基于MaxEnt模型的云南干热河谷适生树种选择

基于MaxEnt模型识别和预测云南干热河谷适生树种,对于改善和恢复其生态治理能力具有重要意义。收集40种具有代表性的潜在适生树种地理分布数据,结合气候、地形和土壤等环境因子,利用MaxEnt模型筛选适生树种。预测当前和2021-2040年四种气候情景下(SSP126、SSP245、SSP370和SSP585)适生树种适生区的分布格局,划分优先种植区域,并明确MaxEnt模型用于树种选择的可行性。结果表明:(1)当前气候情景下,影响干热河谷潜在适生树种分布的主导因子是气候因子,其次是海拔、植物归一化指数、地表太阳辐射量和人类足迹。(2)未来,24种适生树种适生区稳定,发生概率与海拔关系呈单峰分布且高海拔下适生树种丰富度将降低。(3)干热河谷适生树种优先种植区域沿干热河谷呈狭长分布;实际调查发现,元谋县适生树种实际分布区域面积略高于最佳种植区域面积。应用MaxEnt模型筛选干热河谷适生树种选择是可行的,但在应用之前必须通过实地调查来验证树种实际生存情况与预测结果的差异。在干热河谷生态修复造林时,可优先考虑白枪杆、车桑子等24种树种。     

North American orangutan species survival plan: Current status and progress in the 1980s

The SSP program for orangutan (Pongo pygmaeus ssp.) was initiated in 1982. Since that time, the Propagation Group has dealt with issues related to improving captive management of the species. Prior to 1982, most orangutans in North America were managed as a single species, though a number of institutions did house their Bornean and Sumatran specimens separately. However, the determination of race at that time was made largely on the basis of physical appearance, a method subsequently proven imprecise. A major achievement of the SSP has been the refinement of orangutan subspecies determination; SSP-sponsored karotyping has determined, on a chromosomal level, the true subspecies of virtually every orangutan managed by the SSP. The validity of these results has been confirmed by recent fieldwork, also completed under the auspices of the SSP. Since 1985, as a result of these captive and field data, the SSP has held to the policy that subspecific hybrid orangutans should not be produced; to that end, there is a moratorium on the breeding of hybrid animals. Another significant step taken by the SSP group is the completion of the sophisticated demographic and genetic analyses, leading to the development of a Masterplan for this species and its captive management. Goals for the near future include refinement of the Masterplan analyses and publication of a new international studbook for the species.     

Evidence for African origins of founders of the asiatic lion species survival plan

The Asiatic lion (Panthera leo persica) exists in the wild as a single relict population of approximately 250 individuals in the protected Gir Forest Sanctuary in western India. In 1981, a species survival plan (SSP) for the Asiatic lion was established by the American Association of Zoological Parks and Aquariums to manage the 200 + descendants of Asiatic lions in captivity in western zoological facilities. This captive population was derived from seven founders. In order to compare the genetic structure of the Gir Forest population with that of the captive SSP population, a genetic survey of 46 electrophoretic allozyme systems resolved from extracts of lion blood was undertaken by using 29 SSP Asiatic lions and 28 wild-caught or captive-bred lions maintained at the Sakkarbaug Zoo in India but originally derived from the Gir Forest. The Gir lion population was found to be genetically monomorphic at each of 46 allozyme loci. This was in contrast to several African lion (Panthera leo leo) populations, which show moderate levels of allozyme variation at the same loci. The SSP lion population was polymorphic at three allozyme loci (IDHI, TF, and PTI) for alleles that were previously found only in African lion populations. Pedigree analysis of the genetic transmission of these three biochemical loci demonstrated that two of the five primary founder animals of the SSP Asiatic lion population (a breeding pair originally imported from the Trivandrum Zoo in southern India) were descendants of the African subspecies. Three other founder animals were pure Asian. A retrospective SSP pedigree analysis of two morphologic characters (prominent abdominal fold and pairing of infraorbital foramen) that are partially diagnostic for persica vs leo was consistent with this conclusion as well. The implications for the management of small captive populations of threatened species and of the Asiatic lion SSP population are discussed.     

Mopane (Colophospermum mopane): A potential winner under climate change in southern Africa

Distribution and abundance under climate change of particularly non-timber forest product tree species is vital since they sustain many livelihoods, especially in rural sub-Saharan Africa. The aim of the study was to determine the current and future natural range of mopane (Colophospermum mopane (J. Kirk ex Benth.) J. Léonard, Fabaceae), a dominant tree species in mopane woodlands of southern Africa. An ensemble model was built in ‘biomod2’ from eight algorithms and used to estimate the current and future distribution. Seven bioclimatic variables and 269 occurrence records were used to calibrate individual models that were later combined into an ensemble model. The ensemble model was projected to two time periods, 2041–2060 and 2081–2100, under two shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs), SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, and three general circulation models (GCMs). The ensemble model showed high performance (KAPPA = 0.770, ROC = 0.961, TSS = 0.792, ACCURACY = 0.900). A map of the current distribution shows occurrence predominantly in low-lying areas, including the Zambezi, Save and Limpopo valleys, Okavango and Cuvelai basins, and in southern and central Mozambique. Projection maps show expansion under all SSPs, GCMs and time periods. Averaged across GCMs in 2041–2060, the range expanded by 22.37% under SSP2-4.5, and by 19.94% under SSP5-8.5. In 2081–2100, the range expanded by 20.43% under SSP2-4.5, and by 27.62% under SSP5-8.5. Notably, the range expansion was highest under SSP5-8.5, an SSP that envisages unmitigated greenhouse gas release and the largest mean global temperature increase. It is highly likely that mopane is not directly threatened by climate change. Indirect climate change threats, however, remain uncertain.     

Predicting the impact of future climate changes and range-shifts of Indian hornbills (family: Bucerotidae)

Climate change influences species distribution and is regarded as a major threat to biodiversity. Hornbills (Family: Bucerotidae) are large tropical birds in Asia and Africa. They are seed dispersers known as forest farmers because they help maintain the ecological community structure by allowing forest regeneration. They are keystone species, and their presence in a forest implies a healthy ecosystem. Range shifts due to climate change is a serious threat because their long-term survival is already imperilled by anthropogenic disturbances. This study models the current and future potential climatic niches of eight of the nine hornbill species present in India. We used GBIF-mediated species presence records along with eight WorldClim V2.1 bioclimatic variables to model the current climatically suitable areas and projected it into the future (mid-century, i.e., 2041–60 and end of the century, i.e., 2081–2100) for different CMIP6 based Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSPs) (i.e., SSP126, SSP245, 370 and 585). Range shifts, centroid changes, and the impact of current land use practices for each of the eight species under various climatic conditions were also examined. The Area Under Curve (AUC) values for final models ranged between 0.736 and 0.994. Result indicates that majority of species' climatic niche shift is towards the west, followed by northwest and northern shifts. The species are expected to lose >40% of their suitable present climatic niche under the SSP 585 scenario in 2081–2100. Natural areas were found to be climatically suitable for hornbills throughout the study area, implying the merit of conserving their existing habitats. Our research provides detailed information on how the distribution of Indian Hornbills may change because of future climatic conditions. Detailed spatial and temporal distribution and range shift patterns will aid in a targeted approach for conserving hornbills and their habitat in a changing climate.     

Interactions of target population size,population parameters,and program management on viability of captive populations

When established conservation programs expand and evolve, management practices may become inconsistent with program goals. In the past decade, the American Zoo and Aquarium Association expanded species conservation programs by increasing the number of Species Survival Plans (SSP) and establishing more than 300 new Population Management Plan (PMP) programs. However, limited space in captive breeding facilities forces a competition among SSPs and less intensively managed PMPs. Regional Collection Plans establish priorities and allocate space accordingly by setting target population size for each species; species of high conservation priority (SSPs) are allocated space at the expense of lower priority species (PMPs). Because population size and genetic composition interact to impact population viability, target population size is a significant factor to a population’s prospects for long‐term survival. We examined four population parameters (current population size, target population size, current gene diversity, and mean generation time) for 46 mammalian SSPs and 17 PMPs. Relative to SSPs, PMPs combine smaller current and target population sizes, lower levels of current gene diversity, and shorter mean generation times than SSPs. Thus, the average PMP population can expect to lose gene diversity more rapidly than the average SSP population. PMPs are projected to lose 10% or more of their founding gene diversity, within only 2 years. In contrast, the average SSP population is projected to lose 10% in 40 years. Populations with small current or target population sizes require intensive management to avoid extinction. More intensive genetic management of populations typically designated as PMPs, through recruitment of potential founders and equalization of founder representation, could increase gene diversity and improve viability. Less rigorous population management should be reserved for populations whose long‐term survival is either secure or that can be readily replenished from the wild. Because PMP populations need intense genetic management similar to that currently in effect for SSPs, there should be neither a management‐level distinction between programs nor an arbitrary difference in space allocated to programs. Zoo Biol 20:169–183, 2001. © 2001 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Estimated number of snake species that can be managed by Species Survival Plans in North America

A survey designed to estimate the number of snake enclosures available for Species Survival Plan (SSP) programs was distributed to all North American zoos containing 100 or more reptile and amphibian specimens. Of the 52 zoos surveyed, 44 (84.6%) responded, indicating that 790 (26.3%) of the 3,012 snake enclosures were available for SSP programs. Available enclosures were classified by size and existing themes to help define limitations of the potential SSP space. This spatial information was then used in conjunction with existing population genetics models to estimate that up to 16 snake species can be accommodated by SSP programs in these zoos collectively. Values used in the models were estimates of those for an average snake species with a generation time of 15 years, lambda of 1.15, with 26 effective founders, and an n_e/n ratio of 0.3. It was further assumed that 90% of the genetic variation would be maintained in each species for a period of 100 years. Tactics to increase the number of species that SSP programs can accommodate include: increase reserve space, devote more space for SSP snakes, lengthen generation time, promote gene exchange with wild populations, goal SSP programs for less than 200 years, invest in short-term programs, involve the private sector, build new enclosures, increase the number of snakes per enclosure, and encourage participation of non-North American institutions. To maximize biological diversity in relation to captive carrying capacity, it is recommended that SSP programs represent both infraorders of living snakes and as many families within those infraorders as possible. Although not all 16 families of snakes are likely to be represented due to exhibit value, obtainability, and husbandry success, it may be possible to represent as many as nine families in 16 SSP programs. © 1993 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

Assessing possible hybridization among managed Nubian ibex in North America

Hybridization among closely related species is a concern in zoo and aquarium populations where unpedigreed animals are frequently exchanged with the private sector. In this study, we examine possible hybridization in a group of Nubian ibex (Capra nubiana) imported into the Association of Zoos and Aquariums’ (AZA) Species Survival Program (SSP) from a private institution. These individuals appeared smaller in stature than adult SSP Nubian ibex and were excluded from breeding recommendations over the concern that they were hybrids. Twenty-six microsatellites were used to rule out recent hybridization with domestic goats, Siberian ibex (Capra sibirica), and Alpine ibex (Capra ibex). We argue that natural phenotypic variation across the large geographic range of Nubian ibex may account for the small stature of the imported ibex, as private institutions may have historically acquired individuals from locations that differed from the SSP founders. However, the imported Nubian ibex appeared genetically differentiated from the SSP Nubian ibex and may represent a source of genetic variation for the managed population.     

Application of assisted reproduction for population management in felids: the potential and reality for conservation of small cats

Assisted reproductive technology (ART), using the primary applied tools of AI, ET, and sperm and embryo cryopreservation, has been promoted over the past decades for its potential to conserve endangered wildlife, including felids. However, if the goal is efficient, consistent production of viable offspring for population management, then the 'potential' of ART has yet to become 'reality' for any non-domestic cat species. For the five small-sized felids (i.e., Brazilian ocelot, fishing cat, Pallas' cat, Arabian sand cat, black-footed cat) managed by Species Survival Plans (SSPs) in North American zoos, achieving this potential may be an absolute necessity if genetically viable captive populations are to be maintained into the next century. Modeling programs suggest that current SSP populations are not sustainable without periodic introduction of new founders and improved demographic parameters, including longer generation intervals and larger population sizes. ART provides the means to address each of these management challenges. In each small cat SSP species, fecal hormone metabolite assays and seminal analysis have proven useful for characterizing basal reproductive parameters, a necessary prerequisite to developing ART. Of the five SSP species, ART has been used to produce living offspring only in the ocelot, including after AI with frozen-thawed spermatozoa and following transfer of frozen-thawed IVF embryos. The true efficacy of these techniques, however, is still unknown. To improve the applicability of ART for population management, priorities for immediate research include further investigation of ovarian stimulation protocols, sperm and embryo cryopreservation methods, embryo culture systems, and fetal and neonatal viability following ART.     

Network-scale effects of invasive species on spatially-structured amphibian populations

Understanding the factors affecting the dynamics of spatially-structured populations (SSP) is a central topic of conservation and landscape ecology. Invasive alien species are increasingly important drivers of the dynamics of native species. However, the impacts of invasives are often assessed at the patch scale, while their effects on SSP dynamics are rarely considered. We used long-term abundance data to test whether the impact of invasive crayfish on subpopulations can also affect the whole SSP dynamics, through their influence on source populations. From 2010 to 2018, we surveyed a network of 58 ponds and recorded the abundance of Italian agile frog clutches, the occurrence of an invasive crayfish, and environmental features. Using Bayesian hierarchical models, we assessed relationhips between frog abundance in ponds and a) environmental features; b) connectivity within the SSP; c) occurrence of invasive species at both the patch- and the SSP-levels. If spatial relationships between ponds were overlooked, we did not detect effects of crayfish presence on frog abundance or trends. When we jointly considered habitat, subpopulation and SSP features, processes acting at all these levels affected frog abundance. At the subpopulation scale, frog abundance in a year was related to habitat features, but was unrelated to crayfish occurrence at that site during the previous year. However, when we considered the SSP level, we found a strong negative relationship between frog abundance in a given site and crayfish frequency in surrounding wetlands during the previous year. Hence, SSP-level analyses can identify effects that would remain unnoticed when focussing on single patches. Invasive species can affect population dynamics even in not invaded patches, through the degradation of subpopulation networks. Patch-scale assessments of the impact of invasive species can thus be insufficient: predicting the long-term interplay between invasive and native populations requires landscape-level approaches accounting for the complexity of spatial interactions.     

Causes of mortality in captive cotton‐top tamarins (Saguinus oedipus)

Cotton‐top tamarins have been housed in captivity in the United States for over five decades. These animals initially were managed in biomedical and research facilities, and more recently have been kept in zoos as well. Although the causes of mortality in captive cotton‐top tamarins have been a topic of investigation for biomedical colonies, they have not been addressed for the North American zoo population. In this retrospective study we review the causes of mortality in the AZA Cotton‐top Tamarin Species Survival Plan (SSP)© population during 1997–2001 to assess current husbandry practices and assist in further developing effective husbandry and management programs for this endangered species. Zoo Biol 23:127–137, 2004. © 2004 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

气候变化情景下祁连圆柏在青海省的适宜分布区预测

祁连圆柏具有良好的水土保持功能,是青海省高寒干旱地区造林绿化的优良乡土树种之一,预测未来气候变化情景下祁连圆柏在青海省的潜在地理分布将为祁连圆柏的经营管理和引种栽培提供理论指导。本研究基于实地调查和资料搜集获得88个有效地理分布样点,利用Maxent模型和ArcGIS空间分析技术对当前气候条件下祁连圆柏在青海省的潜在地理分布进行模拟,综合Jackknife检验和相关系数,分析影响祁连圆柏潜在分布的主导限制因子,同时结合第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)的气候模式数据,预测祁连圆柏在3种(SSP126、SSP245、SSP585)气候变化情景下2061—2080年潜在适生区的变化。结果表明:Maxent模型受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)都大于0.92,具有较好的预测能力。在当前气候条件下,祁连圆柏的适宜分布区主要位于青海省东部,总适宜区面积占比为11.2%,影响其地理分布的主导因子是海拔、年均降水量、极端最低温和坡度,累计贡献率为85.9%。未来3种气候情景对祁连圆柏适宜区的影响存在差异,SSP245气候情景的适宜区面积将会缩减,SSP126和SSP585气候情景下则会不同程度地扩张,SSP126气候情景的扩张最明显,其扩张区域主要位于泽库县、河南蒙古族自治县中北部和祁连县东南部地区。在未来3种气候情景下,祁连圆柏适宜分布区逐渐向高海拔地区迁移,但在经纬度方向分布变化较小,适宜区总体稳定。     

A review on reproductive biotechnologies for conservation of endangered mammalian species

This review describes the use of modern reproductive biotechnologies or assisted reproductive techniques (ART) including artificial insemination, embryo transfer/sexing, in vitro fertilization, gamete/embryo micromanipulation, semen sexing, genome resource banking, and somatic cell nuclear transfer (cloning) in conservation programs for endangered mammalian species. Such biotechnologies allow more offspring to be obtained from selected parents to ensure genetic diversity and may reduce the interval between generations. However, the application of reproductive biotechnologies for endangered free-living mammals is rarer than for endangered domestic breeds. Progress in ART for non-domestic species will continue at a slow pace due to limited resources, but also because the management and conservation of endangered species is biologically quite complex. In practice, current reproductive biotechnologies are species-specific or inefficient for many endangered animals because of insufficient knowledge on basic reproduction like estrous cycle, seasonality, structural anatomy, gamete physiology and site for semen deposition or embryo transfer of non-domestic species.     

Sporophytic self-incompatibility in Senecio squalidus L (Asteraceae)--the search for S

Senecio squalidus (Oxford Ragwort) is being used as a model species to study the genetics and molecular genetics of self-incompatibility (SI) in the Asteraceae. S. squalidus has a strong system of sporophytic SI (SSI) and populations within the UK contain very few S alleles probably due to a population bottleneck experienced on its introduction to the UK. The genetic control of SSI in S. squalidus is complex and may involve a second locus epistatic to S. Progress towards identifying the female determinant of SSI in S. squalidus is reviewed here. Research is focused on plants carrying two defined S alleles, S(1) and S(2). S(2) is dominant to S(1) in pollen and stigma. RT-PCR was used to amplify three SRK-like cDNAs from stigmas of S(1)S(2) heterozygotes, but the expression patterns of these cDNAs suggest that they are unlikely to be directly involved in SI or pollen-stigma interactions in contrast to SSI in the Brassicaceae. Stigma-specific proteins associated with the S(1) allele and the S(2) allele have been identified using isoelectric focusing and these proteins have been designated SSP1 (Stigma S-associated Protein 1) and SSP2. SSP1 and SSP2 cDNAs have been cloned by 3' and 5' RACE and shown to be allelic forms of the same gene, SSP. The expression of SSP and its linkage to the S locus are currently being investigated. Initial results show SSP to be expressed exclusively in stigmas and developmentally regulated, with maximal expression occurring at and just before anthesis when SI is fully functional, SSP expression being undetectable in immature buds. Together these data suggest that SSP is a strong candidate for a Senecio S-gene.     

Extinction risk assessment for the species survival plan (SSP®) population of the Bali mynah (Leucopsar rothschildi)

The Bali mynah Species Survival Plan (SSP^®), an Association of Zoos and Aquariums program, strives to maintain the genetic and demographic health of its population, avoid unplanned changes in size, and minimize the risk of population extinction. The SSP population meets current demographic and genetic objectives with a population size of 209 birds at 61 institutions and 96% genetic diversity (GD) retained from the source population. However, participating institutions have expressed concerns regarding space allocation, target population size (TPS), breeding restrictions, inbreeding depression, and harvest in relation to future population availability and viability. Based on these factors, we assess five questions with a quantitative risk assessment, specifically a population viability analysis (PVA) using ZooRisk software. Using an individual-based stochastic model, we project potential population changes under different conditions (e.g. changes in TPS and genetic management) to identify the most effective management actions. Our projections indicate that under current management conditions, population decline and extinction are unlikely and that although GD will decline over 100 years the projected loss does not exceed levels acceptable to population managers (less than 90% GD retained). Model simulations indicate that the combination of two genetic management strategies (i.e. priority breeding based on mean kinship and inbreeding avoidance) benefits the retention of GD and reduces the accumulation of inbreeding. The current TPS (250) is greater than necessary to minimize the risk of extinction for the SSP population but any reduction in TPS must be accompanied by continued application of genetic management. If carefully planned, birds can be harvested for transfer to Bali for a reintroduction program without jeopardizing the SSP population. Zoo Biol 28:230–252, 2009. © 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

Arabidopsis SCP1-like small phosphatases differentially dephosphorylate RNA polymerase II C-terminal domain

RNA polymerase II carboxyl-terminal domain (pol II CTD) phosphatases that can dephosphorylate both Ser2-PO₄ and Ser5-PO₄ of CTD have been identified in animals and yeasts, however, only Ser5-PO₄-specific CTD phosphatases have been identified in plants. Among predicted Arabidopsis SCP1-like small phosphatases (SSP), SSP4, SSP4b, and SSP5 form a unique group with long N-terminal extensions. While SSPs’ expression showed similar tissue-specificities, SSP4 and SSP4b were localized exclusively in the nuclei, whereas SSP5 accumulated in both nuclei and cytoplasm. Detailed characterization of SSP activities using various peptides and full-length Arabidopsis pol II CTD substrates established that SSP4 and SSP4b could dephosphorylate both Ser2-PO₄ and Ser5-PO₄ of CTD, whereas SSP5 dephosphorylated only Ser5-PO₄. These results indicate that Arabidopsis SSP gene family encodes active CTD phosphatases like animal SCP1 family proteins, with distinct substrate specificities.     

Size of the local species pool determines invasibility of a C4-dominated grassland

The size of the local species pool (i.e., species surrounding a community capable of dispersal into that community) and other dispersal limitations strongly influence native plant community composition. However, the role that the local species pool plays in determining the invasibility of communities by exotic plants remains to be evaluated. We hypothesized that the richness and abundance of exotic species would be greater in C4‐dominated grassland communities if the local species pool included a larger proportion of exotic species. We also predicted that an increase in the exotic species pool would increase the invasibility of sites thought to be resistant to invasion (annually burned grassland). To test these hypotheses, study plots were established within two long‐term (>20 yr) fire experiments at a tallgrass prairie preserve in NE Kansas (USA). Study plots were surrounded by either a small pool of exotic species (small species pool (SSP) plots; six species) or a larger exotic species pool (large species pool (LSP) plots; 18 species). We found that richness and absolute cover of exotic species was significantly (P<0.001) lower (～70 and 90%, respectively) in annually burned compared to unburned plots, regardless of the size of the exotic species pool. As predicted, exotic species richness was higher (P<0.001) for LSP plots (3.9 per 250 m2) than for SSP plots (0.7 per 250 m2); however, absolute cover was unaffected by the size of the exotic species pool. In the absence of fire, plots with a LSP had four times as many exotic species than SSP plots. An increase in the local exotic species pool also increased the invasibility of annually burned grassland. Indeed, richness of exotic plant species in annually burned LSP plots did not differ from unburned plots with a SSP, indicating that a larger pool of exotic species countered the negative effects of fire. These findings have important implications for predicting how the invasion of plant communities may respond to human‐induced global changes, such as habitat fragmentation. Community characteristics or factors such as frequent fires in grasslands may impart resistance to invasions by exotic species in large, intact ecosystems. However, when a large pool of exotic species is present, frequent fire may not be sufficient to limit the invasions of exotic plants in fragmented landscapes.     

Future spatial distribution of Diaphorina citri in Mexico under climate change models

Climate change may modify environmental conditions creating suitable environments for phytopathogen vectors in places that were not suitable before. The present study aimed to contrast current and future spatial distribution of Diaphorina citri in Mexico under two climate change scenarios, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 4.5 and 8.5 for years 2050 and 2070. Non-correlated bioclimatic variables from eight General Circulation Models derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-6 and presence point data were used to generate distribution models with MaxEnt. Future projections showed that current suitable areas, equivalent to a 38.6% of coverage persist across all scenarios, new suitability areas appear, and no reduction is expected. All the models coincide on a potential increase in relation to the current national distribution of 11.1, 14.8, 13.8 and 25.5% for SSP2 4.5–50 SSP2 4.5–70 SSP5 8.5–50, and SSP5 8.5–70 respectively. Most of the new areas are not currently dedicated to citriculture; however, an increase in the risk of Huanglongbing is expected because most of the new areas are contiguous to the current presence areas, and cover urban zones where there may exist rutaceous hosts, from which the vector may spread the disease to the production zones.     

Will climate change favor exotic grasses over native ecosystem engineer species in the Amazon Basin?

Several anthropic disturbances, including deforestation, fires, the building of roads and dams, have intensified in Amazon in last decades. These disturbances contribute to an increase in the occurrence and intensity of extreme events, such as more frequent floods and more severe droughts, due to climate change. Along the Amazonian rivers, aquatic herbaceous plants, mainly of the Poaceae family, are very abundant and produce up to three times more biomass than the adjacent flooded forests, and some are considered ecosystem engineers given their structuring role in these environments. Invasive grasses have spread through the Neotropics and are gradually entering the Amazon via the Arc of Deforestation. These invasive species often attain high coverage, suppress other species, and become dominant in both disturbed and pristine habitats. The aim of this study was to establish the current and future distribution patterns of two native ecosystem engineer species (Echinochloa polystachya and Paspalum fasciculatum) and two invasive species (Urochloa brizantha and Urochloa decumbens) in the Amazon Basin. To predict the future climate, we used three scenarios, namely SSP1–2.6, SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5 for the years 2040, 2080 and 2100, to project climatically suitable areas. The current climatically suitable range for the native ecosystem engineer species was estimated at 33–35% of the Amazon Basin, while the invasive ones have a range of 53–84% in potential climatically suitable areas. A decrease in the areas of suitability of the two ecosystem engineer species, E. polystachya and P. fasciculatum, was observed in all scenarios and years, while only the invasive U. brizantha showed an increase in suitable areas in all years. These results raise concerns about the invasion of grasses with high aggressive potential that could result in the exclusion of native ecosystem engineer species and their ecological roles.