Loss of Genetic Diversity and Increased Subdivision in an Endemic Alpine Stonefly Threatened by Climate Change

Much remains unknown about the genetic status and population connectivity of high-elevation and high-latitude freshwater invertebrates, which often persist near snow and ice masses that are disappearing due to climate change. Here we report on the conservation genetics of the meltwater stonefly Lednia tumana (Ricker) of Montana, USA, a cold-water obligate species. We sequenced 1530 bp of mtDNA from 116 L. tumana individuals representing “historic” (>10 yr old) and 2010 populations. The dominant haplotype was common in both time periods, while the second-most-common haplotype was found only in historic samples, having been lost in the interim. The 2010 populations also showed reduced gene and nucleotide diversity and increased genetic isolation. We found lower genetic diversity in L. tumana compared to two other North American stonefly species, Amphinemura linda (Ricker) and Pteronarcys californica Newport. Our results imply small effective sizes, increased fragmentation, limited gene flow, and loss of genetic variation among contemporary L. tumana populations, which can lead to reduced adaptive capacity and increased extinction risk. This study reinforces concerns that ongoing glacier loss threatens the persistence of L. tumana, and provides baseline data and analysis of how future environmental change could impact populations of similar organisms.     

Contrasting Effects of Climate Change on Alpine Chamois

Global climate change can affect animal ecology in numerous ways, but researchers usually emphasize undesirable consequences. Temperature increases, for instance, can induce direct physiological costs and indirect effects via mismatches in resource needs and availability. Species living in mountainous regions, however, could experience beneficial effects because winters might become less severe. We examined the potentially opposing effects of climate change during spring, summer, and winter on recruitment in Alpine chamois (Rupicapra rupicapra). We examined initial recruitment (i.e., the ratio of kids to adult females) and net recruitment (i.e., the ratio of yearlings to adult females) of Alpine chamois through the use of linear mixed effects models and data from block count censuses performed across a 1,500-km² study area in the Italian Alps during summer from 2001 to 2015. Initial recruitment was relatively resistant to the effects of climate change, declining slightly over the study period. We suggest that the effects of increased forage availability and lower snow cover in winter may benefit the reproductive output of adult females, compensating for any negative effects of trophic mismatch and higher temperatures during summer. By contrast, net recruitment strongly declined throughout the study period, consistent with the slight decline of initial recruitment and the negative effects of increasing summer temperatures on the survival of kids during their first winter. These negative effects seemed to outweigh positive effects of climate change, even in a species strongly challenged by winter conditions. These findings provide important information for hunted populations; setting more appropriate hunting bags for yearling chamois should be considered. The ecological plasticity of the chamois, which also inhabits low altitudes, may allow a possible evolutionary escape for the species. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.     

The Altitude of Alpine Treeline: A Bellwether of Climate Change Effects

Because of the characteristically low temperatures and ambient CO₂ concentrations associated with greater altitudes, mountain forests may be particularly sensitive to global warming and increased atmospheric CO₂. Moreover, the upper treeline is probably the most stressful location within these forests, possibly providing an early bellwether of forest response. Most treeline studies of the past century, as well as recently, have correlated temperatures with the altitudinal limits observed for treelines. In contrast, investigations on pre-establishment seedlings, the most vulnerable life stage of most tree species, are rare. There appears to be specific microclimatic factors dictated by wind and sky exposure that limit seedling survival, and also generate the distorted tree forms commonly observed at treeline. Seedling survival appears critical for creating the biological facilitation of microclimate at the community level which is necessary for the growth of seedlings to normal tree stature, forming new subalpine forest at a higher altitude.     

Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Vernal Pool Ecosystems and Endemic Branchiopods

This study evaluated the hydrologic sensitivity of vernal pool ecosystems in the Central Valley of California to climatic changes projected for 2100. A vernal pool water-balance model was used to evaluate rain-fed vernal pools at four locations under future conditions projected by two contrasting global climate models. The potential for change in the duration of continuous inundation, frequency of reproductively suitable inundation events, and the seasonal distribution of inundation was quantified. The potential impact of hydrologic changes varied by species and by location. Three scales of response were identified: (a) At the regional scale, pools in the middle of the Central Valley near Merced were the most responsive to climatic changes. (b) At the local scale, smaller, shallower pools had the greatest potential to change the distribution of reproductively suitable habitat available to branchiopods. (c) At the individual pool scale, changes in precipitation will dominate changes in temperature, resulting in relatively linear responses in the duration of inundation. The ecological impact of these changes will be determined by a balance between the increasing suitability of vernal pools for branchiopod predators and the hydrologic improvement of currently marginal habitats.     

Safeguarding Ecosystem Services: A Methodological Framework to Buffer the Joint Effect of Habitat Configuration and Climate Change

Ecosystem services provided by mobile agents are increasingly threatened by the loss and modification of natural habitats and by climate change, risking the maintenance of biodiversity, ecosystem functions, and human welfare. Research oriented towards a better understanding of the joint effects of land use and climate change over the provision of specific ecosystem services is therefore essential to safeguard such services. Here we propose a methodological framework, which integrates species distribution forecasts and graph theory to identify key conservation areas, which if protected or restored could improve habitat connectivity and safeguard ecosystem services. We applied the proposed framework to the provision of pollination services by a tropical stingless bee (Melipona quadrifasciata), a key pollinator of native flora from the Brazilian Atlantic Forest and important agricultural crops. Based on the current distribution of this bee and that of the plant species used to feed and nest, we projected the joint distribution of bees and plants in the future, considering a moderate climate change scenario (following IPPC). We then used this information, the bee’s flight range, and the current mapping of Atlantic Forest remnants to infer habitat suitability and quantify local and regional habitat connectivity for 2030, 2050 and 2080. Our results revealed north to south and coastal to inland shifts in the pollinator distribution during the next 70 years. Current and future connectivity maps unraveled the most important corridors, which if protected or restored, could facilitate the dispersal and establishment of bees during distribution shifts. Our results also suggest that coffee plantations from eastern São Paulo and southern Minas Gerais States could suffer a pollinator deficit in the future, whereas pollination services seem to be secured in southern Brazil. Landowners and governmental agencies could use this information to implement new land use schemes. Overall, our proposed methodological framework could help design novel conservational and agricultural practices that can be crucial to conserve ecosystem services by buffering the joint effect of habitat configuration and climate change.     

Climate Analysis of Endemic Species-A Novel Method for Quantitative Analysis of Global Climate Change Since Tertiary

There are many extant endemic plants in China, which were widely distributed in the North Hemisphere during Tertiary. The global cooling during the Tertiary caused a series of narrow distribution regions of the plants. Quaternary glaciation invaded most regions of North America and Eurasia where severe destruction was imposed onto vegetation. However, such destruction was lessened in China largely because of specific topographic and geographical and obviously, a number of other conditions accounted for an unusual refugee camp for the relics of plants in China, among which lots of endemic taxa exist. Recently, Chinese endemic species, such as Metaseqouia, Eucommia , have been employed to conduct multi-disciplinary comprehensive studies so as to analyze Tertiary climate changes quantitatively. Meanwhile, a rigorous method, i.e. climate analysis of endemic species (CAES) has come to maturation. This method is characteristic of some generality because it is supposed to be applicable to the endemic species in other regions of the world. CAES is involved in the following aspects: 1. Conduct multidisciplinary studies on living and fossil species of endemic plants and trace their evolutionary courses. 2. Compare fossil species with living one and clarify which is the nearest living relative (NLR) to fossil counterpart. 3. Fossils and their living counterparts (NLR) are supposed to have similar ecological requirements to meet their life cycles. 4. Investigate the geographic distribution of living and fossil plants within the same taxa and ascertain the dynamic changes of their distributions in geological age. 5. Analyze climate factors in the distribution of specific endemic taxa and obtain the data of climatic characters which are suitable for reconstruction of paleoclimate where fossil counterparts lived. 6. Further study the physio-ecology of living species and determinate paleoclimate where fossil counterparts lived. 7. Integrate analysis of the data from steps 4, 5 and 6, and quantitatively reconstruct the climate where fossil and living plants survive.     

Climate Change Sensitivity Index for Pacific Salmon Habitat in Southeast Alaska

Global climate change may become one of the most pressing challenges to Pacific Salmon conservation and management for southeast Alaska in the 21^st Century. Predicted hydrologic change associated with climate change will likely challenge the ability of specific stocks to adapt to new flow regimes and resulting shifts in spawning and rearing habitats. Current research suggests egg-to-fry survival may be one of the most important freshwater limiting factors in Pacific Salmon''s northern range due to more frequent flooding events predicted to scour eggs from mobile spawning substrates. A watershed-scale hydroclimatic sensitivity index was developed to map this hypothesis with an historical stream gauge station dataset and monthly multiple regression-based discharge models. The relative change from present to future watershed conditions predicted for the spawning and incubation period (September to March) was quantified using an ensemble global climate model average (ECHAM5, HadCM3, and CGCM3.1) and three global greenhouse gas emission scenarios (B1, A1B, and A2) projected to the year 2080. The models showed the region''s diverse physiography and climatology resulted in a relatively predictable pattern of change: northern mainland and steeper, snow-fed mountainous watersheds exhibited the greatest increases in discharge, an earlier spring melt, and a transition into rain-fed hydrologic patterns. Predicted streamflow increases for all watersheds ranged from approximately 1-fold to 3-fold for the spawning and incubation period, with increased peak flows in the spring and fall. The hydroclimatic sensitivity index was then combined with an index of currently mapped salmon habitat and species diversity to develop a research and conservation priority matrix, highlighting potentially vulnerable to resilient high-value watersheds. The resulting matrix and observed trends are put forth as a framework to prioritize long-term monitoring plans, mitigation experiments, and finer-scale climate impact and adaptation studies.     

Effects of Climate Change on Birds

2010, Oxford University Press, Great Clarendon Street, Oxford OX2 6DP, UK

344 pages, hardcover or paperback, 75 black-and-white illustrations, and a four-page color plate section

ISBN 978-0-19-956974-8 (hardcover), 978-0-19-956975-5 (softcover). Price R575     

Investigation of Climate Change Impact on Water Resources for an Alpine Basin in Northern Italy: Implications for Evapotranspiration Modeling Complexity

Assessing the future effects of climate change on water availability requires an understanding of how precipitation and evapotranspiration rates will respond to changes in atmospheric forcing. Use of simplified hydrological models is required beacause of lack of meteorological forcings with the high space and time resolutions required to model hydrological processes in mountains river basins, and the necessity of reducing the computational costs. The main objective of this study was to quantify the differences between a simplified hydrological model, which uses only precipitation and temperature to compute the hydrological balance when simulating the impact of climate change, and an enhanced version of the model, which solves the energy balance to compute the actual evapotranspiration. For the meteorological forcing of future scenario, at-site bias-corrected time series based on two regional climate models were used. A quantile-based error-correction approach was used to downscale the regional climate model simulations to a point scale and to reduce its error characteristics. The study shows that a simple temperature-based approach for computing the evapotranspiration is sufficiently accurate for performing hydrological impact investigations of climate change for the Alpine river basin which was studied.     

Public Support for Conserving Bird Species Runs Counter to Climate Change Impacts on Their Distributions

There is increasing evidence that global climate change will alter the spatiotemporal occurrences and abundances of many species at continental scales. This will have implications for efficient conservation of biodiversity. We investigate if the general public in Denmark are willing to pay for the preservation of birds potentially immigrating and establishing breeding populations due to climate change to the same extent that they are for native species populations currently breeding in Denmark, but potentially emigrating due to climate change. We find that Danish citizens are willing to pay much more for the conservation of birds currently native to Denmark, than for bird species moving into the country – even when they are informed about the potential range shifts associated with climate change. The only exception is when immigrating species populations are under pressure at European level. Furthermore, people believing climate change to be man-made and people more knowledgeable about birds tended to have higher WTP for conservation of native species, relative to other people, whereas their preferences for conserving immigrant species generally resembled those of other people. Conservation investments rely heavily on public funding and hence on public support. Our results suggest that cross-country coordination of conservation efforts under climate change will be challenging in terms of achieving an appropriate balance between cost-effectiveness in adaptation and the concerns of a general public who seem mostly worried about protecting currently-native species.     

Climate Tolerances and Habitat Requirements Jointly Shape the Elevational Distribution of the American Pika (Ochotona princeps), with Implications for Climate Change Effects

Some of the most compelling examples of ecological responses to climate change are elevational range shifts of individual species, which have been observed throughout the world. A growing body of evidence, however, suggests substantial mediation of simple range shifts due to climate change by other limiting factors. Understanding limiting factors for a species within different contexts, therefore, is critical for predicting responses to climate change. The American pika (Ochotona princeps) is an ideal species for investigating distributions in relation to climate because of their unusual and well-understood natural history as well as observed shifts to higher elevation in parts of their range. We tested three hypotheses for the climatic or habitat characteristics that may limit pika presence and abundance: summer heat, winter snowpack, and forage availability. We performed these tests using an index of pika abundance gathered in a region where environmental influences on pika distribution have not been well-characterized. We estimated relative pika abundance via scat surveys and quantified climatic and habitat characteristics across two North-Central Rocky Mountain Ranges, the Wind River and Bighorn ranges in Wyoming, USA. Pika scat density was highest at mid-elevations and increased linearly with forage availability in both ranges. Scat density also increased with temperatures conducive to forage plant growth, and showed a unimodal relationship with the number of days below -5°C, which is modulated by insulating snowpack. Our results provide support for both the forage availability and winter snowpack hypotheses. Especially in montane systems, considering the context-dependent nature of climate effects across regions and elevations as well as interactions between climatic and other critical habitat characteristics, will be essential for predicting future species distributions.     

Potential Climate Change Effects on the Habitat of Antarctic Krill in the Weddell Quadrant of the Southern Ocean

Antarctic krill is a cold water species, an increasingly important fishery resource and a major prey item for many fish, birds and mammals in the Southern Ocean. The fishery and the summer foraging sites of many of these predators are concentrated between 0° and 90°W. Parts of this quadrant have experienced recent localised sea surface warming of up to 0.2°C per decade, and projections suggest that further widespread warming of 0.27° to 1.08°C will occur by the late 21^st century. We assessed the potential influence of this projected warming on Antarctic krill habitat with a statistical model that links growth to temperature and chlorophyll concentration. The results divide the quadrant into two zones: a band around the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in which habitat quality is particularly vulnerable to warming, and a southern area which is relatively insensitive. Our analysis suggests that the direct effects of warming could reduce the area of growth habitat by up to 20%. The reduction in growth habitat within the range of predators, such as Antarctic fur seals, that forage from breeding sites on South Georgia could be up to 55%, and the habitat’s ability to support Antarctic krill biomass production within this range could be reduced by up to 68%. Sensitivity analysis suggests that the effects of a 50% change in summer chlorophyll concentration could be more significant than the direct effects of warming. A reduction in primary production could lead to further habitat degradation but, even if chlorophyll increased by 50%, projected warming would still cause some degradation of the habitat accessible to predators. While there is considerable uncertainty in these projections, they suggest that future climate change could have a significant negative effect on Antarctic krill growth habitat and, consequently, on Southern Ocean biodiversity and ecosystem services.     

Habitat Availability Is a More Plausible Explanation than Insecticide Acute Toxicity for U.S. Grassland Bird Species Declines

Grassland bird species have experienced substantial declines in North America. These declines have been largely attributed to habitat loss and degradation, especially from agricultural practices and intensification (the habitat-availability hypothesis). A recent analysis of North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) “grassland breeding” bird trends reported the surprising conclusion that insecticide acute toxicity was a better correlate of grassland bird declines in North America from 1980–2003 (the insecticide-acute-toxicity hypothesis) than was habitat loss through agricultural intensification. In this paper we reached the opposite conclusion. We used an alternative statistical approach with additional habitat covariates to analyze the same grassland bird trends over the same time frame. Grassland bird trends were positively associated with increases in area of Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) lands and cropland used as pasture, whereas the effect of insecticide acute toxicity on bird trends was uncertain. Our models suggested that acute insecticide risk potentially has a detrimental effect on grassland bird trends, but models representing the habitat-availability hypothesis were 1.3–21.0 times better supported than models representing the insecticide-acute-toxicity hypothesis. Based on point estimates of effect sizes, CRP area and agricultural intensification had approximately 3.6 and 1.6 times more effect on grassland bird trends than lethal insecticide risk, respectively. Our findings suggest that preserving remaining grasslands is crucial to conserving grassland bird populations. The amount of grassland that has been lost in North America since 1980 is well documented, continuing, and staggering whereas insecticide use greatly declined prior to the 1990s. Grassland birds will likely benefit from the de-intensification of agricultural practices and the interspersion of pastures, Conservation Reserve Program lands, rangelands and other grassland habitats into existing agricultural landscapes.     

Climate Change Driving Widespread Loss of Coastal Forested Wetlands Throughout the North American Coastal Plain

Ecosystems - Coastal forested wetlands support many endemic species, sequester substantial carbon stocks, and have been reduced in extent due to historic drainage and agricultural expansion. Many...     

Rapid Response of a Marine Mammal Species to Holocene Climate and Habitat Change

Environmental change drives demographic and evolutionary processes that determine diversity within and among species. Tracking these processes during periods of change reveals mechanisms for the establishment of populations and provides predictive data on response to potential future impacts, including those caused by anthropogenic climate change. Here we show how a highly mobile marine species responded to the gain and loss of new breeding habitat. Southern elephant seal, Mirounga leonina, remains were found along the Victoria Land Coast (VLC) in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, 2,500 km from the nearest extant breeding site on Macquarie Island (MQ). This habitat was released after retreat of the grounded ice sheet in the Ross Sea Embayment 7,500–8,000 cal YBP, and is within the range of modern foraging excursions from the MQ colony. Using ancient mtDNA and coalescent models, we tracked the population dynamics of the now extinct VLC colony and the connectivity between this and extant breeding sites. We found a clear expansion signal in the VLC population ~8,000 YBP, followed by directional migration away from VLC and the loss of diversity at ~1,000 YBP, when sea ice is thought to have expanded. Our data suggest that VLC seals came initially from MQ and that some returned there once the VLC habitat was lost, ~7,000 years later. We track the founder-extinction dynamics of a population from inception to extinction in the context of Holocene climate change and present evidence that an unexpectedly diverse, differentiated breeding population was founded from a distant source population soon after habitat became available.     

气候变化情景下物种适宜生境预测研究进展

气候变化能够引起物种分布范围、生物物候等一系列生态现象和过程的变化,进而加速物种灭绝的速率。气候变化被认为是21世纪全球生物多样性面临的最主要威胁之一,将给未来的生物多样性保护工作带来严峻的挑战。利用物种分布模型预测气候变化情景下物种适宜生境的变化正成为当前的研究热点。本研究总结目前气候变化情景下物种适宜生境预测的最新方法及取得的主要成果。在研究方法上,多物种分布模型、多气候情景基础上的集合预测方法正成为目前研究采用的主要手段;在研究结果上,未来气候变化将有可能导致物种适宜生境面积减少,范围向高纬度、高海拔地区移动。最后本研究指出目前气候变化情景下物种适宜生境预测研究中存在的主要不足及今后的发展方向。