Multiple diagnostic techniques identify previously vaccinated individuals with protective immunity against monkeypox

Approximately 50% of the US population received smallpox vaccinations before routine immunization ceased in 1972 for civilians and in 1990 for military personnel. Several studies have shown long-term immunity after smallpox vaccination, but skepticism remains as to whether this will translate into full protection against the onset of orthopoxvirus-induced disease. The US monkeypox outbreak of 2003 provided the opportunity to examine this issue. Using independent and internally validated diagnostic approaches with >or=95% sensitivity and >or=90% specificity for detecting clinical monkeypox infection, we identified three previously unreported cases of monkeypox in preimmune individuals at 13, 29 and 48 years after smallpox vaccination. These individuals were unaware that they had been infected because they were spared any recognizable disease symptoms. Together, this shows that the US monkeypox outbreak was larger than previously realized and, more importantly, shows that cross-protective antiviral immunity against West African monkeypox can potentially be maintained for decades after smallpox vaccination.     

Effects of behavioral changes in a smallpox attack model

The impact of individual and community behavioral changes in response to an outbreak of a disease with high mortality is often not appreciated. Response strategies to a smallpox bioterrorist attack have focused on interventions such as isolation of infectives, contact tracing, quarantine of contacts, ring vaccination, and mass vaccination. We formulate and analyze a mathematical model in which some individuals lower their daily contact activity rates once an epidemic has been identified in a community. Transmission parameters are estimated from data and an expression is derived for the effective reproduction number. We use computer simulations to analyze the effects of behavior change alone and in combination with other control measures. We demonstrate that the spread of the disease is highly sensitive to how rapidly people reduce their contact activity rates and to the precautions that the population takes to reduce the transmission of the disease. Even gradual and mild behavioral changes can have a dramatic impact in slowing an epidemic. When behavioral changes are combined with other interventions, the epidemic is shortened and the number of smallpox cases is reduced. We conclude that for simulations of a smallpox outbreak to be useful, they must consider the impact of behavioral changes. This is especially true if the model predictions are being used to guide public health policy.     

Inactivation of poxviruses by upper-room UVC light in a simulated hospital room environment

In the event of a smallpox outbreak due to bioterrorism, delays in vaccination programs may lead to significant secondary transmission. In the early phases of such an outbreak, transmission of smallpox will take place especially in locations where infected persons may congregate, such as hospital emergency rooms. Air disinfection using upper-room 254 nm (UVC) light can lower the airborne concentrations of infective viruses in the lower part of the room, and thereby control the spread of airborne infections among room occupants without exposing occupants to a significant amount of UVC. Using vaccinia virus aerosols as a surrogate for smallpox we report on the effectiveness of air disinfection, via upper-room UVC light, under simulated real world conditions including the effects of convection, mechanical mixing, temperature and relative humidity. In decay experiments, upper-room UVC fixtures used with mixing by a conventional ceiling fan produced decreases in airborne virus concentrations that would require additional ventilation of more than 87 air changes per hour. Under steady state conditions the effective air changes per hour associated with upper-room UVC ranged from 18 to 1000. The surprisingly high end of the observed range resulted from the extreme susceptibility of vaccinia virus to UVC at low relative humidity and use of 4 UVC fixtures in a small room with efficient air mixing. Increasing the number of UVC fixtures or mechanical ventilation rates resulted in greater fractional reduction in virus aerosol and UVC effectiveness was higher in winter compared to summer for each scenario tested. These data demonstrate that upper-room UVC has the potential to greatly reduce exposure to susceptible viral aerosols. The greater survival at baseline and greater UVC susceptibility of vaccinia under winter conditions suggest that while risk from an aerosol attack with smallpox would be greatest in winter, protective measures using UVC may also be most efficient at this time. These data may also be relevant to influenza, which also has improved aerosol survival at low RH and somewhat similar sensitivity to UVC.     

Smallpox DNA vaccine protects nonhuman primates against lethal monkeypox

Two decades after a worldwide vaccination campaign was used to successfully eradicate naturally occurring smallpox, the threat of bioterrorism has led to renewed vaccination programs. In addition, sporadic outbreaks of human monkeypox in Africa and a recent outbreak of human monkeypox in the U.S. have made it clear that naturally occurring zoonotic orthopoxvirus diseases remain a public health concern. Much of the threat posed by orthopoxviruses could be eliminated by vaccination; however, because the smallpox vaccine is a live orthopoxvirus vaccine (vaccinia virus) administered to the skin, the vaccine itself can pose a serious health risk. Here, we demonstrate that rhesus macaques vaccinated with a DNA vaccine consisting of four vaccinia virus genes (L1R, A27L, A33R, and B5R) were protected from severe disease after an otherwise lethal challenge with monkeypox virus. Animals vaccinated with a single gene (L1R) which encodes a target of neutralizing antibodies developed severe disease but survived. This is the first demonstration that a subunit vaccine approach to smallpox-monkeypox immunization is feasible.     

Accuracy and repeatability of a micro plaque reduction neutralization test for vaccinia antibodies.

The detection of neutralizing antibodies against vaccinia virus is a valuable tool for the investigation of previous smallpox vaccination. Compulsory smallpox vaccination ended in Brazil during the early 1970s, although the vaccine was available until the late 1970s. The threat of smallpox as a biological weapon has called the attention of public health authorities to the need for an evaluation of the immune status of the population. Based on our previous experience with a micro plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT) for the evaluation of yellow fever immunity, a similar test was developed for the detection and quantification of vaccinia neutralizing antibodies. A cross-sectional study to test the repeatability and validity of plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT) for vaccinia antibodies was performed in 182 subjects divided into two categories: subjects above 31 years old and the other > or = 35 years old. Cases were subjects considered to have been vaccinated with vaccinia virus if they declared vaccination history or evidenced vaccination marks. The assay is carried out in 96-well plates, provides results within 30 h, is easily performed, has good sensitivity (92.7%) and specificity (90.8), excellent repeatability (ICC 0.89 (0.88; 0.92)) and is thus suitable for use in mass screening of a population's antibody levels.     

Duration of antiviral immunity after smallpox vaccination

Although naturally occurring smallpox was eliminated through the efforts of the World Health Organization Global Eradication Program, it remains possible that smallpox could be intentionally released. Here we examine the magnitude and duration of antiviral immunity induced by one or more smallpox vaccinations. We found that more than 90% of volunteers vaccinated 25-75 years ago still maintain substantial humoral or cellular immunity (or both) against vaccinia, the virus used to vaccinate against smallpox. Antiviral antibody responses remained stable between 1-75 years after vaccination, whereas antiviral T-cell responses declined slowly, with a half-life of 8-15 years. If these levels of immunity are considered to be at least partially protective, then the morbidity and mortality associated with an intentional smallpox outbreak would be substantially reduced because of pre-existing immunity in a large number of previously vaccinated individuals.     

An integral equation model for the control of a smallpox outbreak

An integral equation model of a smallpox epidemic is proposed. The model structures the incidence of infection among the household, the workplace, the wider community and a health-care facility; and incorporates a finite incubation period and plausible infectivity functions. Linearisation of the model is appropriate for small epidemics, and enables analytic expressions to be derived for the basic reproduction number and the size of the epidemic. The effects of control interventions (vaccination, isolation, quarantine and public education) are explored for a smallpox epidemic following an imported case. It is found that the rapid identification and isolation of cases, the quarantine of affected households and a public education campaign to reduce contact would be capable of bringing an epidemic under control. This could be used in conjunction with the vaccination of healthcare workers and contacts. Our results suggest that prior mass vaccination would be an inefficient method of containing an outbreak.     

Problem of bioterrorism under modern conditions

It is practically impossible to discuss the problem of bioterrorism (BT) and to develop effective programs of decreasing the losses and expenses suffered by the society from the BT acts without evaluation of the threat and prognosis of consequences based on research and empiric data. Stained international situation following the act of terrorism (attack on the USA) on September 11, 2001, makes the scenarios of the bacterial weapon use (the causative agents of plague, smallpox, anthrax, etc.) by international terrorists most probable. In this connection studies on the analysis and prognostication of the consequences of BT, including mathematical and computer modelling, are necessary. The authors present the results of initiative studies on the analysis and prognostication of the consequences of the hypothetical act of BT with the use of the smallpox causative agent in a city with the population of about 1,000,000 inhabitants. The analytical prognostic studies on the operative analysis and prognostication of the consequences of the BT act with the use of the smallpox causative agent has demonstrated that the mathematical (computer) model of the epidemic outbreak of smallpox is an effective instrument of calculation studies. Prognostic evaluations of the consequences of the act of BT under the conditions of different reaction of public health services (time of detection, interventions) have been obtained with the use of modelling. In addition, the computer model is necessary for training health specialists to react adequately to the acts of BT with the use of different kinds of bacteriological weapons.     

Design and development of oral drugs for the prophylaxis and treatment of smallpox infection

Smallpox was eradicated by the World Health Organization (WHO) vaccination campaign in the 1970s and the variola virus was restricted to repositories in the United States and Russia. Recently, however, concerns have arisen about the possible existence of variola outside these sites and the potential for using the virus as a weapon of bioterror. The world population now has little residual immunity to smallpox and supplies of the smallpox vaccine are being reconstituted. Large numbers of individuals with various skin diseases or immunosuppression owing to AIDS or organ transplantation medications, or who are pregnant or have heart disease might not be ideal candidates for vaccination with the current live vaccines. It would be useful to have an orally active drug that could be self-administered in case of an outbreak of smallpox.     

Antiviral immunity following smallpox virus infection: a case-control study

Outbreaks of smallpox (i.e., caused by variola virus) resulted in up to 30% mortality, but those who survived smallpox infection were regarded as immune for life. Early studies described the levels of neutralizing antibodies induced after infection, but smallpox was eradicated before contemporary methods for quantifying T-cell memory were developed. To better understand the levels and duration of immunity after smallpox infection, we performed a case-control study comparing antiviral CD4(+) and CD8(+) T-cell responses and neutralizing antibody levels of 24 smallpox survivors with the antiviral immunity observed in 60 smallpox-vaccinated (i.e., vaccinia virus-immune) control subjects. We found that the duration of immunity following smallpox infection was remarkably similar to that observed after smallpox vaccination, with antiviral T-cell responses that declined slowly over time and antiviral antibody responses that remained stable for decades after recovery from infection. These results indicate that severe, potentially life-threatening disease is not required for the development of sustainable long-term immunity. This study shows that the levels of immunity induced following smallpox vaccination are comparable in magnitude to that achieved through natural variola virus infection, and this may explain the notable success of vaccination in eradicating smallpox, one of the world's most lethal diseases.     

Control of a highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza outbreak in the GB poultry flock

The identification of H5N1 in domestic poultry in Europe has increased the risk of infection reaching most industrialized poultry populations. Here, using detailed data on the poultry population in Great Britain (GB), we show that currently planned interventions based on movement restrictions can be expected to control the majority of outbreaks. The probability that controls fail to keep an outbreak small only rises to significant levels if most transmission occurs via mechanisms which are both untraceable and largely independent of the local density of premises. We show that a predictor of the need to intensify control efforts in GB is whether an outbreak exceeds 20 infected premises. In such a scenario neither localized reactive vaccination nor localized culling are likely to have a substantial impact. The most effective of these contingent interventions are large radius (10 km) localized culling and national vaccination. However, the modest impact of these approaches must be balanced against their substantial inconvenience and cost.     

The Future of Smallpox Vaccination: is MVA the key?

Eradication of the smallpox virus through extensive global vaccination efforts has resulted in one of the most important breakthroughs in medical history, saving countless lives from the severe morbidity and mortality that is associated with this disease. Although smallpox is now extinct in nature, laboratory stocks of this virus still remain and the subject of smallpox vaccination has gained renewed attention due to the potential risk that smallpox may be used as a biological weapon by terrorists or rogue states. Despite having the longest history of any modern vaccine, there is still much to be learned about smallpox vaccination and the correlates of protection remain to be formally defined. This Commentary will discuss the strengths and weaknesses of traditional smallpox vaccination in comparison with immunization using modified vaccinia virus Ankura (MVA), a non-replicating virus with a strong safety record but weakened immunogenicity.     

The smallpox vaccine: a multidimensional model of choice

Following September 11, 2001, the U.S. government increased its efforts to prepare for future attacks, including those using dangerous biological agents such as smallpox. The smallpox vaccination program called for vaccinating military personnel and smallpox response teams, including healthcare workers and other first responders. The program of vaccinating healthcare workers was largely unsuccessful; few individuals volunteered to be vaccinated, highlighting the importance of understanding the factors that influence choice regarding this complex medical decision. This study examined stated choice and how it was associated with risk perceptions, knowledge, psychological distress, and general vaccine beliefs using a five-dimensional choice model. The model used multivariable modeling strategies in a sample of 256 undergraduate, graduate, and medical students. Sixty-three percent of the sample stated that they would elect to receive the smallpox vaccination. Multiple factors were related to stated choice in multivariable models, including perceived risk/worry, general vaccine beliefs, decisional conflict, and gender. However, the models were more successful at predicting acceptance of the vaccination than vaccine refusal. Although support was obtained for a multidimensional model of choice, several questions were raised by our results, including (a) whether refusal of smallpox vaccination can be more effectively characterized, possibly with additional questions; (b) whether the model translates to actual vaccination behavior; and (c) whether the model describes choice in more at-risk samples (e.g., first responders, healthcare workers). A multidimensional modeling approach should facilitate these and other studies of choice.     

Analyzing bioterror response logistics: the case of smallpox

To evaluate existing and alternative proposals for emergency response to a deliberate smallpox attack, we embed the key operational features of such interventions into a smallpox disease transmission model. We use probabilistic reasoning within an otherwise deterministic epidemic framework to model the 'race to trace', i.e., attempting to trace (via the infector) and vaccinate an infected person while (s)he is still vaccine-sensitive. Our model explicitly incorporates a tracing/vaccination queue, and hence can be used as a capacity planning tool. An approximate analysis of this large (16 ODE) system yields closed-form estimates for the total number of deaths and the maximum queue length. The former estimate delineates the efficacy (i.e., accuracy) and efficiency (i.e., speed) of contact tracing, while the latter estimate reveals how congestion makes the race to trace more difficult to win, thereby causing more deaths. A probabilistic analysis is also used to find an approximate closed-form expression for the total number of deaths under mass vaccination, in terms of both the basic reproductive ratio and the vaccination capacity. We also derive approximate thresholds for initially controlling the epidemic for more general interventions that include imperfect vaccination and quarantine.     

Smallpox Control in Canada

During the period 1961 to 1963 there were 10 separate importations of smallpox cases by aircraft into England and Wales, Germany, Sweden, Poland and Canada. A feature of the resulting outbreaks was the number of cases and deaths of physicians and other health personnel. With the increasing volume of international air traffic there is a risk of importing incubating cases of smallpox into Canada, as occurred in 1962. Millions of Canadians have been protected against smallpox. Some complications of smallpox vaccination have occurred in Canada; such complications can be minimized by proper attention to contraindications to vaccination. The Food and Drug Directorate, Department of National Health and Welfare, has circularized all physicians in Canada to request their co-operation in reporting adverse reactions to drugs. This includes serious, unusual or unsuspected reactions to immunizing agents (vaccines, toxoids and antitoxins). The latter information will be shared with the Epidemiology Division, Department of National Health and Welfare, and the provincial epidemiologist and manufacturer concerned. The importance of maintaining the smallpox immunity of physicians, nurses and other hospital and health personnel in Canada is emphasized.     

Critical Role of Perforin-dependent CD8+ T Cell Immunity for Rapid Protective Vaccination in a Murine Model for Human Smallpox

Vaccination is highly effective in preventing various infectious diseases, whereas the constant threat of new emerging pathogens necessitates the development of innovative vaccination principles that also confer rapid protection in a case of emergency. Although increasing evidence points to T cell immunity playing a critical role in vaccination against viral diseases, vaccine efficacy is mostly associated with the induction of antibody responses. Here we analyze the immunological mechanism(s) of rapidly protective vaccinia virus immunization using mousepox as surrogate model for human smallpox. We found that fast protection against lethal systemic poxvirus disease solely depended on CD4 and CD8 T cell responses induced by vaccination with highly attenuated modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) or conventional vaccinia virus. Of note, CD4 T cells were critically required to allow for MVA induced CD8 T cell expansion and perforin-mediated cytotoxicity was a key mechanism of MVA induced protection. In contrast, selected components of the innate immune system and B cell-mediated responses were fully dispensable for prevention of fatal disease by immunization given two days before challenge. In conclusion, our data clearly demonstrate that perforin-dependent CD8 T cell immunity plays a key role in MVA conferred short term protection against lethal mousepox. Rapid induction of T cell immunity might serve as a new paradigm for treatments that need to fit into a scenario of protective emergency vaccination.     

An attenuated LC16m8 smallpox vaccine: analysis of full-genome sequence and induction of immune protection

The potential threat of smallpox bioterrorism has made urgent the development of lower-virulence vaccinia virus vaccines. An attenuated LC16m8 (m8) vaccine was developed in 1975 from the Lister strain used in the World Health Organization smallpox eradication program but was not used against endemic smallpox. Today, no vaccines can be tested with variola virus for efficacy in humans, and the mechanisms of immune protection against the major intracellular mature virion (IMV) and minor extracellular enveloped virion (EEV) populations of poxviruses are poorly understood. Here, we determined the full-genome sequences of the m8, parental LC16mO (mO), and grandparental Lister (LO) strains and analyzed their evolutionary relationships. Sequence data and PCR analysis indicated that m8 was a progeny of LO and that m8 preserved almost all of the open reading frames of vaccinia virus except for the disrupted EEV envelope gene B5R. In accordance with this genomic background, m8 induced 100% protection against a highly pathogenic vaccinia WR virus in mice by a single vaccination, despite the lack of anti-B5R and anti-EEV antibodies. The immunogenicity and priming efficacy with the m8 vaccine consisting mainly of IMV were as high as those with the intact-EEV parental mO and grandparental LO vaccines. Thus, mice vaccinated with 10(7) PFU of m8 produced low levels of anti-B5R antibodies after WR challenge, probably because of quick clearance of B5R-expressing WR EEV by strong immunity induced by the vaccination. These results suggest that priming with m8 IMV provides efficient protection despite undetectable levels of immunity against EEV.     

Smallpox: A Retrospect

Smallpox has been known as a disease of man since the earliest times. However, its severity increased greatly during the eighteenth century, stimulating physicians and others to find methods of protection against it. Variolation (the inoculation of smallpox material into the skin) was tried, and for a while found general approval, although its practice was not without danger. In 1796, Edward Jenner began his investigations into the use of cow-pox material (vaccination) as a prophylactic against smallpox, and later showed that vaccination could confer protection. Although vaccination centres were first set up in Canada early in the nineteenth century, the disease on occasion assumed epidemic proportions, such as occurred in Montreal in 1885. Sporadic outbreaks have occurred since then, including the recent case in Toronto. From the public health point of view, maintenance of a high level of immunity to smallpox throughout the general population is necessary if serious epidemics are to be avoided.     

The threat of smallpox

Smallpox is a highly contagious disease mainly transmitted by aerosols with a high case-fatality. The smallpox virus has evolved from a long adaptation to humans during Evolution, explaining that the virus is highly specific for humans and nonpathogenic for animals. Smallpox was eradicated in 1977 and vaccination was abandoned in the 1980's. This virus is a dreadful potential biological weapon since the reemergence of smallpox on the planet might be expected to be devastating, due to its high 'contagiosity', which would rapidly spread in naive populations, especially those living in urban areas, and worldwide through air travels. There is no anti-viral treatment and vaccine is active in the first four days post-exposure. Today, the stocks of smallpox virus constitute one of the most dangerous threats for humanity. There is a need for improving the safety of the vaccine and to reconsider the preventive strategy to face a possible attack by smallpox virus.     

Vaccination of BALB/c mice with Escherichia coli-expressed vaccinia virus proteins A27L, B5R, and D8L protects mice from lethal vaccinia virus challenge

The potential threat of smallpox use in a bioterrorist attack has heightened the need to develop an effective smallpox vaccine for immunization of the general public. Vaccination with the current smallpox vaccine, Dryvax, produces protective immunity but may result in adverse reactions for some vaccinees. A subunit vaccine composed of protective vaccinia virus proteins should avoid the complications arising from live-virus vaccination and thus provide a safer alternative smallpox vaccine. In this study, we assessed the protective efficacy and immunogenicity of a multisubunit vaccine composed of the A27L and D8L proteins from the intracellular mature virus (IMV) form and the B5R protein from the extracellular enveloped virus (EEV) form of vaccinia virus. BALB/c mice were immunized with Escherichia coli-produced A27L, D8L, and B5R proteins in an adjuvant consisting of monophosphoryl lipid A and trehalose dicorynomycolate or in TiterMax Gold adjuvant. Following immunization, mice were either sacrificed for analysis of immune responses or lethally challenged by intranasal inoculation with vaccinia virus strain Western Reserve. We observed that three immunizations either with A27L, D8L, and B5R or with the A27L and B5R proteins alone induced potent neutralizing antibody responses and provided complete protection against lethal vaccinia virus challenge. Several linear B-cell epitopes within the three proteins were recognized by sera from the immunized mice. In addition, protein-specific cellular responses were detected in spleens of immunized mice by a gamma interferon enzyme-linked immunospot assay using peptides derived from each protein. Our data suggest that a subunit vaccine incorporating bacterially expressed IMV- and EEV-specific proteins can be effective in stimulating anti-vaccinia virus immune responses and providing protection against lethal virus challenge.