Prioritizing Surgical Care on National Health Agendas: A Qualitative Case Study of Papua New Guinea,Uganda, and Sierra Leone

BackgroundLittle is known about the social and political factors that influence priority setting for different health services in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), yet these factors are integral to understanding how national health agendas are established. We investigated factors that facilitate or prevent surgical care from being prioritized in LMICs.ConclusionsNational health agenda setting is a complex social and political process. To embed surgical care within national health policy, sustained advocacy efforts, effective framing of the problem and solutions, and country-specific data are required. Political, technical, and financial support from regional and international partners is also important.     

Traceable Calibration,Performance Metrics,and Uncertainty Estimates of Minirhizotron Digital Imagery for Fine-Root Measurements

Even though fine-root turnover is a highly studied topic, it is often poorly understood as a result of uncertainties inherent in its sampling, e.g., quantifying spatial and temporal variability. While many methods exist to quantify fine-root turnover, use of minirhizotrons has increased over the last two decades, making sensor errors another source of uncertainty. Currently, no standardized methodology exists to test and compare minirhizotron camera capability, imagery, and performance. This paper presents a reproducible, laboratory-based method by which minirhizotron cameras can be tested and validated in a traceable manner. The performance of camera characteristics was identified and test criteria were developed: we quantified the precision of camera location for successive images, estimated the trueness and precision of each camera''s ability to quantify root diameter and root color, and also assessed the influence of heat dissipation introduced by the minirhizotron cameras and electrical components. We report detailed and defensible metrology analyses that examine the performance of two commercially available minirhizotron cameras. These cameras performed differently with regard to the various test criteria and uncertainty analyses. We recommend a defensible metrology approach to quantify the performance of minirhizotron camera characteristics and determine sensor-related measurement uncertainties prior to field use. This approach is also extensible to other digital imagery technologies. In turn, these approaches facilitate a greater understanding of measurement uncertainties (signal-to-noise ratio) inherent in the camera performance and allow such uncertainties to be quantified and mitigated so that estimates of fine-root turnover can be more confidently quantified.     

Factors Associated with HIV Prevalence and HIV Testing in Sierra Leone: Findings from the 2008 Demographic Health Survey

BackgroundThe Sierra Leone Demographic Health Survey 2008 found an HIV prevalence of 1.5%. This study investigates associations with HIV infection and HIV testing.MethodsHouseholds were selected using stratified multi-stage sampling. In all selected households women aged 15–49 were eligible. In every second household men aged 15–59 were also eligible. Participants were asked to consent for anonymous HIV testing. All participants interviewed and tested were analysed. Multiple logistic regression identified associations with HIV infection, undiagnosed infection and with ever having a voluntary HIV test among sexually active participants.ResultsOf 7495 invited 86% (6,475) agreed to an interview and HIV test. Among 96 HIV positive participants, 78% had never taken a voluntary HIV test so were unaware of their serostatus, and 86% were sexually active in the last 12 months among whom 96% did not use a condom at last intercourse. 11% of all participants had previously voluntarily tested. Among women who had tested, 60% did so in antenatal care. We found that those living in an urban area, and those previously married, were more likely to be HIV infected. Voluntary HIV testing was more common in those aged 25–44, living in an urban area, females, having secondary or higher education, having first sexual intercourse at age 17 years or older, and using condoms at last sex. Although 82% of men and 69% of women had heard of HIV, only 35% and 29% respectively had heard of antiretroviral therapy.ConclusionsThe HIV prevalence in Sierra Leone has been stable. HIV testing, however, is uncommon and most infected individuals are unaware of their serostatus. This could allow the epidemic to escalate as individuals with undiagnosed infection are unlikely to change their behaviour or access treatment. Improving knowledge and increasing testing need to remain central to HIV prevention interventions in Sierra Leone.     

Assessment on the Knowledge and Reported Practices of Women on Maternal and Child Health in Rural Sierra Leone: A Cross-Sectional Survey

Background

Globally, Sierra Leone is ranked among the countries with the worst maternal and child health indicators. The mortality of women and children is significantly higher compared with other developing countries. The death of women and children can be prevented by simple cost-effective community-based interventions. The aim of this present study was to learn the knowledge levels of women on maternal and child health, and treatment-seeking and preventive behaviours in rural Sierra Leone and provide appropriate suggestions for policy makers. Moreover, the study also aimed to evaluate the effect of a husband’s involvement on health knowledge and practices of women in rural Sierra Leone.

Methods

Women with at least a child of five years or below were interviewed in their households through a structured questionnaire. Characteristics of the households and of the respondents were collected and the number of correct answers given to the health knowledge and practice questions and their percentage distributions were tabulated and an overall health knowledge score was calculated.

Results

The mean score of the derived overall health-related knowledge was 61.6% (maximum of 91% and a minimum of 18%) with a standard deviation of 14.7% and a median of 63.3%. Multivariable regression analyses showed education and number of pregnancies are associated with knowledge score, with significantly improved health knowledge scores amongst those who accessed higher education. There were some inappropriate practices in hygiene and sanitation. However, vaccination coverage was high with almost 100% coverage for BCG.

Conclusions

Based on the findings of this study, women’s knowledge on maternal and child health care are inadequate in rural Sierra Leone. Health promotion activities focusing on prevention of diarrhoea, malaria and pneumonia, improvement in health-related knowledge on pregnancy, delivery, neonatal care and environmental sanitation would be invaluable.     

A One Health Framework for the Evaluation of Rabies Control Programmes: A Case Study from Colombo City,Sri Lanka

Background

One Health addresses complex challenges to promote the health of all species and the environment by integrating relevant sciences at systems level. Its application to zoonotic diseases is recommended, but few coherent frameworks exist that combine approaches from multiple disciplines. Rabies requires an interdisciplinary approach for effective and efficient management.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A framework is proposed to assess the value of rabies interventions holistically. The economic assessment compares additional monetary and non-monetary costs and benefits of an intervention taking into account epidemiological, animal welfare, societal impact and cost data. It is complemented by an ethical assessment. The framework is applied to Colombo City, Sri Lanka, where modified dog rabies intervention measures were implemented in 2007. The two options included for analysis were the control measures in place until 2006 (“baseline scenario”) and the new comprehensive intervention measures (“intervention”) for a four-year duration. Differences in control cost; monetary human health costs after exposure; Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) lost due to human rabies deaths and the psychological burden following a bite; negative impact on animal welfare; epidemiological indicators; social acceptance of dogs; and ethical considerations were estimated using a mixed method approach including primary and secondary data. Over the four years analysed, the intervention cost US $1.03 million more than the baseline scenario in 2011 prices (adjusted for inflation) and caused a reduction in dog rabies cases; 738 DALYs averted; an increase in acceptability among non-dog owners; a perception of positive changes in society including a decrease in the number of roaming dogs; and a net reduction in the impact on animal welfare from intermediate-high to low-intermediate.

Conclusions

The findings illustrate the multiple outcomes relevant to stakeholders and allow greater understanding of the value of the implemented rabies control measures, thereby providing a solid foundation for informed decision-making and sustainable control.     

Comparison of Methods for Correction of Mortality Estimates for Loss to Follow-Up after ART Initiation: A Case of the Infectious Diseases Institute,Uganda

Background

In sub-Saharan Africa, a large proportion of HIV positive patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) are lost to follow-up, some of whom are dead. The objective of this study was to validate methods used to correct mortality estimates for loss-to-follow-up using a cohort with complete death ascertainment.

Methods

Routinely collected data from HIV patients initiating first line antiretroviral therapy (ART) at the Infectious Diseases Institute (IDI) (Routine Cohort) was used. Three methods to estimate mortality after initiation were: 1) standard Kaplan-Meier estimation (uncorrected method) that uses passively observed data; 2) double-sampling methods by Frangakis and Rubin (F&R) where deaths obtained from patient tracing studies are given a higher weight than those passively ascertained; 3) Nomogram proposed by Egger et al. Corrected mortality estimates in the Routine Cohort, were compared with the estimates from the IDI research observational cohort (Research Cohort), which was used as the “gold-standard”.

Results

We included 5,633 patients from the Routine Cohort and 559 from the Research Cohort. Uncorrected mortality estimates (95% confidence interval [1]) in the Routine Cohort at 1, 2 and 3 years were 5.5% (4.9%–6.3%), 6.6% (5.9%–7.5%) and 7.4% (6.5%–8.5%), respectively. The F&R corrected estimates at 1, 2 and 3 years were 11.2% (5.8%–21.2%), 15.8% (9.9%–24.8%) and 18.5% (12.3% –27.2%) respectively. The estimates obtained from the Research Cohort were 15.6% (12.8%–18.9%), 17.5% (14.6%–21.0%) and 19.0% (15.3%–21.9%) at 1, 2 and 3 years respectively. Using the nomogram method in the Routine Cohort, the corrected programme-level mortality estimate in year 1 was 11.9% (8.0%–15.7%).

Conclusion

Mortality adjustments provided by the F&R and nomogram methods are adequate and should be employed to correct mortality for loss-to-follow-up in large HIV care centres in Sub-Saharan Africa.     

Robust Estimates of Divergence Times and Selection with a Poisson Random Field Model: A Case Study of Comparative Phylogeographic Data

Mutation frequencies can be modeled as a Poisson random field (PRF) to estimate speciation times and the degree of selection on newly arisen mutations. This approach provides a quantitative theory for comparing intraspecific polymorphism with interspecific divergence in the presence of selection and can be used to estimate population genetic parameters. Although the original PRF model has been extended to more general biological settings to make statistical inference about selection and divergence among model organisms, it has not been incorporated into phylogeographic studies that focus on estimating population genetic parameters for nonmodel organisms. Here, we modified a recently developed time-dependent PRF model to independently estimate genetic parameters from a nuclear and mitochondrial DNA data set of 22 sister pairs of birds that have diverged across a biogeographic barrier. We found that species that inhabit humid habitats had more recent divergence times and larger effective population sizes than those that inhabit drier habitats, and divergence time estimated from the PRF model were similar to estimates from a coalescent species-tree approach. Selection coefficients were higher in sister pairs that inhabited drier habitats than in those in humid habitats, but overall the mitochondrial DNA was under weak selection. Our study indicates that PRF models are useful for estimating various population genetic parameters and serve as a framework for incorporating estimates of selection into comparative phylogeographic studies.     

Global Warming Impact of E85 Fuel Derived from Forest Biomass: A Case Study from Southern USA

This study estimates global warming impact (GWI) of E85 fuel needed to run a small passenger car for its average lifetime, i.e., 241,402 km (150,000 miles). The ethanol needed for the production of E85 fuel was derived from an intensively managed slash pine (Pinus elliottii) plantation in the southern USA. We assumed that only pulpwood and harvesting residues obtained at the time of harvesting were used for ethanol production. A suitable system boundary was defined and a detailed life-cycle assessment was undertaken to determine GWI of all the steps present within the system boundary. Results indicate that the overall GWI of the E85 fuel was about 76% less than an equivalent amount of gasoline needed to run a small passenger car for its average lifetime. Within the system boundary, the GWI of the ethanol production stage was highest followed by the stage of E85 fuel consumption in a small passenger car. A need exists to evaluate impacts of utilizing forest biomass for E85 fuel production on forest ecology and traditional forest biomass-based industries.     

Accuracy of Lightweight Satellite Telemetry: A Case Study in the Iberian Peninsula

Abstract: Here we provide the first assessment of the accuracy of lightweight satellite transmitters (<80 g) under actual operating conditions and the performance of the Argos system in southern Europe. To estimate transmitter accuracy we used transmitters equipped with a Global Positioning System (GPS) and compared the location estimates provided by Argos with the estimates provided by the GPS. Using the 68th percentile to define the accuracy of locations estimates, observed accuracy was 4 km for Location Class (LC) 1, 15 km for LC 0, 20 km for LC A, and 59 km for LC B, which is in line with estimates reported by other authors. Yet, the error of the remaining 32% of the data ranged between 4 km and 11 km, 15 km and 217 km, 20 km and 145 km, and 59 km and 493 km, respectively, suggesting that using the 68th percentile to estimate accuracies might give misleading confidence on the accuracy of location estimates. Using the 90th percentile is probably more appropriate. Less than 10% of the locations we obtained corresponded to the more accurate LCs (3, 2, and 1), with Argos failing to provide a position estimate in 45% of the attempts. The low number of high-quality location estimates is likely a consequence of the electromagnetic interference reported for our study area, rather than a defect of the Platform Transmitter Terminals (PTTs), which under good conditions of signal reception seem to be as reliable as heavier ones. The recent advent of lightweight GPS transmitters overrides most of these problems. Yet, whereas the smallest Argos-GPS PTTs weigh 30 g, which restricts their use to animals weighting > 1,000 g, conventional PTTs can be as small as 9.5 g, allowing their use with animals weighting 250-300 g.     

Citing a Data Repository: A Case Study of the Protein Data Bank

The Protein Data Bank (PDB) is the worldwide repository of 3D structures of proteins, nucleic acids and complex assemblies. The PDB’s large corpus of data (> 100,000 structures) and related citations provide a well-organized and extensive test set for developing and understanding data citation and access metrics. In this paper, we present a systematic investigation of how authors cite PDB as a data repository. We describe a novel metric based on information cascade constructed by exploring the citation network to measure influence between competing works and apply that to analyze different data citation practices to PDB. Based on this new metric, we found that the original publication of RCSB PDB in the year 2000 continues to attract most citations though many follow-up updates were published. None of these follow-up publications by members of the wwPDB organization can compete with the original publication in terms of citations and influence. Meanwhile, authors increasingly choose to use URLs of PDB in the text instead of citing PDB papers, leading to disruption of the growth of the literature citations. A comparison of data usage statistics and paper citations shows that PDB Web access is highly correlated with URL mentions in the text. The results reveal the trend of how authors cite a biomedical data repository and may provide useful insight of how to measure the impact of a data repository.     

The Use of Surrogate Data in Demographic Population Viability Analysis: A Case Study of California Sea Lions

Reliable data necessary to parameterize population models are seldom available for imperiled species. As an alternative, data from populations of the same species or from ecologically similar species have been used to construct models. In this study, we evaluated the use of demographic data collected at one California sea lion colony (Los Islotes) to predict the population dynamics of the same species from two other colonies (San Jorge and Granito) in the Gulf of California, Mexico, for which demographic data are lacking. To do so, we developed a stochastic demographic age-structured matrix model and conducted a population viability analysis for each colony. For the Los Islotes colony we used site-specific pup, juvenile, and adult survival probabilities, as well as birth rates for older females. For the other colonies, we used site-specific pup and juvenile survival probabilities, but used surrogate data from Los Islotes for adult survival probabilities and birth rates. We assessed these models by comparing simulated retrospective population trajectories to observed population trends based on count data. The projected population trajectories approximated the observed trends when surrogate data were used for one colony but failed to match for a second colony. Our results indicate that species-specific and even region-specific surrogate data may lead to erroneous conservation decisions. These results highlight the importance of using population-specific demographic data in assessing extinction risk. When vital rates are not available and immediate management actions must be taken, in particular for imperiled species, we recommend the use of surrogate data only when the populations appear to have similar population trends.     

Determining Occurrence Dynamics when False Positives Occur: Estimating the Range Dynamics of Wolves from Public Survey Data

Large-scale presence-absence monitoring programs have great promise for many conservation applications. Their value can be limited by potential incorrect inferences owing to observational errors, especially when data are collected by the public. To combat this, previous analytical methods have focused on addressing non-detection from public survey data. Misclassification errors have received less attention but are also likely to be a common component of public surveys, as well as many other data types. We derive estimators for dynamic occupancy parameters (extinction and colonization), focusing on the case where certainty can be assumed for a subset of detections. We demonstrate how to simultaneously account for non-detection (false negatives) and misclassification (false positives) when estimating occurrence parameters for gray wolves in northern Montana from 2007–2010. Our primary data source for the analysis was observations by deer and elk hunters, reported as part of the state’s annual hunter survey. This data was supplemented with data from known locations of radio-collared wolves. We found that occupancy was relatively stable during the years of the study and wolves were largely restricted to the highest quality habitats in the study area. Transitions in the occupancy status of sites were rare, as occupied sites almost always remained occupied and unoccupied sites remained unoccupied. Failing to account for false positives led to over estimation of both the area inhabited by wolves and the frequency of turnover. The ability to properly account for both false negatives and false positives is an important step to improve inferences for conservation from large-scale public surveys. The approach we propose will improve our understanding of the status of wolf populations and is relevant to many other data types where false positives are a component of observations.     

Environmental Instability as a Motor for Dispersal: A Case Study from a Growing Population of Glossy Ibis

Dispersal is a life-history trait directly affecting population dynamics and species range shifts and thus playing a prominent role in the response to climate change. Nonetheless, the relationship between extreme climatic events and dispersal has received little attention in birds. Here we focused on climatic, demographic and individual factors affecting the dispersal propensity of a major glossy ibis population. We performed a capture-resighting analysis on individuals born and observed at Doñana (South-West Spain) over fourteen years. We applied a multiple analytical approach to show that single-site capture-resighting estimates were a reliable index of dispersal propensity from the area. We focused on the emigration of Doñana-born individuals sporadically (transients) and regularly (residents) frequenting their natal area. Droughts during two out of 14 study years caused higher apparent dispersal rates, explaining most of the annual variation in these rates. The age structure of Doñana-born individuals resighted simultaneously locally and in Morocco in one week over the 2010 autumn confirmed that the 2005 drought boosted permanent emigration. As numbers increased steadily during non-drought years since the formation of the colony in 1996 to several thousand pairs, philopatry increased gradually, while transients probability appeared to be related to average breeding success. Age, sex, density, quality of foraging habitat and breeding success in the previous season were not found to directly affect apparent dispersal. Nonetheless, autumn sex ratio gradually switched from male (≈0.68) to female-skewed (≈0.44) by the end of the study period, suggesting that males and females respond differently to high densities reached in recent years. This study demonstrates the importance of extreme climatic events as a powerful motor for spread of species in expansion. Also, it suggests different factors drive emigration of individuals according to their amount of experience in the area (e.g. transients vs residents).     

Estimation of Agricultural Water Consumption from Meteorological and Yield Data: A Case Study of Hebei,North China

Over-exploitation of groundwater resources for irrigated grain production in Hebei province threatens national grain food security. The objective of this study was to quantify agricultural water consumption (AWC) and irrigation water consumption in this region. A methodology to estimate AWC was developed based on Penman-Monteith method using meteorological station data (1984–2008) and existing actual ET (2002–2008) data which estimated from MODIS satellite data through a remote sensing ET model. The validation of the model using the experimental plots (50 m²) data observed from the Luancheng Agro-ecosystem Experimental Station, Chinese Academy of Sciences, showed the average deviation of the model was −3.7% for non-rainfed plots. The total AWC and irrigation water (mainly groundwater) consumption for Hebei province from 1984–2008 were then estimated as 864 km³ and 139 km³, respectively. In addition, we found the AWC has significantly increased during the past 25 years except for a few counties located in mountainous regions. Estimations of net groundwater consumption for grain food production within the plain area of Hebei province in the past 25 years accounted for 113 km³ which could cause average groundwater decrease of 7.4 m over the plain. The integration of meteorological and satellite data allows us to extend estimation of actual ET beyond the record available from satellite data, and the approach could be applicable in other regions globally where similar data are available.     

Global Mortality Estimates for the 2009 Influenza Pandemic from the GLaMOR Project: A Modeling Study

Background

Assessing the mortality impact of the 2009 influenza A H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm09) is essential for optimizing public health responses to future pandemics. The World Health Organization reported 18,631 laboratory-confirmed pandemic deaths, but the total pandemic mortality burden was substantially higher. We estimated the 2009 pandemic mortality burden through statistical modeling of mortality data from multiple countries.

Methods and Findings

We obtained weekly virology and underlying cause-of-death mortality time series for 2005–2009 for 20 countries covering ∼35% of the world population. We applied a multivariate linear regression model to estimate pandemic respiratory mortality in each collaborating country. We then used these results plus ten country indicators in a multiple imputation model to project the mortality burden in all world countries. Between 123,000 and 203,000 pandemic respiratory deaths were estimated globally for the last 9 mo of 2009. The majority (62%–85%) were attributed to persons under 65 y of age. We observed a striking regional heterogeneity, with almost 20-fold higher mortality in some countries in the Americas than in Europe. The model attributed 148,000–249,000 respiratory deaths to influenza in an average pre-pandemic season, with only 19% in persons <65 y. Limitations include lack of representation of low-income countries among single-country estimates and an inability to study subsequent pandemic waves (2010–2012).

Conclusions

We estimate that 2009 global pandemic respiratory mortality was ∼10-fold higher than the World Health Organization''s laboratory-confirmed mortality count. Although the pandemic mortality estimate was similar in magnitude to that of seasonal influenza, a marked shift toward mortality among persons <65 y of age occurred, so that many more life-years were lost. The burden varied greatly among countries, corroborating early reports of far greater pandemic severity in the Americas than in Australia, New Zealand, and Europe. A collaborative network to collect and analyze mortality and hospitalization surveillance data is needed to rapidly establish the severity of future pandemics. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

The Concept of City Carbon Maps: A Case Study of Melbourne,Australia

Cities are thought to be associated with most of humanity's consumption of natural resources and impacts on the environment. Cities not only constitute major centers of economic activity, knowledge, innovation, and governance—they are also said to be linked to approximately 70% to 80% of global carbon dioxide emissions. This makes cities primary agents of change in a resource‐ and carbon‐constraint world. In order to set meaningful targets, design successful policies, and implement effective mitigation strategies, it is important that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions accounting for cities is accurate, comparable, comprehensive, and complete. Despite recent developments in the standardization of city GHG accounting, there is still a lack of consistent guidelines regarding out‐of‐boundary emissions, thus hampering efforts to identify mitigation priorities and responsibilities. We introduce a new conceptual framework—based on environmental input‐output analysis—that allows for a consistent and complete reconciliation of direct and indirect GHG emissions from a city. The “city carbon map” shows local, regional, national, and global origins and destinations of flows of embodied emissions. We test the carbon map concept by applying it to the greater metropolitan area of Melbourne, Australia. We discuss the results and limitations of the approach in the light of possible mitigation strategies and policies by different urban stakeholders.     

Can Abundance of Protists Be Inferred from Sequence Data: A Case Study of Foraminifera

Protists are key players in microbial communities, yet our understanding of their role in ecosystem functioning is seriously impeded by difficulties in identification of protistan species and their quantification. Current microscopy-based methods used for determining the abundance of protists are tedious and often show a low taxonomic resolution. Recent development of next-generation sequencing technologies offered a very powerful tool for studying the richness of protistan communities. Still, the relationship between abundance of species and number of sequences remains subjected to various technical and biological biases. Here, we test the impact of some of these biological biases on sequence abundance of SSU rRNA gene in foraminifera. First, we quantified the rDNA copy number and rRNA expression level of three species of foraminifera by qPCR. Then, we prepared five mock communities with these species, two in equal proportions and three with one species ten times more abundant. The libraries of rDNA and cDNA of the mock communities were constructed, Sanger sequenced and the sequence abundance was calculated. The initial species proportions were compared to the raw sequence proportions as well as to the sequence abundance normalized by rDNA copy number and rRNA expression level per species. Our results showed that without normalization, all sequence data differed significantly from the initial proportions. After normalization, the congruence between the number of sequences and number of specimens was much better. We conclude that without normalization, species abundance determination based on sequence data was not possible because of the effect of biological biases. Nevertheless, by taking into account the variation of rDNA copy number and rRNA expression level we were able to infer species abundance, suggesting that our approach can be successful in controlled conditions.     

A Review and Comparison of Methods for Recreating Individual Patient Data from Published Kaplan-Meier Survival Curves for Economic Evaluations: A Simulation Study

Background

In general, the individual patient-level data (IPD) collected in clinical trials are not available to independent researchers to conduct economic evaluations; researchers only have access to published survival curves and summary statistics. Thus, methods that use published survival curves and summary statistics to reproduce statistics for economic evaluations are essential. Four methods have been identified: two traditional methods 1) least squares method, 2) graphical method; and two recently proposed methods by 3) Hoyle and Henley, 4) Guyot et al. The four methods were first individually reviewed and subsequently assessed regarding their abilities to estimate mean survival through a simulation study.

Methods

A number of different scenarios were developed that comprised combinations of various sample sizes, censoring rates and parametric survival distributions. One thousand simulated survival datasets were generated for each scenario, and all methods were applied to actual IPD. The uncertainty in the estimate of mean survival time was also captured.

Results

All methods provided accurate estimates of the mean survival time when the sample size was 500 and a Weibull distribution was used. When the sample size was 100 and the Weibull distribution was used, the Guyot et al. method was almost as accurate as the Hoyle and Henley method; however, more biases were identified in the traditional methods. When a lognormal distribution was used, the Guyot et al. method generated noticeably less bias and a more accurate uncertainty compared with the Hoyle and Henley method.

Conclusions

The traditional methods should not be preferred because of their remarkable overestimation. When the Weibull distribution was used for a fitted model, the Guyot et al. method was almost as accurate as the Hoyle and Henley method. However, if the lognormal distribution was used, the Guyot et al. method was less biased compared with the Hoyle and Henley method.