizes the benefit–cost ratio of conservation activities by limiting reintroduction efforts to suitable areas that could not otherwise be reached by a species; moreover, such strategies maximize the probability of species establishment by excluding areas that will be endangered under future climate scenarios.