Wolverines and declining snowpack: response to comments

The critiques by DeVink et al. (2010) and McKelvey et al. (2010) are flawed for several reasons. We show here that, contrary to what DeVink et al. claim, the influence of annual pelt price on wolverine harvest returns is essentially negligible. DeVink et al. also suggest that our results show the influence of snowpack on trapper success, rather than on actual wolverine population dynamics. This is unlikely, since most of the snowpack terms in our models are at 1- or 2-year time lags, whereas the impact of snow conditions on trapper success can only manifest in the current year. Both DeVink et al. and McKelvey et al. claim that wolverine populations across Canada are actually increasing, but provide no quantitative data to support this claim. Both sets of authors present alternative explanations for the declines in harvest returns, but none of those explanations are mutually exclusive with our own, and none can explain the significance of time-lagged snowpack on annual harvest returns. McKelvey et al.’s claim that our results represent a spurious correlation, as well as other points that they raise, suggests either a superficial understanding or deliberate misrepresentation of our methods and can simply reflect their underlying philosophical biases.     

Comments on Brodie and Post: Climate-driven declines in wolverine populations: causal connection or spurious correlation?

The recent paper by Brodie and Post (“Nonlinear responses of wolverine populations to declining winter snowpack”, Popul Ecol 52:279–287, 2010) reports conclusions that are unsupportable, in our opinion, due to both mis-interpretations of current knowledge regarding the wolverine’s (Gulo gulo) association with snow, and the uncritical use of harvest data to index wolverine populations. The authors argue that, because the wolverine is a snow-dependent species, average annual provincial snowfall, based on weather station data, can be expected to correlate strongly and positively with wolverine population numbers, which in turn can be accurately indexed by trapper harvests. Thus, correlations between declines in wolverine harvests and declining average snowpack are interpreted to reflect a climate-driven decrease in wolverine populations. This conclusion overstates the nature of the wolverine’s association with snow, and makes unsupportable assumptions about the reliability of harvest data as a proxy for population size.     

新疆貂熊种群初步调查

正貂熊(Gulo gulo)属食肉目,鼬科,貂熊属。此种有两个亚种,分别为古北亚种(G.g.gulo)和新北亚种(G.g.luscus)。新北亚种分布在北美北部地区;古北亚种分布在欧亚大陆,我国分布为此亚种(朴仁珠和张明海,2000)。貂熊主要栖息在高山、苔原、泰加林、北方森林区域、沼泽等环境(Mitchell-Jones et al.,1999)。目前,欧洲种群     

Genetic structure of North American wolverine (Gulo gulo) populations

Wolverines (Gulo gulo) are found in low densities throughout their circumpolar distribution. They are also potentially susceptible to human-caused population fragmentation (development, recreation and fur harvesting). The combination of these factors has contributed to this species being listed as having either vulnerable or endangered status across much of its current range. The effects of inherently low densities and anthropogenic pressures on the genetic structure and variation of wolverine populations are, as yet, unknown. In this study, 461 individuals were typed at 12 microsatellite loci to investigate the population genetic structure of wolverines from north-western Alaska to eastern Manitoba. Levels of gene flow and population differentiation among the sampled regions were estimated via a genotype assignment test, pairwise F(ST), and two genetic distance measures. Our results suggest that wolverine populations from southernmost regions, in which anthropogenic factors are strongest, revealed more genetic structuring than did northern populations. Furthermore, these results suggest that reductions in this species' range may have led to population fragmentation in the extreme reaches of its southern distribution. The continued reduction of suitable habitat for this species may lead to more populations becoming isolated remnants of a larger distribution of northern wolverines, as documented in other North American carnivore species.     

Nonlinear effects in macromolecular assembly and dosage sensitivity

Haploinsufficiency refers to dominant abnormal phenotypes resulting from the absence of substantial activity from one allele at a normally diploid locus. Haploinsufficiency may also result from an altered stoichiometry in a macromolecular complex. Higher-than-diploid levels of a gene product can also induce abnormalities that may even resemble the haploinsufficient phenotype. Here, I explore possible non-linearities in the assembly of multimeric molecules from the perspective of dose effects. I propose that for any oligomer assembly reaction, there may be a set of conditions (initial subunit concentrations and equilibrium constants) such that changing the input concentration of one component (0.5 x or 1.5x) will lead to a minimum and non-proportional change of the final oligomer concentration. This buffer effect is a general property of multimeric systems in equilibrium and can be, in principle, exploited by selection to diminish dosage sensitivity. Other effects involving cooperativity or sequential assembly may also play a role in palliating the effect of changes in input amounts of monomers.     

Demographic effects of extreme winter weather in the barn owl

Extreme weather events can lead to immediate catastrophic mortality. Due to their rare occurrence, however, the long-term impacts of such events for ecological processes are unclear. We examined the effect of extreme winters on barn owl (Tyto alba) survival and reproduction in Switzerland over a 68-year period (∼20 generations). This long-term data set allowed us to compare events that occurred only once in several decades to more frequent events. Winter harshness explained 17 and 49% of the variance in juvenile and adult survival, respectively, and the two harshest winters were associated with major population crashes caused by simultaneous low juvenile and adult survival. These two winters increased the correlation between juvenile and adult survival from 0.63 to 0.69. Overall, survival decreased non-linearly with increasing winter harshness in adults, and linearly in juveniles. In contrast, brood size was not related to the harshness of the preceding winter. Our results thus reveal complex interactions between climate and demography. The relationship between weather and survival observed during regular years is likely to underestimate the importance of climate variation for population dynamics.     

The effects of climate change on the phenology of selected Estonian plant, bird and fish populations

This paper summarises the trends of 943 phenological time-series of plants, fishes and birds gathered from 1948 to 1999 in Estonia. More than 80% of the studied phenological phases have advanced during springtime, whereas changes are smaller during summer and autumn. Significant values of plant and bird phases have advanced 5–20 days, and fish phases have advanced 10–30 days in the spring period. Estonia’s average air temperature has become significantly warmer in spring, while at the same time a slight decrease in air temperature has been detected in autumn. The growing season has become significantly longer in the maritime climate area of Western Estonia. The investigated phenological and climate trends are related primarily to changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) during the winter months. Although the impact of the winter NAOI on the phases decreases towards summer, the trends of the investigated phases remain high. The trends of phenophases at the end of spring and the beginning of summer may be caused by the temperature inertia of the changing winter, changes in the radiation balance or the direct consequences of human impacts such as land use, heat islands or air pollution.     

Climate change and coral reef connectivity

This review assesses and predicts the impacts that rapid climate change will have on population connectivity in coral reef ecosystems, using fishes as a model group. Increased ocean temperatures are expected to accelerate larval development, potentially leading to reduced pelagic durations and earlier reef-seeking behaviour. Depending on the spatial arrangement of reefs, the expectation would be a reduction in dispersal distances and the spatial scale of connectivity. Small increase in temperature might enhance the number of larvae surviving the pelagic phase, but larger increases are likely to reduce reproductive output and increase larval mortality. Changes to ocean currents could alter the dynamics of larval supply and changes to planktonic productivity could affect how many larvae survive the pelagic stage and their condition at settlement; however, these patterns are likely to vary greatly from place-to-place and projections of how oceanographic features will change in the future lack sufficient certainty and resolution to make robust predictions. Connectivity could also be compromised by the increased fragmentation of reef habitat due to the effects of coral bleaching and ocean acidification. Changes to the spatial and temporal scales of connectivity have implications for the management of coral reef ecosystems, especially the design and placement of marine-protected areas. The size and spacing of protected areas may need to be strategically adjusted if reserve networks are to retain their efficacy in the future.     

A review of indicators of climate change for use in Ireland

Impact indicators are systems/organisms, the vitality of which alters in response to changes in environmental condition. The indicators assessed in this review fall within the impact category of the driver-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) framework. Instrumental records have shown unequivocal changes in climatic conditions over the past 30 years at a global level but impact indicators allow these changes to be monitored at a finer resolution. Our main aim was to review sets of indicators of climate change currently used in various countries and to make recommendations for their use in the Irish environment. We review a preliminary set of climate change impact indicators in five sectors: agriculture; plant and animal distribution patterns; phenology; palaeoecology and human health. Currently, the most effective impact indicators of climate change have proved to be phenological observations of tree developmental stages. The strongest factor limiting the use of indicators is the lack of long-term data sets from which a climatic signal can be extracted.     

Climate change, conservation and management: an assessment of the peer-reviewed scientific journal literature

Recent reviews of the conservation literature indicate that significant biases exist in the published literature regarding the regions, ecosystems and species that have been examined by researchers. Despite the global threat of climatic change, similar biases may be occurring within the sub-discipline of climate-change ecology. Here we hope to foster critical thought and discussion by considering the directions taken by conservation researchers when addressing climate change. To form a quantitative basis for our perspective, we assessed 248 papers from the climate change literature that considered the conservation management of biodiversity and ecosystems. We found that roughly half of the studies considered climate change in isolation from other threatening processes. We also found that the majority of surveyed scientific publications were conducted in the temperate forests of Europe and North America. Regions such as Latin America that are rich in biodiversity but may have low adaptive capacity to climate change were not well represented. We caution that such biases in research effort may be distracting our attention away from vulnerable regions, ecosystems and species. Specifically we suggest that the under-representation of research from regions low in adaptive capacity and rich in biodiversity requires international collaboration by those experienced in climate-change research, with researchers from less wealthy nations who are familiar with local issues, ecosystems and species. Furthermore, we caution that the propensity of ecologists to work in essentially unmodified ecosystems may fundamentally hamper our ability to make useful recommendations in a world that is experiencing significant global change.     

气候变化对鸟类影响：长期研究的意义

过去一个多世纪全球气候发生了明显变化,地球表面温度正在逐渐变暖。已有大量研究结果表明,鸟类已经在种群动态变化、生活史特性以及地理分布范围等方面对全球气候变化作出了相应的反应。根据全球范围内气候变化对鸟类影响的研究资料,尤其是北美和欧洲的一些长期研究项目的成果,综述了气候变化对鸟类分布范围、物候、繁殖和种群动态变化等方面的可能影响。这些长期研究项目为探讨气候变化在个体和种群的水平上如何长时间地影响鸟类提供了独特的机会,对未来中国鸟类学研究也会有所裨益。     

Spring bloom succession,grazing impact and herbivore selectivity of ciliate communities in response to winter warming

This study aimed at simulating different degrees of winter warming and at assessing its potential effects on ciliate succession and grazing-related patterns. By using indoor mesocosms filled with unfiltered water from Kiel Bight, natural light and four different temperature regimes, phytoplankton spring blooms were induced and the thermal responses of ciliates were quantified. Two distinct ciliate assemblages, a pre-spring and a spring bloom assemblage, could be detected, while their formation was strongly temperature-dependent. Both assemblages were dominated by Strobilidiids; the pre-spring bloom phase was dominated by the small Strobilidiids Lohmaniella oviformis, and the spring bloom was mainly dominated by large Strobilidiids of the genus Strobilidium. The numerical response of ciliates to increasing food concentrations showed a strong acceleration by temperature. Grazing rates of ciliates and copepods were low during the pre-spring bloom period and high during the bloom ranging from 0.06 (Δ0°C) to 0.23 day⁻¹ (Δ4°C) for ciliates and 0.09 (Δ0°C) to 1.62 day⁻¹ (Δ4°C) for copepods. During the spring bloom ciliates and copepods showed a strong dietary overlap characterized by a wide food spectrum consisting mainly of Chrysochromulina sp., diatom chains and large, single-celled diatoms. Priority programme of the German Research Foundation—contribution 4.     

Temperature-related mortality in France, a comparison between regions with different climates from the perspective of global warming

This paper aims to explain the results of an observational population study that was carried out between 1991 and 1995 in six regions (departments) in France. The study was to assess the relationship between temperature and mortality in a few areas of France that offer widely varying climatic conditions and lifestyles, to determine their thermal optimum, defined as a 3 degrees C temperature band with the lowest mortality rate in each area, and then to compare the mortality rates from this baseline band with temperatures above and below the baseline. The study period was selected because it did not include extreme cold or hot events such as a heatwave. Data on daily deaths from each department were first used to examine the entire population and then to examine men, women, various age groups and various causes of death (respiratory disease, stroke, ischaemic heart disease, other disease of the circulatory system, and all other causes excluding violent deaths). Mean temperatures were provided by the National Weather Service. The results depicted an asymmetrical V- or U-shaped relationship between mortality and temperature, with a thermal optimum lower for the elderly, and generally lower for women than for men except in Paris. The relationship was also different depending on the cause of death. In all cases, more evidence was collected showing that cold weather was more deadly than hot weather, and it would now be interesting to enlarge the study to include years with cold spells and heatwaves. Furthermore, the results obtained could be of great use in estimating weather-related mortality as a consequence of future climate-change scenarios.     

Phenology responses of temperate butterflies to latitude depend on ecological traits

Global change influences species’ seasonal occurrence, or phenology. In cold‐adapted insects, the activity is expected to start earlier with a warming climate, but contradictory evidence exists, and the reactions may be linked to species‐specific traits. Using data from the GBIF database, we selected 105 single‐brooded Holarctic butterflies inhabiting broad latitudinal ranges. We regressed patterns of an adult flight against latitudes of the records, controlling for altitude and year effects. Species with delayed flight periods towards the high latitudes, or stable flight periods across latitudes, prevailed over those that advanced their flight towards the high latitudes. The responses corresponded with the species’ seasonality (flight of early season species was delayed and flight of summer species was advanced at high latitudes) and oceanic vs. continental climatic niches (delays in oceanic, stability in continental species). Future restructuring of butterfly seasonal patterns in high latitudes will reflect climatic niches, and hence the evolutionary history of participating species.     

The long summer: pre-wintering temperatures affect metabolic expenditure and winter survival in a solitary bee

The impact of climate change on insect populations depends on specific life cycle traits and physiological adaptations. The solitary bee Osmia lignaria winters as a pre-emergent adult, and requires a period of cold temperature for winter diapause completion. It is a univoltine species, and diapause induction does not depend on photoperiod. To understand the potential effects of longer summers on O. lignaria populations, we exposed individuals to three treatments simulating early, mid and late winter arrivals, and measured respiration rates, metabolic expenditure, weight loss, fat body depletion, lipid levels and winter mortality. The early-winter treatment disrupted diapause development, but had no apparent negative effects on fitness. In contrast, late-winter bees had a greater energetic expenditure (1.5-fold), weight (1.4-fold) and lipid (2-fold) loss, greater fat body depletion, and a 19% increase in mortality compared to mid-winter bees. We also monitored adult eclosion and arrival of winter temperatures under natural conditions in four years. We found a positive correlation between mean degree-day accumulation during pre-wintering (a measure of asynchrony between adult eclosion and winter arrival) and yearly winter mortality. Individually, bees experiencing greater degree-day accumulations exhibited reduced post-winter longevity. Timing of adult eclosion in O. lignaria is dependent on the duration of the prepupal period, which occurs in mid-summer, is also diapause-mediated, and is longer in populations from southerly latitudes. In a global warming scenario, we expect long summer diapause phenotypes to replace short summer diapause phenotypes, effectively maintaining short pre-wintering periods in spite of delayed winter arrivals.     

Meta‐analysis reveals complex marine biological responses to the interactive effects of ocean acidification and warming

Ocean acidification and warming are considered two of the greatest threats to marine biodiversity, yet the combined effect of these stressors on marine organisms remains largely unclear. Using a meta‐analytical approach, we assessed the biological responses of marine organisms to the effects of ocean acidification and warming in isolation and combination. As expected biological responses varied across taxonomic groups, life‐history stages, and trophic levels, but importantly, combining stressors generally exhibited a stronger biological (either positive or negative) effect. Using a subset of orthogonal studies, we show that four of five of the biological responses measured (calcification, photosynthesis, reproduction, and survival, but not growth) interacted synergistically when warming and acidification were combined. The observed synergisms between interacting stressors suggest that care must be made in making inferences from single‐stressor studies. Our findings clearly have implications for the development of adaptive management strategies particularly given that the frequency of stressors interacting in marine systems will be likely to intensify in the future. There is now an urgent need to move toward more robust, holistic, and ecologically realistic climate change experiments that incorporate interactions. Without them accurate predictions about the likely deleterious impacts to marine biodiversity and ecosystem functioning over the next century will not be possible.     

Differing effects of thermal stress on coral fertilization and early embryogenesis in four Indo Pacific species

Coral reefs are expected to be severely impacted by rising seawater temperatures associated with climate change. The fertilization and early embryogenesis of four reef-building coral species representing three Indo-Pacific families were examined in a series of laboratory experiments where temperatures were increased up to 5–6°C at ambient. High levels of fertilization and normal embryogenesis were observed for Favites abdita, Favites chinensis and Mycedium elephantotus at temperatures to 32°C (+5°C) and embryos developed normally until the 5th cell cleavage. Acropora millepora was the only species to be affected by higher temperatures, exhibiting significantly reduced fertilization and a higher frequency of embryonic abnormalities at 32°C (+4°C), and fertilization ceased altogether at 34°C (+6°C). Early cell cleavage rates increased with temperature up to 32°C for all species.     

Sensitivity of the carbon footprint of New Zealand milk to greenhouse gas metrics

Milk production is responsible for emitting a range of greenhouse gases (GHGs), mainly carbon dioxide (CO₂), nitrous oxide (N₂O) and methane (CH₄). In Life Cycle Assessments (LCA), the Global Warming Potential with a time horizon of 100 years (GWP100) is used almost universally to aggregate emissions of individual gases into so-called CO₂-equivalent emissions that are used to calculate the overall carbon footprint of milk production. However, there is growing awareness that, depending on the purpose of the LCA, metrics other than GWP100 could be justified and some would give a very different weighting for the short-lived gas CH₄ relative to the long-lived gases CO₂ and N₂O when calculating the carbon footprint. Pastoral dairy production systems at different levels of intensification differ in the balance of short- and long-lived GHGs associated with on- and off-farm emissions. Differences in the carbon footprint of different production systems could therefore be highly sensitive to the choice of GHG metric. Here we explore the extent to which alternative GHG metric choices would alter the carbon footprint of New Zealand milk production at different levels of intensification at national, regional and individual farm scales and compared to the carbon footprint of milk of selected European countries. We find that the ranking of different production systems and individual farms in terms of their carbon footprint is relatively robust against the choice of GHG metric, despite significant differences in their utilisation of pastures versus supplementary off-farm feed, fertiliser use and energy consumption at various stages of farm operations. However, there are instances where alternative GHG metric choices would fundamentally change the conclusions of LCA of different production systems, including whether a move towards higher or lower input systems would increase or decrease the average carbon footprint of milk production in New Zealand. Greater transparency about the implications of alternative GHG metrics for LCA, and the often inadvertent and implicit value judgements embedded in these metrics, would help ensure that policy decisions and consumer choices based on LCA indeed deliver the climate outcomes intended by end-users.