Sex-specific spatio-temporal variability in reproductive success promotes the evolution of sex-biased dispersal

Inbreeding depression, asymmetries in costs or benefits of dispersal, and the mating system have been identified as potential factors underlying the evolution of sex-biased dispersal. We use individual-based simulations to explore how the mating system and demographic stochasticity influence the evolution of sex-specific dispersal in a metapopulation with females competing over breeding sites, and males over mating opportunities. Comparison of simulation results for random mating with those for a harem system (locally, a single male sires all offspring) reveal that even extreme variance in local male reproductive success (extreme male competition) does not induce male-biased dispersal. The latter evolves if the between-patch variance in reproductive success is larger for males than females. This can emerge due to demographic stochasticity if the habitat patches are small. More generally, members of a group of individuals experiencing higher spatio-temporal variance in fitness expectations may evolve to disperse with greater probability than others.     

Genetics of the Shimokita macaque population suggest an ancient bottleneck

The macaque population of the Shimokita Peninsula represents the northernmost distribution of this species and is isolated from other populations in the Tohoku region of Japan. A previous protein-based study revealed a high level of genetic variability in this population and considerable differentiation from other populations. In order to reassess the genetic features of the Shimokita macaques, we examined 11 autosomal microsatellite loci and three Y chromosomal microsatellite loci. We observed considerable differentiation from other Japanese populations of macaques, but in contrast to the previous results, we observed significantly lower genetic variability in this population. There was a weak indication of a population bottleneck, suggesting a decay over time from an excess of heterozygotes that might be expected in the initial stages of a bottleneck. This may indicate that an ancient bottleneck occurred during the warm period after the last glacial period rather than a recent bottleneck due to hunting in modern times. The frequencies of private alleles were exceptionally high in the Shimokita population, suggesting that the difference in variability as determined in various studies was due to accidental sampling of marker loci with low power to resolve genetic variations in the protein-based studies. The assessments of interpopulation differentiation as determined using autosomal and Y chromosomal markers were highly correlated, and using both types of markers the Shimokita population was found to be the most differentiated of the study populations, probably due to infrequent gene flow with surrounding populations.     

Integrating population demography, genetics and self-incompatibility in a viability assessment of the Wee Jasper Grevillea (Grevillea iaspicula McGill., Proteaceae)

Grevillea iaspicula is an endangered shrub known from only eight small populations (<250 individuals) in south-eastern Australia. The species is threatened by combined ecological and genetic factors, e.g. land conversion, weed invasion, low recruitment and low gene flow among populations. The populations also show large variance in male fitness and limited mate availability which are thought to arise as a consequence of gametophytic self-incompatibility (GSI). This study has used an individual-based, spatially explicit simulation model to explore the interaction between GSI and mate limitation in this species, as well as its effect on long-term population viability. The model was parameterised with demographic and genetic data obtained from 2 years of population monitoring. Simulation results identified extremely low establishment rates as the most critical factor currently influencing the persistence of G. iaspicula populations and indicated that the extant populations are at serious risk of extinction in the near future unless this is altered by, at very least, an order of magnitude higher. SI was shown to affect the magnitude of variation in establishment but this effect was masked when establishment was critically low. Disassortative mating, owing to low allelic richness at the S-locus, had the negative demographic effect of restricting mating to relatively few compatible plants. Restricted mate availability imposed additional limitations to the viability of populations but, given a 20-fold increase in establishment rate, population fluctuations stabilised. The long-term viability of G. iaspicula is bleak without artificial augmentation of the populations but management planning must also consider genetic processes, including SI, to ensure such strategies optimise the benefits gained.     

A harvest framework for a recovering American black bear population

Having reproducible and transparent science-based processes in wildlife management ensures the integrity of decision making. These processes are particularly important when establishing harvest frameworks, as guiding information in the peer-reviewed literature is limited. We provide an example using multiple data sets, whose products guided aspects of the development of a harvest framework for a population of recolonizing American black bears (Ursus americanus) in Missouri, USA. To characterize the spatial distribution of harvest, we used 10 years (2010–2019) of black bear global positioning system (GPS) location data and 30 years (1991–2020) of sightings data to assess spatial vulnerability to harvest as the intersection among information on bear occurrence, bear sightings, and hunter land-use tendencies (i.e., the avoidance of steep slopes, large distances from roads). We then used the spatial vulnerability assessment, information on the distribution of public and private lands, and easily discernable boundaries (i.e., major highways, rivers) to suggest boundaries for bear management zones. Additionally, to identify the timing of harvest that would limit female harvest bias, we assessed the temporal vulnerability of harvest using sex-based changes in average daily step lengths and monthly utilization distribution sizes during fall. Black bear occurrence and sighting propensity was greater in southwestern Missouri, and potential hunter land use appeared pervasive across the landscape given the lack of landscape features that would disincentivize use. Given the influence of black bear occurrence and sighting propensity, spatial harvest vulnerability diminished from southern and southeastern to central portions of Missouri, with areas north of the Missouri River not a part of the established black bear range. We consequently divided areas south of the Missouri River into 3 black bear management zones: a small southwestern zone with primarily private lands and high harvest vulnerability, a southeastern zone that encompassed considerable public lands and moderate amounts of vulnerability, and a central zone that was composed mainly of areas of low vulnerability. Temporally, males did not exhibit movement-based changes, but females became less active after the first week of October and used 63.9% less area through fall. Based on movements rates of males and females, a hunting season after the first week of October could reduce the likelihood of females being harvested. Harvests from the black bear harvest season in 2021 suggest that the proportion of bears harvested in each zone was similar in distribution to the proportion of permits allocated across zones with no harvest sex bias, which was aligned with agency goals. Animal movement and space use data products can guide harvest framework decision-making.     

Incorporating environmental stochasticity within a biological population model

The birth and death transition rates for a population are modelled as functions of both the population size and the environmental condition. An assortment of important theoretical results and techniques that can be utilized to analyze such a population’s behaviour is covered. Consequently, these results and techniques are used to study two examples. Firstly, we study a population with a stable equilibrium state, whose per capita birth and death rates are linearly related to the environmental condition. (The environmental condition in turn is modelled as an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process.) Secondly, we study a population affected by two interdependent environmental factors.     

Using an individual-based model for assessment of sea turtle population viability

Marine turtle species have a complex life history characterized by interannual variability in reproductive performance and a long life span. These ecological features in combination with the animals highly migratory nature create numerous difficulties when trying to assess population dynamics. This study attempts to couple existing information on species demographics and behavioral strategies with simple energetic rules in a theoretical framework. We study sea turtle population dynamics using an individual-based model that incorporates known behavioral-ecological characteristics of the species. Methodology used to design the model was based on the superindividual approach (Scheffer et al. Ecol Model 80:161–170, 1995). We constructed our simulation experiment on a virtual sea turtle population, which was parameterized by using recent literature reviews with emphasis on reproductive parameters of the Mediterranean loggerhead sea turtle population. Switching rules describing critical processes of reproductive performances were established as theoretical functions of efficiency of energy transfer. In order to explore the significance of variable reproductive patterns upon population dynamics and persistence, a series of simulations was performed. The model was also run under fluctuated demographic variables to perform a sensitivity analysis of critical parameters and life-history stages. Based on the specific model parameterization, simulation results show that population persistence was most sensitive to fecundity and to survival at the pelagic juvenile stage. Additionally a surprising finding is the relatively high importance of egg survival in terms of both hatching and hatchling success. We conclude that enhancing the population with new individuals by increasing survival in the early life stages could compensate for additional losses in other age classes. The need for further research regarding biological and behavioral features as well as basic demographic insights into the endangered loggerhead sea turtle is also highlighted.     

长江江豚种群生存力分析

长江江豚是一个独立的种群,由于人类活动的影响,其数量呈下降的趋势,运用漩涡模型（ＶＯＲＴＥＸ７．３）分析了长江江豚的种群生存力,预测了未来１００ａ长江江豚的种群动态,比较了在假设环境条件下以及采取和不采取保护措施长江江豚种群的濒危程度,并模拟了江豚饲养群体的动态,主要结果显示,长江江豚在未来１００ａ内灭绝的概率为０．０１平均灭绝时间为１００ａ,如长江环境状况进一步恶化,长江江豚的灭绝概率针大幅度提     

Using population viability analysis to examine the potential long-term impact of fisheries bycatch on protected species

Fisheries bycatch is recognised as the dominant anthropogenic threat facing many protected species globally. Estimates of total bycatch are often associated with wide confidence intervals as a result of limited coverage by on-board observers. This makes it difficult for managers to assess risk and design effective management plans. Here, we present a case study of grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) bycatch in static net fisheries across Irish waters, where potentially unsustainable bycatch levels have been reported with typically wide confidence intervals. We used Population Viability Analysis (PVA) to explore potential bycatch scenarios at a national level in order to inform future monitoring and management efforts; including (i) a baseline scenario where the probability of seals becoming bycaught was independent of age and sex; (ii) probability was biased towards juvenile, male, or female seals; (iii) there was net immigration of seals from outside of the national population; and (iv) colony-specific bycatch rates were applied to assess the relative vulnerability of the major grey seal breeding colonies to bycatch mortality. Results demonstrated that (i) higher levels of bycatch reduced population growth, with bycatch of 800 seals per year reducing the national population by 99% over 100 years; (ii) population viability was most sensitive to bycatch mortality of female seals, and more robust to juvenile or male mortality; (iii) recruitment of 500 seals per year prevented population decline despite a worst-case bycatch scenario of 800 seals bycaught per year; (iv) colonies in the south and southwest were the first to show signs of decline under increasing bycatch pressure. PVA provides a clear justification for improved monitoring of seal bycatch to obtain more precise bycatch estimates, and highlights the need for future studies to identify appropriate grey seal management units.     

Phenotypic plasticity and population viability: the importance of environmental predictability

Phenotypic plasticity plays a key role in modulating how environmental variation influences population dynamics, but we have only rudimentary understanding of how plasticity interacts with the magnitude and predictability of environmental variation to affect population dynamics and persistence. We developed a stochastic individual-based model, in which phenotypes could respond to a temporally fluctuating environmental cue and fitness depended on the match between the phenotype and a randomly fluctuating trait optimum, to assess the absolute fitness and population dynamic consequences of plasticity under different levels of environmental stochasticity and cue reliability. When cue and optimum were tightly correlated, plasticity buffered absolute fitness from environmental variability, and population size remained high and relatively invariant. In contrast, when this correlation weakened and environmental variability was high, strong plasticity reduced population size, and populations with excessively strong plasticity had substantially greater extinction probability. Given that environments might become more variable and unpredictable in the future owing to anthropogenic influences, reaction norms that evolved under historic selective regimes could imperil populations in novel or changing environmental contexts. We suggest that demographic models (e.g. population viability analyses) would benefit from a more explicit consideration of how phenotypic plasticity influences population responses to environmental change.     

A mathematical synthesis of niche and neutral theories in community ecology

The debate between niche-based and neutral community theories centers around the question of which forces shape predominantly ecological communities. Niche theory attributes a central role to niche differences between species, which generate a difference between the strength of intra- and interspecific interactions. Neutral theory attributes a central role to migration processes and demographic stochasticity. One possibility to bridge these two theories is to combine them in a common mathematical framework. Here we propose a mathematical model that integrates the two perspectives. From a niche-based perspective, our model can be interpreted as a Lotka-Volterra model with symmetric interactions in which we introduce immigration and demographic stochasticity. From a neutral perspective, it can be interpreted as Hubbell's local community model in which we introduce a difference between intra- and interspecific interactions. We investigate the stationary species abundance distribution and other community properties as functions of the interaction coefficient, the immigration rate and the strength of demographic stochasticity.     

Microsatellite analysis of genetic variation in black bear populations

Measuring levels of genetic variation is an important aspect of conservation genetics The informativeness of such measurements is related to the variability of the genetic markers used; a particular concern in species, such as bears, which are characterized by low levels of genetic variation resulting from low population densities and small effective population sizes We describe the development of microsatellite analysis in bears and its use in assessing interpopulation differences in genetic variation in black bears from three Canadian National Parks These markers are highly variable and allowed identification of dramatic differences in both distribution and amount of variation between populations Low levels of variation were observed in a population from the Island of Newfoundland The significance of interpopulation differences in variability was tested using a likelihood ratio test of estimates of θ= 4 N_eu.     

Population genetics of the white-phased "Spirit" black bear of British Columbia

The Spirit (or Kermode) bear is a white-phased black bear found on the northwest coast of British Columbia, and is one of the most striking color polymorphisms found in mammals. A single nucleotide polymorphism at the melanocortin 1 receptor gene (mc1r) locus is the cause of this recessive w variant. Recently, evidence suggests that the white color provides a selective advantage during salmon hunting. Here we examine the effects of favorable selection, gene flow, genetic drift, and positive-assortative mating in an effort to understand the establishment and maintenance of this polymorphism and the observed heterozygote deficiency for mc1r but not for microsatellite loci. It appears that genetic drift was important in the establishment of the w allele and that the selective advantage was important to counteract immigration from populations without the w allele. Positive-assortative mating can result in a deficiency of heterozygotes but needs to be quite high to result in the large deficiency of heterozygotes observed, suggesting that other factors must also be contributing. Examination of population genetic factors, singly and jointly, provides insight into the establishment and maintenance of this unusual polymorphism.     

A method for validating stochastic models of population viability: a case study of the mountain pygmy-possum (Burramys parvus)

1.  A method of validating stochastic models of population viability is proposed, based on assessing the mean and variance of the predicted population size.
2.  The method is illustrated with a model of the population dynamics of the mountain pygmy-possum ( Burramys parvus Broom 1895), based on annual census data collected from a single population in the Snowy Mountains of New South Wales, Australia between 1986 and 1997. The model incorporates density-dependence in survivorship and recruitment, and demographic and environmental stochasticity.
3.  The model appeared to make reasonable predictions for the three populations that were used for validation, provided the equilibrium population size was estimated accurately. This may require that differences in habitat quality between populations be taken into account.
4.  Following validation, the model was given new parameters using the additional data from the three populations, and the risk of population decline within the next 100 years was assessed. Although populations as small as 15 females are predicted to be relatively safe from extinction caused by stochastic processes, B. parvus appears vulnerable to loss of habitat and reductions in the population growth rate.
5.  The approach used in this paper is one of few attempts to validate a model of population viability using field data, and demonstrates that some aspects of stochastic population models can be tested.     

种群生存力分析:准确性和保护应用

目前已提出了五类估计濒危物种绝灭风险的种群生存力分析模型 ,即 :分析模型、单种群确定性模型、单种群随机模型、异质种群模型和显空间模型。模型的选择取决于物种的生活史特征和可用的数据。与用于保护实践的其他方法相比 ,种群生存力分析 (PVA)是相对准确的量化工具。然而 ,一些濒危物种种群统计学数据质量差和种群动态的有关假说模糊不清可能影响到模型预测的准确性 ,因此 ,要谨慎地使用PVA。在西方国家 ,PVA在濒危物种保护计划和管理中应用越来越广泛。它主要用于 :( 1)预测濒危物种未来的种群大小 ;( 2 )估计一定时间内物种的绝灭风险 ;( 3 )评估一套保护措施 ,确定哪个能使种群的存活时间最长 ;( 4)探索不同假说对小种群动态的影响 ;( 5 )指导濒危动物野外数据的搜集工作。我国的濒危物种很多 ,然而开展PVA研究的濒危物种却很少。应大力发展适合于模拟我国特有濒危物种及其保护问题的PVA模型     

Stochastic density dependence in population size of a benthic clonal invertebrate: the regulating role of fission

The influence of environmental variation on the demography of clonal organisms has been poorly studied. I utilise a matrix model of the population dynamics of the intertidal zoanthid Palythoa caesia to examine how density dependence and temporal variation in demographic rates interact in regulating population size. The model produces realistic simulations of population size, with erratic fluctuations between soft lower and upper boundaries of approximately 55 and 90% cover. Cover never exceeds the maximum possible of 100%, and the population never goes to extinction. A sensitivity analysis indicates that the model’s behaviour is driven by density dependence in the fission of large colonies to produce intermediate sized colonies. Importantly, there is no density-dependent mortality in the model, and density dependence in recruitment, while present, is unimportant. Thus it appears that the main demographic processes which are considered to regulate population size in aclonal organisms may not be important for clonal species. Received: 18 August 1999 / Accepted: 29 October 1999     

Stochastic growth and extinction in a spatial geometric Brownian population model with migration and correlated noise

A continuous spatial model for populations that are not density-regulated is analyzed. The model is a generalization of the geometric Brownian motion often used to describe populations at a single location. The locations are linked by migration and spatial correlation in the noise. At any point of time, the population size at a given location is log normally distributed so the log population size constitutes a Gaussian field. The model is homogeneous in space but not in time. In particular, we analyze the case when the stochastic growth rate is negative and the total population approaches extinction. The properties of the extinction process is studied by considering local quasi-extinctions. A major conclusion is that migration tends to increase the time to extinction provided that there is no cost of migration. However, as the area occupied by the species starts to decrease, the decrease is faster for populations with larger migration.     

无量山大寨子黑长臂猿(Nomascus concolor jingdongensis)种群生存力

据2003年9月至2005年9月,对云南中部无量山大寨子黑长臂猿种群(5个群体)进行了观察,获得了群体大小、配偶体制、繁殖间隔、环境容纳量、死亡率、灾害的发生频率等种群参数,并结合近缘种的一些相关数据,利用旋涡模型(Vortex 914),对无量山大寨子地区黑长臂猿亚种群的动态进行了模拟分析。结果显示:大寨子亚种群是一个具有很强的潜在繁殖力的种群,如果没有偷猎,亚种群在100a之内不会灭绝,并且能迅速达到环境容纳量。但是每年如果有1只成年雄性和1只成年雌性被猎杀,该种群将会在第78年灭绝,且灭绝概率为100%。不同程度的死亡率对种群影响不大,但高死亡率显著延缓了种群到达环境容纳量的时间。环境容纳量对种群遗传多样性损失具有重要的影响,在没有猎杀的情况下,种群的长期存活需要一个较大的环境容纳量。因此,在黑长臂猿受到严格保护、且栖息地主要在保护区内的今天,严密监控火灾的发生,限制牲畜进入林区等人为干扰的影响,保护好黑长臂猿栖息地是首要工作之一。但如果能使其栖息地周围的森林植被得到恢复,增加其栖息范围,将有利于该地区黑长臂猿的发展。