Survival Through Bottlenecks of Vole Cycles: Refuge or Chance Events?

In small rodent populations with wide-amplitude fluctuations and low-density bottlenecks, the individuals that survive through the bottlenecks may gain major fitness advantages as they will be the founders of the following population expansion. Most hypotheses assume that there exists a physical or behavioural refuge from increased predation risk, and that the survivors are most likely individuals adapted to use such refuges. A recent hypothesis suggests that survival probability is habitat-dependent so that some otherwise sub-optimal habitats provide a spatial refuge from predation risk by the main predator(s). We used spatially replicated long-term (1981–2004) trapping and tracking data of voles (field vole Microtus agrestis and sibling vole M. rossiaemeridionalis) and their main predators (weasel Mustela nivalis and stoat M. erminea) to test predictions based on this hypothesis. We did not find support for the hypothesis. We did not find marked phase-dependent differences in the habitat-level distribution of Microtus voles. Habitat types with low Microtus vole abundance had, on average, comparable predator activity than the main Microtus vole habitats, indicating that there were no habitat-level refuges from predators. There appeared to be no permanent site-level refuges: the spatial distribution of voles varied from one bottleneck to another. This suggests that survival through bottlenecks is at least partly determined by chance events. We propose that in this kind of systems, where relatively short-lived prey are hunted by nomadic or widely ranging predators, short-term anti-predator responses may increase survival prospects as efficiently as more costly anti-predator adaptations, and there is no apparent need to maintain special adaptations to bottleneck situations that occur at infrequent intervals.Co-ordinating editor: J. Tuomi     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Apodemus</Emphasis> mice as the main prey that determines reproductive output of tawny owl (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Strix aluco</Emphasis>) in Central Europe

During the years 2008–2014, we studied diet composition, the number of breeding pairs, and reproductive output of tawny owls in Central Europe (Czech Republic) in relation to availability of main prey in the field. We also performed a meta-analysis on diet composition of tawny owl in Europe that confirmed the important role of Apodemus mice in tawny owl diet in Central Europe. In concordance, Apodemus mice were the main prey of tawny owl in our study area (38.7%), and Microtus/Myodes voles (15.4%), birds (12.1%) and others (33.8%) were alternative prey. We found a positive relationship between the proportion of Apodemus mice in the diet and their abundance in the field (beta = 0.23, P = 0.001). Availability of main prey (Apodemus mice, Microtus/Myodes voles or Sorex shrews) in the field was not correlated with the number of breeding pairs. Proportion of birds in diet (expressed by scores from multivariate analysis), which was inversely related to proportion of Apodemus mice, was positively correlated with laying date (beta = 0.66, P = 0.012) and negatively correlated with clutch size (beta = − 0.45, P = 0.004) and brood size (beta = − 0.16, P = 0.076). We also found negative relationships between laying date and clutch size (beta = − 0.13, P = 0.014) and brood size (beta = − 0.07, P = 0.057). Our results support the idea that diet and breeding ecology of owls in Central Europe is mainly driven by the availability of Apodemus mice that are suitable prey due to their similar habitat requirements and nocturnal activity.     

Do Tengmalm’s Owls alter parental feeding effort under varying conditions of main prey availability?

We studied the diet composition and behavioural responses to variable food conditions in Tengmalm’s Owls (Aegolius funereus). The abundance of main prey (voles and mice) of owls was higher in the Ore Mountains, Czech Republic, than in the Kauhava region, Finland. We monitored nests continuously by a camera system to estimate the feeding frequency and to identify prey items provided to nestlings. We recorded 990 prey deliveries at six nests in the Ore Mountains and 1,679 prey deliveries at nine nests in the Kauhava region. Mice (Apodemus) and voles (Microtus and Clethrionomys) were the main foods of owls in the Ore Mountains, whereas voles (Clethrionomys and Microtus) and shrews (Sorex) were the main foods in the Kauhava region. In consequence, on average smaller prey items were brought to nestlings at the Finnish site. However, both absolute and relative (per one nestling) feeding frequency was higher in the Kauhava region, and the biomass available to individual nestlings did not differ between the two areas. Moreover, the Finnish and Czech pairs produced about the same number of fledglings. Our results suggest that male owls are able to maintain the amount of food required for chicks by switching to alternative prey, and to increase their prey delivery rates under conditions of reduced abundance of main food.     

Reproductive responses of temperate and boreal Tengmalm's Owl Aegolius funereus populations to spatial and temporal variation in prey availability

Environmental variation across space and time can strongly influence life‐history strategies in vertebrates. It has been shown that the reproductive success of birds of prey is closely related to food availability. However, relatively little is known about intraspecific differences in reproductive success of birds in relation to varying ecological conditions across environmental gradients. We investigated the reproductive performance of Tengmalm's Owls Aegolius funereus in a temperate (Czech Republic, 50°N) and a boreal (Finland, 63°N) population in relation to long‐term variations in the abundance of their main prey (small rodents). Prey densities at the northern site were much higher, but there were also large inter‐annual fluctuations and years with steep summer declines of vole densities. Northern owls laid larger clutches but offspring production per nest was similar at both study sites. This resulted from higher nestling mortality in the northern population, especially in nests established later in the season. Despite much greater nesting losses due to predation by Pine Martens Martes martes, productivity at the population level was about four times greater at the temperate site, mainly due to the much higher breeding densities compared with Finland. Tengmalm's Owls at the temperate study site may benefit from relatively stable prey abundance, a more diverse prey community that offers alternative prey during vole scarcity, longer nights in summer that allow more time for foraging, and a lower level of interspecific competition with other vole‐specialized predators.     

The role of Apodemus mice and Microtus voles in the diet of the Tengmalm’s owl in Central Europe

Based on a long-term dataset (1999–2010), we investigated how the availability of main prey affects the breeding density and food ecology of the Tengmalm’s owl (Aegolius funereus) in the Czech Republic. In particular, we assessed the role of Microtus voles and Apodemus mice in the diet, based on the main predictions of the optimal diet theory that the diet composition depends on the availability of the main prey. We found that (i) the Tengmalm’s owl exhibited no numerical response to the availability of Microtus voles and Apodemus mice in the field; (ii) the availability of Apodemus mice in the field positively affected their proportion in the diet (26 %), and despite a high proportion of Microtus voles in the owls’ diet (47 %), no relationship was found between their availability in the field and proportion in the diet; (iii) the proportion of Apodemus mice was negatively correlated to the proportion of Microtus voles, Sorex shrews and birds in the diet, but no similar relationship was detected for Microtus voles; (iv) the reproductive output of Tengmalm’s owls was positively correlated to the proportion of Apodemus mice in the diet, as well as to Apodemus mice and Microtus vole availability in the field; and (v) diet diversity and diet overlap were not significantly affected by the abundance of Apodemus mice and Microtus voles. Therefore, the validity of these main optimal diet theory predictions was not confirmed, especially for Microtus vole prey, due to an opportunistic choice between Apodemus mice and Microtus voles. We suggest that the reproductive output of nocturnal raptors in Central Europe may be less dependent on Microtus vole supply than that of their northern counterparts.     

Of mice and mallards: positive indirect effects of coexisting prey on waterfowl nest success

Coexisting prey species interact indirectly via their shared predators when one prey type influences predation rates of the second prey type. In a temperate system where the predominant shared predator is a generalist, I studied the indirect effects of rodent populations on waterfowl nest success, both within the nesting season among sites and among years. Among six to ten upland fields (14 to 27 ha), mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ) nest success was positively correlated with rodent abundance in all three years of the study. After removing year effects, mallard nest success remained positively correlated with the relative abundance of rodents. Of the rodent species present, California voles ( Microtus californicus ) were the most important coexisting prey type influencing nest success. Among years, mallard nest success was positively correlated with vole abundance; the asymptotic relationship suggests a threshold response to vole abundance, beyond which predators become satiated and additional voles do little to affect nest success. I tested and rejected three alternative explanations for the observed positive correlation between mallard nest success and rodent abundance that do not involve an indirect effect of coexisting prey populations. The influences of dense nesting cover, nesting density, and predator activity did not explain the observed patterns of nest success. These results suggest that rodent populations buffer predation on waterfowl nests, both within and among years, via the behavioral responses of shared predators to coexisting prey.     

Experimental evidence for edge-related predation in a fragmented agricultural landscape

Abstract This study tested the hypothesis that increased predation of experimental nests occurs close to a forest edge in a fragmented agricultural landscape. Artificial nests and eggs of willie wagtails Rhipidura leucophrys and superb fairy-wrens Malurus cyaneus were used in experiments to assess the extent and nature of predation occurring throughout the known breeding seasons of these species. Predators were identified by the imprints they left in plasticine eggs, and by remote photography. Surveys of avian predators were undertaken to investigate the relationship between predation intensity and predator distribution and abundance. Avian predators accounted for almost all predation for which a predator could be identified (96%). Five of seven predator species photographed attacking wagtail nests were corvids or artamids. Fairy-wren nests suffered relatively low rates of predation (29%) compared to wagtail nests (87%). Increased predation at the habitat edge was recorded for wagtail nests only; predation was correlated with the distribution and abundance of predatory avian species. The different extent and pattern of predation on fairy-wren nests could be explained by problems in detecting predation by mammals, and by possible failure of avian predators to locate the cryptic nests.     

Variation in the diet composition of a generalist predator, the red fox, in relation to season and density of main prey

Diet composition of a generalist predator, the red fox (Vulpes vulpes) in relation to season (winter or summer) and abundance of multi-annually cyclic voles was studied in western Finland from 1983 to 1995. The proportion of scats (PS; a total of 58 scats) including each food category was calculated for each prey group. Microtus voles (the field vole M. agrestis and the sibling vole M. rossiaemeridionalis) were the main prey group of foxes (PS = 0.55) and they frequently occurred in the scats both in the winter and summer (PSs 0.50 and 0.62, respectively). There was a positive correlation between the PSs of Microtus voles in the winter diet of foxes and the density indices of these voles in the previous autumn. Other microtine rodents (the bank vole Clethrionomys glareolus, the water vole Arvicola terrestris and the muskrat Ondatra zibethicus) were consumed more in winter than in summer. The unusually high small mustelid predation by red foxes (PS = approx. 0.10) in our study area gives qualitative support for the hypothesis on the limiting impact of mammalian predators on least weasel and stoat populations. None of the important prey groups was preyed upon more at low than at high densities of main prey (Microtus voles). This is consistent with the notion that red foxes are generalist predators that tend to opportunistically subsist on many prey groups. Among these prey groups, particularly hares and birds (including grouse), were frequently used as food by foxes.     

Impact of brood parasitism and predation on nest survival of the fan-tailed gerygone in New Caledonia

Predation and brood parasitism are common reasons for nesting failure in passerine species and the additive impact by invasive species is a major conservation concern, particularly on tropical islands. Recognising the relative contribution of the different components of nesting failure rates is important to understand co-evolutionary interactions within brood parasite–host systems. In the remote archipelago of New Caledonia, the fan-tailed gerygone Gerygone flavolateralis is the exclusive host of the brood-parasitic shining bronze-cuckoo Chalcites lucidus. Additionally, invasive rodents also possibly have an impact on breeding success. To estimate the impact of potential nest predators, we 1) video monitored nests to identify predators, 2) estimated the probability of predation based on nest visibility and predator abundance and 3) tested the possibility that the location of experimental nests and lack of odour cues decrease the predation by rodents. In addition, we estimated nest survival rates using data collected in different habitats over the course of eight breeding seasons. Nesting success of fan-tailed gerygones was relatively low and predation was the main cause of nesting failure. We recorded mainly predation by native birds, including the shining bronze-cuckoo, whereas predation by rats was rare. In open habitats predation by cuckoos was much lower than predation by other avian predators. Neither predator activity around nests nor nest visibility influenced the probability of predation. Experimental nests in more accessible locations and containing an odorous bait were more exposed to rodent predation. Apparently, the fan-tailed gerygone has either never been specifically vulnerable to predation by rats or has developed anti-predator adaptations.     

Nest height, nest concealment, and predator type predict nest predation in superb fairy-wrens (Malurus?cyaneus)

Three factors and their interaction effects are increasingly recognized as important determinants of nest predation: nest concealment, nest height, and predator type. The risk of nest predation is predicted to vary across these variables because of nest detectability and accessibility. In general, however, few studies examine how these three variables interact in relation to nest predation, focusing instead on either nest concealment or nest height (whereby predator identity is usually not known). In this study, we examine the role of nest concealment and nest height for nest survival using both artificial and natural nests in the superb fairy-wren (Malurus cyaneus). We indirectly identified potential predators through marks left on artificial eggs and footprints left on tracking tunnels. Predation level at artificial nests was lower than at natural nests, and this could be due to a failure of some nest predators to locate cryptic nests in the absence of cues provided by parental activity. Our results supported the prediction that exposed and concealed nests have different levels of nest predation, which can be explained by variation in predator type. Visual predators were only detected at exposed nests, and survival from visual predators was lower for high nests that were also exposed. However, olfactory predators were detected irrespective of nest height or nest concealment. Because rodents use olfaction to locate nests, this could explain the lack of association between nest concealment and predation outcome at low nests. In addition, rodent footmarks near nests were significantly associated with rodent tooth marks on eggs.     

Functional responses of the rough-legged buzzard in a multi-prey system

The functional response is a key element of predator–prey interactions. Basic functional response theory explains foraging behavior of individual predators, but many empirical studies of free-ranging predators have estimated functional responses by using population-averaged data. We used a novel approach to investigate functional responses of an avian predator (the rough legged-buzzard Buteo lagopus Pontoppidan, 1763) to intra-annual spatial variation in rodent density in subarctic Sweden, using breeding pairs as the sampling unit. The rough-legged buzzards responded functionally to Norwegian lemmings (Lemmus lemmus L. 1758), grey-sided voles (Myodes rufocanus Sundevall, 1846) and field voles (Microtus agrestis L. 1761), but different rodent prey were not utilised according to relative abundance. The functional response to Norwegian lemmings was a steep type II curve and a more shallow type III response to grey-sided voles. The different shapes of these two functional responses were likely due to combined effects of differences between lemmings and grey-sided voles in habitat utilisation, anti-predator behaviour and size-dependent vulnerability to predation. Diet composition changed less than changes in relative prey abundance, indicating negative switching, with high disproportional use of especially lemmings at low relative densities. Our results suggest that lemmings and voles should be treated separately in future empirical and theoretical studies in order to better understand the role of predation in this study system.     

Predation on two vole species by a shared predator: antipredatory response and prey preference

In prey communities with shared predators, variation in prey vulnerability is a key factor in shaping community dynamics. Conversely, the hunting efficiency of a predator depends on the prey community structure, preferences of the predator and antipredatory behavioural traits of the prey. We studied experimentally, under seminatural field conditions, the preferences of a predator and the antipredatory responses of prey in a system consisting of two Myodes species of voles, the grey-sided vole (M. rufocanus Sund.) and the bank vole (M. glareolus Schreb.), and their specialist predator, the least weasel (Mustela nivalis nivalis L.). To quantify the preference of the weasels, we developed a new modelling framework that can be used for unbalanced data. The two vole species were hypothesised to have different habitat-dependent vulnerabilities. We created two habitats, open and forest, to provide different escape possibilities for the voles. We found a weak general preference of the weasels for the grey-sided voles over the bank voles, and a somewhat stronger preference specifically in open habitats. The weasels clearly preferred male grey-sided voles over females, whereas in bank voles, there was no difference. The activity of voles changed over time, so that voles increased their movements immediately after weasel introduction, but later adjusted their movements to times of lowered predation risk. Females that were more active had an elevated mortality risk, whereas in the case of males, the result was the opposite. We conclude that, in vulnerability to predation, the species- or habitat-specific characteristics of these prey species are playing a minor role compared to sex-specific characteristics.     

Colonial breeding and nest predation in the Jackdaw Corvus monedula using old Black Woodpecker Dryocopus martius holes

Jackdaws Corvus monedula breeding in old holes of the Black Woodpecker Dryocopus martius were studied during 6 years in central Sweden. Of 131 breeding attempts, only 56% were successful. Nest predation caused 74% of the breeding failures. The most common predator was probably the Pine Marten Mattes mattes , as fresh hair was found in 42% of the nests whose contents had been predated. Predation risk of nest contents was not related to the height above ground, but it was significantly reduced with increasing colony size. Since Jackdaws are known to communally defend their nests, a likely explanation is that the Jackdaw benefits from group defence against predators. During the study, the number of breeding Jackdaw pairs in Black Woodpecker holes declined, probably linked with a recent increase in the numbers of Pine Martens in the area.     

Vulnerability of black grouse hens to goshawk predation: result of food supply or predation facilitation?

The plant cycle hypothesis says that poor-quality food affects both herbivorous voles (Microtinae spp.) and grouse (Tetraonidae spp.) in vole decline years, leading to increased foraging effort in female grouse and thus a higher risk of predation by the goshawk Accipiter gentilis. Poor-quality food (mainly the bilberry Vaccinium myrtillus) for these herbivores is induced by seed masting failure in the previous year, when the bilberry is able to allocate resources for chemical defence (the mast depression hypothesis; MDH). The predation facilitation hypothesis (PFH) in turn states that increased searching activity of vole-eating predators during or after the decline year of voles disturbs incubating and brooding grouse females. The behaviours used by grouse to avoid these terrestrial predators make them more vulnerable to predation by goshawks. We tested the main predictions of the MDH and PFH by collecting long-term (21-year) data from black grouse Tetrao tetrix hens and cocks killed by breeding goshawks supplemented with indices of bilberry crop, vole abundance and small carnivores in the vicinity of Oulu, northern Finland. We did not find obvious support for the prediction of the MDH that there is a negative correlation of bilberry crop in year t with vole abundance and with predation index of black grouse hens in year t + 1. We did find obvious support for the prediction of the PFH that there is a positive correlation between predator abundance and predation index of grouse hens, because the stoat Mustela erminea abundance index was positively related to the predation index of black grouse hens. We suggest that changes in vulnerability of grouse hens may mainly be caused by the guild of vole-eating predators, who shift to alternative prey in the decline phase of the vole cycle, and thus chase grouse hens and chicks to the talons of goshawks and other avian predators.     

Do seasonal patterns of rat snake (Pantherophis obsoletus) and black racer (Coluber constrictor) activity predict avian nest predation?

Avian nest success often varies seasonally and because predation is the primary cause of nest failure, seasonal variation in predator activity has been hypothesized to explain seasonal variation in nest success. Despite the fact that nest predator communities are often diverse, recent evidence from studies of snakes that are nest predators has lent some support to the link between snake activity and nest predation. However, the strength of the relationship has varied among studies. Explaining this variation is difficult, because none of these studies directly identified nest predators, the link between predator activity and nest survival was inferred. To address this knowledge gap, we examined seasonal variation in daily survival rates of 463 bird nests (of 17 bird species) and used cameras to document predator identity at 137 nests. We simultaneously quantified seasonal activity patterns of two local snake species (N = 30 individuals) using manual (2136 snake locations) and automated (89,165 movements detected) radiotelemetry. Rat snakes (Pantherophis obsoletus), the dominant snake predator at the site (~28% of observed nest predations), were most active in late May and early June, a pattern reported elsewhere for this species. When analyzing all monitored nests, we found no link between nest predation and seasonal activity of rat snakes. When analyzing only nests with known predator identities (filmed nests), however, we found that rat snakes were more likely to prey on nests during periods when they were moving the greatest distances. Similarly, analyses of all monitored nests indicated that nest survival was not linked to racer activity patterns, but racer‐specific predation (N = 17 nests) of filmed nests was higher when racers were moving the greatest distances. Our results suggest that the activity of predators may be associated with higher predation rates by those predators, but that those effects can be difficult to detect when nest predator communities are diverse and predator identities are not known. Additionally, our results suggest that hand‐tracking of snakes provides a reliable indicator of predator activity that may be more indicative of foraging behavior than movement frequency provided by automated telemetry systems.     

Effect of felling on red fox (Vulpes vulpes) and pine marten (Martes martes) diets in transitional mixed forest in Belarus

In transitional mixed forests in northern and central Belarus the influence of intensified felling on the diets of red foxes Vulpes vulpes L. and pine martens Martes martes L. was investigated in two model forested terrains with sandy and clay top-grounds. A total of 1904 scats of red foxes and 1624 scats of pine martens were analysed over two periods differed by logging rate. When logging rate was conservative, red fox and pine marten diets were found to be similar, but under heavy logging feeding of the predator species shifted. In both model woodlands we found the same pronounced dietary trend of higher consumption of rodents, first of all, Microtus voles. The dietary changes were well related to the registered increase in Microtus vole numbers and total number of rodents in felling areas. The increased preying on rodents caused lower consumption of other food items, particularly medium-sized mammals (year-round) or/and birds or/and fruits (in the warm season) or/and mammalian carrion (in the cold season). In the conditions of intensified felling the food niches of the red fox and pine marten diverged mostly because of the great difference in the species structure of rodents consumed. Red foxes turned to preying on Microtus voles more frequently, but less on bank voles Myodes glareolus; while pine martens increased their taking of Microtus voles, continued foraging for bank voles and began taking slightly more of Apodemus mice. Before heavy logging dietary similarity between the red fox and pine marten was high and did not vary considerably through seasons and study areas, whereas after felling was intensified their diet overlap became lower.     

Predators of Spotted Flycatcher Muscicapa striata nests in southern England as determined by digital nest-cameras

Capsule Avian predators are principally responsible.

Aims To document the fate of Spotted Flycatcher nests and to identify the species responsible for nest predation.

Methods During 2005–06, purpose-built, remote, digital nest-cameras were deployed at 65 out of 141 Spotted Flycatcher nests monitored in two study areas, one in south Devon and the second on the border of Bedfordshire and Cambridgeshire.

Results Of the 141 nests monitored, 90 were successful (non-camera nests, 49 out of 76 successful, camera nests, 41 out of 65). Fate was determined for 63 of the 65 nests monitored by camera, with 20 predation events documented, all of which occurred during daylight hours. Avian predators carried out 17 of the 20 predations, with the principal nest predator identified as Eurasian Jay Garrulus glandarius. The only mammal recorded predating nests was the Domestic Cat Felis catus, the study therefore providing no evidence that Grey Squirrels Sciurus carolinensis are an important predator of Spotted Flycatcher nests. There was no evidence of differences in nest survival rates at nests with and without cameras. Nest remains following predation events gave little clue as to the identity of the predator species responsible.

Conclusions Nest-cameras can be useful tools in the identification of nest predators, and may be deployed with no subsequent effect on nest survival. The majority of predation of Spotted Flycatcher nests in this study was by avian predators, principally the Jay. There was little evidence of predation by mammalian predators. Identification of specific nest predators enhances studies of breeding productivity and predation risk.     

Power lines,roads, and avian nest survival: effects on predator identity and predation intensity

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Vole fluctuations,red fox responses,predation on fawns,and roe deer dynamics in a temperate latitude

The alternative prey hypothesis predicts that predators respond both functionally and numerically (with a time lag) to fluctuations in the main prey abundance, which affects the survival of alternative prey. This pattern was found in northern Europe in the community formed by voles (Microtidae), red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) and roe deer (Capreolus capreolus). We studied the same predator—prey community in a temperate latitude where, according to the predation hypothesis, only the functional response of predators to changes in main prey availability should occur. In the years 1997–2007, in western Poland, we estimated the index of common vole (Microtus arvalis) abundance (burrow counts), the density of foxes (spotlight counts), the young production in foxes (young/adult ratio), the index of fox predation on fawns (prey remains near dens) as well as the reproduction index (fawn/female ratio) and density of roe deer (total counts). The vole abundance fluctuated considerably, the young production in foxes did not correlate with the main prey availability, but the density of foxes showed direct numerical response. The index of fox predation on fawns decreased with the vole abundance and negatively affected the fawn/female ratio in roe deer. Thus, the relationships between voles and foxes were not fully consistent with the predation hypothesis. The direct numerical response of foxes should tend to stabilize this predator—prey community. It is suggested, however, that responses showed by vole-eating predators in temperate latitudes may sometimes affect their alternative prey, including animals with unfavourable conservation status.     

Mortality of Wood Warbler Phylloscopus sibilatrix nests in Welsh Oakwoods: predation rates and the identification of nest predators using miniature nest cameras

Capsule Predation was the main cause of nest failure, but predation rates have remained unchanged since the 1980s. Eurasian Jays Garrullus glandarius were the most common predator.

Aims To quantify, and compare, nest predation rates for 1982–84 and 2009–11, and to identify predators of Wood Warbler Phylloscopus sibilatrix nests in Welsh oakwoods.

Methods During 2009–11, 167 Wood Warbler nests were monitored and purpose-built miniature nest cameras deployed at 73 of them. Nest predation rates were compared with 67 nests monitored during 1982–84.

Results Of 167 nests monitored from 2009 to 2011, 62 failed due to predation (32/73 camera nests, 30/94 non-camera nests), giving an overall Daily Survival Rate (DSR?±?se) of 0.979?±?0.003. This was not significantly different from the rate during 1982–84 (0.967?±?0.006). In 2009–11, the DSR of nests declined temporally during the season at both the egg and chick stages. For chick stage nests, DSR varied annually and nonlinearly with age of nestlings. There was no evidence for an effect of cameras at either stage. Of 32 camera nests lost to predation, the predator was identified from 28, resulting in 30 predators being identified. There was one case of multiple predators at a single nest. The majority of nest predation was carried out by birds (28/30), predominantly Eurasian Jays (18/28), but also Common Buzzards Buteo buteo (5/28), Great Spotted Woodpeckers Dendrocopos major (3/28) and Eurasian Sparrowhawks Accipiter nisus (2/28). There was one predation by both a Eurasian Badger Meles meles and a Red Fox Vulpes vulpes. There were no records of Grey Squirrels Sciurus carolinensis depredating nests.

Conclusions Nest predation rates were similar in both periods, suggesting that increased rates of nest predation have not been driving the decline of the Wood Warbler population in Wales. Deployment of nest cameras did not affect nest survival rates and were successful in identifying nest predators, the majority of which were avian, especially Eurasian Jays. Knowledge of the identity of nest predators can aid the development of conservation measures.