Spatial subdivision of populations and estimates of genetic variation

Measures of variation in space are strongly affected by correlations between subdivisions used for sampling. Here we consider variation in gene frequencies across populations. Usually the variance of gene frequencies is standardized by dividing it by the mean gene frequency times one minus the mean (FST). Under the model of isolation by distance (usually called the "stepping stone" model), at the stationary state the correlation between the gene frequencies of two populations falls exponentially with the geographic distance between them. Using this model, we derive formulas for variances of blocks of populations of different sizes in one- and two-dimensional space and suggest that the theoretical results may be useful for understanding real observations, some examples of which are presented. We demonstrate how FST increases with the degree of subdivision among populations. We also show the effect of gaps between the sampled populations. Our results are valid, however, for traits other than gene frequencies, as long as their correlation with geographic distance falls exponentially. In the extension to 2-dimensional spaces, we present in closed form the distributions of distances between nodes of a lattice or of two lattices. These distributions might have applications in ecology.     

Global colorectal cancer burden in 2020 and projections to 2040

As the third most common malignancy and the second most deadly cancer, colorectal cancer (CRC) induces estimated 1.9 million incidence cases and 0.9 million deaths worldwide in 2020. The incidence of CRC is higher in highly developed countries, and it is increasing in middle- and low-income countries due to westernization. Moreover, a rising incidence of early-onset CRC is also emerging. The large number of CRC cases poses a growing global public health challenge. Raising awareness of CRC is important to promote healthy lifestyle choices, novel strategies for CRC management, and implementation of global screening programs, which are critical to reducing CRC morbidity and mortality in the future. CRC is a heterogeneous disease, and its subtype affiliation influences prognosis and therapeutic response. An accurate CRC subtype classification system is of great significance for basic research and clinical outcome. Here, we present the global epidemiology of CRC in 2020 and projections for 2040, review the major CRC subtypes to better understand CRC molecular basis, and summarize current risk factors, prevention, and screening strategies for CRC.     

Validating marker-based incidence estimates in repeatedly screened populations

Disease incidence (new cases of disease per person per year) is usually measured by using longitudinal data. However, several recent proposals for measuring the incidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) rely on cross-sectional data only. These methods assume each person is only sampled once; however, in some instances, it is necessary to consider these cross-sectional methods when individuals are represented more than once in the survey sample. We derive an extension of the cross-sectional incidence estimator that is valid for data from repeatedly screened populations and show under what conditions our new estimator reduces to the old estimator. An example involving estimation of HIV incidence among repeat blood donors is presented.     

Restoration of coral populations in light of genetic diversity estimates

Due to the importance of preserving the genetic integrity of populations, strategies to restore damaged coral reefs should attempt to retain the allelic diversity of the disturbed population; however, genetic diversity estimates are not available for most coral populations. To provide a generalized estimate of genetic diversity (in terms of allelic richness) of scleractinian coral populations, the literature was surveyed for studies describing the genetic structure of coral populations using microsatellites. The mean number of alleles per locus across 72 surveyed scleractinian coral populations was 8.27 (±0.75 SE). In addition, population genetic datasets from four species (Acropora palmata, Montastraea cavernosa, Montastraea faveolata and Pocillopora damicornis) were analyzed to assess the minimum number of donor colonies required to retain specific proportions of the genetic diversity of the population. Rarefaction analysis of the population genetic datasets indicated that using 10 donor colonies randomly sampled from the original population would retain >50% of the allelic diversity, while 35 colonies would retain >90% of the original diversity. In general, scleractinian coral populations are genetically diverse and restoration methods utilizing few clonal genotypes to re-populate a reef will diminish the genetic integrity of the population. Coral restoration strategies using 10–35 randomly selected local donor colonies will retain at least 50–90% of the genetic diversity of the original population. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Global patterns of resilience decline in vertebrate populations

Maintaining the resilience of natural populations, their ability to resist and recover from disturbance, is crucial to prevent biodiversity loss. However, the lack of appropriate data and quantitative tools has hampered our understanding of the factors determining resilience on a global scale. Here, we quantified the temporal trends of two key components of resilience—resistance and recovery—in >2000 population time-series of >1000 vertebrate species globally. We show that the number of threats to which a population is exposed is the main driver of resilience decline in vertebrate populations. Such declines are driven by a non-uniform loss of different components of resilience (i.e. resistance and recovery). Increased anthropogenic threats accelerating resilience loss through a decline in the recovery ability—but not resistance—of vertebrate populations. These findings suggest we may be underestimating the impacts of global change, highlighting the need to account for the multiple components of resilience in global biodiversity assessments.     

Correlations between sex rate estimates and fitness across predominantly parthenogenetic flatworm populations

One explanation for the success of sexual reproduction is that sex increases the efficacy of natural selection. Recombination and segregation lead to fitness variance among offspring which then offers a wider target for natural selection. Consequently, adaptation to changing environments is accelerated and population mean fitness will increase. We investigated whether low levels of sex are associated with increased fitness variance and mean in parthenogenetic biotypes of the planarian flatworm Schmidtea polychroa. Parthenogenetic S. polychroa are triploid and reproduce clonally with occasional sexual reproduction. By-products and measures of occasional sex are the local presence of tetraploids and elevated levels of genotypic diversity. We correlated the proportion of tetraploids and genotypic diversity with fitness attributes of six genetically differentiated locations within one meta-population. Results indicate strong, positive correlations with variance and with mean offspring number produced during a 5-week period. The ecological and evolutionary implications for the maintenance of parthenogenetic S. polychroa are discussed.     

Outcrossing rates and relatedness estimates in pecan (Carya illinoinensis) populations

Estimates of single and multilocus outcrossing rates as well as relatedness among progeny of individual seed trees were obtained for 14 populations of pecan [Carya illinoinensis (Wangenh.) K. Koch]. Mean outcrossing estimates were not significantly different from 1.0 and relatedness values indicate that most progeny within families are half sibs. Biparental inbreeding was insignificant in all study sites, and inbreeding coefficients indicated that populations were close to inbreeding equilibrium.     

Global estimates of shark catches using trade records from commercial markets

Despite growing concerns about overexploitation of sharks, lack of accurate, species-specific harvest data often hampers quantitative stock assessment. In such cases, trade studies can provide insights into exploitation unavailable from traditional monitoring. We applied Bayesian statistical methods to trade data in combination with genetic identification to estimate by species, the annual number of globally traded shark fins, the most commercially valuable product from a group of species often unrecorded in harvest statistics. Our results provide the first fishery-independent estimate of the scale of shark catches worldwide and indicate that shark biomass in the fin trade is three to four times higher than shark catch figures reported in the only global data base. Comparison of our estimates to approximated stock assessment reference points for one of the most commonly traded species, blue shark, suggests that current trade volumes in numbers of sharks are close to or possibly exceeding the maximum sustainable yield levels.     

Constraining future terrestrial carbon cycle projections using observation‐based water and carbon flux estimates

The terrestrial biosphere is currently acting as a sink for about a third of the total anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. However, the future fate of this sink in the coming decades is very uncertain, as current earth system models (ESMs) simulate diverging responses of the terrestrial carbon cycle to upcoming climate change. Here, we use observation‐based constraints of water and carbon fluxes to reduce uncertainties in the projected terrestrial carbon cycle response derived from simulations of ESMs conducted as part of the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We find in the ESMs a clear linear relationship between present‐day evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary productivity (GPP), as well as between these present‐day fluxes and projected changes in GPP, thus providing an emergent constraint on projected GPP. Constraining the ESMs based on their ability to simulate present‐day ET and GPP leads to a substantial decrease in the projected GPP and to a ca. 50% reduction in the associated model spread in GPP by the end of the century. Given the strong correlation between projected changes in GPP and in NBP in the ESMs, applying the constraints on net biome productivity (NBP) reduces the model spread in the projected land sink by more than 30% by 2100. Moreover, the projected decline in the land sink is at least doubled in the constrained ensembles and the probability that the terrestrial biosphere is turned into a net carbon source by the end of the century is strongly increased. This indicates that the decline in the future land carbon uptake might be stronger than previously thought, which would have important implications for the rate of increase in the atmospheric CO₂ concentration and for future climate change.     

Comparative microsatellite typing of new world leishmania infantum reveals low heterogeneity among populations and its recent old world origin

Leishmania infantum (syn. L. chagasi) is the causative agent of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the New World (NW) with endemic regions extending from southern USA to northern Argentina. The two hypotheses about the origin of VL in the NW suggest (1) recent importation of L. infantum from the Old World (OW), or (2) an indigenous origin and a distinct taxonomic rank for the NW parasite. Multilocus microsatellite typing was applied in a survey of 98 L. infantum isolates from different NW foci. The microsatellite profiles obtained were compared to those of 308 L. infantum and 20 L. donovani strains from OW countries previously assigned to well-defined populations. Two main populations were identified for both NW and OW L. infantum. Most of the NW strains belonged to population 1, which corresponded to the OW MON-1 population. However, the NW population was much more homogeneous. A second, more heterogeneous, population comprised most Caribbean strains and corresponded to the OW non-MON-1 population. All Brazilian L. infantum strains belonged to population 1, although they represented 61% of the sample and originated from 9 states. Population analysis including the OW L. infantum populations indicated that the NW strains were more similar to MON-1 and non-MON-1 sub-populations of L. infantum from southwest Europe, than to any other OW sub-population. Moreover, similarity between NW and Southwest European L. infantum was higher than between OW L. infantum from distinct parts of the Mediterranean region, Middle East and Central Asia. No correlation was found between NW L. infantum genotypes and clinical picture or host background. This study represents the first continent-wide analysis of NW L. infantum population structure. It confirmed that the agent of VL in the NW is L. infantum and that the parasite has been recently imported multiple times to the NW from southwest Europe.     

Parameter estimates from mark-recapture experiments on two populations subject to migration and death

A model is developed for a triple catch marking experiment on two areas with migration between the two areas and death or emigration occurring. Estimates of the parameters of the model are derived. Some of these estimates are shown to be suitable even under certain restrictions on migration (e.g. animals may be restricted to a single transfer in the course of the experiment). Variances of the estimates were not derived but some rules were developed, based on computer simulations, to guide the experimenter in planning experiments and in judging the precision of his estimates.