Methodology matters when estimating deer abundance: a global systematic review and recommendations for improvements

Deer (Cervidae) are key components of many ecosystems and estimating deer abundance or density is important to understanding these roles. Many field methods have been used to estimate deer abundance and density, but the factors determining where, when, and why a method was used, and its usefulness, have not been investigated. We systematically reviewed journal articles published during 2004–2018 to evaluate spatio-temporal trends in study objectives, methodologies, and deer abundance and density estimates, and determine how they varied with biophysical and anthropogenic attributes. We also reviewed the precision and bias of deer abundance estimation methods. We found 3,870 deer abundance and density estimates. Most estimates (58%) were for white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), red deer (Cervus elaphus), and roe deer (Capreolus capreolus). The 6 key methods used to estimate abundance and density were pedestrian sign (track or fecal) counts, pedestrian direct counts, vehicular direct counts, aerial direct counts, motion-sensitive cameras, and harvest data. There were regional differences in the use of these methods, but a general pattern was a temporal shift from using harvest data, pedestrian direct counts, and aerial direct counts to using pedestrian sign counts and motion-sensitive cameras. Only 32% of estimates were accompanied by a measure of precision. The most precise estimates were from vehicular spotlight counts and from capture–recapture analysis of images from motion-sensitive cameras. For aerial direct counts, capture–recapture methods provided the most precise estimates. Bias was robustly assessed in only 16 studies. Most abundance estimates were negatively biased, but capture–recapture methods were the least biased. The usefulness of deer abundance and density estimates would be substantially improved by 1) reporting key methodological details, 2) robustly assessing bias, 3) reporting the precision of estimates, 4) using methods that increase and estimate detection probability, and 5) staying up to date on new methods. The automation of image analysis using machine learning should increase the accuracy and precision of abundance estimates from direct aerial counts (visible and thermal infrared, including from unmanned aerial vehicles [drones]) and motion-sensitive cameras, and substantially reduce the time and cost burdens of manual image analysis.     

Estimating population density from indirect sign: track counts and the Formozov–Malyshev–Pereleshin formula

For many purposes it is often desirable to estimate animal population densities over large areas. Where total counts are not possible and sightings are relatively rare, a range of methods exists to estimate densities from indirect sign. Such methods are frequently unreliable and usually require independent calibration or confirmation. We present an analytical method for estimating population density from track counts. The method, widely known in the Russian Federation but not in the English language scientific literature, requires counts of tracks of known age, together with estimates of animal daily travel distances. We use simulations to verify the theoretical basis of the approach and to indicate potential precision that may be achieved. We illustrate application of the approach using a large data set on ungulate track counts in the Russian Far East. We suggest that under most circumstances, nonparametric bootstrapping will be the most appropriate method for deriving estimates of confidence intervals about density estimates. As with other approaches to estimating density from indirect sign, the method that we discuss is vulnerable to violations of an array of underlying assumptions. However, it is easily applied and could represent an important method by which the relationship between indices of abundance and absolute density can be understood.     

Distance models as a tool for modelling detection probability and density of native bumblebees

Effective monitoring of native bee populations requires accurate estimates of population size and relative abundance among habitats. Current bee survey methods, such as netting or pan trapping, may be adequate for a variety of study objectives but are limited by a failure to account for imperfect detection. Biases due to imperfect detection could result in inaccurate abundance estimates or erroneous insights about the response of bees to different environments. To gauge the potential biases of currently employed survey methods, we compared abundance estimates of bumblebees (Bombus spp.) derived from hierarchical distance sampling models (HDS) to bumblebee counts collected from fixed‐area net surveys (“net counts”) and fixed‐width transect counts (“transect counts”) at 47 early‐successional forest patches in Pennsylvania. Our HDS models indicated that detection probabilities of Bombus spp. were imperfect and varied with survey‐ and site‐covariates. Despite being conspicuous, Bombus spp. were not reliably detected beyond 5 m. Habitat associations of Bombus spp. density were similar across methods, but the strength of association with shrub cover differed between HDS and net counts. Additionally, net counts suggested sites with more grass hosted higher Bombus spp. densities whereas HDS suggested that grass cover was associated with higher detection probability but not Bombus spp. density. Density estimates generated from net counts and transect counts were 80%–89% lower than estimates generated from distance sampling. Our findings suggest that distance modelling provides a reliable method to assess Bombus spp. density and habitat associations, while accounting for imperfect detection caused by distance from observer, vegetation structure, and survey covariates. However, detection/non‐detection data collected via point‐counts, line‐transects and distance sampling for Bombus spp. are unlikely to yield species‐specific density estimates unless individuals can be identified by sight, without capture. Our results will be useful for informing the design of monitoring programs for Bombus spp. and other pollinators.     

Evaluation of three methods to estimate density and detectability from roadside point counts

Roadside point counts are often used to estimate trends of bird populations. The use of aural counts of birds without adjustment for detection probability, however, can lead to incorrect population trend estimates. We compared precision of estimates of density and detectability of whistling northern bobwhites (Colinus virginianus) using distance sampling, independent double-observer, and removal methods from roadside surveys. Two observers independently recorded each whistling bird heard, distance from the observer, and time of first detection at 362 call-count stops in Ohio. We examined models that included covariates for year and observer effects for each method and distance from observer effects for the double-observer and removal methods using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). The best model of detectability from distance sampling included observer and year effects. The best models from the removal and double-observer techniques included observer and distance effects. All 3 methods provided precise estimates of detection probability (CV = 2.4–4.4%) with a range of detectability of 0.44–0.95 for a 6-min survey. Density estimates from double-observer surveys had the lowest coefficient of variation (2005 = 3.2%, 2006 = 1.7%), but the removal method also provided precise estimates of density (2005 CV = 3.4%, 2006 CV = 4.8%), and density estimates from distance sampling were less precise (2005 CV = 9.6%, 2006 CV = 7.9%). Assumptions of distance sampling were violated in our study because probability of detecting bobwhites near the observer was <1 or the roadside survey points were not randomly distributed with respect to the birds. Distances also were not consistently recorded by individual members of observer pairs. Although double-observer surveys provided more precise estimates, we recommend using the removal method to estimate detectability and abundance of bobwhites. The removal method provided precise estimates of density and detection probability and requires half the personnel time as double-observer surveys. Furthermore, the likelihood of meeting model assumptions is higher for the removal survey than with independent double-observers. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

THE SYSTEMATIC POSITION OF THE SOUTH AFRICAN GANNET

Summary

Randall, R. M., Randall, B. M., Cooper, J. &; Frost, P. G. H. 1986: A new census method for penguins tested on Jackass Penguins Spheniscus demersus. Ostrich 57: 211–215

A census method for Jackass Penguins based on their moulting cycle is described. Population estimates were substantially higher with this method than with total counts, but were not dissimilar to maximum estimates obtained from strip counts. The moult method estimates the size of the entire population and is independent of the breeding cycle and breeding status of both individuals and population. It is not plagued by the problem of absenteeism encountered during most phases of the penguin annual cycle and is independent on their diel activity. The drawbacks to the method are that it is laborious and protracted, that it does not differentiate between the breeding population and the whole population, and is unsuited to some species and some habitats.     

A field test of the distance sampling method using Golden‐cheeked Warblers

ABSTRACT Criteria for delisting Golden‐cheeked Warblers (Dendroica chrysoparia) include protection of sufficient breeding habitat to ensure the continued existence of 1000 to 3000 singing males in each of eight recovery regions for ≥10 consecutive years. Hence, accurate abundance estimation is an integral component in the recovery of this species. I conducted a field test to determine if the distance sampling method provided unbiased abundance estimates for Golden‐cheeked Warblers and develop recommendations to improve the accuracy of estimates by minimizing the effects of violating this method's assumptions. To determine if observers could satisfy the assumptions that birds are detected at the point with certainty and at their initial locations, I compared point‐transect sampling estimates from 2‐, 3‐, 4‐, and 5‐min time intervals to actual abundance determined by intensive territory monitoring. Point‐transect abundance estimates were 15%, 29%, 43%, and 59% greater than actual abundance (N= 156) for the 2‐, 3‐, 4‐, and 5‐min intervals, respectively. Point‐transect sampling produced unbiased estimates of Golden‐cheeked Warbler abundance when counts were limited to 2 min (N= 154–207). Abundance estimates derived from point‐transect sampling were likely greater than actual abundance because observers did not satisfy the assumption that birds were detected at their initial locations due to the frequent movements and large territory sizes of male Golden‐cheeked Warblers. To minimize the effect of movement on abundance estimates, I recommend limiting counts of singing males to 2‐min per point. Counts for other species in similar habitats with similar behavior and movement patterns also should be limited to 2 min when unbiased estimates are important and conducting field tests of the point‐transect distance sampling method is not possible.     

Comparison and Assessment of Aerial and Ground Estimates of Waterbird Colonies

Abstract: Aerial surveys are often used to quantify sizes of waterbird colonies; however, these surveys would benefit from a better understanding of associated biases. We compared estimates of breeding pairs of waterbirds, in colonies across southern Louisiana, USA, made from the ground, fixed-wing aircraft, and a helicopter. We used a marked-subsample method for ground-counting colonies to obtain estimates of error and visibility bias. We made comparisons over 2 sampling periods: 1) surveys conducted on the same colonies using all 3 methods during 3–11 May 2005 and 2) an expanded fixed-wing and ground-survey comparison conducted over 4 periods (May and Jun, 2004–2005). Estimates from fixed-wing aircraft were approximately 65% higher than those from ground counts for overall estimated number of breeding pairs and for both dark and white-plumaged species. The coefficient of determination between estimates based on ground and fixed-wing aircraft was ≤0.40 for most species, and based on the assumption that estimates from the ground were closer to the true count, fixed-wing aerial surveys appeared to overestimate numbers of nesting birds of some species; this bias often increased with the size of the colony. Unlike estimates from fixed-wing aircraft, numbers of nesting pairs made from ground and helicopter surveys were very similar for all species we observed. Ground counts by one observer resulted in underestimated number of breeding pairs by 20% on average. The marked-subsample method provided an estimate of the number of missed nests as well as an estimate of precision. These estimates represent a major advantage of marked-subsample ground counts over aerial methods; however, ground counts are difficult in large or remote colonies. Helicopter surveys and ground counts provide less biased, more precise estimates of breeding pairs than do surveys made from fixed-wing aircraft. We recommend managers employ ground counts using double observers for surveying waterbird colonies when feasible. Fixed-wing aerial surveys may be suitable to determine colony activity and composition of common waterbird species. The most appropriate combination of survey approaches will be based on the need for precise and unbiased estimates, balanced with financial and logistical constraints. (JOURNAL OF WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT 72(3):697–706; 2008)     

A multispecies dependent double‐observer model: A new method for estimating multispecies abundance

Conservation of biological communities requires accurate estimates of abundance for multiple species. Recent advances in estimating abundance of multiple species, such as Bayesian multispecies N‐mixture models, account for multiple sources of variation, including detection error. However, false‐positive errors (misidentification or double counts), which are prevalent in multispecies data sets, remain largely unaddressed. The dependent‐double observer (DDO) method is an emerging method that both accounts for detection error and is suggested to reduce the occurrence of false positives because it relies on two observers working collaboratively to identify individuals. To date, the DDO method has not been combined with advantages of multispecies N‐mixture models. Here, we derive an extension of a multispecies N‐mixture model using the DDO survey method to create a multispecies dependent double‐observer abundance model (MDAM). The MDAM uses a hierarchical framework to account for biological and observational processes in a statistically consistent framework while using the accurate observation data from the DDO survey method. We demonstrate that the MDAM accurately estimates abundance of multiple species with simulated and real multispecies data sets. Simulations showed that the model provides both precise and accurate abundance estimates, with average credible interval coverage across 100 repeated simulations of 94.5% for abundance estimates and 92.5% for detection estimates. In addition, 92.2% of abundance estimates had a mean absolute percent error between 0% and 20%, with a mean of 7.7%. We present the MDAM as an important step forward in expanding the applicability of the DDO method to a multispecies setting. Previous implementation of the DDO method suggests the MDAM can be applied to a broad array of biological communities. We suggest that researchers interested in assessing biological communities consider the MDAM as a tool for deriving accurate, multispecies abundance estimates.     

Monitoring large herbivore diversity at different scales: comparing direct and indirect methods

Monitoring of large herbivores is central to research and management activities in many protected areas. Monitoring programs were originally developed to estimate (trends in) population sizes of individual species. However, emphasis is shifting increasingly towards conservation of diversity and communities instead of individual species, as a growing literature shows the importance of herbivore diversity for ecosystem functioning. We argue that the design of monitoring programs has not yet been adapted well to this new conservation paradigm. Using large herbivore census data from Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Park, South Africa, we studied how monitoring methodology (observational counts vs. dung counts) and spatial scale interact in influencing estimates of large herbivore species richness and diversity. Dung counts resulted in higher herbivore species richness and diversity estimates than direct observational counts, especially at finer monitoring resolutions (grid cells smaller than 25 km²). At monitoring resolutions coarser than 25 km² both methods gave comparable diversity estimates. The methods also yielded different spatial diversity estimates, especially at finer resolutions. Grid cells with high diversity according to the dung count data did not necessarily have high diversity according to the observational counts, as shown by low correlation of grid cell values of both methods. We discuss these results in the light of estimates of the sampling effort of each method and, hence, suggest new monitoring designs that are more suitable for tracking temporal and spatial trends in large herbivore diversity and community composition.     

Use of track counts and camera traps to estimate the abundance of roe deer in North-Eastern Italy: are they effective methods?

Population density of European roe deer Capreolus capreolus was estimated in six forest areas of North-Eastern Italy through the use of different methods. The most effective method to estimate a population density is always case-dependent and, thus, varies across study areas. Particularly, drive count and vantage point count estimates (i.e. counts by hunters) have been reported to be the most effective to assess deer densities in woodlands, but they require a high volunteer human presence, which limit their feasibility. Results of count by hunters were thus compared with estimates obtained through camera trapping and track counts. Surveys were all carried out between 2014 and 2015. The three-used method provided us with comparable density results, suggesting that they all may be applied in the study area. Track-count survey was shown to be—with equal effectiveness—the cheapest method to infer roe deer density in forest areas (i.e. near 28% cheaper than camera trapping). As to our study sites, we therefore suggest that the proposal of track-count method might provide wildlife managers with a cost-effective alternative to other count methods to estimate roe deer population density. However, it is noteworthy that track-count method may also lead to lower density estimates than the drive counts; an apparent difference in the accuracy between methods needs to be considered when choosing for a certain count method.     

Aerial survey of waterbirds on wetlands as a measure of river and floodplain health

1. This study highlights the use of waterbird communities as potential measures of river and floodplain health at a landscape scale. 2. The abundance and diversity of a waterbird community (54 species) was measured over 15 trips with four aerial and three ground counts per trip on a 300-ha lake in arid Australia. 3. Aerial survey estimates of individual species were significantly less precise (SE/mean) than ground counts across two (11–100 and > 1000) out of four abundance classes of waterbirds: 0–10, 11–100, 101–1000 and > 1000. Standard error/mean as a percentage decreased with increasing abundance from about 60% for the lowest abundance class to 18% for the largest abundance class. 4. Aerial survey estimates were negatively biased for species in numbers of less than 10 and greater than 5000 but unbiased compared to ground counts for other abundance classes. Aerial surveys underestimated numbers of waterbirds by 50% when there were 40 000 waterbirds. Three ground counts found about seven more waterbird species than four aerial surveys. One ground count took about 150 times longer than two aerial surveys and cost 14 times more. 5. Regression models were derived, comparing aerial survey estimates to ground counts for 31 of 36 species for which there were sufficient data. Aerial survey estimates were unbiased for most of these species (67%), negatively biased for six species and positively biased for one species. Estimates were negatively biased in species that occurred in small numbers or that dived in response to the aircraft. 6. River system health encompasses the state of floodplain wetlands. Waterbirds on an entire wetland or floodplain may be estimated by aerial survey of waterbirds; this is a coarse but effective measure of waterbird abundance. Aerial survey is considerably less costly than ground survey and potentially provides a method for measuring river and floodplain health over long periods of time at the same scale as river management.     

Effects of point‐count duration on estimated detection probabilities and occupancy of breeding birds

Increasingly, point‐count data are used to estimate occupancy, the probability that a species is present at a given location; occupancy accounts for imperfect detection, the probability that a species is detected given that it is present. To our knowledge, effects of sampling duration on inferences from models of bird occupancy have not been evaluated. Our objective was to determine whether changing count duration from 5 to 8 min affected inferences about the occupancy of birds sampled in the Chesapeake Bay Lowlands (eastern United States) and the central and western Great Basin (western United States) in 2012 and 2013. We examined the proportion of species (two doves, one cuckoo, two swifts, five hummingbirds, 11 woodpeckers, and 122 passerines) for which estimates of detection probability were ≥ 0.3. For species with single‐season detection probabilities ≥ 0.3, we compared occupancy estimates derived from 5‐ and 8‐min counts. We also compared estimates for three species sampled annually for 5 yr in the central Great Basin. Detection probabilities based on both the 5‐ and 8‐min counts were ≥ 0.3 for 40% ± 3% of the species in an ecosystem. Extending the count duration from 5 to 8 min increased the detection probability to ≥ 0.3 for 5% ± 0.5% of the species. We found no difference in occupancy estimates that were based on 5‐ versus 8‐min counts for species sampled over two or five consecutive years. However, for 97% of species sampled over 2 yr, precision of occupancy estimates that were based on 8‐min counts averaged 12% ± 2% higher than those based on 5‐min counts. We suggest that it may be worthwhile to conduct a pilot season to determine the number of locations and surveys needed to achieve detection probabilities that are sufficiently high to estimate occupancy for species of interest.     

Converting visual census data into absolute abundance estimates: a method for calibrating timed counts of a sedentary insect population

Abstract.  1. Visual surveys for small organisms on complex substrates often yield serious underestimates of true counts. When both visual counts (relative estimates of abundance) and absolute counts can be obtained from the same sample, however, the visual counts can be calibrated such that absolute estimates can be obtained in the future from visual surveys alone.
2. A method is presented for converting quick, timed, visual counts of a sedentary insect on a shrub into absolute estimates of abundance.
3. Analogies were drawn from simple, well-known predation theories to develop a two-parameter non-linear model. Parameter estimates were obtained by both inverse prediction and direct estimation methods; the latter were found to yield more accurate predictions of absolute abundance.
4. The calibration model is mechanistic in its approach, and thus has potential for application in other systems in which all individuals are visible, but able to be missed during timed counts.     

A quantitative electron microscope analysis of peripheral nerve in the urodele amphibian in relation to limb regenerative capacity

An approximate 1:1 ratio of myelinated to unmyelinated fibers was established in counts from electron micrograph montages in nerves of the newt, Triturus (Notophthalmus) viridescens. The number of myelinated fibers correspond to the number counted with the light microscope after osmium fixation. Light microscope counts of silver impregnated sections yielded a value slightly higher suggesting that, except for bundles of unmyelinated fibers, the silver technique revealed mainly myelinated fibers. The results were used to reassess previous quantitative studies on the relation between number of nerve fibers and the control which nerves exert on regeneration. For a truer estimate of the number of axons affecting regeneration, fiber values previously reported should now be doubled to include the large number of unmyelinated fibers. However, calculations show that the unmyelinated fibers contribute less than 3% of the total neuroplasm in the peripheral nerve. Finally, counts made of Schwann cells and fibroblasts show that the latter are few in number.     

Effect of count duration on abundance estimates of Black-capped Vireos

ABSTRACT.   Distance sampling applied to point count surveys (point transects) has become a common method for estimating the absolute abundance of birds. When conducting point transects, detections of focal species are typically recorded during a fixed time interval. However, count duration has varied among studies and the effect of such variation on the resulting abundance estimates is unclear. My objective was to examine the effect of count duration on abundance estimates of male Black-capped Vireos ( Vireo atricapilla ). The abundance of these vireos in a 349-ha area in central Texas was estimated using 3-, 5-, and 6-min point transects and results were then compared to actual number present as determined by banding and territory mapping. The 3-min counts provided an estimate that was 26% greater than the actual number of male Vireos present ( N = 201), but this number was within the corresponding 95% confidence interval ( N = 157–413). Confidence intervals for the 5- and 6-min counts did not include the actual number of vireos present. The shortest count duration may have provided the most accurate abundance estimate because male Black-capped Vireos are typically active, sing intermittently, and sometimes move tens of meters between songs. Thus, shorter-duration counts may also yield the most accurate abundance estimates for other species that exhibit similar behavior. However, because behavior varies among species, I recommend that investigators collect preliminary data to establish an appropriate count duration when accurate estimates of absolute, rather than relative, abundance are important.     

Development and field application of a quantitative method for examining natural assemblages of protists with oligonucleotide probes.

A fluorescent in situ hybridization method that uses rRNA-targeted oligonucleotide probes for counting protists in cultures and environmental water samples is described. Filtration, hybridization, and enumeration of fixed cells with biotinylated eukaryote-specific probes and fluorescein isothiocyanate-conjugated avidin were performed directly on 0.4-microns-pore-size polycarbonate filters of Transwell cell culture inserts (Costar Corp., Cambridge, Mass.). Counts of various species of cultured protists by this probe hybridization method were not significantly different from counts obtained by the 4',6-diamidino-2-phenylindole (DAPI) and acridine orange (AO) staining methods. However, counts of total nanoplankton (TNAN) based on probe hybridizations in several field samples and in samples collected from a mesocosm experiment were frequently higher than TNAN counts obtained by staining with DAPI or AO. On the basis of these results, 25 to 70% of the TNAN determined with probes were not detectable by DAPI or AO staining. The underestimation of TNAN abundances in samples stained with DAPI or AO was attributed to the existence of small nanoplanktonic cells which could be detected with probes but not DAPI or AO and the difficulty associated with distinguishing DAPI- or AO-stained protists attached to or embedded in aggregates. We conclude from samples examined in this study that enumeration of TNAN with oligonucleotide probes provides estimates of natural TNAN abundances that are at least as high as (and in some cases higher than) counts obtained with commonly employed fluorochrome stains. The quantitative in situ hybridization method we have described here enables the direct enumeration of free-living protists in water samples with oligonucleotide probes. When combined with species-specific probes, this method will enable quantitative studies of the abundance and distribution of specific protistan taxa.     

An Ocular Grid-Planimeter Method for Enumerating Nerve Fibers

The estimation of numbers of nerve fibers in cross sections of peripheral nerves containing both fine and large fiber components can be accomplished by using an ocular grid and selectively counting a known area. With the use of a projecting apparatus and planimeter, the total cross section area is determined.

The following proportion expresses the principle involved:

total number of fibers in the nerve area of ass section of entire nerve number counted in the sample area area of sample

I f the planimeter calibration and the magnification of the tracing remain the same, a constant factor may be used for successive estimates. This factor is equal to the value of the planimeter reading of 1.000 divided by the area of the grid times the magnification squared. The final calculations are made by multiplying the number of fibers counted times the planimeter reading times the constant and dividing by the number of grid squares counted.

Counts of some nerves, using high magnification in enumerating the sample areas, can be finished in less than an hour after the preparation of slides. In comparing numbers obtained by complete counts with estimated numbers, the error was determined to be approximately ± 5%     

Sampling tiger ungulate prey by the distance method: lessons learned in Bardia National Park, Nepal

Because tiger Panthera tigris numbers are regulated by their prey base, prey abundance needs to monitored and estimated reliably. Recently, distance sampling has been adopted as the most appropriate method and is now becoming the standard monitoring protocol in all tiger range countries in south Asia. However, the accuracy of the density estimates generated by this method has not been assessed. From total counts within habitat blocks, we obtained accurate density estimates of ungulates within three main habitats in Bardia National Park, Nepal. We then applied the distance sampling method in the same habitats and compared the results. Distance sampling on foot in dense habitats (riverine forest and tallgrass floodplain) violated method assumptions, and sampling from vehicle along roads gave biased estimates. Sampling from elephant back worked well in all habitat types, but owing to their behaviour, the density of barking deer Muntiacus muntjak was underestimated. The accuracy of the estimates varied with sampling effort; for the very abundant chital deer Axis axis , estimates varied markedly at <200 animal observations, but converged at larger sample sizes to a similar point estimate as intensive block counts when approaching 300 observations. For the less abundant species, with <20 observations along >100 km of transect lines, the confidence intervals were quite high, and, hence, of limited value for detecting short-term populations trends. It is therefore difficult to obtain accurate density estimates of rare species by the distance method. In areas consisting of dense habitats, we recommend that the food base of tiger be estimated by distance sampling from elephant back, not on foot, directed at the main and most abundant prey species. For rare species, encounter rates obtained simultaneously may then serve as indices of relative abundances.     

Pellet group count methods to estimate red deer densities: Precision,potential accuracy and efficiency

Pellet group count methods are key tools for wildlife conservation and management. Therefore, it is essential to clarify the performance and suitability of the different pellet group count methods at distinct realities. This issue has been discussed by other researchers but with inconsistent conclusions, leaving open the necessity of additional studies. Aiming to fill this need, we used a combination of field data and simulation models to evaluate the density estimates, precision and potential accuracy of the results obtained through each pellet group count method, and also the sampling effort and efficiency associated with them. The methods evaluated were standing crop plot counts (FSCP), clearance plot counts (FAR), standing crop strip transect counts (ST) and standing crop line transect counts (LT). Deer density estimates by the four methods were statistically similar at all effort levels simulated. The analyses of CV trends reveal a better precision supplied by FSCP than by FAR for the same effort, while ST and LT yielded comparable values in analogous situations. The time required to make a survey is a key factor in the choice of a field technique. LT with distance sampling was the most efficient method to count pellet groups, while FAR seems to be the less proficient method. Attending to the limitations usually inherent to field surveys, like time, technicians and budget, LT appeared more efficient than the other methods, providing great precision and accuracy in less time. Nevertheless, at high densities and pronounced habitat heterogeneity, FAR became more efficient than FSC, do not requiring the decay rates, allowing accurate estimates in a few months when applied with the proper effort and environmental conditions. This study highlights the importance of carrying out pilot studies and simulation models to evaluate the sampling design prior to its implementation in the field.     

Optimization and accuracy of faecal pellet count estimates of population size: The case of European rabbits in extensive breeding nuclei

Cost-effective indices to estimate relative abundances of species are crucial for their management and conservation. As an example, population indices are needed to monitor extensive breeding nuclei used for translocating wild rabbit populations. Based on counts of faecal pellets from four high density rabbit nuclei in southwest Spain: (i) we assess the accuracy of this population index in high-density populations; and (ii) present a simulation approach to evaluate how the reduction of the counting effort affects accuracy of the population estimates. Our findings suggest that this method provides a valid estimate in high-density rabbit populations, and, notably, estimates would have not substantially changed after a reduction of 45–65% in the number of counted plots depending on variation on rabbit density between nuclei. We provide a framework that managers and other scientists could use to improve data collection of pellet counts in order to optimize their chances of detecting relative abundance estimates of rabbits. In addition, we present a R function to implement our approach that can easily be applied in a variety of monitoring programmes for other species based on count data. This will likely help to reduce field-effort in different studies without compromising population indices estimates.