Probabilistic reconstruction of ancestral protein sequences

Using a maximum-likelihood formalism, we have developed a method with which to reconstruct the sequences of ancestral proteins. Our approach allows the calculation of not only the most probable ancestral sequence but also of the probability of any amino acid at any given node in the evolutionary tree. Because we consider evolution on the amino acid level, we are better able to include effects of evolutionary pressure and take advantage of structural information about the protein through the use of mutation matrices that depend on secondary structure and surface accessibility. The computational complexity of this method scales linearly with the number of homologous proteins used to reconstruct the ancestral sequence.     

A maximum likelihood approach to the detection of selection from a phylogeny

Summary A large amount of information is contained within the phylogentic relationships between species. In addition to their branching patterns it is also possible to examine other aspects of the biology of the species. The influence that deleterious selection might have is determined here. The likelihood of different phylogenies in the presence of selection is explored to determine the properties of such a likelihood surface. The calculation of likelihoods for a phylogeny in the presence and absence of selection, permits the application of a likelihood ratio test to search for selection. It is shown that even a single selected site can have a strong effect on the likelihood. The method is illustrated with an example fromDrosophila melanogaster and suggests that delerious selection may be acting on transposable elements.     

The mouse skull as a source of morphometric data for phylogeny inference

Brownian motion has been a model widely used for describing phenotypic evolution of continuous characters under random drift. Evolution of traits evolving under weak stabilizing selection, together with drift, can also be modeled by the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, in which a population moves at random on an adaptive peak under the influence of drift with selection returning the population towards the optimum. Obviously, reliability of an evolutionary model stands or falls with the extent to which the underlying assumptions are supported or violated. Another potential problem of continuous characters as a source of data for phylogeny inference is the correlation between them. To assess whether the Brownian motion model or the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model are suitable for modeling the evolution of continuous cranial and dental characters and to what extent these characters are correlated with one another, 11 measurements encompassing various aspects of the mouse skull morphology were collected and subjected to a comparative analysis using the generalized least squares method. It could be shown that only about one-half of the characters evolved according to the Brownian motion model or the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model. Moreover, about 44% of the correlation coefficients exceeded 0.8, suggesting a need for removing at least phenotypic covariances from the data prior to a phylogenetic analysis. Finally, ancestral states of the characters under study were estimated with the generalized least square method. There has been a general trend towards enlarging the overall size of the skull and increasing the braincase volume in the species of the genus Mus.     

Systematics and morphological evolution within the moss family Bryaceae: a comparison between parsimony and Bayesian methods for reconstruction of ancestral character states

The Bryaceae are a large cosmopolitan moss family including genera of significant morphological and taxonomic complexity. Phylogenetic relationships within the Bryaceae were reconstructed based on DNA sequence data from all three genomic compartments. In addition, maximum parsimony and Bayesian inference were employed to reconstruct ancestral character states of 38 morphological plus four habitat characters and eight insertion/deletion events. The recovered phylogenetic patterns are generally in accord with previous phylogenies based on chloroplast DNA sequence data and three major clades are identified. The first clade comprises Bryum bornholmense, B. rubens, B. caespiticium, and Plagiobryum. This corroborates the hypothesis suggested by previous studies that several Bryum species are more closely related to Plagiobryum than to the core Bryum species. The second clade includes Acidodontium, Anomobryum, and Haplodontium, while the third clade contains the core Bryum species plus Imbribryum. Within the latter clade, B. subapiculatum and B. tenuisetum form the sister clade to Imbribryum. Reconstructions of ancestral character states under maximum parsimony and Bayesian inference suggest fourteen morphological synapomorphies for the ingroup and synapomorphies are detected for most clades within the ingroup. Maximum parsimony and Bayesian reconstructions of ancestral character states are mostly congruent although Bayesian inference shows that the posterior probability of ancestral character states may decrease dramatically when node support is taken into account. Bayesian inference also indicates that reconstructions may be ambiguous at internal nodes for highly polymorphic characters.     

Reconstruction of ancestral nucleotide sequences and estimation of substitution frequencies in a star phylogeny

Maximum likelihood phylogeny reconstruction methods are widely used in uncovering and assessing the evolutionary history and relationships of natural systems. However, several simplifying assumptions commonly made in this analysis limit the explanatory power of the results obtained. We present an algorithm that performs the phylogenetic analysis without making the common assumptions for sequence data from at least three leaf nodes in a star phylogeny. In particular, the underlying nucleotide substitution model does not have to be reversible and may include neighbor-dependent processes like the CpG methylation deamination process (CpG-effect). The base composition of the sequences at the external nodes and the one of the ancestral sequence may be different from each other and they do not have to be stationary state distributions of the corresponding substitution model. The algorithm is able to reconstruct the ancestral base composition and accurately estimate substitution frequencies in the branches of the star phylogeny. Extensive tests on simulated data validate the very favorable performance of the algorithm. As an application we present the analysis of aligned genomic sequences from human, mouse, and dog. Different substitution pattern can be observed in the three lineages.     

Ancestral sequence reconstruction in primate mitochondrial DNA: compositional bias and effect on functional inference

Reconstruction of ancestral DNA and amino acid sequences is an important means of inferring information about past evolutionary events. Such reconstructions suggest changes in molecular function and evolutionary processes over the course of evolution and are used to infer adaptation and convergence. Maximum likelihood (ML) is generally thought to provide relatively accurate reconstructed sequences compared to parsimony, but both methods lead to the inference of multiple directional changes in nucleotide frequencies in primate mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA). To better understand this surprising result, as well as to better understand how parsimony and ML differ, we constructed a series of computationally simple "conditional pathway" methods that differed in the number of substitutions allowed per site along each branch, and we also evaluated the entire Bayesian posterior frequency distribution of reconstructed ancestral states. We analyzed primate mitochondrial cytochrome b (Cyt-b) and cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI) genes and found that ML reconstructs ancestral frequencies that are often more different from tip sequences than are parsimony reconstructions. In contrast, frequency reconstructions based on the posterior ensemble more closely resemble extant nucleotide frequencies. Simulations indicate that these differences in ancestral sequence inference are probably due to deterministic bias caused by high uncertainty in the optimization-based ancestral reconstruction methods (parsimony, ML, Bayesian maximum a posteriori). In contrast, ancestral nucleotide frequencies based on an average of the Bayesian set of credible ancestral sequences are much less biased. The methods involving simpler conditional pathway calculations have slightly reduced likelihood values compared to full likelihood calculations, but they can provide fairly unbiased nucleotide reconstructions and may be useful in more complex phylogenetic analyses than considered here due to their speed and flexibility. To determine whether biased reconstructions using optimization methods might affect inferences of functional properties, ancestral primate mitochondrial tRNA sequences were inferred and helix-forming propensities for conserved pairs were evaluated in silico. For ambiguously reconstructed nucleotides at sites with high base composition variability, ancestral tRNA sequences from Bayesian analyses were more compatible with canonical base pairing than were those inferred by other methods. Thus, nucleotide bias in reconstructed sequences apparently can lead to serious bias and inaccuracies in functional predictions.     

Marginalized transition models and likelihood inference for longitudinal categorical data

Marginal generalized linear models are now frequently used for the analysis of longitudinal data. Semiparametric inference for marginal models was introduced by Liang and Zeger (1986, Biometrics 73, 13-22). This article develops a general parametric class of serial dependence models that permits likelihood-based marginal regression analysis of binary response data. The methods naturally extend the first-order Markov models of Azzalini (1994, Biometrika 81, 767-775) and prove computationally feasible for long series.     

Efficient maximum likelihood pedigree reconstruction

A simple and efficient algorithm is presented for finding a maximum likelihood pedigree using microsatellite (STR) genotype information on a complete sample of related individuals. The computational complexity of the algorithm is at worst (O(n³2ⁿ)), where n is the number of individuals. Thus it is possible to exhaustively search the space of all pedigrees of up to thirty individuals for one that maximizes the likelihood. A priori age and sex information can be used if available, but is not essential. The algorithm is applied in a simulation study, and to some real data on humans.     

Estimation of hominoid phylogeny from a DNA hybridization data set

Summary Analysis of the expanded data set of Sibley and Ahlquist (1987) on primate phylogeny using a maximum likelihood mixed model analysis of variance method shows that there is significant evidence for resolving theHomo-Pan-Gorilla trifurcation in favor of aHomo-Pan clade. The resulting tree is close to that estimated by Sibley and Ahlquist (1984). The mixed model can be used to test a number of hypotheses about the existence of components of variance and the linearity of the relationship between branch length and expected distance. No evidence is found that there is a variance component for extract, or for the individual from which the extract was taken. A variance component for experiment does seem to exist, presumably arising as a result of error of measurement of the common standard from which all values in the same experiment were substracted. There is significant evidence that the relationship between total branch length between species and their expected distances is nonlinear, or else that the measurement error on larger distances is greater than on smaller ones. Allowing for the nonlinearity might cause one to infer the time of distant common ancestors as less remote than the measured hybridization values would imply if used directly.     

A simulated annealing algorithm for maximum likelihood pedigree reconstruction

The calculation of maximum likelihood pedigrees for related organisms using genotypic data is considered. The problem is formulated so that the domain of optimization is a permutation space. This is a feature shared by the travelling salesman problem, for which simulated annealing is known to be effective. Using this technique it is found that pedigrees can be reconstructed with minimal error using genotypic data of a quality currently realizable. In complex pedigrees accurate reconstruction can be done with no a priori age or sex information. For smaller numbers of individuals a method of efficiently enumerating all admissible pedigrees of nonzero likelihood is given.     

Probability distribution of molecular evolutionary trees: A new method of phylogenetic inference

A new method is presented for inferring evolutionary trees using nucleotide sequence data. The birth-death process is used as a model of speciation and extinction to specify the prior distribution of phylogenies and branching times. Nucleotide substitution is modeled by a continuous-time Markov process. Parameters of the branching model and the substitution model are estimated by maximum likelihood. The posterior probabilities of different phylogenies are calculated and the phylogeny with the highest posterior probability is chosen as the best estimate of the evolutionary relationship among species. We refer to this as the maximum posterior probability (MAP) tree. The posterior probability provides a natural measure of the reliability of the estimated phylogeny. Two example data sets are analyzed to infer the phylogenetic relationship of human, chimpanzee, gorilla, and orangutan. The best trees estimated by the new method are the same as those from the maximum likelihood analysis of separate topologies, but the posterior probabilities are quite different from the bootstrap proportions. The results of the method are found to be insensitive to changes in the rate parameter of the branching process. Correspondence to: Z. Yang     

The mitogenomes of three beetles (Coleoptera: Polyphaga: Cucujiformia): New gene rearrangement and phylogeny

The mitochondrial genome (mitogenome) has been extensively used for studying phylogenetic relationships at different taxonomic levels. Several molecular analyses have been performed, but the phylogenetic relationships among infraorders in Polyphaga have not been well resolved. In this work, three nearly complete mitogenomes of Coleoptera, Sitophilus oryzae, Oryzaephilus surinamensis and Callosobruchus chinensis, were determined. The O. surinamensis and S. oryzae mitogenomes harbor gene content typical of other Polyphaga mitogenomes, while a gene rearrangement (trnQ) was found in the C. chinensis mitogenome. The mitogenomes of these three Coleoptera species each consist of approximately 13 protein-coding genes, 22 tRNA genes, two rRNA genes and one A + T-rich region. Phylogenetic analysis within Polyphaga was carried out based on mitochondrial data. The phylogenetic results within Polyphaga support the basal position of Cyphon sp., which belonged to Scirtoidea, Elateriformia. Within Cucujiformia, monophyletic Curculionoidea, Chrysomeloidea and Tenebrionoidea were confirmed.     

Statistical inference for serial dilution assay data

Serial dilution assays are widely employed for estimating substance concentrations and minimum inhibitory concentrations. The Poisson-Bernoulli model for such assays is appropriate for count data but not for continuous measurements that are encountered in applications involving substance concentrations. This paper presents practical inference methods based on a log-normal model and illustrates these methods using a case application involving bacterial toxins.     

Evolution of the trypanorhynch tapeworms: Parasite phylogeny supports independent lineages of sharks and rays

Trypanorhynch tapeworms (Platyhelminthes: Cestoda) are among the most diverse and abundant groups of metazoan parasites of elasmobranchs and are a ubiquitous part of the marine food webs that include these apex predators. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of their phylogeny, character evolution and host associations based on 10 years of sampling effort, including representatives of 12 of 15 and 44 of 66 currently recognized trypanorhynch families and genera, respectively. Using a combination of ssrDNA and lsrDNA (Domains 1-3) for 79 and 80 taxa, respectively, we maintain one-to-one correspondence between molecules and morphology by scoring 45 characters from the same specimens used for sequencing, and provide museum vouchers for this material. Host associations are examined through likelihood-based ancestral character state reconstructions (ACSRs) and by estimating dates of divergence using strict and relaxed molecular clock models in a Bayesian context. Maximum parsimony and Bayesian inference analyses of rDNA produced well-resolved and strongly supported trees in which the trypanorhynchs formed two primary lineages and were monophyletic with respect to the diphyllidean outgroup taxa. These lineages showed marked differences in their rates of divergence which in turn resulted in differing support and stability characteristics within the lineages. Mapping of morphological characters onto the tree resulting from combined analysis of rDNA showed most traits to be highly plastic, including some previously considered of key taxonomic importance such as underlying symmetries in tentacular armature. The resulting tree was found to be congruent with the most recent morphologically based superfamily designations in the order, providing support for four proposed superfamilies, but not for the Tentacularioidea and Eutetrarhynchoidea. ACSRs based on the combined analysis of rDNA estimated the original hosts of the two primary parasite lineages to be alternatively rajiform batoids and carcharhiniform sharks. This fundamental split provides independent support for rejecting the notion that rays are derived sharks, and thus supports the most recent molecular phylogenies of the Neoselachii. Beyond the basal split between shark- and ray-inhabiting lineages, no pattern was found to suggest that the trypanorhynchs have closely tracked the evolutionary histories of these host lineages, but instead, it appears that host-switching has been common and that the subsequent evolution of the parasites has been ecologically driven primarily through overlap in the niches of their shark and ray hosts. Using a relaxed molecular clock model calibrated by means of host fossil data, the ray-inhabiting lineage is estimated to have diversified around the Jurassic-Cretaceous boundary, whereas the shark-inhabiting lineage is estimated to have diversified later, in the Middle Cretaceous. Although the large error associated with the estimated divergence dates prevents robust conclusions from being drawn, the dates are nevertheless found to be consistent in a relative sense with the origins of their major hosts groups. The erection and definition of the suborders Trypanobatoida and Trypanoselachoida, for the major clades of trypanorhynchs parasitizing primarily rays and sharks, respectively, is proposed for the two primary lineages recovered here.     

最大似然法和贝叶斯推论与似然比检验探讨泽泻目系统发育关系

应用最大似然法(ML)、贝叶斯推论(BI)、邻接法(NJ)和似然比检验(hLRTs)进行泽泻目分子系统学研究。所用的rbcL基因序列代表了泽泻目14科46属以及作为外类群的6相关属。研究结果表明,*等级制似然比检验表明泽泻目rbcL序列最适合的DNA进化模型为GTR+I+G,最大似然法、贝叶斯法和邻接法构建的系统发育树拓扑结构相似,没有显著的差异,但贝叶斯树支持率较高;泽泻目为一单系类群,由两个主要谱系分支构成,深层分布格局由5个主要分支构成。基于分子系统发育树,文中对泽泻目科间、水鳖科+茨藻科、泽泻科+花蔺科+黄花蔺科、和"Cymodoeaceae complex"的系统发育关系进行了讨论。研究结果还表明,泽泻目系统发育关系可能还需要更多的证据进一步的澄清。     

Independent contrasts succeed where ancestor reconstruction fails in a known bacteriophage phylogeny

Abstract.— Methods of ancestor reconstruction are important tools for evolutionary inference that are difficult to test empirically because ancestral states are rarely known with certainty. We evaluated reconstruction methods for continuous phenotypic characters using taxa from an experimentally generated bacteriophage phylogeny. Except for one slowly evolving character, the estimated ancestral states of continuous phenotypic characters were highly inaccurate and biased, even when including a known ancestor at the root. This error was caused by a directional trend in character evolution and by rapid rates of character evolution. Computer simulations confirmed that such factors affect reconstruction of continuous characters in general. We also used phenotypic viral characters to evaluate two methods that attempt to estimate the correlation between characters during evolution. Whereas a nonphylogenetic regression was relatively inaccurate and biased, independent contrasts accurately estimated the correlation between characters with little bias.     

Joint reconstruction of divergence times and life-history evolution in placental mammals using a phylogenetic covariance model

Violation of the molecular clock has been amply documented, and is now routinely taken into account by molecular dating methods. Comparative analyses have revealed a systematic component in rate variation, relating it to the evolution of life-history traits, such as body size or generation time. Life-history evolution can be reconstructed using Brownian models. However, the resulting estimates are typically uncertain, and potentially sensitive to the underlying assumptions. As a way of obtaining more accurate ancestral trait and divergence time reconstructions, correlations between life-history traits and substitution rates could be used as an additional source of information. In this direction, a Bayesian framework for jointly reconstructing rates, traits, and dates was previously introduced. Here, we apply this model to a 17 protein-coding gene alignment for 73 placental taxa. Our analysis indicates that the coupling between molecules and life history can lead to a reevaluation of ancestral life-history profiles, in particular for groups displaying convergent evolution in body size. However, reconstructions are sensitive to fossil calibrations and to the Brownian assumption. Altogether, our analysis suggests that further integrating inference of rates and traits might be particularly useful for neontological macroevolutionary comparative studies.