Plant-based diets and incident cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality in African Americans: A cohort study

BackgroundPrior studies have documented lower cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk among people with a higher adherence to a plant-based dietary pattern. Non-Hispanic black Americans are an understudied group with high burden of CVD, yet studies of plant-based diets have been limited in this population.Methods and findingsWe conducted an analysis of prospectively collected data from a community-based cohort of African American adults (n = 3,635) in the Jackson Heart Study (JHS) aged 21–95 years, living in the Jackson, Mississippi, metropolitan area, US, who were followed from 2000 to 2018. Using self-reported dietary data, we assigned scores to participants’ adherence to 3 plant-based dietary patterns: an overall plant-based diet index (PDI), a healthy PDI (hPDI), and an unhealthy PDI (uPDI). Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate associations between plant-based diet scores and CVD incidence and all-cause mortality. Over a median follow-up of 13 and 15 years, there were 293 incident CVD cases and 597 deaths, respectively. After adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics (age, sex, and education) and health behaviors (smoking, alcohol intake, margarine intake, physical activity, and total energy intake), no significant association was observed between plant-based diets and incident CVD for overall PDI (hazard ratio [HR] 1.06, 95% CI 0.78–1.42, p-trend = 0.72), hPDI (HR 1.07, 95% CI 0.80–1.42, p-trend = 0.67), and uPDI (HR 0.95, 95% CI 0.71–1.28, p-trend = 0.76). Corresponding HRs (95% CIs) for all-cause mortality risk with overall PDI, hPDI, and uPDI were 0.96 (0.78–1.18), 0.94 (0.76–1.16), and 1.06 (0.86–1.30), respectively. Corresponding HRs (95% CIs) for incident coronary heart disease with overall PDI, hPDI, and uPDI were 1.09 (0.74–1.61), 1.11 (0.76–1.61), and 0.79 (0.52–1.18), respectively. For incident total stroke, HRs (95% CIs) for overall PDI, hPDI, and uPDI were 1.00 (0.66–1.52), 0.91 (0.61–1.36), and 1.26 (0.84–1.89) (p-trend for all tests > 0.05). Limitations of the study include use of self-reported dietary intake, residual confounding, potential for reverse causation, and that the study did not capture those who exclusively consume plant-derived foods.ConclusionsIn this study of black Americans, we observed that, unlike in prior studies, greater adherence to a plant-based diet was not associated with CVD or all-cause mortality.

In a cohort study, Leah J. Weston and colleagues investigate the associations between consumption of plant-based diets and incident cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality in African Americans.     

Prospective Cohort Study of Central Adiposity and Risk of Death in Middle Aged and Elderly Chinese

Asians have high prevalence of central obesity despite the low prevalence of general obesity. We evaluated associations between the central obesity measure, waist-hip ratio (WHR) with total and cause-specific mortality in middle-aged and elderly Chinese participants. Data arise from two prospective population-based cohort studies: the Shanghai Men’s Health Study involves 53,425 men (participation rate = 74.0%), age 40–74 at baseline, and the Shanghai Women’s Health Study involves 63,017 women (participation rate = 92.7%), age 40–70 at baseline. Information on lifestyle factors and anthropometric measurements were taken at baseline interview. Vital status and causes of death were obtained via surveys and annual linkages to relevant Shanghai registries through December 31, 2011. After median follow-up time of 7.5 years for the Shanghai Men’s Health Study and 13.2 years for the Shanghai Women’s Health Study, there were 2,058 and 3,167 deaths, respectively. In models adjusted for BMI and other potential confounders, WHR was associated with all-cause mortality; hazard ratios (HRs) (95% confidence intervals) across the first to fifth quintile increased from 1 (Reference), 1.10 (0.95,1.27), 1.21 (1.04,1.41), 1.11 (0.96,1.30), to 1.42 (1.22,1.65) in men and from 1 (Reference), 1.10 (0.96,1.27), 1.11 (0.97,1.27), 1.20 (1.05,1.37), to 1.48 (1.30,1.69) in women. WHR had a stronger association with cardiovascular disease, with multivariate-adjusted HRs of 1.5 to 1.7 observed for the highest versus lowest quintile of WHR. Dose-response associations were also seen for cancer and other-cause deaths. Stratified analyses suggested a stronger association with mortality among normal weight (BMI <25) than over-weight (BMI ≥25) individuals. Positive associations with mortality were observed in subgroups defined by follow-up duration, comorbidity, age, smoking, and physical activity. Greater central adiposity is associated with increased mortality in Chinese adults, even among individuals with low BMI. Physicians and the public should be aware of central adiposity’s independent effects on health.     

Association of Body Mass Index with All-Cause and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in the Elderly

Objectives

To evaluate the associations of body mass index (BMI) with all-cause, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and expanded CVD mortality in the elderly.

Design

Observational cohort study.

Setting

Annual physical examination program for the elderly from 2006 to 2010.

Participants

We included 77,541 Taipei residents aged ≥65 years (39,365 men and 38,176 women).

Measurements

BMI was categorized as underweight (BMI<18.5), normal weight (18.5≤BMI<25), overweight (25≤BMI<30), grade 1 obesity (30≤BMI<35), or grade 2–3 obesity (BMI≥35). Mortality was ascertained by national death files.

Results

Underweight (hazard ratios [HRs] of all-cause, CVD, and expanded CVD mortality: 1.92, 1.74, and 1.77, respectively), grade 2–3 obesity (HRs: 1.59, 2.36, and 2.22, respectively), older age, male sex, smoking, and high fasting blood sugar were significant predictors of mortality. Meanwhile, being married/cohabitating, higher education, alcohol consumption, more regular exercise, and high total cholesterol were inversely associated with mortality. Multivariate stratified subgroup analyses verified smokers (HRs of all-cause, CVD, and expanded CVD mortality: 3.25, 10.71, and 7.86, respectively, for grade 2–3 obesity), the high triglyceride group (HRs: 5.82, 10.99, and 14.22, respectively for underweight), and patients with 3–4 factors related to metabolic syndrome (HRs: 4.86, 12.72, and 11.42, respectively, for underweight) were associated with mortality.

Conclusion

The associations of BMI with all-cause, CVD, expanded CVD mortality in the elderly are represented by U-shaped curves, suggesting unilateral promotions or interventions in weight reduction in the elderly may be inappropriate. Heterogeneous effects of grades 1 and 2–3 obesity on mortality were observed and should be treated as different levels of obesity.     

Obesity Indexes and Total Mortality among Elderly Subjects at High Cardiovascular Risk: The PREDIMED Study

Background

Different indexes of regional adiposity have been proposed for identifying persons at higher risk of death. Studies specifically assessing these indexes in large cohorts are scarce. It would also be interesting to know whether a dietary intervention may counterbalance the adverse effects of adiposity on mortality.

Methods

We assessed the association of four different anthropometric indexes (waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), waist circumference (WC), body mass index (BMI) and height) with all-cause mortality in 7447 participants at high cardiovascular risk from the PREDIMED trial. Forty three percent of them were men (55 to 80 years) and 57% were women (60 to 80 years). All of them were initially free of cardiovascular disease. The recruitment took place in 11 recruiting centers between 2003 and 2009.

Results

After adjusting for age, sex, smoking, diabetes, hypertension, intervention group, family history of coronary heart disease, and leisure-time physical activity, WC and WHtR were found to be directly associated with a higher mortality after 4.8 years median follow-up. The multivariable-adjusted HRs for mortality of WHtR (cut-off points: 0.60, 0.65, 0.70) were 1.02 (0.78–1.34), 1.30 (0.97–1.75) and 1.55 (1.06–2.26). When we used WC (cut-off points: 100, 105 and 110 cm), the multivariable adjusted Hazard Ratios (HRs) for mortality were 1.18 (0.88–1.59), 1.02 (0.74–1.41) and 1.57 (1.19–2.08). In all analyses, BMI exhibited weaker associations with mortality than WC or WHtR. The direct association between WHtR and overall mortality was consistent within each of the three intervention arms of the trial.

Conclusions

Our study adds further support to a stronger association of abdominal obesity than BMI with total mortality among elderly subjects at high risk of cardiovascular disease. We did not find evidence to support that the PREDIMED intervention was able to counterbalance the harmful effects of increased adiposity on total mortality.

Trial Registration

Controlled-Trials.com ISRCTN35739639     

Incidence and Predictors of End Stage Renal Disease among Low-Income Blacks and Whites

We evaluated whether black race is associated with higher incidence of End Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) among a cohort of blacks and whites of similar, generally low socioeconomic status, and whether risk factor patterns differ among blacks and whites and explain the poorly understood racial disparity in ESRD. Incident diagnoses of ESRD among 79,943 black and white participants in the Southern Community Cohort Study (SCCS) were ascertained by linkage with the United States Renal Data System (USRDS) from 2002 through 2009. Person-years of follow up were calculated from date of entry into the SCCS until date of ESRD diagnosis, date of death, or September 1, 2009, whichever occurred first. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for incident ESRD among black and white participants in relation to baseline characteristics. After 329,003 person-years of follow-up, 687 incident cases of ESRD were identified in the cohort. The age-adjusted ESRD incidence rate was 273 (per 100,000) among blacks, 3.5-fold higher than the rate of 78 among whites. Risk factors for ESRD included male sex (HR = 1.6; 95% CI 1.4–1.9), low income (HR = 1.5; 95% CI 1.2–1.8 for income below vs. above $15,000), smoking (HR = 1.2; 95% CI 1.02–1.4) and histories of diabetes (HRs increasing to 9.4 (95% CI 7.4–11.9) among those with ≥20 years diabetes duration) and hypertension (HR = 2.9; 95% CI 2.3–3.7). Patterns and magnitudes of association were virtually identical among blacks and whites. After adjustment for these risk factors, blacks continued to have a higher risk for ESRD (HR = 2.4; 95% CI = 1.9–3.0) relative to whites. The black-white disparity in risk of ESRD was attenuated but not eliminated after control for known risk factors in a closely socioeconomically matched cohort. Further research characterizing biomedical factors, including CKD progression, in ESRD occurrence in these two racial groups is needed.     

The Impact of Health Behaviours on Incident Cardiovascular Disease in Europeans and South Asians – A Prospective Analysis in the UK SABRE Study

Background

There is consistent evidence on the impact of health behaviours on risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in European populations. As South Asians in the UK have an excess risk of CVD and coronary heart disease (CHD) compared to Europeans, we investigated whether a similar association between combined health behaviours and risk of CVD and CHD among this high-risk group exists, and estimated the population impact.

Methods and Findings

In a prospective cohort of 1090 Europeans and 1006 South Asians (40–69 y) without prevalent CVD at baseline (1988–1990), followed up for 21 years to 2011, there were 601 incident CVD events [Europeans n = 255; South Asians n = 346] of which 520 were CHD events [n = 207 and 313 respectively]. Participants scored between 0 to 4 points for a composite score including four baseline healthy behaviours (non-smoker, moderate alcohol intake, physically active, frequent fruit/vegetable intake). Adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for incident CHD in Europeans who had three, two, one, and zero compared to four health behaviours were 1.33 (0.78–2.29), 1.96 (1.15–3.33), 1.36 (0.74–2.48) and 2.45 (1.18–5.10), respectively, p-trend = 0.025. In South Asians, corresponding HRs were 2.88 (1.33–6.24), 2.28 (1.06–4.91), 3.36 (1.53–7.39) and 3.48 (1.38–8.81), p-trend = 0.022. The results were similar for incident CVD; Europeans HR 2.12 (1.14–3.94), p–trend = 0.014; South Asians HR 2.73 (1.20–6.21), p-trend = 0.018. The population attributable fraction in Europeans was 43% for CHD and 28% for CVD. In South Asians it was 63% and 51% respectively.

Conclusions

Lack of adherence to four combined health behaviours was associated with 2 to 3-fold increased risk of incident CVD in Europeans and South Asians. A substantial population impact in the South Asian group indicates important potential for disease prevention in this high-risk group by adherence to healthy behaviours.     

Body Mass Index,Mortality, and Gender Difference in Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease

Background and Aim

A higher body mass index (BMI) appears to be reversely associated with mortality in dialysis patients. Moreover, although women have better survival in chronic kidney disease (CKD), this survival advantage is cancelled in dialysis. The association between BMI and mortality and the gender difference remain controversial in advanced CKD.

Methods

This study enrolled 3,320 patients (1,938 men and 1,382 women) from southern Taiwan who had CKD stages 3–5 with a BMI of 15.0–35.0 kg/m².

Results

During a median 2.9-year follow-up, there were 328 (16.9%) all-cause mortality and 319 (16.5%) cardiovascular (CV) events and death in male patients, 213 (15.4%) all-cause mortality and 224 (16.2%) CV events and death in female patients. Compared with the reference BMI of 27.6–30.0 kg/m² in an adjusted Cox model, lower-BMI groups in men, BMI 15.0–20.0 kg/m² and 20.1–22.5 kg/m², were associated with higher risks of all-cause mortality: hazard ratios (HRs) 3.19 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.97–5.18) and 2.01 (95% CI, 1.29–3.14), respectively. Higher-BMI group in men, BMI 30.1–35.0 kg/m², was associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality: HR 1.72 (95% CI, 1.02–2.96). Likewise, lower- and higher-BMI groups in men were associated with a higher risk of CV events and death. In women, these associations between BMI and poor outcomes were not observed.

Conclusions

In advanced CKD, there was a reverse J-shaped association between BMI and all-cause mortality, and a U-shaped association between BMI and CV outcomes in men. Neutral associations between BMI and poor outcomes were detected in women. Gender could modify the effect of BMI on mortality in patients with CKD.     

Body Mass Index and Mortality among Korean Elderly in Rural Communities: Kangwha Cohort Study

BackgroundThe relationship between body mass index (BMI) and mortality may differ by ethnicity, but its exact nature remains unclear among Koreans. The study aim was to prospectively examine the association between BMI and mortality in Korean.Methods6166 residents (2636 men; 3530 women) of rural communities (Kangwha County, Republic of Korea) aged 55 and above were followed up for deaths from 1985–2008. The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios were calculated using the Cox proportional hazards model.ResultsDuring the 23.8 years of follow-up (an average of 12.5 years in men and 15.7 years in women), 2174 men and 2372 women died. Men with BMI of 21.0–27.4 and women with BMI of 20.0–27.4 had a minimal risk for all-cause mortality. A lower BMI as well as a higher BMI increased the hazard ratio of death. For example, multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios associated with BMI below 16, and with BMI of 27.5 and above, were 2.4 (95% CI = 1.6–3.5) and 1.5 (95% CI = 1.1–1.9) respectively, in men, compared to those with BMI of 23.0–24.9. This reverse J-curve association was maintained among never smokers, and among people with no known chronic diseases. Higher BMI increased vascular mortality, while lower BMI increased deaths from vascular diseases, cancers, and, especially, respiratory diseases. Except for cancers, these associations were generally weaker in women than in men.ConclusionsA reverse J-curve association between BMI and all-cause mortality may exist. BMI of 21–27.4 (rather than the range suggested by WHO of 18.5–23 for Asians) may be considered a normal range with acceptable risk in Koreans aged 55 and above, and may be used as cut points for interventions. More concern should be given to people with BMI above and below a BMI range with acceptable risk. Further studies are needed to determine ethnicity-specific associations.     

Measures of Adiposity and Risk of Stroke in China: A Result from the Kailuan Study

Objective

The objective of this study was to explore the association between adiposity and risk of incident stroke among men and women.

Methods

We studied the relationship between adiposity and stroke among 94,744 participants (18–98 years old) in the Kailuan study. During a follow-up of 4 years, 1,547 ischemic or hemorrhagic strokes were recorded. Measurements of adiposity included body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), waist-to-hip ratio (WHpR), and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR). Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated from Cox regression models and each model fit was assessed using −2log-likelihood.

Results

Every measurement of adiposity was associated with the risk for total stroke and ischemic stroke, but not for hemorrhagic stroke. After adjusting for confounders and intermediates, the HR (comparing the mean of the highest quintile with that of the lowest quintile) for total stroke was 1.34(1.13–1.60) for BMI, 1.26(1.06–1.52) for WC, 1.29(1.08–1.56) for WHpR, and 1.38(1.15–1.66) for WHtR. The HR for ischemic stroke was 1.52(1.24–1.88) for BMI, 1.46(1.17–1.81) for WC, 1.40(1.12–1.74) for WHpR, and 1.62(1.29–2.04) for WHtR. The model fit for each of the indices was similar.

Conclusions

Adiposity increases the total risk of stroke and ischemic stroke, but not of hemorrhagic stroke. No clinically meaningful differences among the associations between BMI, WC, WHpR, and WHtR and stroke incidence were identified in this study.     

Association between Body Mass Index and Prognosis of Colorectal Cancer: A Meta-Analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies

Studies have reported conflicting results on the association between body mass index (BMI) and prognosis of colorectal cancer. Therefore, we have conducted a meta-analysis of prospective studies, which examined the association of pre- and post-diagnostic BMI with colorectal cancer-specific mortality and all-cause mortality in patients with colorectal cancer. We searched Medline and EMBASE database published between 1970 and September 2014. A total of 508 articles were identified, of which 16 prospective cohort studies were included for the current meta-analysis. The analysis included 58,917 patients who were followed up over a period ranging from 4.9 to 20 years (median: 9.9 years). We found that being underweight before cancer diagnosis was associated with increased all-cause mortality (Relative risk [RR]: 1.63, 95% CI: 1.18–2.23, p < 0.01) and being obese (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m²) before cancer diagnosis was associated with increased colorectal cancer-specific mortality (RR: 1.22, 95% CI: 1.003–1.35, p < 0.01) and all-cause mortality (RR: 1.25, 95% CI: 1.14–1.36, p < 0.01). On the other hand, being underweight (RR: 1.33, 95% CI: 1.20–1.47, p < 0.01), obese (RR: 1.08, 95% CI: 1.03–1.3, p < 0.01), and class II/III obese (BMI ≥ 35 kg/m²; RR: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.04–1.23, p < 0.01) after diagnosis were associated with significantly increased all-cause mortality. Being obese prior to diagnosis of colorectal cancer was associated with increased colorectal cancer-specific mortality and all-cause mortality, whereas being obese after diagnosis was associated with increased all-cause mortality. The associations with being underweight may reflect reverse causation. Maintaining a healthy body weight should be discussed with colorectal cancer survivors.     

Resting Heart Rate and Risk of Cardiovascular Diseases and All-Cause Death: The Kailuan Study

Background

Resting heart rate (RHR) predicts both cardiovascular and noncardiovascular death in different populations. However, the results of the association between RHR and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are inconsistent, especially for each subtype of CVDs.

Objective

The aim of this study was to prospectively explore the relationship between RHR and CVDs including myocardial infarction (MI), ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke and all-cause death in a general population.

Methods

The Kailuan study is a prospective longitudinal cohort study on cardiovascular risk factors and cardiovascular or cerebrovascular events. Hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using Cox regression modeling.

Results

We analyzed 92,562 participants (18–98 years old) in the Kailuan Study. CVDs were developed in 1,903 people during follow-ups. In multivariate analysis with adjustment for major traditional cardiovascular risk factors, HRs of the highest quintile group compared with the lowest quintile group of RHR for all-cause CVDs, MI, any stroke, ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, and all-cause death were 1.03 (95% CI, 0.98–1.07), 1.10 (95% CI, 1.01–1.20), 1.01 (95% CI, 0.97–1.06), 1.02 (95% CI, 0.96–1.07), 1.01 (95% CI, 0.92–1.11) and 1.18, (95% CI, 1.13–1.23), respectively.

Conclusions

The elevated RHR was independently associated with the increased risk for MI and all-cause death, but not for all-cause CVDs, any stroke, ischemic stroke, nor hemorrhagic stroke. This indicates that the elevated RHR might be a risk marker for MI and all-cause death in general populations.     

Anthropometric markers of obesity and mortality in white and African American adults: The pennington center longitudinal study

Objective:

The purpose of this study was to determine the association between anthropometric measures of obesity and all‐cause mortality in white and African American men and women.

Design and Methods:

The sample included 14,343 adults 18‐89 years of age. Height, weight, and waist and hip circumferences were measured, and the BMI (kg m^?2), body adiposity index (BAI = ([hip circumference in centimeters]/[height in meters])^1.5 – 18), waist‐to‐height ratio (WHtR) and waist‐to‐hip ratio (WHR) were computed. Vital status of the participants was determined from linkage with the National Death Index through 2009. Cox regression was used to assess the association between anthropometry and all‐cause mortality, adjusting for age, sex, year of baseline examination, study code, smoking status, alcohol consumption and physical activity. Hazard ratios (HR) are expressed per standard deviation of each variable.

Results:

A total of 438 deaths occurred during 120,637 person‐years of follow‐up. All anthropometric markers demonstrated significant associations with all‐cause mortality in white subjects. In multivariable‐adjusted models, BMI (HR 1.34; 95% CI: 1.19‐1.50), waist circumference (1.41; 1.25‐1.60), BAI (1.34; 1.17‐1.53), WHtR (1.46; 1.28‐1.65), and WHR (1.40; 1.23‐1.61) all demonstrated significant relationships with mortality in white participants, but not in African Americans. In categorical analyses, there was a significant association between BMI status and mortality in whites but not African Americans. However, the risk associated with elevated waist circumference was similar in whites (1.49; 1.15‐1.94) and African Americans (1.60; 1.06‐2.40).

Conclusion:

In summary, this study has demonstrated race differences in the association between anthropometry and all‐cause mortality.

     

Depression as a Risk Factor for Mortality in Individuals with Diabetes: A Meta-Analysis of Prospective Studies

Objective

To quantify the impact of depression measured by self-reports and depression measured by clinical interview on all-cause mortality in individuals with diabetes and to analyze the strength of both associations, the influence of covariates, and possible differences between studies assessing self-rated depressive symptoms and those using a clinical interview to measure depression as predictors of mortality.

Research Design and Methods

PUBMED and PsycINFO were searched up to July 2013 for prospective studies assessing depression, diabetes and mortality. The pooled hazard ratios were calculated using random-effects models.

Results

Sixteen studies met the inclusion criteria. After adjustment for demographic variables depression measured by self-reports was associated with an increased all-cause mortality risk (pooled HR = 2.56, 95% CI 1.89–3.47), and the mortality risk remained high after additional adjustment for diabetes complications (HR = 1.76, 95% CI 1.45–2.14,). Six studies reporting adjusted HRs for depression measured by clinical interviews supported the results of the other models (HR = 1.49, 95% CI 1.15–1.93).

Conclusions

Both depression measured by self-report and depression measured by clinical interview have an unfavorable impact on mortality in individuals with diabetes. The results, however, are limited by the heterogeneity of the primary studies. It remains unclear whether self-reports or clinical interviews for depression are the more precise predictor.     

Serum Potassium Levels and Its Variability in Incident Peritoneal Dialysis Patients: Associations with Mortality

Background

Abnormal serum potassium is associated with an increased risk of mortality in dialysis patients. However, the impacts of serum potassium levels on short- and long-term mortality and association of potassium variability with death in peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients are uncertain.

Methods

We examined mortality-predictability of serum potassium at baseline and its variability in PD patients treated in our center January 2006 through December 2010 with follow-up through December 2012. The hazard ratios (HRs) were used to assess the relationship between baseline potassium levels and short-term (≤1 year) as well as long-term (>1 year) survival. Variability of serum potassium was defined as the coefficient of variation of serum potassium (CVSP) during the first year of PD.

Results

A total of 886 incident PD patients were enrolled, with 248 patients (27.9%) presented hypokalemia (serum potassium <3.5 mEq/L). During a median follow-up of 31 months (range: 0.5–81.0 months), adjusted all-cause mortality hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for baseline serum potassium of <3.0, 3.0 to <3.5, 3.5 to <4.0, 4.5 to <5.0, and ≥5.0 mEq/L, compared with 4.0 to <4.5 (reference), were 1.79 (1.02–3.14), 1.15 (0.72–1.86), 1.31 (0.82–2.08), 1.33 (0.71–2.48), 1.28 (0.53–3.10), respectively. The increased risk of lower potassium with mortality was evident during the first year of follow-up, but vanished thereafter. Adjusted all-cause mortality HR for CVSP increments of 7.5% to <12.0%; 12.0% to <16.7% and ≥16.7%, compared with <7.5% (reference), were 1.35 (0.67–2.71), 2.00 (1.05–3.83) and 2.18 (1.18–4.05), respectively. Similar association was found between serum potassium levels and its variability and cardiovascular mortality.

Conclusions

A lower serum potassium level was associated with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality during the first year of follow-up in incident PD patients. In addition, higher variability of serum potassium levels conferred an increased risk of death in this population.     

Body Mass Index and Mortality in Non-Hispanic Black Adults in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study

Background

Although the prevalence of obesity (body mass index, kg/m², BMI ≥30) is higher in non-Hispanic blacks than in non-Hispanic whites, the relation of BMI to total mortality in non-Hispanic blacks is not well defined.

Purpose

We investigated the association between BMI and total mortality in 16,471 non-Hispanic blacks in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study, a prospective cohort of adults aged 50–71 years.

Methods

During an average of 13 years of follow-up, 2,609 deaths were identified using the Social Security Administration Death Master File and the National Death Index. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate relative risks and two-sided 95% confidence intervals (CI), adjusting for potential confounders.

Results

Among individuals with no history of cancer or heart disease at baseline and had a BMI of 20 or greater, the relative risk for total death was 1.12 (95% CI:1.05, 1.19, for a 5-unit increase in BMI) in men and 1.09 (95% CI:1.03, 1.15) in women. Among never smokers with no history of cancer or heart disease at baseline, relative risks for total death for BMI 25–<30, 30–<35, 35–<40, and 40–50, compared with BMI 20–<25, were 1.27 (95% CI: 0.91, 1.78), 1.56 (95% CI: 1.07, 2.28), 2.48 (95% CI: 1.53, 4.05), and 2.80 (95% CI: 1.46, 5.39), respectively, in men and 0.78 (95% CI: 0.59, 1.04), 1.17 (95% CI: 0.88, 1.57), 1.35 (95% CI: 0.96, 1.90), and 1.93 (95% CI: 1.33, 2.81), respectively, in women.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that overweight is related to an increased risk of death in black men, but not in black women, while obesity is related to an increased risk of death in both black men and women. A large pooled analysis of existing studies is needed to systematically evaluate the association between a wide range of BMIs and total mortality in blacks.     

Blood Lead Levels and Cause-Specific Mortality of Inorganic Lead-Exposed Workers in South Korea

The objective of this study was to identify the association of blood lead level (BLL) with mortality in inorganic lead-exposed workers of South Korea. A cohort was compiled comprising 81,067 inorganic lead exposed workers working between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2004. This cohort was merged with the Korean National Statistical Office to follow-up for mortality between 2000 and 2008. After adjusting for age and other carcinogenic metal exposure, all-cause mortality (Relative risk [RR] 1.36, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03–1.79), digestive disease (RR 3.23, 95% CI 1.33–7.86), and intentional self-harm (RR 2.92, 95% CI 1.07–7.81) were statistically significantly higher in males with BLL >20 μg/dl than of those with BLL ≤10μg/dl. The RR of males with BLL of 10–20 μg/dl was statistically higher than of those with BLL ≤10μg/dl in infection (RR 3.73. 95% CI, 1.06–13.06). The RRs of females with 10–20 μg/dl BLL was statistically significantly greater than those with BLL <10μg/dl in all-cause mortality (RR 1.93, 95% CI 1.16–3.20) and colon and rectal cancer (RR 13.42, 95% CI 1.21–149.4). The RRs of females with BLL 10–20 μg/dl (RR 10.45, 95% CI 1.74–62.93) and BLL ≥20 μg/dl (RR 12.68, 95% CI 1.69–147.86) was statistically significantly increased in bronchus and lung cancer. The increased suicide of males with ≥20 μg/dl BLLs, which might be caused by major depression, might be associated with higher lead exposure. Also, increased bronchus and lung cancer mortality in female workers with higher BLL might be related to lead exposure considering low smoking rate in females. The kinds of BLL-associated mortality differed by gender.     

Prognostic Value of Obesity on Both Overall Mortality and Cardiovascular Disease in the General Population

Background

Obesity represents an important health problem and its association with cardiovascular risk factors is well-known. The aim of this work was to assess the correlation between obesity and mortality (both, all-cause mortality and the combined variable of all-cause mortality plus the appearance of a non-fatal first cardiovascular event) in a general population sample from the south-east of Spain.

Materials and Methods

This prospective cohort study used stratified and randomized two-stage sampling. Obesity [body mass index (BMI) ≥30 kg/m²] as a predictive variable of mortality and cardiovascular events was assessed after controlling for age, sex, cardiovascular disease history, high blood pressure, diabetes mellitus, hypercholesterolemia, high-density lipoprotein/triglycerides ratio, total cholesterol and smoking with the Cox regression model.

Results

The mean follow-up time of the 1,248 participants was 10.6 years. The incidence of all-cause mortality during this period was 97 deaths for every 10,000 person/years (95% CI: 80–113) and the incidence of all-cause mortality+cardiovascular morbidity was 143 cases for every 10,000 person/years (95% CI: 124–163). A BMI ≥35 kg/m² yielded a hazard ratio for all-cause mortality of 1.94 (95% CI: 1.11–3.42) in comparison to non-obese subjects (BMI <30 kg/m²). For the combination of cardiovascular morbidity plus all-cause mortality, a BMI ≥35 kg/m² had a hazard ratio of 1.84 (95% CI: 1.15–2.93) compared to non-obese subjects.

Conclusions

A BMI ≥35 kg/m² is an important predictor of both overall mortality and of the combination of cardiovascular morbidity plus all-cause mortality.     

Body Mass Index,High-Sensitivity C-Reactive Protein and Mortality in Chinese with Coronary Artery Disease

Background

To investigate single and joint associations of body mass index (BMI) and serum high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) with death.

Methods

The study included 1871 coronary artery disease (CAD) patients aged 40–85 year-old recruited from 2008 to 2011. Cox regression models were used to estimate the association of BMI and hsCRP with mortality. The data was analyzed in 2014.

Results

During 3.1 years follow-up, 141 deaths were recorded, 110 died of cardiovascular disease (CVD). After adjustment of major CVD risk factors, there was a J-shaped association between BMI and all-cause and CVD mortality, and a positive association between hsCRP and mortality. The J-shaped association of BMI with mortality was present among patients who never smoked or with elevated hsCRP (≥3.0 mg/L). Compared with overweight (BMI 24–27.9 kg/m²) patients with normal hsCRP (<3.0 mg/L), obese patients (BMI≥28 kg/m²) with elevated hsCRP had a 3.41-fold risk of all-cause mortality (95% CI 1.49–7.80) and a 3.50-fold risk of CVD mortality (1.40–8.75), lean patients (BMI<24 kg/m²) with elevated hsCRP concentration had a 2.54-fold risk of all-cause mortality (1.36–4.74) and a 2.36-fold risk of CVD mortality (1.19–4.70).

Conclusions

The association pattern between baseline BMI and mortality changed among different baseline hsCRP concentrations, indicating that low-grade inflammation may be related to BMI and secondary prognosis of CAD.     

Predictive Value of Carotid Distensibility Coefficient for Cardiovascular Diseases and All-Cause Mortality: A Meta-Analysis

AimsThe aim of the present study is to determine the pooled predictive value of carotid distensibility coefficient (DC) for cardiovascular (CV) diseases and all-cause mortality.BackgroundArterial stiffness is associated with future CV events. Aortic pulse wave velocity is a commonly used predictor for CV diseases and all-cause mortality; however, its assessment requires specific devices and is not always applicable in all patients. In addition to the aortic artery, the carotid artery is also susceptible to atherosclerosis, and is highly accessible because of the surficial property. Thus, carotid DC, which indicates the intrinsic local stiffness of the carotid artery and may be determined using ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging, is of interest for the prediction. However, the role of carotid DC in the prediction of CV diseases and all-cause mortality has not been thoroughly characterized, and the pooled predictive value of carotid DC remains unclear.MethodsA meta-analysis, which included 11 longitudinal studies with 20361 subjects, was performed.ResultsCarotid DC significantly predicted future total CV events, CV mortality and all-cause mortality. The pooled risk ratios (RRs) of CV events, CV mortality and all-cause mortality were 1.19 (1.06–1.35, 95%CI, 9 studies with 18993 subjects), 1.09 (1.01–1.18, 95%CI, 2 studies with 2550 subjects) and 1.65 (1.15–2.37, 95%CI, 6 studies with 3619 subjects), respectively, for the subjects who had the lowest quartile of DC compared with their counterparts who had higher quartiles. For CV events, CV mortality and all-cause mortality, a decrease in DC of 1 SD increased the risk by 13%, 6% and 41% respectively, whereas a decrease in DC of 1 unit increased the risk by 3%, 1% and 6% respectively.ConclusionsCarotid DC is a significant predictor of future CV diseases and all-cause mortality, which may facilitate the identification of high-risk patients for the early diagnosis and prompt treatment of CV diseases.     

Predictive Power of a Body Shape Index for Development of Diabetes,Hypertension, and Dyslipidemia in Japanese Adults: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Background/Objectives

Recently, a body shape index (ABSI) was reported to predict all-cause mortality independently of body mass index (BMI) in Americans. This study aimed to evaluate whether ABSI is applicable to Japanese adults as a predictor for development of diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidemia.

Subjects/Methods

We evaluated the predictive power of ABSI in a retrospective cohort study using annual health examination data from Chiba City Hall in Japan, for the period 2008 to 2012. Subjects included 37,581 without diabetes, 23,090 without hypertension, and 20,776 without dyslipidemia at baseline who were monitored for disease incidence for 4 years. We examined the associations of standardized ABSI, BMI, and waist circumference (WC) at baseline with disease incidence by logistic regression analyses. Furthermore, we conducted a case-matched study using the propensity score matching method.

Results

Elevated BMI, WC, and ABSI increased the risks of diabetes and dyslipidemia [BMI-diabetes: odds ratio (OR) = 1.26, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) = 1.20−1.32; BMI-dyslipidemia: OR = 1.15, 95%CI = 1.12−1.19; WC-diabetes: OR = 1.24, 95%CI = 1.18−1.31; WC-dyslipidemia: OR = 1.15, 95%CI = 1.11−1.19; ABSI-diabetes: OR = 1.06, 95%CI = 1.01−1.11; ABSI-dyslipidemia: OR = 1.04, 95%CI = 1.01−1.07]. Elevated BMI and WC, but not higher ABSI, also increased the risk of hypertension [BMI: OR = 1.32, 95%CI = 1.27−1.37; WC: OR = 1.22, 95%CI = 1.18−1.26; ABSI: OR = 1.00, 95%CI = 0.97−1.02]. Areas under the curve (AUCs) in regression models with ABSI were significantly smaller than in models with BMI or WC for all three diseases. In case-matched subgroups, the power of ABSI was weaker than that of BMI and WC for predicting the incidence of diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidemia.

Conclusions

Compared with BMI or WC, ABSI was not a better predictor of diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidemia in Japanese adults.