Climate change and coral reefs: Trojan horse or false prophecy?

Maynard et al. (Coral Reefs 27:745–749, 2008a) claim that much of the concern about the impacts of climate change on coral reefs has been “based on essentially untested assumptions regarding reefs and their capacity to cope with future climate change”. If correct, this claim has important implications for whether or not climate change represents the largest long-term threat to the sustainability of coral reefs, especially given their ad hominem argument that many coral reef scientists are guilty of “popularising worst-case scenarios” at the expense of truth. This article looks critically at the claims made by Maynard et al. (Coral Reefs 27:745–749, 2008a) and comes to a very different conclusion, with the thrust and veracity of their argument being called into question. Contrary to the fears of Grigg (Coral Reefs 11:183–186, 1992), who originally made reference to the Cassandra syndrome due to his concern about the sensationalisation of science, the proposition that coral reefs face enormous challenges from climate change and ocean acidification has and is being established through “careful experimentation, long-term monitoring and objective interpretation”. While this is reassuring, coral reef ecosystems continue to face major challenges from ocean warming and acidification. Given this, it is an imperative that scientists continue to maintain the rigour of their research and to communicate their conclusions as widely and clearly as possible. Given the shortage of time and the magnitude of the problem, there is little time to spare.     

Trophic levels and trophic dynamics: A consensus emerging?

There are three clearly different views on trophic levels. The systems-ecological tradition sees trophic levels as relatively discrete and well-defined units whose interactions cannot be derived from interactions between constituent populations. The reductionist population-ecological tradition sees trophic levels as inappropriate abstractions that cannot be used in formulating predictive theories. The tradition of trophic dynamics sees the first three trophic levels of autotroph-based ecosystems as reasonable abstractions, useful in formulating predictive theories, but devoid of properties that could not be directly extrapolated from those of constituent populations. Recent literature suggests that the first two schools are converging towards the viewpoints of the third, though the latter has also been modified by the interaction.     

Avian body size changes and climate change: warming or increasing variability?

There has been a growing interest in whether established ecogeographical patterns, such as Bergmann's rule, explain changes in animal morphology related to climate change. Bergmann's rule has often been used to predict that body size will decrease as the climate warms, but the predictions about how body size will change are critically dependent on the mechanistic explanation behind the rule. To investigate change in avian body size in western North America, we used two long‐term banding data sets from central California, USA; the data spanned 40 years (1971–2010) at one site and 27 years (1983–2009) at the other. We found that wing length of birds captured at both sites has been steadily increasing at a rate of 0.024–0.084% per year. Although changes in body mass were not always significant, when they were, the trend was positive and the magnitudes of significant trends were similar to those for wing length (0.040–0.112% per year). There was no clear difference between the rates of change of long‐distance vs. short‐distance migrants or between birds that bred locally compared to those that bred to the north of the sites. Previous studies from other regions of the world have documented decreases in avian body size and have used Bergmann's rule and increases in mean temperature to explain these shifts. Because our results do not support this pattern, we propose that rather than responding to increasing mean temperatures, avian body size in central California may be influenced by changing climatic variability or changes in primary productivity. More information on regional variation in the rates of avian body size change will be needed to test these hypotheses.     

Climate change and plant invasions: restoration opportunities ahead?

Rather than simply enhancing invasion risk, climate change may also reduce invasive plant competitiveness if conditions become climatically unsuitable. Using bioclimatic envelope modeling, we show that climate change could result in both range expansion and contraction for five widespread and dominant invasive plants in the western United States. Yellow starthistle ( Centaurea solstitialis ) and tamarisk ( Tamarix spp.) are likely to expand with climate change. Cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum ) and spotted knapweed ( Centaurea biebersteinii ) are likely to shift in range, leading to both expansion and contraction. Leafy spurge ( Euphorbia esula ) is likely to contract. The retreat of once-intractable invasive species could create restoration opportunities across millions of hectares. Identifying and establishing native or novel species in places where invasive species contract will pose a considerable challenge for ecologists and land managers. This challenge must be addressed before other undesirable species invade and eliminate restoration opportunities.     

Hot topic or hot air? Climate change and malaria resurgence in East African highlands

Climate has a significant impact on malaria incidence and we have predicted that forecast climate changes might cause some modifications to the present global distribution of malaria close to its present boundaries. However, it is quite another matter to attribute recent resurgences of malaria in the highlands of East Africa to climate change. Analyses of malaria time-series at such sites have shown that malaria incidence has increased in the absence of co-varying changes in climate. We find the widespread increase in resistance of the malaria parasite to drugs and the decrease in vector control activities to be more likely driving forces behind the malaria resurgence.     

Climate change: is the dark Soay sheep endangered?

It was recently reported that the proportion of dark-coloured Soay sheep (Ovis aries) in the Hebrides has decreased, despite the fact that dark sheep tend to be larger than lighter sheep, and there exists a selective advantage to large body size. It was concluded that an apparent genetic linkage between loci for the coat colour polymorphism and loci with antagonistic effects on body size explained the decrease. Those results explain why the proportion of dark animals is not increasing, but not why it is decreasing. Between 1985 and 2005 there was a significant increase in mean ambient temperature near the islands. We suggest that, while in the past a dark coat has offset the metabolic costs of thermoregulation by absorbing solar radiation, the selective advantage of a dark coat may be waning as the climate warms in the North Atlantic. In parallel, Bergman''s rule may be operating, reducing the selective advantage of large body size in the cold. Either or both of these mechanisms can explain the decrease in the proportion of dark-coloured larger sheep in this population in which smaller (and light-coloured) sheep should be favoured by their lower gross energy demand. If environmental effects are the cause of the decline, then we can expect the proportion of dark-coloured Soay sheep to decrease further.     

Richness–productivity relationships between trophic levels in a detritus-based system: significance of abundance and trophic linkage

Most theoretical and empirical studies of productivity–species richness relationships fail to consider linkages among trophic levels. We quantified productivity–richness relationships in detritus-based, water-filled tree-hole communities for two trophic levels: invertebrate consumers and the protozoans on which they feed. By analogy to theory for biomass partitioning among trophic levels, we predicted that consumer control would result in richness of protozoans in the lower trophic level being unaffected by increases in productivity, whereas richness of invertebrate consumers would increase with productivity. Our data were consistent with this prediction: consumer richness increased linearly, but protozoan richness was unrelated to changes in productivity. The productivity–richness relationships for all taxa combined were not necessarily consistent with relationships within each trophic level. We used path analysis to investigate the mechanisms that may produce the observed responses of trophic levels to changes in productivity. We tested the importance of the direct effect of productivity on richness and the indirect effect of productivity mediated by effects on total abundance. For protozoans, only direct effects of productivity on richness were important, but both direct and indirect effects of productivity on richness were important for invertebrates. Protozoan richness was strongly affected by top-down impacts of abundance of invertebrates. These results are consistent with theory on biomass partitioning among trophic levels and suggest a strong link between richness and abundance within and between trophic levels. Understanding how trophic level interactions determine productivity–richness relationships will likely be necessary in order for us to achieve a comprehensive understanding of the determinants of diversity. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Climate change and vector-borne diseases: what are the implications for public health research and policy?

Vector-borne diseases continue to contribute significantly to the global burden of disease, and cause epidemics that disrupt health security and cause wider socioeconomic impacts around the world. All are sensitive in different ways to weather and climate conditions, so that the ongoing trends of increasing temperature and more variable weather threaten to undermine recent global progress against these diseases. Here, we review the current state of the global public health effort to address this challenge, and outline related initiatives by the World Health Organization (WHO) and its partners. Much of the debate to date has centred on attribution of past changes in disease rates to climate change, and the use of scenario-based models to project future changes in risk for specific diseases. While these can give useful indications, the unavoidable uncertainty in such analyses, and contingency on other socioeconomic and public health determinants in the past or future, limit their utility as decision-support tools. For operational health agencies, the most pressing need is the strengthening of current disease control efforts to bring down current disease rates and manage short-term climate risks, which will, in turn, increase resilience to long-term climate change. The WHO and partner agencies are working through a range of programmes to (i) ensure political support and financial investment in preventive and curative interventions to bring down current disease burdens; (ii) promote a comprehensive approach to climate risk management; (iii) support applied research, through definition of global and regional research agendas, and targeted research initiatives on priority diseases and population groups.     

Climate change and elevational diversity capacity: do weedy species take up the slack?

Climate change leads to species range shifts and consequently to changes in diversity. For many systems, increases in diversity capacity have been forecast, with spare capacity to be taken up by a pool of weedy species moved around by humans. Few tests of this hypothesis have been undertaken, and in many temperate systems, climate change impacts may be confounded by simultaneous increases in human-related disturbance, which also promote weedy species. Areas to which weedy species are being introduced, but with little human disturbance, are therefore ideal for testing the idea. We make predictions about how such diversity capacity increases play out across elevational gradients in non-water-limited systems. Then, using modern and historical data on the elevational range of indigenous and naturalized alien vascular plant species from the relatively undisturbed sub-Antarctic Marion Island, we show that alien species have contributed significantly to filling available diversity capacity and that increases in energy availability rather than disturbance are the probable underlying cause.     

Climate change and maize yield in southern Africa: what can farm management do?

There is concern that food insecurity will increase in southern Africa due to climate change. We quantified the response of maize yield to projected climate change and to three key management options – planting date, fertilizer use and cultivar choice – using the crop simulation model, agricultural production systems simulator (APSIM), at two contrasting sites in Zimbabwe. Three climate periods up to 2100 were selected to cover both near‐ and long‐term climates. Future climate data under two radiative forcing scenarios were generated from five global circulation models. The temperature is projected to increase significantly in Zimbabwe by 2100 with no significant change in mean annual total rainfall. When planting before mid‐December with a high fertilizer rate, the simulated average grain yield for all three maize cultivars declined by 13% for the periods 2010–2039 and 2040–2069 and by 20% for 2070–2099 compared with the baseline climate, under low radiative forcing. Larger declines in yield of up to 32% were predicted for 2070–2099 with high radiative forcing. Despite differences in annual rainfall, similar trends in yield changes were observed for the two sites studied, Hwedza and Makoni. The yield response to delay in planting was nonlinear. Fertilizer increased yield significantly under both baseline and future climates. The response of maize to mineral nitrogen decreased with progressing climate change, implying a decrease in the optimal fertilizer rate in the future. Our results suggest that in the near future, improved crop and soil fertility management will remain important for enhanced maize yield. Towards the end of the 21st century, however, none of the farm management options tested in the study can avoid large yield losses in southern Africa due to climate change. There is a need to transform the current cropping systems of southern Africa to offset the negative impacts of climate change.     

Plant–pollinator interactions and phenological change: what can we learn about climate impacts from experiments and observations?

Climate change can affect plant–pollinator interactions in a variety of ways, but much of the research attention has focused on whether independent shifts in phenology will alter temporal overlap between plants and pollinators. Here I review the research on plant–pollinator mismatch, assessing the potential for observational and experimental approaches to address particular aspects of the problem. Recent, primarily observational studies suggest that phenologies of co‐occurring plants and pollinators tend to respond similarly to environmental cues, but that nevertheless, certain pairs of interacting species are showing independent shifts in phenology. Only in a few cases, however, have these independent shifts been shown to affect population vital rates (specifically, seed production by plants) but this largely reflects a lack of research. Compared to the few long‐term studies of pollination in natural plant populations, experimental manipulations of phenology have yielded relatively optimistic conclusions about effects of phenological shifts on plant reproduction, and I discuss how issues of scale and frequency‐dependence in pollinator behaviour affect the interpretation of these ‘temporal transplant’ experiments. Comparable research on the impacts of mismatch on pollinator populations is so far lacking, but both observational studies and focused experiments have the potential to improve our forecasts of pollinator responses to changing phenologies. Finally, while there is now evidence that plant–pollinator mismatch can affect seed production by plants, it is still unclear whether this phenological impact will be the primary way in which climate change affects plant–pollinator interactions. It would be useful to test the direct effects of changing climate on pollinator population persistence, and to compare the importance of phenological mismatch with other threats to pollination.     

Nonlinear flowering responses to climate: are species approaching their limits of phenological change?

Many alpine and subalpine plant species exhibit phenological advancements in association with earlier snowmelt. While the phenology of some plant species does not advance beyond a threshold snowmelt date, the prevalence of such threshold phenological responses within plant communities is largely unknown. We therefore examined the shape of flowering phenology responses (linear versus nonlinear) to climate using two long-term datasets from plant communities in snow-dominated environments: Gothic, CO, USA (1974–2011) and Zackenberg, Greenland (1996–2011). For a total of 64 species, we determined whether a linear or nonlinear regression model best explained interannual variation in flowering phenology in response to increasing temperatures and advancing snowmelt dates. The most common nonlinear trend was for species to flower earlier as snowmelt advanced, with either no change or a slower rate of change when snowmelt was early (average 20% of cases). By contrast, some species advanced their flowering at a faster rate over the warmest temperatures relative to cooler temperatures (average 5% of cases). Thus, some species seem to be approaching their limits of phenological change in response to snowmelt but not temperature. Such phenological thresholds could either be a result of minimum springtime photoperiod cues for flowering or a slower rate of adaptive change in flowering time relative to changing climatic conditions.     

Dynamics and trophic interactions of small rodents: landscape or regional effects on spatial variation?

Geographically varying rodent dynamics may be due to specific landscape effects or to regional variation. Two common vole species (Clethrionomys glareolus and Microtus agrestis), their main predators and their impact on some important food items were monitored in Sweden on forest clearcuts in two different landscape types, situated in two different regions with different climatic conditions. Censuses, with 10-16 clearcuts in each landscape and both landscapes in the two regions, were designed to permit analyses of variance of the effects of landscape composition and region on dynamics and species interactions. Region had a far greater influence than landscape on vole numbers, on the proportions of generalist and specialist predators and on the winter browsing of bark of indigenous and experimental woody plants as well on seed consumption in experimental supplies. The findings indicated an influence of the depth and quality of the snow cover on the predation rates by generalist and specialist predators. However, there were also clear signs of food limitation in the snow-rich areas. Such areas had fewer generalist predators, which probably meant less directly density-dependent predation. Thus, lack of high-quality food may put a brake on population growth in climatically harsh regions, permitting increasing populations of specialist predators such as small mustelids to subsequently over-utilise their main prey and potentially cause prolonged low densities. Snow conditions may affect numbers and interactions both within habitats, landscapes and regions. Thus, to more fully understand rodent dynamics, small-scale movements and interactions of individuals in relation to the main large-scale factor(s) of various regions need to be examined.     

Do multivariate analyses incorporating changes in pattern across taxonomic levels reveal anthropogenic stress in Mediterranean lagoons?

It is accepted that observed patterns in community structure change as analyses are carried out at higher taxonomic levels. Univariate analyses which incorporate higher taxonomic structure within assemblages have been shown to be informative. In this paper we suggest ways in which changes in multivariate relationships at higher taxonomic levels and associated with higher taxonomic/phylogenetic structure of the community may be incorporated into multivariate analyses, an aspect never occurred before in this type of analysis. Four approaches, namely: biodiversity MDS (bdMDS), number of taxa MDS (ntMDS), delta MDS (δMDS) and lambda MDS (λMDS), are proposed, and applied to theoretical data as well as to data collected from the literature on the Mediterranean lagoonal environment. Results show that these approaches have the capacity to distinguish severely impacted lagoons from naturally disturbed ones, although in practice the simplest method (ntMDS) was the most successful. Analyses based on the most abundant groups (polychaetes, molluscs, crustaceans) did not always match analyses based on the entire macrofauna, mirroring the performance of taxonomic distinctness indices in the Mediterranean lagoons. The important characteristics of the approaches introduced, as well as potential criticisms are provided. Application of these techniques on smaller scales and to other habitats, is suggested prior to their wider use in the region.     

Climate change and perishable food hoards of an avian predator: Is the freezer still working?

Changing climate can modify predator–prey interactions and induce declines or local extinctions of species due to reductions in food availability. Species hoarding perishable food for overwinter survival, like predators, are predicted to be particularly susceptible to increasing temperatures. We analysed the influence of autumn and winter weather, and abundance of main prey (voles), on the food‐hoarding behaviour of a generalist predator, the Eurasian pygmy owl (Glaucidium passerinum), across 16 years in Finland. Fewer freeze–thaw events in early autumn delayed the initiation of food hoarding. Pygmy owls consumed more hoarded food with more frequent freeze–thaw events and deeper snow cover in autumn and in winter, and lower precipitation in winter. In autumn, the rotting of food hoards increased with precipitation. Hoards already present in early autumn were much more likely to rot than the ones initiated in late autumn. Rotten food hoards were used more in years of low food abundance than in years of high food abundance. Having rotten food hoards in autumn resulted in a lower future recapture probability of female owls. These results indicate that pygmy owls might be partly able to adapt to climate change by delaying food hoarding, but changes in the snow cover, precipitation and frequency of freeze–thaw events might impair their foraging and ultimately decrease local overwinter survival. Long‐term trends and future predictions, therefore, suggest that impacts of climate change on wintering food‐hoarding species could be substantial, because their ‘freezers’ may no longer work properly. Altered usability and poorer quality of hoarded food may further modify the foraging needs of food‐hoarding predators and thus their overall predation pressure on prey species. This raises concerns about the impacts of climate change on boreal food webs, in which ecological interactions have evolved under cold winter conditions.     

Climate Change or Land Use Dynamics: Do We Know What Climate Change Indicators Indicate?

Different components of global change can have interacting effects on biodiversity and this may influence our ability to detect the specific consequences of climate change through biodiversity indicators. Here, we analyze whether climate change indicators can be affected by land use dynamics that are not directly determined by climate change. To this aim, we analyzed three community-level indicators of climate change impacts that are based on the optimal thermal environment and average latitude of the distribution of bird species present at local communities. We used multiple regression models to relate the variation in climate change indicators to: i) environmental temperature; and ii) three landscape gradients reflecting important current land use change processes (land abandonment, fire impacts and urbanization), all of them having forest areas at their positive extremes. We found that, with few exceptions, landscape gradients determined the figures of climate change indicators as strongly as temperature. Bird communities in forest habitats had colder-dwelling bird species with more northern distributions than farmland, burnt or urban areas. Our results show that land use changes can reverse, hide or exacerbate our perception of climate change impacts when measured through community-level climate change indicators. We stress the need of an explicit incorporation of the interactions between climate change and land use dynamics to understand what are current climate change indicators indicating and be able to isolate real climate change impacts.     

Are whooping cranes destined for extinction? Climate change imperils recruitment and population growth

Identifying climatic drivers of an animal population's vital rates and locating where they operate steers conservation efforts to optimize species recovery. The population growth of endangered whooping cranes (Grus americana) hinges on juvenile recruitment. Therefore, we identify climatic drivers (solar activity [sunspots] and weather) of whooping crane recruitment throughout the species’ life cycle (breeding, migration, wintering). Our method uses a repeated cross‐validated absolute shrinkage and selection operator approach to identify drivers of recruitment. We model effects of climate change on those drivers to predict whooping crane population growth given alternative scenarios of climate change and solar activity. Years with fewer sunspots indicated greater recruitment. Increased precipitation during autumn migration signified less recruitment. On the breeding grounds, fewer days below freezing during winter and more precipitation during breeding suggested less recruitment. We predicted whooping crane recruitment and population growth may fall below long‐term averages during all solar cycles when atmospheric CO₂ concentration increases, as expected, to 500 ppm by 2050. Species recovery during a typical solar cycle with 500 ppm may require eight times longer than conditions without climate change and the chance of population decline increases to 31%. Although this whooping crane population is growing and may appear secure, long‐term threats imposed by climate change and increased solar activity may jeopardize its persistence. Weather on the breeding grounds likely affects recruitment through hydrological processes and predation risk, whereas precipitation during autumn migration may influence juvenile mortality. Mitigating threats or abating climate change should occur within ≈30 years or this wild population of whooping cranes may begin declining.     

Do phytoplankton communities correctly track trophic changes? An assessment using directly measured and palaeolimnological data

1. Measurements of total phosphorus (TP) concentrations since 1975 and a 50‐year time series of phytoplankton biovolume and species composition from Lake Mondsee (Austria) were combined with palaeolimnological information on diatom composition and reconstructed TP‐levels to describe the response of phytoplankton communities to changing nutrient conditions. 2. Four phases were identified in the long‐term record. Phase I was the pre‐eutrophication period characterised by TP‐levels of about 6 μg L^?1 and diatom dominance. Phase II began in 1966 with an increase in TP concentration followed by the invasion of Planktothrix rubescens in 1968, characterising mesotrophic conditions. Phase III, from 1976 to 1979, had the highest annual mean TP concentrations (up to 36 μg L^?1) and phytoplankton biovolumes (3.57 mm³ L^?1), although reductions in external nutrient loading started in 1974. Phases II and III saw an expansion of species characteristic of higher nutrient levels as reflected in the diatom stratigraphy. Oligotrophication (phase IV) began in 1980 when annual average TP concentration, Secchi depth and algal biovolume began to decline, accompanied by increasing concentrations of soluble reactive silica. 3. The period from 1981 to 1986 was characterised by asynchronous trends. Annual mean and maximum total phytoplankton biovolume initially continued to increase after TP concentration began to decline. Reductions in phytoplankton biovolume were delayed by about 5 years. Several phytoplankton species differed in the timing of their responses to changing nutrient conditions. For example, while P. rubescens declined concomitantly with the decline in TP concentration, other species indicative of higher phosphorus concentrations, such as Tabellaria flocculosa var. asterionelloides, tended to increase further. 4. These data therefore do not support the hypotheses that a reduction in TP concentration is accompanied by (i) an immediate decline in total phytoplankton biovolume and (ii) persistence of the species composition characterising the phytoplankton community before nutrient reduction.