Exploring the Seasonality of Reported Treated Malaria Cases in Mpumalanga,South Africa

South Africa, having met the World Health Organisation''s pre-elimination criteria, has set a goal to achieve malaria elimination by 2018. Mpumalanga, one of three provinces where malaria transmission still occurs, has a malaria season subject to unstable transmission that is prone to sporadic outbreaks. As South Africa prepares to intensify efforts towards malaria elimination, there is a need to understand patterns in malaria transmission so that efforts may be targeted appropriately. This paper describes the seasonality of transmission by exploring the relationship between malaria cases and three potential drivers: rainfall, geography (physical location) and the source of infection (local/imported). Seasonal decomposition of the time series by Locally estimated scatterplot smoothing is applied to the case data for the geographical and source of infection sub-groups. The relationship between cases and rainfall is assessed using a cross-correlation analysis. The malaria season was found to have a short period of no/low level of reported cases and a triple peak in reported cases between September and May; the three peaks occurring in October, January and May. The seasonal pattern of locally-sourced infection mimics the triple-peak characteristic of the total series while imported infections contribute mostly to the second and third peak of the season (Christmas and Easter respectively). Geographically, Bushbuckridge municipality, which exhibits a different pattern of cases, contributed mostly to the first and second peaks in cases while Maputo province (Mozambique) experienced a similar pattern in transmission to the imported cases. Though rainfall lagged at 4 weeks was significantly correlated with malaria cases, this effect was dampened due to the growing proportion of imported cases since 2006. These findings may be useful as they enhance the understanding of the current incidence pattern and may inform mathematical models that enable one to predict the impact changes in these drivers will have on malaria transmission.     

Molecular surveillance of the antifolate-resistant mutation I164L in imported african isolates of Plasmodium falciparum in Europe: sentinel data from TropNetEurop

Background

Malaria control programmes utilising indoor residual spraying are only effective if a high coverage of targeted structures is achieved and an insecticide that is effective against the specific mosquito vector is correctly applied. Ongoing monitoring of spraying operations is essential to assure optimal programme performance and early corrective action, where indicated.

Methods

Successful development and application of a computerised spraying operations management system in Mpumalanga Province, South Africa during 1998 resulted in its adaptation and introduction in neighbouring Maputo Province, southern Mozambique during 2000. The structure and components of this computerised management system are described, and its' operational benefit in southern Mozambique, where community-based spray operators apply intradomiciliary insecticide, are reviewed.

Conclusions

The computerised management system allowed malaria programme management and field supervisors to monitor spraying coverage, insecticide consumption and application rates on an ongoing basis. The system supported a successful transition to community-based spraying, while assuring correct insecticide application and spraying completion according to schedule.     

Preventing the reintroduction of malaria in Mauritius: a programmatic and financial assessment

Sustaining elimination of malaria in areas with high receptivity and vulnerability will require effective strategies to prevent reestablishment of local transmission, yet there is a dearth of evidence about this phase. Mauritius offers a uniquely informative history, with elimination of local transmission in 1969, re-emergence in 1975, and second elimination in 1998. Towards this end, Mauritius's elimination and prevention of reintroduction (POR) programs were analyzed via a comprehensive review of literature and government documents, supplemented by program observation and interviews with policy makers and program personnel. The impact of the country's most costly intervention, a passenger screening program, was assessed quantitatively using simulation modeling.On average, Mauritius spent $4.43 per capita per year (pcpy) during its second elimination campaign from 1982 to 1988. The country currently spends $2.06 pcpy on its POR program that includes robust surveillance, routine vector control, and prompt and effective treatment and response. Thirty-five percent of POR costs are for a passenger screening program. Modeling suggests that the estimated 14% of imported malaria infections identified by this program reduces the annual risk of indigenous transmission by approximately 2%. Of cases missed by the initial passenger screening program, 49% were estimated to be identified by passive or reactive case detection, leaving an estimated 3.1 unidentified imported infections per 100,000 inhabitants per year.The Mauritius experience indicates that ongoing intervention, strong leadership, and substantial predictable funding are critical to consistently prevent the reestablishment of malaria. Sustained vigilance is critical considering Mauritius's enabling conditions. Although the cost of POR is below that of elimination, annual per capita spending remains at levels that are likely infeasible for countries with lower overall health spending. Countries currently embarking on elimination should quantify and plan for potentially similar POR operations and costs.     

Mosquito community composition and abundance at contrasting sites in northern South Africa, 2014–2017

Most data on species associations and vector potential of mosquitoes in relation to arboviral infections in South Africa date back from the 1940s to late 1990s. Contextual information crucial for disease risk management and control, such as the sampling effort, diversity, abundance, and distribution of mosquitoes in large parts of South Africa still remains limited. Adult mosquitoes were collected routinely from two horse farms in Gauteng Province; two wildlife reserves in Limpopo Province, at Orpen Gate in Kruger National Park (KNP) and Mnisi Area in Mpumalanga Province between 2014–2017, using carbon dioxide‐baited light and tent traps. Mosquito diversity and richness are greater in untransformed natural and mixed rural settings. In untransformed wilderness areas, the most dominant species were Culex poicilipes, Anopheles coustani, and Aedes mcintoshi, while in mixed rural settings such as the Mnisi area, the two most abundant species were Cx. poicilipes and Mansonia uniformis. However, in peri‐urban areas, Cx. theileri, Cx. univittatus, and Cx. pipiens sensu lato were the most dominant. Aedes aegypti, Ae. mcintoshi, Ae. metallicus, Ae. vittatus, Cx. pipiens s.l., Cx. theileri, and Cx. univittatus had the widest geographical distribution in northern South Africa. Also collected were Anopheles arabiensis and An. vaneedeni, both known malaria vectors in South Africa. Arbovirus surveillance and vector control programs should be augmented in mixed rural and peri‐urban areas where the risk for mosquito‐borne disease transmission to humans and domestic stock is greater.     

Could Malaria Control Programmes be Timed to Coincide with Onset of Rainfall?

Malaria cases in South Africa’s Northern Province of Limpopo have surpassed known endemic KwaZulu Natal and Mpumalanga Provinces. This paper applies statistical methods: regression analysis and impulse response function to understand the timing of impact and the length that such impacts last. Climate data (rainfall and temperature) are obtained from South African Weather Services (SAWs); global data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), while clinical malaria data came from Malaria Control Centre in Tzaneen (Limpopo Province). Data collected span from January 1998 to July 2007. Signs of the coefficients are positive for rainfall and temperature and negative for their exponents. Three out of five independent variables consistently maintain a very high statistical level of significance. The coefficients for climate variables describe an inverted u-shape: parameters for the exponents of rainfall (?0.02, ?0.01, ?0.02, ?0.00) and temperature (?46.61, ?47.46, ?48.14, ?36.04) are both negative. A one standard deviation rise in rainfall (rainfall onset) increases malaria cases, and the effects become sustained for at least 3 months and conclude that onset of rainfall therefore triggers a ‘malaria season’. Malaria control programme and early warning system should be intensified in the first 3 months following the onset of rainfall.     

Asymptomatic Malaria in Refugees Living in a Non-Endemic South African City

Background

Asymptomatic malaria infection in refugees is both a threat to the lives of the individuals and the public in the host country. Although South Africa has been experiencing an unprecedented influx of refugees since 1994, data on malaria infection among refugees is lacking. Such information is critical since South Africa is among the countries that have planned to eliminate malaria. The objective of this study was to determine prevalence of asymptomatic malaria infection among a refugee population living in a city of KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa.

Methods and Findings

A survey was conducted on adult refugee participants who attended a faith-based facility offering social services in a city of KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa. The participants were screened for the presence of malaria using rapid diagnostic tests and microscopy. Demographic data for the participants were obtained using a closed ended questionnaire. Data was obtained for 303 participants consisting of 51.5% females and 47.5% males, ranging from 19 to 64 years old. More than 95% of them originated from sub-Saharan African countries. Two hundred and ninety participants provided a blood sample for screening of malaria. Of these, 3.8% tested positive for rapid diagnostic test and 5.9% for microscopy. The majority of malaria infections were due to Plasmodium falciparum.

Conclusions

The study confirms the presence of asymptomatic malaria infections among a refugee population residing in a city of KwaZulu-Natal province that is not endemic for malaria. The results have important implications for both public health and malaria control in South Africa, particularly since the country has decided to eliminate malaria by 2018. To achieve this goal, South Africa needs to expand research, surveillance and elimination activities to include non-endemic areas, particularly with high refugee populations. We further recommend use of powerful diagnostic tests such as PCR for these interventions.     

Controlling Malaria Using Livestock-Based Interventions: A One Health Approach

Where malaria is transmitted by zoophilic vectors, two types of malaria control strategies have been proposed based on animals: using livestock to divert vector biting from people (zooprophylaxis) or as baits to attract vectors to insecticide sources (insecticide-treated livestock). Opposing findings have been obtained on malaria zooprophylaxis, and despite the success of an insecticide-treated livestock trial in Pakistan, where malaria vectors are highly zoophilic, its effectiveness is yet to be formally tested in Africa where vectors are more anthropophilic. This study aims to clarify the different effects of livestock on malaria and to understand under what circumstances livestock-based interventions could play a role in malaria control programmes. This was explored by developing a mathematical model and combining it with data from Pakistan and Ethiopia. Consistent with previous work, a zooprophylactic effect of untreated livestock is predicted in two situations: if vector population density does not increase with livestock introduction, or if livestock numbers and availability to vectors are sufficiently high such that the increase in vector density is counteracted by the diversion of bites from humans to animals. Although, as expected, insecticide-treatment of livestock is predicted to be more beneficial in settings with highly zoophilic vectors, like South Asia, we find that the intervention could also considerably decrease malaria transmission in regions with more anthropophilic vectors, like Anopheles arabiensis in Africa, under specific circumstances: high treatment coverage of the livestock population, using a product with stronger or longer lasting insecticidal effect than in the Pakistan trial, and with small (ideally null) repellency effect, or if increasing the attractiveness of treated livestock to malaria vectors. The results suggest these are the most appropriate conditions for field testing insecticide-treated livestock in an Africa region with moderately zoophilic vectors, where this intervention could contribute to the integrated control of malaria and livestock diseases.     

Molecular surveillance and temporal monitoring of malaria parasites in focal Vietnamese provinces

In the past decade substantial reduction in malaria morbidity and mortality has been observed through well-implemented case management and vector control strategies. India has also achieved a significant reduction in malaria burden in 2018 and has committed to eliminate malaria by 2030. The Mandla Malaria Elimination Demonstration Project (MEDP) was started in 2017 in 1233 villages of District Mandla to demonstrate malaria elimination in a tribal district with hard-to-reach areas was possible using active and passive surveillance, case management, vector control, and targeted information, education and communication campaigns. An operational plan was developed to strengthen the existing surveillance and malaria elimination systems, through fortnightly active case detection to ensure that all cases including those that are introduced into the communities are rapidly identified and treated promptly. The plan also focused on the reduction of human-mosquito contact through the use of Long-Lasting Insecticial Nets (LLINs) and Indoor Residual Spray (IRS). The operational plan was modified in view of the present COVID-19 pandemic by creating systems of assistance for the local administration for COVID-related work while ensuring the operational integrity of malaria elimination efforts. The use of MEDP study design and operational plan, with its built-in management control systems, has yielded significant (91%) reduction of indigenous cases of malaria during the period from June 2017 to May 2020. The malaria positivity rate was 0.33% in 2017–18, 0.13% in 2018–19, and 0.06% in 2019–20. Mass screening revealed 0.18% malaria positivity in September–October 2018, followed by 0.06% in June 2019, and 0.03% in December 2019, and these were mostly asymptomatic cases in the community. The project has been able to sustain the gains of the past three years during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. This paper provides the study design and the operational plan for malaria elimination in a high-burden district of Central India, which presented difficulties of hard to reach areas, forest malaria, and complex epidemiology of urban and rural malaria. The lessons learned could be used for malaria elimination efforts in rest of the country and other parts of South Asia with comparable demography and epidemiology.     

A distribution model for Glossina brevipalpis and Glossina austeni in Southern Mozambique,Eswatini and South Africa for enhanced area-wide integrated pest management approaches

BackgroundGlossina austeni and Glossina brevipalpis (Diptera: Glossinidae) are the sole cyclical vectors of African trypanosomes in South Africa, Eswatini and southern Mozambique. These populations represent the southernmost distribution of tsetse flies on the African continent. Accurate knowledge of infested areas is a prerequisite to develop and implement efficient and cost-effective control strategies, and distribution models may reduce large-scale, extensive entomological surveys that are time consuming and expensive. The objective was to develop a MaxEnt species distribution model and habitat suitability maps for the southern tsetse belt of South Africa, Eswatini and southern Mozambique.Methodology/Principal findingsThe present study used existing entomological survey data of G. austeni and G. brevipalpis to develop a MaxEnt species distribution model and habitat suitability maps. Distribution models and a checkerboard analysis indicated an overlapping presence of the two species and the most suitable habitat for both species were protected areas and the coastal strip in KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa and Maputo Province, Mozambique. The predicted presence extents, to a small degree, into communal farming areas adjacent to the protected areas and coastline, especially in the Matutuíne District of Mozambique. The quality of the MaxEnt model was assessed using an independent data set and indicated good performance with high predictive power (AUC > 0.80 for both species).Conclusions/SignificanceThe models indicated that cattle density, land surface temperature and protected areas, in relation with vegetation are the main factors contributing to the distribution of the two tsetse species in the area. Changes in the climate, agricultural practices and land-use have had a significant and rapid impact on tsetse abundance in the area. The model predicted low habitat suitability in the Gaza and Inhambane Provinces of Mozambique, i.e., the area north of the Matutuíne District. This might indicate that the southern tsetse population is isolated from the main tsetse belt in the north of Mozambique. The updated distribution models will be useful for planning tsetse and trypanosomosis interventions in the area.     

Hot topic or hot air? Climate change and malaria resurgence in East African highlands

Climate has a significant impact on malaria incidence and we have predicted that forecast climate changes might cause some modifications to the present global distribution of malaria close to its present boundaries. However, it is quite another matter to attribute recent resurgences of malaria in the highlands of East Africa to climate change. Analyses of malaria time-series at such sites have shown that malaria incidence has increased in the absence of co-varying changes in climate. We find the widespread increase in resistance of the malaria parasite to drugs and the decrease in vector control activities to be more likely driving forces behind the malaria resurgence.     

Reduced variation around drug-resistant dhfr alleles in African Plasmodium falciparum

We have measured microsatellite diversity at 26 markers around the dhfr gene in pyrimethamine-sensitive and -resistant parasites collected in southeast Africa. Through direct comparison with diversity on sensitive chromosomes we have found significant loss of diversity across a region of 70 kb around the most highly resistant allele which is evidence of a selective sweep attributable to selection through widespread use of pyrimethamine (in combination with sulfadoxine) as treatment for malaria. Retrospective analysis through four years of direct and continuous selection from use of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine as first-line malaria treatment on a Plasmodium falciparum population in KwaZulu Natal, South Africa, has revealed how recombination significantly narrowed the margins of the selective sweep over time. A deterministic model incorporating selection coefficients measured during the same interval indicates that the transition was toward a state of recombination-selection equilibrium. We compared loss of diversity around the same resistance allele in two populations at either extreme of the range of entomological inoculation rates (EIRs), namely, under one infective bite per year in Mpumalanga, South Africa, and more than one per day in southern Tanzania. EIRs determine effective recombination rates and are expected to profoundly influence the dimensions of the selective sweep. Surprisingly, the dimensions were broadly consistent across both populations. We conclude that despite different recombination rates and contrasting drug selection histories in neighboring countries, the region-wide movement of resistant parasites has played a key role in the establishment of resistance in these populations and the dimensions of the selective sweep are dominated by the influence of high initial starting frequencies.     

The potential contribution of mass treatment to the control of Plasmodium falciparum malaria

Mass treatment as a means to reducing P. falciparum malaria transmission was used during the first global malaria eradication campaign and is increasingly being considered for current control programmes. We used a previously developed mathematical transmission model to explore both the short and long-term impact of possible mass treatment strategies in different scenarios of endemic transmission. Mass treatment is predicted to provide a longer-term benefit in areas with lower malaria transmission, with reduced transmission levels for at least 2 years after mass treatment is ended in a scenario where the baseline slide-prevalence is 5%, compared to less than one year in a scenario with baseline slide-prevalence at 50%. However, repeated annual mass treatment at 80% coverage could achieve around 25% reduction in infectious bites in moderate-to-high transmission settings if sustained. Using vector control could reduce transmission to levels at which mass treatment has a longer-term impact. In a limited number of settings (which have isolated transmission in small populations of 1000-10,000 with low-to-medium levels of baseline transmission) we find that five closely spaced rounds of mass treatment combined with vector control could make at least temporary elimination a feasible goal. We also estimate the effects of using gametocytocidal treatments such as primaquine and of restricting treatment to parasite-positive individuals. In conclusion, mass treatment needs to be repeated or combined with other interventions for long-term impact in many endemic settings. The benefits of mass treatment need to be carefully weighed against the risks of increasing drug selection pressure.     

Should the use of DDT be revived for malaria vector control?

Indoor residual spraying with DDT was the principle method by which malaria transmission was eradicated or greatly reduced in many countries between the late 1940s and 1970s. Since then, decreasing use of DDT has been associated with a resurgence of malaria in India, Sri Lanka, former Soviet Central Asia, Zanzibar, Venezuela and several other Latin American countries. In India and Zanzibar, DDT resistance in vectors, as well as a decline in spray coverage, are probable causes of reduced effectiveness of DDT in recent decades. In southern Europe, eradication of malaria transmission was achieved by DDT spraying in the 1940s and 50s and eradication has been sustained by adequate treatment of imported human malaria cases. In the highlands of Madagascar and South Africa, recent reversion to DDT spraying has been successful in stemming resurgences of malaria. Continued use of DDT for vector control, but not for agriculture, is approved by the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants. DDE residues in breast milk have been associated with DDT anti-malaria spraying in South Africa, but it is not known whether this is harmful. A claimed association of DDE residues with breast cancer have not been substantiated. There is a recent report of association of DDE residues with probability of premature birth; the possible relevance of this to anti-malarial use of DDT should be investigated. In Colombia, testing of the DDT stockpile for suspensibility, DDT resistance in Anopheles darlingi and investigation of the present affordability of widespread spraying with DDT, compared with alternative chemicals, are recommended.     

Optimal Population-Level Infection Detection Strategies for Malaria Control and Elimination in a Spatial Model of Malaria Transmission

Mass campaigns with antimalarial drugs are potentially a powerful tool for local elimination of malaria, yet current diagnostic technologies are insufficiently sensitive to identify all individuals who harbor infections. At the same time, overtreatment of uninfected individuals increases the risk of accelerating emergence of drug resistance and losing community acceptance. Local heterogeneity in transmission intensity may allow campaign strategies that respond to index cases to successfully target subpatent infections while simultaneously limiting overtreatment. While selective targeting of hotspots of transmission has been proposed as a strategy for malaria control, such targeting has not been tested in the context of malaria elimination. Using household locations, demographics, and prevalence data from a survey of four health facility catchment areas in southern Zambia and an agent-based model of malaria transmission and immunity acquisition, a transmission intensity was fit to each household based on neighborhood age-dependent malaria prevalence. A set of individual infection trajectories was constructed for every household in each catchment area, accounting for heterogeneous exposure and immunity. Various campaign strategies—mass drug administration, mass screen and treat, focal mass drug administration, snowball reactive case detection, pooled sampling, and a hypothetical serological diagnostic—were simulated and evaluated for performance at finding infections, minimizing overtreatment, reducing clinical case counts, and interrupting transmission. For malaria control, presumptive treatment leads to substantial overtreatment without additional morbidity reduction under all but the highest transmission conditions. Compared with untargeted approaches, selective targeting of hotspots with drug campaigns is an ineffective tool for elimination due to limited sensitivity of available field diagnostics. Serological diagnosis is potentially an effective tool for malaria elimination but requires higher coverage to achieve similar results to mass distribution of presumptive treatment.     

Imported Malaria in Korea: a 13-Year Experience in a Single Center

The incidence of imported malaria has been increasing in Korea. We reviewed data retrospectively to evaluate the epidemiology, clinical features, and outcomes of imported malaria from 1995 to 2007 in a university hospital. All patients diagnosed with imported malaria were included. Imported malaria was defined as a positive smear for malaria that was acquired in a foreign country. A total of 49 patients (mean age, 35.7 year; M : F = 38 : 11) were enrolled. The predominant malarial species was Plasmodium falciparum (73.5%), and the most frequent area of acquisition was Africa (55.1%), followed by Southeast Asia (22.4%) and South Asia (18.4%). Fourteen-patients (30.6%) suffered from severe malaria caused by P. falciparum and 1 patient (2.0%) died of multiorgan failure. Most of the patients were treated with mefloquine (79.2%) or quinine (10.2%); other antimalarial agents had to be given in 13.2% treated with mefloquine and 44.4% with quinine due to adverse drug events (ADEs). P. falciparum was the most common cause of imported malaria, with the majority of cases acquired from Africa, and a significant number of patients had severe malaria. Alternative antimalarial agents with lower rates of ADEs might be considered for effective treatment instead of mefloquine and quinine.     

Breeding biology of the Redwing Francolin in the highland grasslands of Mpumalanga Province,South Africa

We studied the breeding biology of the Redwing Francolin, Francolinus levaillantii, in the highland grasslands of Mpumalanga Province, South Africa, from 1995–1996. The breeding season is from August to March. Clutches were incubated by hens only and all nests were located in rank grass close to surface water. Mean clutch size was 4.3 eggs (S.D. = 0.78, n = 10) and mean egg dimensions were 40.1 × 32.3 mm (S.D. = 1.07 and 0.81, n = 44). Hatching success was 83.7% and clutch survival rate to 22 days of incubation was 82.8%. A mean of 3 chicks was produced per clutch; observed mean production (counts of hens with chicks) was 2.6 chicks per brood (n = 24 clutches; 62 chicks). The hunting season for Redwing Francolin in Mpumalanga should be from 15 April to 15 July.     

A Case of Plasmodium ovale Malaria Imported from West Africa

Malaria is a parasitic infection caused by Plasmodium species. Most of the imported malaria in Korea are due to Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum, and Plasmodium ovale infections are very rare. Here, we report a case of a 24-year-old American woman who acquired P. ovale while staying in Ghana, West Africa for 5 months in 2010. The patient was diagnosed with P. ovale malaria based on a Wright-Giemsa stained peripheral blood smear, Plasmodium genus-specific real-time PCR, Plasmodium species-specific nested PCR, and sequencing targeting 18S rRNA gene. The strain identified had a very long incubation period of 19-24 months. Blood donors who have malaria with a very long incubation period could be a potential danger for propagating malaria. Therefore, we should identify imported P. ovale infections not only by morphological findings but also by molecular methods for preventing propagation and appropriate treatment.