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1.
Biological populations are susceptible to random variation in environmental influences such as temperature and moisture. This variability (or noise) can determine population size and, ultimately, cause extinctions. Extinction risk depends on noise colour or the amount of short- and long-term variation. Most environmental noise is reddened: the variation is dominated by long-term fluctuations. Recent modelling has shown that moderately reddened noise affects populations differently from the white noise used in earlier studies. However, some geophysical phenomena, such as temperature and river height, can have deeply reddened ''brown'' or even ''black'' spectra. We find that, compared to environments characterized by red noise, very long population persistence times are more likely for black noise. Unlike previous work incorporating a simple autoregressive model of reddened noise, our model suggests that the large variation associated with persistence in a red-noise environment limits our ability to predict the fate of particular populations subject to this noise colour. Thus, we identify the colour of noise experienced by a population (red or black) as a crucial factor in any attempt to manage or conserve that population.  相似文献   

2.
Correlations between the activities of neighboring neurons are observed ubiquitously across systems and species and are dynamically regulated by several factors such as the stimulus'' spatiotemporal extent as well as by the brain''s internal state. Using the electrosensory system of gymnotiform weakly electric fish, we recorded the activities of pyramidal cell pairs within the electrosensory lateral line lobe (ELL) under spatially localized and diffuse stimulation. We found that both signal and noise correlations were markedly reduced (>40%) under the latter stimulation. Through a network model incorporating key anatomical features of the ELL, we reveal how activation of diffuse parallel fiber feedback from granule cells by spatially diffuse stimulation can explain both the reduction in signal as well as the reduction in noise correlations seen experimentally through independent mechanisms. First, we show that burst-timing dependent plasticity, which leads to a negative image of the stimulus and thereby reduces single neuron responses, decreases signal but not noise correlations. Second, we show trial-to-trial variability in the responses of single granule cells to sensory input reduces noise but not signal correlations. Thus, our model predicts that the same feedback pathway can simultaneously reduce both signal and noise correlations through independent mechanisms. To test this prediction experimentally, we pharmacologically inactivated parallel fiber feedback onto ELL pyramidal cells. In agreement with modeling predictions, we found that inactivation increased both signal and noise correlations but that there was no significant relationship between magnitude of the increase in signal correlations and the magnitude of the increase in noise correlations. The mechanisms reported in this study are expected to be generally applicable to the cerebellum as well as other cerebellum-like structures. We further discuss the implications of such decorrelation on the neural coding strategies used by the electrosensory and by other systems to process natural stimuli.  相似文献   

3.
Over repeat presentations of the same stimulus, sensory neurons show variable responses. This “noise” is typically correlated between pairs of cells, and a question with rich history in neuroscience is how these noise correlations impact the population''s ability to encode the stimulus. Here, we consider a very general setting for population coding, investigating how information varies as a function of noise correlations, with all other aspects of the problem – neural tuning curves, etc. – held fixed. This work yields unifying insights into the role of noise correlations. These are summarized in the form of theorems, and illustrated with numerical examples involving neurons with diverse tuning curves. Our main contributions are as follows. (1) We generalize previous results to prove a sign rule (SR) — if noise correlations between pairs of neurons have opposite signs vs. their signal correlations, then coding performance will improve compared to the independent case. This holds for three different metrics of coding performance, and for arbitrary tuning curves and levels of heterogeneity. This generality is true for our other results as well. (2) As also pointed out in the literature, the SR does not provide a necessary condition for good coding. We show that a diverse set of correlation structures can improve coding. Many of these violate the SR, as do experimentally observed correlations. There is structure to this diversity: we prove that the optimal correlation structures must lie on boundaries of the possible set of noise correlations. (3) We provide a novel set of necessary and sufficient conditions, under which the coding performance (in the presence of noise) will be as good as it would be if there were no noise present at all.  相似文献   

4.
《Endocrine practice》2014,20(7):650-656
ObjectiveThe mean blood glucose (MBG) level obtained from self-monitored capillary glucose (SMCG) data is a readily available metric of glycemic control for patients and their physicians. However, whether there is agreement between SMCG MBG levels and MBG levels obtained from 24-hour intensive glucose sampling is unclear. Therefore, we analyzed the relationship between MBG levels derived from SMCG data and glucose data derived from continuous glucose monitoring (CGM).MethodsSMCG and CGM were concurrently performed in 104 patients with diabetes and prediabetes over 3 to 6 days. MBG data obtained from SMCG and CGM were compared by standard correlation and Bland-Altman analyses.ResultsSMCG and CGM MBG data from the longest duration of sampling were highly correlated (r = 0.965; P < .001). Single-day MBG estimates from both sources were also highly correlated, with r values ranging from 0.833 to 0.927. A SMCG MBG level of 166.1 ± 55 mg/dL (derived from 14.1 ± 4.6 samples) tended to slightly underestimate the concurrent CGM MBG level of 171.1 ± 56.4 mg/dL (derived from 1,063 ± 283 samples). The SMCG MBG was within 30 mg/dL of the CGM MBG in 94.6% of patients and within 15 mg/dL in 67% of patients. The difference between the estimates tended to increase with increasing SD of the MBG obtained from CGM (r = 0.38; P < .0001).ConclusionMBG estimated from SMCG is a reasonable estimate of a patient’s CGM MBG over the same period of time and with caveats could be used as a practical guide for long-term glycemic control that can be considered in tandem with the patient’s hemoglobin A1c in endocrine practice. (Endocr Pract. 2014;20:650-656)  相似文献   

5.
The king penguin, Aptenodytes patagonicus, breeds without a nest in colonies of several thousands of birds. To be fed, the chick must recognize the parents in a particularly noisy environment using only vocal cues. The call an adult makes when seeking the chick is emitted at a high amplitude level. Nevertheless, it is transmitted in a colonial context involving the noise generated by the colony and the screening effect of the bodies, both factors reducing the signal-to-noise ratio. In addition, the adult call is masked by a background noise with similar amplitude and spectral and temporal characteristics, enhancing the difficulty for the chick in finding its parents. We calculate that the maximum distance from the caller at which its signal can be differentiated from the background noise (signal-to-noise ratio equal to 1) should not exceed 8 to 9 m in a feeding area. But our tests show that, in fact, chicks can discriminate between the parental call and calls from other adults at a greater distance, even when call intensity is well below that of the noise of simultaneous calls produced by other adults. This capacity to perceive and extract the call of the parent from the ambient noise and particularly from the calls of other adults, termed the ''cocktail-party effect'' in speech intelligibility tests, enhances the chick''s ability to find its parents.  相似文献   

6.
《Small Ruminant Research》2007,72(1-3):67-74
Two trials were conducted in ewes at late pregnancy and early lactation in order to evaluate the effects of substituting the moderate degradable protein of soy bean (SBM), with a low degradable protein of corn gluten meal (CGM), accordingly that both diets were calculated to provide equal truly digestible protein (PDI). At the first trial thirty multiparous ewes were examined in an 8-week study that started at parturition. Animals were fed in groups (15 ewes), with two isocaloric-isonitrogenous-isofibrous rations. Treatments were: (A) SBM, (B) CGM. Diets were different at PDIA/PDI ratio (0.52 versus 0.63). The second trial lasted 7 weeks, 5 weeks pre partum till 2 weeks post partum. Three rations were tested by the use of 48 pregnant ewes. Ewes were allotted to three equivalent groups: (A) SBM and wheat bran, (B) CGM and corn gluten feed, (C) CGM and corn gluten feed plus additional lysine (CGML). Data from both trials were analyzed as repeated measures. CGM compared to SBM decreased milk yield and fat corrected milk (FCM) yield (2.25 and 1.98 kg of milk; 2.47 and 2.17 kg of FCM), while tended to decrease milk's protein content (5.45 and 5.36%, for the SBM and CGM group). The daily production of fat, protein and lactose were higher in SBM than in CGM. CGM ration decreased body weight (BW) gain of ewes during late pregnancy and mean birth BW of litter, and also caused a 30% increase of abortions-dead births. CGM cannot totally replace SBM, in ewes’ diets at early lactation, because of the decrease in milk yield as well as the milk's protein content, even when equal PDI is provided, due to low lysine content. This trial has extended the knowledge from cattle, that supplementation of lysine, usually the first limiting amino acid, is also crucial in ewes during pregnancy and lactation.  相似文献   

7.
The generation of neural action potentials (spikes) is random but nevertheless may result in a rich statistical structure of the spike sequence. In particular, contrary to the popular renewal assumption of theoreticians, the intervals between adjacent spikes are often correlated. Experimentally, different patterns of interspike-interval correlations have been observed and computational studies have identified spike-frequency adaptation and correlated noise as the two main mechanisms that can lead to such correlations. Analytical studies have focused on the single cases of either correlated (colored) noise or adaptation currents in combination with uncorrelated (white) noise. For low-pass filtered noise or adaptation, the serial correlation coefficient can be approximated as a single geometric sequence of the lag between the intervals, providing an explanation for some of the experimentally observed patterns. Here we address the problem of interval correlations for a widely used class of models, multidimensional integrate-and-fire neurons subject to a combination of colored and white noise sources and a spike-triggered adaptation current. Assuming weak noise, we derive a simple formula for the serial correlation coefficient, a sum of two geometric sequences, which accounts for a large class of correlation patterns. The theory is confirmed by means of numerical simulations in a number of special cases including the leaky, quadratic, and generalized integrate-and-fire models with colored noise and spike-frequency adaptation. Furthermore we study the case in which the adaptation current and the colored noise share the same time scale, corresponding to a slow stochastic population of adaptation channels; we demonstrate that our theory can account for a nonmonotonic dependence of the correlation coefficient on the channel’s time scale. Another application of the theory is a neuron driven by network-noise-like fluctuations (green noise). We also discuss the range of validity of our weak-noise theory and show that by changing the relative strength of white and colored noise sources, we can change the sign of the correlation coefficient. Finally, we apply our theory to a conductance-based model which demonstrates its broad applicability.  相似文献   

8.
Dependence measures and tests for independence have recently attracted a lot of attention, because they are the cornerstone of algorithms for network inference in probabilistic graphical models. Pearson''s product moment correlation coefficient is still by far the most widely used statistic yet it is largely constrained to detecting linear relationships. In this work we provide an exact formula for the th nearest neighbor distance distribution of rank-transformed data. Based on that, we propose two novel tests for independence. An implementation of these tests, together with a general benchmark framework for independence testing, are freely available as a CRAN software package (http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/knnIndep). In this paper we have benchmarked Pearson''s correlation, Hoeffding''s , dcor, Kraskov''s estimator for mutual information, maximal information criterion and our two tests. We conclude that no particular method is generally superior to all other methods. However, dcor and Hoeffding''s are the most powerful tests for many different types of dependence.  相似文献   

9.
《Endocrine practice》2010,16(3):371-375
ObjectiveTo determine the benefits of personal con- tinuous glucose monitoring (CGM) outside of a controlled clinical trial in a single ambulatory diabetes clinic.MethodsIn this retrospective study, we reviewed medical records of all patients who began CGM in our university-based clinical practice between July 2006 and October 2008. Data pertaining to 1 year before initiation of CGM through January 2009 were collected. All patient visits were performed by any 1 of 7 board-certified endo- crinologists and/or 5 certified diabetes educators. A severe hypoglycemic event was considered to have occurred if the patient reported requiring assistance or losing conscious- ness, or if there was documentation from another source (eg, an emergency department visit). Analysis of the effect of CGM on hemoglobin A1c and occurrence of severe hypoglycemia was performed.ResultsA total of 117 patients initiated CGM between July 2006 and October 2008 and used CGM for at least 2 months (total experience on CGM, 1136 patient-months; average 9.7 months per patient). Mean age was 44.5 ± 12.8 years (range, 14.3-71.7 years), and average duration of dia- betes mellitus was 23.9 years. All patients were using insu- lin pumps before initiation of CGM, including 10 patients with type 2 diabetes. Sixty-eight patients (58%) had pre- existing hypoglycemia unawareness. Average hemoglobin A1c level for 1 year before CGM initiation was 7.6 ± 1.1%, and with CGM use it dropped to 7.2 ± 0.8% (P <.001). Forty-two patients had severe hypoglycemic events in the year before CGM use or during CGM use. Overall, CGM use was associated with a significant decrease in the rate of severe hypoglycemic episodes (odds ratio, 0.40; 95% confidence interval, 0.24-0.65).ConclusionsPersonal CGM, in a real-world setting, improves glucose control and reduces the rate of severe hypoglycemic episodes. (Endocr Pract. 2010;16:371-375)  相似文献   

10.
We have published extensively on the neurogenetics of brain reward systems with reference to the genes related to dopaminergic function in particular. In 1996, we coined “Reward Deficiency Syndrome” (RDS), to portray behaviors found to have gene-based association with hypodopaminergic function. RDS as a useful concept has been embraced in many subsequent studies, to increase our understanding of Substance Use Disorder (SUD), addictions, and other obsessive, compulsive, and impulsive behaviors. Interestingly, albeit others, in one published study, we were able to describe lifetime RDS behaviors in a recovering addict (17 years sober) blindly by assessing resultant Genetic Addiction Risk Score (GARS?) data only. We hypothesize that genetic testing at an early age may be an effective preventive strategy to reduce or eliminate pathological substance and behavioral seeking activity. Here, we consider a select number of genes, their polymorphisms, and associated risks for RDS whereby, utilizing GWAS, there is evidence for convergence to reward candidate genes. The evidence presented serves as a plausible brain-print providing relevant genetic information that will reinforce targeted therapies, to improve recovery and prevent relapse on an individualized basis. The primary driver of RDS is a hypodopaminergic trait (genes) as well as epigenetic states (methylation and deacetylation on chromatin structure). We now have entered a new era in addiction medicine that embraces the neuroscience of addiction and RDS as a pathological condition in brain reward circuitry that calls for appropriate evidence-based therapy and early genetic diagnosis and that requires further intensive investigation.  相似文献   

11.
BackgroundThe validity of continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) is well established in diabetic patients. CGM is also increasingly used for research purposes in normo-glycemic individuals, but the CGM validity in such individuals is unknown. We studied the accuracy of CGM measurements in normo-glycemic individuals by comparing CGM-derived versus venous blood-derived glucose levels and measures of glycemia and glycemic variability.MethodsIn 34 healthy participants (mean age 65.7 years), glucose was simultaneously measured every 10 minutes, via both an Enlite® CGM sensor, and in venous blood sampled over a 24-hour period. Validity of CGM-derived individual glucose measurements, calculated measures of glycemia over daytime (09:00h-23:00h) and nighttime (23:00h-09:00h), and calculated measures of glycemic variability (e.g. 24h standard deviation [SD]) were assessed by Pearson correlation coefficients, mean absolute relative difference (MARD) and paired t-tests.ResultsThe median correlation coefficient between CGM and venous glucose measurements per participant was 0.68 (interquartile range: 0.40–0.78), and the MARD was 17.6% (SD = 17%). Compared with venous sampling, the calculated measure of glycemia during daytime was 0.22 mmol/L higher when derived from CGM, but no difference was observed during nighttime. Most measures of glycemic variability were lower with CGM than with venous blood sampling (e.g., 24h SD: 1.07 with CGM and 1.26 with venous blood; p-value = 0.004).ConclusionIn normo-glycemic individuals, CGM-derived glucose measurements had good agreement with venous glucose levels. However, the measure of glycemia was higher during the day and most measures of glycemic variability were lower when derived from CGM.  相似文献   

12.
Cognitive problems are a major factor determining quality of life of patients with Parkinson''s disease. These include deficits in inhibitory control, ranging from subclinical alterations in decision-making to severe impulse control disorders. Based on preclinical studies, we proposed that Parkinson''s disease does not cause a unified disorder of inhibitory control, but rather a set of impulsivity factors with distinct psychological profiles, anatomy and pharmacology. We assessed a broad set of measures of the cognitive, behavioural and temperamental/trait aspects of impulsivity. Sixty adults, including 30 idiopathic Parkinson''s disease patients (Hoehn and Yahr stage I–III) and 30 healthy controls, completed a neuropsychological battery, objective behavioural measures and self-report questionnaires. Univariate analyses of variance confirmed group differences in nine out of eleven metrics. We then used factor analysis (principal components method) to identify the structure of impulsivity in Parkinson''s disease. Four principal factors were identified, consistent with four different mechanisms of impulsivity, explaining 60% of variance. The factors were related to (1) tests of response conflict, interference and self assessment of impulsive behaviours on the Barrett Impulsivity Scale, (2) tests of motor inhibitory control, and the self-report behavioural approach system, (3) time estimation and delay aversion, and (4) reflection in hypothetical scenarios including temporal discounting. The different test profiles of these four factors were consistent with human and comparative studies of the pharmacology and functional anatomy of impulsivity. Relationships between each factor and clinical and demographic features were examined by regression against factor loadings. Levodopa dose equivalent was associated only with factors (2) and (3). The results confirm that impulsivity is common in Parkinson''s disease, even in the absence of impulse control disorders, and that it is not a unitary phenomenon. A better understanding of the structure of impulsivity in Parkinson''s disease will support more evidence-based and effective strategies to treat impulsivity.  相似文献   

13.
The objectives of this study were to determine the chemical composition, energy content and amino acid digestibility for corn gluten meals (CGM) and to develop prediction equations for estimating energy content and amino acid digestibility for growing pigs based on the chemical characteristics of these meals. The 15 CGM tested were obtained from seven Chinese companies. Experiment 1 was conducted to determine the digestible (DE) and metabolisable energy (ME) of the 15 CGM. The 18 growing barrows (38 ± 4 kg) were assigned to three 6 × 6 Latin square designs. The 15 CGM test diets were formulated to contain 19.20% CGM, which replaced 20% of the energy supplied by corn and crystalline amino acid in the basal diet. Experiment 2 was conducted to determine the apparent (AID) and standardised (SID) ileal digestibility of the crude protein (CP) and amino acids in the 15 CGM using chromic oxide as an inert marker. The 18 growing barrows (25 ± 2 kg) fitted with a simple T-cannula were assigned to three 6 × 6 Latin square designs. The 15 test diets contained 35% of one of the 15 CGM as the sole source of amino acids in the diet. The results showed a considerable variation in the chemical composition of CGM within and among plants. On dry matter basis, the DE and ME content of the CGM ranged from 18.8 to 21.0 MJ/kg and from 18.0 to 19.9 MJ/kg, respectively. There were no significant differences in the AID and SID for CP, arginine, lysine, glycine and proline among the 15 CGM, however, for all the other amino acids, significant differences were found for their AID and SID. With R 2 values exceeding 0.50, the DE of CGM can be predicted accurately from CP and fibre content and ME from starch and fibre content. Suitable prediction equations for SID of methionine were also developed.  相似文献   

14.
张振宇  李小玉  孙浩 《生态学报》2019,39(8):2911-2921
地表蒸散是维持地球表面水量平衡和热量平衡的重要环节,SEBAL模型作为一种快速且有效的反演地表蒸散的遥感物理模型方法,在地表蒸散研究中得到广泛应用。地表反照率作为影响地表能量平衡的重要因素,同时也是SEBAL模型的重要输入参数,因此不同的地表反照率计算方法对SEBAL模型的反演结果有重要影响。以新疆三工河流域为研究区,利用Landsat8 OLI/TIRS数据,以应用最为广泛的Smith地表反照率计算法和Liang地表反照率计算法两种方法计算地表反照率,并输入SEBAL模型中反演日蒸散量,比较分析两种地表反照率计算方法对蒸散反演结果的影响,得出以下结论:(1)两种地表反照率计算方法下经SEBAL模型得到的日蒸散量与实测值拟合程度均较高,不同年份下线性拟合决定系数大于0.75,但是使用Smith方法计算出的地表反照率结合SEBAL模型得到的日蒸散量与实测值拟合程度更高;(2)通过RMSE等精度指标比较两种地表反照率计算方法下基于SEBAL模型反演的日蒸散量,结果显示,Smith地表反照率计算方法下反演的日蒸散量精度略高;(3)Smith地表反照率计算方法下最终得到的区域日均蒸散量高于使用Liang地表反照率计算方法最终得到的区域日均蒸散量,夏季差异最大,差异为0.64 mm/d,其他季节差异较小,差异约为0.2 mm/d。(4)进一步比较研究日内两种地表反照率计算方法得到的地表反照率,结果显示,Smith地表反照率计算法得到的地表反照率均值均小于同时期Liang地表反照率计算法得到的地表反照率均值。  相似文献   

15.

Objective

To construct a life-sized eye model using the three-dimensional (3D) printing technology for fundus viewing study of the viewing system.

Methods

We devised our schematic model eye based on Navarro''s eye and redesigned some parameters because of the change of the corneal material and the implantation of intraocular lenses (IOLs). Optical performance of our schematic model eye was compared with Navarro''s schematic eye and other two reported physical model eyes using the ZEMAX optical design software. With computer aided design (CAD) software, we designed the 3D digital model of the main structure of the physical model eye, which was used for three-dimensional (3D) printing. Together with the main printed structure, polymethyl methacrylate(PMMA) aspherical cornea, variable iris, and IOLs were assembled to a physical eye model. Angle scale bars were glued from posterior to periphery of the retina. Then we fabricated other three physical models with different states of ammetropia. Optical parameters of these physical eye models were measured to verify the 3D printing accuracy.

Results

In on-axis calculations, our schematic model eye possessed similar size of spot diagram compared with Navarro''s and Bakaraju''s model eye, much smaller than Arianpour''s model eye. Moreover, the spherical aberration of our schematic eye was much less than other three model eyes. While in off- axis simulation, it possessed a bit higher coma and similar astigmatism, field curvature and distortion. The MTF curves showed that all the model eyes diminished in resolution with increasing field of view, and the diminished tendency of resolution of our physical eye model was similar to the Navarro''s eye. The measured parameters of our eye models with different status of ametropia were in line with the theoretical value.

Conclusions

The schematic eye model we designed can well simulate the optical performance of the human eye, and the fabricated physical one can be used as a tool in fundus range viewing research.  相似文献   

16.
刘志广  张丰盘 《生态学报》2016,36(2):360-368
随着种群动态和空间结构研究兴趣的增加,激发了大量的有关空间同步性的理论和实验的研究工作。空间种群的同步波动现象在自然界广泛存在,它的影响和原因引起了很多生态学家的兴趣。Moran定理是一个非常重要的解释。但以往的研究大多假设环境变化为空间相关的白噪音。越来越多的研究表明很多环境变化的时间序列具有正的时间自相关性,也就是说用红噪音来描述更加合理。因此,推广经典的Moran效应来处理空间相关红噪音的情形很有必要。利用线性的二阶自回归过程的种群模型,推导了两种群空间同步性与种群动态异质性和环境变化的时间相关性(即环境噪音的颜色)之间的关系。深入分析了种群异质性和噪音颜色对空间同步性的影响。结果表明种群动态异质性不利于空间同步性,但详细的关系比较复杂。而红色噪音的同步能力体现在两方面:一方面,本身的相关性对同步性有贡献;另一方面,环境变化时间相关性可以通过改变种群密度依赖来影响同步性,但对同步性的影响并无一致性的结论,依赖于种群的平均动态等因素。这些结果对理解同步性的机理、利用同步机理来制定物种保护策略和害虫防治都有重要的意义。  相似文献   

17.
Given the extraordinary ability of humans and animals to recognize communication signals over a background of noise, describing noise invariant neural responses is critical not only to pinpoint the brain regions that are mediating our robust perceptions but also to understand the neural computations that are performing these tasks and the underlying circuitry. Although invariant neural responses, such as rotation-invariant face cells, are well described in the visual system, high-level auditory neurons that can represent the same behaviorally relevant signal in a range of listening conditions have yet to be discovered. Here we found neurons in a secondary area of the avian auditory cortex that exhibit noise-invariant responses in the sense that they responded with similar spike patterns to song stimuli presented in silence and over a background of naturalistic noise. By characterizing the neurons'' tuning in terms of their responses to modulations in the temporal and spectral envelope of the sound, we then show that noise invariance is partly achieved by selectively responding to long sounds with sharp spectral structure. Finally, to demonstrate that such computations could explain noise invariance, we designed a biologically inspired noise-filtering algorithm that can be used to separate song or speech from noise. This novel noise-filtering method performs as well as other state-of-the-art de-noising algorithms and could be used in clinical or consumer oriented applications. Our biologically inspired model also shows how high-level noise-invariant responses could be created from neural responses typically found in primary auditory cortex.  相似文献   

18.
Aim The study examined the potential for change in biome representation within Canada's national park system under multiple climate change scenarios and subsequent potential vulnerabilities in Parks Canada policy and planning frameworks. Location The study was conducted for Canada's 39 national parks. Methods The vegetation change scenarios were based on modelling results from the BIOME3 and MAPSS equilibrium process‐based global vegetation models (GVM), run with multiple doubled‐CO2 climate change scenarios. The six vegetation distribution scenarios were calculated at 0.5° latitude–longitude resolution and the boundaries of 39 national parks superimposed in a geographic information system (GIS). Park management plans and other planning documents were also reviewed as part of the analysis. Results The proportional distribution of biomes in Canada's national park system was very similar (within 3% of area for each biome) using BIOME3 and MAPSS under the current climate. Regardless of the GVM and climate change scenario used, the modelling results suggest the potential for substantial change in the biome representation in Canada's national park system. In five of six vegetation scenarios, a novel biome type appeared in more than half of the national parks and greater than 50% of all vegetation grid boxes changed biome type. The proportional representation of tundra and taiga/tundra in the national park system declined in each of the vegetation scenarios, while more southerly biomes (temperate forests and savanna/woodland) increased (in some scenarios doubling to quadrupling). Results for boreal forest varied among the climate change scenarios. A range of potential vulnerabilities in existing policy and planning frameworks were identified, including the national park system plan, individual park objectives, and fire and exotic species management plans. Conclusions Climate change represents an unprecedented challenge to Parks Canada and its ability to achieve its conservation mandate as presently legislated. Research is needed not only on ecosystem responses to climate change, but also on the capacity of conservation systems and agencies to adapt to climate change.  相似文献   

19.
OBJECTIVE--To compare the Jarman index with alternative deprivation measures with regard to its usefulness to district health authorities as an indicator of need at small area level. DESIGN--The Jarman index (UPA (8)), Townsend''s index of material deprivation, the Scottish Development Department''s index, the Department of the Environment''s basic index, and unemployment rates were compared in respect of their correlation with measures of morbidity by electoral ward in a typical English district health authority. Measures of morbidity comprised standardised mortality ratios, admission rates (standardised and non-standardised), and permanent sickness rates. Spearman rank correlation coefficients were calculated for each combination of measures and were then ranked for each of the deprivation indices. SETTING--The 59 electoral wards of the Central Nottinghamshire Health Authority. RESULTS--The Jarman index consistently ranked lower in respect of its correlation with measures of morbidity than did the other deprivation measures. Current unemployment rates correlated well with morbidity measures, in particular with hospital admission rates, with correlations ranging from 0.669 to 0.830 for average and standardised all age admission rates. CONCLUSIONS--The Jarman index seems to be the least appropriate of these indices for health authority use. Unemployment rate merits further consideration as a simple, up to date marker for deprivation and consequent need for health service provision.  相似文献   

20.
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