Understanding global teleconnections of climate to regional model estimates of Amazon ecosystem carbon fluxes

We have investigated global teleconnections of climate to regional satellite‐driven observations for prediction of Amazon ecosystem production, in the form of monthly estimates of net carbon exchange over the period 1982–1998 from the NASA–CASA (Carnegie–Ames–Stanford) biosphere model. This model is driven by observed surface climate and monthly estimates of vegetation leaf area index (LAI) and fraction of absorbed PAR (fraction of photosynthetically active radiation, FPAR) generated from the NOAA satellite advanced very high‐resolution radiometer (AVHRR) and similar sensors. Land surface AVHRR data processing using modified moderate‐resolution imaging spectroradiometer radiative transfer algorithms includes improved calibration for intra‐ and intersensor variations, partial atmospheric correction for gaseous absorption and scattering, and correction for stratospheric aerosol effects associated with volcanic eruptions. Results from our analysis suggest that anomalies of net primary production and net ecosystem production predicted from the NASA–CASA model over large areas of the Amazon region east of 60°W longitude are strongly correlated with the Southern Oscillation index. Extensive areas of the south‐central Amazon show strong linkages of the FPAR and the NASA–CASA anomaly record to the Arctic Oscillation index, which help confirm a strong relation to southern Atlantic climate anomalies, with associated impacts on Amazon rainfall patterns. Processes are investigated for these teleconnections of global climate to Amazon ecosystem carbon fluxes and regional land surface climate.     

Comparing and evaluating process-based ecosystem model predictions of carbon and water fluxes in major European forest biomes

Process‐based models can be classified into: (a) terrestrial biogeochemical models (TBMs), which simulate fluxes of carbon, water and nitrogen coupled within terrestrial ecosystems, and (b) dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), which further couple these processes interactively with changes in slow ecosystem processes depending on resource competition, establishment, growth and mortality of different vegetation types. In this study, four models – RHESSys, GOTILWA+, LPJ‐GUESS and ORCHIDEE – representing both modelling approaches were compared and evaluated against benchmarks provided by eddy‐covariance measurements of carbon and water fluxes at 15 forest sites within the EUROFLUX project. Overall, model‐measurement agreement varied greatly among sites. Both modelling approaches have somewhat different strengths, but there was no model among those tested that universally performed well on the two variables evaluated. Small biases and errors suggest that ORCHIDEE and GOTILWA+ performed better in simulating carbon fluxes while LPJ‐GUESS and RHESSys did a better job in simulating water fluxes. In general, the models can be considered as useful tools for studies of climate change impacts on carbon and water cycling in forests. However, the various sources of variation among models simulations and between models simulations and observed data described in this study place some constraints on the results and to some extent reduce their reliability. For example, at most sites in the Mediterranean region all models generally performed poorly most likely because of problems in the representation of water stress effects on both carbon uptake by photosynthesis and carbon release by heterotrophic respiration (R_h). The use of flux data as a means of assessing key processes in models of this type is an important approach to improving model performance. Our results show that the models have value but that further model development is necessary with regard to the representation of the some of the key ecosystem processes.     

1958-2008年太白山太白红杉林碳循环模拟

太白红杉(Larix chinensis林主要分布于我国秦岭太白山的林线位置,对气候变化的响应十分敏感.为了定量分析太白山太白红杉林在气候变化背景下的碳循环特征,基于模型(MTCLIM)模拟的温度和降水数据,应用植被动态过程模型(LPJ-GUESS)模拟了太白山南北坡1958-2008年太白红杉林的净初级生产力(NPP)、生物量和净生态系统碳交换量(NEE).结果表明:1)太白红杉和巴山冷杉(Abies fargesii)的NPP和生物量在太白红杉林占有优势,太白红杉的NPP和生物量均大于巴山冷杉.1958-2008年间太白红杉南北坡NPP的平均值为0.38 kgC·m-2·a-1,巴山冷杉为0.25 kgC·m-2,a-1,两者之和占整个太白红杉林NPP的86％;1958-2008年间太白红杉南北坡生物量的平均值为2.91 kgC/m2,巴山冷杉为2.02 kgC/m2,两者之和占太白红杉林生物量的94％.2)太白红杉和巴山冷杉的NPP均表现为北坡大于南坡,且南北坡均有逐年增加的趋势,北坡的增幅小于南坡,所以太白山南北坡太白红杉林的NPP差异有逐年减少的趋势.3)太白红杉生物量的年际波动较大,南北坡呈交替上升趋势,南坡的平均值(2.94 kgC/m2)大于北坡(2.89 kgC/m2).巴山冷杉生物量的年际波动相对较小,北坡生物量水平大于南坡.4)1958-2008年南北坡太白红杉林平均NEE均为-0.023 kgC·m-2·a-1,表现为碳汇.南北坡碳汇水平均呈逐年增加趋势,南坡的增加幅度(0.91 g·m-2·a-1)大于北坡(0.42 g·m-2·a-1).以气候和CO2为驱动因子对太白山太白红杉林的长期碳循环动态做了定量分析,从机理上揭示气候变化与生态系统碳循环的关系,还需要做进一步的野外观测和控制实验研究.     

Impacts of tropospheric ozone and climate change on net primary productivity and net carbon exchange of China's forest ecosystems

Aim We investigated how ozone pollution and climate change/variability have interactively affected net primary productivity (NPP) and net carbon exchange (NCE) across China's forest ecosystem in the past half century. Location Continental China. Methods Using the dynamic land ecosystem model (DLEM) in conjunction with 10‐km‐resolution gridded historical data sets (tropospheric O₃ concentrations, climate variability/change, and other environmental factors such as land‐cover/land‐use change (LCLUC), increasing CO₂ and nitrogen deposition), we conducted nine simulation experiments to: (1) investigate the temporo‐spatial patterns of NPP and NCE in China's forest ecosystems from 1961–2005; and (2) quantify the effects of tropospheric O₃ pollution alone or in combination with climate variability and other environmental stresses on forests' NPP and NCE. Results China's forests acted as a carbon sink during 1961–2005 as a result of the combined effects of O₃, climate, CO₂, nitrogen deposition and LCLUC. However, simulated results indicated that elevated O₃ caused a 7.7% decrease in national carbon storage, with O₃‐induced reductions in NCE (Pg C year^?1) ranging from 0.4–43.1% among different forest types. Sensitivity experiments showed that climate change was the dominant factor in controlling changes in temporo‐spatial patterns of annual NPP. The combined negative effects of O₃ pollution and climate change on NPP and NCE could be largely offset by the positive fertilization effects of nitrogen deposition and CO₂. Main conclusions In the future, tropospheric O₃ should be taken into account in order to fully understand the variations of carbon sequestration capacity of forests and assess the vulnerability of forest ecosystems to climate change and air pollution. Reducing air pollution in China is likely to increase the resilience of forests to climate change. This paper offers the first estimate of how prevention of air pollution can help to increase forest productivity and carbon sequestration in China's forested ecosystems.     

Improving predictions of tropical forest response to climate change through integration of field studies and ecosystem modeling

Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very limited. Efforts to model climate change impacts on carbon fluxes in tropical forests have not reached a consensus. Here, we use the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) to predict carbon fluxes of a Puerto Rican tropical forest under realistic climate change scenarios. We parameterized ED2 with species‐specific tree physiological data using the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer workflow and projected the fate of this ecosystem under five future climate scenarios. The model successfully captured interannual variability in the dynamics of this tropical forest. Model predictions closely followed observed values across a wide range of metrics including aboveground biomass, tree diameter growth, tree size class distributions, and leaf area index. Under a future warming and drying climate scenario, the model predicted reductions in carbon storage and tree growth, together with large shifts in forest community composition and structure. Such rapid changes in climate led the forest to transition from a sink to a source of carbon. Growth respiration and root allocation parameters were responsible for the highest fraction of predictive uncertainty in modeled biomass, highlighting the need to target these processes in future data collection. Our study is the first effort to rely on Bayesian model calibration and synthesis to elucidate the key physiological parameters that drive uncertainty in tropical forests responses to climatic change. We propose a new path forward for model‐data synthesis that can substantially reduce uncertainty in our ability to model tropical forest responses to future climate.     

气候变化对陆地生态系统土壤有机碳储量变化的影响

通过研究气候变化对土壤有机碳储藏的影响,对预测未来气候变化下土壤有机碳动态变化与深入理解陆地生态系统变化和气候变化之间的相互作用有着极其重要的意义。本文归纳了土壤类型法、模型模拟法等途径对土壤有机碳储量估算的结果并分析它们各自的不确定性,综述了气候变化对土壤碳贮藏影响机理的研究与相应过程模拟的模型研究进展,并综合分析了当前研究中还存在的问题与不足。     

Reduction of ecosystem productivity and respiration during the European summer 2003 climate anomaly: a joint flux tower, remote sensing and modelling analysis

The European CARBOEUROPE/FLUXNET monitoring sites, spatial remote sensing observations via the EOS‐MODIS sensor and ecosystem modelling provide independent and complementary views on the effect of the 2003 heatwave on the European biosphere's productivity and carbon balance. In our analysis, these data streams consistently demonstrate a strong negative anomaly of the primary productivity during the summer of 2003. FLUXNET eddy‐covariance data indicate that the drop in productivity was not primarily caused by high temperatures (‘heat stress’) but rather by limitation of water (drought stress) and that, contrary to the classical expectation about a heat wave, not only gross primary productivity but also ecosystem respiration declined by up to more than to 80 gC m⁻² month⁻¹. Anomalies of carbon and water fluxes were strongly correlated. While there are large between‐site differences in water‐use efficiency (WUE, 1–6 kg C kg⁻¹ H₂O) here defined as gross carbon uptake divided by evapotranspiration (WUE=GPP/ET), the year‐to‐year changes in WUE were small (<1 g kg⁻¹) and quite similar for most sites (i.e. WUE decreased during the year of the heatwave). Remote sensing data from MODIS and AVHRR both indicate a strong negative anomaly of the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation in summer 2003, at more than five standard deviations of the previous years. The spatial differentiation of this anomaly follows climatic and land‐use patterns: Largest anomalies occur in the centre of the meteorological anomaly (central Western Europe) and in areas dominated by crops or grassland. A preliminary model intercomparison along a gradient from data‐oriented models to process‐oriented models indicates that all approaches are similarly describing the spatial pattern of ecosystem sensitivity to the climatic 2003 event with major exceptions in the Alps and parts of Eastern Europe, but differed with respect to their interannual variability.     

China's crop productivity and soil carbon storage as influenced by multifactor global change

Much concern has been raised about how multifactor global change has affected food security and carbon sequestration capacity in China. By using a process‐based ecosystem model, the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM), in conjunction with the newly developed driving information on multiple environmental factors (climate, atmospheric CO₂, tropospheric ozone, nitrogen deposition, and land cover/land use change), we quantified spatial and temporal patterns of net primary production (NPP) and soil organic carbon storage (SOC) across China's croplands during 1980–2005 and investigated the underlying mechanisms. Simulated results showed that both crop NPP and SOC increased from 1980 to 2005, and the highest annual NPP occurred in the Southeast (SE) region (0.32 Pg C yr^?1, 35.4% of the total NPP) whereas the largest annual SOC (2.29 Pg C yr^?1, 35.4% of the total SOC) was found in the Northeast (NE) region. Land management practices, particularly nitrogen fertilizer application, appear to be the most important factor in stimulating increase in NPP and SOC. However, tropospheric ozone pollution and climate change led to NPP reduction and SOC loss. Our results suggest that China's crop productivity and soil carbon storage could be enhanced through minimizing tropospheric ozone pollution and improving nitrogen fertilizer use efficiency.     

Effects of climate change on net primary productivity in Larix olgensis plantations based on process modeling

Aims Climate change has significant effects on net primary productivity (NPP) in forests, but there is a large uncertainty in the direction and magnitude of the effects. Process-based models are important tools for understanding the responses of forests to climate change. The objective of the study is to simulate changes in NPP of Larix olgensis plantations under future climate scenarios using 3-PG model in order to guide the management of L. olgensis plantations in the context of global climate change.Methods Data were obtained for 30 permanent plots of L. olgensis plantations in Siping, Linjiang, Baishan, etc. of Jilin Province, and a process model, 3-PG model, was applied to simulate changes in NPP over a rotation period of 40 years under different climate scenarios. Parameter sensitivity was also determined. Important findings The locally parameterized 3-PG model well simulates the changes in NPP against the measured NPP data, with values between 272.79-844.80 g·m^-2·a^-1 and both mean relative error and relative root mean square error within 12%. The NPP in L. olgensis plantations would increase significantly with increases in atmospheric CO₂ concentration, temperature and precipitation collectively. However, an increase in temperature alone would lead to a decrease in NPP, but increases in precipitation and atmospheric CO₂ concentration would increase NPP; the positive effect of increasing precipitation appears to be weaker than the negative effect of increasing temperature. Sensitivity analysis shows that the model performance is sensitive to the optimum temperature, stand age at which specific leaf area equals to half of the sum of specific leaf area at age 0 (SLA₀) and that for mature leaves (SLA₁), and days of production loss due to frost.     

Estimating diurnal to annual ecosystem parameters by synthesis of a carbon flux model with eddy covariance net ecosystem exchange observations

We performed a synthetic analysis of Harvard Forest net ecosystem exchange of CO₂ (NEE) time series and a simple ecosystem carbon flux model, the simplified Photosynthesis and Evapo‐Transpiration model (SIPNET). SIPNET runs at a half‐daily time step, and has two vegetation carbon pools, a single aggregated soil carbon pool, and a simple soil moisture sub‐model. We used a stochastic Bayesian parameter estimation technique that provided posterior distributions of the model parameters, conditioned on the observed fluxes and the model equations. In this analysis, we estimated the values of all quantities that govern model behavior, including both rate constants and initial conditions for carbon pools. The purpose of this analysis was not to calibrate the model to make predictions about future fluxes but rather to understand how much information about process controls can be derived directly from the NEE observations. A wavelet decomposition enabled us to assess model performance at multiple time scales from diurnal to decadal. The model parameters are most highly constrained by eddy flux data at daily to seasonal time scales, suggesting that this approach is not useful for calculating annual integrals. However, the ability of the model to fit both the diurnal and seasonal variability patterns in the data simultaneously, using the same parameter set, indicates the effectiveness of this parameter estimation method. Our results quantify the extent to which the eddy covariance data contain information about the ecosystem process parameters represented in the model, and suggest several next steps in model development and observations for improved synthesis of models with flux observations.     

火干扰与生态系统的碳循环

火干扰是陆地生态系统碳循环的重要影响因子。它改变着整个系统的碳循环过程与碳分布格局。正确评估火干扰在碳循环过程中的作用,对推进全球碳循环研究有着重要的意义。从4个方面系统的回顾了火干扰对碳循环的影响过程及其研究方法:(1)火烧过程中含碳痕量气体排放的估算;(2)火烧迹地恢复过程中净第一性生产力(NPP)与土壤呼吸的变化;(3)火干扰对生态系统碳源/汇的影响;(4)模型方法在火干扰与生态系统碳循环研究中的应用。目前火灾碳排量的估算方法业已成熟,但进行更精确的估算必须基于对受干扰生态系统的性质以及火势的时空变异性质的准确理解;相比之下,对于间接的、更为重要的影响,即对火烧迹地恢复过程中碳循环变化的研究则显不足。由于数据缺乏,现有研究大多限于对碳循环某一方面的观测与定量描述,缺乏全面的机理性分析。对此,实地观测、模型模拟与遥感观测的跨尺度集成将成为未来火干扰研究的一个主要方向。     

Endemic species and ecosystem sensitivity to climate change in Namibia

We present a first assessment of the potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change on the endemic flora of Namibia, and on its vegetation structure and function, for a projected climate in ～2050 and ～2080. We used both niche‐based models (NBM) to evaluate the sensitivity of 159 endemic species to climate change (of an original 1020 plant species modeled) and a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) to assess the impacts of climate change on vegetation structure and ecosystem functioning. Endemic species modeled by NBM are moderately sensitive to projected climate change. Fewer than 5% are predicted to experience complete range loss by 2080, although more than 47% of the species are expected to be vulnerable (range reduction >30%) by 2080 if they are assumed unable to migrate. Disaggregation of results by life‐form showed distinct patterns. Endemic species of perennial herb, geophyte and tree life‐formsare predicted to be negatively impacted in Namibia, whereas annual herb and succulent endemic species remain relatively stable by 2050 and 2080. Endemic annual herb species are even predicted to extend their range north‐eastward into the tree and shrub savanna with migration, and tolerance of novel substrates. The current protected area network is predicted to meet its mandate by protecting most of the current endemicity in Namibia into the future. Vegetation simulated by DGVM is projected to experience a reduction in cover, net primary productivity and leaf area index throughout much of the country by 2050, with important implications for the faunal component of Namibia's ecosystems, and the agricultural sector. The plant functional type (PFT) composition of the major biomes may be substantially affected by climate change and rising atmospheric CO₂– currently widespread deciduous broad leaved trees and C₄ PFTs decline, with the C₄ PFT particularly negatively affected by rising atmospheric CO₂ impacts by ～2080 and deciduous broad leaved trees more likely directly impacted by drying and warming. The C₃ PFT may increase in prominence in the northwestern quadrant of the country by ～2080 as CO₂ concentrations increase. These results suggest that substantial changes in species diversity, vegetation structure and ecosystem functioning can be expected in Namibia with anticipated climate change, although endemic plant richness may persist in the topographically diverse central escarpment region.     

Net regional ecosystem CO2 exchange from airborne and ground-based eddy covariance, land-use maps and weather observations

Measurements of regional net ecosystem exchange (NEE) were made over a period of 21 days in summer 2002 in the South‐Central part of the Netherlands and extrapolated to an area of 13 000 km² using a combination of flux measurements made by a Sky Arrow ERA research aircraft, half‐hourly eddy covariance data from four towers, half‐hourly weather data recorded by three weather stations and detailed information on regional land use. The combination of this type of information allowed to estimate the net contribution of the terrestrial ecosystems to the overall regional carbon flux and to map dynamically the temporal and spatial variability of the fluxes. A regional carbon budget was calculated for the study period and the contributions of the different land uses to the overall regional flux, were assessed. Ecosystems were, overall, a small source of carbon to the atmosphere equivalent to to 0.23±0.025 g C m⁻² day⁻¹. When considered separately, arable and grasslands were a source of, respectively, 0.68±0.022 and 1.28±0.026 g C m⁻² day⁻¹. Evergreen and deciduous forests were instead a sink of −1.42±0.015 g C m⁻² day⁻¹. During the study period, forests offset approximately 3.5% of anthropogenic carbon emission estimates obtained from inventory data. Lacking of a robust validation, NEE values obtained with this method were compared with independent state of art estimates of the regional carbon balance that were obtained by applying a semi‐empirical model of NEE driven by MODIS satellite fAPAR data. The comparison showed an acceptable matching for the carbon balance of forest that was a sink in both cases, while a much larger difference for arable and grassland was found. Those ecosystems were a sink for satellite‐based estimates while they were a source for the combined aircraft and tower estimates. Possible causes of such differences are discussed and partly addressed. The importance of new methods for determining carbon balance at the regional scale, is outlined.     

陕西省油松林生产力动态及对未来气候变化的响应

本研究利用LPJ-GUESS模型,分析了陕西省油松林在未来时期(2015-2100年)不同气候情景下净初级生产力(NPP)的变化趋势.结果表明: 在未来时期,研究区温度在RCP_2.6、RCP_4.5和RCP_8.5情景下将分别以0.12、0.23和0.54 ℃·10 a^-1的速率显著升高;降水在RCP_2.6和RCP_8.5情景下无显著变化,在RCP_4.5情景下将以14.36 mm·10 a^-1的速率显著增加.与历史时期(1961-1990年)相比,研究区油松林的NPP在未来时期将升高1.6%~29.6%;在RCP_8.5情景下21世纪末期(2071-2100年)油松林NPP将会升高45.4%;不同情景下油松林NPP表现为RCP_8.5＞RCP_4.5＞RCP_2.6.在未来时期,陕北地区油松林NPP在RCP_2.6和RCP_4.5情景下将分别以41.00和21.00 g C·m^-2·10 a^-1的速率下降,该区油松林有变为碳源的可能.     

中国森林生态系统净初级生产力时空分布及其对气候变化的响应研究综述

植被生产力是表征植被活力的关键变量,能够反映陆地生态系统的质量状况。森林净初级生产力(NPP)对气候变化的响应研究,是理解森林生态系统碳收支的基础,有助于认识气候变化与森林生态系统的相互作用机制,因而对于深刻理解陆地碳循环和全球变化均具有重要意义。目前我国已有大量针对近几十年国家和区域尺度上植被NPP时空分布的研究,其中专门针对森林生态系统NPP的研究也有不少。研究尺度多为全国范围或者片段式区域,以行政区或流域尺度最为多见。然而,这些研究总体比较分散,其中部分研究的结果、结论并不一致甚至相悖,尚缺乏异同性分析与比较,也缺乏系统性和综合性。这并不利于全面掌握我国相关研究的整体情况、了解清晰明确的研究结论以及进行更深层次的规律及原因探究,也非常影响对森林NPP的精确评估及机理认识,因而,对相关研究成果进行梳理、整合和总结非常有必要。鉴于此,本文收集了近几十年我国植被NPP研究的相关文献,依据其研究结果,系统地综述了全国及区域尺度森林生态系统NPP的时空分布规律及未来可能变化趋势,揭示出NPP与气候因子(以CO₂、温度、降水为主)的关系及对气候变化的响应情况,并指出目前...     

Net primary and ecosystem production and carbon stocks of terrestrial ecosystems and their responses to climate change

Evaluating the role of terrestrial ecosystems in the global carbon cycle requires a detailed understanding of carbon exchange between vegetation, soil, and the atmosphere. Global climatic change may modify the net carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems, causing feedbacks on atmospheric CO₂ and climate. We describe a model for investigating terrestrial carbon exchange and its response to climatic variation based on the processes of plant photosynthesis, carbon allocation, litter production, and soil organic carbon decomposition. The model is used to produce geographical patterns of net primary production (NPP), carbon stocks in vegetation and soils, and the seasonal variations in net ecosystem production (NEP) under both contemporary and future climates. For contemporary climate, the estimated global NPP is 57.0 Gt C y^–1, carbon stocks in vegetation and soils are 640 Gt C and 1358 Gt C, respectively, and NEP varies from –0.5 Gt C in October to 1.6 Gt C in July. For a doubled atmospheric CO₂ concentration and the corresponding climate, we predict that global NPP will rise to 69.6 Gt C y^–1, carbon stocks in vegetation and soils will increase by, respectively, 133 Gt C and 160 Gt C, and the seasonal amplitude of NEP will increase by 76%. A doubling of atmospheric CO₂ without climate change may enhance NPP by 25% and result in a substantial increase in carbon stocks in vegetation and soils. Climate change without CO₂ elevation will reduce the global NPP and soil carbon stocks, but leads to an increase in vegetation carbon because of a forest extension and NPP enhancement in the north. By combining the effects of CO₂ doubling, climate change, and the consequent redistribution of vegetation, we predict a strong enhancement in NPP and carbon stocks of terrestrial ecosystems. This study simulates the possible variation in the carbon exchange at equilibrium state. We anticipate to investigate the dynamic responses in the carbon exchange to atmospheric CO₂ elevation and climate change in the past and future.     

Temporal and spatial variation characteristics of China shrubland net primary production and its response to climate change from 2001 to 2013

Aims Net primary production (NPP) is the input to terrestrial ecosystem carbon pool. Climate and land use change affect NPP significantly. Shrublands occupy more than 20% of the terrestrial area of China, and their NPP is comparable to those of the forests. Our objective was to estimate China shrubland NPP from 2001 to 2013, and to analyze its variation and response to climate change.Methods We used a Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) model to estimate the NPP of six shrubland types in China from 2001 to 2013. Furthermore, we used Theil-Sen slope combined with Mann-kendall test to analyze its spatial variation and a linear regression of one-variable model to analyze its inter- and intra-annual variation. Finally, a multi-factor linear regression model was used to analyze its response to climate change.Important findings We found the annual mean NPP of China shrubland was 281.82 g•m^-2•a^-1. The subtropical evergreen shrubland has the maximum NPP of 420.47 g•m^-2•a^-1, while the high cold desert shrubland has the minimum NPP of 52.65 g•m^-2•a^-1. The countrywide shrublands NPP increased at the rate of 1.23 g•m^-2•a^-1, the relative change rate was 5.99%. The temperate deciduous shrubland NPP increased the fastest with a speed of 3.05 g•m^-2•a^-1 and subalpine evergreen shrubland had a decreasing trend with a speed of -0.73 g•m^-2•a^-1. Moreover, the other four shrublands NPP had a growing trend, only subalpine deciduous shrubland NPP did not change significantly. The response of NPP to climate change of different seasons varies to different shrubland types. In general, the NPP variation was mainly affected by precipitation, and the spring warming also contributed to it. The increase of countrywide shrubland NPP may promote its contribution to the regional ecosystem function.     

Effects of 21st‐century climate,land use,and disturbances on ecosystem carbon balance in California

Terrestrial ecosystems are an important sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂), sequestering ~30% of annual anthropogenic emissions and slowing the rise of atmospheric CO₂. However, the future direction and magnitude of the land sink is highly uncertain. We examined how historical and projected changes in climate, land use, and ecosystem disturbances affect the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in California over the period 2001–2100. We modeled 32 unique scenarios, spanning 4 land use and 2 radiative forcing scenarios as simulated by four global climate models. Between 2001 and 2015, carbon storage in California's terrestrial ecosystems declined by ?188.4 Tg C, with a mean annual flux ranging from a source of ?89.8 Tg C/year to a sink of 60.1 Tg C/year. The large variability in the magnitude of the state's carbon source/sink was primarily attributable to interannual variability in weather and climate, which affected the rate of carbon uptake in vegetation and the rate of ecosystem respiration. Under nearly all future scenarios, carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems was projected to decline, with an average loss of ?9.4% (?432.3 Tg C) by the year 2100 from current stocks. However, uncertainty in the magnitude of carbon loss was high, with individual scenario projections ranging from ?916.2 to 121.2 Tg C and was largely driven by differences in future climate conditions projected by climate models. Moving from a high to a low radiative forcing scenario reduced net ecosystem carbon loss by 21% and when combined with reductions in land‐use change (i.e., moving from a high to a low land‐use scenario), net carbon losses were reduced by 55% on average. However, reconciling large uncertainties associated with the effect of increasing atmospheric CO₂ is needed to better constrain models used to establish baseline conditions from which ecosystem‐based climate mitigation strategies can be evaluated.